Kavanaugh accuser breaks silence about sexual misconduct allegations, UPDATE 9/26 5th ACCUSER & MORE

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...es-arrested-desperate-bid-stop-Kavanaugh.html







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These pictures make me root for Kavanaugh.
 
You equating Democrats to Republicans is a fucking joke.

I don’t know any Democrat that would still be a Democrat if they did ONE instance Trump and republicans have done in the last two years.

Like I said, a republican strategy to justify their bullshit.

And I’m far from being in a bubble. I interact with republicans almost daily and know first hand how warped they are and capable of. But you keep watering it down by equating the two parties....
I'm talking news sources. Fuck you talking about?:confused: Stay with me. NEWS SOURCES. You jumped in because I asked @ViCiouS if he had a source other than Huffpost. It was a valid question because we were discussing something that I hadn't seen reported anywhere else. Saying questions were limited is huge.

And no one is making shit up about your precious huffpost. It's a blatantly left bias site. Fox is blatantly right bias. Period. I'm stating fact.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/huffington-post/

LEFT BIAS
These media sources are moderately to strongly biased toward liberal causes through story selection and/or political affiliation. They may utilize strong loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by using appeal to emotion or stereotypes), publish misleading reports and omit reporting of information that may damage liberal causes. Some sources in this category may be untrustworthy. See all Left Bias sources.
 
^^^ Unless we see the same trending in the polls from individual races, the Dems are still likely to take over the house and pick up +33 seats.
Lots of good info in this article
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/


From a 35,000-foot view, the story in the generic ballot numbers is largely one of stability.Although it should be noted that our generic ballot tracker is deliberately cautious because generic ballot polls can be noisy.

" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 143, 213); position: relative;">1 If you want to be more precise, however, the trend in the generic ballot now depends on what point in time you’re comparing against. The GOP’s current deficit on the generic ballot, 8.0 percentage points, is a bit worse than it was before Kavanaugh was nominated, when it was 7.4 percentage points. It’s slightly better than it was when Ford’s name was disclosed, however, when it was 9.1 percentage points, or since just before last week’s hearings, when it was 8.6 percentage points.

Trump’s approval ratings have largely followed the same trajectory as the generic ballot, having slumped in early-to-mid September and since rebounded slightly. It’s not clear how much of that is Kavanaugh-related, however, as the president was dealing with a lot of other news in August and early September, such as the guilty pleas of Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen. Merely staying out of the headlines while Kavanaugh was the lead story may have helped Trump’s numbers revert to the mean. It’s also not clear if Trump’s numbers have improved since last week’s Senate hearings; in the all-polls version of our average, they’ve gotten a bit better, but in the registered-voter version, they’ve gotten slightly worse. (There hasn’t yet been time for the polls to reflect any impact of Trump having mocked Ford at a rally on Tuesday night.)

****
Overall, I’m inclined to conclude there’s actually something there for Republicans — that their position has genuinely improved from where it was a week ago (although, not necessarily as compared to where it was a month ago). But I’m also wary of the idea that this is necessarily a turning point, since it wouldn’t take much — a couple of good generic ballot polls for Democrats, plus a handful of good state-level results in places like North Dakota — to reverse the GOP gains in our forecast. There is truth in the idea that Republicans have had a decent week of polling, but it can also be exaggerated by cherry-picking data that’s consistent with a particular narrative.

Finally, it should go without saying that this is still a dynamic situation, and it doesn’t necessarily follow that the party that “wins” the battle over Kavanaugh will benefit electorally. The opposite could prove true. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted earlier this week found that more voters would be angry than enthusiastic if Kavanaugh was confirmed — but also, more voters would be angry than enthusiastic if Kavanaugh was not confirmed. Whichever party doesn’t get its way on Kavanaugh will have more reason to feel aggrieved — and perhaps more motivation to turn out to vote.
 
Exactly ... republicans are on next level shit right now. I’ve never seen them like this. I thought shit was crazy during Bush Jr... but I’d gladly take Bush jr 8 more years over the 2 years of hell we are doing now.
If that bar gets any lower it will actually be in hell.
 
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I'm talking news sources. Fuck you talking about?:confused: Stay with me. NEWS SOURCES. You jumped in because I asked @ViCiouS if he had a source other than Huffpost. It was a valid question because we were discussing something that I hadn't seen reported anywhere else. Saying questions were limited is huge.

And no one is making shit up about your precious huffpost. It's a blatantly left bias site. Fox is blatantly right bias. Period. I'm stating fact.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/huffington-post/

LEFT BIAS
These media sources are moderately to strongly biased toward liberal causes through story selection and/or political affiliation. They may utilize strong loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by using appeal to emotion or stereotypes), publish misleading reports and omit reporting of information that may damage liberal causes. Some sources in this category may be untrustworthy. See all Left Bias sources.
They may be left leaning, but your source also said this: Given that they corrected a false claim they earn High for factual reporting.

They report the facts, bruh.

As for Fox: Overall, we rate Fox News strongly Right-Biased due to word and story selection that favors the right and Mixed factually based on poor sourcing and spreading conspiracy theories that later must be retracted.

So, based on your source, Huffpost tells the truth, Fox lies, so your source says they're not the same and Huffpost can be trusted.
 
Man, this shit will give you battle fatigue if you let it.

Kavanaugh's op-ed only makes things worse, in my opinion. Him doubling down would be stupid, too, but arguing that you said things you didn't mean because you got too emotional is exactly the reason you're a bad fit for this job. Look at how he started his speech. He specifically said no one helped him write it, and only one person had seen it. They were his own words. Those are his own words saying that this is him speaking. There's no explaining away how you did things so badly.

One of my friends tried to BS me when I said this, but it's true: if Kavanaugh was a woman, he would have been done after that speech. Past done. He'd be "way too emotional", "lack proper temperament", "have questionable motives".... every single lie they could think of. As it is, you got one dude making plans to be late to/dip out of his daughter's wedding to make sure he gets his vote in. The level of fuckery is off the charts.
 
Man, this shit will give you battle fatigue if you let it.

Kavanaugh's op-ed only makes things worse, in my opinion. Him doubling down would be stupid, too, but arguing that you said things you didn't mean because you got too emotional is exactly the reason you're a bad fit for this job. Look at how he started his speech. He specifically said no one helped him write it, and only one person had seen it. They were his own words. Those are his own words saying that this is him speaking. There's no explaining away how you did things so badly.

One of my friends tried to BS me when I said this, but it's true: if Kavanaugh was a woman, he would have been done after that speech. Past done. He'd be "way too emotional", "lack proper temperament", "have questionable motives".... every single lie they could think of. As it is, you got one dude making plans to be late to/dip out of his daughter's wedding to make sure he gets his vote in. The level of fuckery is off the charts.
I started to get tired on Monday and Tuesday until the report came out and I was like no this is bullshit I’m going to fight to the end.
 
Welp...

We are heading to a final floor vote... tomorrow.

Joe Manchin did what I expected...

At least Lisa Murkowski voted against him.. but I think she will flip to a yes tomorrow.
 
Even if Manchin voted Yes... We would still be in a Tie and Pence would obviously vote to confirm him. The only way this gets shot down is that Three people have to vote no tomorrow..

Murkowski, Manchin and either Collins or Flake..
 
A lot of muthafuckas sat on the sidelines in 2016, elections has consequences and this is the result of not voting. Hopefully people won't sit on the sideline during the midterms in a few weeks. Dems need to take the House and the Senate. If that happens a lot of things can change.
 
Welp...

We are heading to a final floor vote... tomorrow.

Joe Manchin did what I expected...

At least Lisa Murkowski voted against him.. but I think she will flip to a yes tomorrow.
Manchin has often voted yes to get it to the floor to kill it with a no vote. I actually think he won’t get munchin’s vote tomorrow

Naw. Murkowski is out. She votes the same in procedural and floor.
 
Even if Manchin voted Yes... We would still be in a Tie and Pence would obviously vote to confirm him. The only way this gets shot down is that Three people have to vote no tomorrow..

Murkowski, Manchin and either Collins or Flake..
:raincloud:
 
Manchin has often voted yes to get it to the floor to kill it with a no vote. I actually think he won’t get munchin’s vote tomorrow

Naw. Murkowski is out. She votes the same in procedural and floor.

Still wouldn't Matter...

Only way he doesn't get confirmed is that.. Manchin, Murkowski and either Collins and/or Flake have to say No.

It's going to take 3 NO's to keep it away from Pence.
 
Still wouldn't Matter...

Only way he doesn't get confirmed is that.. Manchin, Murkowski and either Collins and/or Flake have to say No.

It's going to take 3 NO's to keep it away from Pence.

I was just speaking on the politics of the procedural vote.

We all know the math

Collins has a press conference at 3pm to announce her floor vote.
 
It was always about murkowski and Collins. manchin is going to vote whichever way Collins votes. He won’t be the deciding vote.

If Collins comes out and says she’s a YES on the floor vote at 3pm, it’s over.
 
I don’t see it.

With the midterms coming up and the GOP already in fear they will lose the house, I don’t see them shooting themselves in the foot when they have a chance to put someone in.

So my thing is, who is Kavanaugh for? Trump or the GOP? I’m think if it was for the GOP, they could have found someone else that still holds their purpose with less baggage.


I might be right after all! :yes:

*fingers crossed*
 
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