Cuba in trouble
“The future for Cuba is even bleaker than that of Belarus or Moldova. Cuba is even poorer than either of these examples, has similar high emigration, & has a fertility rate that may fall close to 1.0 this year. Elderly population to skyrocket with little youth base to support.
The island saw, by the end of 2024, a population of 9,748,532 inhabitants, close to that of four decades ago & 335,000 fewer citizens than in 2023. From just 2020-2023 400,000 Cubans emigrated. By 2030, those 59+ will be ~30% of the total population.”
An Aging Population Clouds Cuba’s Future
May 25, 2025
Two women converse inside the Our Lady of Bethlehem Convent in Havana, where a project offers attention to the elderly population. One quarter of Cuba’s continually declining population is 60 or older. Photo: Jorge Luis Baños / IPS
By Dariel Pradas (IPS)
HAVANA TIMES – Demographic profiles of Cuba reveal an aging country, with fewer births than deaths, an enormous emigration of young people of working age, and an environment of shortages and economic crises for those who are elderly. This group is considered one of the most vulnerable sectors of the Cuban population.
At the close of 2024, Cuba had a population of 9,748,532 inhabitants, close to that of four decades ago and with 335,000 fewer citizens than in 2023.
The reduction in the birth rate is one of the factors behind these numbers. This has fallen to the point where – according to declarations to the local media given by the assistant head of Cuba’s National Office for Statistics and Information (Onei) – the 2024 birth rate is “the lowest number of the last decades”: 71,000 births, representing 19,000 less than in 2023, and 34,000 less with respect to 2020 when the island recorded 105,516 births.
Meanwhile, the number of deaths has been increasing over the last few years. Since 1978, Cuba’s fertility rate isn’t high enough to maintain the population, meaning that since 2019, there’s been a natural decline in population, since more people are dying than being born.
“There’s no way you want to have children with so many economic problems, the lack of housing and the blackouts,” Havana resident Yoanka Alvarez, 29, told IPS.
On February 21, Onei informed a meeting of the Government Commission for Attention to the Demographic Dynamic that a quarter of the island’s population is 60 or older. This sector is the only one that has been growing in the past years. In contrast, the sector made up of children under 15 shrunk by 6%, and that between 15 and 59 diminished by nearly 12%.
The accelerated aging of the population is also due to an elevated life expectancy (76 for men and 80 for women), and the emigration of youth and adults of an age to produce and reproduce.
From 2020 to 2023, according to the Onei data, over 400,000 Cubans officially left Cuba for other countries. Over 1.5 million currently reside outside the island, principally in the US, Spain and Mexico.
Authorities from this insular Caribbean nation estimate that the population will continue shrinking. By 2030, they predict, there’ll be 100,000 fewer inhabitants of working age, while Cubans over 59 will come close to comprising 30% of the total population.
Similarly, the family units will continue to be composed of an average three people each, while overall dependence will increase, with over 620 inhabitants of every thousand outside the economically active age – including young children and the elderly. The social expense for guaranteeing an old age with dignity is – and will be – a growing challenge that the government must confront.
Two older Cubans converse while standing in line outside a State bakery in Havana. The daily difficulties older Cubans face as a result of the country’s economic crisis reduces their quality of life. Photo: Jorge Luis Baños / IPS
Quality of life in old age
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal) published a major “Demographic Observatory” report in November 2024, The document, which examines the acceleration of the region’s demographic changes in the first quarter of the XXI Century, highlighted that the population growth rate has diminished across the entire region. It ratifies the portrait of an aging population, with a drop in fertility to levels below those needed for replacement.
In 2024, the 65.4 million people older than 65 represented nearly 9.9% of the total population of the region (663 million), a number that may well increase to 18.9% in 2050 if the predictions of the regional organism hold true.
“The birth rate has diminished more rapidly than we foresaw at the beginning of the century. The increase in mortality due to Covid-19 was also unforeseen, as well as the increase in migration,” noted Jose Manuel Salazar-Xinnachs, Cepal executive secretary.
In Cuba, where the numbers are more alarming still, the challenge doesn’t only consist in reversing this demographic tendency, but also in improving the living conditions of this population group that demands more health care and finds itself generally in a situation of economic dependence.
“I retired five years ago, after having worked for more than 40, but the way things are in this country, I had no other option but to return to work. Even so, I don’t have enough money,” Armando Perez, a retired accountant from Havana, told reporters. His pension amounts to around 2,000 Cuban pesos (US $5.50) The minimum monthly pension established under Cuban law is equivalent to just US $4.10. That sum – which approximately 40% of the retired population receives – is light years away from being able to cover the minimum cost of basic foods.
Many older adults depend on their families to subsist, but according to the most recent data from the Cuban Ministry of Work and Social Security 17.4% of those over 60 live alone. While it’s true that the medicines sold through the official channels are subsidized, in December 2024 only 24% of the basic drug list was available.
A woman walks her dog in Havana. Around 17.4% of elder Cubans live alone. Photo: Jorge Luis Baños / IPS
Reversing the demographic tendency
The Policy for Attention to the Demographic Dynamic that the State has implemented since 2014 is aimed at reversing the demographic trend with measures to promote more fertility and the participation of older adults in the economy, as well as mitigating the causes of internal and external migration.
Mildrey Granadillo, first Assistant Minister of Planning and the Economy, told local media that for this year, 2025, they foresee earmarking 2.456 billion Cuban pesos [US $6.6 million dollars] for attention to the demographic dynamic. This sum represents an increase of 129% over the money earmarked for this in 2024.
Among the measures adopted to confront an already aged society are plans to “revitalize multidisciplinary teams for attention to gerontology and mental health in older adults,” and “undertake studies to protect the cognitive capacities and talents of the senior citizens.”
In accordance with these policies, the Cuban biotech and pharmaceutical industries are working on products to treat neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer’s. For example, since 2017 the Cuban Neuroscience Center has been developing a neuroprotective drug NeuroEpo, commercially known as Neural CIM, which they claim can significantly delay the advance of Alzheimer’s. According to the Center, the advanced results of current clinical trials are showing 84% effectiveness.
Mitchell Valdes, who directs the government institution, states that there are now around 150,000 Alzheimer’s patients on the island, and by the close of 2025 that number could increase to over 200,000.
“When we consider that for every person with an Alzheimer’s-related dementia, someone in the family has to take care of them, we’re calculating that half a million people could be directly or indirectly affected [by the disease],” Valdes told IPS.
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