Blockbuster Breakdown
By Marc Stein
ESPN.com
The one-year anniversary of Allen Iverson's first game as a Nugget is Saturday. Which naturally made us nostalgic.
It also made me think of poor Philadelphia and the NBA maxim that says blockbuster trades never work out well for the team that surrenders the superstar … like when Philly only managed to get Jeff Hornacek, Tim Perry and Andrew Lang for Charles Barkley in 1992.
Throw in Wednesday's theater of Kevin Garnett's first big game as a Celtic and the not-going-away curiosity about the futures of Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd and this seems like an ideal time to take stock of the league's last five superstar trades and rank them 1 to 5 in terms of how they worked out for the team giving up its franchise player.
For folks out there who are desperate for B-I-G deals, there's good news: All five of these megadeals were consummated in the past 3½ years. Who says no one makes trades?
Yet for the teams starting anew, there's mostly sad news: One trade was way ahead of the other four in terms of approaching equal value … and even that one didn't work out quite right for the club selling off its cornerstone.
Our breakdown follows, in two parts:
1. The Shaq Trade
Lakers got: Caron Butler, Lamar Odom, Brian Grant, a 2006 first-round pick (used to select Jordan Farmar at No. 26) and a 2007 second-round pick (which was later traded to Dallas)
Date: July 14, 2004
Shaquille O'Neal's age when dealt to Miami: 32
The assessment: The Lakers are habitually hammered for what they were willing to take back in exchange for O'Neal, largely because they haven't won a playoff series since and because Shaq proceeded to help Miami win its first championship in franchise history.
History, however, suggests that the Lakers might have actually fared better trading their superstar than any team previously … and definitely any team since.
L.A.'s real crime is what it did after this blockbuster. After just one season -- which happens to be the only season in the past nine in which Phil Jackson didn't coach the Lakers -- Butler and Chucky Atkins were shipped to Washington for Kwame Brown.
Oops.
I have to put my hand up and admit that I, too, thought it was a worthy gamble at the time, since Brown was a 7-foot No. 1 overall draft pick who was still only 23. You could understand, even after they had just drafted Andrew Bynum one month earlier, why the Lakers thought they had to gamble on more size, still unsure at that stage how they'd cope long-term without O'Neal.
But just imagine now if the Lakers had kept Butler in a three-man core with Bryant and Odom, joined by the blossoming Bynum and the role-player support of Luke Walton, Derek Fisher, Farmar, etc. In this era when rugged, mobile, versatile athletes like Butler who can shoot with range and shift between small forward and power forward are more valuable than ever, L.A. would really have something, especially given how Bynum is developing.
Butler's game has evolved so nicely that there are surely some Heat fans out there, fearing how much farther their freefalling team of oldies will nosedive, asking their own what-ifs. Since it's not my money, I'm 100 percent sold that the steep price Miami has paid -- and will continue to pay with Shaq due to earn $40 million over the next two seasons and no easy fixes to reload around Dwyane Wade -- was well worth it for that first championship so many other teams and great players are still chasing. But Butler is that good now. He at least makes you think about it.
The NBA's other four most recent superstar trades, all of which make the Shaq trade look borderline shrewd for the Lakers:
2. The KG Trade
Timberwolves got: Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Sebastian Telfair, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff and two future first-round draft picks
Date: July 31, 2007
Kevin Garnett's age when dealt to Boston: 31
The assessment: This should tell you how poorly teams generally do when they trade away a franchise player. A deal skewered here (and elsewhere) countless times in the five months since it went down ranks as the second-best of its kind that we've seen in the past few years. Really.
Our original issues with Minnesota's thinking haven't changed. The Wolves waited at least one year too long to finally move Garnett, for starters, and came away with a fistful of maybes when they finally jumped.
Yes: Ratliff's contract provides some salary-cap relief for the Wolves. Yes: Getting back the first-round pick sent to Boston in January 2006 in the Ricky Davis-Wally Szczerbiak trade is a good thing, because the starting-over Wolves are so bad now. That pick is destined for the upper reaches of the lottery.
However …
Gomes is unlikely to be considered rotation-player material by any good team while Telfair and Green are coveted by no team. Boston's first-round pick in 2009, furthermore, will almost certainly be a late first-rounder -- and thus nothing to get too giddy about -- unless you think Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will somehow miss the playoffs next season.
So it's basically Al Jefferson, one lottery pick and financial flexibility in exchange for the player synonymous with 'Sota. Only one player, at this point, guaranteed to be a factor for a contender. Enough for you?
One rival executive we spoke with had some sympathy for the Wolves, since Jefferson already does look like a future All-Star. Said the GM: "They do get some points for getting a good big back."
Yet you'd like to think that they could have scored more for KG than "some points."
3. The A.I. Trade
76ers got: Andre Miller, Joe Smith and two 2007 first-round picks
Date: Dec. 19, 2006
Allen Iverson's age when dealt to Denver: 31
The assessment: As of Friday morning, Denver was a mere 46-38 since acquiring Iverson and is still not considered an elite team, even with one of the league's three highest payrolls.
Yet you still have to ask, one year later: How could the Nuggets not make this trade for what little it cost them in terms of assets?
Right. If Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke was willing to absorb the financial cost involved -- and it's a considerable cost given the skepticism that persists about Iverson, Carmelo Anthony and the cast around them ever reaching the NBA elite -- it was and remains a slam-dunk deal.
I suppose Sixers general manager Ed Stefanski can still change the complexion of things here if he gets a good piece or two in a trade for Miller between now and February. Or if the Miller deal that's widely expected around the league in the next six weeks simply creates more salary-cap space for the Sixers, in addition to the financial flexibility Smith's contract created.
As it stands, though, Philly only has Miller, rookie Jason Smith, salary-cap relief and a bit of drama relief to show for the KG-type figure synonymous with this franchise … and no discernible franchise player to build around. The leaguewide consensus on both Andres -- Miller and Andre Iguodala -- is that both players should be cast as no more than the third- or fourth-best player on the team. "Iguodala is a No. 3 and Miller is a No. 4 or 5," insists one West exec.
The ability to get two first-rounders from the Nuggets was the clincher that prompted Stefanski's predecessor Billy King to take Denver's offer, but those picks only turned out to be No. 21 and the final pick of the first round at No. 30. The Sixers swapped with Miami on draft night to move up one spot to take Smith, then traded No. 30 to Portland (which selected Finland's Petteri Koponen) for a second-rounder (No. 42 overall pick Derrick Byars) who didn't make it out of training camp.
5 (tie). The T-Mac Trade
Magic got: Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley and Kelvin Cato
Date: June 29, 2004
Tracy McGrady's age when dealt to Houston: 25
The assessment: With trades like this one and the next one, there really isn't a No. 4. Equal dissing with the Vince Carter trade feels like the most appropriate treatment.
After swiping McGrady from the Raptors at the cost of a single first-round pick in 2000, Orlando didn't get a single future pick from Houston when it shipped T-Mac out along with Juwan Howard, Tyronn Lue and Reece Gaines. And none of the principals obtained by the Magic are still with the team … including the front-office guy with the hockey background (John Weisbrod) who made the deal.
Francis was traded to New York within two years for Trevor Ariza and Penny Hardaway's expiring contract. Although that move did help to create the salary-cap space that enabled Orlando to sign Rashard Lewis in the summer of 2007, it's a stretch to make too much of that connection because (a) that certainly wasn't the plan when Francis was acquired and (b) Weisbrod's replacement, Otis Smith, also had to cut ties with Grant Hill and Darko Milicic before there was sufficient payroll room to give Lewis his $118 million.
The Magic got tons more out of McGrady's disastrous final season in town than they manufactured by actually moving him. With a 21-61 finish lowlighted by a 19-game losing streak in his farewell season, Orlando won the 2004 lottery and the right to draft Dwight Howard five days before the trade that ended the T-Mac Era. The Magic also snared Jameer Nelson in the draft when Nelson slipped to No. 20.
5 (tie). The Vince Trade
Raptors got: Alonzo Mourning, Aaron Williams, Eric Williams and two 2005 first-round picks
Date: Dec. 17, 2004
Vince Carter's age when dealt to New Jersey: 26
The assessment: It's probably no coincidence that three of the five GMs who swung these trades no longer work for those teams.
One could broaden the examination to investigate (for the umpteenth time in the last year or two) how or why Kevin McHale hasn't made it four out of five to be dismissed, but we'll focus here on Babcock's brief Toronto tenure and how he sealed his dismissal with the Carter nightmare … which ironically led to Minnesota promptly hiring him back as a top aide to McHale.
The pressure was already mounting after Babcock's first draft pick -- Rafael Araujo at a way-too-high No. 8 in 2004 -- flopped almost immediately. Carter then began the following season in shutdown mode, playing lifelessly until he convinced the Raptors that they had to take whatever they could get for him.
Carter must have been convincing, because the Raps actually received less than whatever. Worse yet, Toronto ultimately paid some $10 million in a buyout for Mourning to go away, because Zo was even louder in his Canadian discontent than Carter.
The picks? Not much salvation for the Raps there, either. At No. 16 overall in the 2005 draft, they selected Joey Graham. The other pick was later dealt to New York in February 2006 to entice the Knicks to take on Jalen Rose's contract in exchange for Antonio Davis, with Isiah Thomas using it to draft Renaldo Balkman.
PS: Two trades that were narrowly spared inclusion on his list: New Orleans holding out for no more than Dale Davis, Speedy Claxton and cash for Baron Davis on Feb. 24, 2005; and Chris Webber going from Sacramento to Philadelphia one day earlier (along with Matt Barnes and Michael Bradley) for Kenny Thomas, Corliss Williamson and Brian Skinner. Allan Bristow resigned as the Hornets' front-office chief before the following season and Geoff Petrie is still trying to rebuild Sacramento's kingdom almost three years after Webber was exiled.
By Marc Stein
ESPN.com
The one-year anniversary of Allen Iverson's first game as a Nugget is Saturday. Which naturally made us nostalgic.
It also made me think of poor Philadelphia and the NBA maxim that says blockbuster trades never work out well for the team that surrenders the superstar … like when Philly only managed to get Jeff Hornacek, Tim Perry and Andrew Lang for Charles Barkley in 1992.
Throw in Wednesday's theater of Kevin Garnett's first big game as a Celtic and the not-going-away curiosity about the futures of Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd and this seems like an ideal time to take stock of the league's last five superstar trades and rank them 1 to 5 in terms of how they worked out for the team giving up its franchise player.
For folks out there who are desperate for B-I-G deals, there's good news: All five of these megadeals were consummated in the past 3½ years. Who says no one makes trades?
Yet for the teams starting anew, there's mostly sad news: One trade was way ahead of the other four in terms of approaching equal value … and even that one didn't work out quite right for the club selling off its cornerstone.
Our breakdown follows, in two parts:
1. The Shaq Trade
Lakers got: Caron Butler, Lamar Odom, Brian Grant, a 2006 first-round pick (used to select Jordan Farmar at No. 26) and a 2007 second-round pick (which was later traded to Dallas)
Date: July 14, 2004
Shaquille O'Neal's age when dealt to Miami: 32
The assessment: The Lakers are habitually hammered for what they were willing to take back in exchange for O'Neal, largely because they haven't won a playoff series since and because Shaq proceeded to help Miami win its first championship in franchise history.
History, however, suggests that the Lakers might have actually fared better trading their superstar than any team previously … and definitely any team since.
L.A.'s real crime is what it did after this blockbuster. After just one season -- which happens to be the only season in the past nine in which Phil Jackson didn't coach the Lakers -- Butler and Chucky Atkins were shipped to Washington for Kwame Brown.
Oops.
I have to put my hand up and admit that I, too, thought it was a worthy gamble at the time, since Brown was a 7-foot No. 1 overall draft pick who was still only 23. You could understand, even after they had just drafted Andrew Bynum one month earlier, why the Lakers thought they had to gamble on more size, still unsure at that stage how they'd cope long-term without O'Neal.
But just imagine now if the Lakers had kept Butler in a three-man core with Bryant and Odom, joined by the blossoming Bynum and the role-player support of Luke Walton, Derek Fisher, Farmar, etc. In this era when rugged, mobile, versatile athletes like Butler who can shoot with range and shift between small forward and power forward are more valuable than ever, L.A. would really have something, especially given how Bynum is developing.
Butler's game has evolved so nicely that there are surely some Heat fans out there, fearing how much farther their freefalling team of oldies will nosedive, asking their own what-ifs. Since it's not my money, I'm 100 percent sold that the steep price Miami has paid -- and will continue to pay with Shaq due to earn $40 million over the next two seasons and no easy fixes to reload around Dwyane Wade -- was well worth it for that first championship so many other teams and great players are still chasing. But Butler is that good now. He at least makes you think about it.
The NBA's other four most recent superstar trades, all of which make the Shaq trade look borderline shrewd for the Lakers:
2. The KG Trade
Timberwolves got: Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Sebastian Telfair, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff and two future first-round draft picks
Date: July 31, 2007
Kevin Garnett's age when dealt to Boston: 31
The assessment: This should tell you how poorly teams generally do when they trade away a franchise player. A deal skewered here (and elsewhere) countless times in the five months since it went down ranks as the second-best of its kind that we've seen in the past few years. Really.
Our original issues with Minnesota's thinking haven't changed. The Wolves waited at least one year too long to finally move Garnett, for starters, and came away with a fistful of maybes when they finally jumped.
Yes: Ratliff's contract provides some salary-cap relief for the Wolves. Yes: Getting back the first-round pick sent to Boston in January 2006 in the Ricky Davis-Wally Szczerbiak trade is a good thing, because the starting-over Wolves are so bad now. That pick is destined for the upper reaches of the lottery.
However …
Gomes is unlikely to be considered rotation-player material by any good team while Telfair and Green are coveted by no team. Boston's first-round pick in 2009, furthermore, will almost certainly be a late first-rounder -- and thus nothing to get too giddy about -- unless you think Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will somehow miss the playoffs next season.
So it's basically Al Jefferson, one lottery pick and financial flexibility in exchange for the player synonymous with 'Sota. Only one player, at this point, guaranteed to be a factor for a contender. Enough for you?
One rival executive we spoke with had some sympathy for the Wolves, since Jefferson already does look like a future All-Star. Said the GM: "They do get some points for getting a good big back."
Yet you'd like to think that they could have scored more for KG than "some points."
3. The A.I. Trade
76ers got: Andre Miller, Joe Smith and two 2007 first-round picks
Date: Dec. 19, 2006
Allen Iverson's age when dealt to Denver: 31
The assessment: As of Friday morning, Denver was a mere 46-38 since acquiring Iverson and is still not considered an elite team, even with one of the league's three highest payrolls.
Yet you still have to ask, one year later: How could the Nuggets not make this trade for what little it cost them in terms of assets?
Right. If Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke was willing to absorb the financial cost involved -- and it's a considerable cost given the skepticism that persists about Iverson, Carmelo Anthony and the cast around them ever reaching the NBA elite -- it was and remains a slam-dunk deal.
I suppose Sixers general manager Ed Stefanski can still change the complexion of things here if he gets a good piece or two in a trade for Miller between now and February. Or if the Miller deal that's widely expected around the league in the next six weeks simply creates more salary-cap space for the Sixers, in addition to the financial flexibility Smith's contract created.
As it stands, though, Philly only has Miller, rookie Jason Smith, salary-cap relief and a bit of drama relief to show for the KG-type figure synonymous with this franchise … and no discernible franchise player to build around. The leaguewide consensus on both Andres -- Miller and Andre Iguodala -- is that both players should be cast as no more than the third- or fourth-best player on the team. "Iguodala is a No. 3 and Miller is a No. 4 or 5," insists one West exec.
The ability to get two first-rounders from the Nuggets was the clincher that prompted Stefanski's predecessor Billy King to take Denver's offer, but those picks only turned out to be No. 21 and the final pick of the first round at No. 30. The Sixers swapped with Miami on draft night to move up one spot to take Smith, then traded No. 30 to Portland (which selected Finland's Petteri Koponen) for a second-rounder (No. 42 overall pick Derrick Byars) who didn't make it out of training camp.
5 (tie). The T-Mac Trade
Magic got: Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley and Kelvin Cato
Date: June 29, 2004
Tracy McGrady's age when dealt to Houston: 25
The assessment: With trades like this one and the next one, there really isn't a No. 4. Equal dissing with the Vince Carter trade feels like the most appropriate treatment.
After swiping McGrady from the Raptors at the cost of a single first-round pick in 2000, Orlando didn't get a single future pick from Houston when it shipped T-Mac out along with Juwan Howard, Tyronn Lue and Reece Gaines. And none of the principals obtained by the Magic are still with the team … including the front-office guy with the hockey background (John Weisbrod) who made the deal.
Francis was traded to New York within two years for Trevor Ariza and Penny Hardaway's expiring contract. Although that move did help to create the salary-cap space that enabled Orlando to sign Rashard Lewis in the summer of 2007, it's a stretch to make too much of that connection because (a) that certainly wasn't the plan when Francis was acquired and (b) Weisbrod's replacement, Otis Smith, also had to cut ties with Grant Hill and Darko Milicic before there was sufficient payroll room to give Lewis his $118 million.
The Magic got tons more out of McGrady's disastrous final season in town than they manufactured by actually moving him. With a 21-61 finish lowlighted by a 19-game losing streak in his farewell season, Orlando won the 2004 lottery and the right to draft Dwight Howard five days before the trade that ended the T-Mac Era. The Magic also snared Jameer Nelson in the draft when Nelson slipped to No. 20.
5 (tie). The Vince Trade
Raptors got: Alonzo Mourning, Aaron Williams, Eric Williams and two 2005 first-round picks
Date: Dec. 17, 2004
Vince Carter's age when dealt to New Jersey: 26
The assessment: It's probably no coincidence that three of the five GMs who swung these trades no longer work for those teams.
One could broaden the examination to investigate (for the umpteenth time in the last year or two) how or why Kevin McHale hasn't made it four out of five to be dismissed, but we'll focus here on Babcock's brief Toronto tenure and how he sealed his dismissal with the Carter nightmare … which ironically led to Minnesota promptly hiring him back as a top aide to McHale.
The pressure was already mounting after Babcock's first draft pick -- Rafael Araujo at a way-too-high No. 8 in 2004 -- flopped almost immediately. Carter then began the following season in shutdown mode, playing lifelessly until he convinced the Raptors that they had to take whatever they could get for him.
Carter must have been convincing, because the Raps actually received less than whatever. Worse yet, Toronto ultimately paid some $10 million in a buyout for Mourning to go away, because Zo was even louder in his Canadian discontent than Carter.
The picks? Not much salvation for the Raps there, either. At No. 16 overall in the 2005 draft, they selected Joey Graham. The other pick was later dealt to New York in February 2006 to entice the Knicks to take on Jalen Rose's contract in exchange for Antonio Davis, with Isiah Thomas using it to draft Renaldo Balkman.
PS: Two trades that were narrowly spared inclusion on his list: New Orleans holding out for no more than Dale Davis, Speedy Claxton and cash for Baron Davis on Feb. 24, 2005; and Chris Webber going from Sacramento to Philadelphia one day earlier (along with Matt Barnes and Michael Bradley) for Kenny Thomas, Corliss Williamson and Brian Skinner. Allan Bristow resigned as the Hornets' front-office chief before the following season and Geoff Petrie is still trying to rebuild Sacramento's kingdom almost three years after Webber was exiled.
