Official NBA 2016-2017 Thread - 30 teams, 1 goal. 2 weeks left, so much can happen!!

I don't know why folks always seem to over look this. Dude was having fun then talking shit about the rainbow crowd...

and i was on team why fire him that's some bullshit
until i learned the full story
then i understood like that's just not going to work. you can't do that and keep an nba job
 
Science says Deron Williams is the NBA’s best backup Point Guard
Posted By: Will GoodallPosted date: February 28, 2017

Deron-Williams-Cavs-GD.png


Cleveland already hosts the league’s best Small Forward, LeBron James. They have the best handles in Kyrie Irving. Most importantly, rings don’t lie; in 2016 Cleveland was the best. Following the wizard David Griffin’s newest acquisition, Cleveland may just notch another “best” in its belt: Deron Williams, the NBA’s best backup Point Guard. A baseless claim, however, is just that. To truly articulate Williams’s superiority data analysis is a must. So let’s get scientific.

Selecting a sample

For comparison I’ve taken a four point guard sample. Though not the average backup’s representation, each guard’s contributions garner league-wide recognition. When assembling this sample, player selection prioritized notable physical attributes, starter quality “Per 36” stat-lines and supporting cast quality. Following these qualifications, I chose:

Shaun Livingston, Golden State Warriors
Patty Mills, San Antonio Spurs
Cory Joseph, Toronto Raptors
Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics

Coincidentally (or perhaps not), each point guard hails from a top six playoff contender. Houston, the noteworthy exclusion, lacks representation as Lou Williams’s stats reflect his Los Angles tenure and Patrick Beverly shares James Harden’s starter’s minutes. Several other names in consideration, and the reason for their exclusion were:

Austin Rivers, Los Angeles Clippers: A combo guard, Rivers’ may serve as the Clippers primary backup guard, but his relatively recent point guard transition shifts his stats. Additionally Rivers’ lack of second unit assistance artificially inflates his stats. Finally Chris Paul’s absence this season forced Rivers into the starting lineup, once again artificially inflating his stats.

J.J. Barea, Dallas Mavericks: Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle ran the point using a rotating door philosophy. Seth Curry, Deron Williams and Barea all played relatively similar minutes throughout the season. Injury, subpar performance and experimentation all muddled the starter-backup line. Therefore, comparing Williams and either individual skews results.

Cameron Payne, Chicago Bulls: Considered a project player, Payne’s numbers don’t reflect performance, a result of Russel Westbrooks ball dominance. Additionally Payne’s injury limited playtime this season. Even once Payne returned, a minutes restriction limited court time.


Physical attributes:
When evaluating a player’s physical ability, this evaluation takes three categories into consideration. Height and wingspan generally correlate with defensive ability. Weight on the other hand gives insight regarding speed and one-on-one ability. The table below tracks each of these stats.


Screen-Shot-2017-02-28-at-7.41.14-PM-1024x275.png

Evaluating physical characteristics alone, Shaun Livingston is the immediately apparent outlier. The league’s tallest point guard, his wingspan and athleticism swallow opposing one guards. Lack of a jumpshot (we’ll explore this later) forces Livingston into the utility guard position, an oversized position player staple. Questions then occur regarding Livingston’s true value. Arguably Livingston’s impact derives from defensive position play, rather than true one guard skills.

On the spectrum’s other end, Marcus Smart’s heft determines his game. Unlike most modern one guards, Smart shoots the three ball poorly. Weight bequests a player charging ability, and Smart is no exception. Playing a Small Forward’s game, Smart’s tools share striking similarity with Williams who, according to Chris Herring of FiveThrityEight, drives 6.8 times per game since January 10th.

Among this sample, Williams occupies average physical tools, though removing physical outlier Shaun Livingston puts him slightly above average. Analyzing wingspan and height alone, Williams’s physical tools technically should provide him with a defensive mismatch. Though Williams’s defensive prowess isn’t highly touted, Williams held opponents to 43.6% shooting, average shooting percentage hovering slightly above 45%. Slightly above average, Williams passes the defensive eye test. Offensively, his size truly comes into play.

Provided Lue runs a smaller lineup, Williams’s size slots him somewhat well at shooting guard. Historically, Williams’s thrives alongside a slashing one guard. Here’s SB Nation’s Josh Bowe on exactly that,

“…Williams size can allow him to defend shooting guards and play with another point guard who is more adept at knifing into a defense off pick and rolls and let Williams happily spot up around the perimeter or hit the open man when the ball is swung his way. Williams was a far better shooter when he was allowed to spot up — he hit 39 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes last season…”

Bowe practically lays out Williams fit alongside Kyrie Irving. The league’s premier slasher, a pick and roll set ran through LeBron and Kyrie creates the exact look Williams looks for. Williams’s addition brings Cleveland another high basketball IQ passer. Cleveland’s bread and butter three-point play, the “Swing Swing,” prioritizes rapid passing around the arc. Traditionally Cleveland swings either driving player to wing or key to half wing to corner (sometimes referred to as “a hockey assist”). However, Williams’s specialty is a different pass. Herring notes that Williams’s recipients of passes that travel more than thirty feet perform at impossibly high efficiency,

“…The Mavs have a whopping 107.1 percent effective field-goal rate* off those [30+ feet] looks — far higher than the league average of 59.6 percent off such passes.”

In essence, Williams needs only situate himself wing-side, playing moderator between a kick out and open man across the court. Though Williams’s size doesn’t exclusively aid his passing ability. When Williams does slot into the swing swing’s shooter role, he’ll be prepared.

Cleveland has a reputation regarding good catch-and-shoot three point shooters. They become elite. Kyle Korver for example, in Atlanta he shot a 44% field goal percentage, making 40% from three. Flash forward and Korver currently shoots 52% from the field, and a scorching 51% from three. Assuming Williams even makes half those gains (say shoot 45% off catch-and-shoot threes), his three point shooting percentage should far surpass the league average. Height should only increase those numbers further.

Take a hypothetical series against the Boston Celtics. Kyrie Irving forces Brad Stevens’ defensive hand. At all times, Stevens should want either Avery Bradley or Marcus Smart hounding Irving, limiting his effectiveness. The result? Either 5’8” Isaiah Thomas or 6’2” Terry Rozier now picks up bulkier, taller Deron Williams, giving Williams a clear mismatch.

*Effective Field Goal Rate is traditional field goal rate, but considers three-point shots 50% more valuable than two point shots, allowing for the number to exceed 100%. Per 36:

When standardizing statistics, the NBA applies the “Per 36” constant. “Per-36” represents a player’s stats assuming pace held for 36 minutes. For example, a player averages 5 points and 3 rebounds in 12 minutes of play. His “Per-36” averages work out to 15 points and 9 rebounds “Per 36”. While not perfect (it’s unlikely a 12 minute per game player could hold pace over triple the normal playtime) the metric does help minimize the difference between starter’s performance and bench players through standardization of minutes. Deron Williams’s stats thus far reflect shared starter’s minutes, requiring a standardization tool’s compensation.

Another option to analyze stats involves “per-possession”, pace of play. “Per 36” standardizes numbers across different paces. For example, tracking the per-possession stats of Tyler Ulis compared to Dante Exum. Phoenix’s 107 possessions a game are almost 15 data points a night more than Utah’s. Where Ulis’s “Per-36” takes average game pace into account, his per-possession numbers are far more erratic. Ironically enough Cleveland holds the league average pace, making their stats most conducive for “per-possession” analysis, though only when comparing amongst themselves. As this study compares cross team, “Per-36” is employed.

Screen-Shot-2017-02-28-at-7.40.25-PM-1024x268.png



“Per 36” only Patty Mills outscores Williams. Using his aforementioned bulk, Williams is a freight train headed towards the basket. His previously mentioned seven drives a game provide nearly eight points off isolation plays, though offensively Williams shines brightest off the pick and roll. Williams scores 89.9 points per 100 possessions as a pick-and-roll ball handler, meaning nearly 45% of driving attempts succeed. It’s important to note that a failed attempt isn’t necessarily a turnover, rather a defender reacquainted themselves with Williams’ path, or the angle wasn’t clear and Williams reset and reassessed the situation.

Stylistically, Williams differs from the majority. Marcus Smart and especially Shaun Livingston play around the midrange, each for their own reasons. Livingston plays foil, while Golden States’ golden boys hoist half court threes, Livingston catches defenders off balance, exploiting the unexpected shot location. Smart’s game channels his court vision and size to either pass from the key, or fake drive to the rim, exposing a clear look. Joseph’s employment requires scoring off the bench. Channeling his inner Kyrie Irving, Joseph’s game either sees open three point looks, or driving and breaking ankles. Patty Mills isn’t just a product of the Spurs system, he is the Spurs system. Kicking the ball around until finding an open look, Mills almost never attacks unless an advantageous situation emerges. As a backup, Williams blend of offensive aggression and precision passing is virtually unheard of.



For the most part, Williams’ three point game was covered during the size explanation, though peer comparison does reveal some noteworthy trends. Excluding Livingston, whose 0% three point shooting results from never taking a shot, premier backup point guards have high variance in three point ability, with Williams representing the average. A general trend to note, fewer attempts generally correlate with heightened percentages, as seen in the Cory Joseph line. Additionally motion provided resulting from all five members range generally sees the same correlation, an explanation for Patty Mills’ near unrealistic “Per 36” shooting numbers. No longer the primary initiator as well as ball handler, I’d wager decreased volume/pressure should directly result in increased shooting percentages.

Scoring ability alone didn’t get Williams signed. LeBron specifically requested a playmaker. In Williams, Cleveland possibly found one, if the numbers hold. Williams, similar to Mills or Smart, flourishes during motion sets or pace and space offenses. When Carlisle implemented a five out offensive scheme (all five players hang on the wings until a drive initiates), Williams’s assist number

Cleveland has scorers. Averaging the League’s third highest points per game, getting the ball in the basket provides little challenge. Cleveland rather lacks many efficient methods for feeding scorers the ball. Per Wagner,

“…The Cavaliers have only three players with an assist rate* over 10 percent: LeBron (41.9), Kyrie Irving (30), and 21-year-old backup point guard Kay Felder.”

Williams’s assist rate fits snugly between James and Irving’s, averaging just under 40%. Assuming one of the three (Williams, James, Irving) occupy the primary ball handler position at any given time, Cleveland’s effective average assist rate should comfortably hover near the upper thirties.

Williams’s offensive game opens additional passing opportunities a younger team such as Dallas simply couldn’t provide. Acting as the initiator off a pick and roll, Cleveland’s five out lineups featuring Channing Frye provide complimentary lethal weapons for a Williams kick-out. Sans injury, there are no reasons to believe the same Williams the Mavericks employed just a week ago shouldn’t play as well if not better in Cleveland.

*Assist rate represents the percentage of Field Goals player X assisted on during their floor time. For Example, if five shots were taken while Player X played, and he assisted on one of those shots, his Assist Rate would be 20%.

Conclusions

The title “Best” isn’t awarded, it’s earned. We, as NBA fans, are yet to see Deron Williams achieve this mantle at the backup spot, but predictions made with stats and analysis look positive. Williams’ unique game, resulting from bulk and high basketball IQ, is conducive and complementary to Cleveland’s game. Williams packs an explosiveness not seen among his peers, situational positive shooting Cleveland’s motion offense only should improve, and court vision rivalling the league’s premier passers. The stats exist, all that’s missing are the Cleveland highlight reels confirming what we already know. Williams could claim the title of “best” his first day on the job.
 
No. He hasn't been consistent the entire season. It ain't just now. It ain't tinkering now. There hasn't been consistency with the rotation this entire season and that's why now the lineups look how they look as opposed to just being the next man up filling defined roles everybody knows what they had to do.
It ain't panic mode. He does need to quit playing.
There's no reason a dude like Ian Clark who is clearly the barbosa of this year shouldn't just come in and score with the 2nd unit after scoring 36 points off the fucking bench last night
he usually don't even play
when he was playing the barbosa role earlier in the year. that's what I'm talking about
Logical shit Kerr is going away from trying to be too cute.

Fam... When coaches tinker with lineups all season its because they feel like they need to, not to get cute, not to showoff, not cause they dont have shit else to do. Its because they see things they dont like and they trying to fix it. Losing Kevin obviously adds to those problems.

I still dont see how Kerr aint earned a pass from you guys yet. Like I said before, since he been HC, at worst he's been the 2nd best in the league.
 
Science says Deron Williams is the NBA’s best backup Point Guard
Posted By: Will GoodallPosted date: February 28, 2017

Deron-Williams-Cavs-GD.png


Cleveland already hosts the league’s best Small Forward, LeBron James. They have the best handles in Kyrie Irving. Most importantly, rings don’t lie; in 2016 Cleveland was the best. Following the wizard David Griffin’s newest acquisition, Cleveland may just notch another “best” in its belt: Deron Williams, the NBA’s best backup Point Guard. A baseless claim, however, is just that. To truly articulate Williams’s superiority data analysis is a must. So let’s get scientific.

Selecting a sample

For comparison I’ve taken a four point guard sample. Though not the average backup’s representation, each guard’s contributions garner league-wide recognition. When assembling this sample, player selection prioritized notable physical attributes, starter quality “Per 36” stat-lines and supporting cast quality. Following these qualifications, I chose:

Shaun Livingston, Golden State Warriors
Patty Mills, San Antonio Spurs
Cory Joseph, Toronto Raptors
Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics

Coincidentally (or perhaps not), each point guard hails from a top six playoff contender. Houston, the noteworthy exclusion, lacks representation as Lou Williams’s stats reflect his Los Angles tenure and Patrick Beverly shares James Harden’s starter’s minutes. Several other names in consideration, and the reason for their exclusion were:

Austin Rivers, Los Angeles Clippers: A combo guard, Rivers’ may serve as the Clippers primary backup guard, but his relatively recent point guard transition shifts his stats. Additionally Rivers’ lack of second unit assistance artificially inflates his stats. Finally Chris Paul’s absence this season forced Rivers into the starting lineup, once again artificially inflating his stats.

J.J. Barea, Dallas Mavericks: Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle ran the point using a rotating door philosophy. Seth Curry, Deron Williams and Barea all played relatively similar minutes throughout the season. Injury, subpar performance and experimentation all muddled the starter-backup line. Therefore, comparing Williams and either individual skews results.

Cameron Payne, Chicago Bulls: Considered a project player, Payne’s numbers don’t reflect performance, a result of Russel Westbrooks ball dominance. Additionally Payne’s injury limited playtime this season. Even once Payne returned, a minutes restriction limited court time.


Physical attributes:
When evaluating a player’s physical ability, this evaluation takes three categories into consideration. Height and wingspan generally correlate with defensive ability. Weight on the other hand gives insight regarding speed and one-on-one ability. The table below tracks each of these stats.


Screen-Shot-2017-02-28-at-7.41.14-PM-1024x275.png

Evaluating physical characteristics alone, Shaun Livingston is the immediately apparent outlier. The league’s tallest point guard, his wingspan and athleticism swallow opposing one guards. Lack of a jumpshot (we’ll explore this later) forces Livingston into the utility guard position, an oversized position player staple. Questions then occur regarding Livingston’s true value. Arguably Livingston’s impact derives from defensive position play, rather than true one guard skills.

On the spectrum’s other end, Marcus Smart’s heft determines his game. Unlike most modern one guards, Smart shoots the three ball poorly. Weight bequests a player charging ability, and Smart is no exception. Playing a Small Forward’s game, Smart’s tools share striking similarity with Williams who, according to Chris Herring of FiveThrityEight, drives 6.8 times per game since January 10th.

Among this sample, Williams occupies average physical tools, though removing physical outlier Shaun Livingston puts him slightly above average. Analyzing wingspan and height alone, Williams’s physical tools technically should provide him with a defensive mismatch. Though Williams’s defensive prowess isn’t highly touted, Williams held opponents to 43.6% shooting, average shooting percentage hovering slightly above 45%. Slightly above average, Williams passes the defensive eye test. Offensively, his size truly comes into play.

Provided Lue runs a smaller lineup, Williams’s size slots him somewhat well at shooting guard. Historically, Williams’s thrives alongside a slashing one guard. Here’s SB Nation’s Josh Bowe on exactly that,

“…Williams size can allow him to defend shooting guards and play with another point guard who is more adept at knifing into a defense off pick and rolls and let Williams happily spot up around the perimeter or hit the open man when the ball is swung his way. Williams was a far better shooter when he was allowed to spot up — he hit 39 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes last season…”

Bowe practically lays out Williams fit alongside Kyrie Irving. The league’s premier slasher, a pick and roll set ran through LeBron and Kyrie creates the exact look Williams looks for. Williams’s addition brings Cleveland another high basketball IQ passer. Cleveland’s bread and butter three-point play, the “Swing Swing,” prioritizes rapid passing around the arc. Traditionally Cleveland swings either driving player to wing or key to half wing to corner (sometimes referred to as “a hockey assist”). However, Williams’s specialty is a different pass. Herring notes that Williams’s recipients of passes that travel more than thirty feet perform at impossibly high efficiency,

“…The Mavs have a whopping 107.1 percent effective field-goal rate* off those [30+ feet] looks — far higher than the league average of 59.6 percent off such passes.”

In essence, Williams needs only situate himself wing-side, playing moderator between a kick out and open man across the court. Though Williams’s size doesn’t exclusively aid his passing ability. When Williams does slot into the swing swing’s shooter role, he’ll be prepared.

Cleveland has a reputation regarding good catch-and-shoot three point shooters. They become elite. Kyle Korver for example, in Atlanta he shot a 44% field goal percentage, making 40% from three. Flash forward and Korver currently shoots 52% from the field, and a scorching 51% from three. Assuming Williams even makes half those gains (say shoot 45% off catch-and-shoot threes), his three point shooting percentage should far surpass the league average. Height should only increase those numbers further.

Take a hypothetical series against the Boston Celtics. Kyrie Irving forces Brad Stevens’ defensive hand. At all times, Stevens should want either Avery Bradley or Marcus Smart hounding Irving, limiting his effectiveness. The result? Either 5’8” Isaiah Thomas or 6’2” Terry Rozier now picks up bulkier, taller Deron Williams, giving Williams a clear mismatch.

*Effective Field Goal Rate is traditional field goal rate, but considers three-point shots 50% more valuable than two point shots, allowing for the number to exceed 100%. Per 36:

When standardizing statistics, the NBA applies the “Per 36” constant. “Per-36” represents a player’s stats assuming pace held for 36 minutes. For example, a player averages 5 points and 3 rebounds in 12 minutes of play. His “Per-36” averages work out to 15 points and 9 rebounds “Per 36”. While not perfect (it’s unlikely a 12 minute per game player could hold pace over triple the normal playtime) the metric does help minimize the difference between starter’s performance and bench players through standardization of minutes. Deron Williams’s stats thus far reflect shared starter’s minutes, requiring a standardization tool’s compensation.

Another option to analyze stats involves “per-possession”, pace of play. “Per 36” standardizes numbers across different paces. For example, tracking the per-possession stats of Tyler Ulis compared to Dante Exum. Phoenix’s 107 possessions a game are almost 15 data points a night more than Utah’s. Where Ulis’s “Per-36” takes average game pace into account, his per-possession numbers are far more erratic. Ironically enough Cleveland holds the league average pace, making their stats most conducive for “per-possession” analysis, though only when comparing amongst themselves. As this study compares cross team, “Per-36” is employed.

Screen-Shot-2017-02-28-at-7.40.25-PM-1024x268.png



“Per 36” only Patty Mills outscores Williams. Using his aforementioned bulk, Williams is a freight train headed towards the basket. His previously mentioned seven drives a game provide nearly eight points off isolation plays, though offensively Williams shines brightest off the pick and roll. Williams scores 89.9 points per 100 possessions as a pick-and-roll ball handler, meaning nearly 45% of driving attempts succeed. It’s important to note that a failed attempt isn’t necessarily a turnover, rather a defender reacquainted themselves with Williams’ path, or the angle wasn’t clear and Williams reset and reassessed the situation.

Stylistically, Williams differs from the majority. Marcus Smart and especially Shaun Livingston play around the midrange, each for their own reasons. Livingston plays foil, while Golden States’ golden boys hoist half court threes, Livingston catches defenders off balance, exploiting the unexpected shot location. Smart’s game channels his court vision and size to either pass from the key, or fake drive to the rim, exposing a clear look. Joseph’s employment requires scoring off the bench. Channeling his inner Kyrie Irving, Joseph’s game either sees open three point looks, or driving and breaking ankles. Patty Mills isn’t just a product of the Spurs system, he is the Spurs system. Kicking the ball around until finding an open look, Mills almost never attacks unless an advantageous situation emerges. As a backup, Williams blend of offensive aggression and precision passing is virtually unheard of.



For the most part, Williams’ three point game was covered during the size explanation, though peer comparison does reveal some noteworthy trends. Excluding Livingston, whose 0% three point shooting results from never taking a shot, premier backup point guards have high variance in three point ability, with Williams representing the average. A general trend to note, fewer attempts generally correlate with heightened percentages, as seen in the Cory Joseph line. Additionally motion provided resulting from all five members range generally sees the same correlation, an explanation for Patty Mills’ near unrealistic “Per 36” shooting numbers. No longer the primary initiator as well as ball handler, I’d wager decreased volume/pressure should directly result in increased shooting percentages.

Scoring ability alone didn’t get Williams signed. LeBron specifically requested a playmaker. In Williams, Cleveland possibly found one, if the numbers hold. Williams, similar to Mills or Smart, flourishes during motion sets or pace and space offenses. When Carlisle implemented a five out offensive scheme (all five players hang on the wings until a drive initiates), Williams’s assist number

Cleveland has scorers. Averaging the League’s third highest points per game, getting the ball in the basket provides little challenge. Cleveland rather lacks many efficient methods for feeding scorers the ball. Per Wagner,

“…The Cavaliers have only three players with an assist rate* over 10 percent: LeBron (41.9), Kyrie Irving (30), and 21-year-old backup point guard Kay Felder.”

Williams’s assist rate fits snugly between James and Irving’s, averaging just under 40%. Assuming one of the three (Williams, James, Irving) occupy the primary ball handler position at any given time, Cleveland’s effective average assist rate should comfortably hover near the upper thirties.

Williams’s offensive game opens additional passing opportunities a younger team such as Dallas simply couldn’t provide. Acting as the initiator off a pick and roll, Cleveland’s five out lineups featuring Channing Frye provide complimentary lethal weapons for a Williams kick-out. Sans injury, there are no reasons to believe the same Williams the Mavericks employed just a week ago shouldn’t play as well if not better in Cleveland.

*Assist rate represents the percentage of Field Goals player X assisted on during their floor time. For Example, if five shots were taken while Player X played, and he assisted on one of those shots, his Assist Rate would be 20%.

Conclusions

The title “Best” isn’t awarded, it’s earned. We, as NBA fans, are yet to see Deron Williams achieve this mantle at the backup spot, but predictions made with stats and analysis look positive. Williams’ unique game, resulting from bulk and high basketball IQ, is conducive and complementary to Cleveland’s game. Williams packs an explosiveness not seen among his peers, situational positive shooting Cleveland’s motion offense only should improve, and court vision rivalling the league’s premier passers. The stats exist, all that’s missing are the Cleveland highlight reels confirming what we already know. Williams could claim the title of “best” his first day on the job.
Propaganda

He ain't better than Pat Mills, Livingston, Cory Jo or Lou Will
 
He shouldn't be.
1st he didn't have the team Kerr had they added some bench players he didn't have so that's why I don't hold it against him he didn't do this with the team because it wasn't the same team he did excellent
next
he got himself fired. He wasn't fired because they couldn't "get over the hump"
him being extorted by his mistress for cash and the gay thing got him fired and would've gotten him fired from any job he was working on
.

Definitely forgot about that mistress shit.
 
it's funny how "great" the media dubbed him the second the cavs showed interest in him...get the entire fuck outta here...lemme drop some 'science' about dwill...he's a faggot and will completely disappear in the playoffs

Science says Deron Williams is the NBA’s best backup Point Guard
Posted By: Will GoodallPosted date: February 28, 2017

Deron-Williams-Cavs-GD.png


Cleveland already hosts the league’s best Small Forward, LeBron James. They have the best handles in Kyrie Irving. Most importantly, rings don’t lie; in 2016 Cleveland was the best. Following the wizard David Griffin’s newest acquisition, Cleveland may just notch another “best” in its belt: Deron Williams, the NBA’s best backup Point Guard. A baseless claim, however, is just that. To truly articulate Williams’s superiority data analysis is a must. So let’s get scientific.

Selecting a sample

For comparison I’ve taken a four point guard sample. Though not the average backup’s representation, each guard’s contributions garner league-wide recognition. When assembling this sample, player selection prioritized notable physical attributes, starter quality “Per 36” stat-lines and supporting cast quality. Following these qualifications, I chose:

Shaun Livingston, Golden State Warriors
Patty Mills, San Antonio Spurs
Cory Joseph, Toronto Raptors
Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics

Coincidentally (or perhaps not), each point guard hails from a top six playoff contender. Houston, the noteworthy exclusion, lacks representation as Lou Williams’s stats reflect his Los Angles tenure and Patrick Beverly shares James Harden’s starter’s minutes. Several other names in consideration, and the reason for their exclusion were:

Austin Rivers, Los Angeles Clippers: A combo guard, Rivers’ may serve as the Clippers primary backup guard, but his relatively recent point guard transition shifts his stats. Additionally Rivers’ lack of second unit assistance artificially inflates his stats. Finally Chris Paul’s absence this season forced Rivers into the starting lineup, once again artificially inflating his stats.

J.J. Barea, Dallas Mavericks: Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle ran the point using a rotating door philosophy. Seth Curry, Deron Williams and Barea all played relatively similar minutes throughout the season. Injury, subpar performance and experimentation all muddled the starter-backup line. Therefore, comparing Williams and either individual skews results.

Cameron Payne, Chicago Bulls: Considered a project player, Payne’s numbers don’t reflect performance, a result of Russel Westbrooks ball dominance. Additionally Payne’s injury limited playtime this season. Even once Payne returned, a minutes restriction limited court time.


Physical attributes:
When evaluating a player’s physical ability, this evaluation takes three categories into consideration. Height and wingspan generally correlate with defensive ability. Weight on the other hand gives insight regarding speed and one-on-one ability. The table below tracks each of these stats.


Screen-Shot-2017-02-28-at-7.41.14-PM-1024x275.png

Evaluating physical characteristics alone, Shaun Livingston is the immediately apparent outlier. The league’s tallest point guard, his wingspan and athleticism swallow opposing one guards. Lack of a jumpshot (we’ll explore this later) forces Livingston into the utility guard position, an oversized position player staple. Questions then occur regarding Livingston’s true value. Arguably Livingston’s impact derives from defensive position play, rather than true one guard skills.

On the spectrum’s other end, Marcus Smart’s heft determines his game. Unlike most modern one guards, Smart shoots the three ball poorly. Weight bequests a player charging ability, and Smart is no exception. Playing a Small Forward’s game, Smart’s tools share striking similarity with Williams who, according to Chris Herring of FiveThrityEight, drives 6.8 times per game since January 10th.

Among this sample, Williams occupies average physical tools, though removing physical outlier Shaun Livingston puts him slightly above average. Analyzing wingspan and height alone, Williams’s physical tools technically should provide him with a defensive mismatch. Though Williams’s defensive prowess isn’t highly touted, Williams held opponents to 43.6% shooting, average shooting percentage hovering slightly above 45%. Slightly above average, Williams passes the defensive eye test. Offensively, his size truly comes into play.

Provided Lue runs a smaller lineup, Williams’s size slots him somewhat well at shooting guard. Historically, Williams’s thrives alongside a slashing one guard. Here’s SB Nation’s Josh Bowe on exactly that,

“…Williams size can allow him to defend shooting guards and play with another point guard who is more adept at knifing into a defense off pick and rolls and let Williams happily spot up around the perimeter or hit the open man when the ball is swung his way. Williams was a far better shooter when he was allowed to spot up — he hit 39 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes last season…”

Bowe practically lays out Williams fit alongside Kyrie Irving. The league’s premier slasher, a pick and roll set ran through LeBron and Kyrie creates the exact look Williams looks for. Williams’s addition brings Cleveland another high basketball IQ passer. Cleveland’s bread and butter three-point play, the “Swing Swing,” prioritizes rapid passing around the arc. Traditionally Cleveland swings either driving player to wing or key to half wing to corner (sometimes referred to as “a hockey assist”). However, Williams’s specialty is a different pass. Herring notes that Williams’s recipients of passes that travel more than thirty feet perform at impossibly high efficiency,

“…The Mavs have a whopping 107.1 percent effective field-goal rate* off those [30+ feet] looks — far higher than the league average of 59.6 percent off such passes.”

In essence, Williams needs only situate himself wing-side, playing moderator between a kick out and open man across the court. Though Williams’s size doesn’t exclusively aid his passing ability. When Williams does slot into the swing swing’s shooter role, he’ll be prepared.

Cleveland has a reputation regarding good catch-and-shoot three point shooters. They become elite. Kyle Korver for example, in Atlanta he shot a 44% field goal percentage, making 40% from three. Flash forward and Korver currently shoots 52% from the field, and a scorching 51% from three. Assuming Williams even makes half those gains (say shoot 45% off catch-and-shoot threes), his three point shooting percentage should far surpass the league average. Height should only increase those numbers further.

Take a hypothetical series against the Boston Celtics. Kyrie Irving forces Brad Stevens’ defensive hand. At all times, Stevens should want either Avery Bradley or Marcus Smart hounding Irving, limiting his effectiveness. The result? Either 5’8” Isaiah Thomas or 6’2” Terry Rozier now picks up bulkier, taller Deron Williams, giving Williams a clear mismatch.

*Effective Field Goal Rate is traditional field goal rate, but considers three-point shots 50% more valuable than two point shots, allowing for the number to exceed 100%. Per 36:

When standardizing statistics, the NBA applies the “Per 36” constant. “Per-36” represents a player’s stats assuming pace held for 36 minutes. For example, a player averages 5 points and 3 rebounds in 12 minutes of play. His “Per-36” averages work out to 15 points and 9 rebounds “Per 36”. While not perfect (it’s unlikely a 12 minute per game player could hold pace over triple the normal playtime) the metric does help minimize the difference between starter’s performance and bench players through standardization of minutes. Deron Williams’s stats thus far reflect shared starter’s minutes, requiring a standardization tool’s compensation.

Another option to analyze stats involves “per-possession”, pace of play. “Per 36” standardizes numbers across different paces. For example, tracking the per-possession stats of Tyler Ulis compared to Dante Exum. Phoenix’s 107 possessions a game are almost 15 data points a night more than Utah’s. Where Ulis’s “Per-36” takes average game pace into account, his per-possession numbers are far more erratic. Ironically enough Cleveland holds the league average pace, making their stats most conducive for “per-possession” analysis, though only when comparing amongst themselves. As this study compares cross team, “Per-36” is employed.

Screen-Shot-2017-02-28-at-7.40.25-PM-1024x268.png



“Per 36” only Patty Mills outscores Williams. Using his aforementioned bulk, Williams is a freight train headed towards the basket. His previously mentioned seven drives a game provide nearly eight points off isolation plays, though offensively Williams shines brightest off the pick and roll. Williams scores 89.9 points per 100 possessions as a pick-and-roll ball handler, meaning nearly 45% of driving attempts succeed. It’s important to note that a failed attempt isn’t necessarily a turnover, rather a defender reacquainted themselves with Williams’ path, or the angle wasn’t clear and Williams reset and reassessed the situation.

Stylistically, Williams differs from the majority. Marcus Smart and especially Shaun Livingston play around the midrange, each for their own reasons. Livingston plays foil, while Golden States’ golden boys hoist half court threes, Livingston catches defenders off balance, exploiting the unexpected shot location. Smart’s game channels his court vision and size to either pass from the key, or fake drive to the rim, exposing a clear look. Joseph’s employment requires scoring off the bench. Channeling his inner Kyrie Irving, Joseph’s game either sees open three point looks, or driving and breaking ankles. Patty Mills isn’t just a product of the Spurs system, he is the Spurs system. Kicking the ball around until finding an open look, Mills almost never attacks unless an advantageous situation emerges. As a backup, Williams blend of offensive aggression and precision passing is virtually unheard of.



For the most part, Williams’ three point game was covered during the size explanation, though peer comparison does reveal some noteworthy trends. Excluding Livingston, whose 0% three point shooting results from never taking a shot, premier backup point guards have high variance in three point ability, with Williams representing the average. A general trend to note, fewer attempts generally correlate with heightened percentages, as seen in the Cory Joseph line. Additionally motion provided resulting from all five members range generally sees the same correlation, an explanation for Patty Mills’ near unrealistic “Per 36” shooting numbers. No longer the primary initiator as well as ball handler, I’d wager decreased volume/pressure should directly result in increased shooting percentages.

Scoring ability alone didn’t get Williams signed. LeBron specifically requested a playmaker. In Williams, Cleveland possibly found one, if the numbers hold. Williams, similar to Mills or Smart, flourishes during motion sets or pace and space offenses. When Carlisle implemented a five out offensive scheme (all five players hang on the wings until a drive initiates), Williams’s assist number

Cleveland has scorers. Averaging the League’s third highest points per game, getting the ball in the basket provides little challenge. Cleveland rather lacks many efficient methods for feeding scorers the ball. Per Wagner,

“…The Cavaliers have only three players with an assist rate* over 10 percent: LeBron (41.9), Kyrie Irving (30), and 21-year-old backup point guard Kay Felder.”

Williams’s assist rate fits snugly between James and Irving’s, averaging just under 40%. Assuming one of the three (Williams, James, Irving) occupy the primary ball handler position at any given time, Cleveland’s effective average assist rate should comfortably hover near the upper thirties.

Williams’s offensive game opens additional passing opportunities a younger team such as Dallas simply couldn’t provide. Acting as the initiator off a pick and roll, Cleveland’s five out lineups featuring Channing Frye provide complimentary lethal weapons for a Williams kick-out. Sans injury, there are no reasons to believe the same Williams the Mavericks employed just a week ago shouldn’t play as well if not better in Cleveland.

*Assist rate represents the percentage of Field Goals player X assisted on during their floor time. For Example, if five shots were taken while Player X played, and he assisted on one of those shots, his Assist Rate would be 20%.

Conclusions

The title “Best” isn’t awarded, it’s earned. We, as NBA fans, are yet to see Deron Williams achieve this mantle at the backup spot, but predictions made with stats and analysis look positive. Williams’ unique game, resulting from bulk and high basketball IQ, is conducive and complementary to Cleveland’s game. Williams packs an explosiveness not seen among his peers, situational positive shooting Cleveland’s motion offense only should improve, and court vision rivalling the league’s premier passers. The stats exist, all that’s missing are the Cleveland highlight reels confirming what we already know. Williams could claim the title of “best” his first day on the job.
 
it's funny how "great" the media dubbed him the second the cavs showed interest in him...get the entire fuck outta here...lemme drop some 'science' about dwill...he's a faggot and will completely disappear in the playoffs



Man them 15 a night ain't gonna matter, Lebron ass just better suit up
 
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Fam... When coaches tinker with lineups all season its because they feel like they need to, not to get cute, not to showoff, not cause they dont have shit else to do. Its because they see things they dont like and they trying to fix it. Losing Kevin obviously adds to those problems.

I still dont see how Kerr aint earned a pass from you guys yet. Like I said before, since he been HC, at worst he's been the 2nd best in the league.

Because he tinkered too much. Even with Kevin they didn't know who would run with the 2nd unit or which 2 would group together kevin and klay? or steph? or green?
that's the point
if everyone is defined and they know then when kevin goes down everyone knows what they have to do and then YOU slide in here.
It's how they were able to have success without steph because last year everybody knew their role and minutes only difference is now 2 guys chip in during his absence but everyone else on the team had the same exact role so it could be business as usual.
 
Here you go beatdown, the numbers pretty much reflect you claim...

I'll say the cavs do better than they get credit for when facing the dubs.

.....................



2014-2015 regular season
Jan 9, 2015 Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors 94 - 112 (no Lebron, went to Miami for a trip :lol:)

Feb 26, 2015 Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors 110 - 99


2015 Finals(no Lil Kev and uncle drew after game 1, Shump was playing with a messed up left shoulder )
Game 1
CLE 100 GSW 108
Game 2
CLE 95 GSW 93
Game 3
GSW 91 CLE 96
Game 4(delly and Curry went to the hospital for dehydration)
GSW 103 CLE 82
Game 5
CLE 91 GSW 104
Game 6
GSW105 CLE 97
__________________
2015-2016 regular season

Dec 25, 2015
Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors 83 - 89
Jan 18, 2016 Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors 98 - 132


2016 finals(cheat code curry wasn't 100% for playoffs, iggy back was tight)
Game 1
CLE 89 GSW 104
Game 2
CLE 77 GSW 110
Game 3
GSW 90 CLE 120
Game 4
GSW 108 CLE 97
Game 5
CLE 112 GSW 97
Game 6
GSW 101 CLE 115
Game 7
CLE 93 GSW 89
___________________


2016 - 2017 regular season

Dec 25, 2016 Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors 109 - 108
Jan 16, 2017 Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors 91 - 126
Serious question: why are you or anyone else for that matter posting the last 2 years about GS? I'm under the impression that GS is a different team; i mean adding KD and another starter as well as 3 new bench players gave me that impression :giggle:but in all seriousness i think it really doesn't make any sense to compare the last 2 years GS team with this year..but maybe u can help me understand
 
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Serious question: why are you or anyone else for that matter posting the last 2 years about GS? I'm under the impression that GS is a different team; i mean adding KD and another starter as well as 3 new bench players gave me that impression :giggle:but in all seriousness i think it really doesn't make any sense to compare the last 2 years GS team with this year..but maybe u can help me understand

It doesn't make sense to compare any of the seasons to any of the teams
these 2 teams made so many moves its ridiculous.
both of them.
 
Here you go beatdown, the numbers pretty much reflect you claim...

I'll say the cavs do better than they get credit for when facing the dubs.

.....................



2014-2015 regular season
Jan 9, 2015 Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors 94 - 112 (no Lebron, went to Miami for a trip :lol:)

Feb 26, 2015 Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors 110 - 99


2015 Finals(no Lil Kev and uncle drew after game 1, Shump was playing with a messed up left shoulder )
Game 1
CLE 100 GSW 108
Game 2
CLE 95 GSW 93
Game 3
GSW 91 CLE 96
Game 4(delly and Curry went to the hospital for dehydration)
GSW 103 CLE 82
Game 5
CLE 91 GSW 104
Game 6
GSW105 CLE 97
__________________
2015-2016 regular season

Dec 25, 2015
Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors 83 - 89
Jan 18, 2016 Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors 98 - 132


2016 finals(cheat code curry wasn't 100% for playoffs, iggy back was tight)
Game 1
CLE 89 GSW 104
Game 2
CLE 77 GSW 110
Game 3
GSW 90 CLE 120
Game 4
GSW 108 CLE 97
Game 5
CLE 112 GSW 97
Game 6
GSW 101 CLE 115
Game 7
CLE 93 GSW 89
___________________


2016 - 2017 regular season

Dec 25, 2016 Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors 109 - 108
Jan 16, 2017 Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors 91 - 126
Serious question: why are you or anyone else for that matter posting the last 2 years about GS? I'm under the impression that GS is a different team; i mean adding KD and another starter as well as 3 new bench players gave me that impression :giggle:but in all seriousness i think it really doesn't make any sense to compare the last 2 years GS team with this year..but maybe u can help me understand
 
Dwill got Nets and Mavericks fans mad:lol:

Dude is bum status
:lol: dude a bum but they mad he's got released and went to the Cavs.
The Jazz wanted him back also, so I'd like to guess he ain't that much of a bum.
I'm sure if you ask him, he'd say "those fans who's complain wear colors of bums ass teams"
 
:lol: dude a bum but they mad he's got released and went to the Cavs.
The Jazz wanted him back also, so I'd like to guess he ain't that much of a bum.
I'm sure if you ask him, he'd say "those fans who's complain wear colors of bums ass teams"

You'll see how he plays when it counts
 
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I hope they make it in as the 8th seed..it would be an interesting series with them playing the Cavs....

I know right.

They got a big game against Indy today.

Playoff race in the east is getting interesting. Washington has a chance to close the gap for first with one game left against the Cavs.
 
I know right.

They got a big game against Indy today.

Playoff race in the east is getting interesting. Washington has a chance to close the gap for first with one game left against the Cavs.
I know right...Cavs heat series would be the highest rated in the first round and very interesting..i think boston Washington would be interesting as well
 
:lol: dude a bum but they mad he's got released and went to the Cavs.
The Jazz wanted him back also, so I'd like to guess he ain't that much of a bum.
I'm sure if you ask him, he'd say "those fans who's complain wear colors of bums ass teams"

I talked to him once and he would probably say those exact words. Dude is an asshole like that lol.
 
Someone explain to me what the hell is going on in Miami, please.

These dudes are playing elite right now.

Fast players who play fast. Just too much speed across the roster. Opponents are left with the choice to either play defense harder then they want to, or hope that the shots dont fall.

Oh and a bunch of guys who are starving to make a name for themselves.
 
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