***Tripster's 2008 Investments (Ongoing thread)***

Theres blood in the water. I hope Mondays rate cut does something for E*trade. I think I'm ready to take the shares that have made profit and let the rest ride. Time to prepare to get a new position in some of the new picks coming about in here. Confidence has been instilled within:yes:
Much appreciation to everyone who drops picks with detailed explanation. It really help to educate me as well as get money. Thank you.
 
Theres blood in the water. I hope Mondays rate cut does something for E*trade. I think I'm ready to take the shares that have made profit and let the rest ride. Time to prepare to get a new position in some of the new picks coming about in here. Confidence has been instilled within:yes:
Much appreciation to everyone who drops picks with detailed explanation. It really help to educate me as well as get money. Thank you.

I personally think the banking industry is going to consolidate. All the weak banks & brokerages days are numbered unless a major bail out happens soon. Etrade(etfc) eventually will be gutted into pieces to the highest bidder. I'm hoping it retest those $2.08 lows, but it probably be sold before that happens again. So I'm playing that stock day by day.
 
I personally think the banking industry is going to consolidate. All the weak banks & brokerages days are numbered unless a major bail out happens soon. Etrade(etfc) eventually will be gutted into pieces to the highest bidder. I'm hoping it retest those $2.08 lows, but it probably be sold before that happens again. So I'm playing that stock day by day.


Thanks. Im hoping for the same. I believe that the only purpose of this new CEO was to make a deal happen. Shine that shit up & make it look like gold. By the way T-Capone much respect to your style of trading. Getting in and out of a position in under a minute:eek: Thats a skill I must aquire. Not right now:smh: might make my hair start to fall out.There are some good people up in here with differnet trading styles and knowledge in different areas. I think every pick posted has had positive returns at some time. Props.
 
Heres an article from Bloomberg.com on the situation in S.A. mines.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=a57kC.QAw6LQ&refer=africa


"South Africa Mining Output Falls by Most in a Decade (Update4)

By Carli Lourens

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- South Africa, the world's biggest precious metals producer, said mining output fell by the most in at least a decade in January after a national power shortage shut mines for five days.

Total mine production dropped 11 percent in the month from a year earlier while gold output plunged 17 percent, Pretoria- based Statistics South Africa, the national statistics agency, said today on its Web site. Non-gold output fell 9.6 percent.

A near collapse of the system at state power utility Eskom Holdings Ltd. closed most mines in Africa's biggest economy. That sent platinum and gold prices to records, helping AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., Anglo Platinum Ltd. and Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. to make up for production losses.

``It's massive,'' Colen Garrow, chief economist at Johannesburg-based Brait SA Ltd., said of January's decline in output. ``The mining sector has been the most aggressively affected by outages.''

Power shortages may trim platinum output in South Africa by 500,000 ounces this year, Barclays Capital said last month. South African platinum production accounts for about three- quarters of global output and the country is the world's second- biggest gold producer, after China.

Gold Fields Ltd., Africa's second-biggest gold producer, last month said it may cut 6,900 jobs, or 13 percent of its South African workforce, because of limited power supplies.

Power Limits

``The sector got a terrible shock,'' Fanie Joubert, an economist at the Pretoria-based Efficient Group Ltd., said by phone from the city today. ``There was a very immediate, very negative effect from the power outages.''

Eskom last month said mines would have to operate at 90 percent of normal usage until the first major new power plant starts up in about four years. The utility is boosting that to an average of 95 percent after threats of job cuts.

``At the current prices, you'd want mines to be producing at 120 percent,'' Joubert said. Prices would have been ``strong'' even if the effects of power cuts were excluded, he added.

Platinum-group metals production fell 16 percent in January month while coal output slumped 13 percent, the Chamber of Mines of South Africa said in an e-mailed statement.

``The electricity emergency hit the mining industry hard,'' said the Johannesburg-based industry body, which represents most mining companies operating in the country.

Hit Hard

South Africa's mining industry accounted for 5.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of last year and employed more than 455,000 workers in December.

The country's mineral sales rose 22 percent to 21.41 billion rand ($2.7 billion) in December as metal prices rose, Statistics South Africa said. The agency will publish sales figures for January next month.

Gold gained 28 percent to an average $807.11 an ounce in December in London from a year earlier, while platinum climbed by a third to an average $1,496.15 an ounce.

To contact the reporter on this story: Carli Lourens in Johannesburg at clourens@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 13, 2008 10:37 EDT"

Also Platinum American Eagles on usmint.gov website have sold out before the gold eagles. First time I've seen that happen.
 
Offwork,,,the SA problems are just starting, you will look at the lowest output out of SA for the full year, so all metals should benefit..

Mid Month Update:
From Jan 15th Post..
POT 1/18-$122 NOW $160,+31.14%
MOS 1/18-$80 NOW $111, +33.75%
PAL 1/18-$3.76 NOW $7.36, +95.74%
SWC 1/18-$8.13 NOW $18.40,+126.32%
Tip's Drop
TGB 1/??-$3.83 NOW $6.16,+60.83%
**((feel free to add/update others you guys know of))**
Lets also add these as they are also quite inportant:

Silver 1/18-$15.82 NOW $20.67, +30.65%
Platinum 1/18-$1560 NOW $2073, +32.88%
Palladium 1/18-$369 NOW $509, +37.94%
Gold 1/18-$881 NOW $1002, +13.73%

Placed stops to lock in profits on POT & TNH after a quick one day move up, POT went from 153 to 165 in a day, TNH 122 to 134, stops locked in the profits, will see for re-entry next week.

I also picked up some +PALFU (June PAL 7.50s) to play the earnings...
 
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Buying a few hundred shares of HL EGO, and TMA tomorrow.
Hl has Bullish Trend.:D

Anyone into penny stocks.
i like
SKNY:yes:
HGC:yes:

Never really messed with the penny stocks but as I watched your picks(nice picks by the way++) SKNY(Skinny Nutrition) grabbed my attention. I see its sold nationwide at Target & Amazon.com. The former head of Operations from Vitamin Water is now with Skinny. Skinny water even has a great gimmick..it makes you skinny:hmm:.
Some good reviews some bad. A few bloggers like it. Most of them dont but they the same ones who also shot down super successfull Vitamin Water. Im curious how you intend to play SKNY? Do you think this will be the next VW and go to $1 a share? Or watch it every minute every day and if it hits .18 get the hell out?!!!
 
What do you all think about Sprint Nextel Corp stock. It's down to $6.02. Now that they are releasing unlimited plans, it might jump.

Any thoughts?
 
What do you all think about Sprint Nextel Corp stock. It's down to $6.02. Now that they are releasing unlimited plans, it might jump.

Any thoughts?

Ratta Tatt Tatt,,,
Sprint is in trouble, they've been losing customers by the millions of late, they bet on their WiMax network & while its likely a great technology, the costs are abundant. As a buyout play, it looks good, for an individual company-they are on life support. Way i see it, any of the BIG worldwide telecoms (Vodafone,Rogers,etc) could see it as a great entry into the U.S. Telecom market - Sprint is big & they have a large customer base, I'm not really sure the reason so many leave them, I've used then for years & the tele/Vision service is top notch. Verizon may also look to swallow them. AT&T has consumed quite a few carriers to make it so big.

The market is becoming full of these "call in a lifeline" companies (Etrade,you name the bank,etc), question is, who wants to step up & divest cash & stock in this market for a deal & is it worth it to them, as it very well could be in 6mos it will/would be cheaper for them to acquire. I'd look for suitors to start popping up soon..will be interesting when consolidation in all sectors begin as I doubt premiums will be too high. Y! was going to get 65% primium, now they may get less..

So do your research on Sprint & see what you come up with..just remember Telecoms are past thier growth phase, thier endgame is now playing out.

I'll be lookin to pick up some TITN this week. Will also have to find some re-entry on other issues once the FED moves (Citi saying the expect a 1 point drop,,eek, that would send stocks flying)

**Damn, I'm a Star now,,nice lol**
 
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Ratta Tatt Tatt,,,
Sprint is in trouble, they've been losing customers by the millions of late, they bet on their WiMax network & while its likely a great technology, the costs are abundant. As a buyout play, it looks good, for an individual company-they are on life support. Way i see it, any of the BIG worldwide telecoms (Vodafone,Rogers,etc) could see it as a great entry into the U.S. Telecom market - Sprint is big & they have a large customer base, I'm not really sure the reason so many leave them, I've used then for years & the tele/Vision service is top notch. Verizon may also look to swallow them. AT&T has consumed quite a few carriers to make it so big.

The market is becoming full of these "call in a lifeline" companies (Etrade,you name the bank,etc), question is, who wants to step up & divest cash & stock in this market for a deal & is it worth it to them, as it very well could be in 6mos it will/would be cheaper for them to acquire. I'd look for suitors to start popping up soon..will be interesting when consolidation in all sectors begin as I doubt premiums will be too high. Y! was going to get 65% primium, now they may get less..

So do your research on Sprint & see what you come up with..just remember Telecoms are past thier growth phase, thier endgame is now playing out.

I'll be lookin to pick up some TITN this week. Will also have to find some re-entry on other issues once the FED moves (Citi saying the expect a 1 point drop,,eek, that would send stocks flying)

**Damn, I'm a Star now,,nice lol**
Thanks for the insight! So, what's up with TITN. Machine rental company, etc.... do you think it's going to grow a lot more? what's your outlook on it?
 
Thanks Ratt for bumping this. This thread came right on time as I have some dough that I want to invest in. In the mix of learing this now.
 
Thanks for the insight! So, what's up with TITN. Machine rental company, etc.... do you think it's going to grow a lot more? what's your outlook on it?

If you've monitored my picks, I tend to invest in heavy growth phase sectors & stocks. Right now you're hard pressed to find too many sectors that are in growth phases,BUT Agriculture & Commodities & Energy are where EVERYONE should be right now, Look at TITN as your poor man's John Deere. They are an Agriculture equipment retailer/seller, providing farm equipment to those in need. It is a recent IPO, less than 3 month on the market & it has not moved up significantly, They are profitable, and have a favorable share structure (13.36M O/S w/ a Float of7.83M),they are making pretty good money & will continue to do so, with the fed about to drop rates it makes it cheaper for farmers/individuals to go & buy thier equipment. Do your reasearch on it as well as John Deere & you'll see strong demand, TITN has shown strong Q over Q revenue growth rates.

Good luck to all you guys jumping into Visa this week, should be an interesting few days with so much happening, I expect Gold/Metals to jump a little w/ Fed moves w/ rates..OIL should continue its strength...we'll see...
 
Also Platinum American Eagles on usmint.gov website have sold out before the gold eagles. First time I've seen that happen.

http://www.news24.com/News24/South_Africa/Power_Crisis/0,,2-7-2335_2289364,00.html
***LET WINTER FALL, SA Power will become a disaster***
Expect power cuts - Eskom
16/03/2008 23:33 - (SA)

Johannesburg - Eskom warned of a high possibility of nationwide power cuts on Monday after anticipating that the cold weather would increase the demand for electricity, the utility said on Sunday.

Spokesperson Andrew Etzinger said Eskom would try to bring a number of power generating units back on-line during the course of Sunday night.

If the utility could not bring these units on-line in time, then power cuts would occur nationally on Monday.

The power cuts would start during the morning peak (06:00 to 10:00.

The cuts would then continue throughout the day into the evening peak (18:00 to 22:00). The power cuts would stop at 22:00 on Monday, said Etzinger.
 
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Underwriters for the blockbuster Visa Inc. (V: ) deal moved up the trading of the initial public offering by one day to Wednesday, according to reports on Friday. Moving up the schedule by one day means that Visa will price its 406 million shares at $37-$42 a share on Tuesday night, in a bid to raise about $16 billion. It's posied to exceed the $11 billion raised by AT&T Wireless in 2000 as the richest IPO ever in the U.S. The IPO, which will trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol V.
 
(MarketWatch) -- J.P. Morgan Chase to buy Bear Stearns for $2 a share

JPM 36.54, -1.57, -4.1%) has agreed to buy Bear Stearns [s:bsc] for $2 a share in a stock-swap deal, according to a report in the online edition of the Wall Street Journal citing people familiar with the matter. J.P.

Morgan will exchange 0.05473 shares of its common stock per one share of Bear Stearns stock. Both boards have approved the transaction. The Journal reported people familiar with the discussions said all sides were pushing hard to complete an agreement before financial markets in Asia open for Monday trading. The Journal report quotes Treasury Department spokeswoman Michele Davis as saying, "None of these things is done until they're done. But I think everyone's expectation is sometime in the early evening hopefully" the deal will be done.
 
Man, looks like tommorow will be a bloodbath, the EURO is climbing & the Asian markets are tanking, seems that all stock will get laced up tommorow. Bear Stearns getting paid $2/share, man, wow...I feel for anyone who got caught in the downdraft, no one wishes that kind of errosion on anyone, One more major bank falling could really lead to full collapse of the US $.. It very well maybe the feds cuts but nothing is looking peachy these days. If anyone sees green tommorow, you had to be in the right frame of mind, metals are up, oil up, commodities even to up.

In addition, this week we have a ton of Banks reporting (aka writing down) losses, It may be hard for any stock to buck this bear trend, but truth be told all the stocks we recommended here are companies that are either in commodites or in precious metals, so we're been avoiding all the stocks you should be avoiding, now whetther they can buck the trend will come to light soon, these companies (MOS/AGU/POT/PAL/SWC/TGB/SLW) all are good picks in this down market, but we'll have to see...

http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topi...=207294&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28
 
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Man, looks like tommorow will be a bloodbath, the EURO is climbing & the Asian markets are tanking, seems that all stock will get laced up tommorow. Bear Stearns getting paid $2/share, man, wow...I feel for anyone who got caught in the downdraft, no one wishes that kind of errosion on anyone, One more major bank falling could really lead to full collapse of the US $.. It very well maybe the feds cuts but nothing is looking peachy these days. If anyone sees green tommorow, you had to be in the right frame of mind, metals are up, oil up, commodities even to up.

So why do you think an investment bank going under lead to the collapse of the U$D?
 
So why do you think an investment bank going under lead to the collapse of the U$D?

Not saying it will happen, Currently Citibank is overseas looking for a handout from the wealthy oil rich countries & they'll get it, because the Saudis are too deep in Citi to watch it tumble. But the fall of the US$ is likely in line with what the government wants, creating a path for the amero to rise. See, a low US$, is actually good for US companies operating overseas, so it's not all bad. Lets face it, US companies are not making thier major money in the U.S, so they could really care less about the American consumer. Banks are in need of lifelines & expect mergers to start happening in the near term. Metals should fly, but truth is, the board have been seeing this coming, so it's good to be a bit ahead of the curve. Never was any Financial stock given approval, some got caught on ETRD but it was never recommended here...

http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topi...=207294&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28
 
Not saying it will happen, Currently Citibank is overseas looking for a handout from the wealthy oil rich countries & they'll get it, because the Saudis are too deep in Citi to watch it tumble. But the fall of the US$ is likely in line with what the government wants, creating a path for the amero to rise. See, a low US$, is actually good for US companies operating overseas, so it's not all bad. Lets face it, US companies are not making thier major money in the U.S, so they could really care less about the American consumer. Banks are in need of lifelines & expect mergers to start happening in the near term. Metals should fly, but truth is, the board have been seeing this coming, so it's good to be a bit ahead of the curve. Never was any Financial stock given approval, some got caught on ETRD but it was never recommended here...

http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topi...=207294&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28

Just wondered what your opinion was, cuz people keep worrying about these investment banks. All that will really happen is a tightening of credit. The values of the securities haven't changed, only the perception of the value, cuz everybody is so edgy thinking there will be more writedowns (there will, still doesn't matter though).

I personally think it's a good thing, and the Fed needs to let nature take its course. They're only delaying the inevitable.

Ah well. Whatever.
 
Just wondered what your opinion was, cuz people keep worrying about these investment banks. All that will really happen is a tightening of credit. The values of the securities haven't changed, only the perception of the value, cuz everybody is so edgy thinking there will be more writedowns (there will, still doesn't matter though).

I personally think it's a good thing, and the Fed needs to let nature take its course. They're only delaying the inevitable.

Ah well. Whatever.

What you end up with in the end, is the Banking system in the hands of so few national & foreign banks. In the end you expect the GIANT banks (JPM, Bank Of America, Citibank, Barclays,HSBC,etc) to be the only surviving banks, so on the consumer level,it becomes limited, in terms of choice.
"The values of the securities haven't changed, only the perception of the value," - Well if the percieved value included securites that have to be written off, then you have lower perceieved value. This week alone they are expecting about $10B to be written down by the banks, due to the sub-prime crisis & mortgage backed securities. The truth is, most consumers in the U.S. have not a care about Wall Street, but what happens on Wall Street, trickles down to the consumer when they see the inflation....when the average consumer has to pay more for every little thing,when oil goes to 150 this summer & people start paying $4+/gallon its going to place alot of people in such heavy binds...lets not forget also that ALL these banks will shed (more)heads, so expect unemployment to jump very soon,,,

The Bear Stearns story is really tragic, it's a bit worst than ENRON, Enron was always a "creative" revenue company, Bear was legit for near 100 years, strong & a powerhouse,,& it a poof...it'll be gone,,,,Lehman Brothers may be next..beyond the $$, there are likely plenty of lives that will be effected,.

Might be agood time to short the Brokers, like Ameritrade, or buy puts against them. Have to imagine that anyone caught on a BSC margin call will be hard pressed to pay up. We're talking about a $$8B wipeout in 2 days... damn,,,:puke::smh:
 
Man I am SOOO glad I didn't jump on Bear Stearns after what I perceived as a "oversold" situation late last week. One of my rules is "never try to guess the bottom and time it perfectly, because it will bite you in the ass more often than not", and I'm glad I followed it. Man I feel sorry for those who had money tied up in Bear.

I agree with Pop. Tomorrow is going to be quite ugly indeed. Financials are going to getting MERKED. It just seems like right when you think the worst is over, and financials are turning around, then BAM, something else lets you know that "it ain't ova...its NOT ova....the party's not ova". :lol:

I'm looking to short some financials next week, but I'll probably chill Monday. I don't think there is ANYWHERE "safe" to be tomorrow, everybody is going to try to get liquid. I see another 300 point drop tomorrow unless the fed cuts, which will help for a minute.

The good news is, everything is about to get mad cheap, so if you've been on the sidelines, you may want to get in the game soon.

Let's Get It!
 
Lehman Brothers (Leh) is getting hit early down already 39%. My plan for today is to ride the momentum up or down with an offset of 75% short hands & 25% buys. My play list is the usual high flyer's & troubled banks.
 
Lehman Brothers (Leh) is getting hit early down already 39%. My plan for today is to ride the momentum up or down with an offset of 75% short hands & 25% buys. My play list is the usual high flyer's & troubled banks.

I'm keeping hands off triggers today, just feel i got lucky with exits last week, likely today the selloff, tommorow the bounce. but still, guessing a bottom w/ another bank(LEH) on the brink is not going to be easy....

Your shorts will likely do well today, I trade on non-margin so the short plays are out for me.

Blood on the Street..ah well lets see what bargains get created..that V drop is going to be interesting in this environment
 
I'm keeping hands off triggers today, just feel i got lucky with exits last week, likely today the selloff, tommorow the bounce. but still, guessing a bottom w/ another bank(LEH) on the brink is not going to be easy....

Your shorts will likely do well today, I trade on non-margin so the short plays are out for me.

Blood on the Street..ah well lets see what bargains get created..that V drop is going to be interesting in this environment

Yeah this week is gonna crazy. Right now I'm sitting out till after 10 to get a sense for the market. So far too many whipsaws & spikes.

One Formula I use sometimes when volatility is heavy like today:

Watch if Rimm Price Change is more than 1% of DOW movement(not NASDAQ).
SHORT if Rimm Price Change is less than 1% of DOW movement.

Pays 90% of the time.

Examples:

Dow is down 180 points and Rimm is down 1.50 (less than 1% of 180)...I see it safe to short.

Dow is down 120 points and Rimm is down 1.50 (more than 1% of 120)...I watch the movement. Not safe to short.

Take other factors into account...e.g., earnings, etc


As far as visa, who knows some good news might come out between now & then.
 
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Im looking to get into TGB and or SWC.....

Same here, looking to average down on TGB, the volume is light today, think many have forgotten about it. SWC looks like it'll hold well, picked up TNH (again) for hopefully another run tommorow. TITN is actually GREEN today, only stock on my lists that is lol

All in all most of the boards' picks are in the right space so i doubt we're really getting heavily burned today,,
 
Same here, looking to average down on TGB, the volume is light today, think many have forgotten about it. SWC looks like it'll hold well, picked up TNH (again) for hopefully another run tommorow. TITN is actually GREEN today, only stock on my lists that is lol

All in all most of the boards' picks are in the right space so i doubt we're really getting heavily burned today,,

Your right today wasnt(so far) as bad as I thought it would be. Except for the Bear Sterns employees and holders :smh:. Even the financials arent getting bloody beaten. The money machine must have been turned back on. Im in TGB at 5.97.
 
So the US$ is bouncing UP, forcing metals down, such an artificial dollar rally,,

You right about that. They showed the machine today printing out $50 bills like newspaper. Anyone think the Yen will even out with the dollar? I think I'll pickup a 100k yen just incase.
 
You right about that. They showed the machine today printing out $50 bills like newspaper. Anyone think the Yen will even out with the dollar? I think I'll pickup a 100k yen just incase.

They can prop the dollar all they want, but they true measure will be watching all the commodities,oil, grains,precious metals continue to rise. Lets face it, no one is going to believe ANY banks on their reporting of "book value", i'll bet there are many more banks to fall. SOme think Bear's the mark of the bottom, how can it be, the bottom is when you see commodities/PMs/oil all top out & that folks is not going to be anytime soon, Banks are going to get hammered, they've lost all credibility. You just dont state $80 share value then get taken under for $2. On this board we've positioned many well for this, as we've basically stuck to recomendations that were either Metal oriented or Agriculture based. Visa is dropping & it will serve as a prop, Wall Streets needs Visa to dampen the mood, they need somethig to bring back some confidence & they will use Visa just for that, to that end I myself will join the hunt & see if i can land some, not sure though that i want to enter a position with a lockup period where you can't sell (anyone have some more background if there will be a lockup period, or will it drop free & tradabel?)

In the meantime, YES, metals have slipped/AGs have slipped, Oil has slipped,,,but watch the trend on all,,,they are ALL UP...dont't get spooked by day to day...all the picks are in the right space to be...
 
lol I picked up 33 shares of Bear and Stearns at $3.65. I figure it will at least go up to $6+, so I could make double the loot that I put in lol.

Let me know what you think, and if i should get out quicker while i am ahead!
 
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