They got some guys that can put the ball in the basket. But they have very little support. Crapped out in the draft too.
Good morning! Let’s hypothetically panic about the Memphis Grizzlies.
http://cbsprt.co/1PgmWXf
Let's not totally overreact, but the Grizzlies do have real problems
By Matt Moore / NBA writer
November 06, 2015 07:04 PM ET
The Memphis Grizzlies have been atrocious vs. really good teams. That's the simplest way to put it. The Grizzlies aren't 0-6, though from how people are reacting, you'd think it. They're 3-3, with OK-to-not-great wins over the Pacers, Nets, and the Kings without DeMarcus Cousins. Conversely, they have lost to the Cavaliers by 30, the Blazers by 19, and of course to the Golden State Warriors by 50.
There is no way to look at this situation and go "no big deal." Memphis starting out 3-3 with losses to three good teams? Sure. Losses in which they look like they have major roster issues? You can work those out. Losing by a combined 99 points?
There is no spin even the bluest of bears can put on that to make it sound like anything but horrible. The Grizzlies have major concerns defensively, offensively, in effort, execution, and surprisingly, heart. And now there are reports that Dave Joerger's job could be in jeopardy.
So let's take a look at the elements that have contributed to this disastrous start for one of the West's best teams over the last five years, and what it means for them going forward.
Dave Joerger, Memphis Grizzlies coach
Season W-L West standings Playoff result
2015-16* 3-3 9th N/A
2014-15 55-28 5th Lost W. Conf. Semis
2013-14 50-32 7th Lost W. Conf. 1st Rnd.
Career 108-63 N/A N/A
*Six games into 2014-15 season
SO TELL ME THE GOOD NEWS.
I'm going to briefly go through the things that have to be mentioned in any discussion like this which constitute the "bright side" -- if there can be such a thing for a team blown out by 99 points in three losses. These things are at once true and important, and yet do not compensate for the number of no-good terrible things going on with the team. It can be both. But very quickly.
A. It's early. They are six games in, and the playoffs are over five months away. Three losses in November stand out more because of how the narratives play out, but three losses in January get glossed over.
B. The losses count the same. Here's the difference for playoff contention in a 50-point-loss and a one-point-loss: nothing. They count the absolute same, and if Memphis makes the playoffs in the West, they have done enough to justify not making major changes and not completely bailing on the team's prospects short or long-term.
C. The losses were to teams that you would expect to blow teams out. Cleveland was on a back-to-back road game... but it was the first two games of the season so the fatigue factor doesn't play in as much. They were angry after losing a game to Chicago they should have won, and Memphis is 1-14 in home openers the past fifteen years. Oh, and they have Kevin Love and LeBron James. The Blazers have the second best effective field goal percentage in the league, and feature the No. 2 and No. 3 players in pull-up shooting in the league in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. The Warriors are the best team in the league and have blown out everyone but the Clippers. Losing by 50 is a disaster, but losing by 50 to the Warriors in Oracle is the most understandable disaster there is.
D. Getting in a hole in the West is tough... most years. Houston has started painfully slow, San Antonio the same, OKC is on a 3-game losing streak, Utah's been inconsistent, so the West isn't exactly leaving Memphis woefully behind at 3-3. Even if the problem continues, Memphis is good enough to rattle off two good months and be ready for the postseason. If anything, last year was a strong sign that hot starts can lead to late season malaise for the Grizzlies, who were one of the best teams in the league through last January, only to slump the last three months of the year which resulted in their having to go on the road to face the Warriors in the second round.
That's it. That's all the good news, and if you notice, absolutely nothing about that has to do with the team itself.
IS ANYTHING NOT BROKEN?
No. The Grizzlies are 26th in offense per 100 possessions and 20th in defense per 100 possessions, 29th in TrueShooting percentage (factoring threes and free throws) and 20th in rebound percentage. They're fouling a lot (19th in opponent free throw rate), letting opponents shoot well (26th in opponent effective field goal percentage), can't run (23rd in points in transition), can't score inside (23rd in points in the paint), and can't hit from the perimeter (26th in 3-point attempts, 28th in 3-point percentage).
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
It also does not take any of these stats to watch the Grizzlies and see that their defensive trust is broken. Plays routinely end with an opponent's made 3-pointer and a lot of head hanging and shaking on the part of the Grizzlies. They look broken and sad, and those issues are way worse than any number can indicate.
SO WHAT'S THE PROBLEM?
The big concern, if you're going to just get your rocket boots on and go for a massive leap in conclusions, is that this team has "expired." Every great team has an expiration point, where they've simply been around one another too long. It happens all the time in life. A person stays in a job for seven years, and decides they need a change. Same thing happens with teams, especially since they have to spend every day around one another for months and months on end.
The best example of this?
Detroit Pistons (2001-2009)
Season W-L East standings Playoff result
2008-09 39-43 3rd Lost E. Conf. 1st Rnd.
2007-08 59-23 1st Lost E. Conf. Finals
2006-07 53-29 1st Lost E. Conf. Finals
2005-06 64-18 1st Lost E. Conf. Finals
2004-05 54-28 1st Lost NBA Finals
2003-04 54-28 2nd Won NBA Finals
2002-03 50-32 1st Lost E. Conf. Finals
2001-02 50-32 1st Lost E. Conf. Semis
Source: Basketball Reference:
That Pistons team went to six straight conference championships, an incredible run of consistency and excellent basketball. Then LeBron James and the 2009 Cavs team destroyed them, and just like that, it was over. Memphis didn't play in the East in the mid-2000's, an insanely easier stretch than the Western Conference death gauntlet the Grizzlies have faced year after year, and they haven't won a title, but they have had that kind of consistency. Look at those win totals. It's pretty similar to what Memphis has put together.
However, once it's over, it's over. The Grizzlies' age has been exaggerated to a degree, but they are old, and those players aren't going to somehow turn a corner. They haven't integrated the young players on the roster. They're still all-in on Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. If the run is over, you won't know it until they either fail to make the playoffs or get destroyed in the first round. When it happens, it will be sad and hard to pivot toward a future.
OK, SO ... SHOULD THEY BLOW IT UP AND GET AHEAD OF THE DISASTER?
This is where the overreactions have come calling like the Dementors in Harry Potter. The idea basically goes like this: they don't have the shooting required to beat any of the really good teams in this modern NBA, so even though they are tough and admirable and disciplined, it's not enough. Even if they do manage to right this ship, they're still not going to be good enough, and if this is the end of the Grit-Grind run, better to get ahead of it.
So people start throwing out "Should they trade Marc Gasol/Mike Conley?!" -- and if any team trades one of its two best players six games into the season, they probably have bigger problems than a 50-point drubbing at the hands of the Warriors.
Beyond all the caveats in that bright side section above, there are two points to remember:
A. Memphis can actually reload without rebuilding. Mike Conley is in a contract year, and I wrote about his free agent prospects here. In short: sure, it's possible he leaves, and a meltdown year definitely makes it more likely, but the good money is still surely on him re-signing. In that event, the Grizzlies still have a top-flight point guard and a top-flight center in Marc Gasol for the long haul. Whatever the Grizzlies do in the future, the plan very much involves both Gasol and Conley, and there are a lot worse situations.
There are factors that can disrupt that, of course. If the whole thing goes south and Gasol does what his brother did and demands a trade to a contender, that could change. That pretty much flies in the face of every personality attribute we know about Gasol at this point, but we'll put it on the board for giggles. Same with Conley. Mike Conley is about as far from a "prima donna who demands a trade to a big market contender" as it gets, but he and Gasol also hate losing.
If we assume that both are not going to overreact and will instead trust the organization that has built a winning culture around them, Memphis could pivot forward with a new roster construction focused more on shooting and offense built around Gasol and Conley's brilliant passing and defense. There is a vision of a high-volume, well-oiled offensive machine with those two that just isn't possible with the current construction.
B. This run means more than just winning a title. This team made pro basketball matter in Memphis. That has a greater cultural value than wins or losses. Fans want a title, that's what fans do. However, Zach Randolph, Tony Allen and the rest of this team has instilled a spirit in Memphis that hasn't just helped on the court, it's become a force in the community. The Grizzlies host events for at-risk youth, offer tickets in return for turning in illegal weapons, and Zach Randolph pays for thousands of residents' utilities in the winter.
This team has earned a place in the community that is more important than however many games they push the Warriors to or what round they advance to in the playoffs. So any decision about the future is debated as if it doesn't have impacts on the culture or people of Memphis, and it does.
C. A total rebuild makes no sense, and not just because of how good this team has been. The Grizzlies have had disastrous lottery luck outside of 2009 when they had the No. 2 overall pick... and drafted Hasheem Thabeet when James Harden and Stephen Curry were on the board. There's new ownership, a new organization, and a smarter awareness, but to give up a core that has been so successful in the hopes of what, starting over with a lucky draw? That's lunacy. The lottery and the draft represent the best option for teams that have no way to sustained success. It should also be the last possible option and used only by those teams that are truly without hope of contention for the playoffs... not just the title.
SO IF THEY CAN'T BLOW IT UP, SHOULD THEY MAKE A TRADE?
This is the part that's really tricky. Every NBA League Pass addict with a Twitter account says "they need to get a shooter." As if this player will magically appear before the Grizzlies and they won't have to trade anyone of significance for him. This, of course, is nonsense.
Here are the options:
1. Make a small trade and hope it pays off big time. You're seeing this already with the Mario Chalmers trade talk. Chalmers gives them a conceptual shooter (who has shot terribly the past two seasons, mind you) and an offensive upgrade that you can play without giving up massive points defensively. This is the type of player that GM Chris Wallace is likely trying to acquire. The Grizzlies have been opportunistic over the years. They bought low on Courtney Lee, and it worked out great. They bought low on Jeff Green, that didn't work out so much. (Green is basically the scapegoat for all of Memphis' problems, which is like blaming the lawnmower for not being able to thresh a field; the lawnmower may be poorly designed and not do its job well but you still need a tractor). The Grizzlies are likely aiming for "help" and not "a solution" for the problems that exist.
2. Make a huge trade and end the Grit-Grind era. Zach Randolph is 34 years old. He does not shoot threes, is not fast, and is not a great defender. So how much value could he have? GMs are still going to look at him as a major upgrade. Randolph is the only player outside of Gasol and Conley who can fetch the kind of reconfiguration that Memphis would need for an overhaul, hopefully for either a dynamic scoring two-guard or a true stretch four who can hit from range. So if you're not going to trade Conley or Gasol, your only option would be to trade Randolph.
Why not do this? Well outside of the previously mentioned fact that Memphis as a city and organization loves Randolph and he is the most likely of any player to have a statue outside FedEx Forum one day, and outside of how many teams have gone gaga over trying to replicate the Warriors as if that combination of players is replicable in any sense, you also hurt the team's culture. Randolph provides that toughness, that belief. You can argue about whether Randolph, Conley or Tony Allen is the heart and soul of the team, but they're all very much a part of it. The Grizzlies have played without heart in three games, but there is a darker timeline on the other side of trading Zach Randolph.
Otherwise you're looking at trying to package Jeff Green's expiring contract, Courtney Lee, and whatever other player they can scramble together. Is that going to get the player they need?
This is the biggest issue with the "make a trade after six games, you fools!" idea. You know what Memphis needs to win the title? Klay Thompson. They need a dynamic, light-'em-up, human-torch level scorer who can also defend at a high level.
Now, this is just me speculating here, I haven't checked with anyone in the Warriors' front office, but I'm pretty sure they're not going to send Klay Thompson to the Grizzlies.
Even if you try to find a "value" guy of that ilk, like Khris Middleton or Tobias Harris (both of whom fit what Memphis needs exactly), Memphis would have to sacrifice way too much to even get in the conversation. Oh, and have I mentioned that Memphis can't trade its 2016 first-rounder (already owed to Denver) nor their 2017 or 2018 (since they owe their 2018 to Boston and can't trade consecutive picks)?
IF THEY CAN'T BLOW IT UP OR MAKE A TRADE, WHAT THEN? JUST HOPE?
Memphis has to take the long-term view. Eventually the Grit-Grind era will have to come to an end. The ideal scenario there is that Randolph retires with the team and they move forward from there. You can take Conley and Gasol, target a good-shooting two-guard and a stretch-four and you suddenly have a much more progressive, modern NBA team. Those two are good enough to give you a foundation going forward. However, as far as this team, right now, getting to the title? That was always going to take a perfect storm of luck, as I wrote this summer. Instead of that perfect storm, the tornado has formed right over Memphis and they are getting shredded. The options are panic and run headlong into a future that may be considerably worse than this, or stay the course and risk simply being an also-ran as the fans grow more and more frustrated with a team unable to adapt to how the NBA has evolved.
It's not a great situation, and it mostly involves hope.
NOT TO BE THAT GUY ... BUT WHAT ABOUT THE COACH?
Again, this gets really tricky. It does not take much to figure out that the relationship between Dave Joerger and the players doesn't always seem great. Is it worse than it is for 80 percent of the teams in the league? That's entirely subjective for anyone outside of the locker room. It's not John Kuester or Brian Shaw in terms of a revolt, but there seems to be tension, and the lack of effort causes problems there.
Joerger also said, openly, on Thursday night, that the team "looks a little old and slow." That's true, but saying it is kind of putting something bad out there for a team struggling with confidence.
Here's the thing: Joerger has always had struggles in the regular season, whether it was the offensive trouble in 2013-2014 when he first took over, or the malaise last year. However, he's always done awesome work in the playoffs. He's won the coaching matchup in most of the rounds he's coached in. He had the Warriors on the ropes until the adjustment to simply not guard Tony Allen, which isn't something that Joerger could adjust for. (Not playing Allen makes the team worse, playing Allen makes the team beatable. It was an impossible problem to fix.)
So he's got playoff success and regular season frustration to go along with no title or Western Conference Finals appearance. So yeah, his seat is indeed getting warm.
Firing Joerger is the only thing the team can do to try and change the vibe and course without disrupting the roster and putting themselves in further debt in terms of long-term assets. It's been six games, and that sounds crazy, but if you feel so pressured to make a change after six games, the only easy answer is "fire the coach." That's reality in the NBA, but it won't solve the big-picture issues with Memphis in terms of title contention.
MAN, THIS ALL SOUNDS PRETTY DEPRESSING.
Of course it does. They just lost three games by 99 points. This entire article is based on the premise that this start isn't just a fluke, that it's not just something they have to work through. The best option right now is to give this another three months and see where you're at. A lot can change in three months. But with Memphis, there's a sense of urgency that doesn't exist with teams like Houston (who's had a worse start) or any of the other top Western teams outside of Golden State. So here we are. There is one piece of good news I have not brought up, though.
WHAT COULD THAT POSSIBLY BE?
Everyone's already writing off Memphis, spouting doom and gloom way too early and forgetting all the real success they've had the past five years.
That's exactly where they want to be.
