The NWS issued a series of alerts as the storm developed, based on real-time data and model forecasts. Below is a detailed timeline of the warning process:
June 30, 2025 (4 Days Prior): The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) issued a Day 3 to 7 U.S. Weather Hazards Outlook, identifying a heavy rain risk in western Texas for July 3. This was based on model forecasts indicating a slow-moving storm system and high moisture content.
July 3, 2025 (Morning): The NWS Austin/San Antonio office analyzed data showing a mesoscale convective vortex and precipitable water values of 2.4 inches, signaling potential for heavy rainfall. Forecast discussions noted the risk of 1–3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts of 5–7 inches if storms clustered.
July 3, 2025 (~1:18 p.m. CDT): A Flood Watch was issued for south-central Texas, including Kerr County, based on radar and model data predicting heavy rainfall through 7 a.m. on July 4. The watch highlighted the risk of flash flooding in low-lying areas and along rivers.
July 3, 2025 (~11:41 p.m. CDT): The NWS issued a Flash Flood Warning for Bandera County, covering areas like Kerrville, Ingram, Hunt, and Lost Maples State Natural Area. Doppler radar detected intense rainfall rates, and automated gauges confirmed accumulating totals, indicating imminent flooding.
July 4, 2025 (~1:14 a.m. CDT): A Flash Flood Warning was issued for Kerr County, driven by radar estimates of 3–5 inches of rain and gauge reports of rising water levels in creeks and streams. This provided over three hours of lead time before significant flooding.
July 4, 2025 (~4:03 a.m. CDT): The NWS escalated to a Flash Flood Emergency for south-central Kerr County, including Hunt, after gauges reported a “large and deadly flood wave” on the Guadalupe River. Radar showed continued heavy rainfall, with totals approaching 10 inches in some areas.