BREAKING: INVASION HAS BEGUN..... Putin's "3-day war"... NOW... 1 YEAR 338 DAYS ...WAGNER HEAD SAYS GROUP STANDING DOWN AFTER CLAIMS OF DEAL
- Thread starter lightbright
- Start date
Man I had to google that joint. I'm more of a fly guy and a space guy myselfDon't know much about the mechanized artillery world. lol
One thing about the armed service is that they are organized. Love that shit.
How is this possible when Russia has destroyed or captured all of the Ukrainian artillery?
Also notice that the claims come with actual confirmation.Look at the losses just in the last week
https://topcargo200.com
Can't stop won't stop HIMARS rockets dropping baby. They get down baby, they get dooooooooooooown 
Yep this is not looking good for Trudeau, people are still mad about the vaccine mandate, if you include the inflation, the housing crisis (especially in Ontario and BC) also the mess at airports and passport delay, mister Trudeau is in trouble. Scholtz will probably suffer if Putin stop the gas, and Macron government already lost the majority in last parliamentary electionsUmmmmm let’s see
oh boy next to Johnson…. Probably worried
HIMARS was the undercard, the main event is here now.
M270 is essentially 2x HIMARS and more are on the way.
All the way until the actual delivery of HIMARS, Russians claimed that the S-400 could intercept. This was going to be their opportunity to showcase its effectiveness to potential buyers all over the world. Instead...
Of course, russia will do russian things when confronted with military setbacks; They will target civilians as is their MO
M270 is essentially 2x HIMARS and more are on the way.
All the way until the actual delivery of HIMARS, Russians claimed that the S-400 could intercept. This was going to be their opportunity to showcase its effectiveness to potential buyers all over the world. Instead...
Of course, russia will do russian things when confronted with military setbacks; They will target civilians as is their MO
HIMARS was the undercard, the main event is here now.
M270 is essentially 2x HIMARS and more are on the way.
All the way until the actual delivery of HIMARS, Russians claimed that the S-400 could intercept. This was going to be their opportunity to showcase its effectiveness to potential buyers all over the world. Instead...
Of course, russia will do russian things when confronted with military setbacks; They will target civilians as is their MO
How long can UK let these civilian attacks go unanswered? Perhaps now they will strike back into the RU motherland.
How long can UK let these civilian attacks go unanswered? Perhaps now they will strike back into the RU motherland.
More from today
:If you read the quotes from Reznikov, it seems there is still a fear of the Ukrainians going rouge to a certain degree and targeting Russian territory. That said, there are rumors of 300KM rounds coming as well as the announcement that they will start training on Western aircraft:
Reznikov waiting for Western-supplied 300km-range HIMARS
YEVHEN KIZILOV – FRIDAY, 15 JULY 2022, 12:56
www.pravda.com.ua
Zelenskyy's Office confirms US plans to train Ukrainian fighter pilots on F-15, F-16 fighter jets
The United States plans to train Ukrainian fighter pilots on the F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, Andriy Yermak, head of the President's Office, said in a Telegram messenger post on July 15.
My personal theory is that Russia is trying to instigate a reaction from Ukraine in order to give NATO countries pause about providing additional weapons. It could also just be them sticking to their "doctrine", if you can call it that, as Russia targeted civilians/destroyed cities in Syria and Chechnya too. All of that said, look at this poll from Germany which is widely accepted to be the "weak" link in Western support along with Italy.
This is before today's attacks. The question asked was: Should we continue to support Ukraine despite high energy prices?
Germany has been criticized heavily and yet 70% of the public there is in favor of continuing support despite the high energy prices.
A lot of the russian bloggers etc., even the ultra nationalists etc., are way more sober than they were even just a few weeks back and certainly 100X more sober than russophile twitter has ever been. This is on the need for mobilization, the alleged attempts by the Kremlin to negotiate for peace early on and, finally, the need for Russia to treat Ukraine like Syria, Chechnya etc.
I believe we are now approaching the third, tipping point of this war.
The first came on the second or third day after 24 February when it became clear that the quick defeat of Ukraine in the “special operation” framework has failed.
I wrote back then, on 26 February, that it would no longer be possible to win the war in the “sparing” mode (if such word is applicable here at all). The fights slowly moved to urban development. Do you remember what Grozny and Aleppo looked like? And that war was not with the regular army but with groups of militants. Can you imagine if even one tenth of what happened there would repeat in Kharkiv and Mariupol?
Alas, my prediction came true, although some were still dreaming of a quick capture of Kyiv back in those days.
The second tipping point occurred after the failure of negotiations in Istanbul at the end of March. Then, Kremlin was ready to jump off by returning Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhye (the only territories where the “special operation” went according to a plan, meaning quickly and relatively bloodless) in exchange for recognition of the L/DPR and Crimea. Not even recognition, but agreement by Ukraine to temporarily abandon attempts to return them, and also reduce their army size and stop rushing into NATO. Quite symbolic concessions in general.
Since the Russian leadership was seriously counting on this bargaining, it took so long to create the military-civilian administrations in the South of Ukraine, suspending the situation in the air in every possible way. Sometimes it went as far as imposing restrictions on removing Ukrainian flags. Initially, Kremlin as it appears didn’t have plans to bite off anything from Ukraine except for the Donbas. Putin, through scare tactics wanted to simply replace the government in Kyiv to a “friendly” one and sign some papers with it. But when the “nazis and drug addicts” could not be removed, Kremlin decided to sign papers with them. But they suddenly refused to do so.
“Oh, you” – said Kremlin and decided to gnaw into Ukraine properly by concentrating their modest forces in the Donbas direction. Likely, sometime by September Putin wanted to reach borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts without hurrying or overexerting himself, to call it a victory and at the same time grab everything he managed to saw off from Ukraine. Next, along the frontline the iron curtain descends, Ukraine and the West, tired of war, stop the active hostilities, and de-facto without reaching any formal agreements the situation freezes for many years like it was in the case of South Korea and North Korea.
And back in March this plan appeared quite realistic. But now it is clear that the pace of the offensive in the Donbas turned out slower than expected, meanwhile Ukraine, after receiving new weapons and relying on Western intelligence began methodically destroying the Russian military infrastructure in the deep rears of the Donbas, and even in the border areas of Russia. So, they are “demilitarising” us, and not the other way around. And it became clear, that even if at the cost of incredible efforts the frontline is pushed another few dozen kilometers, this will not change anything – the high-precision missiles from the other side will continue flying where necessary. In addition, Ukraine is now openly saying about preparation for a large-scale counter-offensive in the South. To repel it, the already limited forces will have to be transferred away from the Donbas.
And now the third tipping point is looming. To change the situation in Russia’s favour, it is necessary to move away from the “special operation” which is carried out by the peacetime army (“we haven’t even started anything seriously”) to a total war. This means mobilisation and war time economy mode. Otherwise, you see, many Russians still don’t notice what is happening, and as Putin said they roam around exhibitions while others are sitting in the trenches. I think that if on 15 July the martial law is not imposed, this will happen sooner or later anyway. That’s the logic of things. We are all being slowly sucked into this huge meatgrinder – first the edge of our clothes got stuck, and then boom and echelons of mobilised men are already going to the frontline from across the country.
This is on the need for mobilization, the alleged attempts by the Kremlin to negotiate for peace early on and, finally, the need for Russia to treat Ukraine like Syria, Chechnya etc.I believe we are now approaching the third, tipping point of this war.
The first came on the second or third day after 24 February when it became clear that the quick defeat of Ukraine in the “special operation” framework has failed.
I wrote back then, on 26 February, that it would no longer be possible to win the war in the “sparing” mode (if such word is applicable here at all). The fights slowly moved to urban development. Do you remember what Grozny and Aleppo looked like? And that war was not with the regular army but with groups of militants. Can you imagine if even one tenth of what happened there would repeat in Kharkiv and Mariupol?
Alas, my prediction came true, although some were still dreaming of a quick capture of Kyiv back in those days.
The second tipping point occurred after the failure of negotiations in Istanbul at the end of March. Then, Kremlin was ready to jump off by returning Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhye (the only territories where the “special operation” went according to a plan, meaning quickly and relatively bloodless) in exchange for recognition of the L/DPR and Crimea. Not even recognition, but agreement by Ukraine to temporarily abandon attempts to return them, and also reduce their army size and stop rushing into NATO. Quite symbolic concessions in general.
Since the Russian leadership was seriously counting on this bargaining, it took so long to create the military-civilian administrations in the South of Ukraine, suspending the situation in the air in every possible way. Sometimes it went as far as imposing restrictions on removing Ukrainian flags. Initially, Kremlin as it appears didn’t have plans to bite off anything from Ukraine except for the Donbas. Putin, through scare tactics wanted to simply replace the government in Kyiv to a “friendly” one and sign some papers with it. But when the “nazis and drug addicts” could not be removed, Kremlin decided to sign papers with them. But they suddenly refused to do so.
“Oh, you” – said Kremlin and decided to gnaw into Ukraine properly by concentrating their modest forces in the Donbas direction. Likely, sometime by September Putin wanted to reach borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts without hurrying or overexerting himself, to call it a victory and at the same time grab everything he managed to saw off from Ukraine. Next, along the frontline the iron curtain descends, Ukraine and the West, tired of war, stop the active hostilities, and de-facto without reaching any formal agreements the situation freezes for many years like it was in the case of South Korea and North Korea.
And back in March this plan appeared quite realistic. But now it is clear that the pace of the offensive in the Donbas turned out slower than expected, meanwhile Ukraine, after receiving new weapons and relying on Western intelligence began methodically destroying the Russian military infrastructure in the deep rears of the Donbas, and even in the border areas of Russia. So, they are “demilitarising” us, and not the other way around. And it became clear, that even if at the cost of incredible efforts the frontline is pushed another few dozen kilometers, this will not change anything – the high-precision missiles from the other side will continue flying where necessary. In addition, Ukraine is now openly saying about preparation for a large-scale counter-offensive in the South. To repel it, the already limited forces will have to be transferred away from the Donbas.
And now the third tipping point is looming. To change the situation in Russia’s favour, it is necessary to move away from the “special operation” which is carried out by the peacetime army (“we haven’t even started anything seriously”) to a total war. This means mobilisation and war time economy mode. Otherwise, you see, many Russians still don’t notice what is happening, and as Putin said they roam around exhibitions while others are sitting in the trenches. I think that if on 15 July the martial law is not imposed, this will happen sooner or later anyway. That’s the logic of things. We are all being slowly sucked into this huge meatgrinder – first the edge of our clothes got stuck, and then boom and echelons of mobilised men are already going to the frontline from across the country.
Why hasn’t the Russian economy tanked yet? Putin has been preparing for this moment for years
When Russia invaded Ukraine, countries around the world condemned the move, and abruptly cut economic, business and diplomatic ties.
Over 1,000 companies—from American to European and Japanese firms—abandoned their business operations in Russia. Western nations booted Russia from SWIFT—the international payments system that moves money around the world—and froze Russia’s central bank assets, barring it from accessing its $630 billion foreign reserve stash.
Economists and world leaders believed that combined, the economic impact on the country relegate it to an economic pariah, ensure losses in the billions and perhaps even lead to a wholesale collapse of the country's financial system.
But that’s not quite how it worked out.
Across Russia, signs have emerged that the country is adapting to global economic isolation better than most people anticipated.
Russian businessmen have gobbled up western companies’ operations, like Siberian billionaire Alexander Govor’s purchase of McDonald’s 850 outlets across the country. Russian property developers, like MR Group are opening new shopping malls—simply sans western brands like H&M, Nike and Starbucks.
And despite becoming the world's most sanctioned nation in the world, Russia’s economy hasn't tanked. Russian President Vladimir Putin had began preparing the country years ago to endure western financial pressure by shoring up its currency reserves and befriending China. And in a stroke of luck, the Kremlin’s coffers are bursting because oil prices have skyrocketed, stabilizing the ruble.
The economy is staying afloat for now. But as the war drags on, cracks are beginning to show as Russia stares down its worst recession in 30 years, faces a looming EU oil embargo and grapples with a growing number of citizens pushed into poverty.
After Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014, Putin began preparing the country's economy to endure western sanctions. He stockpiled foreign currencies, reduced Russia's dollar dependency and pivoted to a stronger partnership with China.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February of this year, it did so with large currency reserves and minimal public debt.
In the weeks following the invasion, western nations pummelled Russia with harsh, unprecedented sanctions, restricting Russia’s access to the global financial system. In response, Russia barred citizens from transferring money to bank accounts abroad to prevent capital outflow, while the central bank imposed a 20% emergency interest rate hike as the ruble tumbled to record lows. Those “timely and strong” moves allowed the country to stave off a "full scale financial crisis," Laura Solanko, senior advisor at The Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies in Transition (BOFIT), an organization that researches emerging economies, told Fortune.
Such measures “would have been very difficult to implement in a democracy, but [feasible] in an autocracy [where] state-owned companies play a larger role,” she says.
The widespread notion that the Russian economy would collapse from sanctions in a few short months was "as unrealistic as Russia's own blitzkrieg plan to conquer Ukraine" in mere days, because of the government’s preparations to ensure a financially stable economy, Russian political scientist Ilya Matveev told Fortune.
But Russia hasn’t just played a good game of economic defense. Its invasion of Ukraine destabilized the global oil market, raising prices, which provided it with an incredible source of funding.
Since Feb. 24, petrodollars from energy sales have filled the Kremlin’s coffers and offered it an economic lifeline.
In the first 100 days of the war, Russia earned a record $94 billion from fossil fuel sales, despite selling its crude at a 30% discount and exporting lower volumes, according to analysis from Switzerland-based Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). In May alone, Russia raked in $20 billion from energy sales, alone, up 11% from April.
Russia's energy revenue is "unprecedented, because prices are unprecedented," said CREA analyst Lauri Myllyvirta. From January to May this year, the country's energy revenue grew 50%, says the International Energy Agency (IEA). Russia's current account surplus—which measures a country’s exports against its imports—reached nearly $139 billion in the first six months of 2022, helped by its profits from energy and commodity exports, coupled with a collapse in imports due to sanctions.
Those petrodollars also powered the ruble's remarkable turnaround. Russia's currency is the best-performing currency in the world this year. The ruble’s value plunged to less than one cent in March. But since January, it has surged 45% against the dollar. As of July 12, one U.S. dollar is worth 58.40 rubles. The ruble's rally, in turn, has helped tame Russian inflation to its lowest level since February. In June, Russia's consumer prices grew 15.9% year over year, compared to 17.1% in May and 17.8% in April, according to Russian government data.
The "bottom line" is that Russia's oil and gas revenues haven't been dented at all, allowing the government to keep funding the war and providing financial support for citizens, Peter Rutland, a Russia-focused professor of government at Wesleyan University, told Fortune.
“In the short run, the deck is stacked in favor of Russia,” he says.
Turbulence ahead
So far, Russia has managed to soften the blow to its economy and for its citizens. But its strong policy moves and growing oil revenues mask the ominous economic future that's brewing just below the surface.
The ruble's stunning turnaround is an artificial indicator that Russia's economy is faring well, Sergei Guriev, scientific director of Sciences Po's economics program and a research fellow at London-based think tank the Center for Economic Policy Research, told Fortune. Normally, a rising currency reflects the strengthened competitiveness of a country's exports. But the main driver of the ruble's strength is the collapse of Russian imports, which have plunged to 20-year lows, and drastically reduced its demand for dollars, Guriev says. The strong ruble doesn't reflect Russia's economic strength, but is a "symptom of something that's very bad" for the nation, he says.
And behind the façade of a stabilizing economy, ordinary Russians are bearing the brunt of the sanctions. Russians’ real wages are expected to drop almost 6% this year, and their real disposable incomes set for a 7.5% decline, according to Russian bank VEB. Putin has authorized 10% hikes for pension incomes and minimum wages that went into effect last month. But even these boosts won’t stop Russians’ real wages, incomes and pensions from deteriorating, VEB said.
Although inflation is currently rising less rapidly than it was, double-digit inflation is set to continue in a country where 21 million people—nearly 15% of the national population—live below the poverty line, a number that has surged since the war began.
"Already-poor [Russians] will get poorer," Matveev says. Andrei Illarionov, a former Putin aide, predicts that the number of Russians living in poverty will likely double, or even triple, as the war progresses, he told the BBC.
And four months into the war, Russian industries are suffering from a severe tech supply crunch.
Russia has replaced western goods with smartphones from China, refrigerators from Uzbekistan and 5G equipment from Israel and India since the war started. Still, there are big gaps that not even China—Russia's largest trading partner—will be able to fill.
Sanctions have restricted western companies from supplying the country with chips, electrical equipment and other critical hardware needed to produce everything from kitchen appliances, cars, computers, data servers and military equipment. Entire supply routes for "[data] servers to computers to iPhones—everything—is gone," one western chip executive told the FT.
China holds only 4% of the global semiconductor share and can't make up the stymied supply from the world's biggest chipmakers in the U.S. and Taiwan, Guriev says. Chinese firms are also holding back over concerns of triggering secondary sanctions from the west. The collapse of high-tech imports means that the Russian economy will undergo a "regressive transformation," Matveev says. He notes that while the world progresses, Russia will be relegated to trying to reach its pre-war economic state, thus its technological and economic gap with the rest of the globe will widen over time.
Russia “hasn’t seen the worst yet,” even as its economy has undergone some initial shocks, Matveev says. “Unemployment will [increase] and shortages [of goods and parts] and price increases will continue,” he says.
Other experts agree. The EU's sixth sanctions package against Russia, which will ban Russian seaborne crude by December and petroleum products by next February—90% of the bloc's Russian oil imports—will be a major blow to the Kremlin if it’s implemented properly. The bloc accounted for 61% of Russia's fossil fuel revenues from January to May this year. If the embargo is seriously enforced, Putin "won't have enough money to recruit soldiers," let alone prop up its citizens and industries, Guriev says.
Russia's central bank expects an 8 to 10% gross domestic product (GDP) decline this year, compared to a pre-war growth forecast of 2%. That figure is a "substantial decline largely caused by western sanctions," Solanko says.
Russia’s economic squeeze will come in the long run as the country deindustrializes, faces growing unemployment and continued stagflation and a run on goods, Rutland says.
In short, Russia is staring down its worst recession in 30 years, Guriev says.
Russia's economic crises in 2009, 2014 and 2020 involved steep drops and fast recoveries. But experts agree that Russia won't experience a speedy economic reboot his time around. Russia is facing a future of stagnation for years, perhaps even decades, Matveev says.
As Solanko notes, Russia is "isolating itself and decoupling from the global economy. This time, the fast recovery won’t come.”
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
When Russia invaded Ukraine, countries around the world condemned the move, and abruptly cut economic, business and diplomatic ties.
Over 1,000 companies—from American to European and Japanese firms—abandoned their business operations in Russia. Western nations booted Russia from SWIFT—the international payments system that moves money around the world—and froze Russia’s central bank assets, barring it from accessing its $630 billion foreign reserve stash.
Economists and world leaders believed that combined, the economic impact on the country relegate it to an economic pariah, ensure losses in the billions and perhaps even lead to a wholesale collapse of the country's financial system.
But that’s not quite how it worked out.
Across Russia, signs have emerged that the country is adapting to global economic isolation better than most people anticipated.
Russian businessmen have gobbled up western companies’ operations, like Siberian billionaire Alexander Govor’s purchase of McDonald’s 850 outlets across the country. Russian property developers, like MR Group are opening new shopping malls—simply sans western brands like H&M, Nike and Starbucks.
And despite becoming the world's most sanctioned nation in the world, Russia’s economy hasn't tanked. Russian President Vladimir Putin had began preparing the country years ago to endure western financial pressure by shoring up its currency reserves and befriending China. And in a stroke of luck, the Kremlin’s coffers are bursting because oil prices have skyrocketed, stabilizing the ruble.
The economy is staying afloat for now. But as the war drags on, cracks are beginning to show as Russia stares down its worst recession in 30 years, faces a looming EU oil embargo and grapples with a growing number of citizens pushed into poverty.
After Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014, Putin began preparing the country's economy to endure western sanctions. He stockpiled foreign currencies, reduced Russia's dollar dependency and pivoted to a stronger partnership with China.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February of this year, it did so with large currency reserves and minimal public debt.
In the weeks following the invasion, western nations pummelled Russia with harsh, unprecedented sanctions, restricting Russia’s access to the global financial system. In response, Russia barred citizens from transferring money to bank accounts abroad to prevent capital outflow, while the central bank imposed a 20% emergency interest rate hike as the ruble tumbled to record lows. Those “timely and strong” moves allowed the country to stave off a "full scale financial crisis," Laura Solanko, senior advisor at The Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies in Transition (BOFIT), an organization that researches emerging economies, told Fortune.
Such measures “would have been very difficult to implement in a democracy, but [feasible] in an autocracy [where] state-owned companies play a larger role,” she says.
The widespread notion that the Russian economy would collapse from sanctions in a few short months was "as unrealistic as Russia's own blitzkrieg plan to conquer Ukraine" in mere days, because of the government’s preparations to ensure a financially stable economy, Russian political scientist Ilya Matveev told Fortune.
But Russia hasn’t just played a good game of economic defense. Its invasion of Ukraine destabilized the global oil market, raising prices, which provided it with an incredible source of funding.
Since Feb. 24, petrodollars from energy sales have filled the Kremlin’s coffers and offered it an economic lifeline.
In the first 100 days of the war, Russia earned a record $94 billion from fossil fuel sales, despite selling its crude at a 30% discount and exporting lower volumes, according to analysis from Switzerland-based Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). In May alone, Russia raked in $20 billion from energy sales, alone, up 11% from April.
Russia's energy revenue is "unprecedented, because prices are unprecedented," said CREA analyst Lauri Myllyvirta. From January to May this year, the country's energy revenue grew 50%, says the International Energy Agency (IEA). Russia's current account surplus—which measures a country’s exports against its imports—reached nearly $139 billion in the first six months of 2022, helped by its profits from energy and commodity exports, coupled with a collapse in imports due to sanctions.
Those petrodollars also powered the ruble's remarkable turnaround. Russia's currency is the best-performing currency in the world this year. The ruble’s value plunged to less than one cent in March. But since January, it has surged 45% against the dollar. As of July 12, one U.S. dollar is worth 58.40 rubles. The ruble's rally, in turn, has helped tame Russian inflation to its lowest level since February. In June, Russia's consumer prices grew 15.9% year over year, compared to 17.1% in May and 17.8% in April, according to Russian government data.
The "bottom line" is that Russia's oil and gas revenues haven't been dented at all, allowing the government to keep funding the war and providing financial support for citizens, Peter Rutland, a Russia-focused professor of government at Wesleyan University, told Fortune.
“In the short run, the deck is stacked in favor of Russia,” he says.
Turbulence ahead
So far, Russia has managed to soften the blow to its economy and for its citizens. But its strong policy moves and growing oil revenues mask the ominous economic future that's brewing just below the surface.
The ruble's stunning turnaround is an artificial indicator that Russia's economy is faring well, Sergei Guriev, scientific director of Sciences Po's economics program and a research fellow at London-based think tank the Center for Economic Policy Research, told Fortune. Normally, a rising currency reflects the strengthened competitiveness of a country's exports. But the main driver of the ruble's strength is the collapse of Russian imports, which have plunged to 20-year lows, and drastically reduced its demand for dollars, Guriev says. The strong ruble doesn't reflect Russia's economic strength, but is a "symptom of something that's very bad" for the nation, he says.
And behind the façade of a stabilizing economy, ordinary Russians are bearing the brunt of the sanctions. Russians’ real wages are expected to drop almost 6% this year, and their real disposable incomes set for a 7.5% decline, according to Russian bank VEB. Putin has authorized 10% hikes for pension incomes and minimum wages that went into effect last month. But even these boosts won’t stop Russians’ real wages, incomes and pensions from deteriorating, VEB said.
Although inflation is currently rising less rapidly than it was, double-digit inflation is set to continue in a country where 21 million people—nearly 15% of the national population—live below the poverty line, a number that has surged since the war began.
"Already-poor [Russians] will get poorer," Matveev says. Andrei Illarionov, a former Putin aide, predicts that the number of Russians living in poverty will likely double, or even triple, as the war progresses, he told the BBC.
And four months into the war, Russian industries are suffering from a severe tech supply crunch.
Russia has replaced western goods with smartphones from China, refrigerators from Uzbekistan and 5G equipment from Israel and India since the war started. Still, there are big gaps that not even China—Russia's largest trading partner—will be able to fill.
Sanctions have restricted western companies from supplying the country with chips, electrical equipment and other critical hardware needed to produce everything from kitchen appliances, cars, computers, data servers and military equipment. Entire supply routes for "[data] servers to computers to iPhones—everything—is gone," one western chip executive told the FT.
China holds only 4% of the global semiconductor share and can't make up the stymied supply from the world's biggest chipmakers in the U.S. and Taiwan, Guriev says. Chinese firms are also holding back over concerns of triggering secondary sanctions from the west. The collapse of high-tech imports means that the Russian economy will undergo a "regressive transformation," Matveev says. He notes that while the world progresses, Russia will be relegated to trying to reach its pre-war economic state, thus its technological and economic gap with the rest of the globe will widen over time.
Russia “hasn’t seen the worst yet,” even as its economy has undergone some initial shocks, Matveev says. “Unemployment will [increase] and shortages [of goods and parts] and price increases will continue,” he says.
Other experts agree. The EU's sixth sanctions package against Russia, which will ban Russian seaborne crude by December and petroleum products by next February—90% of the bloc's Russian oil imports—will be a major blow to the Kremlin if it’s implemented properly. The bloc accounted for 61% of Russia's fossil fuel revenues from January to May this year. If the embargo is seriously enforced, Putin "won't have enough money to recruit soldiers," let alone prop up its citizens and industries, Guriev says.
Russia's central bank expects an 8 to 10% gross domestic product (GDP) decline this year, compared to a pre-war growth forecast of 2%. That figure is a "substantial decline largely caused by western sanctions," Solanko says.
Russia’s economic squeeze will come in the long run as the country deindustrializes, faces growing unemployment and continued stagflation and a run on goods, Rutland says.
In short, Russia is staring down its worst recession in 30 years, Guriev says.
Russia's economic crises in 2009, 2014 and 2020 involved steep drops and fast recoveries. But experts agree that Russia won't experience a speedy economic reboot his time around. Russia is facing a future of stagnation for years, perhaps even decades, Matveev says.
As Solanko notes, Russia is "isolating itself and decoupling from the global economy. This time, the fast recovery won’t come.”
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
... That Shahed-191 looks like a stealth bomber, that surrre didn't take long for the design to be used by an enemy... I honestly thought that it would be China or Russia to use it firstExclusive: Russians have visited Iran at least twice in last month to examine weapons-capable drones
A Russian delegation has visited an airfield in central Iran at least twice in the last month to examine weapons-capable drones, according to national security adviser Jake Sullivan and satellite imagery obtained exclusively by CNN.
(CNN)A Russian delegation has visited an airfield in central Iran at least twice in the last month to examine weapons-capable drones, according to national security adviser Jake Sullivan and satellite imagery obtained exclusively by CNN.
Iran began showcasing the Shahed-191 and Shahed-129 drones, also known as UAVs or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, to Russia at Kashan Airfield south of Tehran in June, US officials told CNN. Both types of drones are capable of carrying precision-guided missiles.
"We have information that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs," Sullivan told CNN in a statement.
"We assess an official Russian delegation recently received a showcase of Iranian attack-capable UAVs," Sullivan added. "We are releasing these images captured in June showing Iranian UAVs that the Russian government delegation saw that day. This suggests ongoing Russian interest in acquiring Iranian attack-capable UAVs."
Sullivan said that to the US' knowledge, the June visit "was the first time a Russian delegation has visited this airfield for such a showcase." A Russian delegation visited the airfield for a similar showcase again on July 5, the officials said.
The news comes as Biden is wrapping up his trip to the Middle East, where Iran was a key point of discussion among the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries. A US official told CNN that the growing partnership between Iran and Russia exemplifies why the US needs to maintain its presence and influence in the Middle East.
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Biden remains under increasing pressure from Middle Eastern allies to come up with a viable plan to constrain Iran, as hopes for reviving the 2015 nuclear deal have faded following stalled talks in Doha, Qatar, last month.
White House officials revealed earlier this week that newly declassified US intelligence indicates that Iran is expected to supply Russia with "hundreds" of drones for use in the war in Ukraine, with Iran preparing to begin training Russian forces on how to operate them as early as late July.
Russia, the US now believes, has apparently turned to Iran to help replenish its drone stockpiles. It is unclear how sophisticated or effective those drones will be, however.
Russia had previously turned to China for help in supporting its war in Ukraine, US officials disclosed in March. As of late May, the US had seen no evidence that China had provided any military or economic support to Russia for the invasion, Sullivan told reporters at the time.
Exclusive: Russians have visited Iran at least twice in last month to examine weapons-capable drones - CNNPolitics
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Ukraine accuses US and European banks over Russia links
Government official says JPMorgan, HSBC, Citi and Crédit Agricole are guilty of ‘war crimes’
yesterday
Oleg Ustenko, economic adviser to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accuses banks of ‘prolonging’ the war by providing credit to companies that ship Russian oil © Dogukan Keskinkilic/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
The Ukrainian government has told US and European bank bosses to sever ties with groups that trade Russian oil, as a top aide to president Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused the lenders of “war crimes”.
Oleg Ustenko, economic adviser to Zelenskyy, wrote to bankers including JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon and HSBC’s Noel Quinn, asking them to stop financing companies that trade Russian oil and sell shares in state-backed oil and gas groups Gazprom and Rosneft.
In the letters, seen by the Financial Times, which were sent this week and also went to Citigroup and Crédit Agricole, banks were accused of “prolonging” the war by providing credit to companies that ship Russian oil and told they would be blocked from participating in the postwar reconstruction of Ukraine.
In an interview with the FT, Ustenko said that Ukraine’s Ministry for Justice intends to sue the banks at the International Criminal Court once the war ends, and that Ukraine’s security services were collecting information on the financial institutions supporting Russian fossil fuels.
“In my view they are committing war crimes because they are helping the Putin regime in this specific way and they are supporting the regime,” he said, arguing that Russian oil and gas revenues fund the purchasing of rockets and missiles used against Ukrainians.
The ICC cannot investigate or prosecute governments or corporations. However, it may investigate and prosecute individuals from those organisations.
HSBC’s and Crédit Agricole’s asset management arms hold shares in Gazprom and Rosneft, Russia’s state oil and gas firms. Citigroup provides credit facilities to Russian oil and gas giant Lukoil and to Vitol, which trades in Russian oil, according to the letters.
JPMorgan extends credit lines to Vitol, while its Russian Securities investment trust holds stakes in Gazprom, Sberbank and Rosneft, described in the letter as some of the Kremlin’s most important economic assets.
The Ukrainian government is particularly angry at JPMorgan after it published an analyst note warning that attempts to impose a price cap on Russian oil could drive global prices to a “stratospheric $380/bbl”.
In the letter to Dimon, Ustenko said that the note was “scaremongering, based on poor quality analysis” and also complained that it referred to the situation in Ukraine as a “crisis” rather than a Russian invasion.
In a statement, JPMorgan said it played an active role in implementing western sanctions. “Managing these evolving sanctions has been an enormous undertaking for all global financial institutions, who have quickly and diligently implemented multilateral sanctions on Russia’s major banks, its central bank, companies and individuals,” it added.
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Citigroup and Crédit Agricole did not respond to Ustenko’s comments directly, but reiterated their previous statements about suspending and paring back activities in Russia. HSBC declined to comment. HSBC and Citigroup are in talks with potential acquirers for their local businesses.
Privately, bankers noted that it has been impossible to divest some of their Russian holdings owing to sanctions or the suspension from trading of certain stocks.
Vitol said it has cut its Russian oil business by 80 per cent since the invasion and that the remaining volumes all comply with western sanctions, which were designed to keep Russian oil flowing.
Government official says JPMorgan, HSBC, Citi and Crédit Agricole are guilty of ‘war crimes’
yesterday
Oleg Ustenko, economic adviser to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accuses banks of ‘prolonging’ the war by providing credit to companies that ship Russian oil © Dogukan Keskinkilic/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
The Ukrainian government has told US and European bank bosses to sever ties with groups that trade Russian oil, as a top aide to president Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused the lenders of “war crimes”.
Oleg Ustenko, economic adviser to Zelenskyy, wrote to bankers including JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon and HSBC’s Noel Quinn, asking them to stop financing companies that trade Russian oil and sell shares in state-backed oil and gas groups Gazprom and Rosneft.
In the letters, seen by the Financial Times, which were sent this week and also went to Citigroup and Crédit Agricole, banks were accused of “prolonging” the war by providing credit to companies that ship Russian oil and told they would be blocked from participating in the postwar reconstruction of Ukraine.
In an interview with the FT, Ustenko said that Ukraine’s Ministry for Justice intends to sue the banks at the International Criminal Court once the war ends, and that Ukraine’s security services were collecting information on the financial institutions supporting Russian fossil fuels.
“In my view they are committing war crimes because they are helping the Putin regime in this specific way and they are supporting the regime,” he said, arguing that Russian oil and gas revenues fund the purchasing of rockets and missiles used against Ukrainians.
The ICC cannot investigate or prosecute governments or corporations. However, it may investigate and prosecute individuals from those organisations.
HSBC’s and Crédit Agricole’s asset management arms hold shares in Gazprom and Rosneft, Russia’s state oil and gas firms. Citigroup provides credit facilities to Russian oil and gas giant Lukoil and to Vitol, which trades in Russian oil, according to the letters.
JPMorgan extends credit lines to Vitol, while its Russian Securities investment trust holds stakes in Gazprom, Sberbank and Rosneft, described in the letter as some of the Kremlin’s most important economic assets.
The Ukrainian government is particularly angry at JPMorgan after it published an analyst note warning that attempts to impose a price cap on Russian oil could drive global prices to a “stratospheric $380/bbl”.
In the letter to Dimon, Ustenko said that the note was “scaremongering, based on poor quality analysis” and also complained that it referred to the situation in Ukraine as a “crisis” rather than a Russian invasion.
In a statement, JPMorgan said it played an active role in implementing western sanctions. “Managing these evolving sanctions has been an enormous undertaking for all global financial institutions, who have quickly and diligently implemented multilateral sanctions on Russia’s major banks, its central bank, companies and individuals,” it added.
Recommended
Citigroup and Crédit Agricole did not respond to Ustenko’s comments directly, but reiterated their previous statements about suspending and paring back activities in Russia. HSBC declined to comment. HSBC and Citigroup are in talks with potential acquirers for their local businesses.
Privately, bankers noted that it has been impossible to divest some of their Russian holdings owing to sanctions or the suspension from trading of certain stocks.
Vitol said it has cut its Russian oil business by 80 per cent since the invasion and that the remaining volumes all comply with western sanctions, which were designed to keep Russian oil flowing.
The Russian Federation has launched a large-scale drive to form volunteer battalions in the 85 “federal subjects” (or regions) that comprise the federation. Recruiting for some volunteer battalions began in June but has intensified in July, with new volunteer units being reported daily. The battalions apparently will consist of roughly 400 men each aged between 18 and 60. They will belong to various branches of service including motorized rifle, tank, and naval infantry, but also signals and logistics. Recruits are not required to have prior military service and will undergo only 30 days of training before deployment to Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org
Accepting volunteers up to 60 and training them for 30 days, what could go wrong?
The number of military registration and enlistment offices is growing, which, as the Cheka-OGPU found out, are deceiving active students into the army. Such facts were recorded in the Izmailovsky, Tver, Krasnoselsky, Tushinsky military registration and enlistment offices of Moscow. Readers of the Cheka-OGPU faced a similar situation in the military registration and enlistment office of the Tsaritsynsky district of Moscow.
Many full-time students received summons by mail to their homes and to the institute that they must come to the military registration and enlistment office "to clarify documents" in May, at the specified date and time, presenting a passport, a copy of the diploma / certificate, an outpatient card with test results and vaccinations, as well as a certificate from the place of study. Having taken a certificate from the place of study in the required form, the students came to the military enlistment office on the specified date and presented certificates. The certificates indicated that they were studying until August 31. However, the students were told that if their studies were completed, they should immediately undergo a medical examination, and then go to the draft board. And this despite the fact that students have not yet passed the state exams.
Russian Volunteer Units and Battalions
The Russian Federation has launched a large-scale drive to form volunteer battalions in the 85 “federal subjects” (or regions) that comprise the federation. Recruiting for some volunteer battalions began in June but has intensified in July, with new volunteer units being reported daily. The...
www.understandingwar.org
Accepting volunteers up to 60 and training them for 30 days, what could go wrong?
The number of military registration and enlistment offices is growing, which, as the Cheka-OGPU found out, are deceiving active students into the army. Such facts were recorded in the Izmailovsky, Tver, Krasnoselsky, Tushinsky military registration and enlistment offices of Moscow. Readers of the Cheka-OGPU faced a similar situation in the military registration and enlistment office of the Tsaritsynsky district of Moscow.
Many full-time students received summons by mail to their homes and to the institute that they must come to the military registration and enlistment office "to clarify documents" in May, at the specified date and time, presenting a passport, a copy of the diploma / certificate, an outpatient card with test results and vaccinations, as well as a certificate from the place of study. Having taken a certificate from the place of study in the required form, the students came to the military enlistment office on the specified date and presented certificates. The certificates indicated that they were studying until August 31. However, the students were told that if their studies were completed, they should immediately undergo a medical examination, and then go to the draft board. And this despite the fact that students have not yet passed the state exams.
Russia threatens Swiss newspaper over Putin caricature
Russia has threatened Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung with legal action after it published a caricature of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
www.swissinfo.ch
Pusstin ain’t sensitive is he?
Russia threatens Swiss newspaper over Putin caricature
Russia has threatened Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung with legal action after it published a caricature of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
US doubles down on claim that Iran wants to sell drones to Russia
Iran has already told Ukraine it will not do anything to prolong the war, which it blames on NATO’s expansion in Europe.
Maziar Motamedi
Iran's army holds a military exercise involving ballistic missiles and drones in the country's central desert in January 2021 [File: Imamedia via AP]
Tehran, Iran – The United States has doubled down on its claim that Iran is planning to sell “hundreds” of drones to Russia to be used in Ukraine, a day after Tehran explicitly rejected the allegation.
Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, on Saturday reiterated his statement made earlier this week that Iran wants to sell weapons-capable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Moscow.
He released satellite imagery to the US-based CNN network that purportedly showed that a Russian delegation visited an airfield in central Kashan at least twice in the last month.
The Russian delegation is alleged to have been treated to a showcase of the Shahed-191 and Shahed-129 drones, both capable of carrying precision-guided missiles.
Sullivan also claimed earlier this week that Iran is training Russian forces in using the drones, and said it is unclear if any drones have already been sold to Moscow.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has denied the US claims in a phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba on Friday, saying Iran will not do anything to prolong the fighting.
Amirabdollahian said the claims are aimed at advancing the US’s political goals as they came right before US President Joe Biden began his tour of the Middle East, with a united stance against Iran being a major agenda of the trip.
“The fundamental and explicit stance of the Islamic republic in opposing war and supporting a stop to the war is not based on a double standard like some Western countries,” Amirabdollahian told Kuleba, adding that Iran also opposes the fighting in Afghanistan, Yemen and Palestine.
The developments also come as Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan are expected to arrive in Tehran on Tuesday for a trilateral sit-down with Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi to discuss the Syria crisis.
The leaders are expected to hold bilateral meetings as well, and Putin will reportedly meet with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei.
Turkey has supplied Ukraine with its armed Bayraktar drones, which have been used in the war against Russia.
Since the start of the Ukraine war in February, Iran has said it wants the fighting to stop through dialogue, but has refused to condemn Russia, instead blaming NATO’s expansion in Europe as the root cause of the conflict.
US officials had also claimed in March that Russia had turned to China for help in supporting the war in Ukraine. So far, there has been no evidence of Chinese arms being used in Ukraine.
Sullivan also confirmed to reporters in late May that the US has seen no evidence that China has provided any military or economic support to Russia for the invasion.
Iran has already told Ukraine it will not do anything to prolong the war, which it blames on NATO’s expansion in Europe.
Maziar Motamedi
Iran's army holds a military exercise involving ballistic missiles and drones in the country's central desert in January 2021 [File: Imamedia via AP]
Tehran, Iran – The United States has doubled down on its claim that Iran is planning to sell “hundreds” of drones to Russia to be used in Ukraine, a day after Tehran explicitly rejected the allegation.
Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, on Saturday reiterated his statement made earlier this week that Iran wants to sell weapons-capable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Moscow.
He released satellite imagery to the US-based CNN network that purportedly showed that a Russian delegation visited an airfield in central Kashan at least twice in the last month.
The Russian delegation is alleged to have been treated to a showcase of the Shahed-191 and Shahed-129 drones, both capable of carrying precision-guided missiles.
Sullivan also claimed earlier this week that Iran is training Russian forces in using the drones, and said it is unclear if any drones have already been sold to Moscow.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has denied the US claims in a phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba on Friday, saying Iran will not do anything to prolong the fighting.
Amirabdollahian said the claims are aimed at advancing the US’s political goals as they came right before US President Joe Biden began his tour of the Middle East, with a united stance against Iran being a major agenda of the trip.
“The fundamental and explicit stance of the Islamic republic in opposing war and supporting a stop to the war is not based on a double standard like some Western countries,” Amirabdollahian told Kuleba, adding that Iran also opposes the fighting in Afghanistan, Yemen and Palestine.
The developments also come as Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan are expected to arrive in Tehran on Tuesday for a trilateral sit-down with Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi to discuss the Syria crisis.
The leaders are expected to hold bilateral meetings as well, and Putin will reportedly meet with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei.
Turkey has supplied Ukraine with its armed Bayraktar drones, which have been used in the war against Russia.
Since the start of the Ukraine war in February, Iran has said it wants the fighting to stop through dialogue, but has refused to condemn Russia, instead blaming NATO’s expansion in Europe as the root cause of the conflict.
US officials had also claimed in March that Russia had turned to China for help in supporting the war in Ukraine. So far, there has been no evidence of Chinese arms being used in Ukraine.
Sullivan also confirmed to reporters in late May that the US has seen no evidence that China has provided any military or economic support to Russia for the invasion.
Pusstin ain’t sensitive is he?
Russia has banned a picture depicting President Vladimir Putin as a potentially gay clown.
Russian news outlets are having trouble reporting exactly which image of the Internet's many Putin-gay-clown memes is now illegal to share. Because, you know, it's been banned.
But the picture was described last week on the Russian government's list of things that constitute “extremism.”
It’s now illegal in Russia to share an image of Putin as a gay clown
My bold predictions for the remainder of 2022: Blue and yellow will be "illegal" colors and the numbers/letters M270 and M142 simply don't exist.
Heard a somewhat uncomformed/confirmed number about Ukraine loses for Thursday.
seem like it was close to 1k just on that day…
Another person said that that “YouCrane governing officials” refusing to give women information about their husbands, fathers, son etc….
Saw some numbers from that post about
18 to 1 KIA/WIA over that last few weeks
that shit might be hyped up but what I’ve learnt over these last few weeks…. Russia artillery is a insane…
seem like it was close to 1k just on that day…
Another person said that that “YouCrane governing officials” refusing to give women information about their husbands, fathers, son etc….
Saw some numbers from that post about
18 to 1 KIA/WIA over that last few weeks
that shit might be hyped up but what I’ve learnt over these last few weeks…. Russia artillery is a insane…
For a country with such “insane” artillery, it sure is taking a mighty long time to overtake such a small country. They pretty much gave up on their main target(s).
that’s true….
I’m kinda a preschooler with this combat stuff, so if my lack of knowledge show… it is what it is
I mean hell I just learned just because a armor vehicle have tracks it’s not a tank…
now I’ve read many Russian who are upset with the pace, complain about the government bullshitting and not sending more troops, to get this over with faster…(granted that fools wanted them to take all of Ukraine….that just shows where his thoughts are)
I saw the troops count one report that the troops count is near 3:1 in favor of Ukraine.
early in this thread, there was a lengthy conversation at attacking and defending…
supposedly the rule of thumb is 4:1 when attacking..
so if those 4:1 numbers are idea for conflicts and the current troops ratio is near 3:1
Russia have to slow roll this to limit the KIA numbers…
If I can be honest here…. They actually moving way faster than the thought…
I didn’t see LizzieChance and SeveralDonuts happening like that…
seem like Seversk going kinda quickly also after they hyped it up
was Russia off the mark or did they hit their target…
Seem like off the mark too…. But might get some info or maybe not
let’s see if “YouCrane” release anything about officials or arms deals being kill…
I saw some stuff Info on dead officials but i didn’t search to see if it was real, so I didn’t pose it
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