As we all know OKC have a choice coming soon. Harden or Ibaka. (Unless both players take a huge paycut)
http://www.hoopsworld.com/six-pack-will-presti-pick-harden-or-ibaka
I gotta go with Ibaka.
also the new CBA has had owners like Jim Buss, Mark Cuban and Paul Allen scared shitless here are the teams are trapped in the new CBA where it will be near impossible to improve their team with a major signing
http://www.hoopsworld.com/six-pack-will-presti-pick-harden-or-ibaka
1. Difficult Decisions Lie Ahead in Oklahoma City
The Oklahoma City Thunder have as bright a future as any organization in the NBA. Kevin Durant is the most potent scoring force in the entire league and is already a perennial MVP candidate. Oh, and he’s 23 years old. Russell Westbrook is one of the most dynamic and explosive point guards to come into the league in very long time. Westbrook is one of just two players to average over 23 points and five assists this season (LeBron James was the other). And Westbrook is just 23 years old. These two young studs represent the true core and foundation of the Thunder franchise. Accordingly, both Durant and Westbrook are locked up via long-term extensions exceeding $80 million.
However, the extremely intriguing question is which other key pieces will Thunder general manager Sam Presti decide to pair with his two superstars long-term? In particular, will Presti be forced to choose between two of the NBA’s more promising young players: Serge Ibaka and James Harden?
Both Ibaka and Harden can be offered contract extensions once free agency begins on July 1. However, if either player doesn’t ink an extension, they will become restricted free agents in the summer of 2013. Obviously, the Thunder’s preference would be to keep both in OKC, but that may not be a realistic possibility.
During the 2013-14 season, Durant will make $17.8 million. Westbrook will earn $15.6 million that year. Extending those two at max dollars was a no-brainer. However, the third highest-paid player on OKC is Kendrick Perkins. Presti signed Perkins to a $36 million contract extension in March of 2011, and while Presti has been an undeniably brilliant executive and team architect, that is one decision that may come back to bite him. Perkins is due $8.4 million in 2013-14, and $9.2 million the following season. Perk played 27 minutes a night for OKC during the regular season, yet averaged below seven rebounds a game for the first time since 2008 and also shot below 49 percent from the floor for just the second time in his career.
The salary cap this past season was set at $58.2 million and the cap is likely stay put next year. Assuming that number stays stable in the near future, the ramifications of three players accounting for nearly $42 million in cap space are significant.
If Harden or Ibaka are allowed to test the waters of free agency in July of 2013, rest assured they will receive immense interest and major offers from salivating suitors.
Harden is coming off the best season of his brief, but budding, career and was just named the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year. He scored in double figures in all but four of his appearances this year and led all reserves in scoring, averaging 16.8 points. Like all great bench players, he was also incredibly efficient, posting a career-high in field-goal percentage (49.1 percent). Durant and Westbrook get the lion’s share of national media attention, but Harden was often a true x-factor for Oklahoma City; the Thunder posted a 14-1 record in the 15 games Harden scored over 20 points. And how about this factoid (courtesy of Yahoo’s Justin Phan): The only six guards to post a higher PER than James Harden in their age-22 season: Chris Paul, Oscar Robertson, Kobe Bryant, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose and Magic Johnson.
Although Ibaka will never be the equal of Harden offensively, the former brings unparalleled defense and rebounding to the table. Still raw and relatively inexperienced at 22 years of age, the sky is the limit for Ibaka’s defensive prowess. Despite limited playing time, Ibaka led the NBA in blocks – averaging a full 1.5 more rejections than second-place finisher Dwight Howard. In fact, Ibaka averaged a mind-boggling 4.8 blocks per-36 minutes this season. For his career, his per-36 minutes averages are 12.6 points and 10.2 rebounds. He is also shooting 54 percent from the floor for his career, and 70 percent from the free-throw stripe. The upside is undeniable.
Even in today’s NBA, where the new CBA is supposed to dampen spending, both Harden and Ibaka will likely fetch offers up to, and possibly exceeding, $10 million a year. Yes, the Thunder would have “Bird Rights” on both players, but even if Presti was able to pare down the roster (Eric Maynor will also become a RFA next summer and Cole Aldrich has a team option for $3.3 million for 2013) to create enough cap space before hitting the salary “apron,” which essentially works as a hard cap of $74 million; it remains unknown if OKC ownership be willing be venture that far into luxury tax territory. Historically, few “small market” teams have been willing to wade into luxury tax territory.
If, in fact, OKC is forced to choose between Ibaka and Harden, it represents an incredibly intriguing quagmire. For my money, I think I’d lean towards Ibaka. Taking nothing away from Harden, the fact of the matter is Westbrook and Durant will always supply plenty of offense. In order for the Thunder to take that next step and become NBA champions, they’ll need to get crucial, fourth-quarter stops. Losing the NBA’s best young defensive big could be catastrophic.
Presti has been a nearly flawless in his decision making thus far, but his most important decision may be forthcoming. Stay tuned…
I gotta go with Ibaka.
also the new CBA has had owners like Jim Buss, Mark Cuban and Paul Allen scared shitless here are the teams are trapped in the new CBA where it will be near impossible to improve their team with a major signing
When it comes to free agency in the NBA, much of the focus is placed on which teams have the most cap space available to spend or which teams can afford the top-tier players. These teams get the press because they get to make the glamorous signings, but at the other end of the spectrum are the teams pushing up against the luxury tax line.
These teams are faced with how to make their team better with limited resources (yes, typically because of previous trades or free agent signings that raised the payroll). Their situation may be a product of their own decisions, but it’s the situation they are in. Some teams are adamant they will not pay luxury tax. Some teams will pay the tax if the player they add is worth it.
The teams below face some difficult decisions this summer because of those decisions and because of restrictions placed on teams by the new collective bargaining agreement. For example, teams over the luxury tax don’t have the Bi-Annual Exception to offer a free agent. Those same teams are limited to a smaller Mid-Level Exception as well (three years starting at $3.09 million for 2012-13 as opposed to three years starting at $5 million). Also, that doesn’t affect just teams over the tax but also teams close to the tax; if signing a player to the $5 million MLE pushes the team over $74.3 million in salary commitments ($4 million over the tax level, or “apron”), they can only offer the smaller one.
The seven teams below face constraints this summer when it comes to trying to make their teams better, to get them over the hump.
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are currently sitting at $60.9 million for next season, owed to just six players. Add in five minimum salary cap holds ($2.4 million) and the 23rd pick in the draft ($1.0 million) and the Hawks are pushing the tax line, something they have been adamant they will not cross. They could use amnesty if they want to clear some room, but they aren’t a team apt to pay a player to go away. Say the Hawks sign a player to the full MLE and their first-round pick, giving them eight players under contract. They will have $66.9 million in salaries, plus four cap holds at the rookie minimum salary ($473,604), putting them at $68.8 million. If they want to sign veteran minimum salaries – like how they signed Tracy McGrady, Vladimir Radmanovic, Jason Collins, Jerry Stackhouse, Willie Green and Jannero Pargo last summer – they will be in the luxury tax because that $473,604 number becomes $854,389 (the taxable amount for a minimum salary to a player with two or more seasons of experience). That’s going to make it very difficult for the Hawks to get better than they were this past season.
Chicago Bulls
Right now the Bulls are tax payers in 2012-13, sitting on $76.0 million to 10 players. The 29th pick in the draft will add about a million and tack on a minimum salary cap hold. They can use the mini-MLE, but it will cost them $6 million to do so with the tax. They can lower their obligations significantly if they waive Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Watson (the latter two by July 10th). They will pay just $500,000 to Korver instead of a combined $12.6 million. However, considering how good the Bulls were this past year, does it make sense to waive those players? They would still be over the cap so they would be limited to exception money (MLE and BAE) plus minimum salary deals to replace that trio. It’s unlikely that would make the team better. Amnesty is still an option for the Bulls.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers sit at $83.8 million for next season to nine players. Ramon Sessions can reduce that number by one player and $4.6 million if he declines his Player Option. Andrew Goudelock’s $0.8 million is not guaranteed, but that won’t affect whether or not the Lakers pay the tax. Andrew Bynum’s $16.1 Team Option would, but the chances the Lakers decline that are somewhere between slim and none. That means L.A.’s only way to get under the luxury tax would be use amnesty on Pau Gasol or Kobe Bryant, and that’s not happening either. This almost forces the Lakers to re-sign Sessions with Bird Rights and then use the mini-MLE on a veteran who can contribute. Then again, paying the tax has never been something that bothered this franchise.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies have $63.4 million committed next season to 10 players. Normally that wouldn’t put them on this list, but they also potentially have three restricted free agents if they make all three Qualifying Offers by June 30th: O.J. Mayo, Marreese Speights and Darrell Arthur. If they don’t make the Qualifying Offers, they will probably lose the players as unrestricted free agents. If they do issue QOs, they may not be able to match an offer sheet signed with another team without going into luxury tax territory. Speights and Mayo in particular were key members of the team this past season (Speights because of the Zach Randolph injury). Will the Grizzlies be willing to pay what it takes to keep this team together? Amnesty is still an option for Memphis as well.
Miami HEAT
Miami has $78.1 million on the books to 11 players, which probably isn’t a surprise to anyone. In fact, their obligations already sit in the luxury tax for the next three seasons and in 2015-16 they have $65.8 million going to Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. The HEAT know this – they knew it would be this way when they signed the trio – and know they now have to draft better than everyone else and get the best player they can for the mini-MLE in order to get better, just as they have the past two summers after the big signings. Nothing will change for them going forward. Miami still has the option to amnesty a player.
New York Knicks
The Knicks are an interesting case study. They have $63.0 million in commitments for 2012-13 to eight players. They could clear $1.5 million if they waived Jerome Jordan and Josh Harrelson, but that would just mean minimum salaries to replace them. J.R. Smith has a $2.6 million Player Option he will likely not invoke. Even if all of that happened, the Knicks would still be over the cap and limited only to spending exception money (MLE and BAE). However, the Knicks also have two players who can be restricted free agents and fall under the so-called “Gilbert Arenas Provision” of the CBA: Jeremy Lin and Landry Fields. What that means is that other teams can only offer these restricted free agents up to the MLE in an offer sheet, but the Knicks have to use their MLE to match such an offer sheet. The assumption is they will pay Lin the MLE, one way or another, which means there likely isn’t money left for Fields unless he is willing to sign for the BAE. Or they can use the BAE on someone else. The end result of all of this is the Knicks can’t keep Lin, Fields and Smith unless all of them combine to sign under market value. If Lin is kept for the MLE, the Knicks must fill out their roster with a BAE player and minimum salaries. Will that make them better than they were in 2011-12? Truly, the Knicks are probably the team on this list that’s the most stuck. The Hawks are limited as well, but they don’t have to face the decision of deciding which young talent they want to keep while watching the other leave.
Orlando Magic
The Magic sit at $66.7 million to 11 players. Von Wafer’s $1.1 million is non-guaranteed, as is J.J. Redick’s $6.2 million if he is waived by July 8th. If Earl Clark and Jameer Nelson both decline their Player Options, that would clear another $9.0 million, so the Magic could have just $50.4 million for seven players, but it’s not likely. The Magic sit just far enough under the tax line that they can use the full MLE, but then will lose the BAE (even if they waive Wafer). Considering the pressure being placed – both internally and externally – on the Magic front office to make the “right” decisions leading to a re-signed Dwight Howard, that means they must make the right decisions.
need a scorer. I have no idea what they can do to make their team better. 
I don't want to see anybody go but if so brewer and watson can def be replace also w/ kyle korver but we need that three man so i opt for him to stay. Harden would be a good look for the bulls but i don't think they can afford him. 
