2011 NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST PREDICTIONS
ATLANTA BRAVES
ATLANTA BRAVES
Projected Rotation
Tim Hudson (RH)
Derek Lowe (RH)
Jair Jurrjens (RHP)
Tommy Hanson (RH)
Mike Minor (LH)
Grade: B ------------ Hudson and Derek Lowe had solid seasons last year, but they are not getting any younger. Jurrjens has talent, but is coming off knee surgery. This staff could go either way, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt.
Projected Bullpen
Jonny Venters (Closer)
Peter Moylan
Eric O’Flaherty
Craig Kimbrel
George Sherrill
Scott Linebrink
Scott Proctor
Grade: C+ ------------ There’s young talent in Venters and Kimbrel, but any bullpen where Scott Linebrink is expected to carry a heavy load will see many dark days.
Projected Lineup
Leadoff - Martin Prado (LF)
2. Nate McLouth (CF)
3. Chipper Jones (3B)
4. Bryan McCann (C)
5. Jason Heyward (RF)
6. Dan Uggla (2B)
7. Alex Gonzalez (SS)
8. Freddie Freeman (1B)
Grade: B+ ------------ A good lineup got even better with the addition of Dan Uggla. Jason Heyward should be even better with an entire year under his belt. Yet, the Braves are counting on an injured old warhorse to be an integral part of the lineup. If Chipper can stay healthy (a BIG if) this lineup can do some real damage.
Manager - Fredi Gonzalez
Grade: B -------------- Fredi Gonzalez has shown signs of being an outstanding manager, but he’s never had to replace an all-time great. Based on his past performance, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.
There are question marks in the starting rotation and particulrly in the bullpen. But, if they stay relatively healthy and Jason Heyward continues his development as a top-line player, the Braves should make life interesting for the Phillies this summer.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Projected Rotation:
Roy Halladay (RH)
Cliff Lee (LH)
Roy Oswalt (RH)
Cole Hamels (LH)
Joe Blanton (RH)
Grade: A --------------- They won't be the unbeatable world-conquerers many people think, but they should be awfully good, and fun to watch (particularly since my team is in the American League).
Projected Bullpen
Brad Lidge (Closer)
Jose Contreras
Ryan Madson
Kyle Kendrick
Danys Baez
J. C. Romero
Antonio Bastardo
Grade: C ---------------- A bullpen with Brad Lidge as a closer and with Jose Contreras in a major league uniform at all is one that I wouldn’t trust as far as I could throw. The starting staff is predicted to be one of the best in baseball history. With this bullpen, they'll need to be.
Everyday Lineup
Leadoff - Jimmy Rollins (SS)
2. Placido Palanco (3B)
3. Chase Utley (2B)
4. Ryan Howard (1B)
5. Shane Victorino (CF)
6. Raul Ibanez (LF)
7. Ben Francisco (RF)
8. Carlos Ruiz (C)
Grade: A ---------------- They have to replace a lot of run production with the departure of Jayson Werth, plus the starting lineup features two talented but constantly fragile members in Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. Yet, this is a frightening lineup on paper. It'll be interesting if they can live up to expectations.
Top Prospect - Domonic Brown (RF)
Manager - Charlie Manual
Grade: B ---------------- I’ve never been impressed by this guy, but his players seem to respond to him, and he doesn’t ruin a pitching staff (at least as far as I can see). So, while I don’t see him as a major asset, he’s good enough not to be a major flaw.
The Phillies are the latest in a long line of “can’t miss” teams in baseball history that everyone assumes will have a clear track to the World Series. But there’s a reason why the championship trophy isn’t awarded at the end of March. I don't think for a minute they will stroll peacefully along to the National League pennant? Yet, there’s just too much talent here for this team not to win the East.
FLORIDA MARLINS
Projected Rotation
Josh Johnson (RH)
Ricky Nolasco (RH)
Javier Vasquez (RH)
Anibal Sanchez (RH)
Chris Volstad (RH)
Grade: B ---------------- Any staff with Josh Johnson as a #1 will get my attention. He may be one of the 5 or 6 best starters in the game. The rotation is solid all around, and at least for the regular season, it’s a better staff with the addition of Javier “Little Game” Vasquez. The most aggravating pitcher in baseball (in my opinion), he has some of the most overpowering stuff in the game. Yet, when the stakes are highest, no set of nuts in the game shrink faster. As long as the big game lights stay off in Miami and no money is on the table, "Little Game Vasquez"will give Florida a lot of strikeouts, at least 200 innings, and 12-15 wins.
Projected Bullpen
Leo Nunez (Closer)
Mike Dunn (LH)
Randy Choate (LH)
Edward Mujica (RH)
Ryan Webb (RH)
Clay Hensley (RH)
Burke Badenhop (RH)
Brian Sanchez (RH)
Grade: B- ---------------- The Marlins bullpen is solid, unspectacular, and very young. Yet, it is filled with really good arms, and has the potential to be really good.
Projected Lineup
Leadoff - Chris Coghlan (CF)
2. Omar Infante (2B)
3. Hanley Ramirez (SS)
4. Mike Stanton (RF)
5. Gaby Sanchez (1B)
6. Logan Morrison (LF)
7. John Buck (C)
8. Matt Dominguez (3B)
Grade: B- ---------------- The lineup has some young, unproven, yet exciting talent, mainly rookie Matt Dominguez. Plus, the 3-4 combination of Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton could grow to be one of the best offensive tandems in the National League.
Manager - Edwin Rodriguez
Grade: ? ---------------- I haven’t seen enough of him to form an intelligent opinion? Comments from knowledgeable Marlins observers are welcome.
Losing Dan Uggla will hurt the offense, but the Marlins will rise and fall on the strength of their pitching staff which, by and large, should be very good. They won’t challenge for a post-season slot this year, but they should have a winning record.
NEW YORK METS
Projected Rotation
Chris Young (RH)
Chris Capuano (LH)
R.A. Dickey (RH)
John Niese (LH)
Mike Pelfrey (RH)
Grade: C ---------------- (I’m in a generous mood Game Plan!) This rotation desperately needs the return of a healthy Johan Santana, which probably won’t be until late in 2011, if at all. This rotation also needs the complete development of Jenrry Mejia, which will mean not rushing him up too soon. Yet, with the look of this rotation, the temptation might be too great for Terry Collins to do otherwise. Mike Pelfrey will need to be really good from April on for the Mets to stay relevant this year.
Projected Bullpen
Francisco Rodriguez (Closer)
Taylor Buchholz (RH)
Pedro Beato (RH)
Taylor Tankersley (LH)
D.J. Carrasco (RH)
Bobby Parnell (RH)
Grade: C ----------------- Assuming K-Rod has gotten over the family harmony of last season, he may be the key to any semblance of a decent season for the Mets. Getting Carrasco will help and Bobby Parnell can be good at times, plus there’s hope that Jason Isringhausen can somehow reclaim his fastball in time to be a presence on this staff. Yet, this bullpen has the potential to be a train wreck.
Projected Lineup
Leadoff - Jose Reyes
2. Angel Pagan (CF)
3. David Wright (3B)
4. Carlos Beltran (RF)
5, Jason Bay (LF)
6. Ike Davis (1B)
7. Josh Thole (C)
8. Ruben Tejada (2B) ???
Grade: C ----------------- Like the Phillies, the Mets are counting on guys whose health won’t allow them to be reliable. Does anyone really expect to have Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran around for at least 150 games? Yet, this is exactly what they’ll need to have for any real chance to compete. Jason Bay won’t be as bad as he was in 2010, plus the Mets (and Game Plan) are hoping for their much-anticipated rookie Brad Emaus or Ruben Tejada to unseat Luis Castillo at second base. I’m predicting that he will eventually hit at a sufficient major-league level to take the job.
Manager - Terry Collins
Grade: B ------------------ The Mets have already taken a step in the right direction divesting themselves of Omar Minaya upstairs and Jerry Manual on the field. Collins has proven to be a quality manager in the past, and he could be in the future with the Mets, if given the proper talent.
The Mets could go either way, yet, with the Wilpon cloud hanging over the whole team, there doesn’t seem to be much hope for optimism. If the Mets have exceptionally good health this year, it could be an entertaining summer. If not................? Mets fans, what do you think?
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Projected Rotation
Livan Hernandez (RH)
Tom Gorzelanny (LH)
Jason Marquis (RH)
John Lannan (LH)
Jordan Zimmerman (RH)
Grade: C- ----------------- There are too many question marks at play with this pitching staff. Livan Hernandez has been good, but he’s 135 years old, and he could go south at any time. Zimmerman is still finding himself after having his rotator cuff replaced, and Jason Marquis will always be up and down. In truth, this staff will be marking time until Steven Strasburg’s return in 2012.
Projected Bullpen
Drew Storen (Closer)
Henry Rodriguez (RH)
Tyler Clippert (RH)
Sean Burnett (LH)
Todd Coffey (RH)
Collin Balester (RH)
Doug Slaten (LH)
Grade: ? ------------------ To be frank, I’ve only seen two Nationals games in the past year. I tend to avoid them. I just peeked in to see if the hype about Strasburg was legitimate. Any input from knowledgeable Nationals watchers would be welcome.
Projected Lineup
Leadoff - Nyler Morgan (CF)
2. Ian Desmond (SS)
3. Ryan Zimmerman (3B)
4. Jayson Werth (RF)
5. Adam LaRoche (1B)
6. Roger Bernadina (LF)
7. Danny Espinosa (2B)
8. Ivan Rodriguez (C)
Grade C ----------------- For the most part, my answer here is the same as for the bullpen, but the 3-4-5 combination of Zimmerman, Werth and LaRoche should be interesting to watch. Werth will add desperately needed numbers the team will be missing from the loss of Adam Dunn (to my White Sox!!!!), but unless there’s a complete implosion in New York, it won’t be enough to get them out of the cellar of the East.
Manager - Jim Riggleman
Grade B ------------------ Riggs is a solid manager who has done a good job everywhere he’s gone, and will do fine with what he has to work with in Washington.
2011 NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST PREDICTION
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals
Comments and critiques are welcome. National League Central predictions will be next.
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