‘Black Panther’ Reigns Supreme With $104M+: The Best Second Weekend Haul Ever Prior To Summer
Writethru after 3rd Update, Saturday AM: We knew earlier in the week that
Black Panther would crack the century mark at the B.O. in its second weekend, and that’s exactly what it’s doing with a current industry 3-day estimate of
$104.1M (-48%) after a $28.8M Friday. Don’t underestimate this Disney/Marvel release, it will only get bigger.
The broken records continually change, and at this time
Black Panther looks to rank as the third best second weekend ever behind
The Avengers’ $103M; the best-ever for a Marvel movie and the best sophomore session for any title in the pre-summer period beating Disney’s
Beauty and the Beast last year ($90.4M). The pic cracked past $300M Friday, and by Sunday will see a 10-day run of $396.05M.
On the upside,
Black Panther‘s awesome second frame continues to prove that event titles, when they’re groundbreaking and speak up to audiences rather than down, can perform even better in the off-season than they do in the summer. They can single-handedly defy the handicaps of winter weather and school calendars (ComScore reports that 15% K-12 are off, and only 2% colleges).
Part of Marvel’s secret sauce here is that they don’t see the titles that they pump out as merely ‘superhero’ or comic-book movies, but rather smart, genre-bending cinema. These hits can’t be built on the backs of fans alone.
At a Deadline screening for Logan back in December — a film that proved again last March following
Deadpool that R-rated comic book movies can actually rally at the box office — the pic’s director James Mangold made an excellent point: “I don’t think there is anything as the superhero genre, and if there is, it’s a pretty sucky genre,” said the director. “There’s fantasy films and heroic films like
Ben Hur,
The Dark Knight, the story of Jesus Christ and
Gladiator; all are stories about heroes.” Stick to a superhero formula, and you’ll yield a stagnant movie, and that’s exactly what
Black Panther specifically does not do. It’s more than a spy movie, more than a comic-book movie, and audiences are showing how much they love the freshness of this heroic movie with their wallets.
Black Panther‘s rays continue to shine brightly on social media as people leave the auditorium: The pic’s social media universe across Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and YouTube has jumped from 901M last weekend to 981M within five days per RelishMix. Last Thursday, daily YouTube views for the Ryan Coogler-directed movie were at 390K and they’ve now spiked to 575K daily views per day for each top video. After the record-breaking Twitter surge from 137k to 559k hashtags for #BlackPanther and @BlackPanthermovie last Friday, you’d expect to see a rapid taper during the week. But that’s not the case: While Saturday saw a total of 543K, that eased to 480K on Monday, and a daily 352K. “Remember activity over 100k is exceptional,” says RelishMix.
On the downside, the marketplace isn’t a boats-all-rise situation with wide entries getting slowed at the box office. Sorry, distribution heads: Just because your movie is opening within the tracking range, doesn’t mean it’s deemed a success.
Warner Bros.
New Line/Warner Bros.’
Game Night is earning
$15.1M in 2nd place (lower than what we saw last night) after $1M Thursday night, a $5.6M Friday, and a B+ CinemaScore which is toward the middle of its tracking range of $13M-$21M. That’s OK for this $37M-budgeted pic (before P&A), not fantastic, and an improvement both B.O. and audience grade-wise from Warner Bros.’ string of R-rated clunkers last year including
Fist Fight ($12.2M opening, B),
The House ($8.7M, B-) and Alcon’s
Father Figures ($3.3M, B-).
We hear
Game Night tested well, and as such Warner Bros. held several advance screenings, and ultimately received the blessing of Rotten Tomatoes critics (82% certified fresh) which is quite a feat when you have a comedy, because they can be vicious. “The convo surrounding
Game Night is fairly positive, mostly coming from those fans who have attended advanced screenings,” says RelishMix. “Those who have seen it early have described it as hilarious. Also, many have praised the fact that it features strong leads including Rachel McAdams and Jason Bateman. The plot has also been well praised as original in a time when many films aren’t seen that way by many moviegoers.” Women, who turned up at 56%, enjoyed
Game Night giving it a A-; it’s the over 25 crowd at 86% who are giving this a B+.
On the minus side, we hear that some insiders are grumbling about
Game Night‘s release date in the wake of
Black Panther.And then there’s the marketing campaign, with trailers that rivals have criticized as being more of a serious sell than funny. Then there’s those absurdist one sheets which are advertising game pieces with burglar masks instead of stars Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams. What’s that all about? Some will try to blame the sluggish environment for R-rated fare, however, it smells like New Line had something to work with here from the decent audience reaction and critical reviews. Says
Rolling Stone‘s Peter Travers, “Farce is a beast to get right in movies. The fact that
Game Night hits the mark more often than it hits a wall is cause for cheering.” Laughter is contagious, so let’s see if Saturday night pegs
Game Night toward a better end-game.
Paramount
Paramount/Skydance’s sci-fi-environmental auteur title
Annihilation from director Alex Garland is coming in at the low end of its tracking range with
$10.7M for the weekend in 4th place with $3.85M for today. Paramount continues to pay for the sins of the previous executive administration of the late Brad Grey and Vice Chairman Rob Moore. Grey had a predilection for auteur type films that could potentially be awards bait read
Arrival, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, mother!, Suburbiconand
Downsizing, but the previous regime overspent on them greatly and that’s why most of them have capsized at the box office. $68M for absurdist comedy
Downsizing? $30M for the gonzo thriller
mother!? Far too much for haughty, fringe, experimental fare.
One of the trickier aspects about Rotten Tomatoes is that its metric leans favorably toward auteurs and critics enjoyed
Annihilation at 87% certified fresh. When that’s the case, these scores don’t translate into great ticket sales. Reviewers enjoyed the fact that Garland stuck to his
Ex Machina styling, and didn’t sell out to Hollywood with a
Jurassic Park-type picture. However, the audience’s smacking it with a C CinemaScore means
Annihilation was too slow for them. Those between 18-24 gave
Annihilation its bests grade of a B, but they only repped 11% of the audience. Last weekend Paramount opted to trailer their best wares on
Black Panther, and that was
Mission: Impossible – Fallout. More males than females turned out for this women action movie, 60% to 40%. Both gave it a C.
Paramount Pictures
But wait, wasn’t
Arrival slow? How did that movie get away with that pace? We understand that its story of a mother’s anguish, coupled with its spiritual sensibility, is what spurred moviegoers to spend $100.5M on that pic, and of course there was the pic’s eight Oscar nominations including best picture (it won one for sound editing).
Paramount earnestly tried to sell this film on its greater attributes of being a largely female driven action film. Some will believe the pic faltered because of the whitewashing controversy it faced, i.e., Natalie Portman’s character was originally of Asian descent and Jennifer Jason Leigh’s character being Native American in Jeff VanderMeer’s
Southern Reach trilogy (details that weren’t revealed until the series’ second novel). While such controversial noise doesn’t typically impact the average moviegoers’ purchasing decision, studio marketing executives believe that when building a pic’s promotional momentum, it’s better to be controversy-free. Arguably, the whitewashing syndrome with
Ghost in the Shell was significantly louder and was more severe considering it’s a popular 30-year-old manga property and starred Marvel superstar Scarlett Johansson. In regards to
Annihilation, did moviegoers even know it was based on a book? VanderMeer himself didn’t raise any objections about the studio and filmmaker’s artistic license with the characters. Portman, Leigh and Garland weren’t even aware of the characters’ ethnic backgrounds as the first novel never delve into them. The pic’s drooping at the B.O. lies more in the fact that it’s a slow-paced, funky piece of specialty sci-fi cinema. The current administration is trying to get beyond these high-priced arthouse movies, and if there was no question about the pic’s risk,
Paramount would have never sold foreign to Netflix (sans China).
Orion’s $5M-teenage production
Every Day based on the David Levithan YA novel is coming in with
$3M. This label is dedicated to narrowly targeted audiences, with low digital-driven P&A spends (I hear this was around $8M). Should the film get to $10M at the domestic B.O. for them, it’s considered a high point as it triggers their MGM TV deals, which are some of the richest in the world. It’s an OK result for what the pic is. Those who showed up gave it a B+. It wasn’t the teenagers who gave this movie its best grades (under 18 at 54% of the crowd gave it a B+), but the middle-age folk 35-49 who repped 9% of Friday night moviegoers and graded
Every Day an A-.
Industry estimates for weekend of Feb. 23-25: — chart updating
1..)
Black Panther (DIS), 4,020 theaters (0) / $28.8M Fri (-62%) /3-day:
$104.1M (-48%)/Total:
$396M/Wk 2
2..)
Game Night (NL/WB), 3,488 theaters / $5.6m Fri (includes $1M previews)/3-day:
$15.1M /Wk 1
3..)
Peter Rabbit (SONY), 3,707 theaters (-18) / $2.8M Fri (-30%) /3-day:
$12.1M (-31%) /Total: $70.8M/Wk 3
4..)
Annihilation (PAR), 2,012 theaters / $3.85m Fri (includes $900k previews)/3-day:
$10.7M /Wk 1
5..)
Fifty Shades Freed (UNI), 3,265 theaters (-503) / $2.3M Fri (-59%)/3-day:
$6.9M(-60%)/Total: $89.5M/Wk 3
6..)
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 2,519 theaters (-281) / $1.3M Fri (-28%)/3-day:
$5.6M (-29%)/Total:$387.2M/ Wk 10
7..)
The 15:17 to Paris (WB), 2,752 theaters (-290) / $995K Fri (-52%)/3-day:
$3.54M(-53%)/Total: $32.1M/ Wk 3
8..)
The Greatest Showman (FOX), 1,601 theaters (-335) / $910K Fri (-31%) / 3-day:
$3.4M (-32%)/Total: $160.7M/Wk 10
9..)
Every Day (OR), 1,667 theaters / $1M Fri (includes $115k previews)/3-day:
$3M /Wk 1
10..)
Early Man (LG), 2,494 theaters / $353K Fri (-58%)/3-day:
$1.4M (-55%)/Total:
$6.5M/Wk 2
Notables:
Samson (PURE), 1,140 theaters (-109) / $258K Fri (-55%)/3-day:
$915K (-52%)/Total:
$3.67M/Wk 2
2nd Update, Friday 1:03PM: Right now industry estimates have
Black Panther at
$92M, which reps a 54% decline and falls between the second weekend declines of
The Avengers (-50% with $103M) and
Avengers: Age of Ultron (-59%, $77.7M). By the end of the weekend on this pace,
Black Panther will see a domestic running tally of $384M.
However, this is a movie that has continually defied expectations so we may see business grow by tonight. Remember, a bulk of the 18-24 crowd comes out for those 10PM or later shows, and Marvel movies get to this enormous size on repeat customers.
Black Panther‘s second Friday is at $25M, -67% because opening day was padded by Thursday night previews. Still, this is historic business for the second month of the year in which snow and ice exist in parts of the nation, despite a “heat” wave in the NorthEast.
New Line’s
Game Night is playing to a $6M opening day, and a weekend that’s between $16.5M-$18M. We’ll have a better idea tonight if word of mouth syncs with the critical heat on this R-rated movie.
Paramount’s
Annihilation is set to collect an estimated $3.5M today and $10M for the weekend, now at the lower end of its tracking.
Orion’s microbudget
Every Day after earning $115K from Thursday previews is looking at $1.1M today and $3.2M over three days.
1st Update, Friday 7:16AM: In the face of Disney/Marvel’s
Black Panther earning $14.2M alone yesterday for a running total that will cross $300M today, New Line/Warner Bros.’
Game Night and Paramount’s Alex Garland sci-fi environmental pic
Annihilation respectively pulled in $1M and $900K.
Annihilation was booked at 1,850 venues yesterday and will raise its theater count to 2,012 today.
Game Night will play in 3,488.
Game Night is projected between $13M-$21M while
Annihilation was pegged between $10M-$12M. The upside for them in a
Black Panther-dominated market? Both titles have awesome Rotten Tomatoes Scores with
Annihilation at 90% certified fresh and
Game Night at 83% certified fresh and that’s hopeful in regards to changing the minds of those moviegoers are pledge allegiance to RT.
Disney
These are good starts considering that T’Challa is expected to take in more than $104M in weekend two (it’s actually better for
Game Night considering how audiences have been like mules when it comes to R-rated comedies in the last year). However, last night has given rival studios to Disney hope that all boats will rise in a
Black Panther world. Through yesterday, he’s made close to $292M and he’ll be the fastest Mavel title to $300M in 8 days, beating
The Avengers’ 9 days.
Black Panther will tie with
Jurassic World and
Star Wars: The Last Jedi in regards to the number of days to $300M, which all rank second behind
Star Wars: The Force Awakens which cleared the three century mark in a record 5 days.
Paramount
In regards to comps to
Annihilation, there are films like
Life which made $800K on its first Thursday before posting a $4.4M Friday and $12.5M opening. There’s also
Arrival, which at a $1.45M Thursday yielded a $9.4M Friday and $24.1M three-day.
Annihilation cost a net of $40M before P&A. This is the second feature directorial by Oscar nominee Garland whose 2015 release
Ex Machina which was a notable sleeper on the arthouse circuit with $25.4M, becoming A24’s third highest release behind Oscar best picture winner
Moonlight ($27.9M) and current five-time nominee
Lady Bird ($46.6M).
Game Night bulldozes comps for such R-rated summer laugh duds as
Rough Night ($700K Thursday, $3.3M Friday, $8M weekend) and
The House ($800K Thursday, $3.3M and $8.7M).
The Hitman’s Bodyguard, which fared the best of them all, was an action comedy, which
Game Night has elements of. That pic Ryan Reynolds-Samuel L. Jackson buddy comedy posted $1.65M on its Thursday night before an $8M Friday and $21.3M opening.
Also opening today is Orion’s teenage drama
Every Day in under 2,000 locations. Pic is specifically targeted at the LGBT community and females 13-24. Tracking has the microbudget movie opening between
$2M-$4M.
http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-p...ion-game-night-weekend-box-office-1202300998/
