We actually don't disagree on much.
I think where we disagree is on the party-based dynamics of it. I think his base is locked in, regardless. He has a very high approval rating in his party (overall) and his base is firmly entrenched and happy with his presidency. They're gonna be fired up regardless IMO. He's going to use immigration to fire them up anyway. I don't think impeachment would have any material impact on his base's likelihood to vote. However, whether he's removed or not, I think actually fighting Trump with everything you have is going to have a motivating impact on 2020 dem voters. They literally said impeaching Trump was one of the top reasons why they showed up during the midterms. They lost the Kavanaugh battle, but the party loved that the DEMs actually FOUGHT the dems on it instead of just laying down. It's clear by the types of candidates that won in 2018 that the Dems want fighters.
People just think it's politically risky because of what happened to Bill Clinton but the entire country thought it was GOP over-reach because in the end, it was over a fucking blowjob. This isn't the same case.
I actually don't think impeachment will happen. I think Pelosi will try to use it as leverage, but won't pull the trigger