While the US says it has passed notes to Iran via Pakistan to secure a possible ceasefire, Iran does not trust the US. It believes that the US misled Iran about previous rounds of talks, using them to gather US air power in the region to carry out attacks. Iran believes the US purposely tricked Tehran and lied to it during negotiations, and that the US always had plans to carry out a surprise attack.
The US and Israel have not been able to stop the Houthis in the past. In fact, the US conducted airstrikes in March 2025 but eventually concluded they offered diminishing returns. As such, Iran believes the US and Israel will have trouble dealing with the Houthis.
The Houthis represent a broader strategy for Iran, potentially affecting a new global shipping lane via the Red Sea. With the world already on edge about the Hormuz closure, this new front could spook the global economy.Iran knows, and the Houthis know, that they don’t have to do much to threaten the Red Sea; all they have to do is make it seem that there is a threat.
While Israel has also had a Red Sea strategy, supporting Somaliland, the Iranian answer via the Houthis is a new card that has been put into play.Iran and the Houthis believe that creating a “ring of fire” in the region that stretches from Lebanon via Iraq and the Gulf to Yemen, several thousand miles of frontline, will enflame the region and show the US that this war was a mistake.
