Iran vs Israel/US: Israel have elections Tuesday, Trump & NetInYahoo don’t like the results, war restarting with Iran likely soon!!!

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The videos seem to show less drones and more missiles this time. I highly suspect that Iran is saving the drones for when Isreal's air defenses are depleted. They already took out many of the air bases that would intercept the drones. I suspect a large scale drone attack coming.
 
This part...

The math of this war is devastating for the U.S. and its allies.

Reports indicate 6-7 interceptors are being fired per incoming Iranian missile. Here's what that costs:
Iranian missiles (estimated cost per unit):→ Shahab-3: ~$1-2 million → Emad/Ghadr: ~$2-3 million → Fateh-110: ~$500K-1 million → Houthis/proxy drones: ~$20-50K each

Allied interceptors (estimated cost per unit):→ Arrow-3: ~$3-5 million → Arrow-2: ~$2-3 million → David's Sling: ~$1-2 million → SM-3 (Navy): ~$15-30 million → THAAD interceptor: ~$12-15 million → Patriot PAC-3: ~$4-6 million

At 6-7 interceptors per missile:
One $2M Iranian missile costs the coalition $18-100M+ to defeat.

Iran has fired 200+ missiles. That's potentially tens of billions in interceptors burned in 48 hours. Iran doesn't need to win the air war. They just need to make it financially unsustainable. Every missile they launch drains the Western arsenal AND the budget.

This is asymmetric warfare at its purest. Iran is bleeding the empire.
 
Bro if they struck that building in Tel Aviv, during meeting time wow

Since the US-Israel assassinated the previous Supreme Leader, it appears there are no red lines, including no fucks given towards Trump's I-RAN sequel, where the U.S. is begging for a ceasefire.
 
Iran's war strategy is fairly straightforward: Blind U.S. forces by taking out radar installations, then fire low-cost, low-end missiles and drones at various targets to deplete U.S. air defense interceptors.

Once U.S. air defense batteries run out of ammunition, then Iran will launch the larger, more dangerous hypersonic missiles or even ballistic missiles.

I created this infographic to explain this. Full article coming tomorrow.






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Israeli Military Source: Air Defense Strain and Frustration with U.S. Pace

A senior source within the Israeli military told Inter Bellum News that sustained missile exchanges are placing significant strain on Israel’s air defense network and logistical supply chains.

According to the source, the constant rotation of anti-air systems and the effort required to maintain supply routes is taking a growing toll. Describing the internal mood, the source said bluntly, “We are fucking pissed,” referencing frustration over the intensity of the current campaign.

The source also expressed dissatisfaction with what they perceive as insufficient U.S. escalation, suggesting some within Israel’s security establishment believe Washington should be taking a more aggressive posture.
 
Day 2: Israel decimales Iranian Installations - Iran Retaliates Unprecedentedly Overnight

Israel and the US have been relentlessly bombing Iranian territory on the second day of the war, launching strikes primarily from Iraqi and Saudi airspace.

Approximately 1,000 targets have been hit in Iran, including air bases and bunkers.

The Iranian navy was also targeted, with 3 to 4 warships sunk. However, it's worth noting that only one of these vessels was modern; the others date back to the 1960s.

The hunt for Iranian missile launchers continues, with Israel striking several mobile launchers and anti-aircraft units daily. This is an extremely arduous task, as estimates from The Military Balance suggest Iran may possess up to 500 mobile launchers and hundreds of SHORAD systems.

On this second day, Iran decided to strike five bases/airports being used by US-Israel forces all at once.

The Saudi Prince Sultan Air Base was hit by multiple ballistic missiles, with several reports of smoke rising. Similarly, Iraq's Ain Al-Asad base was targeted.

But nothing compared to the intensity of the attacks on Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq and Ben Gurion Airport, which came under several ballistic missiles overnight.

And do you know what the biggest problem is? Iranian missiles are slipping through Israeli and American air defenses like a hot knife through butter.

Yesterday and today, I've shown videos where launchers fire up to 9 (or more) interceptors in attempts to down a single Iranian missile, often with little success.

Iran's retaliation against US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE continued on the second day, mainly using drones.

As I mentioned yesterday, Iran has proven that the war is only just beginning. It targeted Israeli cities with modern missiles that disperse submunitions during reentry, significantly expanding the affected areas. These missiles had never been used before in combat, showing that Iran is now deploying its most advanced systems, which are also far more resilient to interceptors.

At the current rate, interceptors will run out soon, and panic will grip both Israeli and American leadership. Both sides are failing in their primary objective: significantly reducing Iran's launch capacity, which remains high, with roughly 450 missiles and 850 drones ready in just two days.

If this pace holds, defensive munitions won't last more than 4-5 days. Based on what we've observed, Iran launches 200-220 missiles per day, while the coalition expends no fewer than 700-1,000 interceptors (or even more), with very limited success.

In the best-case scenario, this gives about 5 days of defensive ammo left; in the realistic (worst-case) scenario I've estimated from the interceptions I've seen, it's only 4 days.

This puts enormous pressure on the leaders of both countries to seek a ceasefire.

I believe that if Iran refuses a ceasefire, both Israel and the US will push for Gulf countries to enter the war, aiming to bolster defenses and deter further Iranian actions.

The entry of these countries would be paramount for the US and Israel due to their air support and, especially, their naval power.

These Gulf nations possess approximately 400 vessels, including frigates, corvettes, and patrol boats.

But until that happens, the war boils down to the same question: What runs out first, Iran's missile launch capability or the coalition's interceptors?

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