US airlines about to be hit with ‘tsunami’ of pilot retirements

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Washington DCCNN — The US airline industry is about to be hit with a “tsunami of pilot retirements” that will further the nation’s pilot shortage, limiting flight availability for passengers and putting upward pressure on fares, an industry group told Congress Wednesday.

“The pilot shortage has resulted in a collapse in air service,” Faye Malarkey Black, president and CEO of the Regional Airline Association, told a House Transportation and Infrastructure subcommittee hearing in prepared remarks.

More than half of pilots working today hit the mandatory retirement age of 65 in the next 15 years and younger pilots are not making up for those aging out.

The “severe and ongoing pilot shortage” is nationwide, Black noted: 42 states have less airline service now than before the pandemic, 136 airports have lost at least a quarter of their service, and airlines have completely cut off flights to 11 airports in smaller cities that connect to larger hubs.

More than 500 planes belonging to regional airlines are sitting idle without enough pilots to fly them, and those that do fly are used as much as 40% less than in the past.

Most airlines have yet to fully restore the service cuts they made during the pandemic, even in the face of record bookings at some carriers. That combination of limited capacity and strong demand is leading to fares that are significantly above pre-pandemic levels.

Black’s group represents the regional carriers which provide feeder service for the larger airlines such as American, United (UAL)and Delta (DAL). Those major airlines are also facing shortages of pilots, but they’ve been hiring pilots away from the regional carriers, causing an even worse problem for passengers and cities which depend on them.

The large airlines hired more than 13,000 pilots in 2022, according to Black, nearly all from the smaller carriers that the RAA represents. More pilots earned licenses last year than ever before, but those 9,500 new entrants were not enough to keep pace with demand.

Black said the cost of training for a new pilot can be $80,000, with total costs reaching $200,000 when combined with the cost of a bachelor’s degree. She said federal financial aid is insufficient to give poorer students a chance become pilots.

“Unlike other career paths that require additional professional credentialing, such as doctors and lawyers, accredited pilot training programs can’t access additional lending available through graduate aid programs to cover the higher costs,” she said in her prepared remarks.

The demand for pilots will continue to grow, Black forecasts. Fewer than 8% of the pilot workforce are under the age of 30, and many are entering the cockpit as a second career.

“These pilots were long called to the career path but were only able to surmount the financial obstacles later in life after they had built up their own savings and credit histories,” Black said in her prepared remarks.

But the union representing most US airline pilots urged Congress against changing pilot qualification and training standards in an attempt to address the pilot shortage, saying some ideas would compromise safety.

“This is no time to weaken safety standards,” Jason Ambrosi, President of the Air Line Pilots Association told the House Transportation subcommittee on aviation.

Thanks to requirements put in place after a series of airline crashes, “passenger fatalities have dropped by 99.8 percent,” he said.

“This pilot training framework has also produced tens of thousands more pilots over the last decade than airlines needed,” Ambrosi said, pushing back on arguments from the Regional Airline Association and others in the industry that there are not enough qualified pilots.

“The United States has certificated nearly 64,000 airline transport pilots since July of 2013 while airlines have hired to fill approximately 40,000 positions,” he added.

The Regional Airline Association, representing carriers that connect major cities to smaller regional airports, noted that the airlines are not the only destination for pilots with that qualification and warned of a significant pilot shortage that will get worse with a “tsunami” of retirements. Companies that fly business or charter planes are also hiring, RAA chief Black said.

But Ambrosi argued that the airlines are under-staffed right now because they are not providing pilots adequate pay and quality of life conditions, and because of management decisions made during the pandemic.

“The current labor market is complicated by pilots moving among carriers as they leave airlines that offer less attractive careers for those offering better pay and quality of life.”

He also pushed back on arguments for raising the pilot retirement age.

A proposal to increase the mandatory retirement age by two years to 67 would cause airline scheduling headaches, he said. Senior airline pilots frequently fly international routes, but international rules have an age 65 limit. When pressed on other pilot positions, such as charter aircraft, allowing pilots to work until age 70, Ambrosi said he did not represent those workers.

The hearing also discussed a significant lack of diversity among pilots who tend to be mostly male and mostly white, and potential ways to address that issue, which could also help address any pilot shortages.

There was a widely acknowledged shortage of pilots even before the pandemic. The airlines received billions of dollars of taxpayers’ money during the pandemic, with a prohibition not to layoff staff, in an effort to make sure the shortage didn’t get worse. But to save money, many airlines offered buyouts and early retirement packages to trim costs during the pandemic. The pandemic also interrupted the pipeline of new pilots.


 
Been hearing about this a lot. Military aviators (rotary wing and fixed wing) have been leaving service at first opportunity for this. Doesn’t pay to try a 20+ year military career when the airlines will train and rate you on their equipment while paying 100k or more out the gate. The military fucked up with the 10 year obligation for flight training. People are so pissed by the end of that time they resign (not go to the reserves) and that talent is lost.

Even aviation maintainers with A&P licenses they got on the military dime are seeing good money walking right in the door.
 
Been hearing about this a lot. Military aviators (rotary wing and fixed wing) have been leaving service at first opportunity for this. Doesn’t pay to try a 20+ year military career when the airlines will train and rate you on their equipment while paying 100k or more out the gate. The military fucked up with the 10 year obligation for flight training. People are so pissed by the end of that time they resign (not go to the reserves) and that talent is lost.

Even aviation maintainers with A&P licenses they got on the military dime are seeing good money walking right in the door.
Meanwhile.... Southwest Airlines pilots voted to strike on Friday





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Note however, that despite the “shortage” they don’t make it easier to become a pilot. The military does this same shit. But they don’t make it easier to enter the career field. In the Army, (can’t speak for any other service) u get 2 chances to pass the SIFT (flight test) before u can even begin the packet to apply. If u can’t you are barred for LIFE. not even getting into silly games played once u do make it to the school house or talk about how u only get a couple years of actual flying before you are stuck at a desk for the rest of your career. And as for the civilian side it appears you can just pay and get the necessary hours needed to earn your license. Point being, why don’t they create pipelines that are larger and allow for a larger pool of potential candidates? U never know who has a knack for flying. I think this applies to medical personnel too. We have a shortage of doctors and nurses don’t we?
 
If I had not stopped flying for over a decade I'd probably have the 1500 hours required for the airlines. But it's a brutal lifestyle where you spend years making poverty wages at the regional airlines before getting a chance at the majors. Everything is based on seniority, so even if you're a 25 year captain at one airline and you're furloughed, you start at the very bottom of the seniority list at the new airline as a First Officer. You also have the worst schedules and routes the lower in seniority you are.

When I started flying in 2002 the retirement age was 60, but was raised to 65 a few years later because of pilot shortages. The current shortage is forcing the debate on whether it should be raised to 67 or 70. One of my old flight instructors is a captain with a major airline and is praying they raise the retirement age before he's forced out in two years.

Interestingly, a guy from my old airport was recently hired by a major and is currently flying 777s. He owns a business in the medical field and is close to sixty, which surprised me given how close he is to retirement age. The flight schools are flooded right now because of the shortage. An interesting statistic is that only 20% of students that start pilot training ever obtain their Private Pilot license.
 
It costs a fortune to obtain your license here in the states and acquire the necessary hours. As noted above, once you do make it, you're slumming int for years with the regional and paying your dues.

National carriers in other countries have heavily invested flight school academies and are developing a pipeline of quality young talent. They have been way ahead of the curve on this.
 
at the end of the day it all boils down to the money (pay). as someone noted above, this is similar to what we are seeing in healthcare. if you as an employer don't pay, we the ones with the skills won't play. it's very simple. I just left a $100,000 paying job at walgreens (32 hour work week) to do per diem because the working conditions are terrible. CVS pays more...so if i am going to bust my ass i would rather go to CVS. You can't expect me to work under these shitty conditions when you are giving your CEO, bonuses of upwards of 20 million. Let the CEO pick up the shifts you can't cover. Corporations if they're going to survive this new world economy are going to have to restructure from bottom up. all those useless middle management corporate leeches are gonna have to go. All the corporate bonuses and perks are gonna have to go. There will have to be severe paycuts at the corporate levels from the CEO to the district supervisor. they need to understand, the only people propping these corporations up are the worker bees and if you don't pay them well, well, they won't work. you will end up overworking the ones that can't leave now and eventually even they will get fed up and leave.
 
A decent Cessna 172 with an instructor is close to $300 an hour here in the DC area. With an average of 60 hours to obtain the PPL, you're talking almost $18k for your first license. Then you have the instrument and commercial ratings, followed by the flight instructor certificates. Then most people who choose the common route of flight instructing need almost two years to build the required 1500 hours to be eligible for the Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) rating that allows you to fly Part 121.
 
They had a pilot shortage back in the late 80s cuz the WW2/Korean War era guys were beginning to retire.

Now the Vietnam era guys are out the door.

The airline industry knew decades ago that this was coming.

They made no effort to introduce apprentice training in public schools going back to the 80s until today to get kid’s interested in aviation.

They had plenty of opportunities to invest money into schools thru-out the country (especially Black communities) to keep from getting into this situation.

The blame is all on the airline industry.
 
They had a pilot shortage back in the late 80s cuz the WW2/Korean War era guys were beginning to retire.

Now the Vietnam era guys are out the door.

The airline industry knew decades ago that this was coming.

They made no effort to introduce apprentice training in public schools going back to the 80s until today to get kid’s interested in aviation.

They had plenty of opportunities to invest money into schools thru-out the country (especially Black communities) to keep from getting into this situation.

The blame is all on the airline industry.
My aunts both have been at Delta since the mid 80s and that was always the running joke about the age of the pilots. A large number of modern day military pilots aren't jumping to be airline pilots once their done they done with flying.
 
quiet as its kept I heard a lot of pilots were lost during the plandemic...

and it more to do with that then retirement... and lots lost their jobs

because of those unlawful vaccine mandates.

I heard the other day some passengers were stuck because they could NOT

find a pilot.. terrible leadership!!
 
at the end of the day it all boils down to the money (pay). as someone noted above, this is similar to what we are seeing in healthcare. if you as an employer don't pay, we the ones with the skills won't play. it's very simple. I just left a $100,000 paying job at walgreens (32 hour work week) to do per diem because the working conditions are terrible. CVS pays more...so if i am going to bust my ass i would rather go to CVS. You can't expect me to work under these shitty conditions when you are giving your CEO, bonuses of upwards of 20 million. Let the CEO pick up the shifts you can't cover. Corporations if they're going to survive this new world economy are going to have to restructure from bottom up. all those useless middle management corporate leeches are gonna have to go. All the corporate bonuses and perks are gonna have to go. There will have to be severe paycuts at the corporate levels from the CEO to the district supervisor. they need to understand, the only people propping these corporations up are the worker bees and if you don't pay them well, well, they won't work. you will end up overworking the ones that can't leave now and eventually even they will get fed up and leave.
Yea the crazy shit is these millenials aint putting up with half the shit our generation put up with,

the minute they even since a little fuckery, they are GONE bruh... on some fuck this place shit...
 
at the end of the day it all boils down to the money (pay). as someone noted above, this is similar to what we are seeing in healthcare. if you as an employer don't pay, we the ones with the skills won't play. it's very simple.




 
Yea the crazy shit is these millenials aint putting up with half the shit our generation put up with,

the minute they even since a little fuckery, they are GONE bruh... on some fuck this place shit...
which is both a good and a bad thing. a good thing in the sense that they are not allowing themselves to be exploited. bad in the sense that now everyone wants to be a chief. no one wants to be an indian. there is a very palpable sense of delusion of grandeur among this demographic that they can all become "bosses" and make beaucoup money in a few weeks and jet off to ibiza and photos on the beach about their lifestyle. what they fail to realize is,

1. not everyone will or can become a boss. some people are just meant to be worker bees.
2. instagram is 99 percent smoke and mirrors
3. the kind of lifestyle they're aiming for but the amount of effort they're willing to put into it isn't sustainable. the math won't math.
 
which is both a good and a bad thing. a good thing in the sense that they are not allowing themselves to be exploited. bad in the sense that now everyone wants to be a chief. no one wants to be an indian. there is a very palpable sense of delusion of grandeur among this demographic that they can all become "bosses" and make beaucoup money in a few weeks and jet off to ibiza and photos on the beach about their lifestyle. what they fail to realize is,

1. not everyone will or can become a boss. some people are just meant to be worker bees.
2. instagram is 99 percent smoke and mirrors
3. the kind of lifestyle they're aiming for but the amount of effort they're willing to put into it isn't sustainable. the math won't math.
Facts but I dont blame them, I blame the muthafuckas who came up with the,

EVERYBODY GETS A TROPHY concept...

I admire the balls not to take the shit, buuuut whats not good is they dont develop the tough skin

that comes with fighting through the bullshit, you dont have to be on your knees like a pussy,

but Learn how to stay fight and finesse a situation to your liking, that only comes with putting up

with bullshit till you learn how to manipulate it to your benefit.

Too many of my young heads giving up too quickly, with nothing to back them up, but an

attitude that will not pay the bills...

Nothing wrong with thinkin BIG you supposed to that, but something wrong with not having a game plan

and not having the backbone to deal with a difficult situations..
 
Facts but I dont blame them, I blame the muthafuckas who came up with the,

EVERYBODY GETS A TROPHY concept...

I admire the balls not to take the shit, buuuut whats not good is they dont develop the tough skin

that comes with fighting through the bullshit, you dont have to be on your knees like a pussy,

but Learn how to stay fight and finesse a situation to your liking, that only comes with putting up

with bullshit till you learn how to manipulate it to your benefit.

Too many of my young heads giving up too quickly, with nothing to back them up, but an

attitude that will not pay the bills...

Nothing wrong with thinkin BIG you supposed to that, but something wrong with not having a game plan

and not having the backbone to deal with a difficult situations..
yep, basically
 
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