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Nevada is already being called for Hillary Clinton. It's probably over already

Spectrum

Spectrum

Elite Poster
BGOL Investor
He can't win without Nevada. If Latinos are coming out like this, he's cooked. All this horse-race shit is just like it was with Obama vs Romney... a circus to keep you watching.

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Donald Trump will be in Reno on Saturday, but the Republicans almost certainly lost Nevada on Friday.

Trump's path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day -- and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely -- to turn this around. The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid's Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature.

How devastating was it, epitomized by thousands of mostly Latino voters keeping Cardenas market open open in Vegas until 10 PM? This cataclysmic:

----The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall -- approaching 73,000 ballots -- greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points. The 71,000 of 2012 was slightly higher in percentage terms, but raw votes matter. The lead is 14 percentage points -- right at registration. You know what else matters? Registration advantages (142,000 in Clark). Reminder: When the Clark votes were counted from early/mail voting in 2012, Obama had a 69,000 vote lead in Clark County. Game over.

----The statewide lead (some rurals not posted) will be above 45,000 -- slightly under the 48,000 of 2012, but still robust. That's 6 percentage points, or right about at registration. The GOP turnout advantage was under a percent, worse than 2012 when it was 1.1 percent.

----The Dems eked out a 200-vote win in Washoe and lead there by 1,000 votes. It was even in 2012. The rural lead, before the stragglers come in, is 27,500. It probably will get above 28,000.

----Total turnout without those rurals: 768,000, or 52.5 percent. If overall turnout ends up being 80 percent, that means two thirds of the vote is in -- close to 2012. Republicans would have to not only win Election Day by close to double digits to turn around the lead Hillary Clinton almost surely has in early voting, but they would have to astronomically boost turnout. The goal for the Dems during early voting was to bank votes and to boost turnout as high as possible to minimize the number of votes left on Election Day to affect races. Folks, the Reid Machine went out with a bang.

As an exclamation point to a historic night in Nevada, in which Clinton essentially locked up the state and Hispanics, insulted all cycle by Trump, streamed into the market, here is what the final Cardenas numbers showed (tallied by an on-the-ground activist):

1,904 voted
1,258: Ds, 66%
165: Rs, 9%
481: NPs, 25%

So Cardenas was responsible for adding 1,000 to the Democratic lead.

Trump has almost no path to the presidency without Nevada. He can say whatever he wants in Reno on Saturday and boost rural turnout a lot, but he made his own bed when he announced his candidacy.

I'll dive deeper into the numbers later to show just how deep the wave could be Tuesday.
 
D

Day_Carver

Rising Star
BGOL Investor
Spectrum said:
He can't win without Nevada. If Latinos are coming out like this, he's cooked. All this horse-race shit is just like it was with Obama vs Romney... a circus to keep you watching.

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Donald Trump will be in Reno on Saturday, but the Republicans almost certainly lost Nevada on Friday.

Trump's path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day -- and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely -- to turn this around. The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid's Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature.

How devastating was it, epitomized by thousands of mostly Latino voters keeping Cardenas market open open in Vegas until 10 PM? This cataclysmic:

----The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall -- approaching 73,000 ballots -- greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points. The 71,000 of 2012 was slightly higher in percentage terms, but raw votes matter. The lead is 14 percentage points -- right at registration. You know what else matters? Registration advantages (142,000 in Clark). Reminder: When the Clark votes were counted from early/mail voting in 2012, Obama had a 69,000 vote lead in Clark County. Game over.

----The statewide lead (some rurals not posted) will be above 45,000 -- slightly under the 48,000 of 2012, but still robust. That's 6 percentage points, or right about at registration. The GOP turnout advantage was under a percent, worse than 2012 when it was 1.1 percent.

----The Dems eked out a 200-vote win in Washoe and lead there by 1,000 votes. It was even in 2012. The rural lead, before the stragglers come in, is 27,500. It probably will get above 28,000.

----Total turnout without those rurals: 768,000, or 52.5 percent. If overall turnout ends up being 80 percent, that means two thirds of the vote is in -- close to 2012. Republicans would have to not only win Election Day by close to double digits to turn around the lead Hillary Clinton almost surely has in early voting, but they would have to astronomically boost turnout. The goal for the Dems during early voting was to bank votes and to boost turnout as high as possible to minimize the number of votes left on Election Day to affect races. Folks, the Reid Machine went out with a bang.

As an exclamation point to a historic night in Nevada, in which Clinton essentially locked up the state and Hispanics, insulted all cycle by Trump, streamed into the market, here is what the final Cardenas numbers showed (tallied by an on-the-ground activist):

1,904 voted
1,258: Ds, 66%
165: Rs, 9%
481: NPs, 25%

So Cardenas was responsible for adding 1,000 to the Democratic lead.

Trump has almost no path to the presidency without Nevada. He can say whatever he wants in Reno on Saturday and boost rural turnout a lot, but he made his own bed when he announced his candidacy.

I'll dive deeper into the numbers later to show just how deep the wave could be Tuesday.
Click to expand...
Been over bro; all this shit is for entertainment and to keep people watching; she's gonna win easily and they gonna be acting like how was that possible; all along knowing she was going to win easily....
 
BDR

BDR

BeatDownRecs
BGOL Investor
Spectrum said:
He can't win without Nevada. If Latinos are coming out like this, he's cooked. All this horse-race shit is just like it was with Obama vs Romney... a circus to keep you watching.

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Donald Trump will be in Reno on Saturday, but the Republicans almost certainly lost Nevada on Friday.

Trump's path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day -- and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely -- to turn this around. The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid's Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature.

How devastating was it, epitomized by thousands of mostly Latino voters keeping Cardenas market open open in Vegas until 10 PM? This cataclysmic:

----The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall -- approaching 73,000 ballots -- greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points. The 71,000 of 2012 was slightly higher in percentage terms, but raw votes matter. The lead is 14 percentage points -- right at registration. You know what else matters? Registration advantages (142,000 in Clark). Reminder: When the Clark votes were counted from early/mail voting in 2012, Obama had a 69,000 vote lead in Clark County. Game over.

----The statewide lead (some rurals not posted) will be above 45,000 -- slightly under the 48,000 of 2012, but still robust. That's 6 percentage points, or right about at registration. The GOP turnout advantage was under a percent, worse than 2012 when it was 1.1 percent.

----The Dems eked out a 200-vote win in Washoe and lead there by 1,000 votes. It was even in 2012. The rural lead, before the stragglers come in, is 27,500. It probably will get above 28,000.

----Total turnout without those rurals: 768,000, or 52.5 percent. If overall turnout ends up being 80 percent, that means two thirds of the vote is in -- close to 2012. Republicans would have to not only win Election Day by close to double digits to turn around the lead Hillary Clinton almost surely has in early voting, but they would have to astronomically boost turnout. The goal for the Dems during early voting was to bank votes and to boost turnout as high as possible to minimize the number of votes left on Election Day to affect races. Folks, the Reid Machine went out with a bang.

As an exclamation point to a historic night in Nevada, in which Clinton essentially locked up the state and Hispanics, insulted all cycle by Trump, streamed into the market, here is what the final Cardenas numbers showed (tallied by an on-the-ground activist):

1,904 voted
1,258: Ds, 66%
165: Rs, 9%
481: NPs, 25%

So Cardenas was responsible for adding 1,000 to the Democratic lead.

Trump has almost no path to the presidency without Nevada. He can say whatever he wants in Reno on Saturday and boost rural turnout a lot, but he made his own bed when he announced his candidacy.

I'll dive deeper into the numbers later to show just how deep the wave could be Tuesday.
Click to expand...

CNN has made over 1 billion in profit from advertising and sound bites from Trump this election cycle...

I know one thing when she's elected she better take a fuckin hammer to the FBI
 
Hotlantan

Hotlantan

Beep beep. Who's got the keys to the Jeep? VROOM!
BGOL Investor
Not sure why the media kept pretending that Nevada was ever in play. Obama won that state twice and Bill Clinton won that state twice. Harry Reid held his office with minimal challenge for 30 years and is the ONLY retiring Democratic Senator in the entire country. Unlike some other nearby states, the majority of people in Nevada live in the urban areas, and a growing number of those are Latino and not fans of "walls".
 
jagu

jagu

Rising Star
Platinum Member
Hotlantan said:
Not sure why the media kept pretending that Nevada was ever in play. Obama won that state twice and Bill Clinton won that state twice. Harry Reid held his office with minimal challenge for 30 years and is the ONLY retiring Democratic Senator in the entire country. Unlike some other nearby states, the majority of people in Nevada live in the urban areas, and a growing number of those are Latino and not fans of "walls".
Click to expand...
Well said.
 
BigDaddyBuk

BigDaddyBuk

still not dizzy.
Platinum Member
so is Florida.

Today, the county is majority Latino, thanks in part to large numbers of Puerto Rican migrants moving to Central Florida. Unlike Hispanic immigrants, Puerto Ricans are already U.S. citizens, and can register to vote the day they step off the plane.

And this election, perhaps because of Republican nominee Donald Trump, they seem to be doing precisely that. Of the early votes cast by Friday, close to one-third of the Hispanic voters had never voted in an election before. And polling makes clear that they are overwhelmingly voting for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

“That, my friends, is the definition of a surge,” said Steve Schale, the Democratic strategist who helped win the state twice for President Barack Obama and has been closely analyzing the early voting numbers in Florida for two weeks.
 
Watcher

Watcher

Rising Star
Platinum Member
Spectrum said:
He can't win without Nevada. If Latinos are coming out like this, he's cooked. All this horse-race shit is just like it was with Obama vs Romney... a circus to keep you watching.

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Donald Trump will be in Reno on Saturday, but the Republicans almost certainly lost Nevada on Friday.

Trump's path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day -- and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely -- to turn this around. The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid's Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature.

How devastating was it, epitomized by thousands of mostly Latino voters keeping Cardenas market open open in Vegas until 10 PM? This cataclysmic:

----The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall -- approaching 73,000 ballots -- greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points. The 71,000 of 2012 was slightly higher in percentage terms, but raw votes matter. The lead is 14 percentage points -- right at registration. You know what else matters? Registration advantages (142,000 in Clark). Reminder: When the Clark votes were counted from early/mail voting in 2012, Obama had a 69,000 vote lead in Clark County. Game over.

----The statewide lead (some rurals not posted) will be above 45,000 -- slightly under the 48,000 of 2012, but still robust. That's 6 percentage points, or right about at registration. The GOP turnout advantage was under a percent, worse than 2012 when it was 1.1 percent.

----The Dems eked out a 200-vote win in Washoe and lead there by 1,000 votes. It was even in 2012. The rural lead, before the stragglers come in, is 27,500. It probably will get above 28,000.

----Total turnout without those rurals: 768,000, or 52.5 percent. If overall turnout ends up being 80 percent, that means two thirds of the vote is in -- close to 2012. Republicans would have to not only win Election Day by close to double digits to turn around the lead Hillary Clinton almost surely has in early voting, but they would have to astronomically boost turnout. The goal for the Dems during early voting was to bank votes and to boost turnout as high as possible to minimize the number of votes left on Election Day to affect races. Folks, the Reid Machine went out with a bang.

As an exclamation point to a historic night in Nevada, in which Clinton essentially locked up the state and Hispanics, insulted all cycle by Trump, streamed into the market, here is what the final Cardenas numbers showed (tallied by an on-the-ground activist):

1,904 voted
1,258: Ds, 66%
165: Rs, 9%
481: NPs, 25%

So Cardenas was responsible for adding 1,000 to the Democratic lead.

Trump has almost no path to the presidency without Nevada. He can say whatever he wants in Reno on Saturday and boost rural turnout a lot, but he made his own bed when he announced his candidacy.

I'll dive deeper into the numbers later to show just how deep the wave could be Tuesday.
Click to expand...
No

Donald Trump is on track to double Gov. Mitt Romney’s support among African-American voters, according to a series of state polls.
In 2012, African-Americans comprised a record 13 percent of all voters. President Barack Obama was reelected with 93 percent of the African-American vote, leaving Gov. Mitt Romney with only 6 percent of the African-American vote. Obama is now campaigning against Trump, and hoping to keep his share of the African-American vote below the 11 percent that George W. Bush won in 2004 during the housing bubble.

On Friday, a poll of 506 Pennsylvania voters by showed Trump has the support of 18.46 percent of African-Americans. That’s eight points more than Romney’s share of the national vote in 2012, and if it proves true during the ballot, that 18.46 percent African-American support translates into 2 point shift towards Trump. The poll also said another 4.6 percent were undecided.
 
N

Non-StopJFK2TAB

Rising Star
Platinum Member
Spectrum said:
Man. Stop posting this bullshit scare-tactics stuff. It has no basis in reality. I posted ballot numbers. Your post doesn't cite the polling company, the polling method, and the number of people polled is extremely small. It's meaningless.
Click to expand...
Double Mitts numbers? That sounds extremely minuscule.
 
Watcher

Watcher

Rising Star
Platinum Member
Spectrum said:
Man. Stop posting this bullshit scare-tactics stuff. It has no basis in reality. I posted ballot numbers. Your post doesn't cite the polling company, the polling method, and the number of people polled is extremely small. It's meaningless.
Click to expand...
1:23 mark

 
Watcher

Watcher

Rising Star
Platinum Member
Spectrum said:
These aren't polls. These numbers aren't being promoted by the GOP. These are dems in Nevada giving you the early voting data :lol:
Click to expand...
Real data....

Maine

Maine’s 2nd congressional district moved from “battleground” to “lean Republican.” Maine splits up its four electoral votes, with two going to the statewide winner and one going to the winner in each of the two congressional districts.

Trump has made appearances in Maine’s 2nd, hoping to steal at least one electoral vote in a state that usually votes Democrat. The vast 2nd district covers a majority of the state in terms of land, while the 1st district includes the state’s population centers of Portland and Augusta. A recent poll showed that voters in the 2nd district are split between Clinton and Trump.

New Hampshire

CNN moved New Hampshire from “lean Democrat” to “battleground.”A Nov. 3 Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll showed a dead heat between Clinton and Trump for the granite state. The poll revealed that 52 percent of independent voters said that the FBI announcement made them less likely to vote for Clinton.

Incumbent New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte has rebounded in the waning day of a bruising race against Gov. Maggie Hasson, after being down as many as 8 points just two weeks ago. The embattled Senator has distanced herself from the GOP nominee, telling a local radio station that she wouldn’t want her daughter in a room with Donald Trump or Bill Clinton, but added “this isn’t about my daughter.”

Ohio

The Cable News Network moved Ohio from from “battleground” to “lean Republican.” Early-voting data out of Ohio revealed a drastic decline in early-vote requests by Democrats compared to this time in 2012. Requests are down 35 percent in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland area), a county which President Barack Obama won by 256,613 in 2012 (Obama won statewide by 166,272).

Recent polls have Trump up five in the Buckeye state, and incumbent Senator Rob Portman is enjoying a 15-point lead over Democratic candidate, Gov. Ted Strickland. Sen. Portman’s appeal may not all “trickle up” to Trump, but along with lower turnout from uninspired democratic voters in the state’s population centers, the GOP nominee is in a strong position in Ohio.

Trump will benefit from a robust state-party apparatus and his own campaign’s strong presence. A federal judge issued a restraining order against the Donald Trump campaign, Roger stone and his Political Action Committee from, conspiring to intimidate, threaten, harass, or coerce voters on Election Day,” after the Ohio Democratic party accused the Republican party of intimidating voters.

Utah

John King and company moved Utah from “battleground” to “lean Republican.” Historically a safe Republican state, Utah has voted for the Republican nominee every time since 1964, when the state chose Lyndon Johnson over conservative icon Barry Goldwater.

The most recent polls show Trump with a five – seven point lead in Utah, despite 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s very public rebuke of Trump. Romney is well respected in Mormon circles, and his opposition to Trump is likely to sway Mormon voters, who were already turned off by his brash style, away from Trump.

Former Washington, D.C. policy professional Evan McMullin entered the race three months ago as the “Never Trump” candidate, and is now focusing his entire campaign in Utah, infuriating Republicans and conservative leaders alike.

CNN also lists Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as “likely democrat” but not “safely democrat.” (RELATED: Trump Surging, Now Tied With Clinton In Michigan)
 
Watcher

Watcher

Rising Star
Platinum Member
Spectrum said:
I'm not even watching that shit. That's early voting data I'm posting. You've been obsessively posting "trump can still win" shit as a scare tactic. I get what you're trying to do, but keep that shit in your threads man.
Click to expand...
Of course you won't. You will just post what you feel you know.

The irony of it all is your actions and this thread is part of the reason Trump has a chance to win.
 
Spectrum

Spectrum

Elite Poster
BGOL Investor
Watcher said:
Of course you won't. You will just post what you feel you know.

The irony of it all is your actions and this thread is part of the reason Trump has a chance to win.
Click to expand...

Shut the fuck up. I'm not posting "feelings". I posted actual early voting data. Take that shit somewhere else clown.
 
Watcher

Watcher

Rising Star
Platinum Member
Spectrum said:
Do you know what data is? If you're not posting actual early voting data in Nevada to negate what's been published, go have a seat.

Polls are guestimates. Actually votes are real.
Click to expand...
Real enough for you?

Early voting update: Black vote declining with 24.4 million ballots cast

Washington (CNN)A dip in African-American turnout has knocked Democratic early voting numbers off their 2012 pace in key battleground states like North Carolina.

The trend is also evident in early vote data from other swing states that could play key roles in deciding the election, including Florida and Georgia.
More Latino voters, however, are among the more than 24.4 million American voters who have already cast their ballots -- including 12.4 million in battleground states -- according to a CNN analysis of the latest early voting numbers.
Republicans appear to be in better position than they were in previous presidential elections in Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio, while Democrats have improved their standing in Colorado and Arizona.
 
Spectrum

Spectrum

Elite Poster
BGOL Investor
Watcher said:
Real enough for you?


Washington (CNN)A dip in African-American turnout has knocked Democratic early voting numbers off their 2012 pace in key battleground states like North Carolina.
Click to expand...

Voter suppression in North Carolina. I posted about that MONTHS ago. Your article is 4 days old though and the pace of early voting for black people has been accelerating.

So what does that have to do with my fucking post about early counted ballots in Nevada? Nothing. In Nevada they actually count the fucking ballots. They don't do that in all those states you posted. Don't come in my threads with that scare tactics bullshit. You have your marching orders to scare up people with the "trump can still shit". Take that shit somewhere else.

You don't need to make threads ever other minutes and come up in every thread with "Trump can still win".
 
Watcher

Watcher

Rising Star
Platinum Member
Spectrum said:
Voter suppression in North Carolina. I posted about that MONTHS ago. Your article is 4 days old though and the pace of early voting for black people has been accelerating.

So what does that have to do with my fucking post about early counted ballots in Nevada? Nothing. Don't come in my threads with that scare tactics bullshit. You have your marching orders to scare up people with the "trump can still shit". Take that shit somewhere else.

You don't need to make threads ever other minutes and come up in every thread with "Trump can still win".
Click to expand...
Nothing with Nevada. Winning Nevada doesn't clinch it for Clinton

You are proclaiming it's over. Completely irresponsible
 

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