First let’s start by not over reacting to the Bulls loss in the eastern conference finals. All things considered, the Bulls did very well in 2010-11. The Bulls had eight new players on the roster with only Rose, Deng, Noah and Gibson being holdovers. 2010-11 was the first year under Thibodaux’s tenure and the players should be better adjusted coming into the 2011-2012 season. Also, four of the Bulls rotational players severely regressed or had arguably the worst years in their careers. Let’s take a look:
The one thing that all had in common is that they were new to the team. With a year under the system, they should all play better next year. Derrick Rose, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik are young players and have shown the ability to improve. They should have better seasons next year. Let’s not forget that Noah and Boozer were injured for extended periods last year. As collected, expect the Bulls should be a better team in 2011-12.
The glaring hole on the team is the SG spot. Keith Bogans may not be back next year as his contract option would have to be picked up by the team. With that said, I have identified potential SG replacements for the Bulls. It is unlikely that the Bulls will trade a rotation player to acquire a shooting guard so I did not include wild imaginary trades or crazy rumors in my assessment. All of the players identified are attainable via trade or free agency. They are grouped into four categories: Best Fit, Potential Studs, Serviceable Upgrades and Unproven Talent with High Upside
Best Fits
Courtney Lee- 6’5 200, 12.63 PER, 2 Years remaining on contract at 1.2 million. Lee is a good fit with the Bulls as he is an above average defender and can shoot the three (41% last year). He has proven that he can score a little bit via mid-range. Also, Lee has been through the playoff grind as he was the starting SG on Orlando’s 2009 NBA finals team. Houston wants a big but the Bulls did not want to give up Gibson or Asik in February and they should not now. He is behind Kevin Martin and has bench competition with Terrance Williams. The Bulls should offer either of the 2011 picks (28 or 30).
Aaron Afflalo- 6’5 215, 13.61 PER, 1 Year remaining on contract at 1.9 million. Afflalo is in that he is a handles the ball better than most his size. He is can get to the basket and finish with some strength and is a decent shooter. His size also allows him to play some SF. Denver will want big if they can’t resign Hilario. Chances are they will but the big question mark is can they proceed with JR Smith as their primary SG. In order to make the deal work the Bulls will have to trade Ronnie Brewer, the Bulls #30 pick in 2011 and swap Den 2012 1st for the 2012 Bobcats pick that the Bulls own.
Shannon Brown- 6’4 210, 13.67 PER, 2 years remaining on the contract at 2.2 million (player option after next year). While a bit under-sized Shannon Brown has SG strength and weight. He also has above average speed and leaping ability. Shannon Brown may be the most attainable for several reasons. First, there are questions about whether Brown had sex with Gasol’s fiancé. Also, it is believed that Mike Brown will not run the triangle offense and of Fisher and Blake are more traditional point guards than Brown. Finally, the Cavaliers drafted Brown and Mike Brown had him buried on the bench when he was in Cleveland. C.J. Watson straight up should get this deal done. Also, Brown is a Chicago native.
Serviceable Upgrades
Anthony Parker- 6’6 210, 10.56 PER, 1 year remaining on his contract at 2.9 million. Parker, a Chicago native, fits into the Bulls defensive philosophy as he is a defensive oriented player. He does not shoot well from the floor but can score better in the mid-range than Bogans. He also shot 40% from three. Parker is only a slight upgrade from Bogans and may not fill his void as he may take some time to adjust to the system. The Bulls should not trade any assets to acquire him. Trading Bogans straight up will get the job done (the bulls would have to pick up Bogans’ option) as Parker makes more than Parker and could save the Cavs 1.3 million. This should be a last case scenario for the Bulls.
Daequan Cook- 6’5 210, 12.84 PER, Unrestricted Free Agent. Daequan Cook is caught in a number game. He is a good scorer but not a better scorer than Harden. He is a good defender but not a better defender than Sefolasha. He is a good player that got caught in the numbers game. This can benefit the Bulls as Cook is a good defender that shot 42% from 3. Also, he should be relatively cheap to sign and the Bulls would not have to give up any assets to keep him. He is an upgrade over Bogans and would split time with Korver at the SG spot.
Potential Studs
Nick Young- 6’7 210, 14.51 PER, 1 Year remaining on his contract at 2.6 million. This is as close to an uncertain as it gets as Young may not be available. The Wizards have Young bigs in Blatche and McGee that will have to be re-signed soon. Also, Wall in up for an extension in two years. Of their good young talent Young is the most expendable (since Jordan Crawford is his back-up but we’ll get to him later). He has one year left on his deal and the Wizards will not want to lose him for nothing. Rashad Lewis’ contract has hampered their cap flexibility. While Young isn’t an all-star, is a young stud. He shoots the three well (39%), can slash and score in the mid-range. He is an average defender but a huge upgrade of Bogans. He can switch on picks to guard the point and SF. It may not cost too much to pry Young from the Wizards. The Bulls (if they make a move before the draft)can trade Bogans, #28 and Charlotte’s 2012 pick to Washington for Young. They can then decline Bogans option saving them 1.3 million, have a late 2011 pick and a lottery pick from Charlotte. This will only work if they are certain that he will not re-sign with them and if Jordan Crawford is their SG of the future. Young is the only player on this list that the Bulls should consider trading Gibson or Asik for.
Marcus Thornton- 6’4 205, 16.52 PER, Unrestricted free-agent. As good as Marcus Thornton has been, he is caught in a number game. Thornton is a SG and Sac has learned that Tyreke Evans is not a PG. The issue with Sac is that their two best players play the same position. Sac experimented with Evans playing at the three and Thornton at point and neither worked very well. This is a classic example of bad management as Sac gave up Carl Landry for Thornton and, if they lose Thornton, they will receive nothing out of the transaction. If they re-sign Thornton, they will have committed a large part of their cap to two players that play the same position (as Evans is up for an extension after next season). Thornton may not be perfect for the Bulls, he is a below average defender and I doubt that he is 6’4, but he is a flat out scorer. He averaged 20 ppg as a rookie and 17 last year playing for two teams. His per 36 minutes scoring average is over 20. He can penetrate, shoot the three and score in the midrange. The Bulls may not have enough money under the cap to sign him to a large enough offer sheet but the reluctance in around the CBA may make him available (especially if the Bulls decline Bogans’ option). Bogans scoring is absolutely perfect for the Bulls and he is the only player on the list that has a PER over 15. His 16.5 PER is consistent with a third option on a championship team and on the Bulls he’d be the fourth option. To make Thornton a Bull, they would have to have Sac re-sign him to a deal similar to Ronnie Brewer’s and trade him to Sac for Thornton (as the Kings don’t have a serviceable SF).
Unproven Young Player with High Upside
Jordan Crawford- 6’4 195, 11.89 PER, 4 years remaining starting at 1.1 million. Jordan Crawford is an interesting prospect as he has proven relatively quickly that he can score well in this league. The problem with Crawford is that he has a bad shot selection. This is consistent with rookies, especially rookies that saw significantly playing time. With the Bulls and in a limited role he should have a better shot selection. Crawford has not given any indication that he is a great defender yet it is not clear that he is a bad defender. His scoring potential is his best quality. The conundrum with the Wizards is that Crawford is not effective in limited minutes (as seen when he was a member of the Atlanta Hawks) but keeping Nick Young would severely limit his minutes. The Bulls can have Crawford if they trade Bogans and #28 pick. Washington will get some veteran leadership and a player that fits their rotation and the Bulls will get a legit scoring prospect at SG. This would be a plus for the Bulls as Crawford would certainly be a top 7 pick in this draft.
Jodie Meeks- 6’4 208, 12.59 PER, 2 years remaining at 763K. Meeks has proven to be a solid scorer on a team that has a lot of competition. He was able to average 10 ppg while competing with Igoudala, Lou Williams and Evan Turner as 2G. If the Sixers trade Igoudala then Meeks will not be available. If they keep Igoudala then Meeks can be available for a low price. Meeks has an above average handle, shoots well in the mid-range and off screens. He shoots very well from three (40% in the regular season and 44% in the playoffs). If Igoudala is not traded by the beginning of the draft, Meeks can be had for the #30 pick. This is a very real possibility as Philly is looking to shake things up.
Jermaine Taylor- 6’4 210, 12.23 PER, Unrestricted Free Agent. Taylor is the most interesting player on this list. Taylor has elite NBA speed, strength and leaping ability. He is a good ball handler and is a flat out a superb NBA athlete. Taylor’s problem is that he has not had an opportunity to get many minutes. Last year, when playing more than 16 minutes Taylor averaged 10.7 ppg. Taylor is very interesting as he is very similar to a young Monta Ellis, a player that the Bulls are interested in, the only difference is that, at 6’4 210, Taylor has better size than Ellis and is more suitable to play the SG as opposed to Ellis. Taylor’s Per 36 minute numbers were 16.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg and 2.4 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.4 bpg. M. Ellis’ were 21.5 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 5.0 apg, 1.9 spg, 0.3 bpg. While Ellis has considerably better numbers, he is owed 38 million over the next three years while Taylor can get good numbers, offer better size and a better rotational fit for under 4 million for the next three years. The Bulls can sign him the moment that the CBA is signed and do it for relatively peanuts. They would not have to give up any assets either.
Long-shots- R. Hamilton and B. Roy can be had if the new CBA allows for an amnesty release. Also, the Bulls worked out T. McGrady but signed Bogans instead. After getting to see McGrady for a year in Det, the Bulls may revisit T-Mac.
Arron Afflalo
.498 .423 .847 3.9 2.6 0.5 0.5 13.4
Shannon Brown
.425 .349 .911 3.6 2.2 1.5 0.4 16.3
Daequan Cook
.436 .422 .800 4.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 14.4
Courtney Lee
.439 .408 .792 1.1 3.3 4.4 2.1 14.0
Marcus Thornton
.434 .367 .788 5.2 2.7 1.3 0.2 18.9
Nick Young
.441 .387 .816 3.1 1.3 0.8 0.3 19.7
Jordan Crawford
.384 .258 .869 3.7 4.1 1.4 0.1 17.2
Jodie Meeks
.425 .397 .894 3.0 1.4 1.1 0.1 13.5
Anthony Parker
.399 .379 .779 0.6 3.2 3.8 3.8 10.3
Jermaine Taylor
.480 .311 .750 4.6 2.4 1.0 0.4 16.6
- Per 36 minutes and with the exception of his 2nd season, Boozer had the worse year of his career in which he played at least 59 games
- Per 36 minutes and with the exception of his rookie year, Kyle Korver had the worst year of his career in which he has played at least 75 games
- Per 36 minutes, Ronnie Brewer had his worst statistical year
- Per 36 minutes and with the exception of his rookie year, CJ Watson had his worst statistical year
The one thing that all had in common is that they were new to the team. With a year under the system, they should all play better next year. Derrick Rose, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik are young players and have shown the ability to improve. They should have better seasons next year. Let’s not forget that Noah and Boozer were injured for extended periods last year. As collected, expect the Bulls should be a better team in 2011-12.
The glaring hole on the team is the SG spot. Keith Bogans may not be back next year as his contract option would have to be picked up by the team. With that said, I have identified potential SG replacements for the Bulls. It is unlikely that the Bulls will trade a rotation player to acquire a shooting guard so I did not include wild imaginary trades or crazy rumors in my assessment. All of the players identified are attainable via trade or free agency. They are grouped into four categories: Best Fit, Potential Studs, Serviceable Upgrades and Unproven Talent with High Upside
Best Fits
Courtney Lee- 6’5 200, 12.63 PER, 2 Years remaining on contract at 1.2 million. Lee is a good fit with the Bulls as he is an above average defender and can shoot the three (41% last year). He has proven that he can score a little bit via mid-range. Also, Lee has been through the playoff grind as he was the starting SG on Orlando’s 2009 NBA finals team. Houston wants a big but the Bulls did not want to give up Gibson or Asik in February and they should not now. He is behind Kevin Martin and has bench competition with Terrance Williams. The Bulls should offer either of the 2011 picks (28 or 30).
Aaron Afflalo- 6’5 215, 13.61 PER, 1 Year remaining on contract at 1.9 million. Afflalo is in that he is a handles the ball better than most his size. He is can get to the basket and finish with some strength and is a decent shooter. His size also allows him to play some SF. Denver will want big if they can’t resign Hilario. Chances are they will but the big question mark is can they proceed with JR Smith as their primary SG. In order to make the deal work the Bulls will have to trade Ronnie Brewer, the Bulls #30 pick in 2011 and swap Den 2012 1st for the 2012 Bobcats pick that the Bulls own.
Shannon Brown- 6’4 210, 13.67 PER, 2 years remaining on the contract at 2.2 million (player option after next year). While a bit under-sized Shannon Brown has SG strength and weight. He also has above average speed and leaping ability. Shannon Brown may be the most attainable for several reasons. First, there are questions about whether Brown had sex with Gasol’s fiancé. Also, it is believed that Mike Brown will not run the triangle offense and of Fisher and Blake are more traditional point guards than Brown. Finally, the Cavaliers drafted Brown and Mike Brown had him buried on the bench when he was in Cleveland. C.J. Watson straight up should get this deal done. Also, Brown is a Chicago native.
Serviceable Upgrades
Anthony Parker- 6’6 210, 10.56 PER, 1 year remaining on his contract at 2.9 million. Parker, a Chicago native, fits into the Bulls defensive philosophy as he is a defensive oriented player. He does not shoot well from the floor but can score better in the mid-range than Bogans. He also shot 40% from three. Parker is only a slight upgrade from Bogans and may not fill his void as he may take some time to adjust to the system. The Bulls should not trade any assets to acquire him. Trading Bogans straight up will get the job done (the bulls would have to pick up Bogans’ option) as Parker makes more than Parker and could save the Cavs 1.3 million. This should be a last case scenario for the Bulls.
Daequan Cook- 6’5 210, 12.84 PER, Unrestricted Free Agent. Daequan Cook is caught in a number game. He is a good scorer but not a better scorer than Harden. He is a good defender but not a better defender than Sefolasha. He is a good player that got caught in the numbers game. This can benefit the Bulls as Cook is a good defender that shot 42% from 3. Also, he should be relatively cheap to sign and the Bulls would not have to give up any assets to keep him. He is an upgrade over Bogans and would split time with Korver at the SG spot.
Potential Studs
Nick Young- 6’7 210, 14.51 PER, 1 Year remaining on his contract at 2.6 million. This is as close to an uncertain as it gets as Young may not be available. The Wizards have Young bigs in Blatche and McGee that will have to be re-signed soon. Also, Wall in up for an extension in two years. Of their good young talent Young is the most expendable (since Jordan Crawford is his back-up but we’ll get to him later). He has one year left on his deal and the Wizards will not want to lose him for nothing. Rashad Lewis’ contract has hampered their cap flexibility. While Young isn’t an all-star, is a young stud. He shoots the three well (39%), can slash and score in the mid-range. He is an average defender but a huge upgrade of Bogans. He can switch on picks to guard the point and SF. It may not cost too much to pry Young from the Wizards. The Bulls (if they make a move before the draft)can trade Bogans, #28 and Charlotte’s 2012 pick to Washington for Young. They can then decline Bogans option saving them 1.3 million, have a late 2011 pick and a lottery pick from Charlotte. This will only work if they are certain that he will not re-sign with them and if Jordan Crawford is their SG of the future. Young is the only player on this list that the Bulls should consider trading Gibson or Asik for.
Marcus Thornton- 6’4 205, 16.52 PER, Unrestricted free-agent. As good as Marcus Thornton has been, he is caught in a number game. Thornton is a SG and Sac has learned that Tyreke Evans is not a PG. The issue with Sac is that their two best players play the same position. Sac experimented with Evans playing at the three and Thornton at point and neither worked very well. This is a classic example of bad management as Sac gave up Carl Landry for Thornton and, if they lose Thornton, they will receive nothing out of the transaction. If they re-sign Thornton, they will have committed a large part of their cap to two players that play the same position (as Evans is up for an extension after next season). Thornton may not be perfect for the Bulls, he is a below average defender and I doubt that he is 6’4, but he is a flat out scorer. He averaged 20 ppg as a rookie and 17 last year playing for two teams. His per 36 minutes scoring average is over 20. He can penetrate, shoot the three and score in the midrange. The Bulls may not have enough money under the cap to sign him to a large enough offer sheet but the reluctance in around the CBA may make him available (especially if the Bulls decline Bogans’ option). Bogans scoring is absolutely perfect for the Bulls and he is the only player on the list that has a PER over 15. His 16.5 PER is consistent with a third option on a championship team and on the Bulls he’d be the fourth option. To make Thornton a Bull, they would have to have Sac re-sign him to a deal similar to Ronnie Brewer’s and trade him to Sac for Thornton (as the Kings don’t have a serviceable SF).
Unproven Young Player with High Upside
Jordan Crawford- 6’4 195, 11.89 PER, 4 years remaining starting at 1.1 million. Jordan Crawford is an interesting prospect as he has proven relatively quickly that he can score well in this league. The problem with Crawford is that he has a bad shot selection. This is consistent with rookies, especially rookies that saw significantly playing time. With the Bulls and in a limited role he should have a better shot selection. Crawford has not given any indication that he is a great defender yet it is not clear that he is a bad defender. His scoring potential is his best quality. The conundrum with the Wizards is that Crawford is not effective in limited minutes (as seen when he was a member of the Atlanta Hawks) but keeping Nick Young would severely limit his minutes. The Bulls can have Crawford if they trade Bogans and #28 pick. Washington will get some veteran leadership and a player that fits their rotation and the Bulls will get a legit scoring prospect at SG. This would be a plus for the Bulls as Crawford would certainly be a top 7 pick in this draft.
Jodie Meeks- 6’4 208, 12.59 PER, 2 years remaining at 763K. Meeks has proven to be a solid scorer on a team that has a lot of competition. He was able to average 10 ppg while competing with Igoudala, Lou Williams and Evan Turner as 2G. If the Sixers trade Igoudala then Meeks will not be available. If they keep Igoudala then Meeks can be available for a low price. Meeks has an above average handle, shoots well in the mid-range and off screens. He shoots very well from three (40% in the regular season and 44% in the playoffs). If Igoudala is not traded by the beginning of the draft, Meeks can be had for the #30 pick. This is a very real possibility as Philly is looking to shake things up.
Jermaine Taylor- 6’4 210, 12.23 PER, Unrestricted Free Agent. Taylor is the most interesting player on this list. Taylor has elite NBA speed, strength and leaping ability. He is a good ball handler and is a flat out a superb NBA athlete. Taylor’s problem is that he has not had an opportunity to get many minutes. Last year, when playing more than 16 minutes Taylor averaged 10.7 ppg. Taylor is very interesting as he is very similar to a young Monta Ellis, a player that the Bulls are interested in, the only difference is that, at 6’4 210, Taylor has better size than Ellis and is more suitable to play the SG as opposed to Ellis. Taylor’s Per 36 minute numbers were 16.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg and 2.4 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.4 bpg. M. Ellis’ were 21.5 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 5.0 apg, 1.9 spg, 0.3 bpg. While Ellis has considerably better numbers, he is owed 38 million over the next three years while Taylor can get good numbers, offer better size and a better rotational fit for under 4 million for the next three years. The Bulls can sign him the moment that the CBA is signed and do it for relatively peanuts. They would not have to give up any assets either.
Long-shots- R. Hamilton and B. Roy can be had if the new CBA allows for an amnesty release. Also, the Bulls worked out T. McGrady but signed Bogans instead. After getting to see McGrady for a year in Det, the Bulls may revisit T-Mac.
Per 36 Minute Numbers for all the Candidates
FG% 3% FT% R A S B PtsArron Afflalo
.498 .423 .847 3.9 2.6 0.5 0.5 13.4
Shannon Brown
.425 .349 .911 3.6 2.2 1.5 0.4 16.3
Daequan Cook
.436 .422 .800 4.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 14.4
Courtney Lee
.439 .408 .792 1.1 3.3 4.4 2.1 14.0
Marcus Thornton
.434 .367 .788 5.2 2.7 1.3 0.2 18.9
Nick Young
.441 .387 .816 3.1 1.3 0.8 0.3 19.7
Jordan Crawford
.384 .258 .869 3.7 4.1 1.4 0.1 17.2
Jodie Meeks
.425 .397 .894 3.0 1.4 1.1 0.1 13.5
Anthony Parker
.399 .379 .779 0.6 3.2 3.8 3.8 10.3
Jermaine Taylor
.480 .311 .750 4.6 2.4 1.0 0.4 16.6
b/c he is rangy and athletic,once again nice drop op
the offer is withdrawn.
