Good post I found on ripple forum:
Lets be very grounded, and just consider immediate market where ripple is already going commercial as of now. and considering those facts, lets assume the following:
Assumption 1.) ripple cloud solution using RCL - becomes a widely accepted solution for just cross-border transaction.
Assumption 2.) Lets say just Japan, Europe, India, Emirates, UK and US are the adapters.
Assumption 3.) Lets assume ripple's RCL backed cloud based solution now accounts for just mere 10 % of the cross border transactions among these countries.
Assumption 4.) So, Currencies in play are USD, GBP, DNH, JPY, EUR and INR.
first, lets the market share in USD value and lets just take US, UK, Japan and Emirates as major outgoing(aka: Sender) countries. Taking data from year 2015 'actual' readings of general migrant remittances (by ordinary working people sending money to family etc)and using pewresearch (
http://www.pewglobal.org/interactives/remittance-map/) as a reliable source.
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US --> India (outgoing)= 10.9 million $ USD
US --> UK (outgoing) = 1.7 million $ USD
US --> Japan (outgoing)= 1.5 million $ USD
US --> Emirates (outgoing)=0.9 million $ USD
US --> Europe (outgoing)=2.2 million $ USD
Total US outgoing around ~17.5 Million
( 10 % = 1.75 Million USD)
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UK --> India (outgoing)= 3.6 million $ USD
UK --> US (outgoing) = 0.6 million $ USD
UK --> Japan (outgoing)= 0.2 million $ USD
UK --> Emirates (outgoing)=0.7 million $ USD
UK --> Europe (outgoing)=1.8 million $ USD
Total US outgoing around ~6.3 Million
( 10 % = 0.63 Million USD)
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UAE --> India (outgoing)= 12.5 million $ USD
UAE --> UK (outgoing) = 0.035 million $ USD
UAE --> Japan (outgoing)= nil
UAE --> US (outgoing)=0.032 million $ USD
UAE --> Europe (outgoing)=0.4 million $ USD
Total US outgoing around ~13 Million
( 10 % = 1.3 Million USD)
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Japan --> India (outgoing)= 0.15 million $ USD
Japan --> UK (outgoing) = 0.022 million $ USD
Japan --> US (outgoing)= 0.17 million $ USD
Japan --> Emirates (outgoing)= nil
Japan --> Europe (outgoing)= 0.1 million $ USD
Total US outgoing around ~0.45 Million
( 10 % = 0.045 Million USD)
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Cumulative Total = 3.725 Million $ USD.
World bank while providing these estimates, says this to include around 15 to 53 % of immigrant worker based remittances. I know bad percent, but to be fair, tracking this is hard. So lets take a simple worst case buffer of 47%.
so that is 3.725 + (3.725 * 0.47 ) ~= 5.5 Million $ USD.
total remittance performed with ripple infrastructure ( as per our realistic assumptions ) is 5.5 Million USD. the fun part of this relatively small number is, this gives very good estimate of a percentage calculate that banks need to maintain regularly in their accounts. Usually around 37% of expected flow in various currency baskets for player currencies. That's the financial industry Goldilocks ( although changes from country to country and regional dynamics, but never the less its safe assumption).
So 37% of 5.5 = 1.925 million $ USD. at current value of (0.006 USD per XRP or around 160 XRP per USD) , there will be a need at the bare minimum to hold around 0.307 Billion (307 million) XRP. this is continuous holding. the bare minimum.
If this one simple bare bottom minimal use case locks 30% of all available XRP at current valuations.. let that line sycn in ... hmmm
So gives us a VERY CLEAR idea of how less 1 billion XRP is at current value, will run out quickly -actually very quickly.
if you ask me, it should at the very least be somewhere around 0.37 to 0.4 cents to be viable. for me personally (no advice of any kind) this is like my minimal growth guarantee based on current real world use cases. and thats merely 10% market share of day to day normal migrant worker home transfer based remittance market. a very small portion of the use-case indeed.
any realistic needs of the ecosystem will need xrp at the least 7 cents and above. and when the traders see this movement do you think they will not hoard any xrp ?
and by the way - this value will not be achieved in some 2020 or 2022 if you ask me. as clearly exhibited with real use case, the japan bank-folk are going live.... by latest 3rd quarter of this year - more stories are developing .... then it has to build up ... So we shoudl see this valuations latest by 2018 end ...
based on this and many other calculations, I feel confident that xrp will atleast be 5 cents by 2018 end. most probably 0.8 usd or more.
