***Tripster's 2008 Investments (Ongoing thread)***

[kjxxxx]

Unfortunately I have some DIA and GRMN puts. My ass was being greedy and didn't take my small profits on the 2 days I got it last week, not cut my losses quickly when it reversed.

So I am hoping for a pullback so I can get out. I am still expecting the market to tank though. I am expecting people to snap out of this giddy ass, euphoric trading and wake up and realized that nothing was really all that great last week. I am fearful that it will have run too far and the fall will not be that significant before expiration.

I would appreciate any feedback from the fam. I already had received some good information. I think the folks on this thread will really be able to help out with good feedback.

http://www.youtube.com/accendotraders

I should be uploading this weeks' Weekend Wrap Up report in about an hour.

Also, does anybody have a loophole/workaround for youtube's 10 minute rule.

Thanks again,


Oh this week, watch for the markets to finally break higher above the downtrend channel. For the DOW, we need to get above 12700 or 1750 otherwise, we are back to the bottom of the channel. This week also kicks off the new earnings season with Alcoa after the close. We have FOMC minutes on Tuesday and a lot of Retail Same Stores Data to come out. Last week retail looked strong but the sector is rolling over perhaps in anticipation of bad #'s. JCPenny's already put out lower forecas.

 

[kjxxxx]

Fellows here is a pretty active live trading chat board. There is someone there 27/6.

http://www.interactivebrokers.com/html/chat/traders_chat_fg.html

Here is the conversation going on on there right now. Sunday April 6th 11:30pm

I am Ki

>> Ki has joined room #IB_Traders_Chat
Welcome to Interactive Brokers' chat room.
solargod> i think you'll make some good money tomorrow
solargod> are you going to hold through Alcoa earnings?
fundomax> well I traded YM when it went up, then got back in when it dipped, only with 1 contract
fundomax> depends on how high it goes before
fundomax> think alcoa will move the mrket?
fundomax> Is alcoa before opening or after clossing?
solargod> I think they usually announce after
solargod> And they are one of the smallest Dow components, so I think tomorrow's trading will be optimistic
fundomax> yeah, that is my take too
solargod> Tuesday's trading could be influenced by AA, but I think the bias would be bullish. I.E. earnings in line would be great. Even an earnings disappointment won't tank the market though, unless it's unbelievably bad.
solargod> cool
fundomax> I agree, I'm not sure earning misses will tank the market, investors are starting to look past the recession
fundomax> whick is mostly all talk for now
fundomax> dollar looks like it could strengthen here also
solargod> yeah, even moderate earnings misses will be seen as "priced in" and looking in the rearview mirror
solargod> we'll look past that to the fact that credit is easing and the economy could pick up in a few months and earnings will pick up again soon
solargod> of course, that won't happen, and the recession will end up being bad, but for now we can trade the mass delusion
fundomax> you have strong opinions on that, I'm more bullish
fundomax> brb
solargod> I'm surprised by the this Sunday rally. I hope I can get more contracts lower.
fundomax> I think this recession is way overhyped
solargod> Well, I might change my mind about that when the time comes.
solargod> All I know is that for now the idea that it's blue skies above is going to get only more popular
solargod> When everyone's bullish again, maybe it will be time to short again
solargod> Credit was the major risk factor, and the Fed did a good job of fixing that in mid-march (which is what made me staunchly bullish). But the credit recovery may only be temporary

 

[TCapone]

I am still expecting the market to tank though. I am expecting people to snap out of this giddy ass, euphoric trading and wake up and realized that nothing was really all that great last week. I am fearful that it will have run too far and the fall will not be that significant before expiration.

The next couple of days are important because the Dow will retest the 12,700 - 850 range I'm going to trade from that be it long on a breakout past 13,000 or short on a dip to 12,000.

 

[Notorious P.I.M.P.]

Sun Apr 6

More than 50 percent chance of U.S. recession: Greenspan

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080406/bs_nm/greenspan_recession_dc

 

[popozudalvr]

my buddy has been waiting on it forever too . Another newbie liked zagg but after reading their information on their website he isnt has excited about them as he was before. I like the volitility i see on them but again im not the pro here. Well this week my negative performers and other sideways stuff comes in for another play on coinz/w ill look at the other suggestions a well.

Is there a way to work with the settling funds deals? I hate to get caught in a buy and being stuck just because funds havent "settled"? any tips other than play 50% of my funds in at a time?

can't fight t-3, the clearing process for trades into cash in most cases will be 3 days, some stocks(higher prices) when you sell offer you the funds to be reused ASAP.,,,but for the most art you get stuck waiting,,,all the more reason to build up the account further, so you have more cash at any desired time.,...Coinw i do believe has a dividend distribution on 4/14, so for every 20 you have you may get 1 additional share..As shown in the past charts..COIN has outperformed EVERY AG stock I can think of, to not view that as a MAJOR BULLISH symbol would be a mistake.I'd put some COIN investment aside & leave it, it could be a big winner,,

 

[offwork]

Im liking the slow creep back up on all of the picks.Im needed PAL to make a recovery. I hope that gives some staying power in these turbulent times.

 

[456.North.side]

Im liking the slow creep back up on all of the picks.Im needed PAL to make a recovery. I hope that gives some staying power in these turbulent times.

Im with you on that one im watching it too hehe

 

[popozudalvr]

Im with you on that one im watching it too hehe

PAL is moving back up in silence, low volume, under the radar..

very much helps that metals are up micely today.
Palladium at 455...as palladium goes so will PAL & SWC, my bet is on Palladium, & PAL will follow...just time ...

http://www.kitcosilver.com/
check out the correlation movements of the 3
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$PALL,PAL,SWC

 

[popozudalvr]

PAL is moving back up in silence, low volume, under the radar..

very much helps that metals are up micely today.
Palladium at 455...as palladium goes so will PAL & SWC, my bet is on Palladium, & PAL will follow...just time ...

http://www.kitcosilver.com/
check out the correlation movements of the 3
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$PALL,PAL,SWC

Should be interesting to see how PAL can hold these gains..the market is selling off after a great traders run, OILS/AGS are all trending lower, PAL @ 6.3, w/ palladium firm at 455 & plat over 2000. PAL needs to stabilze, but like ive mentioned before, it will follow Palladium, so if you're betting on PAL its best to just know whats going on in the Palladium markets, I suspect by June/July when winter hits in S/A PAL will retest the 8-9 levels, as Palladium prices should be over 500 by then...we'll see

 

[offwork]

Should be interesting to see how PAL can hold these gains..the market is selling off after a great traders run, OILS/AGS are all trending lower, PAL @ 6.3, w/ palladium firm at 455 & plat over 2000. PAL needs to stabilze, but like ive mentioned before, it will follow Palladium, so if you're betting on PAL its best to just know whats going on in the Palladium markets, I suspect by June/July when winter hits in S/A PAL will retest the 8-9 levels, as Palladium prices should be over 500 by then...we'll see

Well thats good to hear. I am optimistic PAL has to retouch 9. Even more so now because you seem to think so a lot sooner than I did. Probably because I had not considered winter in S.A. is sooner than ours. Pardon me. What im betting on is that PAL reaches $50 or more. Maybe not this year but eventually could. Hopefully.

 

[456.North.side]

I saw my limit order kick in on coinz @ 5.74 but im stuck til wednesday on it hehe but oh well. I still have 100 shares of pal so ill watch it for that run up to 9's. I'm looking at those other picks too.

 

[popozudalvr]

Well thats good to hear. I am optimistic PAL has to retouch 9. Even more so now because you seem to think so a lot sooner than I did. Probably because I had not considered winter in S.A. is sooner than ours. Pardon me. What im betting on is that PAL reaches $50 or more. Maybe not this year but eventually could. Hopefully.

The funny thing is, the potential exists for PAL & SWC to reach very substantial high prices IF the PMG markets see significant supply issues & production dampens through the year. My personal hope is that SA just can't keep up on power demands come winter,and Platinum prices stay strong on shortage on production & continued strong demand in deficit supplies....then, it is my assumption that the gap between PT & PD will trim. I see metal prices all as bullish, to me it is quite possible that we'll see PT hit $2800-3000/oz this year, it will be a major hit to the jewelry industry, but there is enough industrial use to buffer the loss on jewelry, then you'd assume that PD would become favored at lower prices, the formation of the recent Palladium Alliance Intn'l (http://www.luxurypalladium.com/) to market Palladium as a jewelry metal (which it is heavily used & preferred in China) will also cause PD to have a new use..Palladium is so thinly traded that it is like having a low float stock, major fluctuations/manipulations, but in the end supply & demand will prevail, If PD can become the "new" platinum standard, then in years to come it will inhabit PT's old price range in the 800-1300/oz area, while PT exceeds $3000, and then surely the stocks will fly, I'm not sure I'll be in them for the lenght to see that, but I do expect to see PAL over $12 in 2008, I may be wrong, but I've placed my bets..

The word palladium, just has to become a bit more household, like platinum is...and certainly...$50 on PAL (if management does the right things) could very well be possible...we'll see soon enough...


http://www.fin24.com/articles/default/display_article.aspx?ArticleId=1518-1793_2300874

"Platinum seen supported

Platinum rose to $2 005/2 015 from its US finish of $1 985/1 995 an ounce on Thursday, when it rose more than 2% on worries that South Africa's state utility could not meet electricity demand from precious metals miners.

"The ongoing power supply concerns impacting South African production continue to underpin prices," Barclays Capita said in a daily market report.

Implats, the world's second biggest platinum producer, said South Africa did not boost its power allotment to 95% from 90%.

Government officials said on March 6 that mines would be able to increase their power consumption to 95% of normal use but the company said not all mines got the higher allotment.

South Africa's power crisis may last many years unless there is a sustained drop in electricity demand in Africa's largest economy, state power utility Eskom said this week.

Supply worries, caused by mining disruption in main producer South Africa, sparked speculative buying and propelled the price to record high of $2 290 an ounce on March 4. "

 

[offwork]

PoPo you mentioned earlier your concern of TITNs behaviour. Well its off to the races again! Over $21. Are you seeing a wild swing back down. I am putting in a stop loss around 20.50. Damn I gotta check how close to that earnings call...

 

[kjxxxx]

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

 

[popozudalvr]

PoPo you mentioned earlier your concern of TITNs behaviour. Well its off to the races again! Over $21. Are you seeing a wild swing back down. I am putting in a stop loss around 20.50. Damn I gotta check how close to that earnings call...

Yea the volume seems less this time through, the last move up was on substantial volume increase, I think it will definitely give back some gains, any profit is a good profit, so use stops if you have to to lock in...

 

[jagu]

For those who slept on Visa, you can still get in. I bought a good amount at around 57 and it almost touched 68 today, It is going up steadily but slowly, which is fine by me.


For the experts, GRMN got degraded today and it dropped to 48. They are coming up with the NUVIPHONE in the fall before XMAS, so I am expecting good performance and movement in the stocks. Would you guys buy GRMN now?

 

[offwork]

Yea the volume seems less this time through, the last move up was on substantial volume increase, I think it will definitely give back some gains, any profit is a good profit, so use stops if you have to to lock in...

Thanks. As TITN eased down from the days high I got out taken out at $21. Might get to that 22 but then again might see 17 again.

Jag GRMN was wondering about GRMN myself.

 

[popozudalvr]

Thanks. As TITN eased down from the days high I got out taken out at $21. Might get to that 22 but then again might see 17 again.

Jag GRMN was wondering about GRMN myself.

Nice trade,,also might want to keep an eye n GENC & HOGS

 

[offwork]

Nice trade,,also might want to keep an eye n GENC & HOGS

I had HOGS on my watchlist since you last mentioned it. Funny thing just this morning a old head was telling me how chinese have a way of cooking pigs feet that is healthy for women. Nothing to do with HOGS or stocks just a weird conversation. So is HOGS a go right now? Im gonna checkout GENC. Peace.

 

[kjxxxx]

I had HOGS on my watchlist since you last mentioned it. Funny thing just this morning a old head was telling me how chinese have a way of cooking pigs feet that is healthy for women. Nothing to do with HOGS or stocks just a weird conversation. So is HOGS a go right now? Im gonna checkout GENC. Peace.

I had been lying dormant because I had taken a huge hit in my account and wasn't trading much and also I had started trading futures.

I am back into options again. So I look into some of the analysis stuff a little again. I would not touch HOG

HOG is bad in bad times. People don't run out and buy a HOG when they are facing hard times. HOG also suffers from credit problems also. People can't qualify for loans to buy expensive hogs.

-----------------------------

Gencor Industries Inc. (GENC) is in a pretty good sector. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=GENC
It's had a pretty good run this year and if the global growth story is still strong then they should continue to benefit from it. They are a global company and have manufacturing facilities, servicing North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. So as long as countries have more infrastructure build out they should still be ok. You could always keep it as a long term play. I am a bit disappointed that a company that old didn't pay dividend though.

 

[popozudalvr]

I think you're thinking HOGS is Harley Davidson(it is HOG),,,and it is NOT...HOGS happens to be a Chinese company that is in the business of PORK, ...................................................
Food/AG?Fertilizer/Commodities - best sectors to be in.

BUSINESS SUMMARY
Zhongpin, Inc. engages in the meat and food processing operations in the People's Republic of China. It primarily offers chilled and frozen pork products, pig by-products, and meats, as well as prepared meats, such as sausages, hams, and Chinese cured hams. The company also offers fruits and vegetable produces, including asparagus, sweet corn, broccoli, mushrooms, lima beans, strawberries, and capsicum. Zhongpin's customers primarily include international fast food companies, processing factories, school cafeterias, factory canteens, army posts, and national departments. It also sells directly to retail outlets, including supermarkets. The company is based in Changge City, the People's Republic of China.

 

[offwork]

I had been lying dormant because I had taken a huge hit in my account and wasn't trading much and also I had started trading futures.

I am back into options again. So I look into some of the analysis stuff a little again. I would not touch HOG

HOG is bad in bad times. People don't run out and buy a HOG when they are facing hard times. HOG also suffers from credit problems also. People can't qualify for loans to buy expensive hogs.

-----------------------------

Gencor Industries Inc. (GENC) is in a pretty good sector. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=GENC
It's had a pretty good run this year and if the global growth story is still strong then they should continue to benefit from it. They are a global company and have manufacturing facilities, servicing North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. So as long as countries have more infrastructure build out they should still be ok. You could always keep it as a long term play. I am a bit disappointed that a company that old didn't pay dividend though.

Hey thanks for your take on these picks. You did for a minute have me thinking HOGS might be engaging in some sort of pig retail business

 

[offwork]

Yea the volume seems less this time through, the last move up was on substantial volume increase, I think it will definitely give back some gains, any profit is a good profit, so use stops if you have to to lock in...

Nice call its scaleing back just a bit. Now im sitting on a lil change watching the pics looking for entry.

 

[popozudalvr]

Nice call its scaleing back just a bit. Now im sitting on a lil change watching the pics looking for entry.

After a while i gave up on the near term prospects of TITN, it simply trades a bit too weird for my liking, it tracks no sector & it moves w/ very low volume & on high volume. Think they are a great company but they are being flipped by fund managers it seems...the 17-21 range has it locked in there, should an earnings release come i think it could have a spike..but it will sell off..it is a stock w/o footing yet...

We've seen some good pickups from the lows on PAL/TGB, hoping for a stable base & then some substantial upside move..picked up TGB at the 52 week high lol..

 

[offwork]

After a while i gave up on the near term prospects of TITN, it simply trades a bit too weird for my liking, it tracks no sector & it moves w/ very low volume & on high volume. Think they are a great company but they are being flipped by fund managers it seems...the 17-21 range has it locked in there, should an earnings release come i think it could have a spike..but it will sell off..it is a stock w/o footing yet...

We've seen some good pickups from the lows on PAL/TGB, hoping for a stable base & then some substantial upside move..picked up TGB at the 52 week high lol..

I see. I watched TITN drop to about $20 then up over $21 then down again. Like a dealer at a blackjack table that I just beat. It wants its money back. I agree I'll put that one on watch till around $17.50. Im keeping an eye on HOGS...man that might go crazy if the volume tripled. Also checking out BIDU. According to Tripster it should be seeing $230 soon...not that im going to buy shares at the moment.

 

[popozudalvr]

I see. I watched TITN drop to about $20 then up over $21 then down again. Like a dealer at a blackjack table that I just beat. It wants its money back. I agree I'll put that one on watch till around $17.50. Im keeping an eye on HOGS...man that might go crazy if the volume tripled. Also checking out BIDU. According to Tripster it should be seeing $230 soon...not that im going to buy shares at the moment.

WHoa...Offwork/Trip//
What would be the cause of BIDU dropping 50 or so?? I know it's had a nice run & due to correct, but if your call is close to right that'd be a terrific put play, thats the timeframe of this projected drop, I know you play BIDU so drop some knowledge on this..

 

[offwork]

BIDU is becoming so predictable its almost scary. I buy at 230s and sell at 260s. Closed at 272 today. Then I go short back down....stir...and repeat.

Earnings coming up in the next 3 weeks, so this pattern may continue until then. Let's Get It!

Hey PoPo I was refering to Trip strategy he mention a lil awhile that all. That $16G trade really stuck in my head. I acted like it didnt but it did.

 

[offwork]

FMBL.OB +$1,190.00

Farmers & Merchants Bank of Long Beach Announces Final Results of Tender Offer
Monday April 7, 5:18 pm ET


LONG BEACH, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Farmers & Merchants Bank of Long Beach (OTCBB: FMBL - News) today announced the final results of its tender offer, which expired at 12:00 midnight, Eastern Time, on Tuesday, April 1, 2008. The Bank has accepted for purchase 14,720 shares of its common stock at a price of $7,300 per share.
ADVERTISEMENT


Based on a final count by the depositary for the tender offer, an aggregate of 42,316 shares of the Bank’s common stock were properly tendered and not withdrawn, and a proration factor of approximately 32.95% will be applied. Accordingly, the Bank will purchase from each tendering shareholder approximately 32.95% of such shares as were validly tendered (with appropriate adjustments to avoid purchases of fractional shares), except that shares properly tendered by holders who qualified as “small shareholders” in accordance with the terms of the offer will be purchased prior to proration.

The depositary will promptly pay for the shares accepted for purchase.

MacKenzie Partners, Inc. is the information agent and The Colbent Corporation serves as the depositary in the tender offer. Stockholders and investors who have questions or need information about the tender offer may call MacKenzie Partners at (212) 929-5500 or toll-free at (800) 322-2885.

About Farmers & Merchants Bank of Long Beach

Founded in Long Beach in 1907 by C.J. Walker, Farmers & Merchants Bank of Long Beach has 22 branches in L.A. and Orange counties. The Bank specializes in commercial and small business banking along with business loan programs up to $35 million. The Bank is one of the strongest banks in the country measured by a variety of industry measurements. Farmers & Merchants Bank of Long Beach is a California state chartered bank with deposits insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”).



Contact:
PondelWilkinson Inc.
Corporate and Investor Relations
Angie Yang/Evan Pondel, 310-279-5980
investor@pondel.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Farmers & Merchants Bank of Long Beach

Theres so much money out there...

"If you cant get paid in a earth this big you worthless kid
nigga dont deserve to live" -Cam'ron

 

[popozudalvr]

FMBL.OB +$1,190.00

Not really a big deal seeing as though the %age gain was only 25% & the volume a meek under 200 shares.

These things occur on the BB, and PInks alot, so you'll see somehitng like that pop up ever so often, but you have to peel back the layers to see what's really up

 

[offwork]

Not really a big deal seeing as though the %age gain was only 25% & the volume a meek under 200 shares.

These things occur on the BB, and PInks alot, so you'll see somehitng like that pop up ever so often, but you have to peel back the layers to see what's really up[/QUOTE

Yeah that sure looked good on the surface though.

 

[popozudalvr]

Not really a big deal seeing as though the %age gain was only 25% & the volume a meek under 200 shares.

These things occur on the BB, and PInks alot, so you'll see somehitng like that pop up ever so often, but you have to peel back the layers to see what's really up[/QUOTE

Yeah that sure looked good on the surface though.

Always scratch deeper...lol
got some earnings coming soon:
POT 4/24
TITN 4/28

Now, MOS absolutly killed earings, and I'f I'm to play POT on this earnings I will load up on calls prior to earnings, some May 175,180s wherever POT is come a few days prior. We've seen the results of several AGs reporting & the effects on their relative stock price, MON/MOS/AGU, POT is the king of them all & I have to think it will be a worthwhile gamble to play the calls. as it is I'm waiting for MOS to pull back to the 110-115 area,,it may or may not occur as the stock has had plenty of strength lately..we'll see...picking the calls or puts prior to earnings can bring a windfall of profits...

so anyone have some other worthwhile ones to look at, puts/calls/stocks/warrants?????????

Btw folks,,as time goes by I become more sold that COIN will be a major runner in 2008... $30-$50 not out of the question...

 

[456.North.side]

Btw folks,,as time goes by I become more sold that COIN will be a major runner in 2008... $30-$50 not out of the question... DAAAAMN that would be great for coinz/w as well no? hehe

 

[soulcontroller]

whats your thoughts on ETFs. I got GLD, XES, and EWZ. bought em about two months ago and so far so good. GLD has been laggin though.

 

[popozudalvr]

Btw folks,,as time goes by I become more sold that COIN will be a major runner in 2008... $30-$50 not out of the question... DAAAAMN that would be great for coinz/w as well no? hehe

Certainly would bode well for the Warrants as well...things are shaping up there, the stock has lost some of the craziness & i do belive that minuscule float is dried up (if you notice the volume is very thin of late)...

As for EFTs...i'd rec'd any OIL/SILVER/PLATINUM one,,
but I'm not an investor in them,

 

[offwork]

Ive got my sights on TITN which will probably mysteriously drop to $17 before earning. GENC HOGS and ETFC. If Etrade. Goes low 3 im in.