Space Could Be a $1 Trillion-Dollar Business. Here Are the Stocks to Play It.
SpaceX's Starship isn't the only space-related blowup recently.      Space stocks, too, have crashed, and while most are never coming back, a      couple might be worth buying out of the wreckage.
   
It wasn't that long ago when space was the next big thing in the stock      market. Two years ago, special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs,      were all the rage -- and space stocks used the vehicles to go public.      Companies including Astra      Space (ticker: ASTR), which provides launch services; Earth      observation company Spire      Global (SPIR); and Momentus (MNTS), the FedEx of space, all came      public with much fanfare -- and now trade for less than a buck. All      told, the Procure Space exchange-traded fund (UFO), which counts among      its largest holdings Iridium Communications (IRDM) and Viasat      (VSAT) -- two companies that preceded the SPAC boom -- has fallen 36%      over the past two years, far worse than the S&P 500's 1% decline.
   
Space could still be on its way to being a big business, even if the      stocks have flopped. ProcureAM CEO Andrew Chanin points      out the highest estimate for the "cislunar" economy -- that is, all the      activity between the earth and moon -- is $10 trillion by      2050. The increasing frequency of rocket launches, along with the      shrinking size and cost of satellites themselves, are creating early      opportunities in space in everything from communications applications,      Earth observation, satellite services, and construction. Later,      permanent moon installations and commercial space stations will provide      even more opportunities for growth.
   
The space value chain begins with launches. In 2022, there were 186      successful rocket launches, 41 more than in 2021, according to Deloitte.      And more companies are getting into the action. SpaceX      launched 61, more than one-third of the total, equal to the number of      Chinese launches and more than every other country combined. Rocket      Lab USA (RKLB) launched nine times in 2022. United      Launch Alliance, the 50/50 joint venture between Lockheed Martin      (LMT) and Boeing (BA), had eight launches. Companies can make from $20      million a launch for sending satellites into low earth orbit to $      300 million a launch for taking astronauts to the International      Space Station.
   
While launches get the most attention -- who doesn't thrill at the sight      of a rocket leaving the pad? -- satellites are where the money is right      now. Look at the sky on any given night and it shouldn't be more than 15      minutes on average before one streaks across your field of view. There      are now an estimated 7,800 functional satellites in space, a number      that's growing all the time. According to the Space Foundation,      a nonprofit organization, operators deployed 2,354 spacecraft in 2022, a      36% annual increase.
   
Most of those fleets are made up of small, commercial satellites that      can cost up to $100,000 each. While they have shorter      life spans than traditional geostationary satellites, their      comparatively low cost also makes them easier to upgrade. It's a dynamic      seen firsthand by Jay Monroe,      who has been involved in the space business since he led a rescue of      satellite communications provider Globalstar (GSAT) from bankruptcy in      2004 and now serves as its executive chairman. The company is planning      the launch of 17 satellites by the end of 2025 to replenish its fleet.      Monroe estimates it will cost $500 million in total, with      some support coming from Apple (AAPL), in exchange for reserving      capacity for emergency messaging on new-generation iPhones.
   
"If you look back at Globalstar's first constellation, which began      launching in 1998...those would have cost a multiple of what we're      spending today to do the same technical function," Monroe says.
   
All those satellites are unlocking other opportunities. SpaceX      and Globalstar aren't the only companies trying to connect cellphones to      satellites -- other projects are under way by Iridium and AST      SpaceMobile (ASTS). Satellite broadband is set to represent 50% of the      projected growth of the global space economy by 2040, according to      analysts at Morgan Stanley.
   
"This is a trillion-dollar market opportunity," says Mark      Boggett, CEO of Seraphim Space, a space-focused venture-      capital firm with a portfolio of 105 investments, including AST      SpaceMobile. "This has the potential to turn one of the most important      industries on its head."
   
Those satellites also offer the ability to monitor what's happening on      earth. Russia's      invasion of Ukraine      is just the latest event to be tracked in minute detail from space.      Artificial-intelligence tools could unlock new uses for      satellite-generated data in areas such as climate-change monitoring,      supply-chain planning, and military planning. The market for data and      services from earth-observation companies is set to reach $7.9      billion by 2031 from $4.6 billion in 2021,      according to research firm Euroconsult.
   
Big business doesn't guarantee good stocks. When Barron's put space on      its cover in 2021, the excitement was palpable partly because a boom in      capital raising by SPACs was providing cash to a bevy of space      start-ups, including Rocket Lab, BlackSky Technology (BKSY),      and others. The combined market capitalization of the new public      companies was roughly $25 billion, while SpaceX      was worth about $75 billion, giving them a combined value      of $100 billion. The same group of space-stocks-plus-SpaceX      is now worth about $145 billion, up 45%. Only now, SpaceX      is worth roughly $140 billion and the rest have lost 90%      of their value from their record highs.
   
Today, most of the space start-ups look too risky for investors. Before      their mergers, the space companies that IPOed via SPACs had expected to      generate sales of about $3.2 billion in 2023. That number      will be closer to $1 billion, based on Wall      Street's current projections. Start-ups such as Momentus,      Astra, and Spire are now trading below $1, putting them      at risk of being delisted by the Nasdaq stock exchange.
   
But even companies that have been at it for a while have to deal with      the high costs and limited life spans of what they produce, making it a      difficult area to invest in. For every winner like Iridium, which has      gained 69% over the past two years, there's a company like Viasat,      which has fallen 25%. They are also the kinds of businesses that might      do better without the scrutiny of public markets -- one reason, perhaps,      that Maxar Technologies, which provided imagery of Ukraine      early in the war, was acquired earlier this month by a group led by      private-equity firm Advent International for $53      a share, which values the entire company at $6.4 billion,      or about 50 times estimated 2024 earnings.
   
There are two standout start-ups from the initial batch of 2021 SPACs. Rocket      Lab, whose shares have dropped 59% to a recent $4.10      over the past two years, provides both launch services and makes its own      satellites, giving it multiple ways to win. "When you look at all the      satellites launched over the next decade or so, there's a real need for      a...constellation-building machine," says Rocket Lab CEO Peter      Beck.
   
In other words, finding the right investments isn't as simple as buying      a basket of stocks and waiting for the prices to rise. "Space is hard      and capital intensive," writes Citigroup analyst Jason      Gursky. "The science of designing survivable spacecraft is not      easy. Delays are frequent. Launches explode."
   
That's showing up in Rocket Lab's numbers. The company is      expected to generate about $290 million in 2023 sales,      about 8% better than the company forecast when it went public back in      2021, making it one of the few SPACs to offer realistic revenue goals. BofA      Securities analyst Ron Epstein projects $320      million in 2023 sales. He rates shares Buy and has a $13      price target, up about 217% from recent levels. That might be      aggressive, but even a rise to the average analyst price target of $8      a share would imply a gain of nearly 100%. The stock trades at six times      12-month forward sales of $336 million, a reasonable      valuation for a company that has a chance of becoming profitable.
   
Earth-imaging company Planet Labs (PL) also looks      interesting. It has more than 200 satellites orbiting the globe every 90      minutes -- satellites that are able to take pictures at higher      resolutions and gather data in spectra beyond human visual perception --      and is planning two new fleets. It is expected to generate about $252      million in 2023 sales, about 13% below the $289 million      it projected in 2021, but still better than the average 2021 space      start-up, which missed 2023 projections by about 63%. Planet Labs      is also on track to generate positive earnings before interest, taxes,      depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, by calendar year 2024 and      positive free cash flow by 2025. It also ended 2022 with more than $400      million on its books, enough to operate for four to five years      at its current cash burn rate.
   
Citi's Gursky likes the stock for its revenue growth, which he expects      to compound by 29% through 2026, and its potential for profit in the      years to come, even if he worries about the spending it needs to do to      launch more satellites. "With that said, there is still enough upside to      our price target to justify a Buy rating," writes Gursky, whose $6      target is up 48% from a recent close of $4.06.
   
Just remember, space is a risky business. Blowups come with the      territory.