*** Severe Weather Outbreak Expected Tomorrow 4/2/2024. Significant Tornado Threat Possible For Ohio***

[4 Dimensional]

I do...
15% chance of something happening means that there is an 85% chance of it NOT happening.

It’s not simply a matter of will or will not happening.

That’s one of the biggest misconceptions in meterology and it’s never explained well by meteorologists.

Whenever the SPC issues these percentages, they are not saying there will be a 15% percent change of a tornado happening and an 85% chance of it not happening.

They are saying within that 15%, there will be chances of severe long-lived tornadoes that could reach EF-3 or EF-4 status. There will be numerous tornado warnings issued within that area could pose a significant threat to property and lives.

Here is additional explanation if you’re curious.

Tornado Threat Description

Ohio was recently in a 2-5% tornado threat and ended getting slammed with several in which one was a EF-3.

So, while the SPC does their best to mark the mostly likely areas, it still doesn’t mean that people in the lower percentages are safe from the threat.

However, forecast changes in real-time because in the end Mother Nature will do as she pleases. But I would NEVER take 15% probability lightly. That’s attached to tornado outbreaks. Like, 5-10 tornadoes within the hashed zone.

 

[4 Dimensional]

The SPC seems like it want to pull back the severe threat some because there is still a lot of uncertainty because of the rain that passed through the area this morning. It stabilized and cooled the atmosphere.

====================================



...OH/TN Valley area through this evening...
Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across
WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of
storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead
storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though
this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it
encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border.
The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone,
where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of
65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent
supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be
strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs
with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2.

Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing
TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern
KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely
interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of
OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level
moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of
the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward
southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early
afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer
shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel
trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the
potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level
warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As
previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe
threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the
south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and
expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the
tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY.

 

[Famous1]

It’s not simply a matter of will or will not happening.

That’s one of the biggest misconceptions in meterology and it’s never explained well by meteorologists.

Whenever the SPC issues these percentages, they are not saying there will be a 15% percent change of a tornado happening and an 85% chance of it not happening.

They are saying within that 15%, there will be chances of severe long-lived tornadoes that could reach EF-3 or EF-4 status. There will be numerous tornado warnings issued within that area could pose a significant threat to property and lives.

Here is additional explanation if you’re curious.

Tornado Threat Description

Ohio was recently in a 2-5% tornado threat and ended getting slammed with several in which one was a EF-3.

So, while the SPC does their best to mark the mostly likely areas, it still doesn’t mean that people in the lower percentages are safe from the threat.

However, forecast changes in real-time because in the end Mother Nature will do as she pleases. But I would NEVER take 15% probability lightly. That’s attached to tornado outbreaks. Like, 5-10 tornadoes within the hashed zone.

i went and looked and grabbed some comprehension while i was over there... Category is moderate meaning: widespread severe storms likely,long lived widespread and intense. Of said storms, 15% may have the capability of producing EF-2 or above tornadoes....i understand now..thanks.

 

[easy_b]

 

[Camille]

Its raining here again. I have a single story home and windows in every room. I'm steady praying the storms dissipate with no damage and no flooding.

 

[Camille]

 

[easy_b]

If you don’t believe in climate change, you are fool. These storms are getting stronger and stronger and stronger.Ccc

 

[4 Dimensional]

Here is a good graphic on how instability works.

Right now, you see precipitation leaving Ohio, but behind it is clear skys. That allows the sun to warm the environment up causing convective heating. Usually as long as the sun stays covered, convective heating is less likely. The blue arrows shows where the instability is headed. The other term for that is called CAPE. Convective Available Potential Energy. High CAPE means more energy for storms.

 

[4 Dimensional]

It's starting to get active out there. Tornadoes were reported in Kentucky and Tennessee. Very dangerous storms and moving very fast.


upload image

 

[4 Dimensional]

Storms are approaching southwest Ohio and moving northeast quickly.


upload image

 

[4 Dimensional]

The event doesn’t seem to live up to the expectation. Still to early to call, but some ingredient was missing

 

[easy_b]

The event doesn’t seem to live up to the expectation. Still to early to call, but some ingredient was missing

I have a strong feeling that later tonight everything is going to come together, but let’s see what happens in a few hours

 

[Mask]

Here is a good graphic on how instability works.

Right now, you see precipitation leaving Ohio, but behind it is clear skys. That allows the sun to warm the environment up causing convective heating. Usually as long as the sun stays covered, convective heating is less likely. The blue arrows shows where the instability is headed. The other term for that is called CAPE. Convective Available Potential Energy. High CAPE means more energy for storms.

My ninja is backkkk like MJ with the 45

 

[4 Dimensional]

I have a strong feeling that later tonight everything is going to come together, but let’s see what happens in a few hours

maybe elsewhere, but for Ohio it looks like they might escape.

 

[DC_Dude]

 

[4 Dimensional]

They're up.

You can monitor them here.

Level-3 radars

NWS Level III Radar System Site Status

Level-2 radars

NWS Level II Radar Receive Status

 

[TheFuser]

 

[TheFuser]

 

[TheFuser]

 

[TheFuser]

 

[DC_Dude]

 

[4 Dimensional]

Wild shit

 

[TheFuser]

So far so good with these storms. A bunch of touchdowns but no major tornadoes... yet.

 

[easy_b]

So far so good with these storms. A bunch of touchdowns but no major tornadoes... yet.

It depends on your location

 

[BrownTurd]

I am in Atlanta and I can hear the tornado and it sounds close. I got my toddler in the basement with me and the wife. Shit is mad loud

 

[julian]

Motherfucker a tornado warning just issued for my area the fucker is on the ground less than 2 miles from my neighborhood in Walton Co Ga. The news just said the debris is showing up to 10,000 ft into the atmosphere.

 

[BrownTurd]

Motherfucker a tornado warning just issued for my area the fucker is on the ground less than 2 miles from my neighborhood in Walton Co Ga. The news just said the debris is showing up to 10,000 ft into the atmosphere.

It sounded like a bunch of trains or airplanes

 

[julian]

It sounded like a bunch of trains or airplanes

I got huge winds side ways rain but the tornado went far enough east to miss us

 

[bham_brotha]

Conyers area definitely took a hit. I was watching the news and that debris ball was clearly visible on the radar.

 

[ansatsusha_gouki]

@ansatsusha_gouki

That storm was over in two minutes..

 

[godofwine]

That storm was over in two minutes..

You good up there in cleveland? It seems the storms are down in Mansfield, south of where I am in Medina. I think we might be good for now

 

[TheFuser]

Yall GA and Ohio fellas ok?

 

[Gemini]

 

[Gemini]

 

[easy_b]

Yeah, they y’all going to have to be uncle Joe for money. Also insurance companies are going to have a fit this year.