what do you think the market is going to? down 10% overall? set some lines in the sand fellas
something we can say he called it or not... nothing subjuective.... numbers
something we can say he called it or not... nothing subjuective.... numbers
The Fed Wants to Test How Banks Would Handle Negative Rates
February 2, 2016 - 10:21 AM CST
As interest rates turn negative around the world, the Federal Reserve is asking banks to consider the possibility of the same happening in the U.S.
In its annual stress test for 2016, the Fed said it will assess the resilience of big banks to a number of possible situations, including one where the rate on the three-month U.S. Treasury bill stays below zero for a prolonged period.
"The severely adverse scenario is characterized by a severe global recession, accompanied by a period of heightened corporate financial stress and negative yields for short-term U.S. Treasury securities," the central bank said in announcing the stress tests last week.
In that particular simulation, the unemployment rate doubles to 10 percent, the same level it reached in the aftermath of the last financial crisis.
rest of the article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...zero-is-bank-stress-fed-wants-to-test-in-2016
February 2, 2016 - 10:21 AM CST
As interest rates turn negative around the world, the Federal Reserve is asking banks to consider the possibility of the same happening in the U.S.
In its annual stress test for 2016, the Fed said it will assess the resilience of big banks to a number of possible situations, including one where the rate on the three-month U.S. Treasury bill stays below zero for a prolonged period.
"The severely adverse scenario is characterized by a severe global recession, accompanied by a period of heightened corporate financial stress and negative yields for short-term U.S. Treasury securities," the central bank said in announcing the stress tests last week.
In that particular simulation, the unemployment rate doubles to 10 percent, the same level it reached in the aftermath of the last financial crisis.
rest of the article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...zero-is-bank-stress-fed-wants-to-test-in-2016
a negative rate would be something to take advantage of - but prime consumer interest rates have already been low for a very long while now
It means you pay the bank to keep your money there, regardless of your minimum balance. This would cause people to take their money out the bank and cash under your mattress is safer.
not safer - cheaper - besides- guaranteed these guys will find a way to spin it so the general public will buy it - so no run on the banks at first, but I think the real issue will be the over night loans - I can't see BOA GS or JPMC etc... willing to float billions over night and pay a % out
if the negative interests come, I WILL EMPTY MY ACCOUNT DOWN TO THE BARE MINIMUM AND BUY AS MUCH SILVER AS I CAN...CAUSE ITS GOING TO BURN BITCHES! .....ME PAY THE BANK TO KEEP MY MONEY AND THEN HMU ON LOANING ME BACK MY OWN MONEY ESP WHEN THEY BORROW AT 1-2% FROM THE FED THEN CHARGE US 8-15% ON LOANS. ....I HOPE THEY CAN HOLD ON FOR A FEW MORE WEEKS WHEN I WILL BE FREE OF ALL MY BS DEBT. THEN ...COME WITH IT!!! When theres blood on the streets buy real estate.
Markets go up and they go down....... next two years s&p will be at 1200 (down 750 points) and then we go back up............. but higher............ and do it all again.....
Now Bank of Japan lied to the world and didn't put their bank into a negative rate, nuts!
Bank of Japan minutes show no plans for negative interest rates
Feb 02, 2016 07:41PM ET
Investing.com - A month before the Bank of Japan board surprised markets and introduced negative interest rates, board member agreed that the bank didn't need to consider expanding its aggressive monetary easing as it judged the underlying price trend had been improving steadily despite some weak data, the minutes released Wednesday showed.
"Members noted that, in pursuing QQE, the bank would examine both upside and downside risks to economic activity and prices, and make adjustments as appropriate," the minutes said from at its Dec. 17-18 meeting, referring to the quantitative and qualitative easing launched in April 2013 which so far has failed to boost inflation to the bank's target of stable 2%.
"They then concurred that such adjustments were not necessary at this point, as QQE had been exerting its effects and the underlying trend in
inflation continued to improve steadily."
Only about a month later, the BOJ board decided in a tight 5 to 4 vote to ease policy by adopting negative interest rates to counter unstable stock markets and increased uncertainty over China and other emerging economies. The bank left its target for the monetary base and asset purchases unchanged, however.
"Some members - noting that there was concern among some market participants as to whether it was feasible for the bank to continue purchasing assets - expressed the recognition that the bank should facilitate smoother asset purchases under QQE and dispel such concern by taking measures that would allow it to prepare for the technical obstacle that was anticipated by market participants," the minutes said.
http://www.investing.com/news/econo...w-no-plans-for-negative-interest-rates-382988
Bank of Japan minutes show no plans for negative interest rates
Feb 02, 2016 07:41PM ET
Investing.com - A month before the Bank of Japan board surprised markets and introduced negative interest rates, board member agreed that the bank didn't need to consider expanding its aggressive monetary easing as it judged the underlying price trend had been improving steadily despite some weak data, the minutes released Wednesday showed.
"Members noted that, in pursuing QQE, the bank would examine both upside and downside risks to economic activity and prices, and make adjustments as appropriate," the minutes said from at its Dec. 17-18 meeting, referring to the quantitative and qualitative easing launched in April 2013 which so far has failed to boost inflation to the bank's target of stable 2%.
"They then concurred that such adjustments were not necessary at this point, as QQE had been exerting its effects and the underlying trend in
inflation continued to improve steadily."
Only about a month later, the BOJ board decided in a tight 5 to 4 vote to ease policy by adopting negative interest rates to counter unstable stock markets and increased uncertainty over China and other emerging economies. The bank left its target for the monetary base and asset purchases unchanged, however.
"Some members - noting that there was concern among some market participants as to whether it was feasible for the bank to continue purchasing assets - expressed the recognition that the bank should facilitate smoother asset purchases under QQE and dispel such concern by taking measures that would allow it to prepare for the technical obstacle that was anticipated by market participants," the minutes said.
http://www.investing.com/news/econo...w-no-plans-for-negative-interest-rates-382988
Dollar Dumps Most In 7 Years After Dudley Doldrums
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/03/2016
The US Dollar Index is crashing the most since QE1 was unleashed in Q1 2009. Following The Fed's Dudley-isms this morning desperately jawboning some dovishness back into markets, the USD has plunged but the ubiquitous risk-on rally in stocks is very evidently missing as USDJPY soars back above BoJ NIRP levels. Today's plunge is bigger than Dec 2015's ECB fail drop...
As Yen soars almost 3% in the last 24 hours, US Index is plunging against all the majors...
By the most since QE1 was unleashed in Q1 2009...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-03/dollar-dumps-most-7-years-after-dudley-doldrums
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/03/2016
The US Dollar Index is crashing the most since QE1 was unleashed in Q1 2009. Following The Fed's Dudley-isms this morning desperately jawboning some dovishness back into markets, the USD has plunged but the ubiquitous risk-on rally in stocks is very evidently missing as USDJPY soars back above BoJ NIRP levels. Today's plunge is bigger than Dec 2015's ECB fail drop...
As Yen soars almost 3% in the last 24 hours, US Index is plunging against all the majors...
By the most since QE1 was unleashed in Q1 2009...
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"It's Probably Nothing": January Truck Orders Collapse 48%
by Tyler Durden on 02/03/2016 15:53 -0500
We have previously shown just how bad the situation in the US heavy trucking space - trucks with a gross weight over 33K pounds - was most recently in "US Trucking Has Not Been This Bad Since The Financial Crisis" in which we looked at November data and found, that "Class 8 truck net orders at 16,475, were 59% below a year ago and the lowest level since September 2012. This was the weakest November order activity since 2009 and was a major disappointment, coming in significantly below expectations. All of the OEMs, except one, experienced unusually low orders for the month."
For those who missed the proverbial wheels falling of the heavy trucks, so to speak, the charts below do the situation justice:
So with 2015 in the history books, and as we start 2016 where the base effect was supposed to make the annual comps far more palatable, we just got the latest, January data. In short: the drop continues to be one of Great Recession proportions, manifesting in yet another massive 48% collapse in truck orders in the first month of the year as demand appears to have gone in a state of deep hibernation. From Reuters:
U.S. January Class 8 truck orders fell 48 percent on the year, preliminary data from freight transportation forecaster FTR showed, indicating that 2016 could be another weak year for truck makers.
As a reminder, unlike trains, which one can say are used to transport oil and coal, Class 8 trucks make up the backbone of U.S. trade infrastructure and logistics: what they represent is both domestic and global trade. Or in this the devastating collapse thereof.
Should one be concerned by this precipitous drop? Absolutely not: as the Federal Reserve would certainly say "it's probably nothing" and blame it on the weather.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-03/its-probably-nothing-january-truck-orders-collapse-48
by Tyler Durden on 02/03/2016 15:53 -0500
We have previously shown just how bad the situation in the US heavy trucking space - trucks with a gross weight over 33K pounds - was most recently in "US Trucking Has Not Been This Bad Since The Financial Crisis" in which we looked at November data and found, that "Class 8 truck net orders at 16,475, were 59% below a year ago and the lowest level since September 2012. This was the weakest November order activity since 2009 and was a major disappointment, coming in significantly below expectations. All of the OEMs, except one, experienced unusually low orders for the month."
For those who missed the proverbial wheels falling of the heavy trucks, so to speak, the charts below do the situation justice:
U.S. January Class 8 truck orders fell 48 percent on the year, preliminary data from freight transportation forecaster FTR showed, indicating that 2016 could be another weak year for truck makers.
As a reminder, unlike trains, which one can say are used to transport oil and coal, Class 8 trucks make up the backbone of U.S. trade infrastructure and logistics: what they represent is both domestic and global trade. Or in this the devastating collapse thereof.
Should one be concerned by this precipitous drop? Absolutely not: as the Federal Reserve would certainly say "it's probably nothing" and blame it on the weather.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-03/its-probably-nothing-january-truck-orders-collapse-48
bump...so whats the game plan BGOL? still waiting! I got my personal go plan in place if shit goes south, I just have to catch it before it bottoms out...
The hedge fund I work at is @ 3.29% for the first 35 days of the year.
Wells Fargo Insider Says Bank Is Preparing For Emergency Scenario
Submitted by IWB, on February 4th, 2016
A Wells Fargo bank insider, who claims to be a teller, has said that the bank are training their staff to deal with an imminent “emergency scenario”.
The insider reports:
I am a teller at Wells Fargo here in the US this is also my first time using this proxy.
They started training us today for a bank holiday. They didnt mention the word bank holiday, but they did train us for an “emergency scenario”. They told us it’s just a drill. Ive been working here for 3 years, and we never had a drill before..
They said that during an emergency, they would close the doors and only allow 3 people at a time inside of the branch. Also, my branch manager said that we would have armed guards during the emergency.
The last thing they mentioned is that they wont store alot of cash in the vault, since it will be a safety issue….
just wanted to share this with you guys.
Superstation95.com reports:
A call by SuperStation95 to Wells Fargo Corporate Headquarters in San Francisco to verify these claims was met with a terse “no comment.”
Interpretation
If taken at face value and believed, why would Wells Fargo be doing this? What “emergency” could take place that might cause people to swarm to a bank in such numbers that they would have to lock the bank and only allow three customers in at a time?
A bank collapse? An economic collapse? a Currency collapse?
None of these things would be good and if the claims above are true, it is a dangerous signal to the rest of us to get some money out to tie-us-over for a month or so in the event everything shuts down.
In a banking emergency, CREDIT AND DEBIT CARDS WILL NOT WORK. ATM’s will not work. Banks will be closed so that you cannot even enter your own safe deposit box.
Do you have enough cash money on-hand to get through for a couple weeks operating solely on cash? If not, you’d better get that taken care of — fast.
We’re not even talking about making payments on your debts during that time, but rather only using the cash to get food, fuel and such to live! Could you make-it for a month without access to any financial tools or bank cash?
Do you have spare food in the house if stores stop taking credit cards- or the cards don’t work? How will you eat if everything remains cash-only for a month?
These are legitimate questions you should be asking yourself right now. Time may be very short. An economic collapse would take place with lightning speed and by the time you realize what’s happening, people will already be storming the banks and supermarkets trying to stock-up. Waiting until it actually happens is waiting too long; you’ll be too late.
A word to the wise: Prepare.
http://investmentwatchblog.com/wells-fargo-insider-says-bank-is-preparing-for-emergency-scenario/
Submitted by IWB, on February 4th, 2016
A Wells Fargo bank insider, who claims to be a teller, has said that the bank are training their staff to deal with an imminent “emergency scenario”.
The insider reports:
I am a teller at Wells Fargo here in the US this is also my first time using this proxy.
They started training us today for a bank holiday. They didnt mention the word bank holiday, but they did train us for an “emergency scenario”. They told us it’s just a drill. Ive been working here for 3 years, and we never had a drill before..
They said that during an emergency, they would close the doors and only allow 3 people at a time inside of the branch. Also, my branch manager said that we would have armed guards during the emergency.
The last thing they mentioned is that they wont store alot of cash in the vault, since it will be a safety issue….
just wanted to share this with you guys.
Superstation95.com reports:
A call by SuperStation95 to Wells Fargo Corporate Headquarters in San Francisco to verify these claims was met with a terse “no comment.”
Interpretation
If taken at face value and believed, why would Wells Fargo be doing this? What “emergency” could take place that might cause people to swarm to a bank in such numbers that they would have to lock the bank and only allow three customers in at a time?
A bank collapse? An economic collapse? a Currency collapse?
None of these things would be good and if the claims above are true, it is a dangerous signal to the rest of us to get some money out to tie-us-over for a month or so in the event everything shuts down.
In a banking emergency, CREDIT AND DEBIT CARDS WILL NOT WORK. ATM’s will not work. Banks will be closed so that you cannot even enter your own safe deposit box.
Do you have enough cash money on-hand to get through for a couple weeks operating solely on cash? If not, you’d better get that taken care of — fast.
We’re not even talking about making payments on your debts during that time, but rather only using the cash to get food, fuel and such to live! Could you make-it for a month without access to any financial tools or bank cash?
Do you have spare food in the house if stores stop taking credit cards- or the cards don’t work? How will you eat if everything remains cash-only for a month?
These are legitimate questions you should be asking yourself right now. Time may be very short. An economic collapse would take place with lightning speed and by the time you realize what’s happening, people will already be storming the banks and supermarkets trying to stock-up. Waiting until it actually happens is waiting too long; you’ll be too late.
A word to the wise: Prepare.
http://investmentwatchblog.com/wells-fargo-insider-says-bank-is-preparing-for-emergency-scenario/
.
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Shell CEO confirms 10K layoffs due to merger with BG
Layoffs will come from both Shell and BG Group
KHOU Staff, KHOU.com4:53 a.m. CST February 4, 2016
HOUSTON - The CEO of Shell early Thursday confirmed there will be 10,000 layoffs as the company merges with BG Group and deals with lower oil prices.
"The completion of the BG transaction, which we are expecting in a matter of weeks, marks the start of a new chapter in Shell, rejuvenating the company, and improving shareholder returns," CEO Ben Van Beurden stated in a press release. "As we have previously indicated, this will include a reduction of some 10,000 staff and direct contractor positions in 2015-16 across both companies."
The announcement comes after the company reported a 44 percent drop in Q4 earnings.
It's not clear which areas will be affected by the layoffs. Royal Dutch Shell is incorporated in the U.K. and has its headquarters in the Netherlands.
Layoffs will come from both Shell and BG Group
KHOU Staff, KHOU.com4:53 a.m. CST February 4, 2016
HOUSTON - The CEO of Shell early Thursday confirmed there will be 10,000 layoffs as the company merges with BG Group and deals with lower oil prices.
"The completion of the BG transaction, which we are expecting in a matter of weeks, marks the start of a new chapter in Shell, rejuvenating the company, and improving shareholder returns," CEO Ben Van Beurden stated in a press release. "As we have previously indicated, this will include a reduction of some 10,000 staff and direct contractor positions in 2015-16 across both companies."
The announcement comes after the company reported a 44 percent drop in Q4 earnings.
It's not clear which areas will be affected by the layoffs. Royal Dutch Shell is incorporated in the U.K. and has its headquarters in the Netherlands.
After 17 Years, ECB Reveals $547 Billion in Central-Bank Assets
February 6, 2016 — 8:49 AM CST
The euro area’s 19 national central banks hold investment assets worth almost half a trillion euros, according to previously secret information published on Friday by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.
The ECB set out details of the so-called Agreement on Net Financial Assets, a document signed before the introduction of the euro a decade and a half ago that regulated how the previously independent national central banks would manage their holdings of foreign currencies and bonds. While some of those national authorities have still to publish their individual accounts, the ECB said the outstanding amount stood at 490 billion euros ($547 billion) at the end of 2015.
Even though the assets are separate from those built up by the ECB for monetary policy purposes -- such as the current quantitative easing program -- the increase in the total level of holdings during the sovereign debt crisis has led to accusations that national authorities were printing money to serve their own governments, a practice that would be illegal under European law. ANFA sets quotas for each country and aims to prevent national central banks’ investment activity from interfering with monetary policy.
Confidential Document
“Although ANFA was previously a confidential document, the ECB and the national central banks of the Eurosystem took the unanimous decision that publishing the text along with an explanatory document would better serve their commitment to greater transparency,” the ECB said in the statement on its website, made after 9 p.m. Frankfurt time on Friday.
National assets have grown at an average rate of 5 percent per year since the introduction of euro banknotes in 2002, the ECB said, adding that the increase was slower than that for cash in circulation. National central banks will release more details about their ANFA activities in their respective annual reports.
The document also includes an annex on the calculation of the quota system, which regulates how much each national central bank can hold. Before the introduction of the euro, some national institutions had considerable assets, often related to the management of their currencies. The assets now are frequently related to the management of pension funds and other tasks not related to monetary policy.
The quota system became briefly controversial in 2013 when the Irish central bank was allowed to exceed its own limit in order to process a debt swap with the government related to the country’s banking collapse. The deal was criticized by Germany and others for being close to prohibited monetary financing.
“ANFA purchases are entirely a matter for national central banks,” ECB President Mario Draghi said at a press conference on Dec. 3. “I would exclude completely any possibility of monetary financing.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...cb-reveals-547-billion-in-central-bank-assets
February 6, 2016 — 8:49 AM CST
The euro area’s 19 national central banks hold investment assets worth almost half a trillion euros, according to previously secret information published on Friday by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.
The ECB set out details of the so-called Agreement on Net Financial Assets, a document signed before the introduction of the euro a decade and a half ago that regulated how the previously independent national central banks would manage their holdings of foreign currencies and bonds. While some of those national authorities have still to publish their individual accounts, the ECB said the outstanding amount stood at 490 billion euros ($547 billion) at the end of 2015.
Even though the assets are separate from those built up by the ECB for monetary policy purposes -- such as the current quantitative easing program -- the increase in the total level of holdings during the sovereign debt crisis has led to accusations that national authorities were printing money to serve their own governments, a practice that would be illegal under European law. ANFA sets quotas for each country and aims to prevent national central banks’ investment activity from interfering with monetary policy.
Confidential Document
“Although ANFA was previously a confidential document, the ECB and the national central banks of the Eurosystem took the unanimous decision that publishing the text along with an explanatory document would better serve their commitment to greater transparency,” the ECB said in the statement on its website, made after 9 p.m. Frankfurt time on Friday.
National assets have grown at an average rate of 5 percent per year since the introduction of euro banknotes in 2002, the ECB said, adding that the increase was slower than that for cash in circulation. National central banks will release more details about their ANFA activities in their respective annual reports.
The document also includes an annex on the calculation of the quota system, which regulates how much each national central bank can hold. Before the introduction of the euro, some national institutions had considerable assets, often related to the management of their currencies. The assets now are frequently related to the management of pension funds and other tasks not related to monetary policy.
The quota system became briefly controversial in 2013 when the Irish central bank was allowed to exceed its own limit in order to process a debt swap with the government related to the country’s banking collapse. The deal was criticized by Germany and others for being close to prohibited monetary financing.
“ANFA purchases are entirely a matter for national central banks,” ECB President Mario Draghi said at a press conference on Dec. 3. “I would exclude completely any possibility of monetary financing.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...cb-reveals-547-billion-in-central-bank-assets
Japan 10-year bond yield turns negative for 1st time
http://www.cnbc.com/id/103371521
http://www.cnbc.com/id/103371521
This 'Chart of Doom' explains when a global recession will begin
Charles Hugh Smith, The Daily Reckoning
Few question the importance of private credit in the global economy. When households and businesses are borrowing to expand production and buy homes, vehicles, etc., the economy expands smartly.
When private credit shrinks — that is, as businesses and households stop borrowing more and start paying down existing debt — the result is at best stagnation and at worst recession or depression.
Courtesy of Market Daily Briefing, here is The Chart of Doom, a chart of private credit in the five primary economies:
The Daily Reckoning
Why is this The Chart of Doom? It’s fairly obvious that private credit is contracting in Japan and the eurozone and stagnant in the UK.
As for the US: After trillions of dollars in bank bailouts and additional liquidity, and $8 trillion in deficit spending, private credit in the US managed a paltry $1.5 trillion increase in the seven years since the 2008 financial meltdown.
Compare this with the strong growth from the mid-1990s up to 2008.
This chart makes it clear that the sole prop under the global "recovery" since 2008-2009 has been private credit growth in China. From $4 trillion to over $21 trillion in seven years — no wonder bubbles have been inflated globally.
Combine this expansion of private credit in China with the expansion of local government and other state-sector debt (state-owned enterprises, SOEs, etc.) and you have the makings of a global bubble machine.
In other words, both the faltering global "recovery" and all the tenuous asset bubbles around the world depend on a continued hypervelocity rocket rise in China's private credit. What are the odds of this happening? Aren't the signs that this rocket ship has burned its available fuel abundant?
Three out of the five major economies are already experiencing stagnant or negative private credit growth. Three down, two to go. Helicopter money — government-issued "free money" to households — is no replacement for private credit expansion.
Once private credit rolls over in China and the US, the global recession will start its rapid slide down the Seneca Cliff: The global economy could fall farther and faster than pundits expect.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-doom-explains-when-a-global-recession-will-begin-2016-2
Charles Hugh Smith, The Daily Reckoning
Few question the importance of private credit in the global economy. When households and businesses are borrowing to expand production and buy homes, vehicles, etc., the economy expands smartly.
When private credit shrinks — that is, as businesses and households stop borrowing more and start paying down existing debt — the result is at best stagnation and at worst recession or depression.
Courtesy of Market Daily Briefing, here is The Chart of Doom, a chart of private credit in the five primary economies:
Why is this The Chart of Doom? It’s fairly obvious that private credit is contracting in Japan and the eurozone and stagnant in the UK.
As for the US: After trillions of dollars in bank bailouts and additional liquidity, and $8 trillion in deficit spending, private credit in the US managed a paltry $1.5 trillion increase in the seven years since the 2008 financial meltdown.
Compare this with the strong growth from the mid-1990s up to 2008.
This chart makes it clear that the sole prop under the global "recovery" since 2008-2009 has been private credit growth in China. From $4 trillion to over $21 trillion in seven years — no wonder bubbles have been inflated globally.
Combine this expansion of private credit in China with the expansion of local government and other state-sector debt (state-owned enterprises, SOEs, etc.) and you have the makings of a global bubble machine.
In other words, both the faltering global "recovery" and all the tenuous asset bubbles around the world depend on a continued hypervelocity rocket rise in China's private credit. What are the odds of this happening? Aren't the signs that this rocket ship has burned its available fuel abundant?
Three out of the five major economies are already experiencing stagnant or negative private credit growth. Three down, two to go. Helicopter money — government-issued "free money" to households — is no replacement for private credit expansion.
Once private credit rolls over in China and the US, the global recession will start its rapid slide down the Seneca Cliff: The global economy could fall farther and faster than pundits expect.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-doom-explains-when-a-global-recession-will-begin-2016-2
I know prices are always going up. Seems like they are conditioning us for always seeing certain prices. I know prices have always went up as time goes by. When gas went way up the first time prices start going up and they said it was because of the gas and the trucks had to pay more to take the products to the stores. But gas is going down while other prices are going up.
My opinion, for what it's worth, look back at oil prices history, it's been around $30 for decades... When oil went up, after recession of '08, was only cause of manipulation. A certain prez, thought he would manipulate a war and manipulate pricing and corner all of that. But certain good in the world wasn't having that and today we are seeing the change for the good fight against evil.I know prices are always going up. Seems like they are conditioning us for always seeing certain prices. I know prices have always went up as time goes by. When gas went way up the first time prices start going up and they said it was because of the gas and the trucks had to pay more to take the products to the stores. But gas is going down while other prices are going up.
Oil, will stay under $40 for quite some years.
5 Reasons Wall Street is Freaking Out About a Recession.......
and why they might be wrong
FEBRUARY 11, 2016, 9:22 AM EST
Video: http://for.tn/1PMs19d
As Janet Yellen testifies in front of Congress this week, it is safe to say that she is facing the period of greatest economic uncertainty since she took over the role of Fed Chair roughly a year and a half ago.
The Federal Reserve appears to be rethinking its pace of interest rate increases, which most analysts had assumed would sit at 1% by years end, after turmoil in energy and emerging markets has shaken the confidence of American investors in the health of the global economy.
Another reason folks are concerned about the American economy is that we’re currently in the 80th month of this economic expansion, the 3rd longest in history. Janet Yellen has herself said that “expansions don’t die of old age.” And even though neither the Fed, nor most economists, are predicting a recession in the near future, it’s a good bet that the experts at the central bank are taking a look at possible recession triggers. Here are five that we should watch out for.
Oil
Why it's a problem: The collapsing price of oil had economists bullish on growth for a while, as cheaper oil should give consumers more money to spend on other things. But the magnitude of oil's collapse over the past year and a half is nearly unprecedented. As High Frequency Economics' Carl Weinberg writes in a note Wednesday to clients:
The crash of commodity prices by itself is enough to set the global economy into an irrecoverable tailspin, even in the best of times. Contemplate a world that produces 90 million barrels of oil per day, or 32.9 billion per year. Reducing the value of that production by $100 per barrel subtracts $3.3 trillion from world income, which is only $70 trillion or so to begin with. That is a big "ouch."Call that 4-4.5% hit to world income. Now consider how much oil is in the ground—maybe proven reserves are something like 30 years' supply. If so, the drop in oil prices has caused a $100 trillion cut in world wealth . . . and this is just oil. What about iron ore, coal, nickel, copper, gold?
Why you shouldn't be so worried: On the other hand, the most recent example of a similar crash in oil, when prices fell in 1986 from $30 a barrel to $15, didn't significantly affect the economic cycle at that time. The magnitude of today's drop is more severe, and the U.S. economy is more reliant on oil production today, but the '86 example is one that bears paying attention to. The vast majority of economic activity in the U.S. is in the service sector, and if anything, benefits from cheaper energy prices.
Manufacturing
Why it's a problem: The warning signs of a global slowdown are not limited to oil markets. As the Chinese economy has continued to weaken, all kinds of commodities have been falling in price, and manufacturers around the globe have been forced to slash prices in order to compete with a panicked Chinese manufacturing sector that is producing at over-capacity. This has lead to what can only be described as an global manufacturing recession.
Why you shouldn't be so worried: The good news is that manufacturing these days is only a small portion of our economy. So the question for economists in recent months has been whether weakness in the manufacturing sector would spread to services, which account for the vast majority of output in the United States. Unfortunately, the most recent reading of the ISM non-manufacturing index shows growth in services slowing for the third straight month. While the services sector is still expanding, this is a trend we should all keep an eye on.
The Stock Market
Why it's a problem: As you are probably aware, American stock investors have been irritable of late. The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 12% since last July, reflecting, among other things, investor's suspicions about the health of the U.S. economy. The stock market is a leading indicator of economic activity, as recessions are almost always preceded by falling stock values.
Why you shouldn't be so worried: But because stock markets tend to be volatile, a stock market correction can happen even absent a recession. That's why economists also like to look at the bond market, and specifically for whether or not the yield curve has inverted before predicting a recession. A yield curve inversion, in which the short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates, indicates that investors think inflation and economic activity will be significantly slower in the future. And when you are worried about a recession, that's cause for concern.
But some analysts are arguing that central bank stimulus, which has pushed down rates across the yield curve, makes a yield curve inversion almost impossible, because it would mean that long rates would have to hit close to zero.
Corporate Profits
Why its a problem: Even if we don’t have a real recession, we’ve already entered a so-called profit one. Earnings for the companies in the S&P 500 dropped in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to FactSet. That was the third quarter in a row earnings have fallen. What’s more, the corporate profit drop isn’t expected to end soon. On average companies in the S&P 500 are expected to see a drop in their bottom lines for the first half of the year before rebounding slightly in the second half of 2016.
Why you shouldn't be so worried: The silver lining is that profits were up a great deal coming out of the recession, and profits margins are at all-time highs, making bottom line gains, given that the overall economy is growing slowly, harder. Also a lot of the profit drop is coming from one sector: energy. Earnings of companies in the oil and gas industry dropped by nearly 75% in the quarter. But it wasn't only energy that fell. Six of the 10 sectors in the S&P 500 registered profits drops in the fourth quarter. Worse, sales were down too.
Still, a number of companies actually ended up reporting better earnings in the fourth quarter than expected. Before companies started reporting their numbers analysts had been expecting an earnings drop of closer to 5%, worse than the nearly 4% we actually got.
Lending
Why it's a problem: In the Federal Reserve's January survey of loan officers, an increasing number responded that they planned to tighten lending standards on corporate borrowers. It was second month in a row that a growing number of loan officers said that, and highest increase since the fourth quarter of 2009.
What's more, companies are having to pay more to borrow as well. That's particularly true for companies with lower credit ratings. In December, the difference between what companies rated so-called junk and investment grade companies had to pay to borrow rose to just over 7%. Goldman Sachs noted, at the time, that while the spread has gotten that big in the past, most of the time it has a recession has followed.
The same is true for the lending officers survey. Tightening credit doesn't alway lead to a recession. But every recession starts with a tightening of credit.
Why you shouldn't be so worried: The good news is that while the spread had risen, the fact that interest rates are still low means that companies—especially investment-grade firms—are still paying historically low prices to borrow money. What's more, many companies have taken advantage of the recent period of low rates to refinance. So it could be years before they have to pay higher rates. And when it comes consumer loans, lending officers said they were continuing to make credit card, auto and other other loans more available, not less.
and why they might be wrong
FEBRUARY 11, 2016, 9:22 AM EST
Video: http://for.tn/1PMs19d
As Janet Yellen testifies in front of Congress this week, it is safe to say that she is facing the period of greatest economic uncertainty since she took over the role of Fed Chair roughly a year and a half ago.
The Federal Reserve appears to be rethinking its pace of interest rate increases, which most analysts had assumed would sit at 1% by years end, after turmoil in energy and emerging markets has shaken the confidence of American investors in the health of the global economy.
Another reason folks are concerned about the American economy is that we’re currently in the 80th month of this economic expansion, the 3rd longest in history. Janet Yellen has herself said that “expansions don’t die of old age.” And even though neither the Fed, nor most economists, are predicting a recession in the near future, it’s a good bet that the experts at the central bank are taking a look at possible recession triggers. Here are five that we should watch out for.
Oil
Why it's a problem: The collapsing price of oil had economists bullish on growth for a while, as cheaper oil should give consumers more money to spend on other things. But the magnitude of oil's collapse over the past year and a half is nearly unprecedented. As High Frequency Economics' Carl Weinberg writes in a note Wednesday to clients:
The crash of commodity prices by itself is enough to set the global economy into an irrecoverable tailspin, even in the best of times. Contemplate a world that produces 90 million barrels of oil per day, or 32.9 billion per year. Reducing the value of that production by $100 per barrel subtracts $3.3 trillion from world income, which is only $70 trillion or so to begin with. That is a big "ouch."Call that 4-4.5% hit to world income. Now consider how much oil is in the ground—maybe proven reserves are something like 30 years' supply. If so, the drop in oil prices has caused a $100 trillion cut in world wealth . . . and this is just oil. What about iron ore, coal, nickel, copper, gold?
Why you shouldn't be so worried: On the other hand, the most recent example of a similar crash in oil, when prices fell in 1986 from $30 a barrel to $15, didn't significantly affect the economic cycle at that time. The magnitude of today's drop is more severe, and the U.S. economy is more reliant on oil production today, but the '86 example is one that bears paying attention to. The vast majority of economic activity in the U.S. is in the service sector, and if anything, benefits from cheaper energy prices.
Manufacturing
Why it's a problem: The warning signs of a global slowdown are not limited to oil markets. As the Chinese economy has continued to weaken, all kinds of commodities have been falling in price, and manufacturers around the globe have been forced to slash prices in order to compete with a panicked Chinese manufacturing sector that is producing at over-capacity. This has lead to what can only be described as an global manufacturing recession.
Why you shouldn't be so worried: The good news is that manufacturing these days is only a small portion of our economy. So the question for economists in recent months has been whether weakness in the manufacturing sector would spread to services, which account for the vast majority of output in the United States. Unfortunately, the most recent reading of the ISM non-manufacturing index shows growth in services slowing for the third straight month. While the services sector is still expanding, this is a trend we should all keep an eye on.
The Stock Market
Why it's a problem: As you are probably aware, American stock investors have been irritable of late. The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 12% since last July, reflecting, among other things, investor's suspicions about the health of the U.S. economy. The stock market is a leading indicator of economic activity, as recessions are almost always preceded by falling stock values.
Why you shouldn't be so worried: But because stock markets tend to be volatile, a stock market correction can happen even absent a recession. That's why economists also like to look at the bond market, and specifically for whether or not the yield curve has inverted before predicting a recession. A yield curve inversion, in which the short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates, indicates that investors think inflation and economic activity will be significantly slower in the future. And when you are worried about a recession, that's cause for concern.
But some analysts are arguing that central bank stimulus, which has pushed down rates across the yield curve, makes a yield curve inversion almost impossible, because it would mean that long rates would have to hit close to zero.
Corporate Profits
Why its a problem: Even if we don’t have a real recession, we’ve already entered a so-called profit one. Earnings for the companies in the S&P 500 dropped in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to FactSet. That was the third quarter in a row earnings have fallen. What’s more, the corporate profit drop isn’t expected to end soon. On average companies in the S&P 500 are expected to see a drop in their bottom lines for the first half of the year before rebounding slightly in the second half of 2016.
Why you shouldn't be so worried: The silver lining is that profits were up a great deal coming out of the recession, and profits margins are at all-time highs, making bottom line gains, given that the overall economy is growing slowly, harder. Also a lot of the profit drop is coming from one sector: energy. Earnings of companies in the oil and gas industry dropped by nearly 75% in the quarter. But it wasn't only energy that fell. Six of the 10 sectors in the S&P 500 registered profits drops in the fourth quarter. Worse, sales were down too.
Still, a number of companies actually ended up reporting better earnings in the fourth quarter than expected. Before companies started reporting their numbers analysts had been expecting an earnings drop of closer to 5%, worse than the nearly 4% we actually got.
Lending
Why it's a problem: In the Federal Reserve's January survey of loan officers, an increasing number responded that they planned to tighten lending standards on corporate borrowers. It was second month in a row that a growing number of loan officers said that, and highest increase since the fourth quarter of 2009.
What's more, companies are having to pay more to borrow as well. That's particularly true for companies with lower credit ratings. In December, the difference between what companies rated so-called junk and investment grade companies had to pay to borrow rose to just over 7%. Goldman Sachs noted, at the time, that while the spread has gotten that big in the past, most of the time it has a recession has followed.
The same is true for the lending officers survey. Tightening credit doesn't alway lead to a recession. But every recession starts with a tightening of credit.
Why you shouldn't be so worried: The good news is that while the spread had risen, the fact that interest rates are still low means that companies—especially investment-grade firms—are still paying historically low prices to borrow money. What's more, many companies have taken advantage of the recent period of low rates to refinance. So it could be years before they have to pay higher rates. And when it comes consumer loans, lending officers said they were continuing to make credit card, auto and other other loans more available, not less.
Top Russian law enforcer proposes int’l coalition to fight ‘US dictatorship’ and currency dominance
Published time: 12 Feb, 2016 15:29
https://www.rt.com/politics/332286-top-russian-law-enforcer-proposes/
Published time: 12 Feb, 2016 15:29
https://www.rt.com/politics/332286-top-russian-law-enforcer-proposes/
Keiser: Deutsche Bank ‘technically insolvent’, running a ‘ponzi scheme’
Published time: 14 Feb, 2016 22:10
https://www.rt.com/news/332446-keiser-deutsche-bank-technically-insolvent/
Published time: 14 Feb, 2016 22:10
https://www.rt.com/news/332446-keiser-deutsche-bank-technically-insolvent/
Into Recession: US Banks Expecting ‘Disastrous' Earnings Results inQ1
http://sputniknews.com/business/201...expecting-disastrous-earnings-results-1q.html
http://sputniknews.com/business/201...expecting-disastrous-earnings-results-1q.html
This thread was started almost 5 months ago and i still have yet to see this so-called recession that has "started". 
This thread was started almost 5 months ago and i still have yet to see this so-called recession that has "started".
Those in power will do everything to kick the can down the road. Until it becomes unbearable. Luke the 2007 recessionThis thread was started almost 5 months ago and i still have yet to see this so-called recession that has "started".
Before the year is over we will drop over 750 points on the S&P Or 30%..... Consider that insider info. This is the last hoorah for the next 24 months.......
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