"The two countries have been discussing an agreement that would require Ukraine to pay half the revenue it will extract from the future monetisation of natural resources to a special fund controlled by the U.S., the New York Times reported. The fund would be tasked with reinvesting part of the proceeds in Ukraine, as a catalyst for attracting overseas capital. The U.S. appears to have dropped the $500 billion demand, which never made much sense. American civil and military support to Kyiv over the last three years amounted to 114 billion euros, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Over the same period, European countries sent 132 billion euros.
A bar chart showing government support to Ukraine between 2022 to 2024
One big unknown is the scale of Ukraine’s assets. Local authorities have a poor picture of their country’s underground resources, which include uranium, lithium, oil and gas. The last mapping of so-called rare-earth metals was completed decades ago, and the deposits may not be viable. Besides, some of the coveted elements are in territory occupied by Russia.
Furthermore, any revenue is years away. Ukraine will first have to build or rebuild mines and repair the country’s damaged energy grid. The promise of future returns could spur U.S. investment, thereby beginning the rebuilding of Ukraine, a task the World Bank estimates will cost $524 billion.
Zelenskiy wanted any deal to be conditional on American involvement in policing a truce with Russia. That condition appears to have run up against the Trump administration’s opposition to military involvement in Europe. But the Ukrainian leader has also stated that giving the U.S. an interest in the country’s economic future would achieve the same outcome. Indeed, Russia doesn’t like the mooted deal - and President Vladimir Putin has offered the U.S. a mineral agreement of his own.
Zelenskiy might also conclude that a general agreement covering unknown assets with distant revenue may not bind Kyiv much. By the time the mines are up and running, the U.S. may have a friendlier president. Ukraine could then review the contract or tear it up altogether. "
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