Priv keep us posted on zecco, im thinking about going with them as well on another account. anybody see that 20% run on coinz yesterday while it dipping like a mF today hehe
***Tripster's 2008 Investments (Ongoing thread)***
- Thread starter Tripster
- Start date
hard to make a dollar these days, things are settling, the financials are getitng back to where they shoudl be (lower) & most commodities have taken a lil beating since oil is sitting at a 2 mo low, got coals/nat. gas/ag/oils/golds&metals/ all getting a good beating after a nice move up. Dow has rallied, but the market confidence to me is eroding, it's a bit harder to pick a winner as winners one day are losers the next, stocks like HK wich ran to 54, now sit under 40. It's 7 months into the year & it's hasn't been pretty for most sectors, we'll see how things go....I'm holding some ERII through the 8/6 earings report, seems like they have alot going for them (if that counts these days)
On that CALM pickup, think it's a good move, i'd like to see CALM take out the 52 week high, it's flirted w/ it to no avail. I'd keep an eye on any ernings report they have upcoming, as it may run,
goodl luck..
PoPo can you tell us why it is so many stocks drop off after the good earnings reports? we well us newbies all think like they just reported major gains over last year, etc so it should jump but from what I can tell they rarely do? and with speculation that oil may drop to <100 would you short those stocks affected?
Good question bruh. You see what happened with POT and MOS? Double and quadruple earnings + positive guidance and the stocks went down. I guess its a combination of sellers and shorters. Like Popo said market confidence is probably eroding. I won't short but I might buy options just to hedge this. And go ahead and get gold and silver in physical.
I'm feeling the financial sector will do well this week because undoubtedly gdp and unemployment numbers will be dilluted.
The housing bill...man that shit is insane. I can't believe I agreed with some republicans on that shit. These mfs gave the treasury a blank check...that shit is gonna hit the fan y'all. Inflation is inevitable.
Popo or anyone familiar with it, Merlin Lynch dillluted their shares correct? I'm not sure what all happened with that...I need it explained in laymans terms.
thanks shiit i had been meaning to ask but we saw this shiit happening even when things were cool (relativly speaking) its a very common deal. im curious on the other areas you mentioned. Maybe some of our pros will have time to hit us back tomm.
Kayanation joined the google group !!!!! He is always trying to teach/share etc so im excited about that.
Here's the thing, when you have these companies that are experiencing superior growth in comparison to the broad markets, they will not let the earnings run the stock more, they need these growth sectors to remain volatile as these are the sectors where money is being made. Think about it, there are two ways to make money, you go long or go short. There are sectors that you go short in & make boatloads, ie financials, then there are sectors that run heavy(Ags/Nat Gas) & then at the top they will short for a "natural" pullback. When you see stock move 40-60% in a 1/2 years time, a pull back is sometimes necessary, if you look at long term charts for the AGs they are allon a near 45 degree angle to the upside,,,,BUT,,,most have experienced drastic pullbacks while moving on the upside. The Ags will. due to fantastic earnings & outlook continue to be BOTH volatile & gainers in this market, smart traders/investors, buy them on the dips. Like today you see the sector w. a nice bounce back up 5+%. if you're in AG be long there, the sector will be great for a extended duration of time.....sometimes the market acts apposite it will walk a stock up to earnings & then bring it down on earnigs regardles of how the earnings were...last Q we had AGs go up i think 18 of 19 consecutive days, then eranings dropped & then the AGs dropped as well....study your charts & watch the LONG TERM trends,,,,watch you moving Averages & trendlines & you'll see where your stocks are heading...
As for MER dilution...MER as LEH did jus handed out more shares & like LEH they will be going lower. See you can't trust any of these financial companies because you have NO idea what thier assets are truly worth, I've been bearish on the finaincials & willl continue to be so until i see consolidation & failures run rampant in the sector, until then they will have falso runs, but if you look at thier charts long term,,they are all sinking...
Hang in there with AGs & Nat GAs ...those still in on PAL. man...that's been a painful ride,,,,Metal prices have becomes increacingly volatile..huge swings..as gold dips lower ABX(& all gold Majors) may get to a nice bargain point,..
That ERII pick is dropping some good PRs in regards to work in China using their product....lets see earings...MAybe this can be another TITN..that we dropped here ar $17-$19, now $28+
I gotta say I called that shit. Media said they reported MORE jobs created. No way in hell. These folk come with whatever number they want to and sell it to the public. Really makes me want to take earnings here. The second week of August will probably be the opposite of this week...whenever they announce the number of forclosures its over.
I'm no pro but I always have a willingness to learn as well as share....
Wattup Kayanation. Bruh, whats up with these banks? Merrill Lynch sold shit 20 cent on the dollar?
On the dilution in laymans terms,,,Simple enough, more shares you issue, less they "should" be worth. When you issue shares to raise money, you've gone ahead & increased the Outstanding Shares issued in a company, but you have not made the shares worth any bit more....
By contrast, when a company/or execs buyback shares, they REDUCE the amount of shares out, thus causing LESS shares to exist for trading...
Supply/Demand....less shares, often more demand, higher price...
more shares, less demand, lower price,
that's why it's always important to know the share structure of a company you go into
Dilution is never good!!!
By contrast, when a company/or execs buyback shares, they REDUCE the amount of shares out, thus causing LESS shares to exist for trading...
Supply/Demand....less shares, often more demand, higher price...
more shares, less demand, lower price,
that's why it's always important to know the share structure of a company you go into
Dilution is never good!!!
Popo, both posts very insightful man. Thank you.
So what happened made absolutely no sense. They dilluted their shares and the stock went up +2 bucks. Crazy. I'm looking to short MER in particular and I also wanted to get SKF but I have to seek a good entry point.
CHK and XOM are reporting tomorrow. I'm sure they will have exceptional earnings but I can't predict how the market will react. Up is down...down is sideways.\
One dude was holding SLW. Metals are down and I'm getting back in. This euphoria in financials will not last much longer.
So what happened made absolutely no sense. They dilluted their shares and the stock went up +2 bucks. Crazy. I'm looking to short MER in particular and I also wanted to get SKF but I have to seek a good entry point.
CHK and XOM are reporting tomorrow. I'm sure they will have exceptional earnings but I can't predict how the market will react. Up is down...down is sideways.\
One dude was holding SLW. Metals are down and I'm getting back in. This euphoria in financials will not last much longer.
Remeber that the downward spiral is gradual,,,when BSC fell, we all looked at LEH & LEH rebuffed concerns & prodded forward, then sure enought their time came,,& the fall began even after they somehow managed to convince some to buy @ 28/sh in a secondary, it continued to fall....the fall in all the financial will not be sudden, it will be over time, & when they start to touch new 52 week lows,then a new resistance develops...these companies have nothing to stand on with mysterious assets that no one can figure out their worth,....MER is now the "next" & it too will gradually fall by the wayside....I expect AXP & BAC to have issues as well if credit card defaults start to ramp up higher,,,,the sector is a screaming short, BUT you have to be patient as it will take it's time & have upward blips...
As for the poster who put Fannie UP & simply says "buy, thank me later" where was that when FNM was 7.00??? When you drop a pick man, least have the decency to give some details......
calm is about to take out the 52 week high today, up almost 7%
too bad abx isn't doin so hot but im in it for a long term.
too bad abx isn't doin so hot but im in it for a long term.
ERII may even have a bit more firepower...once those earnings come out will be a better guage...
congrats on that CALM play,,,good co
Good lookin PoPo, I remember you talking to us on the shares outstanding before. Coinz was south of 2.00 last week, other than that i didnt look at much on my watchlist.
what do yall think about stj? im thinkin of pickin up shares tomorrow.
I take it you're more a trader than investor, the AG sector went down due to the corn price drop, stil the bigger picture is still good for this sector...good luck which ever way you go with it
Man...its just this is down 70 points since June 17th. Nothing has changed its still a great company I checked out the earnings and everything but the market is way too irrational. I would have made more money shorting than holding it and that messed up b/c the company is great.
The subprime housing crisis is nowhere near over. I will not put money into worthless financials. I'm picking up SKF toward the end of the day b/c FRE is reporting tomorrow. Huge writedowns expected.
So...I dunno man. I'm down 500 on a 2000 investment. Shoulda set stop loss but thats on me. I'll see what tomorrow is...
i took a beating w/abx today 
is pot a good buy, saw it there at 168 for a moment. but not sure if its going to continue to slide.
is pot a good buy, saw it there at 168 for a moment. but not sure if its going to continue to slide.
Today should be better. Anybody getting in on SKF on this news of huge loss from FRE? Its at 112 I think I'll pick up shares soon as the market opens.
I hate the media. They were pushing for a sector rotation from AGs to financials. That shit ain't right. Spreading rumors that a large hedge fund was taking profits from AGs without any confimation. Accelerating fear...cheerleading financials....
I hate the media. They were pushing for a sector rotation from AGs to financials. That shit ain't right. Spreading rumors that a large hedge fund was taking profits from AGs without any confimation. Accelerating fear...cheerleading financials....
The market is setting a trap for those buying the hype of financials, this whole muse about sector rotation out of things into financials is a farce, truth is Oil has really pulled back causing most commodities to pull back with it(grains/ags/metals/etc). Personally, I think you have to have the audacity & backbone to filter the noise out there, right now Ags are still strong & will be strong. The first time i bought POT was at 147 back in Feb, a day or so later it was 105, look these swings will occur in the "good" gainers, & many get shook, if you look at the charts you see the volatility is sick, these hedgies have their fun, but in the end things come back to where they need to be. What they are doing is swinging market caps of these big co's by the billions in a few days time...for you being down $500, or 25% is not that bad....I assure you some are sitting on much bigger downward positions right now,,,but,,i'd advise you to just ask yourself if you think selling AGs NOW is the way to go, that that is the BEST move you can make..
hang in there folks,,,this is just the tide of the market, gets rough at times,..sometimes you got to step away from it...
Your right. Havent seen me here much because I had to step away before I did something emotional...like sell. I think this is a big fakeout also. Gas dropped a lil at the pump and people I know are talking about going to get some of these SUV's onsale
cause gas is going back to $2. Crazywhich one of the ags is best out of mos, agu, and pot?
I'd say AGU should outperform the rest. I got some shares of AGU but really, they are three are good investments
Going to go w/ AGU as well, believe they will outperform the sector..good company w/ expaning breadth...growing at a good pace///
Seems to be a correction going on here. Newbies I would suggest holding out until prices stabalize. Today is just horrible.
I did make a quick profit on SKF yesterday. In at 113 out at 121. Didn't help much b/c of the loss I'm sitting on. Oil may fall to 100 and commodities follow it down but not up
. New dudes its alot of volatility...if you guys are getting in I hope you have an appetite for instability.
I did make a quick profit on SKF yesterday. In at 113 out at 121. Didn't help much b/c of the loss I'm sitting on. Oil may fall to 100 and commodities follow it down but not up
. New dudes its alot of volatility...if you guys are getting in I hope you have an appetite for instability.In an era of volatility and instability remember this...lay low and string together a couple base hits. Going for that home run or that Tecmo 100 yard touchdown pass will bite you in the ass right now. Flip a few hundred here and there while risking little money buying options. Let them bitches go in a day or two the minute they go green, rinse and repeat. That'll help absorb any losses you're taking right now, and will slowly increase that bank to get you ready for the rally if/when it comes. Have patience and show discipline, it's still some winners out there! DO NOT QUIT NOW! Just lay low, and work the drought...
bought 40 shares of agu at 79.50, i just started buying stocks 3 weeks ago and im gettin hit hard with abx.
bought 55 shares at 44.15
only good thing i did was buy 67 share of calm at 37.27
will abx pick back up??
bought 40 shares of agu at 79.50, i just started buying stocks 3 weeks ago and im gettin hit hard with abx.
bought 55 shares at 44.15
only good thing i did was buy 67 share of calm at 37.27
will abx pick back up??
With gold having slipped. ABX & the gold majors have pulled back as well as most ALL metals, thing is to me this is one of the most blatant false rally in financials I have ever seen, so financials have moved up & sentiment to then had turned positive on ZERO sound fundamentals, it's hype driven & hedge funds are going to make a mint out of it, they have pulled back ALL commodities to a point where MOST are such bargains, most have pulled back to near 200 day MA's. AGU, will be fine it's just hurt a bit, http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGU&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01766195628 great stock often suffer pullbacks in excess of 30%, th elong term chart shows it's a simple case of rinse & repeat, it's shed heavy before only to find it's way back & the hedgies load up ...i truly doubt we're seeing anything different. Now gold, has pulled back quite hard, much to coincide w/ Oil's slide, http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$gold&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01766195628 it too has had drastic pullbacks, yet long term it's up...now you can balieve 1 of 2 things, 1. Financials are the place to be & they will be the market outperformers for years to come...or 2. We are in as a world population in a commodity crunch were as it gets pulled from the ground it's being used for something. be it oil/copper/grains etc.
I tend to believe that that which the earth supplies MAN can only deplete & thus naturally the worth increases, & persoanlly i think financials will find a new top & then get shorted the heck out of by the big boys...not until banks can validate their books fully & start earning profits (honestly HOW is a bank going to turn a profit in this market??, they IPO market is non existent so the Investment Banking model is near dead right now, you have them coming up w/ Creative means to make a new dollar & that kind of asset is poor. I prefer companies that can validate thier assets, HARD assets, be it copper/gold/platinum etc.
I am going to stick w/ the metals/commodities/ & need based companies through this murk, when all the dust settles, those companies will still make money & the price will figure itself out, the market is always crooked, the greatest exaple of this is realizing that gold prices don't adjust for inflation, so a dollar in gold in say 1980 is equivalent to a dollar in gold today, even though a dollar in 1980 is worth so much more than a dollar today....the system is crooked, & controlled, but you have to place the best guesses & stand firm behind them sometimes,
good luck with your holdings, sometimes you end up waiting, think of it this way you could have a ton of worst companies than AGU & ABX..lol..I'm really a AGU fan,,we'll see...CALM is doing it's thing, look for 50s soon, then likely higher, they are turning a nice profit on them eggs..
And as for PAL...well..stock price looks terrible, Platinum & palladium prices look horrible as well...PAL managed to do quite well on an EPS basis for the first 2Qs of 2008, & looks like it will post a positive EPS for full 2008, Alot will hang on how Platinum & Palladium prices move, the US Auto slump is a contributor to the slide BUT, realize that WORLDWIDE sales of autos are doing rather well..& likely the market will catch on, a bottom is lurking here folks on the commodity side,,,there is no commodity bubble & those who would lead you to believe that simply are missing a worldwide economic picture...forget about the US..growth in the US is dead, you have to look at the world & growing nations as where companies will make thier major money from....
good luck to all here,,hang in there & don't get too down on these declines, know what you own & why you own it. Sometimes,,,it just takes a while!!
thanks for the advice, im sure these companies will be good in the long run.
Man I had to read that 2...3 times,crazy but I got it. Still holding HK,JRCC,COIN,PAL. Confident and in for the long haul.
And oh yeah BTT.V(best guess)
Similar threads
