<font size="4">
STRATFOR
Geopolitical Diary: Friday, Jan. 20, 2006
The Bin Laden Tape</font size>
Al Jazeera aired a new audiotape attributed to Osama bin Laden on Thursday. The speaker in the tape appears to address the American people, saying it is not post-9/11 security measures that have prevented follow-on attacks in the United States and threatening that more will be carried out. He also notes, however, that polls show the Americans do not support the war in Iraq and suggests the possibility of a long-term truce, provided the Americans withdraw their forces and allow the Muslim world to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan.
Intelligence agencies around the world are scrutinizing the tape carefully to determine whether it is authentic, when it was created and any hints as to where it might have been produced. Already, it is revealing a few clues. The first and most obvious is that bin Laden is quite alive -- at least as of the time the tape was made, which some of the comments made suggest might have been November or December 2005.
Second, there is the fact that bin Laden apparently thought it important enough to issue a tape, following a long public silence. For more than a year, there has been no word from bin Laden himself; rather, there have been a series of tapes from his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri -- leading to some speculation that bin Laden might have been dead. The danger of issuing tapes, however (as may have been seen in the recent airstrike in Pakistan), is that they all leave a trail, and that trail can lead back to al Qaeda's hiding places. In other words, releasing a tape is a dangerous proposition, not to be undertaken lightly.
There are several reasons why bin Laden's tape, which apparently is authentic, might have been issued.
First, it could be an attempt to regain control over the jihadist movement. The conspicuous absence of bin Laden seems to have shifted funding and support toward Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who leads the jihadist movement in Iraq. Al-Zarqawi is seen as actively engaging the aggressor forces on a daily basis, while bin Laden waits secured somewhere in South or Central Asia, far from the fray. Stepping back into the spotlight, and claiming both responsibility for attacks in Europe and the potential to attack in the United States, returns bin Laden back to a higher status -- a leader whose power is not confined to the Muslim world but extends into the "heartland" of the enemy.
Bin Laden's truce offer, too, is a way to reinforce his legitimacy and control over the jihadist forces. There probably is no expectation on his part that the United States would actually agree to a truce. But no one can offer a truce unless they can control their own forces and keep to their side of the bargain. This is the impression bin Laden could be attempting to create: that he retains control, that he is the man in charge.
Another interesting aspect of the tape is its timing, coming so soon after the strike in Pakistan that reportedly killed three mid-ranking al Qaeda operatives. The U.S. strike is believed to have been an attempt to hit al-Zawahiri himself. The release of an audiotape featuring bin Laden's voice, then, could be intended as reassurance to supporters that al Qaeda's top leadership remains intact and that the United States is not capable of taking out the leaders.
This is not to say the tape was actually produced in response to the strike -- al Qaeda has not shown the ability to make and release a tape that quickly, and the risk of recording and delivering a new tape would be too great after the apparent near-miss for al-Zawahiri. Rather, the recording was made prior to the airstrike but broadcast afterward. This, then, raises another question: When did the tape begin its trip to Al Jazeera's offices?
And this may be the real mystery. What is the route that such tapes take? How long does it take to deliver them? How are they produced? What risks are entailed in delivery -- both for those who carry the tapes and for those who make them? And what is the real shape of the relationship between the tape makers and Al Jazeera? Knowing this could yield significant insights into the mindset of bin Laden and the al Qaeda organization. If the tape's journey was only a matter of a few days -- beginning its trek to Al Jazeera after the Pakistan bombings -- it would mean something different than if the tape was already en route before the Pakistan attack.
There is one more significant element to the tape: the threat of attacks in the United States. It would make little sense to publicly warn of an imminent attack, however, if an attack is truly imminent -- doing so only raises the readiness and defense levels of the potential target. Thus, the only concrete conclusion that can be drawn from Thursday's revelations is that someone has decided it is important to demonstrate that bin Laden is alive.
