Offseason moves for the Golden State Warriors: Steph's extension and the Timberwolves' draft pick
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The Golden State Warriors missing the NBA playoffs for a second straight season shouldn't be seen as a disappointment. In fact, the 2020-21 season should be seen as a preview of the good things to come for the Warriors next year. Stephen Curry played at an MVP level, winning his second scoring title, and Draymond Green is a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year.
Add a healthy Klay Thompson to the mix and Golden State should be firmly in the playoff mix in 2021-22, competing for home-court advantage in the first round in the Western Conference.
The Warriors, who already added No. 2 pick James Wiseman to their roster this year, could also be in position to add two more lottery picks, giving them young talent to supplement their Big Three.
With a play-in loss behind them, the Warriors now head into the offseason with a focus on a new contract for Curry and the options that await in the draft.
The Curry extension
The former MVP is in position to do something that no NBA player has ever done: sign two $200 million contracts. In 2017, Curry became the first NBA player to sign a supermax extension, worth $201 million over five years. Now, four years later, Curry is eligible to sign a four-year, $215.4 million extension this summer, which would keep him under contract with the Warriors through the 2025-26 season.
- 2022-23: $48.0 million | Age: 34-35
- 2023-24: $51.9 million | Age: 35-36
- 2024-25: $55.7 million | Age: 36-37
- 2025-26: $59.6 million | Age: 37-38
Curry's salary of $48 million in 2022-23 would actually exceed the 35% maximum for an individual player, but the collective bargaining agreement allows players to sign for the greater of 35% of the cap or 105% of their salary in the prior year. Curry's 2021-22 salary is $45.8 million.
On paper, the extension would seem to reward Curry for the past and not what the future holds. Paying a player close to $60 million at age 37 sounds ludicrous.
However, there are no signs that the 33-year old is slowing down. Curry was an MVP finalist this year and posted numbers as good as when he won back-to-back MVPs in 2015 and 2016.
"He's reminding me of MJ in that you just get so used to the brilliance and the excellence, it sort of blends in with everything else," Steve Kerr said. "It just becomes routine. It's insane to say that because what you're watching is otherworldly, and yet you sort of begin to expect it. That's probably the purest sign of greatness."
As Ramona Shelburne
wrote earlier this month, Curry saved the 2020-21 season with his brilliance on the court and impact off it. Because of that, it is now time for the Warriors to write Curry a $215 million check.
The Minnesota first
What happens if the odds are on the side of Golden State the night of the lottery?
By virtue of the
D'Angelo Russell trade to Minnesota, the Warriors have the Timberwolves' top-3 protected first-round pick. Because of the Timberwolves' strong finish to the season, that pick sits in the No. 6 position heading into the lottery, and has a 9.6% chance of jumping up to fourth.
If it does get up to No. 4 and conveys to the Warriors, Golden State could be staring at three potential impact players: Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Kuminga. The addition of Green, Kuminga or Suggs along with
James Wiseman, last year's No. 2 overall pick, would give Golden State a solid foundation for an eventual post-Curry future, or two highly coveted young players to use in a trade.
However, there's a 62.8% chance the pick ends up sixth or lower, which would not be an ideal scenario for the Warriors, according to ESPN Draft analyst Mike Schmitz:
"'The draft starts at 6' will likely be a phrase used to exhaustion during the pre-draft process, and for good reason. You could make an argument that four, and potentially even five, of our top-rated prospects would be the No. 1 pick in a normal year, when you talk about Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Kuminga. While the top five feels fairly set from talking to NBA executives, there's still a lot of fluidity in this draft starting at six."
There is also a 27.6% chance that the pick jumps into the top three, in which case the Timberwolves keep it this year and send Golden State an unprotected 2022 first-round pick, which was once seen as the crown jewel of draft assets because of a Timberwolves roster that is in flux.
However, Minnesota has shown signs of being a competitive team next season (13-18 record since the All-Star break) and would return a roster featuring
Karl-Anthony Towns,
Anthony Edwards, Russell and whichever potential star the team drafts in the top three this year. That would leave Golden State in a position to decide if it would be best to trade the future pick sooner rather than later, or hold out hope the Timberwolves falter again and the pick lands in the top five in 2022.
Klay Thompson's return
Regardless of what happens in the draft, Thompson's return could turn the Warriors from a play-in team to one contending for a top spot in the vaunted Western Conference.
"I anticipate us being right back in contention for a championship again," Thompson told reporters in a videoconference in mid-March.
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The last time we saw Thompson, he was coming off a 2018-19 regular season in which he averaged 21.5 points and shot 46.7% from the field and 40.2% from 3. He followed that up by averaging 26 points and shooting 53.5% from 3 in the NBA Finals loss to Toronto.
However, that was two years ago. Thompson is now trying to do the unthinkable: return from a torn ACL and a torn Achilles. While there have been no setbacks in his recovery, expect both the Warriors and Thompson to be cautious.
"I'll be honest, I don't expect to come back balls to the wall, 38 minutes a night, guarding the best player, running around 100 screens," Thompsons said. "I'm going to get to that point. I guarantee that. I plan to be an All-NBA player that I was."
If he does return to that level, the Warriors' days of being in the lottery should be over.
The free agency of Kelly Oubre Jr.
With Thompson expected to be ready for the start of next season, the Warriors need to decide if Oubre is a priority or luxury.
"I would love that," Oubre said, when asked if he'd like to stay with the Warriors for years to come. "At the end of the day this is a business. We got through one step, the next step is giving my all to this team so we can reach our goals this season. And then this summer that's another step, so I'm just kind of in the moment right now. I'm here. I'm a Warrior."
After getting off to a slow start to the season, Oubre picked up his play in February, averaging 20.1 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 43% from 3-point range. He missed the last 10 games of the regular season and the play-in tournament with a wrist injury, but he played 55 games overall, averaging 15.4 PPG, the second-highest mark of his career.
The Warriors have three options with regards to how they handle his free agency.
- They can sign him but absorb a staggering cost to the luxury tax. Signing Oubre to a conservative $10 million contract could add close to $100 million to their already high tax bill.
- They can let Oubre walk without anything in return.
- Similar to what Boston did with Gordon Hayward, the Warriors can work a sign-and-trade deal and create a large trade exception to use in the future. However, the team acquiring Oubre would need to sign him to a three-year deal (only the first year would have to be guaranteed). The Warriors would also have the option of taking back players in a sign-and-trade, but adding salary would add to their tax bill.
In a perfect world, Oubre would play the role of sixth man and strengthen the Warriors' bench. However, Golden State ownership will need to decide what the breaking point is when it comes to spending.
How does James Wiseman fit?
We are not going to throw in the towel when it comes to what the future holds for James Wiseman. Yes, this season had its share of ups and down, and ended early after Wiseman underwent surgery on his right knee. However, there has been a severe learning curve for all rookies this season, including Wiseman.
The 2020 draft class was essentially thrown into the deep end and asked to swim. There was no summer league or traditional offseason program, and training camp was significantly condensed.
"He's one year into his NBA career, that's a big adjustment already ... playing with a guy like Steph and playing in a different system for a five-man," former Warrior Andrew Bogut told NBA Sports Bay Area (Dubs Talk Podcast). "You're learning the fundamentals of the game and still catching up with all of that, and he's probably still growing into his body and filling out and lifting weights, so you got to be patient. I know Warriors fans expect the best, and that's where it's a tricky line. You don't want to push this kid like, 'Oh he's not going to be that great.' He's one year in."
The counterargument to the above is that Wiseman, despite his All-Star potential, does not fit the Warriors' timeline when it comes to competing for a championship.
"Can we get James up to speed quick enough to match the timeline with our three core guys? And that's a great question. And we don't know the answer. But when you go into a draft and you see someone who potentially is a generational talent, then that's a decision you have to make," Steve Kerr told 95.7 The Game's "Damon, Ratto and Kolsky Show".
The decision for Golden State is to use the sophomore season of Wiseman as the true test on how he fits in long term.
There are no disgruntled superstars available in a trade who would fit the Warriors' timeline for competing, plus Wiseman's trade value is lower now than before he debuted. On the Hoop Collective podcast, ESPN's Schmitz and Kevin Pelton had Wiseman falling from No. 2 to No. 11 if there was a redo of the 2020 draft.
The finances
The Warriors are projected to spend a king's ransom when it comes to their roster in 2021-22. The contracts of Curry, Thompson,
Draymond Green and
Andrew Wiggins have Golden State over the $136 million tax threshold before free agency begins.
Factor in that Golden State is also a repeater tax team (four out of the five prior seasons) and the team's financial commitment is trending toward historic.
Below are different scenarios on how costly the roster could be:
| OPTION A | OPTION B | OPTION C | OPTION D |
|---|
| Salaries | $171M | $175M | $180M | $184M |
| Tax Penalty | $144M | $169M | $202M | $231M |
| Total | $315M | $344M | $382M | $415M |
| A= Adding lottery pick and 3 free agents (all minimums) | | | | |
| B= Adding lottery pick and 3 free agents ($5.9M tax midlevel and 2 minimums) | | | | |
| C= Adding two lottery picks and one free agent ($5.9M tax midlevel) | | | | |
| D= Adding lottery pick and one free agent (minimum), plus re-signing Oubre at $10 million | | | | |
One break that the Warriors could receive again is a tax credit based on Basketball Related Income declining for the 2021-22 season. Golden State has a $116 million tax bill for the 2020-21 season that will likely fall in the $60 million range as a result of revenue declining this year.
Keep in mind that Joe Lacob and his ownership group purchased the Warriors for $450 million in 2010 and could pay close to that same amount in salaries and luxury tax penalties.
Offseason cap breakdown
Warriors' Projected Cap Sheet
| PLAYER | 2021-22 SALARY |
|---|
| 1. Stephen Curry | $45,780,966 |
| 2. Klay Thompson | $37,980,720 |
| 3. Andrew Wiggins | $31,579,390 |
| 4. Draymond Green | $24,026,712 |
| 5. James Wiseman | $9,166,800 |
| 6. Kevon Looney | $5,178,572 (player option) |
| 7. Jordan Poole | $3,161,440 |
| 8. Eric Paschall | $1,782,621 |
| 9. Juan Toscano-Anderson | $1,701,593 |
| 10. Gary Payton II | $1,977,011 (non-guaranteed) |
| 11. Damion Lee | $1,910,860 (non-guaranteed) |
| 12. Alen Smailagic | $1,782,621 (non-guaranteed) |
| 13. Mychal Mulder | $1,782,621 (non-guaranteed) |
| 14. Kelly Oubre Jr1 | $21,562,500 (free agent hold) |
| 15. Kent Bazemore2 | $1,669,178 (free agent hold) |
| 16. Nico Mannion3 | $1,489,065 (free agent hold) |
| 17. Jordan Bell3 | $1,489,065 (free agent hold) |
| 18. First-rounder | $3,562,080 (draft hold) |
| -- Shaun Livingston | $666,666 (stretch provision) |
| Guaranteed contracts | $160.4M |
| Partial/non-guaranteed | $7.4M |
| Free agent/draft holds | $6.5M |
| Dead cap space | $667K |
| Total | $175.1M |
| SALARY CAP | $112.8M |
| LUXURY TAX | $136.6M |
| 1. Bird | |
| 2. Non-Bird | |
| 3. Restricted Non-Bird | |
Warriors' Projected Depth Chart
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|
| S. Curry | K. Thompson | A. Wiggins | D. Green | J. Wiseman |
| M. Mulder1 | J. Poole | JT-Anderson | E. Paschall | K. LooneyP |
| G. Payton II1 | D. Lee1 | | | A. Smailagic1 |
| 1= Partial/non-guaranteed | | | | |
| P= Player option | | | | |
Team needs
- Backup wing
- Stretch-4
- Depth at point guard
Resources to build the roster
- The draft: own first-round pick, plus possibly Minnesota's first-round pick
- A healthy Klay Thompson
- The continued development of James Wiseman
- Exceptions: $5.9 million midlevel and trade ($2.0 million and $1.7 million)
- Cash: $5.8 million to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• Any decision to part ways with
Alen Smailagic,
Gary Payton II,
Damion Lee and
Mychal Mulder would be more about roster fit and less about finances. The four players are on non-guaranteed contracts and because the Warriors are over the luxury tax, their replacements will likely come in at a comparable salary. Out of the three, Smailagic is the likely odd man out. The former second-round pick has played sparingly since he was drafted in 2019, spending most of his time in Santa Cruz, California, playing for the Warriors' G-League affiliate. His $1.8 million contract becomes guaranteed if he is not waived by Aug. 6. Lee started 36 games a year ago, averaging 12.7 points on 35.6% shooting from 3. This year, he averaged 6.5 points on 39.7% from 3 in 18.9 minutes. Lee originally had a July 15 guaranteed date on his $1.9 million contract, which will now be moved to mid-August. Barring a sudden change, Lee will be on the opening night roster in 2021-22. The $1.8 million contract for Mulder does not become guaranteed until Jan. 7, and Golden State can waive him up to the start of the season without a financial penalty. Mulder appeared in 55 games this season, averaging 5.2 points in 11.9 minutes. Payton was signed to 10-day contracts before agreeing to a two-year contract on the last day of the season. The guard has an Aug. 11 trigger date that would see $659K of his $1.9 million contract guaranteed.
•
Kevon Looney has until Aug. 1 to opt in to his $5.2 million contract for 2021-22. After missing 42 games in 2019-20 because of an injury, Looney played in all but 10 games this past season. He has a +1.4 net rating in 18.4 minutes per game this season and is one of the Warriors' better defenders (106.7 defensive rating) because of his versatility. However, it is unlikely that he would receive more than his $5.2 million contract on the open market.
Restrictions
• Curry, Thompson and Green all have 15% trade kickers in their contracts. The trade bonuses for Curry and Thompson would be voided because they would exceed the maximum salary allowed. The Green trade bonus is $7.5 million and is spread out over his 2021-22 and 2022-23 salary in the unlikely event he is traded.
• The non-guaranteed contracts of Lee, Mulder, Payton and Smailagic have no trade value until their salary is protected.
• Golden State is not allowed to trade a first-round pick until two years after the pick owed to Memphis from the
Andre Iguodala salary-dump trade is conveyed. The pick is top-4 protected in 2024, top-1 in 2025 and unprotected in 2026.
Extension eligible
• The Warriors have four players in addition to Curry who are extension eligible: Looney, Smailagic, Wiggins and
Eric Paschall. Paschall earned All-Rookie honors in 2019-20 when he averaged 13.9 points in 60 games (26 starts). This past season, Paschall still averaged a respectable 9.5 points despite his minutes decreasing from 27.6 to 17.3. He is set to enter the last year of this contract, and Golden State can extend him to an additional four seasons with a starting salary of $11 million. Per ProFitX data, Paschall outplayed his $1.5 million contract this season by $6 million, and the starting number on an extension falls in the $4.9 million range.
The draft
The Warriors at a minimum will enter the July draft with one lottery pick. That number could increase to two if the Timberwolves' first-rounder falls outside of the top three.
If the Timberwolves retain their first, the Warriors will have their own first and an unprotected first from Minnesota in 2022. Golden State also has its own first-round picks in 2023, 2027 and 2028.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Golden State selecting in July:
No. 6 (from MIN):
Keon Johnson, SG, Tennessee
No. 14 (own): Alperen Sengun, PF/C, Turkey
Golden State has been known to spend money to buy draft picks. Since 2015, the Warriors have paid $8.2 million for the rights to Patrick McCaw,
Jordan Bell, Paschall and Smailagic.
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