Trump Is in Trouble.

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Trump Is in Trouble. Here's How Much Worse It Can Get

http://time.com/5375650/trump-cohen...time&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com


By BRIAN BENNETT
5:45 AM EDT
Michael Cohen once believed he would lead Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.

When that didn’t come to pass, he told friends he might be White House chief of staff. That didn’t happen either, but still he swore he’d “take a bullet” for Trump. In the end, the President’s longtime personal lawyer stood before a federal judge in a New York City courthouse on Aug. 21 and swore to something else entirely: that he had engaged in a crime coordinated by the man who now sits in the Oval Office.

Even in a presidency punctuated by surreal moments, it was a stunning scene. Cohen pleaded guilty to eight felony counts, including arranging payments during the 2016 campaign to suppress two women’s accounts of alleged extramarital affairs with Trump. “I participated in this conduct,” Cohen avowed, “in coordination with and at the direction of” Trump himself. With that extraordinary statement, he implicated the President of the United States in a federal crime–to be violating campaign-finance laws–the “principal purpose,” of which he said, was to influence an election that Trump won by only 78,000 votes in three states.

The courtroom drama brought all the President’s legal and political problems together in a single supernova. It highlighted Trump’s sordid history with women, his willingness to blur the lines between business and politics, and growing fallout from the investigation led by special counsel Robert Mueller, who referred the Cohen case to federal prosecutors. Worse, the explosion came minutes after Trump’s onetime campaign chairman Paul Manafort was convicted on eight counts of tax evasion and bank fraud in a case prosecuted by Mueller’s deputies. And it followed revelations that White House counsel Don McGahn has cooperated extensively with Mueller’s probe, sitting for more than 30 hours of detailed and candid interviews.

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Michael Cohen, the President’s longtime personal lawyer, leaves federal court in Manhattan on Aug. 21

Andres Kudacki—The New York Times/Redux
It was arguably the most pivotal day in this presidency, and the consequences are only beginning to kick in. Cohen’s plea raised questions that cut to the heart of Trump’s legitimacy. If Trump was willing to deploy his vast fortune to quash salacious stories, as Cohen alleges, what else might he have used his wealth for? What other damaging information could the President’s former fixer share? And what scrutiny awaits Trump’s business empire, which the President has sought to shield from the widening probes?


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For now, Trump may not pay a political or legal price. He has benefited from an unshakable bond with his base: even as criminal investigations seep further into his inner circle, Trump has averaged an 87% approval rating from Republicans so far in his second year, according to Gallup. And many legal experts believe that as President he cannot be indicted for a crime while in office. “He did nothing wrong,” said White House spokesperson Sarah Huckabee Sanders on Aug. 22. “There are no charges against him in this. And just because Michael Cohen has made a deal doesn’t mean that that implicates the President on anything.”

There was no question, however, that the late-August events mark a new and dangerous phase for Trump. “For the first time,” says former federal prosecutor David Axelrod, “we’ve seen, in court, evidence strongly linking the President to criminal acts.” That testimony, offered under oath by the President’s former lawyer, will only embolden Mueller and energize Trump’s Democratic opponents. It left West Wing staffers scrambling to soothe their furious boss. And it carried unmistakable echoes of John Dean’s turn against Richard Nixon in 1973, along with the growing sense that a presidency suffused with scandal is confronting its toughest fight yet.

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Trump at an Aug. 21 rally in Charleston, W.Va., hours after the Cohen bombshell

Leah Millis—Reuters
In a fitting twist for a President from New York City, the trouble began with taxis. In addition to his day job as a Trump Organization executive, Cohen dabbled in real estate, medical businesses and even an offshore casino boat. By 2010, according to court documents, Cohen had also bought a portfolio of taxi medallions, the metal placards that allow drivers to operate cabs in cities like New York and Chicago. Cohen leased the medallions to drivers and, according to his plea, failed to report all of the profits to the IRS. In one scheme between 2012 and 2016, Cohen earned more than $2.4 million in interest from loans he made to a taxi operator who leased some of his Chicago medallions. In another, Cohen failed to report $1.3 million in income for a different taxi operator who paid Cohen personally for part of the leases, rather than Cohen’s medallion company. Cohen also didn’t report $100,000 he received for brokering a Florida real estate deal, or a $30,000 fee he charged in 2015 for arranging the sale of a Birkin bag, a high-priced French handbag. In total, he confessed to concealing more than $4 million in personal income.

Suspicion that Cohen had engaged in tax evasion and bank fraud led Mueller to refer the matter to investigators in New York’s Southern District. On April 9, the FBI stormed Cohen’s hotel room, apartment, law office and bank boxes, collecting computers, cell phones, tax records and other materials. The raid was unusual not only because Cohen had been the President’s personal lawyer but also because prosecutors have to get special permission from a judge before raiding a lawyer’s property unannounced to avoid violating attorney-client privilege.

The evidence uncovered led to the Aug. 21 plea deal. Unveiling it, prosecutors released new details about Cohen’s role in arranging payments to two women, former Playboy model Karen McDougal and pornographic actor Stephanie Clifford, who performs under the name Stormy Daniels, to quash embarrassing stories about their alleged liaisons with Trump. In the summer of 2015, according to court documents, David Pecker, a Trump friend and the chairman of American Media Inc., the company that publishes the National Enquirer, told Cohen he would act as something of a fixer for the campaign. Cohen told prosecutors that Pecker agreed to “help deal with negative stories” about Trump’s “relationships with women.” He offered to assist the campaign in “identifying such stories so they could be purchased and their publication avoided,” a practice known in the tabloid industry as “catch and kill.”

In June 2016, a month before Trump became the Republican nominee for President, Pecker alerted Cohen that McDougal had offered to sell the Enquirer the story of her affair with Trump, which allegedly took place shortly after Trump’s wife Melania gave birth to their son Barron, according to court documents. Cohen told prosecutors he urged Pecker to buy the story and promised to reimburse the magazine. Pecker’s company paid McDougal $150,000 for the rights to the story, which the Enquirer never published. The “principal purpose” of the deal, Cohen told prosecutors, was to suppress the story to prevent it from influencing the election. In late July 2018, Cohen’s attorney Lanny Davis released a secret audio recording from September 2016 in which Cohen tells Trump “we’ll have to pay” to purchase the rights to McDougal’s story. Trump responds, “Pay with cash.”

Around Oct. 8, 2016, an agent for Clifford approached an editor at American Media about telling the story of her own alleged affair with Trump. It was the day after the release of the bombshell videotape of Trump on the Access Hollywood set, bragging to “purchase [her] silence,” according to Cohen’s plea.

When Cohen failed to pay Clifford immediately, Clifford’s then attorney told the editor that she would take her story to another publication. The editor texted Cohen, according to court documents, telling him, we “have to coordinate something … or it could look awfully bad for everyone.” Two days later, Cohen wired $130,000 to Clifford’s attorney, and Clifford signed a nondisclosure agreement, according to the court documents.

Cohen was reimbursed for his payment to Clifford by the Trump Organization in monthly installments of $35,000, the court records show. The Trump Organization itemized the invoices as legal services, even though Cohen had not provided any, according to the plea.

All this end ran federal laws barring campaign contributions of more than $27,000 by an individual or any amount by a corporation. Legal experts say that if Trump had paid Cohen out of his own bank account, it would not have been a violation of campaign-finance law. “It’s because he chose to use the corporate coffers to reimburse Cohen that you get this additional violation of federal law by the Trump Organization, and by extension Donald Trump himself,” says Paul S. Ryan, vice president of policy and litigation at Common Cause, a nonpartisan organization that filed complaints with the Department of Justice and the Federal Election Commission earlier this year regarding the campaign’s payments to Clifford and American Media.

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Trump and Cohen visit Portsmouth, N.H., in April 2011

Rick Friedman—Polaris
If anyone imagined that these sordid details didn’t add up to serious legal jeopardy for Trump, the top law-enforcement officials on the case set them straight after the Aug. 21 hearing. As the U.S. prosecutor on the case, Robert Khuzami, said, “We are a nation of laws, with one set of rules that applies equally to everyone.” William F. Sweeney Jr., the FBI’s top New York cop, chimed in that “we are all expected to follow the rule of law.” And James Robnett, the special agent in charge of the IRS’s New York Criminal Investigation unit said Cohen’s plea “sends a clear message that the tax laws apply to everybody.”

And the transactions open up problems for the President that go beyond his implication in a federal crime. By confessing that he invoiced the Trump Organization, Cohen may draw increased scrutiny to the company’s books. That could result in the closest look yet at the finances of a President who has steadfastly refused to release his tax returns.

Already, some Trump antagonists have seized on Cohen’s statements as supporting evidence in their own ongoing legal battles. “The likelihood of me being able to depose Michael Cohen and the President of the United States just went up exponentially,” says Michael Avenatti, Clifford’s attorney, whose motion to take testimony from both men awaits a hearing. A California judge had stayed the case pending the outcome of the Cohen investigation. A hearing on whether to lift the stay is scheduled for Sept. 10 in Los Angeles.

All this would be worrisome enough for the President if his problems ended with Cohen. But they don’t. In the same hour the lawyer pleaded guilty to eight felonies in Manhattan, Manafort was facing the music in a courtroom outside Washington. His conviction on eight criminal charges–two counts of bank fraud, five counts of tax fraud and one count of failing to disclose foreign bank accounts–illustrates the depth and breadth Mueller’s investigation. That probe has already resulted in more than 100 criminal charges against 33 people and three companies and secured guilty pleas from Manafort’s longtime deputy Rick Gates, former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and former Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos.

During the Manafort trial, federal prosecutors did not address possible collusion between Trump’s presidential campaign and Russian actors, but they did show that Mueller’s investigators are looking closely at potential financial crimes. The Mueller probe reportedly has ensnared top Trump associates like Roger Stone over what he knew about WikiLeaks’ release of emails stolen from the Hillary Clinton campaign chairman’s account. Mueller is reportedly also looking at the President’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., for his role in a secret meeting during the 2016 campaign with a Russian lawyer, billed to the campaign as an opportunity to gain damaging information on Clinton. Cohen has reportedly said he is willing to tell Mueller that Trump was aware of the June 2016 meeting in Trump Tower before it happened.

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Manafort, outside a federal courthouse in Washington in June, was found guilty of eight counts of bank and tax fraud on Aug. 21

Erin Schaff—The New York Times/Redux
Trump’s most immediate peril may not be on the legal front. Justice Department guidelines restrict prosecutors from bringing charges against a sitting President–he can be indicted only after he leaves office. But the political toll of the mushrooming scandals is another matter. In the short term, he is unlikely to see his support drop. “This won’t be a blip in polls,” a top Democratic Senate aide predicted. “Literally, nothing changes this guy’s polling.” Most Americans have fixed their opinions about him by now. “This stopped being a game of persuasion in about October of 2016,” a top Republican on Capitol Hill said.

But the courtroom drama cemented corruption as a theme that Democrats will use to hammer Republicans in the 11 weeks until the midterm elections. Democrats are wary for now of the argument that Cohen’s claims should initiate impeachment proceedings, fearing the prospect would energize Trump’s supporters more than their own. Some of the most successful messaging tests Democrats have seen, according to two top strategists who have conducted focus groups in representative districts, is to cast incumbent Republicans as “yes men” to the President. That’s why strategists close to House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi recently sent a memo to Democratic candidates with a proposed message: run as a check on Trump’s agenda. In their research, pollsters found that Democratic candidates saw a 12-point bump using that message; among independent and nonaligned voters, the rhetoric was worth 14 percentage points.

If Trump’s spreading scandals engulf Republicans in November, Democrats could find themselves chairing committees next January with broad powers to investigate the President and his associates. A Democratic House or Senate could challenge the White House on everything from the President’s coveted border wall to his tax returns. Washington would tilt on its axis as Democrats with subpoena power move against their beleaguered opponent in the White House.

Which is why Cohen’s courtroom turn could be the start of a consequential, even historic, period in American politics. More details of his allegations against Trump will surely emerge. A second Manafort trial on charges he acted as an unregistered foreign agent will get under way in September. And eventually Mueller will likely issue a report detailing everything he has found about Russia’s 2016 meddling and whether the Trump campaign was involved. At which point Democrats who might control one or both chambers on Capitol Hill could be expected to look beyond their own investigations to impeachment.

With reporting by Alana Abramson, Haley Sweetland Edwards and Kate Reilly/New York; Molly Ball, Ryan Teague Beckwith, Philip Elliott and Abby Vesoulis/Washington

This appears in the September 03, 2018 issue of TIME.
 

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Why Former Republican Governor Christine Todd Whitman Thinks Trump Should Resign
 

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Trump cancels G-20 meeting with Putin


President Trump announced on Twitter Thursday that he has canceled a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin that was scheduled to take place at the G-20 summit on Saturday, in response to Russia on Sunday opening fire on Ukrainian ships and seizing their crews. The president had suggested on Tuesday that he might calloff the meeting because of this incident, saying "maybe I won't even have the meeting" because "I don't like that aggression. I don't like that aggression at all." But Russia on Thursday said the meeting was confirmed with the White House for Saturday. Trump's cancellation came an hour after he told reporters that it would "probably" take place because "I think it's a very good time to have the meeting."


Source: Donald J. Trump
 

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Trump cancels G-20 meeting with Putin


President Trump announced on Twitter Thursday that he has canceled a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin that was scheduled to take place at the G-20 summit on Saturday, in response to Russia on Sunday opening fire on Ukrainian ships and seizing their crews. The president had suggested on Tuesday that he might calloff the meeting because of this incident, saying "maybe I won't even have the meeting" because "I don't like that aggression. I don't like that aggression at all." But Russia on Thursday said the meeting was confirmed with the White House for Saturday. Trump's cancellation came an hour after he told reporters that it would "probably" take place because "I think it's a very good time to have the meeting."


Source: Donald J. Trump
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Jeffrey Toobin: 'Trump might not finish his term in office'


CNN Senior Legal Analyst Jeffrey Toobin: "Today is the first day I actually thought Donald Trump might not finish his term in office. I think this thing is enormous." http://cnn.it/2U1ILzN
 

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German police just raided the bank that’s been bankrolling Trump for decades
NATALIE DICKINSON

PUBLISHED ON NOVEMBER 29, 2018

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Donald Trump is having a terrible day.

First, it was revealed that his former attorney Michael Cohen has struck a new plea deal with Special Counsel Robert Mueller, admitting in the process that he lied about Trump and his family’s involvement in a Russian business deal during the election.

Then, the FBI and IRS raided the office of an attorney who handled Trump’s tax returns for 12 years.


Now, more bad news for Trump and his criminal cohort has landed. Common Dreams reports that Deutsche Bank’s headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany has been raided by authorities. CNN reports that some 170 police officers and tax investigators were involved in the operation, which should give some sense of the massive scale of the investigation.

McConnell is refusing to allow a vote on the BIPARTISAN bill to protect the Mueller investigation from Trump. Add your name to demand he bring the bill to the floor immediately. #ProtectMueller
The bank is well known for its close connections with Trump. Deutsche continued to lend him money even after his reputation for bankruptcy and general incompetence prompted most other banks to cease doing business with him. Business Insider reports that Trump has worked with Deutsche Bank for over two decades. Previous financial disclosures showed that Trump had an outstanding debt of $360 million with the bank prior to his election win.


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Today’s raid was related to an investigation into the now-infamous, expansive Panama Papers money-laundering scandal that broke in 2015. Numerous individuals, including two employees of the bank, allegedly failed to report over $350 million in laundered money that the bank sheltered in the British Virgin Islands. Over 900 clients of the bank hid money in the islands in 2016 alone.

Last year, Deutsche Bank was fined $600 million after it was discovered that the institution had helped launder roughly $10 billion in Russian dark money. The fact that Trump has been deeply entangled with the bank for over twenty years plus the fact that it is clearly a nexus of criminal behavior for Russian oligarchs and officials is just another massive piece of circumstantial evidence indicating that there was indeed collusion between the Trump campaign and Putin’s Russian Federation. Things are accelerating, and the full truth should emerge soon.
 

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Trump and Guiliani Won’t Sleep Well Tonight
Sheila MarkinOctober 11, 2019
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We are getting multiple sources of evidence that will eventually bring down this president and this administration. Republicans! Get on the right side of history before it is too late.
The US Attorney’s Office of the Southern District of New York held a press conference on Thursday, not something they usually do without good cause, to announce an indictment of four men who were involved in a scheme to use a phony business (strawman) to funnel foreign money into American political campaigns in violation of campaign finance laws and FEC rules. Lev Parnas, and Igor Fruman are two of the four named co-defendants in the indictment out of SDNY. These two men are Ukrainians with a close connection to Rudy Guiliani. Lev and Igor had gotten invitations to appear before the House Intelligence Committee- one of them was supposed to show up on the very day he got arrested. Instead, they had lunch with Rudy Guiliani at a Trump Hotel and then sped off for Dulles Airport with one-way tickets out of the country in their hot little hands. They were nabbed at Dulles before boarding the plane.

The indictment is mainly focused on their use of a false business entity to funnel money in violation of campaign finance laws. Money flowed into a Trump super PAC and into the pockets of a certain Congressman, Pete Sessions, to elicit his help to get the highly respected, veteran Ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, removed from her post by the State Department.

Reporters following this breaking story have learned that these two men were working hand in glove with Rudy Guiliani’s shadow foreign policy campaign in Ukraine. They are similar to the “plumbers” of Watergate. The plumbers of Watergate fame were “a secret unit tasked with digging up dirt on Pentagon Papers leaker Daniel Ellsberg. The Plumbers went on to commit crimes for the Committee for the Re-Election of the President, including the Watergate burglaries.”

Similarly, these two Ukrainian men were part of a team of people tasked with advancing Trump’s corrupt political personal interests in Ukraine. These are the same corrupt interests coming to light in the impeachment inquiry. What is emerging here looks to be a criminal enterprise to get help Trump get re-elected that was operating on numerous fronts. One goal of these Ukrainians was to find a way to slime and dirty up Joe Biden and his son. Another was to get Marie Yovanovitch, the squeaky clean Ambassador to Ukraine, removed from her post because she was interfering with the Trump/Guiliani protection campaign.

The most important aspect of the SDNY indictment is that this is an “open”, “still developing” investigation into a conspiracy. In other words, there’s more coming, folks. Stay tuned.

Why are these guys likely to be helpful in getting us the truth? Because they are facing jail time, and there is nothing like pending jail time to get people to suddenly want to get on the right side of history. In other words, we can expect that they might want to make a deal.

The U S Attorney’s Office of the Southern District of New York (SDNY) has a corruption unit that prides itself on being a force for truth and justice that really takes their mission seriously. The unit takes down corrupt actors and vigorously pursues the truth wherever it may lead. Superman comes to mind. This unit has been effective even in the age of Trump. This was the unit that prosecuted Michael Cohen and indicted Jeffrey Epstein. It is led by Geoffrey Berman, who is the U S Attorney in the Southern District of NY, and who is also a Trump appointee. Many people have been worried that Berman might not pursue justice in the age of Trump if the players getting arrested were close to Trump or his allies. It seems like Berman is not cowed by Bill Barr or Donald Trump. At least not so far.

What we can tell from this SDNY indictment is that Parnas and Fruman were funneling Russian money to an American Representative in Congress, Republican Pete Sessions, (and another as yet unnamed lawmaker), to get him to lobby for the removal of the Ukrainian Ambassador, Maria Yovanovitch. Note that the removal of that same Ambassador was mentioned by Trump himself in his phone call with Zelensky. He spoke about how she was going to be “going through some things”. Unspecified things. Very mob boss kind of talk from our Mafia Godfather president. In Trump’s call with Zelensky, Trump seemed to be urging Zelensky to say it was Ukraine that wanted her to be removed. This indicates a nexus between Guiliani and Trump and the effort to oust Yovanovitch.

Yovanovitch testified before the House Intell committee today. This matters a lot. She is still on the payroll of the State Department and the White House has taken the stance that NO ONE should testify before the House. She defied the White House and showed up. What she told the House Intell Committee was consistent with what we are learning from reporters. She told us that she ran afoul of Rudy Guiliani and Trump in Ukraine when she spoke out against a corruption in Ukraine. She is a veteran diplomat with an impeccable record. Guiliani wanted her out. She was getting in the way of his corrupt campaign to help Trump because she would not play along. Guiliani and others launched a smear campaign against her. And then she was abruptly removed from her post by the State Department without cause.

It is becoming clearer that many of Trump’s inner circle are hiding things from us that they know about and that many have been going along with what is looking more and more like a Trump enterprise to get him re-elected by engaging in dirty tricks and criminal acts. Very Nixonian.

Trump has succeeded in getting people in cabinet posts who will look the other way or, worse, help him in these paranoid enterprises. Pompeo at the State Department is one of them. He was one of the dozen or so people listening in on the call between Trump and Zelensky. At first, Pompeo feigned ignorance about that call when he spoke with reporters. Then reporters learned he was actually ON THE CALL listening in! Caught red handed in his dissembling, Pompeo then confirmed that yes, he was on the call. The House has said (appropriately) that Pompeo should therefore recuse himself from making any decisions about who should testify from the State Department in the impeachment inquiry. Pompeo himself could be charged with a crime. He is only one of the many cabinet members who may be caught up in this growing impeachment morass.

Barr is compromised as well. We know that he tried to deep-six the whistleblower complaint in numerous ways and numerous times. Barr should recuse himself. He won’t but he should.

Rick Perry is another. He has been subpoenaed by the House to turn over documents. He was the guy who went to Ukraine in place of VP Pence when Trump was trying to impress upon Zelensky that he would NOT get his money for military protection UNLESS he played ball with Trump’s goal of sliming Biden. Perry had reportedly been very active in Ukraine trying to get sweet lucrative deals for himself and donors with Ukrainian gas companies. Rick Perry is resigning from office. Trump has been trying to lay blame on Perry as use him as a fall guy.

If you think this whole thing smells bad, you are right. The connections between these two Ukrainian mopes, Guiliani, and Trump and many others in this administration who went along with Trump are shockingly reminiscent of Watergate. There are more and more people getting mired in the quicksand. These two Ukrainian “plumbers” are in the muck up to their necks and they might be very happy to rat out Guiliani and others because they are facing jail time. These guys and others are eventually going to tell us a lot about what Trump and Guiliani have been up to.

The good news is that we now have two sources of truthful information: the House Intell Committee and the SDNY criminal case. As the investigation picks up steam in the House, many more people with knowledge are going to come out of the woodwork and tell us the truth out of self-interest. The courts are helping. There was a 2 to 1 ruling by the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit upholding Congress’s broad investigative powers and soundly rejecting the argument that Trump’s lawyers are making. Mazars, Trump’s accounting firm, must turn over 8 years of financial documents including Trump’s taxes. That ruling supports the broad power of the House to subpoena and obtain documents to satisfy their oversight role.

The tide is turning. First there is a trickle, then the flow of information that gets bigger as people calculate what is best for themselves and their legacies.

Congress will be back in session next week. We are going to hear from witnesses who will tell us more about this Trump/Guiliani enterprise to get Trump re-elected by using a shadow campaign in Ukraine outside the State Department to get dirt on opponents.

Fiona Hill will be testifying. She is no longer at the State Dept but she is known to be a straight shooter and she was there for many months before leaving government service, so she knows some things. Ambassador Gordon Sondland says he will be testifying in response to a subpoena from the House despite the White House’s attempt to prevent him from appearing. The House will be very interested in the conversation he had with the president after Sondland realized that his text message communications he was engaged in were incriminating. Most likely, Trump gave him the talking point to be sure to put in his text reply “there was no quid pro quo.” Nice try. There was. Others from the State Department seem to be willing to testify about what they have been seeing and hearing.

It is time for the Republicans to get on the right side of history. This is the moment, as George Conway, Kelly Ann Conway’s husband has been saying this for some time. Conway was joined by over a dozen conservative Republicans calling for Trump be impeached “expeditiously”. There are also rumors that Mitt Romney is building a coalition of the willing to defy Trump and possibly vote to convict him in the Senate.

This is getting very very interesting.
 
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