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Trump almost neck and neck with Biden after RNC.

LordSinister said:
he brought out the crime rates under Trump
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Trump right now

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Spectrum said:
Yep. And Trump knows that. He hasn't read much, but it's been widely reported he's read about the rise of Nazi Germany, specifically.
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Trump had a book containing Hitler's speeches. Trump's father and grandfather were very proud of his German heritage. Really no telling what they said to him about the Nazi's. No coincidence that went over to eastern Europe to find his brides.

www.snopes.com

Did Donald Trump Say 'Mein Kampf' Had a 'Profound Effect' on Him?

The same internet meme quoted Trump as saying he has 'tremendous respect' for Adolf Hitler.
www.snopes.com www.snopes.com
 
Spectrum said:
I've been talking more to my Nigerians friends about that shit actually. I'm been trying to understand it
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In part, I think it's a mindset and the social conditioning here. Comments I've made regarding this in the past:


Camille said:
Lmao. Nice try. Just because I think y'all a bunch of short sighted dumb asses trying to run a mile by cutting off your legs first, doesn't mean I'm not ados. It just means I'm smart enough to know any division of black folks make smaller groups for ws to attack. There are always going to be cultural differences and rivalries with most peoples. You speak about how non ados look down on us, but American blacks can be just as petty, thinking everyone grew up living in huts and wearing loin cloths. We tend to think anyone with an accent is stupid. Our blackness and the struggle we face almost everywhere we go is supposed to be a common factor that unites us. Another black face in the crowd is supposed to be a refuge. So I am going to stand against anything that tells me I'm supposed to look down on another black person regardless of origin.

I've said before we have a lot to learn from people who come from all black countries where black excellence is not an an anomaly. They grow up around all black business owners and doctors where being black doesn't mean it is inferior. It's normal, natural and expected. We grow up here with a permissive mindset tainted with the idea that the white mans ice is colder. We think we need permission for everything. Tulsa and other events are in our collective societal history and memory so we carry mindsets that we can only go as far as white folks will "let" us. We can't do xyz because white folks won't like it. We want to patronize white businesses because they are better. If it's a black business they are supposedly trying to fleece us. Many don't grow up being taught business and stocks, as though it is outside our ability and white people stuff.

Instead of shitting on other cultures we need to learn what we can from them. According to you and all the folks in this thread they are apparently doing something different and better to get ahead. Don't hate the player, learn the game.
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Camille said:
Re: My poor grandparents came from Russia and made it in America so why can't black f

I haven't read through all the replies or watched the videos, (tho I will), so I apologize if I'm repeating anything that has already been said.

I think the mindset of U.S. blacks vs blacks from other countries are different. "Outside" blacks have what I call an "entitlement" mindset where they believe they are entitled and expected to have ownership(as they should), while American blacks tend to have a "permissive" mindset where we seek permission to take ownership.

They are coming from another country where they are surrounded and served by other blacks who own businesses and with knowledge of building wealth. In America's past, we often were not allowed to have ownership, except that which whites allowed. Blacks did not have their own wealth coming out of slavery. 40 acres and a mule didn't apply to us. In later times we couldn't get loans for homes or businesses. When we could get loans they were at higher rates than everyone else. We often couldn't get hired for anything other than domestic work, let alone go to college, which is why we have the historically black colleges in the first place. We had to create our own schools. Play the stock market? Yeah right. Only in recent years (past 30 or so) are blacks learning to invest, while white kids grow up learning about that stuff since birth.

There were blacks who went off on their own and built successful communities only to be burned to the ground. Whites were the land owners, the job creators. They had the power, the guns, the law on their side, regardless of whether or not were being lawful. At first it was a crime to teach blacks to read. Later, if you were smart and well read you were "uppity", and needed to be reminded to "know your place." Russians and others with white skin can lose the accent and be welcomed with open arms. Regardless of how well we speak, our skin still separates us, so we are seen as "other". Eventually some stop trying and it became collective wisdom that we can only go so far.

A lot of things have changed structurally, but not mentally. Knowledge is more available than ever before but there is a collective mindset that everyone black and white feeds from/into. Whites (and some blacks) see successful blacks as the "exception to the rule", assuming they believe that they obtained what they have legally. We don't have "success" as a normalized image for us collectively, even though we may actually be surrounded by successes and not just one or two exceptions. What's sad is that when blacks gain power in media, they often perpetuate those same dysfunctional hood images instead of putting out a counter image that shows the truth. This is why the Michelle Obama/French Elle article was so off base: the only image of blacks that reaches outside of America is the hip hop/video strippa/hood image, instead of normal day to day images. One reason I'm so glad that Obama is in the whitehouse is because it will help normalize an image of a successful, loving, BLACK family. That's also why they are so hated: they can't be ignored for the time being and their image is counter to the stereotypes whites want to use to justify their behavior and thinking patterns toward us.

Anyway, WE need to get on the entitlement bandwagon. I sometimes catch myself "waiting" for permission to do something. I have to stop and ask myself who I'm waiting on. Our cultural self esteem has long taken a hit where we don't feel we DESERVE wealth, so we only seek after the fast buck, or are content just getting by, or spend it as soon as we get it.
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Camille said:
OK. This still doesn't clarify your previous response but something tells me I won't get a clarification so I'm not going to pursue it further.

Most of the schools here are public schools. There is a small percentage of people who home school, and and an even smaller percentage of those who are black who home school. We weren't writing the history books, so the only mention of blacks you had for the most part were in relation to slavery, not the contributions as inventors, etc. If you've seen any of the uproar the last couple of years, we still have folx in Texas trying to rewrite history to make it seem less brutal. For the most part, teachers have always supplemented, at least in my experience, some info not outside the text books, and I've had a really good black history teacher who would talk about things not in the text book, but not actual history relating to Africa. For the most part the curriculum in the class rooms have to be approved. There have always been those who would teach and discuss black history, but not on a widespread, national scale. We don't really wait until February to discuss black history, but that is a month where this is an intense focus on it. It's be come more commercialized with companies putting out ads celebrating black history month, who can push off as far as I'm concerned if they don't feature and hire blacks during the rest of the year, but that's another discussion. I think not living here and seeing mainly only the images that are put out, which tend to be more negative than how the majority of the population is actually living. If all you see of America is the hip hop, reality tv and idiots arguing on a porn board, then I can understand not having a well rounded picture of what goes on. Not to say there is not negativity, but that isn't the full picture.


As far as business ownership/entrepreneurship I actually think we can learn a lot from blacks from other countries. We tend generally, in my opinion, to have a permissive attitude where we seek permission to do things, where blacks from other countries where the leadership and authority is also black, have an entitlement mindset to ownership. That is in my (admittedly narrow) experience witnessing just general attitudes. Of course that doesn't apply to everyone, I believe we have quite a few business owners here on the board. We do have a history of being literally burned and legislated out of progress we were making and I think some, at least in the past or amongst older folx, have had the attitude that whites won't "let" us advance, so they don't try, or only try to advance so far, but that isn't true of everyone, we've always had fighters who put their lives on the line for rights and freedoms. I think what actually holds us back in this day and age is the lack of knowledge of how to do things, not a lack of willingness or desire. Also a lack of trust in others. I don't think we are powerless, but I don't think we know how to effectively wield the power that is available to us.

Anyway... good discussion, but I'm out.
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Camille said:
I think this is true to a certain extent now, but this was not always the case. When you had places like Tulsa/Black Wall Street burned to the ground by jealous whites whenever we did band together and progress, black people here "learned" culturally and collectively that white folks were only going to "let" us prosper only so much. Our history is one of literally burned and legislated out of progress we were making and I think some, at least in the past or among older people, have passed down the idea that we are powerless to a degree because of these outside forces.. This isn't true of everyone, we've always had fighters who put their lives on the line for rights and freedoms.

I've said this before but I actually think we can learn a lot from blacks from other countries. We tend generally, in my opinion, to have a permissive attitude where we seek permission to do things, where blacks from other countries where the leadership and authority is also black, have an entitlement mindset to ownership. That is in my (admittedly narrow) experience witnessing just general attitudes. I think what actually holds us back in this day and age is the lack of knowledge of how to do things, not a lack of willingness or desire. Also a lack of trust in others. I don't think we are powerless, but I don't think we know how to effectively wield the power that is available to us.




See my answer above but also "allow" sort of means we had a choice, when often there wasn't one or the choice was do it my way or die, leaving your children and family unprotected.

First, we were out numbered. Even now black folks are only 13% of the population.

Secondly this nation has never had black people on an equal footing with white folks. There were laws in place to where we couldn't be taught to read. After slavery was over, there were laws that prevented us from migrating to other states. Laws that prevented us from owning land. Even building plans for cities were designed to keep us crowded in together, away from white folks. In this day and age there are cities with transportation routes set up so that black folks are isolated and unable to easily commute to areas with better jobs. We were denied loans for businesses. Discriminated against in the work force. Even now as recently as a few years ago there was a lawsuit where black consumers were given higher interest rates for car loans, regardless of their credit scores. The attack on blackness isn't something that is in the past. It is real and ongoing to this day.

We have areas with lead in the drinking water leading to behavior and mental issues, anger, etc. Cities are zoned so that all the pollution is in poor or black areas.

The miracle is that we aren't in worse shape. White supremacy has done everything they can to hold black folks down, yet still we prosper.



They may be more devious, cunning and deceitful, I can't say "smarter". Smarter is relative. White folks get a lot of things done not because they are smart, but they have wealth to hire someone who is, or power to control someone who is and who can be made to work to their advantage.

When you are are a person of honor and integrity and used to dealing with like minded people, you are unprepared for the wolf in sheep's clothing.
Had Africans known the conditions that would be in store for black people in America, I'm sure things would have been different, but there was no way of knowing the mistreatment that would follow.



I love you dearly, but you are destined to marry and reproduce with a white woman. You are still in denial about it, but just watch and see. You may as well just eliminate all the stress and mental frustration and accept it now. If by chance you marry a black woman, you are going to cheat on her with a white woman. The writing is on the wall, you just can't see it yet.



Agreed. Cold-hearted folks.



So all the other planets are spheres but we are pancaked up in the sky, huh? The book of Job mentions in the bible that the earth is a sphere.



Poverty and racism are intertwined. Racism is used to keep black folks in poverty.
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Camille said:
Ok I broke down and watched it. I agree with her. There have been more than one person who has mentioned separating around here, but I never get a response as to how that works.

I think we have a lot that we can learn from other black peoples. I don't think they are more successful because they are better or have more drive, but they haven't been conditioned with the propaganda that black excellence is an anomaly. They grow up with black doctors, black professionals, black business owners as the norm. We have been conditioned that we are going to get as far as white folks LET us, and we can't be TOO successful or jealous whites will take it away just like they did Tulsa/black wall street. They don't have all that baggage. They don't see ownership as white people shit, whereas many American born blacks have a permissive mindset.

We talk about civil rights, but all these decades later we still see rights as being granted to us, rather than something we are entitled to by virtue of being born here in America. Many of us still see ourselves as beggars rather than rightful citizens. That's a white narrative that keeps us "othered" and we parrot that same nonsense.
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rude_dog said:
Its well-documented that before coming to power, the Nazi's used to go into the left-leaning parts of Germany, start fights and then campaign that only they could stop the violence.
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Hell yeah, but what we have here is different. Anyone who denies that shit is bias as fucking hell and not being truthful. The sad fucking part is REAL protesters are caught in between both sets of dumb asses. There are basically professional agitators from the extremes of left and right.

Look at the facts. We have trumpers going into these spots waiting for shit to happen and provoking. We have radical leftists starting shit with anyone and also going into areas they ain't from. I seen far too many videos indicting assholes from both sides for any other narrative to be pushed on me.

That's why those OGs in Englewood, Illinois didn't want those pink-haired leftists coming there fucking up shit. When those OGs checked those cacs it was epic. Fools going to come in kicking up shit and then bounce. Same for the trumpers. Leave your spot trashed and then move on.

Trump pouring gasoline on all this shit because he knows dumb asses going to all come out to play. He's playing to the extremists on both sides so that he can get video clips. :smh: They then show this shit to moderates not from the coasts. Naturally, he don't show the clips indicting his followers. Naturally, the left don't show shit that indicts there guys.

Sad reality Trump ain't got to do shit to start violence in SOME cases because the shit starts before the trumpers can even put their Michelobs down, grab their MAGA hats, and get the keys to their pickup trucks. FOX had a field day when downtown Chicago got rolled on and wasn't a trumper in sight. Got those cacs thinking shit is coming to them. :smh: Same for the first day in Kenosha.

The facts are that MOST Americans civil about this shit. My neighborhood has Biden and Trump signs in front yards. Ain't no one FROM here clowning about it. It would take agitators from outside to come in here and stir shit up.
 
camdion1 said:
The Biden Campaign needs to run this ad constantly like a broke record.


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He was contemplating running for President as a Democrat at the time. Party means nothing to him, it’s about the adoration of a group. He realized that white racists were the stupidest and easiest people to manipulate. he knew he could never con the white intellectual part of the democratic party. He knew that Wall street and New Yorkers laughed at him.
 
Obama did not have a super majority for his first 2 years. For some of that time, there were 2 senators laid up in the hospital (not voting) and Al Franken's election results were being challenged in court, so he wasn't sworn in (so he wasn't voting). Having the numbers on paper is one thing, but if every senator on that paper isn't able to vote due to hospitalization or legal challenges holding up them being sworn in, the reality is something else. He had 58/59 voting senators for the most part... not super majority in reality. So the two years thing isn't even up for debate.


forcesteeler said:
Obama has a super majority for the first 2 years. More blacks were shot by police under Obama and he did not do shit but sign blue live matter laws.

Plus under Obama what did we get? All we got was the LGBT agenda and More immigrants that we as black Americans got to compete for Jobs.

Then you wonder why the black vote participation is so low. Blacks are waking up and not falling for the shit anymore. Trump don’t scare us cut us a fucking check.
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www.nytimes.com

Wrong or Imprecise? Understanding the Polls in the 2016 and 2020 Elections (Published 2020)

In this math lesson, students will use two fundamental statistical concepts — bias and noise — to analyze what went wrong in the 2016 presidential polls and evaluate the reliability of the forecasts for 2020.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Wrong or Imprecise? Understanding the Polls in the 2016 and 2020 Elections
In this math lesson, students will use two fundamental statistical concepts — bias and noise — to analyze what went wrong in the 2016 presidential polls and evaluate the reliability of the forecasts for 2020.




Far fewer voters are telling pollsters they are undecided in this election cycle compared with 2016.Credit...Brendan Smialowski/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
By Dashiell Young-Saver
  • Oct. 22, 2020


    • 2
Students in U.S. high schools can get free digital access to The New York Times until Sept. 1, 2021.
Lesson Overview
Featured Article: “The Upshot on Today’s Polls” by Nate Cohn
President Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election was a surprise to many. Numerous pre-election polls showed Mrs. Clinton leading in battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
After those forecasts underestimated Mr. Trump’s support in 2016, many Americans are approaching 2020 with a new mantra: “Don’t trust the polls.”
So, this election cycle, you may be wondering: Can we trust the polls in 2020? Can we trust polls ever again? In this lesson, you will use two fundamental statistical concepts — bias and noise — to analyze the 2016 polls. Then you will apply what you learned to evaluate the reliability of the 2020 election forecasts.
Warm Up
Do you ever look at polls — political or otherwise? Have you ever participated in one? Do you think they are useful or accurate measures of public opinion? Do you think they are given too much attention during election season?
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Continue reading the main story


The polls we’re talking about in this lesson are political polls — surveys of small samples of likely voters. We use them to estimate how the whole population will vote on Election Day.
Respond to the following questions about polls in writing, or in class discussion:
  • Why do you think polls use a small sample of likely voters? Why not try to measure everyone who will vote on Election Day?
  • Which poll would you trust more: one that sampled five likely voters or one that sampled 500? Why?
  • Which poll would you trust more: one that sampled individuals from many different backgrounds (for example, people of different races, genders, education levels and political affiliations) or one that mostly sampled individuals from one type of background? Why?



Image
Credit...Dashiell Young-Saver
In the above image, imagine the bull’s-eye is the true percentage of people who will vote for President Trump in your state (something we’ll know only after the election). The “x’s” are estimates provided by polls. Respond to the following questions:
  • Which target illustrates the best polling? Which target illustrates the worst polling? How do you know?
  • Based on the image, describe what you think it means for polls to be accurate. Describe what it means for polls to be precise. What is the difference between accuracy and precision?
  • Which is more important: accuracy or precision? Why?
The statistical term for accuracy is bias. The term for precision is noise. Here is the same graphic using those terms:



Image

Credit...Dashiell Young-Saver
How do these terms make you think differently about accuracy and precision, if at all?
Pollsters spend their careers trying to reduce bias and noise in their polls. In general, they reduce bias by polling sets of individuals that are representative of the whole population. They reduce noise by collecting a greater sample size to have more data.
Activity Part I: What Happened in 2016?
In a 2017 article breaking down polling errors from the 2016 election, Nate Cohn discusses the practice of weighting polls to provide better estimates:
Education was a huge driver of presidential vote preference in the 2016 election, but many pollsters did not adjust their samples — a process known as weighting — to make sure they had the right number of well-educated or less educated respondents.
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If pollsters use good weighting, they make their samples more representative of the actual population, which reduces bias.



In 2016, highly educated voters preferred Mrs. Clinton by a large margin. In addition, highly educated voters respond to polls more often. National polls adjusted for these trends by weighting their samples. Use the graphic below, from Mr. Cohn’s article, to study the effect of weighting:

Respond to the following questions:
  • How would you explain the meaning of weighting in polls in your own words? Why do unrepresentative samples create bias?
  • In 2016, what effect did weighting of education have on the estimated proportion of Trump voters?
  • In 2016, various polls in key states, especially those in the Midwest, did not use weights for education levels. Why was this a problem? Does this problem lead to bias or noise? How do you know?
  • If you were a pollster in 2020, how might you avoid the mistakes of the 2016 election?
Activity Part II: What About 2020?
State polling methods have changed since 2016. Mr. Cohn writes about these changes in “Are State Polls Any Better Than They Were in 2016?”:
Another source of polling error was the failure of many state pollsters to adjust their samples to adequately represent voters without a college degree. Voters with a college degree are far likelier to respond to telephone surveys than voters without one, and in 2016 the latter group was far likelier to support Mr. Trump. Over all, weighting by education shifted the typical national poll by around four percentage points toward Mr. Trump, helping explain why the national polls fared better than state polls.
Four years later, weighting by education remains just as important. The gap in the preference of white voters with or without a college degree is essentially unchanged, despite the appeal Mr. Biden was supposed to have with less educated white voters.
In the New York Times/Siena College surveys conducted in October, Mr. Biden’s combined lead over Mr. Trump in the core six battleground states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina — was two percentage points. That lead would have been six percentage points had the polls not been weighted by education or turnout (which correlates with education).
Although they could still be doing better, more pollsters are weighting by education today than four years ago. Over all, 46 percent of the more than 30 pollsters who have released a state survey since March 1 appeared to weight by self-reported education, up from around 20 percent of battleground state pollsters in 2016.
Some of the increase is because a handful of pollsters have decided to start weighting by education, a prominent example being the Monmouth University poll. But more of the change is because of the high volume of state online polls, which have always been likelier than state telephone surveys to weight by education.
Click to expand...
Now, read the entire article so that you can apply what you’ve learned to the 2020 election in the activities below.
1. First, explore the polls. Take five minutes to navigate the 2020 poll breakdown for today in “The Upshot on Today’s Polls.” Start by taking a look at the most recent polls in the left column. Then explore the polls in the right column, including those headlined: “A snapshot of current polling averages”; “Exploring Electoral College outcomes”; and “How polling averages have changed.”
As you examine the polls, reflect: What do you notice about the polls on this page? What do you wonder about any or all of the polls?
2. Next, focus on “A snapshot of current polling averages,” the first poll on the right side of the page. This snapshot has three categories: “Polling leader”; “If polls were as wrong as they were in 2016”; and “If polls were as wrong as they were in 2012.”
Answer the following questions:
  • By “wrong,” do you think it refers to bias or noise? How do you know? Why would that make a difference?
  • Compare the numbers from the “Polling leader” column with the numbers in the 2016 column. Which column is more favorable for Mr. Trump? Why do you think this is?
  • Do you believe the polls have adjusted enough to provide an unbiased picture of the 2020 election? Why or why not?
3. Finally, reflect on what you learned:
  • What did you learn about the uses and abuses of polls? Give at least three takeaways from this lesson.
  • What questions about polls and polling do you still have?
  • Does the lesson change how you think about polls? Will you trust polls more or less now?
  • What advice would you give to others who might be distrustful or confused by the current election polling?
Going Further
Option 1: Analyze and interpret a poll.
Dig deeper into The Upshot’s 2020 Poll Breakdown. Explore key states and how their polls have changed over time. See if political events, such as the first presidential debate on Sept. 29, seem to change poll numbers. What do you think could explain these changes?
Analyze poll quality. FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters based on various metrics. Explore their ratings, the metrics they use and how their metrics test for bias and noise. What stands out to you? What questions do you have?
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Continue reading the main story


Option 2: Make a prediction.
Based on the poll numbers, predict the election results. FanSchool offers an election challenge, where you can submit your Electoral College predictions.
Here are some other leading polling services to help you with your prediction:
FiveThirtyEight
Real Clear Politics
Quinnipiac University
CNN
Option 3: Conduct your own poll.
Apply what you have learned by creating your own poll.
Who will you vote for in the 2020 election? What’s your favorite pizza topping? How would you rate your online learning experiences?
The subject and questions are up to you — but whatever the poll topic, ask enough people for you to feel confident in your estimates. But be sure to consider critical questions explored in this lesson like bias, noise, weighting and sample size.
Start with the goals of your poll and what you want to find out. Then formulate your question or questions. Next, decide on a way to conduct your poll — via social media, phone or a free polling app like Google Forms. Finally, determine how you will display your findings (a chart, a graph or another format). You can create your visual representation by hand or by using a free design app like Canva.
Afterward, reflect on the process and your findings: How well were you able to reduce bias and noise in your poll? How might you conduct it differently if you were to do it again?
 

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