Israel -- 2006 War

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<font size="5"><center>Crossfire War
Israel at War on Two Fronts
Blockades Lebanon</font size></center>



By Willard Payne

<font size="4">Crossfire War - TEHRAN WATCH - Middle East Theatre - Israel:
Jerusalem/Gaza City - Beirut - Tehran - Damascus; Israel at War
on Two Fronts - Destroys Palestinian FM Office - Attacks Beirut Airport - Blockades Lebanon</font size>


Night Watch: JERUSALEM - Israel is now officially at war on two fronts with the main action north in Lebanon because the main threat, Hezbollah is there with their 10,000 Katushya rockets. Reuters reports that at least 60 were fired as a result of Israel's massive assault on southern Lebanon which went as far as destroying the three runways of Beirut's Rafik Hariri International Airport and blockading the country's ports. Israel had done so to prevent supplies to Hezbollah from supporters Iran-Syria. Israel's Defence Ministry has stated this operation and blockade is not just for a few days but could go on much longer until the war is over. [ASHARQALAWSAT]

In some ways this is reminiscent of Israel's pre-emptive assault in June 1967 when they attacked Egypt - Syria because they knew both countries were about to attack them. Israel was able to seize the strategic Golan Heights from Syria who is now working with Tehran the way Damascus used to work with Cairo. This is a war both Tehran-Damascus have caused with their support of Palestinian terrorist groups and Hezbollah. Tehran-Damascus are now obliged to follow up and enter the conflict. The only question is how much damage do they want the Gaza Strip and Lebanon to endure before they do so. Israel's offensive is similar to the one in Gaza. Beirut has now been severed from the south of the country as Gaza City was cut off from the rest of the Gaza Strip.

However the economic impact of cutting off Beirut, one of the Middle East's most important banking centers, which had been in the midst of a construction boom, will have a far reaching impact internationally. Michael Kana, editor of a Lebanese business magazine said, "Now we've got no airport, so no tourism and no prosperity." In addition to the airport and blockade Israel's attacks have destroyed two dozen bridges and the building that housed Hezbollah's al-Manar TV station in the Beirut suburb of Haret Hreik. Israel has also warned Lebanon to evacuate the residents of a southern Beirut suburb where they believe Hezbollah leader Sayed Hassan Nasrallah is based.

So far the response from Arab governments has been to announce a Foreign Ministers meeting in Cairo on Saturday. Tehran has strongly condemned the Israeli offensive through its Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi. He stated Iran will be meeting with regional governments to discuss the issue. Tehran does not want a brief crisis. With a year long war, not just against Israel but also targeting Western governments Tehran protrays as supporting Israel, Tehran will use the war to not only weaken the West but to control the Islamic world by leading their military response. Islamic governments know the war is going to expand disrupting the region's economy, accelerating the cost of oil and therefore the profits of oil exporting states. [IRNA] http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-24/0607137222142230.htm

As foreign, non-Islamic, investments flee the region investment from Tehran and other Islamic financial capitals enter increasing their hold over the region's economy and its resources. It is quite possible that during the Foreign Ministers meeting in Cairo on Saturday they could announce the economic consequences of supporting Israel. This is similar to the oil crisis caused by the October War of 1973 that made OPEC the economic influence it now is. Even in the Suez -Sinai Crisis of 1956 that October, when Britain-France attacked Egypt, Arab governments reduced their oil exports to Western Europe by 30%.

Islamic heads of state like Egypt President Hosni Mubarak, who do not respond adequately, either militarily or financially will be removed, a major ally of the West gone. War against Israel will have more impact on Egypt than on Israel. Mubarak is surrounded by countries whose governments support the Jihad, Libya-Sudan-Saudi Arabia.

In Gaza City, Israel nearly destroyed the building that contained the Palestinian-Hamas Foreign Ministry.

http://newsblaze.com/story/20060713101225payn.nb/newsblaze/OPINIONS/Opinions.html
 

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<font size="5"><center>Hezbollah Raid Opens 2nd Front for Israel</font size>
<font size="4">Lebanese Shiite Fighters Seize 2 Soldiers;
Beirut Airport Among Sites Hit in Response</font size></center>


GR2006071300078.gif



Washington Post
By Anthony Shadid and Scott Wilson
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, July 13, 2006; Page A01

BEIRUT, July 13 -- The Lebanese Shiite Muslim group Hezbollah infiltrated the Israeli border Wednesday in a brazen raid, capturing two Israeli soldiers, killing three others and prompting Israeli attacks on the airport in Beirut and bridges, roads, power stations and military positions across the hillsides of southern Lebanon. Five more Israeli soldiers were killed after the army entered Lebanon in pursuit, one of the military's highest one-day death tolls in more than four years.

The capture of the soldiers and the fighting effectively opened a second front for Israel, whose troops entered the Gaza Strip last month in search of a soldier seized June 25. Within hours, reverberations rolled across an already tense region. The United States blamed Syria and Iran for the abduction, and Israeli tanks and troops moved toward the Lebanese border throughout the day. In Lebanon and elsewhere, the attack emboldened Hezbollah's supporters, who greeted the news by handing out sweets and setting off fireworks.

The fighting took a dramatic turn early Thursday with Israeli attacks on the Beirut airport and Hezbollah's television station in the capital's predominantly Shiite Muslim southern suburbs. Lebanese television reported that Israeli aircraft attacked two runways, forcing the facility to close and sending flights to airports elsewhere in the Middle East. Footage showed a column of black smoke drifting over the modern facility, considered an emblem of Lebanon's post-civil war reconstruction.

Into the morning, Israel escalated its raids across southern Lebanon, with artillery and aircraft pounding targets. Civilian casualties mounted; Lebanese television said at least 27 Lebanese were killed, including a family of 12 in the village of Dweir. Hezbollah said it fired rockets at targets across northern Israel, part of an arsenal that it said numbers as many as 13,000.

About 7 a.m. Thursday, a Katyusha rocket landed on the main street in the Israeli resort city of Nahariya, killing one woman and injuring at least 10 people. In the following half-hour, more than a dozen other rockets struck near downtown and other areas of the city, five miles inside the Israeli border. Sirens sounded for people to assemble in bomb shelters.

On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Israel held Lebanon for the responsible for the Hezbollah raid and promised a "painful and far-reaching response," a threat that recalled broad Israeli offensives in southern Lebanon in 1993 and 1996. "The murderous attack this morning was not a terrorist act, it was an act of war," Olmert said in Jerusalem.

Hezbollah said it carried out the attack about 9:05 a.m., when its fighters managed to cross the heavily fortified border near Shtula, an Israeli farming town of about 350 people. Hezbollah guerrillas fired on two Israeli army Humvees, killing three soldiers and capturing two others.

Hezbollah's leader, Hasan Nasrallah, said an hour passed before Israeli forces set out to recover the captives, giving Hezbollah time to smuggle them to a place he called "safe and far, far, far away." He said the attack had been planned for months and was aimed at forcing negotiations that would win the release of three Lebanese held in Israeli jails.

"Let this be clear, the prisoners will only return home through indirect negotiations and a trade," Nasrallah told reporters at a news conference in southern Beirut, one of Hezbollah's strongholds. "If the Israelis are considering any military action to bring the hostages home, they are delusional, delusional, delusional."

"We don't want an escalation in the south, nor war," he said. "But if the Israelis want an escalation, then we are ready for a confrontation and to its furthest extent. If Israel chooses confrontation, we are ready, and it should expect surprises."

Israeli officials said Wednesday that operations by the military -- known formally as the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF -- could escalate and, at least publicly, they ruled out negotiations on the two soldiers' release.

"The government of Lebanon is directly responsible for the fate of the IDF soldiers, and it must act immediately and seriously to locate them, to prevent any harm done to them, and to return them to Israel," Defense Minister Amir Peretz said in a statement. "The state of Israel will take any measure it sees fit, and the IDF will be instructed accordingly."

The attack by Hezbollah, a powerful, armed Shiite Muslim faction that takes part in the Lebanese government and effectively controls the border, created a quandary for Lebanon, Israel and the United States.

Israel moved deeper into the Gaza Strip -- where hospital officials said 23 Palestinians were killed on Wednesday, most of them civilians -- but has so far been unable to free the 19-year-old Israeli corporal who was kidnapped almost three weeks ago. It faces even more difficult terrain in southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah draws most of its support.

The United States called the border attack a terrorist act, but U.S. officials appeared reluctant to see fighting wreck a country that has emerged as one of the success stories of Bush administration policy in the Middle East. Lebanon's government, in a carefully worded statement, said it had no knowledge of the attack and was not responsible for it.

Wednesday's death toll on the border was the highest for the Israeli military in major fighting since April 9, 2002, when 13 of its soldiers were killed during fighting in the West Bank city of Jenin. Hezbollah said one of its fighters was killed in the day's fighting.

After the abduction, Israeli troops entered Lebanon in force for the first time since May 2000, when the military ended its presence on a rocky, hilly swath of southern Lebanon that it had first occupied in 1978. Four Israeli soldiers were killed when their tank struck a mine, and Hezbollah broadcast video footage of what was described as the wreckage through the day.

The eighth slain soldier was killed trying to retrieve the ruined tank and the remains of his colleagues in the evening, the Israeli army said. A small contingent of Israeli troops remained inside the Lebanese border as darkness fell, trying to recover the remains of the dead soldiers.

From midmorning Wednesday, Israeli forces struck dozens of targets -- bridges, roads, power stations and Hezbollah posts -- in what the military called an effort to slow the movements of the soldiers' captors.

On Lebanon's Mediterranean coast south of Sidon, Israeli warplanes bombed at least five bridges in quick succession, effectively cutting southern Lebanon off from the rest of the country. At least two Lebanese civilians were killed in one of the strikes, civil defense officials said. Israeli gunboats shelled roads stretching north from the border town of Naqurah.

Scores of suddenly stranded Lebanese, their faces drawn, wandered back roads looking for a way home. As they walked, carrying bags, ambulances with their sirens blaring passed them in the other direction.

"We're scared, we're scared. From the moment of the attack until now, we're just scared," said Um Fatima, whose cousin, 40-year-old Mohammed Saghir, was one of those killed in an airstrike on a bridge.

On Israel's side of the border, Katyusha rockets fired by Hezbollah fighters landed in sage patches and eucalyptus groves. Small brush fires lit up some of the hills near Shtula, and smoke from smoldering roads and bridges in Lebanon appeared in the near distance, sending a dark smudge tailing south for miles at twilight.

The Israeli residents of agricultural towns and even some of the seaside beach resorts were ordered through loudspeakers into bomb shelters and warned of rocket attacks.

ezbollah last captured an Israeli soldier in October 2000, when it seized three who were later executed or died of wounds suffered as they were taken. The bodies of the three soldiers, along with a civilian kidnapped separately, were returned to Israel in 2004 in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian and Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails.

The attack Wednesday was almost sure to bolster the martial reputation of Hezbollah, which probably enjoys more support in the rest of the Arab world than in Lebanon itself, where other sectarian factions have pushed for it to disarm. Nasrallah has vowed on numerous occasions to seize soldiers as a bargaining chip for the Lebanese prisoners; in one speech, he said it would happen this year.

The broadening of the Israeli response north to Beirut's airport will almost certainly put additional pressures on Hezbollah, both inside the country and abroad. Some Lebanese officials have already questioned whether Hezbollah had the right to make a decision that could potentially drag the entire country into war. But in southern Lebanon, often a battleground between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, the soldiers' capture was praised; residents said they had grown accustomed to the kind of fighting that has followed.

"Look, we're used to it. For 25 years, 26 years, it's been like this," said Hassan Qaryani, 21, a butcher from Burj Rahal. He stood with a friend, Mohammed Tahine, near a destroyed bridge, looking down at the rubble and tangled iron rods.

He called the kidnapping "like a crown on my head."

"As soon as I heard the news I was overjoyed," he said. "It was like Italy winning the World Cup."

His friend grinned as he looked at the bridge. "If you don't destroy, then you don't build," he said.

Early Thursday in the Gaza Strip, where more than 70 Palestinians and one Israeli soldier have been killed since June 28, an Israeli airstrike destroyed the building housing the Hamas-controlled Palestinian Foreign Ministry, according to the Associated Press. Palestinian medical workers said 13 people in the neighborhood, including six children, were injured. Before daybreak, a fighter from Islamic Jihad was killed and one was wounded in an Israeli airstrike in southern Gaza.

Wilson reported from Shtula and Nahariya. Special correspondents Alia Ibrahim in Beirut, Islam Abdelkareem in Gaza City and Sufian Taha in Jerusalem contributed to this report.
 

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US vetoes UN resolution urging end to Israeli attacks in Gaza
Jul 13 3:50 PM US/Eastern
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The United States vetoed a UN draft resolution that would have called for an end to Israeli attacks and "disproportionate use of force" in the Gaza Strip as well as for the release of a kidnapped Israeli soldier.

The Security Council resolution received 10 votes, one against from the United States with four abstentions, French Ambassador Jean-Marc de la Sabliere, the council president for July, announced.

Explaining his negative vote, US Ambassador John Bolton described the text as "unbalanced" and was "not only untimely but also outmoded" because of the attacks against Israel by Lebanese Hezbollah militants and UN chief Kofi Annan's decision to send a crisis team to the region.

He said adoption of the resolution would have exacerbated tensions in the region and would have undermined "our vision of two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security."

The United States, Israel's staunchest ally, last used its veto in the Security Council in October 2004, to block a similar draft demanding that Israel end all military operations in northern Gaza and withdraw from the area.
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/07/13/060713195011.0bs4l5nz.html
 

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<font size="5"><center>Threat of wider Mideast war grows </font size></center>

Karby Leggett, Jay Solomon and Neil King, Wall Street Journal
Posted: Fri, 14 Jul 2006 08:00 | © Moneyweb Holdings Limited, 1997-2006

Israel's escalating incursion into Lebanon -- with bombing attacks on Beirut's airport and a naval blockade -- could turn its border fight with militant Islamists into a regional war that Israel is openly warning might lead to Syria, and beyond that to Iran.

Already the violence has engaged the Israeli military on two fronts, against Hezbollah militias in Lebanon to the north and Hamas forces that control the Palestinian government in the Gaza Strip to the west. But with Hezbollah sending dozens of rockets into Israel and striking the port city of Haifa, and Israel inflicting extensive infrastructure damage, the stakes have grown starkly higher. Israel now is fighting not with Palestinians or Arab nations, as in the past, but with the forces of radical Islam.

And the Israelis are bluntly saying that the blame for the violence by those forces lies in large measure with the governments of Syria and Iran for giving them support and encouragement -- an assertion that could put the U.S. and Israel on diverging paths in the crisis. "The real masterminds [behind these acts] are in Tehran and Damascus," Daniel Ayalon, Israel's ambassador to Washington, said Thursday. The international community "needs to call Iran to task," he said.

Mr. Ayalon and other Israeli officials said their forces will continue operations in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories to root out the military backbone of Hezbollah and Hamas. Ultimately, they say, true stability will require reining in Iranian support of militia groups.

While the Bush administration is largely sympathetic with Israel's plight, and also eager to restrain Iran, it is unlikely to be as keen to directly confront Tehran now. With U.S. troops tied down in Iraq and a serious diplomatic drive under way at the United Nations to impose economic sanctions to get Iran to curb its nuclear program, the White House has little desire for a broader regional conflict that could bring a head-on clash with Iran right now.

It also would be difficult to bring along American allies in a direct confrontation with Iran. Israel has been warning for several years that Iran, much more than Iraq, has emerged as the Middle East's biggest problem and that Tehran's government represents a challenge Israel shouldn't have to confront alone. But it has found few countries willing to share that burden.

As a result, the Bush administration faces an immediate decision on what it can do to contain the violence while allowing Israel to defend itself and its soldiers, three of whom have been kidnapped in recent days by Hamas and Hezbollah. Two senior American officials -- Assistant Secretary of State David Welch and White House Middle East adviser Elliott Abrams -- met with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert Thursday. The U.S. said the best vehicle to defuse the crisis might be a United Nations delegation that is heading to the region at the behest of Secretary General Kofi Annan.

The unfolding crisis also rattled financial markets. The specter of broad Middle East instability boosted crude oil for August delivery 2.3% to a nominal record of $76.70 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. That helped push stocks lower, wiping out more than half the Dow Jones Industrial Average's gains so far this year as the blue-chip average slid 166.89 points, or 1.5%, to 10846.29.

Within the region, the outbreak of fighting already has had broad impact. It has gravely imperiled the fragile move toward democracy in Lebanon that the U.S. was trying to foster as a shining example for the rest of the Mideast. It also has destroyed any hope that Israel's own new government could continue pulling back from confrontation with Palestinians.

The high-speed escalation of violence in Lebanon comes in response to attacks on Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah fighters who crossed into Israel this week to launch attacks and kidnap two Israeli soldiers. Three runway bombings forced Beirut's Rafik al-Hariri International Airport to close, stranding passengers seeking to enter and exit Lebanon. The Israeli navy imposed a blockade along Lebanon's coast, shutting down the main channel for imports and exports.

In other parts of the country, Israel bombed roads and bridges, Hezbollah offices and the Al Manar TV station the militant group runs. Two days of Israeli bombings -- the heaviest air campaign against its neighbor in 24 years -- had killed 47 Lebanese and wounded 103, Lebanese Health Minister Mohammed Jawad Khalife said.

Hezbollah fired rockets Thursday into northern Israeli towns and said it was using a new missile that appeared more advanced than previous models. The rocket that hit Haifa, some 30 miles south of Lebanon's border, marked the deepest Hezbollah forces have ever struck inside Israel.

One Israeli was killed and more than 35 were injured, Israeli officials said. Eight Israeli soldiers also have been killed in the past two days.

Israel said its assault is meant to block the means by which Hezbollah imports weaponry and other goods. It also made clear that it aims to pressure the Lebanese government to take action against the militants. Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim group, joined the Lebanese government last year following its strong showing in national elections. Hezbollah did so in part to derail international efforts to force it to disarm following the withdrawal of thousands of Syrian troops from Lebanon.

In his public comments Thursday, President Bush laid blame for the flare-up firmly on Hezbollah and Hamas, while cautioning Israel not to do anything that would weaken the "fragile democracy" in Lebanon. "Israel has a right to defend herself," he told reporters while in Germany. "Every nation must defend herself against terrorist attacks and the killing of innocent life. It's a necessary part of the 21st century."

At the U.N., the U.S. stood alone in vetoing an Arab-sponsored resolution demanding that Israel call off its offensive in the Gaza Strip. Mr. Bush found some support in Berlin, where German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke strongly in support of Israel. Mr. Bush was seeing the German leader as he made his way to a summit meeting of the Group of Eight leading nations in St. Petersburg, Russia, this weekend. The world response to the Mideast fighting now is certain to be a significant agenda item there.

Mr. Bush and his top aides have pursued a hands-off approach toward Israel since cutting off contacts with late Palestinian leader Yassir Arafat in 2002, and there was little Thursday to suggest that approach had changed. But the next few days will test whether that approach continues in the current crisis.

Test of U.S.-Israel Relations

The situation also will test whether the U.S. and Israel see eye-to-eye on how to handle Syria and, more important, Iran. Thursday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice echoed the Israeli assertion that those two nations bear responsibility for the unrest, saying they were encouraging the attacks and, in the case of Syria, "sheltering the people who are perpetrating these acts."

The U.S., Ms. Rice added, isn't going to "try to judge every single act" the Israelis make. When asked if the fighting might spread to other countries, she said she doesn't intend "to speculate on apocalyptic scenarios."

Mr. Bush has been in a diplomatic stand-off with Iran over its nuclear program -- a showdown that some analysts think actually may be fueling Tehran's desire to stir up trouble in the region. Iran, some U.S. and Middle Eastern officials suspect, may be eager to demonstrate to Washington its ability to harm American interests if the White House pursues a coercive policy to stop Iran's nuclear programs.

They also suspect Iran has been emboldened by U.S. military setbacks in Iraq to think it has more of a free hand to spread its influence across the region, partly through proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas. At the same time, though, there is considerable debate over how much control Iran actually exercises over the groups. Some Israeli and American analysts think Hezbollah wouldn't be acting in Israel without direct orders from Tehran, but others disagree.

In any case, Mr. Ayalon, the Israeli ambassador, declined to respond to the question of whether Israel would itself attack Iran for allegedly masterminding Hezbollah's activities. But a number of U.S. lawmakers said they believe the Bush administration needs to be taking an increasingly aggressive stance to prevent Tehran from expanding its influence in the Middle East.

"Iran is calling the shots here," said Rep. Brad Sherman, a Democrat from California. "These kidnappings wouldn't have occurred without the support from the highest ranks in Iran."

For now, the Bush administration appears to think it is making slow but steady progress in dealing with Iran by escalating pressure at the U.N. Thursday, the U.S. and other members of the Security Council's five permanent seat holders said they are referring Iran back to the council for its failure to respond to an offer of talks on its nuclear program. Such a move could ultimately lead to economic sanctions against Tehran, though countries such as Russia and China have indicated they might not support such penalties. Now, the Security Council could also be the forum through which to pressure Iran to end its support of Hezbollah and Hamas.

At the same time, U.S. officials said they are also concerned that al Qaeda and its affiliates could increase their activities around Israel as a result of the current unrest. In recent months, these officials say, groups claiming ties to al Qaeda have unleashed attacks in territory bordering Israel, such as Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian territories.

Setback for Bush Vision

Regardless of the tactics used now to damp violence, the growing conflict could become a significant setback for the Bush administration's vision for the region. Mr. Bush and many of his neoconservative strategists said in the months leading up to the Iraq invasion that toppling Saddam Hussein would make Israel and secular Arab states safer. These officials claimed Mr. Hussein's ouster would allow secular democratic governments to flourish, while depriving Palestinian terrorists of one of their major sponsors in Baghdad.

Friday, many Middle East analysts say the Iraq war has made Israel significantly less safe. Iran has used the conflict to project its influence across Iraq and the Persian Gulf region. Al Qaeda, meanwhile, has developed a safe haven in western Iraq that it has used to launch attacks.

"In some important ways, the regional environment is less favorable to Israel than it was before we invaded Iraq," says Flynt Leverett, who directed Middle East affairs in the White House during the first Bush term. "If you look since 2003, Iran has emerged as a more powerful state under a hard-line leadership."

Another concern is whether Lebanon's $20 billion economy can weather the storm. The current violence comes amid the peak of Lebanon's tourist season, which has seen Beirut's hotels, restaurants and bars packed in recent weeks. After collapsing during the 1975-90 civil war, the tourist industry has rebounded strongly in recent years to become a leading driver of growth. Now, with transportation shut down and the conflict escalating, the industry faces an uncertain future.

A swift decline in tourism, along with pressure on other parts of the economy -- including soaring oil prices -- could push Lebanon's economy into recession and possibly force the government to default on its nearly $40 billion debt. Even before the attacks, the International Monetary Fund was urging Lebanon to undertake drastic measures to escape a looming debt crunch.

A debt crisis could stir deep tension within the ruling coalition, where Hezbollah holds two ministerial seats.

There were clear strains Thursday as some members of the coalition voiced displeasure with Hezbollah's actions while others supported them. The split extended into the foreign ministry, where the country's ambassador to the U.S. was recalled by the government after voicing support for the kidnappings.

A paralyzed -- or collapsing -- Lebanese government would add an element of instability to the Middle East and set back to U.S. efforts to spread democracy in the region. Some military and political analysts say an Israeli-imposed economic crisis could ultimately boost support for Hezbollah, which runs a vast social-services network funded independent of the Beirut government.

Write to Karby Leggett at karby.leggett@wsj.com, Jay Solomon at jay.solomon@wsj.com and Neil King Jr. at neil.king@wsj.com

http://www.moneyweb.co.za/shares/international_news/684229.htm
 

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Extremist group: We kidnapped 2 Palestinians

‘Gilad Shalhevet Brigades’ organization claims it kidnapped two Palestinians, residents of the Jerusalem area. Group says hostages will be released only in exchange for Israeli soldiers abducted in Gaza, Lebanon
Efrat Weiss

An extremist organization called the “Gilad Shalhevet Brigades” claimed it kidnapped two Palestinians, residents of the Jerusalem area. In a statement issued by the groups it was said that the hostages will be released only in exchange for the Israeli soldiers abducted in Gaza and Lebanon.


Jerusalem District Police said they are looking into the group’s claim.


Thursday afternoon the Ynet news desk received a statement reading: “For your information, a few minutes ago we kidnapped two Palestinian workers in the Jerusalem area. The two are being held in a hidden location and we will conduct negotiation for their release through the media.


“We demand the immediate release of the kidnapped (Israeli) soldiers; if they will not be released within the next 48 hours, the lives of the Palestinians will be in danger.”


The announcement has not been confirmed as of yet.


The “Shalhevet Gilad Brigades” is an extremist organization that has claimed responsibility for past shooting attacks in which Palestinians were murdered in the territories, but until now no proof has surfaced linking the group to the actual incidents, and no arrests have been made.
 

QueEx

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Interesting the way this thing is shaping up. According to reports
I've read, the "War Equation" seems to be shaping up like this:

(1) Iran funds, supports, urges and arms Hezbollah;

(2) Iran supports and urges Syria;

(3) Syria supports Hezbollah;

(4) Hezbollah kidnaps 2 Israeli soldiers - knowing Israel will retaliate;

(5) Israel tries to get its soldiers back and attacks Hezbollah;

(6) Hezbollah launches an attack on Israel - via Katyuska Rockets;

(7) Since Iran funds, supports, urges and arms Hezbollah, the attack by
Hezbollah is an attack by Iran, though indirectly, against Israel; and since
Syria supports/funds Hezbollah, the attack by Hezbollah is also an attack
by Syria upon Israel;

(8) So, if Israel strikes back at Syria -- Iran says that will be an attack
against Iran - - and Iran will strike (directly) Israel;

(9) Since the United States supports/funds Israel, an attack by Iran and
Syria against Israel (through Hezbollah), is an attack upon the United States ???

Do I have this right ???

QueEx
 

African Herbsman

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Israel may have done this to escalate the situation

Hezbollah denies firing rockets at Haifa

Thu Jul 13, 2:17 PM ET

NAHARIYA, Israel - At least one Katyusha rocket hit the northern city of Haifa on Thursday, but no one was injured, Israeli authorities said. Hezbollah denied it had fired any rockets at the port city.
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Residents were told to stay near bomb shelters in case of more attacks.

Any attack on the city of 270,000 people about 30 miles from the border was certain to invite a harsh response from
Israel, which was already pounding Lebanon following the capture of two soldiers.

"Those who fire into such a densely populated area will pay a heavy price," said David Baker, an official in the Israeli prime minister's office.

Hezbollah deputy leader Sheik Naim Kassem denied in an telephone interview with Al-Jazeera that his group fired any rockets at Haifa, adding this will happen if "Beirut or its southern suburbs are attacked."

Israeli army and police said the rocket hit the Haifa neighborhood of Stella Maris, an area popular with Christian tourists that is filled with restaurants, a monastery and a church.

The Israeli ambassador to the United States, Daniel Ayalon, said the attack on Haifa was "a major, major escalation" in the conflict.

"They have more than 10,000 rockets. For them to do this, in Haifa is a major escalation," Ayalon said at a news conference at the National Press Club.

Asked if Israel was at war, Ayalon said yes.

"The objective is to win this war," he said. "We certainly are not aggressors. We responded. Our objective is to neutralize these groups."
 

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<font size="5"><center>Saudi sideswipe at Hezbollah </font size></center>

Al Jezeera
Friday 14 July 2006, 19:18 Makka Time, 16:18 GMT

Saudi Arabia has blamed "elements" inside Lebanon for the violence with Israel, in unusually frank language directed at Hezbollah and its Iranian backers.

"A distinction must be made between legitimate resistance and uncalculated adventures undertaken by elements inside [Lebanon] and those behind them without recourse to the legal authorities and consulting and co-ordinating with Arab nations," a statement carried by the official news agency SPA said.

"These elements should bear the responsibility for their irresponsible actions and they alone should end the crisis they have created."

Israel struck Beirut airport and military airbases and blockaded Lebanese ports on Thursday, intensifying reprisals that have killed 55 civilians in Lebanon since Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers a day earlier.

"They [the elements] are exposing Arab nations and their gains to grave dangers without these nations having a say in the matter," said the statement, which reiterated Saudi support for Palestinian and Lebanese resistance against Israeli occupation.

The statement did not make clear what it meant by the gains of Arab nations.

Criticism of some Arab resistance movements, which act without consulting any Arab government, have been the focus of some Saudi press coverage lately.

Escalation

The Israeli army said Hezbollah fighters fired more than 100 rockets at northern Israel in their heaviest bombardment in 10 years, hitting Israel's third-largest city, Haifa. Hezbollah, a group backed by Iran and Syria, denied that it had fired on the port city.

Arab governments have agreed to send their foreign ministers to Cairo for an emergency meeting on Saturday to discuss the Israeli attacks on Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.

But the 22-member league has not yet made specific proposals for a joint Arab response to the Israeli attacks.

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/72BAC422-6079-419C-9DD1-2FCBF21FDA5E.htm
 

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<font size="5"><center>Hezbollah Hits Israel With New Weapon</font size>
<font size="4">Hezbollah Drone Batters Israeli Warship</font size></center>

Jul 14, 6:41 PM (ET)
Associated Press
By HAMZA HENDAWI

BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) - Hezbollah rammed an Israeli warship with an unmanned aircraft rigged with explosives Friday, setting it ablaze after Israeli warplanes smashed Lebanon's links to the world one by one and destroyed the headquarters of the Islamic guerrilla group's leader.

The attack on the warship off Beirut's Mediterranean coast was the most dramatic incident on a violent day in the conflict that erupted suddenly Wednesday and appeared to be careening out of control despite pleas from world leaders for restraint on both sides.

The ramming of the Israeli warship indicated Hezbollah has added a new weapon to the arsenal of rockets and mortars it has used against Israel. The Israeli army said the ship suffered severe damage and was on fire hours later as it headed home. There were no details on the ship's crew, though Al-Jazeera TV said the Israeli military was searching for four missing sailors.

"You wanted an open war and we are ready for an open war," Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said in a taped statement. He vowed to strike even deeper into Israel with rockets.

The attack on the warship was apparently timed to coincide with Nasrallah's message on the militant group's television station. "The surprises that I have promised you will start now. Now in the middle of the sea, facing Beirut, the Israeli warship ... look at it burning," Nasrallah boasted.

Israeli military officials said the drone apparently was developed by Hezbollah. The Lebanese guerrilla group has managed to fly unmanned spy drones over northern Israel at least twice in recent years.

"If they kill us all, we will still not give them back the prisoners," said one resident, Nasser Ali Nasser, as palls of smoke rose from fuel depots hit farther south. "We have nothing left to lose except our dignity. We sacrifice ourselves for Sheik Nasrallah," he said.

http://apnews1.iwon.com//article/20060714/D8IS1RG89.html?PG=home&SEC=news
 

nittie

Star
Registered
This is just another chapter in the Cold War except this time it's being fought in the Middle East instead of Southeast Asia...China like Russia in those days, is a communist country. The big and maybe deadly difference in this war is America is in debt up to it's neck to China and we are dependent on the Middle East for oil. An American economic collapse is a very real possibility.
 

Blksoul17

Potential Star
Registered
QueEx said:
Interesting the way this thing is shaping up. According to reports
I've read, the "War Equation" seems to be shaping up like this:

(1) Iran funds, supports, urges and arms Hezbollah;

(2) Iran supports and urges Syria;

(3) Syria supports Hezbollah;

(4) Hezbollah kidnaps 2 Israeli soldiers - knowing Israel will retaliate;

(5) Israel tries to get its soldiers back and attacks Hezbollah;

(6) Hezbollah launches an attack on Israel - via Katyuska Rockets;

(7) Since Iran funds, supports, urges and arms Hezbollah, the attack by
Hezbollah is an attack by Iran, though indirectly, against Israel; and since
Syria supports/funds Hezbollah, the attack by Hezbollah is also an attack
by Syria upon Israel;

(8) So, if Israel strikes back at Syria -- Iran says that will be an attack
against Iran - - and Iran will strike (directly) Israel;

(9) Since the United States supports/funds Israel, an attack by Iran and
Syria against Israel (through Hezbollah), is an attack upon the United States ???

Do I have this right ???

QueEx

You are right on the money. This is the same old in that area A proxy war same way U.S.S.R. and the U.S.A. used Isreal to fight a Proxy war during the cold war.
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="4">The Iranian Connection</font size>

<font size="5"><center>
Missile, Not Drone, Hit Israeli Warship </font size></center>


Associated Press
07.15.2006, 06:05 AM

A missile fired by Hezbollah, not an unmanned drone laden with explosives, damaged an Israeli warship off Lebanon, the army said Saturday.

The attack late Friday alarmed Israel because initial information indicated the guerrillas had used a drone for the first time to attack Israeli forces.

But the army's investigation showed that Hezbollah had fired an Iranian-made missile at the vessel from the shores of Lebanon, said Brig. Gen. Ido Nehushtan.

"We can confirm that it was hit by an Iranian-made missile launched by Hezbollah. We see this as very profound fingerprint of Iranian involvement in Hezbollah," Nehushtan said in an interview with The Associated Press.

Another Hezbollah missile also hit and sank a nearby merchant ship at around the same time, Nehushtan said. He said that ship apparently was Egyptian, but had no other information.

Nehushtan said the body of one of the four Israeli soldiers missing in the attack was found aboard the damaged warship. Other Israeli military officials said two bodies had been found.

Israel launched its offensive after Hezbollah guerrillas crossed the Israel-Lebanon border on Wednesday and captured two Israeli soldiers. Israel has bombarded Lebanon's airport and main roads in the most intensive offensive against the country in 24 years, while Hezbollah has launched hundreds of rockets into Israel.

The intense fighting has sent shock waves through a region already traumatized by Israel's battle against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. With Israeli officials pointing fingers at Hezbollah's close allies, Syria and Iran, the crisis could soon spread.

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/07/15/ap2880884.html
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="5"><center>Hizballah Brings out Iranian Silkworm
to Hit Israel Navy Corvette</font size></center>



1184.jpg



DEBKAfile Exclusive Military Analysis

July 15, 2006, 1:37 PM (GMT+02:00)

The disaster that overtook one of the Israeli Navy’s state of the art warships, Ahi-Hanit, was thoroughly planned in advance by an enemy which managed to take Israel’s military commanders by surprise. It has shocked Israel’s military to a degree comparable to the profound effect on US forces of al Qaeda’s 2000 attack on the USS Cole in Aden.

The Saar-5 class corvette, with a crew of 61 seamen and a 10-man helicopter crew, was hit Friday, July 17 at 20:15 hours, while shelling Beirut international airport. Four crewmen were reported missing. One was found dead Saturday aboard the crippled ship. Three are still sought by rescue teams.

DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal that the warship was struck from Beirut by an Iran-made C-802 shore-to-sea missile of the Silkworm family. Weighing 715 kilos, with a range of 120km, the missile is armed with a strong anti-jamming capability, which lends it a 98% success rate in escaping interception.

The Israeli ship is armed with an advanced Barak anti-missile system, which may have missed the incoming missile. Israeli military planners must now look at the vulnerability of the navy following the appearance of the first Iranian C-802 missiles

The Israeli chief of staff, Lt.Gen. Dan Halutz, started his news conference Friday night just 15 minutes earlier at 20:00. The campaign was then 60 hours old from the moment Hizballah raiders captured two Israel soldiers in an ambush inside Israel. He was poised, assured and clear, until a reporter asked if the military goals of the Lebanese offensive matched the objectives set out in government decisions. His answer was: “Don’t start looking for cracks.”

But Hizballah found the cracks 15 minutes later. Its secretary general Hassan Nasrallah put in a telephone appearance on Al Manar TV straight after General Halutz to inform his listeners across the Middle East that one of Israel’s warships was ablaze at that very moment. He said the ship had been crippled while it was bombing Beirut and was sinking. Hizballah, he added, had prepared a number of surprises for Israel and its armed forces Despite several Israeli air raids, the station is still broadcasting.

In Israel, the Hizballah chief’s words were taken at first as an implausible threat for the future – until the order of events began to unfold.

DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal:

Shortly before 20:00 hours Friday, Hizballah launched a pair of land-to-sea C-802 missiles against the Israeli ship from the coast of Beirut. The trajectory of the first was adjusted to a landing amidships from above. It missed and exploded in the water. The second was rigged to skim the water like a cruise missile. It achieved a direct hit of the Ahi Hanit’s helicopter deck, starting a fire. The ship began to sink, as Nasrallah said, and would have been lost were it not for the speed and bravery of crewmen who jumped into the flames and doused them before the ship exploded and sank.

It is not known whether the men dead and missing paid with their lives for saving the ship.

This was the second time in 48 hours that the Israeli high command was taken by unawares.

July 12, the day that Hizballah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, was also the deadline for Iran to deliver its answer to the six-power package of incentives for giving up its nuclear enrichment program. Tehran let the day go by without an answer. Someone should have kept an eye on Iran’s Lebanese surrogate and made the connection with a fresh virulent threat against Israel from Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. However, the high alert declared earlier this month for Israeli units on the Lebanese border was not restored.

The Hizballah guerrillas took advantage of this lack of vigilance to infiltrate Israel near Zarit, penetrate to a distance of 200 meters, fire RPGs and roadside bombs at two Israeli Hammer jeeps on patrol, and make off with Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. Eight Israeli soldiers lost their lives as a result of this attack.

The IDF ground pursuit for the two men was cut short when an Israeli tank was blown up by a massive 300-kilo bomb in south Lebanon, killing the four-man crew and a fifth soldier who tried to rescue his comrades.

The attack on the Ahi-Hanit was the third surprise.

When General Halutz was asked if Israel does not fear Syrian and Iranian intervention in the hostilities, he replied firmly in the negative. But Iran has been involved from the very first moment.

This localized perception of the Just Reward campaign in Lebanon, contrary to Israeli leaders’ rhetoric, is hampering its effectiveness. The war embarked on Wednesday night, July 12, must be seen in its regional strategic dimensions. It is therefore not enough to bash Nasrallah without taking into account beforehand that his strings are pulled by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad from Tehran and the Syrian president Bashar Assad, who opened up Damascus military airport for the delivery of Iranian missiles to his militia.

Saturday morning, Hizballah TV broadcast a videotape showed a blurred object looking like a small unmanned aircraft purportedly packed with explosives exploding in the water. This was an attempt to muddy the trail leading to Tehran and present the fatal attack as an extraordinary feat of arms by Hizballah. It was also another move in and intense psychological war to undermine Israeli morale. The inference they are trying to get across is that if the Shiite terrorists have a weapon that can hit a moving target at sea, the will not find it hard to reach any part of Israel including Tel Aviv.

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1184
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="6"><center>Red Alert: Getting Ready</font size>
<font size="4">We are now in the period preceding major conventional operations</font size></center>

Strategic Forecasting Intelligence
July 15, 2007


We are now in the period preceding major conventional operations. Israel is in the process of sealing the Lebanese coast. They have disrupted Lebanese telecommunications, although they have not completely collapsed the structure. Israeli aircraft are attacking Hezbollah's infrastructure and road system. In the meantime, Hezbollah, aware it is going to be hit hard, is in a use-it or-lose-it scenario, firing what projectiles it can into Israel.

Isreal's Strategy
The Israeli strategy appears to be designed to do two things.

First, the Israelis are trying to prevent any supplies from entering Lebanon, including reinforcements. That is why they are attacking all coastal maritime facilities.

Second, they are degrading the roads in Lebanon. That will keep reinforcements from reaching Hezbollah fighters engaged in the south. As important, it will prevent the withdrawal and redeployment of heavy equipment deployed by Hezbollah in the south, particularly their rockets, missiles and launchers. The Israelis are preparing the battlefield to prevent a Hezbollah retreat or maneuver.​

Hezbollah's Strategy
Hezbollah's strategy has been imposed on it. It seems committed to standing and fighting. The rate of fire they are maintaining into Israel is clearly based on an expectation that Israel will be attacking. <u>The rocketry guarantees the Israelis will attack</u>.

Hezbollah has been reported to have anti-tank and anti-air weapons. The Israelis will use airmobile tactics to surround and isolate Hezbollah concentrations, but in the end, they will have to go in, engage and defeat Hezbollah tactically.

Hezbollah obviously knows this, but there is no sign of disintegration on its part. At the very least, Hezbollah is projecting an appetite for combat. Sources in Beirut, who have been reliable to this point, say Hezbollah has weapons that have not yet been seen, such as anti-aircraft missiles, and that these will be used shortly. Whatever the truth of this, Hezbollah does not seem to think its situation is hopeless.


The Syrians
The uncertain question is Syria. No matter how effectively Israel seals the Lebanese coast, so long as the Syrian frontier is open, Hezbollah might get supplies from there, and might be able to retreat there. So far, there has been only one reported airstrike on a Syrian target. Both Israel and Syria were quick to deny this.

What is interesting is that it was the Syrians who insisted very publicly that no such attack took place. The Syrians are clearly trying to avoid a situation in which they are locked into a confrontation with Israel. Israel might well think this is the time to have it out with Syria as well, but Syria is trying very hard not to give Israel casus belli. In addition, Syria is facilitating the movement of Westerners out of Lebanon, allowing them free transit. They are trying to signal that they are being cooperative and nonaggressive.

The problem is this: While Syria does not want to get hit and will not make overt moves, so long as the Syrians cannot guarantee supplies will not reach Hezbollah or that Hezbollah won't be given sanctuary in Syria, Israel cannot complete its mission of shattering Hezbollah and withdrawing. They could be drawn into an Iraq-like situation that they absolutely don't want. Israel is torn. On the one hand, it wants to crush Hezbollah, and that requires total isolation. On the other hand, it does not want the Syrian regime to fall. What comes after would be much worse from Israel's point of view.

Problem With the Israeli Strategy - Hope For Hezbollah
This is the inherent problem built into Israel's strategy, and what gives Hezbollah some hope. If Israel does not attack Syria, Hezbollah could well survive Israel's attack by moving across the border into Syria. No matter how many roads are destroyed, Israel won't be able to prevent major Hezbollah formations moving across the border. If they do attack Syria and crush al Assad's government, Hezbollah could come out of this stronger than ever.

Judging from the airstrikes in the past 24 hours, it would appear Israel is trying to solve the problem tactically, by degrading Lebanese transport facilities. That could increase the effectiveness of the strategy, but in the end cannot be sufficient. We continue to think Israel will choose not to attack Syria directly and therefore, while the invasion will buy time, it will not solve the problem. Hezbollah certainly expects to be badly hurt, but it does not seem to expect to be completely annihilated. We are guessing, but our guess is that they are reading Israel's views on Syria and are betting that, in the long run, they will come out stronger. Of course, Israel knows this and therefore may have a different plan for Syria. At any rate, this is the great unknown in this campaign.

Withdrawal of Westerners or Become Hostage Pawns
The other unknown is the withdrawal of Western nationals from Lebanon. We have received very reliable reports from sources in Lebanon who assure us Hezbollah does not intend to renew hostage taking, which is deemed an old and nonproductive strategy. These same sources have reported splits in Hezbollah over how aggressive it should be. We believe Hezbollah has no current plans for hostage taking. We are not convinced, however, that in the course of the battle it will not change its mind, or that with weakened central control elements, elements of Hezbollah will take hostages as a bargaining chip. Regardless of what Hezbollah is saying now, hostage taking must be taken seriously as a possibility.

The U.S. Embassy in Beirut is now saying plans are being developed in concert with the U.S. Defense Department for extracting U.S. nationals from Lebanon. A convoy scheduled to travel from the American University of Beirut to Amman, Jordan, via Syria, was cancelled at the last moment, with participants being told that the embassy has other plans.

There are said to be 25,000 U.S. citizens in Lebanon, but many of these are Lebanese-American dual nationals who actually live in Lebanon as Lebanese. These are less visible, less at risk and have greater resources for survival. The most at-risk Americans are those who hold only U.S. papers and are clearly American, such as employees of American companies, students studying at Lebanese universities and tourists. There is no clear count of these high-risk nationals, nor is there a count on high-risk nationals from other non-Islamic countries. There are thousands, however, and getting them out will be difficult.

The U.S. Embassy is considering flying them to Cyprus. That would mean an air bridge from Beirut International Airport, where a single runway has been opened, to Cyprus, a short flight away. The United States will not do this while Beirut is under attack, so it will ask the Israelis to create a safe zone and air corridor during the evacuation. But the threat on the ground is real, and we suspect the United States will send troops in to secure the perimeter and surrounding areas against shoulder-launched missiles. They will also keep the precise timing secret, although thousands of people in Lebanon -- the evacuees -- will know it is coming.

There was a Marine Expeditionary Force on maneuvers in the Red Sea a few days ago. We do not know where they are now, but they had 2,200 marines on board -- the right number to secure extraction. We suspect aircraft will be chartered from airlines in the region and that some U.S. Air Force and allied aircraft might also be used. Doubtless, the United States is busy organizing it. Given that the United States cancelled several ad hoc withdrawals, it must be highly confident it has the process nailed; we would expect this operation to get going sometime Sunday. Assuming aircraft that can carry any average of 200 people (purely arbitrary), 50-100 flights could get everyone out. Assuming that everyone can be notified and can get to Beirut International Airport. That won't happen. The remainder who are at risk will probably be advised to move into Christian areas east and northeast of Beirut and to keep their heads down for the duration. It is also possible that discussion of Cyprus notwithstanding, the path will be through Syria, but we doubt that.

Israeli Ground Forces - Hezbollah Ready
In the meantime, that Israel has not sent major ground units into Lebanon yet (lots of small units are operating there) but is taking rocket attacks and hunkering down indicates it does not plan to act piecemeal. If we were to guess, the main thrust would likely begin late Sunday night or Monday morning. They will be ready by then. Of course we are not privy to Israeli operations, so it could be delayed 24-48 hours to give forces a chance to gear up. But given the Hezbollah bombardment, the Israelis are under pressure to move sooner rather than later.

We are in a relatively quiet spell (emphasis on quiet). Both sides have made their strategic decisions. Both know how the war will be fought. Hezbollah thinks it can give as good as it will get for a while, and will ultimately be able to regroup for a guerrilla war against the Israelis. Israel thinks it can immobilize and crush Hezbollah quickly and decisively and will be able to withdraw. Both sides know Syria is the wild card, and neither is quite sure how it will play its hand. One side is wrong in its expectations about the outcome. That's the nature of war.

Stratfor.com
 

Dolemite

Star
Registered
QueEx said:
Interesting the way this thing is shaping up. According to reports
I've read, the "War Equation" seems to be shaping up like this:

(1) Iran funds, supports, urges and arms Hezbollah;

(2) Iran supports and urges Syria;

(3) Syria supports Hezbollah;

(4) Hezbollah kidnaps 2 Israeli soldiers - knowing Israel will retaliate;

(5) Israel tries to get its soldiers back and attacks Hezbollah;

blows up Lebonese civilian infrastructure- not exactly Hezbollah

(6) Hezbollah launches an attack on Israel - via Katyuska Rockets;

(7) Since Iran funds, supports, urges and arms Hezbollah, the attack by
Hezbollah is an attack by Iran, though indirectly, against Israel; and since
Syria supports/funds Hezbollah, the attack by Hezbollah is also an attack
by Syria upon Israel;

(8) So, if Israel strikes back at Syria -- Iran says that will be an attack
against Iran - - and Iran will strike (directly) Israel;

(9) Since the United States supports/funds Israel, an attack by Iran and
Syria against Israel (through Hezbollah), is an attack upon the United States ???

Do I have this right ???

QueEx

I think you're a little bit off. But I see the whole archduke ferdinand setup being there too.

1)Europeans lose "The Holy Land", which they never had, in the final episode of the crusades.

2)European Jewish settlers from Eastern Europe begin moving to Palestine in the 1800s.

3)British Imperialism dominates the Middle East after the defeat of the Ottoman Empire.

4) European Settlers and Palestinians engage in periodic conflicts.

5) In the wake of WW2 The British and UN give away British Occupied Palestine to form a new jewish nation "Israel". Millions of Palestinians are displaced and thousands killed when UN armed and backed jewish settlers forcefully evict noneuropean Palestinians from their homes, farms and land.

6) Numerous wars and conflicts in the Middle East take place with Muslim Holy Land and Palestinian eviction at the root of the problem.

7) Lebanon is immersed in 20 years of civil war when Israel arms and funds the Lebanese Christian minority. Ariel Sharon allows Lebonese Christian militias to kill thousands of unarmed palestinian women and children in a Lebonese refugee camp guarded by Israeli troops. Sharon is later charged with war crimes and loses his military position because of the incident.

8)Hezbollah finally pushes Israeli forces out of Lebanon after 20 years of sustained conflict. Hezbollah still claims the Shebaa Farms section of land that Israel annexed during the conflict.



That about sums it up to me. I left out the untried political prisoners and prisoners of war Israel has in prison from Lebanon etc.



Notice how Israel has killed 100 Lebonese civilians over 8 soldiers.
Notice how Haifa is in range of Hezbollah missiles and how the Israeli's feel terrorized. Its funny how they couldn't give a shit about how they have terrorized innocent Palestinian and Lebonese civilians.



This has been a severly bad week for the Israeli military. Another tank blown up, a very very rare thing, 3 soldiers held captive,12-20 dead, a naval vessel taken out of commission and basically no way to stop missile attacks from hitting the previously secure interior coastal areas including possibly Tel Aviv.

Lebanon will be turned into dust or there will be some sort of peace process.
This could very easily turn into a great way for the US and Israel to take out Iran's nuclear facilities.

Has the environment ever been better for an Israeli war? Airbases and hundreds of thousands of US troops in Iraq, a clear invite to the dance from Iranian backed troops in Lebanon, totally indifferent regimes accross the Middle East.
Let's take roll

Turkey - US bases and ally - pending EU membership adds up to no waves
Jordan - US ally
Egypt - Mubarrak could give a shit
Libya - US friend now
Saudi Arabia- US ally

What's really there to stop the US and Israel from doing whatever they want to?

$7 a gallon gasoline might hurt the US economy and people but that doesnt mean shit to Big Oil who runs the country.

Even if they do it and the repubs lose the midterms and Hillary is the next pres the American public are still fucked because that chick is 10 times worse than GW. I don't see any reason why the US and Israel wouldn't push this shit into a fullscale conflict. Sooner or later they will have to press the nuclear issue to a point of violence anyway


let's see how this pays off for Israel - IMO there is no way this pays off longterm for the Israeli position- they can't out populate the arabs and they wont outgun them forever either

wtf happened to diplomacy? :smh:
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
`

It all boils down to Iran
Boston Globe
July 16, 2006

OPENING A security conference in Tehran on July 8, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad exhorted the Islamic world to mobilize against Israel and `remove the Zionist regime." Four days later, Hezbollah terrorists staged a raid across Israel's northern border, kidnapping two Israeli soldiers and killing eight more.

Was it just a coincidence that Ahmadinejad's prediction of ``a huge explosion" came only days before Hezbollah's assault across the border and its unprecedented attack on Haifa? Or did the rabid president of the evil regime that bankrolls Hezbollah with an estimated $200 million a year know what was coming?

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ed...rticles/2006/07/16/it_all_boils_down_to_iran/

`
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
`

Syria vows to respond directly to any Israel strike

AFP
Sunday, July 16, 2006 15:42 IST

DAMASCUS: Syria on Sunday warned it would respond directly and by all means necessary to any Israeli attack on its territory, in its first official reaction to Israel's offensive on neighbouring Lebanon.

"Any Israeli attack against Syria will provoke an unlimited, direct and firm response using all means necessary," Information Minister Mohsen Bilal said, according to the official SANA news agency.

Damascus-ally Iran also warned arch-enemy Israel of unimaginable losses if it attacks Syria and vowed that it was standing by the Syrian people.

"We hope the Zionist regime does not make the mistake of attacking Syria, because extending the front would definitely make the Zionist regime face unimaginable losses," foreign ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told reporters.

Israel said on Saturday that Syria was not a target in its offensive, after firing rockets close to the Lebanese-Syrian border.

http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1041982

`
 

SAFOOL

Star
Registered
Posted this oon the main board but it probably belongs here.
http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=9301
Israel Crosses the Line
And you read it here first…
by Justin Raimondo

The Israeli offensive against Iran – until now, purely polemical – morphed into military action the moment the IDF crossed the border into Lebanon and took on Hezbollah. As our regular readers know, this turn of events was predicted in this space two months ago:

"War with Iran will probably not begin with a frontal assault by the U.S. and/or Israel on Iran's alleged nuclear weapons facilities, or even a skirmish along the Iraq-Iran border. Look to Lebanon and Syria for the first battlegrounds of this developing regional war. The Israelis know perfectly well that Iran's nuclear ambitions, if they ever materialize, are not an immediate threat: their real concern is their volatile northern border, where their deadly enemies – Hezbollah – are an effective obstacle to Israeli influence. The Israelis are also looking to exploit growing opportunities to make trouble in Syria, where the restive Kurds are their reliable allies, and the brittleness of the Ba'athist dictatorship is an invitation to regime change."

The suggestion, by Professors John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, in their now famous "The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy," that the Iraq war was fought for Israel's sake, and against our own interests in the region, was received in many quarters with outright horror, and not only from the Amen Corner. Noam Chomsky and Stephen Zunes both objected to this thesis of an Israel-centric foreign policy: Israel, they insist, is the "junior partner" of the American hegemon, and is only acting at the behest and under the de facto control of its masters in Washington.

The war's aftermath, however, tells a different story. Examined in light of Israel's postwar actions – the unilateral "withdrawal" from Gaza, the absorption of more territory and the building of more settlements on the West Bank, the war against Hamas, and now the re-invasion of Lebanon – the chief (and only) beneficiary of the new regional balance of power is clear enough. The American invasion and occupation of the Mesopotamian heartland has empowered the Israelis as never before – and now they are on the offensive, carving out a greatly expanded sphere of influence extending into Kurdistan as well as Lebanon, bringing closer to fulfillment the old Zionist vision of an empire stretching "from the Nile to the Euphrates."

The U.S., on the other hand, has considerably reduced leverage in the region. Our troops in Iraq are exposed, vulnerable to the Iranians – and stalemated by the Iraqi insurgency, which shows troubling signs of extending into Shi'ite areas. As the Israelis advance, with American support, Sunni and Shi'ite factions in Iraq – including those in the governing Shi'ite coalition – are radicalized, and turn their fire on the Americans.

Yet the U.S. is still shilling for the Israelis, blaming Syria and Iran for acts that occurred well outside the purview of the mullahs and the increasingly isolated regime of Bashar al-Assad. Meanwhile, in the UN, we are bringing the issue of Iran's nuclear power program to the Security Council, pressing for a confrontation that can only end in $200-per-barrel oil.

In 1996, a group of pro-Israeli Americans – including Richard Perle, James Colbert, Charles Fairbanks Jr., Douglas Feith, Robert Loewenberg, David Wurmser, and Meyrav Wurmser – prepared a policy statement for then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that proposed a strategy of regime change as the only solution for Israel's growing encirclement and isolation. The main problem, they averred in "A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm," was Syria, and the troublesome border with Lebanon:

"Syria challenges Israel on Lebanese soil. An effective approach, and one with which American can sympathize, would be if Israel seized the strategic initiative along its northern borders by engaging Hizballah, Syria, and Iran, as the principal agents of aggression in Lebanon."

But this could occur only if Iraq was taken out first:

"Israel can shape its strategic environment, in cooperation with Turkey and Jordan, by weakening, containing, and even rolling back Syria. This effort can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq — an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right — as a means of foiling Syria's regional ambitions."

With Saddam out of the way, the second phase of the "Clean Break" scenario is unfolding before our eyes. And the propaganda war is going just as well as the military aspect of the campaign: the Israelis are no fools. They realize they can't proceed without the tacit complicity of the U.S. and the Europeans, who must be made to look the other way as the IDF commits war crimes on the ground. Under the pretext of avenging the "kidnapping" of one of their soldiers – and, more recently, two more – they have unleashed a military assault planned well in advance of the allegedly precipitating incidents.

This is surely one of the most threadbare excuses for a war ever uttered. One wonders how Israel's spokesmen can say it with a straight face. Soldiers in wartime are captured, not "kidnapped." If Hezbollah has "kidnapped" those two Israeli soldiers, then how do we describe the jailing of thousands of Palestinians, including hundreds of women and children, on the basis of their alleged sympathy for Hamas – now the democratically elected government of Palestine? In any case, it appears, according to this report, that Hezbollah has some Israeli competition when it comes to the business of kidnapping.

The Bush administration is formally committed to the "road map," which entails the creation of a Palestinian state. Yet the Israelis have done everything possible to undermine Bush's plan, including obstructing elections. The American response has been appeasement: as Israeli gunboats make short work of Gaza beach-goers, Washington's response is to demand the unconditional release of captured Israeli soldiers. There is an undertone of disapproval, as Condoleezza Rice urges "restraint" by all parties and the president worries that the Lebanese government will be destabilized, yet none of this is allowed to deflect U.S. policymakers from their craven course of kowtowing to the Israelis while they spend our money and earn us plenty more enemies among the world's billion-plus Muslims.

Israel's fifth column in America has been enormously successful in "spinning" the latest news from the Middle East. Instead of reporting that Israel is invading Lebanon, the "mainstream" media avers that Israel has "entered" Lebanon – as casually as one would enter a room in one's own house. The first few paragraphs of many news stories describe the latest attacks on Israeli targets and accounts of the damage done, while, five paragraphs down, we finally get word that 55 civilians have been killed by the latest Israeli aerial bombardment of Lebanon.

The Mearsheimer-Walt thesis – that U.S. foreign policy has been hijacked (kidnapped, if you will) by what they refer to as "the Lobby" – has so far been confirmed by the events of the past few days. The United States is giving what appears to be unconditional support to phase two of the "Clean Break" plan, targeting Syria and Iran, albeit while cautioning the Israelis on Lebanon.

The Israelis, outraged by what they regard as foot-dragging in Washington, are forcing Uncle Sam's hand. If we won't fire the first shots of World War IV, then they are perfectly willing to do so – confident that we'll follow them blindly into the maelstrom.

Whether the Bush administration will go all the way with the Israelis on this one, is, however, in some doubt. The alleged triumph of the Republican "realists" over the neoconservatives, supposedly symbolized by the ascension of Condi Rice, is counteracted by the Democrats' complete subservience to the Lobby. Already Hillary Clinton is denouncing the administration for "appeasing" Iran, and the sudden reappearance of the neocons in Democratic Party circles is indicative of what is going on here. Foreign policy is merely a reflection of domestic political pressures – which, in this case, surely do not represent either the views or the interests of the American people.

Mearsheimer and Walt explain how we got into this mess, but they don't give us any answers about how to get out. How do we avoid getting dragged by our Israeli "allies" into World War IV?

The short answer: stop appeasing Israel – and start looking out for American interests. The Amen Corner makes no such distinction, but clearly there is one, the most obvious being that we (unlike the Israelis) have no interest fomenting a wider war – especially while our troops are stuck in the middle of it all, lined up like sitting ducks and increasingly on the defensive.

The U.S. must unequivocally condemn the invasion of Lebanon and call for the unconditional withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Lebanese soil. Furthermore, the naval and aerial blockade of Lebanon must end: thousands of tourists and others are pouring into Syria, where they may not be safe for very much longer. This is an intolerable act of war against the whole civilized community, and for the United States government to not only stand by but implicitly condone it is unforgivable. The "war on terrorism" apparently requires enabling Israeli state terrorism.

The regional conflict widely predicted as one of the more horrific consequences of the Iraq invasion is now breaking out. The only rational response is to get out of the way before we are drawn in. Like a summer fire in the American West, if it isn't contained, the flames of the rapidly spreading conflict will soon be licking at our door. And we are bound to be choking, sooner rather than later, on the economic fallout – another factor that could embolden the Democrats to keep up their effort to outflank the GOP on the war question from the right.

As both parties fall into lockstep behind the Lobby, and American power and prestige are once again harnessed to Israeli interests, there is little hope that Congress will step into the breach and stop our headlong plunge into World War IV. Nor do any of the likely presidential candidates seem willing to take on the War Party when the question of war and peace is put in terms of Israel's interests – or, as the Lobby would have it, the Jewish state's continued survival. Here is a war they can sell by confronting critics with a simple question: What are you, some kind of anti-Semite?

Years of relentless propaganda, countless smear campaigns, and a prodigious expenditure of money and human resources led us to this moment: the War Party is launching what amounts to its final offensive, an all-out attack on whatever bastions of human decency and common sense remain in this hideously war-crazed post-9/11 world. Come what may, we at Antiwar.com will stand at our posts, pouring hot molten editorials down on the enemy – and giving you the best, most accurate reporting on events in the Middle East anywhere on the Internet, or anywhere else, for that matter.
 

African Herbsman

Star
Registered
This offer will be refused


Israel sets conditions for cease-fire

1 hour, 1 minute ago

JERUSALEM -
Israel would agree to a cease-fire in its six-day-old offensive against Hezbollah if the Lebanese guerrillas withdraw from the border area with Israel and release two captured Israeli soldiers, a senior official said Monday.


The official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the diplomacy, said Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had conveyed Israel's position to Italy's prime minister, who is trying to broker a cease-fire deal.

Israel had previously demanded the full dismantling of Hezbollah as a condition for ending hostilities. However, the senior official said Israel would agree to Hezbollah merely leaving the border area — with the Lebanese army taking its place.
 

African Herbsman

Star
Registered
I hope Israel doesn't covertly attack American citizens and blame others as a means to escalate the conflict"

Ship to evacuate Americans from Lebanon

By HAMZA HENDAWI and GEORGE PSYLLIDES, Associated Press Writers 23 minutes ago

BEIRUT, Lebanon - A commercial ship escorted by a U.S. destroyer will start evacuating some Americans from war-torn Lebanon on Tuesday and more military helicopters will be used to fly others direct to Cyprus, a U.S. official said Monday.
ADVERTISEMENT

The plans stepped up as
Israel appeared to be allowing evacuation ships through its blockade of Lebanon.

At the
Pentagon, spokesman Bryan Whitman said the commercial ship, the Orient Queen, which can carry up to 750 people, will take evacuees to Cyprus. A
U.S. Navy destroyer, the USS Gonzalez, will escort it and the USS Iwo Jima may do so as well, he said.

There are some 25,000 Americans in Lebanon, and the U.S. Embassy has already advised those who wish to leave that they should prepare their bags — one each person, weighing no more than 30 pounds — and be ready for announcements on how to leave.

Thus far, three CH-53 Super Stallion helicopters — each with a passenger capacity of 36 — are available to fly evacuees from Beirut to a British air base on Cyprus, Whitman said, and more choppers will be made available on Tuesday.

On Sunday, two CH-53s from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which has been conducting an exercise with Jordanian forces, evacuated 21 Americans from the U.S. Embassy compound in Beirut, and Whitman said more flights were taking place Monday. He declined to provide more details about Monday's flights, citing security reasons.

More than 100 Marines were in Cyprus from the North Carolina-based unit, which is based aboard amphibious landing ships, including the Iwo Jima.

Some Americans have privately driven to
Syria in recent days and from there flown to Jordan, although the U.S. government has advised Americans not to leave through Syria.

A U.S. Embassy statement released Monday instructed American citizens to be ready to leave, but did not say how it planned to evacuate them. Further instructions, it added, would be publicized both in local media and on the Embassy's web site.

The State and Defense departments were coordinating to ensure that the evacuation is "safe and carried out in an orderly fashion," the Embassy statement said.

Meanwhile, on the nearby Mediterranean island nation of Cyprus, the government there made preparations to help with the evacuation of the thousands expected to be brought out of Lebanon by the United States and European countries.

"At this stage we don't have an exact number of people. ... We'll surely have four or five ships this week alone," said Foreign Ministry official Omiros Mavromatis.

An Italian ship carrying nearly 400 evacuees was expected in the Cyprus port of Larnaca by Monday evening. The evacuees were headed to Beirut on a convoy of 17 buses.

Greece also was sending a navy frigate to a Lebanese port to pick up 100 people and has three additional warships on standby.

France, which has more than 20,000 citizens in Lebanon, chartered a Greek ferry to pick up as many as 1,200 French and other European citizens in Lebanon. Hundreds of French, mostly of Lebanese origin or partners in mixed marriages, were expected to begin boarding the ferry late Monday.

"Who knows when this will end," said Habib al-Saad, who was seeing his three sons off. "If any of our Arab leaders had a brain this would have been resolved a long time ago. But they don't," al-Saad said as his sons — Marwan, 20, Thomas, 17, and Pierre, 10 — looking bewildered and anxious — listened to their father in silence.

"I am not worried about them," al-Saad said. "They will look after themselves."

Overall in Lebanon, hundreds of thousands were on the move, leaving areas considered dangerous for the relative safety of the hills east of Beirut, the eastern Bekaa valley and northern Lebanon.

Wisam Musalam, a statistics student in Lyons, France, was standing in line outside the French Culture Center, waiting to register his name for evacuation. He is not a French national, but has a residence permit in France.

"Slowly, slowly we will become like the Palestinians," he said. "A nation of refugees."

Among other developments:

• About 850 Swedes among about 5,000 in Lebanon have been evacuated, largely to the city of Aleppo in northern Syria. Sweden also chartered three ships to bring Swedes from Beirut to Cyprus, but was awaiting security guarantees from the warring parties.

• A British aircraft carrier and another warship — both already in the Mediterranean — set off Sunday on a three-day trip to the Middle East in preparation for the possible evacuation of Britons. A British Foreign Office spokesman said the first wave of Britons — children, elderly and ill people — left Sunday aboard the helicopter that also transported
European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana.

• Denmark began evacuating some 2,300 people by bus to Damascus, Syria. So far, some 700 have returned home, the Danish government said.

• Russia's Foreign Ministry said there were more than 1,400 Russian citizens in Lebanon and more than 1,000 were ready to leave.
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
African Herbsman said:
Israel has refused the prisoner swap.
I don't think a prisoner swap is important right now. A ceasfire and a prisoner swap is the easy part. Seems to me, Israel wants to ensure that Hezbollah won't be able to lob rockets and snatch Israelis across the border -- thats the real issue.

Hezbollah says its not leaving southern Lebanon (the weak ass Lebanese Army is powerless in its own country) and is talking about its ready for all out war[/i] with Israel. Hez probably wants the Israeli's to put some boots on the ground in southern Lebanon so that it can pull some Iraqi-insurgent style attacks and put some hurt on the Israeli ground forces -- so that it can claim it has done something no other Arab force has ever done. The Isrealis aren't stupid. They're pounding the shit out of Hez from the air and with shelling degrading Hez's capabilities and if it does go in on the ground, Hez's ass will be less of a force than it might be now.

Bottom line, I don't think a ceasefire is "ripe" just yet. The Israelis might be talking cease fire, but there won't be a ceasefire until the Israelis have put a lot of bombs, sharpnel and rubble on top of Hezbollah's ass.

just thinking out loud ...

QueEx
 

Makkonnen

The Quizatz Haderach
BGOL Investor
QueEx said:
I don't think a prisoner swap is important right now. A ceasfire and a prisoner swap is the easy part. Seems to me, Israel wants to ensure that Hezbollah won't be able to lob rockets and snatch Israelis across the border -- thats the real issue.

Hezbollah says its not leaving southern Lebanon (the weak ass Lebanese Army is powerless in its own country) and is talking about its ready for all out war[/i] with Israel. Hez probably wants the Israeli's to put some boots on the ground in southern Lebanon so that it can pull some Iraqi-insurgent style attacks and put some hurt on the Israeli ground forces -- so that it can claim it has done something no other Arab force has ever done. The Isrealis aren't stupid. They're pounding the shit out of Hez from the air and with shelling degrading Hez's capabilities and if it does go in on the ground, Hez's ass will be less of a force than it might be now.

Bottom line, I don't think a ceasefire is "ripe" just yet. The Israelis might be talking cease fire, but there won't be a ceasefire until the Israelis have put a lot of bombs, sharpnel and rubble on top of Hezbollah's ass.

just thinking out loud ...

QueEx

israel just killed 8 canadian civilians in lebanon and the vatican and others are pressing them on the indiscriminate civilian killing thing

no matter how this ends Hezbollah wins. The Israeli army left Lebanon cuz they couldnt beat Hezbollah, whatever happens here short of giving back Shebaa Farms and prisoners won't end with Hezbollah losing anything. They have done more in the past week than the entire Arab world over the past 40 years.
Israel doesn't even want to send ground troops into Lebanon now that their tanks are vulnerable.

Hezbollah really tried to bail out Hamas and said as much when they took the Israeli soldiers but people dont want to focus on the West Bank/Gaza situation or the fact Israel has killed or took prisoner almost all of the Hamas led Palestinian Government.


As long as Israel has no moral standing in these conflicts they lose. They have assured Hezbollah will have new recruits for the next 20 years with their latest "punish everyone" response.
 

Maximumtrini

Star
OG Investor
The Israelis are gonna go all the way to destroy Hezbollah this time. No matter how wrong it is for the Israelis to have these prisoners, they aren't gonna capitulate. Hezbollah would start capturing soldiers all the time after that.
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
Makkonnen said:
israel just killed 8 canadian civilians in lebanon and the vatican and others are pressing them on the indiscriminate civilian killing thing
Everybody hollas about indiscriminate civilian killing. You (I hope) and I both know that it is virtually impossible to avoid civilian deaths in damn near <u>any</u> military action. That is especially true when any force intermingles its military apparatus with the civilian population. Some, Hezbollah, intermingle purposely to cause civilian deaths in any retaliation -- so that the world will scream. Don't get me wrong, I despise needless loss of civilian life as much as the next person, but I also know if you closely mix military apparatus and civilian quarters, its going to happen.

BTW, Hezbollah hasn't hit too many military targets, yet. Guess the Israelis would be wrong for claiming Hezbollah is kiling civilians?

no matter how this ends Hezbollah wins. The Israeli army left Lebanon cuz they couldnt beat Hezbollah, whatever happens here short of giving back Shebaa Farms and prisoners won't end with Hezbollah losing anything. They have done more in the past week than the entire Arab world over the past 40 years.
Israel doesn't even want to send ground troops into Lebanon now that their tanks are vulnerable.
I'm not defending the Israelis but the fact is, all the sideline cheering for one party or the other aside, it wouldn't make sense for the Israelis to go in <u>until</u> it feels it has sufficiently degraded Hezbollah. However, if Hez continues with the rockets and a ceasefire hasn't been declared, the Israelis will commit ground forces, as it sees fit. In my opinion, the Israelis are tolerating the rockets in an attempt to gain the understanding of world opinion, if not the higher moral ground, so to speak. No one, you included, would forever tolerate someone lobbing rockets into your country/backyard. And, most people will understand if you take action to stop the barrage. Same with the Israelis.

Hezbollah really tried to bail out Hamas Hezbollah really tried to bail out Hamas ...
Which means also then, they committed a provocation?

... people dont want to focus on the West Bank/Gaza situation or the fact Israel has killed or took prisoner almost all of the Hamas led Palestinian Government.
All of the issues, Palestinian and Isreali, need FOCUS. See my next response.


As long as Israel has no moral standing in these conflicts they lose. They have assured Hezbollah will have new recruits for the next 20 years with their latest "punish everyone" response.
Look, this fight, past fights and future fights all have one thing at the core: THE EXISTENCE OF ISRAEL. I don't think the Israelis are about to go anywhere anytime soon, if ever. The Arabs need to get over it; Jordan, Turkey, Egypt, most of Lebanon, the Saudis and the Mediterranean Sea, and many of the Palestinians have. Those who don't tend to be of the "radical" stripe.

There are possibilities for peace in the Middle East and its going to take some arm twisting of the Israelis and Palestinians to get there. The "Extremists" ... Hamas and Hezbollah, Al Qaeda and the rest of the Jihadist all want what is just not going to happen: the disappearance of Israel. Like it or not.

QueEx
 

SAFOOL

Star
Registered
Maximumtrini said:
The Israelis are gonna go all the way to destroy Hezbollah this time. No matter how wrong it is for the Israelis to have these prisoners, they aren't gonna capitulate. Hezbollah would start capturing soldiers all the time after that.

The thing to remember is Hezbollah doesnt have to win a single battle to wins this war. All they have to do is resist. It worked when we fought the Britts, its working in Iraq and it will work there again. Just something about fighting people in their land when you could be at home that makes people quit. I guess they could round them all up and gas them but..........nobody wants to go there anymore.
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
Maximumtrini said:
The Israelis are gonna go all the way to destroy Hezbollah this time. No matter how wrong it is for the Israelis to have these prisoners, they aren't gonna capitulate. Hezbollah would start capturing soldiers all the time after that.
You make 2 good points; one I would agree with and one, maybe not.

(1) I agree that the Israelis are going to exact some punishment against Hezbollah, but I don't think they will utterly destroy it. Hez is not going to go toe to toe with the Israelis and it would be a fool to do so. Mano Y mano, the Israelis are no match for Hezbollah. So, Hez might stand for a bit but ultimately it will do much as the Iraqis did during the U.S. invasion -- it will run, flee and meld into the population to do just as the Iraqis have done -- launch an insurgency/guerilla campaign which nobody, including the Israelis, want or can have a lot of short-term success with. If Hez goes toe to toe with the Israelis, they lose big time. If Israel gets into a guerilla campaign with Hez, it loses.

(2) I agree whole heartedly that if Israel capitulated, Hezbollah would kidnap/capture Israelis, at will. If that happened, Israel would still find itself with the need to go after Hez. No need to put the inevitable off -- they're going to try to punish them now.

QueEx
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
Outside View: Disastrous miscalculations

<font size="5"><center>Outside View: Disastrous miscalculations</font size></center>

United Press International (UPI)
By ALON BEN-MEIR
UPI Outside View Commentator

NEW YORK, July 17 (UPI) -- As the violence in the Middle East escalates, it is hard not to conclude that every player involved directly or indirectly has badly miscalculated. This conflict will not end by a restoration of the status quo ante. Israel will refuse to allow a replay of the last two weeks. This means that there must be a dramatic change in both Lebanon and the Palestinian territories that satisfies Israel's security concerns and sends the Israelis and Palestinians to the negotiating table in a permanently calm atmosphere.

Miscalculations by Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh
By openly supporting the abduction and killing of an Israeli soldier and thereby siding with Hamas's military wing, perhaps against his own wishes, Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh has betrayed not only his own instincts but the Palestinian people who supported him. Recent events have revealed how weak he is and how little he is able to defuse the conflict. While squandering many opportunities to show some moderation, it is impossible to believe he imagined he could challenge Israel and emerge unscathed. This miscalculation has been one of too many that sooner or later, hopefully without too much bloodshed, will lead to a dramatic change in Palestinian internal politics.

Miscalculations by Hezbollah
Hezbollah has fared even worse than the Palestinians by badly miscalculating the Israeli reaction and counting on both the tacit and open support of Iran and Syria as well as the support of the Arab masses and governments to save the day. Knowing Israel's sensitivity to international pressure, Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah must have assumed the Israeli retaliation would be proportionate, as the European Community shamefully has in fact demanded. But why would Israel allow a terrorist organization to regroup and rearm in a month or two so it can rain down more destruction on Israeli towns? Seduced by his own rhetoric about how powerful and mighty Hezbollah is and eager to show solidarity with Hamas, Nasrallah overplayed his hand and now he is likely to pay a crippling price for his grandiosity.

Hezballoh certainly would not have attacked Israel without the acquiescence, if not the outright support, of Iran and Syria. Each of these countries had its own agenda. Syria wants to demonstrate that it is a regional player and it cannot be marginalized, while for Iran it was just another way to thwart U.S. and EU pressure to stop its nuclear program while forcing Israel to fight on two fronts. Supported, equipped, and financed by Iran and provided logistical help and political backing by Syria, Hezbollah was up for the job.

Miscalculations by Syria
But Syria and Iran underestimated the Israeli response. Somehow they were blinded to the fact that Hezbollah had crossed the line drawn in the sand by attacking urban areas inside Israel. To the Israelis this was totally and categorically unacceptable. The situation thus quickly morphed into a war that Israel will not lose and cannot afford to leave unfinished. Hezbollah, from the Israeli perspective, must now be dismantled or destroyed. For Syria and Iran, there is another loss looming: When the dust is settled, their influence in Lebanon will be dramatically diminished.

Miscalculations by Israel
Israel too has had its share of miscalculations. It ignored how important it was to win the hearts and minds of ordinary Palestinians and enable them to emotionally and intellectually separate themselves from radical Islamists. Rather than adopting a strategy that while inflicting crippling punishment on the radicals rewarded ordinary Palestinians, Israel generally resorted to tit-for-tat and collective punishment that tightened the alliance between ordinary Palestinians and the radicals. Moreover, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has initially shown tremendous restraints in dealing with the continuing barrages of Qassam attacks which send the wrong signal to militant Palestinians. And while Israel knew all along that Hezbollah was arming itself to the teeth with assortment of Iranian-made rockets it did very little to bring pressure to bear on Lebanon via U.S. intervention especially since there is a U.N. resolution calling for Hezbollah's disarmament.

Miscalculations by Lebanon
And what of Lebanon's miscalculations? Being weak and unable to confront Hezbollah is no excuse for the government's failure to assert control over its own territory. By trying to co-opt Hezbollah politically, but allowing it a free reign in the South and thus establishing a de facto state within a state, the Lebanese have painted themselves into a corner. Unable to challenge Hezbollah to disarm, Lebanon chose to hide behind its so-called democracy as if that would provide it automatic immunity from the transgressions of its coalition partners. Lebanon's condemnation of Israel without, at the same time, criticizing Hezbollah for its unprovoked attack makes it complicit to an act of war, for which it has directly reaped the consequences.

Miscalculations by Bush
As for the Bush administration, obsessed with the promotion of democracy in the region, albeit in name only, and bogged down in a bloody war in Iraq, it essentially left the Israelis and Palestinians to their own devices. With no permanent presidential envoy having the authority to nudge the two parties closer, there was nothing in place to stop the conflict from escalating. Moreover, satisfied with a weak and fragmented government in Lebanon, Washington acquiesced to Hezbollah, a terrorist group, to become a legitimate partner in the Lebanese government. What has made matters worse is that while Syria and Iran enjoy the only direct influence on Hezbollah and freely meddle in Lebanese internal affairs, Washington has no relations with Iran and limited, mostly acrimonious contact with Syria.

The Saudis
In this sea of miscalculations, it would be easy to ignore the Saudi Arabian response and its significance. But Riyadh's strongly worded, unambiguous condemnation of Hezbollah's brazen across-the-border attack suggests the outrage felt by many Arab states. They realize how ominous it can be for their own economic security and political stability to allow renegade groups to usurp the Arab agenda and drag them into a potentially devastating conflict. Most of these states will shed few tears on seeing Hezbollah and Hamas clobbered and permanently marginalized in Arab politics.

What is to be done?
What is to be done? Strategically, Israel must focus on Lebanon, knowing that how the confrontation with Hezbollah ends will have serious repercussions on the Palestinian front. Considering the implications for their national security, the Israelis have no choice but to finish off Hezbollah by destroying its infrastructure and arsenals. Fearing Israel's long and punishing military arm, neither Syria nor Iran will dare to come to Hezbollah's aid. Israel is not likely to stop short of putting an end to Hezbollah as it is constituted, thereby enabling a Lebanese government to be in control of its southern borders to establish permanent calm.

This outcome will send an unmistakable message to Hamas that they must immediately decide between continuing to exist and vanishing from the political scene. Israel, too, must rethink its long-term Palestinian strategy and, with the support of the United States, work with Palestinian moderates to create a breakthrough out of the rubble of this dreadful breakdown.


--


(Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU and is the Middle East Project Director at the World Policy Institute, New York. He can be reached at alon@alonben-meir.com)


--


(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)



http://www.upi.com/InternationalIntelligence/view.php?StoryID=20060717-102942-7578r
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
African Herbsman said:
I hope Israel doesn't covertly attack American citizens and blame others as a means to escalate the conflict"

Ship to evacuate Americans from Lebanon

By HAMZA HENDAWI and GEORGE PSYLLIDES, Associated Press Writers 23 minutes ago.
Looks like you aren't the only one worried about attacks on evacuees ...

<font size="4"><center>US orders 5 warships and 2,200 Marines
to secure the evacuation of US citizens from Lebanon</font size></center>


July 18, 2006, 7:33 PM (GMT+02:00)

DEBKAfile reports: Israel has agreed to halt its air bombardment of Hizballah targets in locations where tens of thousands of foreigners are waiting to be lifted out of Lebanon Tuesday, July 18. They include all non-essential UN staff from Beirut. However, Israeli military leaders fear this will leave Hizballah free to exploit the evacuations, including many women and children, as a human shield for posting its long-range missiles and firing them against Israel. Beirut harbor, the main departure point, would be the best vantage point for Hizballah to aim its long-range missiles against Israel’s heavily populated coastal cities.

The US and British embassies in Beirut which are coordinating the large-scale evacuations also fear Hizballah may attack the evacuees in the convoys at the most vulnerable points, on their way to the rescue crafts or during embarkation - and then accuse Israel. Washington, London, Paris and Berlin requested and received Israeli guarantees for its air force and navy to hold their fire until the operation which could last two or three days is completed.

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=2919
 

African Herbsman

Star
Registered
QueEx said:
The US and British embassies in Beirut which are coordinating the large-scale evacuations also fear Hizballah may attack the evacuees in the convoys at the most vulnerable points, on their way to the rescue crafts or during embarkation - and then accuse Israel.

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=2919

A blind man can see through that bullshit. Israel has a history murdering American's to incite anti-Arab sentiment. (U.S.S Liberty) The Lebanese resistance has nothing to gain by targeting evacuations of westerners, that would be suicidal. On the other hand Israel has everything to gain by attacking and blaming the resistance. Public opinion would sway in Israeli direction and the U.S. would retaliate.


[frame]http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/ussliberty.html[/frame]
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
African Herbsman said:
A blind man can see through that bullshit. Israel has a history murdering American's to incite anti-Arab sentiment. (U.S.S Liberty) The Lebanese resistance has nothing to gain by targeting evacuations of westerners, that would be suicidal. On the other hand Israel has everything to gain by attacking and blaming the resistance. Public opinion would sway in Israeli direction and the U.S. would retaliate.
A.H., if you'e going to make wild and outlandish claims, at least try to back them up using something analogous. The USS Liberty incident did not, I repeat, did not, involve shooting at evacuees to cause American intervention. I served in navint and researched and wrote a white paper from sigint analysis of that incident. One of the best guesses is that the Israelis wanted to turn the U.S.'s "Lights Out" -- that is, shut down American in-theatre intelligence collection while it did its thing, quite possibly to avert American interference -- <u>not</u> encourage it.

I haven't seen either where Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria, Iran, the U.S. or Lebanon has raised the fears you have. You're out-ballin Hezballa, Balla!!! LOL.

QueEx
 
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