6 Reasons This Could Be GSP's Last Fight
#1: What else is there left to prove?
A GSP win would be his 19th in the UFC - setting a new all-time UFC record. If GSP hypothetically continued fighting, who are his likely opponents? Two names: Rory MacDonald (if he beats Robbie Lawler on Saturday) and Carlos Condit. I know Dana White said this week that he foresees GSP and MacDonald (training partners) would break their vows and fight for the belt - but I say slim chance. Not going to happen.
So how about GSP vs. Condit? Been there, done that. GSP already survived Condit once. The champ had to pick himself up off the canvas in the fight and, despite getting his hand raised, looked tremendously beat-up afterward. A rematch with Condit would not generate mega-bucks so I say GSP will lack incentive. There's no big upside, to his wallet or his legacy, for GSP in a Condit rematch.
Real quick: Anybody else at 170 you think GSP is chomping at the bit to fight? Can't think of one, can you? Me neither.
So it seems very likely that GSP retires from the 170-pound division and vacates the UFC belt (leaving MacDonald, who has said he wants a title shot by mid-next year, to potentially fight Carlos Condit for the UFC welterweight title).
#2: So the theory goes, as GSP cryptically mentioned during his interview with Kevin Iole … GSP will leave the 170-pound division and just compete in UFC Superfights. He'll move up a weight class, or down.
Ah, I too was so tempted to buy into the Superfight thing. It stumped me for awhile. Really did. Anderson Silva vs. GSP. In Dallas. 100,000 fans, right? Biggest UFC event in history. That was the MMA fantasy, right?
I'll tell you what - don't see it happening. For one thing, contrary to him being a 2-to-1 underdog, I believe Chris Weidman will beat Anderson Silva a second time in December. Even under that scenario, Silva vs. GSP could still be made, and would still generate strong pay-per-view numbers, but it might not make GSP the crazy millions it would probably require to convince him to jump a weight class and fight against the UFC's all-time greatest fighter, who walks around at more than 215 pounds to GSP's 195. Remember, GSP has previously expressed an unwillingness to move up and fight Anderson Silva. That's a big reason the fight never happened. I don't see that changing unless Silva just really checks out, loses his mojo and GSP sees tremendous vulnerability. Oh, and if Silva loses to Weidman, then yet another UFC legend is going to be hounded with retirement questions (you can bet on that).
One other thing: Could you see GSP vs. Chris Weidman?
Again, I say no. GSP is very familiar with Weidman, who also trains Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under John Donaher. In fact, GSP picked Weidman to beat Silva in their first fight. Which means GSP knows how talented and awesome Chris Weidman is. Weidman is stylistically a bad matchup for GSP. The bullying GSP got away with at 170 won't work against a bigger, stronger and longer phenom like Weidman. So I highly doubt GSP has any interest in a fight with Weidman.
So, rack your brain: Who at 185 would GSP be interested in fighting? He could always do what veteran fighters so often do - fighting the so-called "fights that make sense," which is code for "fights that make me the most money but aren't against the best guys." I'm betting this scenario won't unfold because I just don't see those kinds of dangling carrots - say a Chael Sonnen vs. GSP fight - motivating GSP at this stage of the game.
Do you think GSP wants to move up and fight Vitor Belfort any time soon? I personally don't think anybody is eager to fight the Brazilian steamroller right now.
#3: The competition is catching up.
Yes GSP has ruled the 170-pound division for 6 of the past 7 years but the gap is closing quickly. There is now tremendous depth in the division with MacDonald, Condit, Jake Ellenberger, Jake Shields coming alive again and even a dark horse like Matt Brown who has been running dudes over.
In the old days GSP dominated opponents and left the cage virtually unscathed. In his past two fights, against Condit and Nick Diaz, the champ has left the cage with a marked up face. And he tore the ACL in his knee before that. So GSP is even more in touch with his own mortality these days. He is a man of conscience and extraordinary as a strategist. He is always two steps ahead of every one else. He is an intellectual nerd (who knows a lot about dinosaurs, for instance) and values his brain power. So he's not the type who is going to stick around too long and wait to be knocked out a few times (like most other champions) before he retires.
#4: Go out on top.
Precious few sports legends ever do. In fact, I have trouble naming the ones who do. John Elway and his two Super Bowl titles jumps to mind. Then Ray Lewis last year with the Baltimore Ravens. But I can talk for hours about the pro athletes who stayed too long, sometimes hurting their image.
GSP, however, is the kind of visionary who is smart enough to go out on top while his body, brain and image are still at their peak. And he's got the millions to walk away whenever he wants.
GSP recently made some intriguing comments during interviews.
Consider the champ's comments recently to Yahoo Sports writer Kevin Iole:
"There are a lot of things I can't tell you," GSP told Iole with a smile creasing his face. "But I have plans. I'm ready for other things. We'll see what happens. Moving up, moving down, fighting some other guy. I have big plans, but I can't tell you everything. I just can't give all of my secrets today."
Also consider GSP's recent comments to MMA Fighting:
"I don't know when I'm going to retire," GSP told the outfit. "It could be in one week, it could be five years or 10 years. Right now, I'm really happy with what I do. I feel very happy, very motivated and I'm planning my next fight, not my retirement. People who love me, they want me to retire on top. It's normal. Every time I step inside the Octagon, it's a big risk and of course they want me to retire on top. But, the truth is, I'm the one who will decide about that."
Lot of hedging there. And I suspect the "it could be in one week" line is what will transpire.
#5: GSP doesn't need the money, folks; he is likely is worth tens of millions of dollars.
He is a global icon whose reputation is good as gold. The guy has the potential to easily make millions more in sponsorships, business deals and in movies (he's scheduled to appear in his third movie next year). A lot of other pro fighters don't have a Plan B, which is why they keep fighting. St. Pierre has options galore that don't involve getting punched in the head or limping around the house for weeks.
#6: For his past three fights GSP has been bombarded with the same questions about retirement and opponents voicing suspicions about the champ and PEDs.
It's become a circus. GSP is smart enough to know that if he is going to retire then it's best to keep reporters in the dark until after your fight. Imagine if GSP did tell reporters leading up to a fight that this was his last one. That would mean even greater distractions from the media. So don't expect the champ to give us forewarning of his last fight.
Retirement will mean a lot more peace and quiet for the soft-spoken and very private Canadian. It means people forever remembering you as champion rather than remembering how you got knocked out in your last fight. Which is how it ends for the vast majority of fighting legends.