Donald Trump Needs 7 of 10 White GuysThe changing face of America means he'll need a historic sweep. What are we in for now?
p o l i t i c o
By David S. Bernstein
March 04, 2016
AP Photo
“I don't think that Trump can win, frankly," wrote Bill James last week, before adding dismissively: "because I don't think there are enough morons to elect him." James, a revered baseball statistician and consultant whose work has transformed the business of sports, cited some back-of-the-napkin math to support his theory. Not to argue with the godfather of Moneyball, but in Donald Trump's case, the problem may be much clearer: The problem is that there aren't enough white men.
If Trump wins the GOP nomination, he will be testing the limits of a strategy that has long haunted the Republican Party. Since the civil rights era, the Republicans have relied heavily upon white male voters in order to overcome a disadvantage among minorities and some subsets of women. Mathematically, that was an easier strategy a half-century ago, when white men dominated the electorate. But as the GOP failed to broaden its coalition and the demographics of America have shifted dramatically, an ever-greater percentage of white men has been required to secure a GOP victory.
And if, as it appears, Trump’s opponent in the general election is Hillary Clinton, his lane becomes even narrower. If things continue the way they’ve been going, just how much of the non-Hispanic white-guy vote would he need to win?
The math suggests Trump would need a whopping 70% of white men to vote for him. That’s more than Republicans have ever won before – more than the GOP won in the landslide victories of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and far more than they won even during the racially polarized elections of Barack Obama.
Of course, the argument often made by Trump’s followers is that he will win in November because he will bring so many disengaged Americans to the polls. But they’re talking about disengaged white voters, mostly mostly men— and unfortunately for him, the turnout rate for white men is already relatively high.
He can, and presumably will, try broadening his appeal by pivoting. When Trump clinches the GOP nod, he may attempt what Mitt Romney aide Eric Fehrnstrom once called the “Etch-A-Sketch” campaign relaunch—to restyle himself as a more palatable general election candidate. But given his commitment to a wall on the Mexican border and a ban on Muslim immigration, and given his flirtations with racism and fascism, he’s likely done too much damage to salvage much crossover appeal.
"We have consistently seen how Trump approaches this Big White
Squeeze: by pitting white men against others not like them."
Squeeze: by pitting white men against others not like them."
If that doesn’t work, his only hope is doubling down on his appeal to white guys. We have consistently seen how Trump approaches this Big White Squeeze: by pitting white men against others not like them.
Last August, he described the beating, with a metal pipe, of a homeless immigrant in Boston as the work of “passionate” followers who “want this country to be great again.”
- He infamously called for banning all Muslims from travel into the United States.
- He has demeaned nearly every woman who has confronted him in any meaningful way.
- And on Sunday, with six Southern states about to hold their primaries, Trump declined to denounce David Duke and the Ku Klux Klan.
The more Trump does these things to generate votes, the more he incites people from outside this lily-white, mostly-male bloc to vote against him. In a deepening spiral, that requires he’ll then need to squeeze still more white male votes. Which begs a disturbing question:
What will Donald Trump do when he realizes he needs to win an unprecedented 70 percent of white men?
* * *
The overwhelming fact about American general elections right now is that the white male voter just isn’t as powerful as he used to be.
- In 1980, when the electorate looked very different than it does today, Ronald Reagan cruised to an easy victory by winning 63% of white males, according to exit polls.
- In 1988, George H.W. Bush took 63% of that group in his rout of Michael Dukakis.
- By 2004, however, winning 62% of white men barely got George W. Bush past John Kerry in a squeaker.
- And eight years later (2012), Romney won 62% of white men—and lost by three and a half million votes to Barack Obama.
The GOP establishment, or what’s left of it, realized this several years ago, and tried to fight it. Following the 2012 election, the Republican National Committee issued a harsh post-mortem focusing on the need to change the party’s image among minorities and women. “The nation’s demographic changes add to the urgency of recognizing how precarious how our position has become,” it proclaimed. “Unless Republicans are able to grow our appeal…the changes tilt the playing field even more in the Democratic direction.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/donald-trump-needs-7-of-10-white-guys-213699#ixzz428Vbo9Iv
