The South Carolina Primary - Official Thread

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="5"><center>Obama, Clinton Head for Democratic
Showdown in South Carolina Jan 26</font size></center>


Black Press USA
by Hazel Trice Edney
NNPA Editor-in-Chief

WASHINGTON (NNPA) – The score is now one to one.

Sen. Hillary Clinton with her 39 percent to 37 percent win in New Hampshire Tuesday night and Sen. Barack Obama with his 39 percent to her 29 percent win in Iowa Jan. 3 are now headed for a rematch in South Carolina Jan. 26 where the more than 40 percent Black Democratic voters will decide what happens next.

Obama says voter turnout will be the key.

“What will help me to get elected is making sure the people turn out to vote and that they recognize the opportunity that we have to - for the first time in a long time - really change our politics…And that’s true, not just for Black folks, but for all people who’ve been locked out of the process,” Obama said in a telephone interview with the NNPA News Service Tuesday.

“But, there’s no doubt that my candidacy builds on the sacrifices and work of those who came earlier, people who were willing to go to jail and march and sit in and heroes like Dr. King who were willing to sacrifice their lives so that a future generation could have the opportunities that I have.”

Obama could make history only if he wins enough delegates in the Democratic primaries to go on and face a Republican in the fall.

Arizona Sen. John McCain led the New Hampshire Primary ahead of former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won in Iowa. African-American voters sparingly support Republican candidates, usually about 10 percent.

It takes 2,162 delegates to win the Democratic nomination.

Pundits predict that between South Carolina and Super Tuesday Feb. 5, when 22 states will go to the polls, the obvious Democratic nominee will emerge.

Several factors indicate that anything could happen. That includes Clinton’s surprise win in New Hampshire – defying polls that had predicted Obama with a double digit lead.

Also, the fact that members of the Congressional Black Caucus who have chosen to endorse have now tipped 15-16 in favor of Clinton. The score was tied until New Jersey Rep. Donald Payne endorsed Clinton last week.

Also, the fact that Clinton could also make history by becoming the first woman president also adds to the intrigue of the contest, particularly since Black women, who comprise at least 30 percent of the Black vote, are expected to decide the contest in South Carolina.

The day after Clinton's Iowa loss to both Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who got 30 percent of the vote, she told NNPA that she was not intimidated by Obama’s momentum, even in South Carolina, where polls indicate he will be favored among Black voters.

“I do not see myself as being disadvantaged. I have a very long record of working with and producing results for African-Americans, for poor people, for hard-working people, for kids. And I’ll put that record up against anyone. And if you want to know what kind of changes any of us will make, look at what we’ve already done. That’s the best predictor of what we will do in the future,” says Clinton in the interview.

“I’m running to be the president of all America, and especially to those who have been invisible in many of the decisions that have been made over the last seven years. So, I will be talking about the issues that matter to all families, but particularly to African-American families.”

At the time of the interview, Clinton was climbing uphill to New Hampshire as another landslide for Obama was expected. But by 11 o’clock Tuesday night she stood before an audience that was chanting, “Comeback kid!”

She answered, “Together, let’s give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me…This campaign is about people, about making sure that everyone in this country has the opportunity to live up to his or her God-given potential. That has been the work of my life.”

To wild applause, she continued, “Too many have been invisible for too long. Well, you’re not invisible to me.”

In Iowa, Obama had also answered his cheering crowd with a resounding message of hope reminiscent of those in the 1960s:

“Hope is what led a band of colonists to rise up against an empire; what led the greatest of generations to free a continent and heal a nation; what led young women and young men to sit at lunch counters and brave fire hoses and march through Selma and Montgomery for freedom's cause. Hope. Hope is what led me here today - with a father from Kenya; a mother from Kansas - and a story that could only happen in the United States of America.”

In his concession speech Tuesday night, he led the audience in a chant, “Yes we can!”

As Obama prepares to take that message into South Carolina, polls show him with a double-digit lead over his opponents. Then they will vy in the 22 states where large Black turnouts are expected to go to the polls on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5. Clinton said in the interview that she will fight back with issues.

“I have a long history of fighting to expand civil rights and improving our public schools and giving every child a chance to go to college. I’m going to crack down on predatory lenders and put homeownership back in reach for middle income and low income Americans.

I’m finally going to be able to deliver on health care because I think the plan I have is not only totally universal to cover everybody, but it’s politically doable. And we’ll be doing more to address the high rates in which African-Americans suffer from chronic diseases like diabetes. I will continue the work I’ve done to expand access to capital and technical assistance for minority entrepreneurs and small business owners. And I have paid particular attention to the economic vitality of both, our inner cities, and our rural areas.”

Obama said in the interview that he too will stress his issues platform. He says education, more money and health care are the three most essential issues for Black America.

“Number one has to be education. And that means education from the day a child is born until the day they graduate from college. So, we have proposed an additional $18 billion a year in education spending,” he said.

He stressed the need for early childhood education, raising teachers’ salaries, offering more professional development for teachers, changing parts of Bush's “No Child Left Behind” so that schools that are already behind get resources that they need and granting a $4,000 a year tuition credit for every college student.

Secondly, “We need to put more money into the pockets of our community,” he said. He said tax breaks for middle and low income people, including mortgage deductions would be a part of his economic plan.

Finally, a universal health care system would be his third priority, he says, “Making sure that everybody has a health care plan that is at least as good as the health care plan that I have as a member of Congress.”

South Carolina has the nation’s largest contingency of Black Democrats.

Clinton concludes that regardless of who ultimately wins the Democratic nomination, the diversity of the Democratic candidates themselves says more about the Party than it does about any of the candidates.

“I am proud to be running for president in a field of candidates who truly represent America,” she says. “We’ve come a long way to have a woman, a Latino (New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson) and an African-American, all with a chance to become the Democratic nominee. That to me is a tribute to the Democratic Party and to our country.”

http://www.blackpressusa.com/News/Article.asp?SID=3&Title=Hot+Stories&NewsID=15013
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="5"><center>
Obama leads in S.C. in racially divided poll</font size></center>



970-x20080117_1_col_SC_POLL.large.prod_affiliate.91.jpg



By Steven Thomma | McClatchy Newspapers
Posted on Thursday, January 17, 2008

COLUMBIA, S.C. — Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton a little more than a week before the South Carolina Democratic primary, as the state's large African-American population moves solidly behind him, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll.

The poll underscored a racial divide in the state over the showdown between an African-American man and a white woman. South Carolina is the first state with a large African-American population to vote in this year's Democratic campaign.

The poll showed Obama, an Illinois senator, leading among African-Americans by a better than 2-1 ratio. Clinton, a New York senator, led among whites by 2-1. Overall, that translates to nearly a 10-point lead for Obama.

"Voters are breaking along racial lines," said Brad Coker, the managing partner of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. "Racial voting patterns are going to play a major role."

A white man, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, was a distant third in the survey and didn't appear to be factor yet in his native-born state.

The poll showed more than half the likely vote coming from African-Americans — 54-43 percent — and a bigger female turnout than male, 59-41 percent.

The poll's findings that 15 percent remain undecided — enough to swing the eventual vote — are noteworthy. Also, 1 in 5 who did support candidates said they still might change their minds. Edwards' supporters were more likely to change their minds.

The results came after days of verbal warfare between Clinton and Obama supporters over her comments that it took President Lyndon Johnson to accomplish, with civil rights legislation, the dreams of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. Obama supporters accused Clinton of besmirching King. The two blamed aides and overzealous supporters for the fracas during a debate earlier this week.

In South Carolina, the poll showed this landscape among likely voters heading into the primary Jan. 26:

Obama, 40 percent.

Clinton, 31 percent.

Edwards, 13 percent.

Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, 1 percent.

Undecided, 15 percent.

Two key events could influence voters before the primary: Democratic caucuses Saturday in Nevada, and a debate Monday in Myrtle Beach, S.C. Also, all the candidates will flood into the state after Nevada and spend much of next week courting South Carolina voters.

As they do, they'll find a state in which Obama has a lead among men, young voters and Democrats.

He also has an edge over Clinton among women, 39-34 percent. He led among women in Iowa, where he won the overall vote, but trailed among women in New Hampshire, where he lost.

His biggest advantage is among those voters who are looking for change, where he leads Clinton by 65-7.

Clinton has an edge among those older than 50. Among those looking for experience she had an overwhelming 81-7 advantage over Obama.

Edwards, who needs to win the state, had few signs of strength.

He appeared squeezed by the white vote — he had more white support than Obama but less than Clinton — and frozen out of the black vote — he had only 2 percent of the African-American support.

Clinton and Obama essentially divided the vote on those most interested in Iraq, the economy and health care, while Edwards lagged among all three groups.

His strongest asset was honesty. Among those voters who are looking for honesty as the top trait in a candidate, a plurality supported Obama, but the rest preferred Edwards over Clinton by 2-1.

HOW WE POLL

The McClatchy-MSNBC Poll is a snapshot of voter opinion at the time it was conducted. It isn't a prediction of how people will vote on Election Day.

The Mason-Dixon poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina was conducted by telephone Monday through Wednesday. Those interviewed were selected by a random variation of telephone numbers from a cross-section of telephone exchanges. That means that anyone in the state with a phone line had the same odds of being called as anyone else, except for people who use only cell phones. Cell phone numbers aren't in the exchanges.

The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points. That means that 95 percent of the time, the correct numbers could be as many as 5 percentage points above the poll's findings, or as many as 5 percentage points below them. The remaining 5 percent of the time, the correct numbers could vary even more.

The sampling margin of error doesn't include other variables that could affect results, including the way questions are worded or the order in which they're asked.

McClatchy Newspapers 2008

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/104/story/24946.html
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<b>VIEW THE POLL DATA</b><p/>PDF | <a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/static/pdf/poll/0117scdem.pdf">South Carolina Democrats</a><p/>PDF | <a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/static/pdf/poll/0117scgop.pdf">South Carolina Republicans</a><p/><b>
 

nittie

Star
Registered
Polls don't mean much. I would not be surprised if Hillary wins SC, I think the combination of Black Ministers, Bill and the Dem party machine could steal it for her like they did in Nev and NH.
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="4"><center>Obama walks a black-white tightrope</font size></center>

By William Douglas and Steven Thomma
McClatchy Newspapers
Posted on Sunday, January 20, 2008

COLUMBIA, SC — Barack Obama brought his presidential campaign to the racially diverse South Sunday, walking what one analyst called a racial "tightrope" in his quest to become the first African-American to win a major party's presidential nomination and the White House.

Obama traveled to Atlanta to honor the late Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr., then to South Carolina, looking for strong support from African-Americans to put him back in the win column after losing to New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in Nevada on Saturday.

But as he looked to buttress his support among African-Americans — especially with Bill Clinton vowing to go door-to-door in South Carolina to woo African-American voters for his wife, Obama also must worry about losing white votes to Sen. Clinton.

"He has this calculus he's got to deal with, not to alienate the white vote while pursuing the black vote," said Ron Walters, a top adviser to Jesse Jackson's 1984 presidential campaign and now a political scientist at the University of Maryland. "By now, you would think they'd have this transition seamless, but it seems that they haven't got it quite down."

Obama signaled Sunday that he plans to take on Bill Clinton more directly in South Carolina.

"The former president, who I think all of us have a lot of regard for, has taken his advocacy on behalf of his wife to a level that I think is pretty troubling," the Illinois senator said in a taped interview with ABC to be aired Monday. "He continues to make statements that are not supported by the facts."

Obama political strategist David Axelrod told reporters in South Carolina that "everyone understands him wanting to help his wife" but that Bill Clinton's planned campaigning in South Carolina is really "a strategy for him to carry the negative message for her."

The Clinton campaign dismissed the criticism, saying: "President Clinton is a huge asset to our campaign and will continue talking to the American people to press the case for Senator Clinton."

Obama is part of a generation of African-American politicians who came of age after the civil rights battles of the 1960s and have found broader appeal with less confrontational rhetoric. He reverted to that more familiar and apparently more comfortable style earlier Sunday at King's Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta.

"Our politics fuels and exploits . . . division across all races and regions; across gender and party," Obama said. "It is played out on television. It is sensationalized by the media. And last week, it even crept into the campaign for president, with charges and counter-charges that served to obscure the issues instead of illuminating the critical choices we face as a nation."

"We can no longer afford to build ourselves up by tearing someone else down. We can no longer afford to traffic in lies or fear or hate."

Obama proved that he has crossover appeal by narrowly winning the white vote in Iowa and therefore the overwhelmingly white state. Since then, however, he narrowly lost the white vote in New Hampshire to Hillary Clinton, and he lost it to her in Nevada by 17 percentage points.

In South Carolina, where Democrats will vote this Saturday, Obama enjoys a lead in the polls of better than 2-1 among African-Americans, who could make up half the vote.

That would be enough to win the state. But Obama was third among white voters behind Clinton and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, according to a McClatchy-MSNBC poll last week, and a continued loss of white votes could spell trouble in other states.

Holding the black vote while winning the white vote puts Obama on a "tightrope," said Clemson University political scientist Bruce W. Ransom.

For Obama, the key is to continue avoiding being labeled the "black candidate," someone like Jesse Jackson who appealed to African-Americans and liberal whites but scared away moderate white suburbanites and couldn't win the nomination, let alone the presidency.

"If you get him to react in a way that looks like traditional (black) politicians, it might make him look less appealing," said Michael Dawson, a professor at the University of Chicago's Center for the Study of Race, Politics and Culture.

Moreover, Obama now must navigate a racial political landscape that the Clintons know well.

Bill Clinton courted and won African-American support to secure the Democratic presidential nomination in 1992. After he had the nomination, he criticized Sister Souljah, a black singer, before Jackson's Rainbow Coalition, a move that was widely interpreted as a signal to white voters that he'd stand up to Jackson and wouldn't be captive to the party's African-American wing.

McClatchy Newspapers 2008

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/25113.html
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="5"><center>
Obama dips, but still has South Carolina lead: poll</font size></center>



scdem_day2.gif


Reuters
Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:13am EST
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

FLORENCE, South Carolina (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's big lead over rival Hillary Clinton slipped slightly but is still substantial two days before South Carolina's presidential primary, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

Obama's lead dipped three points overnight to give him a 39 percent to 24 percent edge over Clinton in the rolling tracking poll. John Edwards climbed four points to reach 19 percent -- within striking distance of Clinton and second place.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

The shifts have occurred since Monday night's angry debate in Myrtle Beach, where Obama and Clinton traded harsh accusations about their records and Edwards chastised the pair for squabbling.

Since then, Obama and Clinton have cranked up their bitter fight for the Democratic nomination in November's election to succeed President George W. Bush. Both candidates prepared harsh radio ads in South Carolina on Wednesday attacking each other.

"Since the debate, Obama and Clinton have dropped and Edwards has been rising," said pollster John Zogby. "There is definitely some movement here."

Obama's dip came largely among black voters, who are expected to make up more than half of the Democratic primary electorate in South Carolina on Saturday.

Support for Obama, an Illinois senator who would be the first black U.S. president, fell from 65 percent to 56 percent among African-Americans, with Clinton climbing two points among blacks to 18 percent.

Edwards held a slight lead over Clinton among likely white voters at 35 percent to 32 percent. Obama had 19 percent.

EDWARDS CLIMBS

In the last of the three days of polling on Wednesday, Edwards led Clinton for second place and has been climbing steadily each day.

"If the trajectories continue, it's within the realm of possibility that Clinton could come in third," Zogby said.

Clinton, a New York senator who would be the first woman U.S. president, came in third behind the winner Obama and Edwards in Iowa, but bounced back with wins in New Hampshire and Nevada heading into the showdown in South Carolina.

Obama has spent the past two days on a bus tour of South Carolina, while Clinton has been out of the state campaigning in California, Arizona, Pennsylvania and New Jersey ahead of the February 5 "Super Tuesday" round of contests in 22 states.

About 13 percent of voters in Saturday's primary say they are still not sure who to support. "That's a lot for three candidates who are this well known," Zogby said.

Obama led among most sub-groups, including men, women, liberals, conservatives, young, low-income, and union household voters. Clinton edged Obama out among the oldest voters, above age 70. Edwards led Obama among Republicans.

The rolling poll of 811 likely Democratic voters in South Carolina was taken Monday through Wednesday. In a rolling poll, the most recent day's results are added while the oldest day's results are dropped in order to track changing momentum.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2418608720080124?sp=true
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="5"><center>EBONY/JET POLL
Shows Obama Well Ahead in South Carolina</font size><font size="4">
Black voters call Obama most 'honest and trustworthy,
' but say Clinton has 'best experience'</font size></center>

Thursday, January 24, 2008
Kevin Chappelle


In one of the last polls before the state’s Democratic primary Jan. 26, EBONY and JET Magazines found that potential voters in South Carolina have a strong, 10-point preference for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to be the next president, and the gap widens to more than 30 points among Black voters.

The Ebony/Jet poll of 600 Black and White respondents spotlights the interests and preferences of Black voters, who are expected to account for as much as 55 percent of the Democratic vote on primary day in South Carolina. It was conducted in conjunction with veteran DC-based pollster Ron Lester & Associates, and was taken over the four-day period of Jan. 19-22. The Ebony/Jet poll has a margin of error of +- 2.9 percent.

A key finding among all poll respondents was that 37 percent pick Obama over Clinton, who had 27 percent, and John Edwards, with 15 percent, in South Carolina. When Blacks were asked, 53 percent said they would vote for Obama, 21 percent for Clinton and 3 percent for Edwards. At least 22 percent of voters overall and 24 percent of Black voters said they didn’t know who they would vote for or had not yet made up their mind.

However, Whites support Clinton more than 2-to-1 over Obama, and White women widen that gap to 38 percent for Clinton, 15 percent for Obama and 28 percent for Edwards.

Overall, Obama’s support may run deeper than Clinton’s. Of those who support Obama, 29 percent say they do so enthusiastically, while only 20 percent say the same for Clinton.

Younger voters, the heart of Obama’s campaign, are still a source of his support in South Carolina. For instance, among Black men under 45, 75 percent of the respondents supported Obama, with only 15 percent supporting Clinton and 3 percent backing Edwards. Those results fall in line with months of interviews by EBONY and JET Magazines in which many Black men see themselves in Obama and feel a connection with him.

Black women, who make up the bulk of the Black vote in South Carolina, support Obama more than 2-to-1 over Clinton. However, among single Black mothers, the gap is much narrower, with Obama getting top rating with 35 percent of the respondents to Clinton’s 32 percent.

Obama had strong support among Black churchgoers, with 52 percent of regular churchgoers (those who attend 2 or more times a week) supporting Obama, and 61 percent of Blacks who attend church occasionally (once a week or less) supporting his candidacy.

While a greater percentage (49 percent) said Clinton had the best experience, more respondents (39 percent) said Obama had a better vision for the country than the other Democratic candidates. Nearly twice the respondents thought that Obama was also more honest and trustworthy.

A greater number of potential voters questioned (39 percent) said that they think that setting the right tone and vision is important, but it is more important to have the experience to manage (51 percent) and run the bureaucracy in Washington, D.C.

When asked which key issues concern them the most, 37 percent of the voters polled ranked the economy at the top, while 23 percent said the situation in Iraq was important, and 18 percent cited health care as the most important.

When asked about their opinions of the major players and surrogates in the Democratic race, former President Bill Clinton had a higher favorable rating than candidate Edwards and talk show host Oprah Winfrey, but lower than Hillary Clinton and Obama. Hillary Clinton was seen as favorable to 78 percent of respondents, compared to Obama’s 76 percent and Bill Clinton’s 75 percent. Edwards, who was born in South Carolina, had a 70 percent favorable rating. At least 67 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Winfrey, a public supporter of Obama’s.

http://www.ebonyjet.com/politics/national/index.aspx?id=4739
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="2">Ebony/Jet Poll - KEY POINTS<br /><br /></font></strong><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Overall, <b>Obama leads</b> Clinton and Edwards in SC by at least 10 points...</span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Obama * 37 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Clinton * 27 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Edwards *15 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Don’t Know/Not Sure *22 percent</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">...and leads among <b>Black voters</b> by more than 20 points</span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Obama *53 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Clinton *21 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Edwards *3 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Don’t Know/Not Sure *24 percent</span></li>
</ul>
<p></p>
</li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px"><b>Don’t Know</b>/Not Sure make up 22 percent of those polled, a bit higher than expected</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px"><strong>BLACK &amp; WHITE VOTERS</strong></span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Among <b>Black women</b>, who make up the bulk of the Black vote in SC, they support Obama more than 2-1<br /></span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Obama *48 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Clinton *23 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Edwards *4 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Don’t Know/Not Sure *25 percent</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">However, among <b>single Black mothers</b>, the gap is much more narrow<br /></span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Obama *35 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Clinton* 32 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Edwards *0</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Don’t Know/Not Sure *32 percent</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Obama’s strongest area of support is among <b>younger Black men</b> under 45...<br /></span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Obama *75 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Clinton *15 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Edwards *3 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Don’t Know/Not Sure *8 percent<br /></span></li>
</ul>
<p></p>
</li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">... And weaker among <b>older Black women</b>, 60+<br /></span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Obama *45 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Clinton *23 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Edwards *4 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Don’t Know/Not Sure *29 percent<br /></span></li>
</ul>
<p></p>
</li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Regular <b>Black churchgoers</b> (those who attend 2 or more times a week) support Obama as well,<br /></span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Obama *52 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Clinton *20 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Edwards *4 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Don’t Know/Not Sure *24 percent<br /></span></li>
</ul>
<p></p>
</li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">...With the strongest support coming from younger, <b>occasional Black church attendees</b> (once a week or less)<br /></span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Obama *61 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Clinton *16 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Edwards *0 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Don’t Know/Not Sure *23 percent<br /></span></li>
</ul>
<p></p>
</li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">When it comes to <b>White voters</b> overall, they tend to support Clinton...<br /></span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Obama * 17 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Clinton * 35 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Edwards *29 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Don’t Know/Not Sure *19 percent<br /></span></li>
</ul>
<p></p>
</li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">...with the support even more pronounced among*<b>White women<br /></b></span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Obama**** 15 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Clinton**** 38 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Edwards * 28 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Don’t Know/Not Sure *19 percent<br /></span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p></p>
<p><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px"><b>OVERALL<br /></b><br /></span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Overall, Obama’s support may <b>run deeper</b> than Clinton’s. 29 percent of those who support Obama say they do so enthusiastically, while only 20 percent say the same for Clinton<br /></span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">When asked about the surrogates, Bill Clinton had higher <b>favorable</b> ratings than candidate Edwards, but below Sen. Clinton and Obama<br /></span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Hillary Clinton *78 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Barack Obama *76 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Bill Clinton *75 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">John Edwards *70 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Oprah Winfrey *67 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Michelle Obama *57 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Elizabeth Edwards *56 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Jim Clyburn *50 percent</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">When asked about key issues, voters polled ranked these as the <b>most important issues</b>:<br /></span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Economy (37 percent)</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Iraq (23 percent)</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Health Care (18 percent)</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Immigration (6 percent)</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Education (4 percent)</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Crime &amp; Drugs (4 percent)<br /></span></li>
</ul>
<p></p>
</li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Overall, those polled think Obama is more <b>honest and trustworthy</b>...<br /></span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Obama *34 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Clinton *18 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Edwards *19 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Don’t Know/Not Sure *30 percent<br /></span></li>
</ul>
<p></p>
</li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">... And has the <b>best vision</b> for America...<br /></span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Obama *39 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Clinton *26 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Edwards *16 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Don’t Know/Not Sure *19 percent<br /></span></li>
</ul>
<p></p>
</li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">...But say that Clinton has the <b>best experience</b> to be president.<br /></span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Obama *20 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Clinton *49 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Edwards *10 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Don’t Know/Not Sure *21 percent</span></li>
</ul>
<p></p>
</li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">Voters also said that they think that setting the right <b>tone and vision</b> is important, but it is more important to have the <b>experience to manage</b> and run the Washington D.C. Bureaucracy<br /></span><ul>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">“Vision and tone” is important *39 percent</span></li>
<li><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">But “experience to manage and run” is needed, too *51 percent</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p></p>
<p><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12px"><span><strong>Methodology:<br /></strong><br />
Results for the statewide survey are based on telephone interviews conducted by professional callers under the direction of Lester &amp; Associates. For the sample, a voter file was provided by the South Carolina Democratic Party. The survey included 600 adults, 18 years of age or older, who said they "were likely" to vote in the January 29, 2008 democratic primary. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling is plus or minus 2.9% percentage points. *For results based on smaller subgroups the error attributable to sampling is higher.*Fifty-four percent of survey respondents were African-American, 43 percent were white and 3 percent were of "other" races.<strong>**</strong></span></span></p>


http://www.ebonyjet.com/campaign08/polls.aspx
 

QueEx

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<font size="5"><center>

Obama leads Clinton in S.C. as racial divide opens</font size></center>



846-20080124_1_col_SCPOLL.large.prod_affiliate.91.jpg



By Steven Thomma | McClatchy Newspapers
Posted on Thursday, January 24, 2008

WASHINGTON — Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton in South Carolina, where their increasingly bitter rivalry has opened a deep racial divide among Democrats days before the party's first primary in the South on Saturday, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll.

African-Americans in South Carolina break solidly for Obama, with 59 percent supporting the Illinois senator, 25 percent behind New York Sen. Clinton, 4 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and 12 percent undecided.

White voters see the primary from the opposite direction: 40 percent support Edwards, 36 percent back Clinton, 10 percent are behind Obama and 14 percent are undecided.

"It's still a racially divided state," said J. Brad Coker, the managing partner of Mason Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey.

With African-Americans expected to dominate the voting, their strong support gave Obama the overall edge.

The statewide landscape, as of Wednesday night:


Obama, 38 percent.


Clinton, 30 percent.


Edwards, 19 percent.


Undecided, 13 percent.

The poll's error margin was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

As if has everywhere so far this year, the contest in South Carolina remained somewhat volatile.

Edwards gained ground in this poll, up 6 points from the week before, primarily because of white men. He's looking for a repeat of his 2004 primary win in his birth state.

Clinton was waging a spirited challenge, returning to the state Thursday after a two-day absence while her husband campaigned there full time and her ads continued to air on television.

At the same time, a nasty debate Monday in Myrtle Beach eroded "likability" ratings for all three candidates, more than 1 in 10 likely voters remained undecided and 1 in 5 who did express support for certain candidates said they could still change their minds.

Obama owed his lead largely to African-Americans, particularly men, 66 percent of whom supported him; black women gave him 55 percent support.

Obama draws the least backing from white women, only 8 percent, and only 11 percent from white men.

He led among younger voters, drawing 47 percent of those 49 and younger, more than supported Clinton (22 percent) and Edwards (20 percent) combined.

On issues, Obama had a slight edge over Clinton among voters who said the economy or health care was their top concern. The economy dominates kitchen tables in South Carolina as it does elsewhere this winter, up sharply on the priority list from December. Health care trails in second place. No other issue comes close.

Obama also has forged a solid bond with his supporters; they were the least likely to switch to other candidates.

Clinton's strength is white women. She gets 43 percent of their support, compared with Edwards' 34 percent and Obama's 8 percent.

She also has an edge among voters older than 50.

Edwards was the only candidate whose support had increased from the week before. One possible reason was Monday's debate, in which Clinton and Obama clashed bitterly while Edwards tried to be the voice of reason. The next day he said he was the "grownup" in the debate.

But his ability to gain more could be limited by his small base of support. The one group where he leads is white men. He has 47 percent of them, Clinton 29 percent and Obama 11 percent. Most white male South Carolinians are Republicans, however, who weren't included in the survey.

"Edwards has no appeal at all among minority voters and they're half the vote. That limits his ability to move up. He's not going to take black votes away from Obama, and not that many white women from Hillary," Coker said.

"Edwards is picking up some support from whites. But he's still not likely to be a threat to win or even finish second. He may be helping Obama by pulling white voters away from Hillary."

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/election2008/story/25383.html
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<p><strong>VIEW THE POLL DATA</strong></p><p>PDF | <a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/static/pdf/poll/012408scdem.pdf">Poll results for S.C. Democrats</a>

</p><p>
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="4">
With 15% of the vote in:


Obama 53% - 42,861
Clinton 28% - 22,402
Edwards 19% 15,592

</font size>
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="4">
With 21% of the vote in:


Obama 53% - 57,741
Clinton 27% - 30,249
Edwards 20% 21,735

</font size>
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="4">
With 30% of the vote in:


Obama 54% - 98,058
Clinton 27% - 44,295
Edwards 19% 30,768

</font size>
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="4">
With 50% of the vote in:


Obama 54% - 133,592
Clinton 27% - 67,500
Edwards 19% 46,882

</font size>
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="4">
With 97% of the vote in:


Obama 55% - 284,437
Clinton 27% - 136,639
Edwards 18% 91,339

</font size>

Obama has polled more than twice (thats more than 2 times to some of yall ... LOL) than Bill and Hillary.

QueEx
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
<font size="4">Analysis: </font size>

<font size="5"><center>Obama's win sets up a long hard fight ahead</font size></center>

By Steven Thomma | McClatchy Newspapers
Posted on Saturday, January 26, 2008

WASHINGTON — Democrats head away from South Carolina Sunday torn between two top candidates — and deeply divided along racial lines that could pull at their party throughout a long and bruising campaign.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama won the state. But he did it by winning an overwhelming majority of black votes while losing the majority of white votes — and getting a smaller share of the white vote than he had in any other state so far this year.

Together, those racial results suggest challenges ahead for Obama, who yearns to bridge racial divisions, not exacerbate them, particularly as the campaign goes coast to coast with contests in 22 states on Feb. 5, "Super Tuesday."

But they also point to a possible problem for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who failed to win many black votes despite the aggressive courting by her husband, a man so empathetic he once was described by writer Toni Morrison as the "first black president."

Many Democrats complained that former President Bill Clinton was too harsh in his criticism of Obama, raising the possibility that some African-Americans could hold a grudge even if Hillary Clinton goes on to win the nomination.

"Racial politics were injected into this campaign in a way that was unnerving to me," said Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., the third-ranking Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives and a major figure in African-American politics in South Carolina.

Obama's win keeps him neck and neck with Clinton for the nomination, each now with two state wins. He won Iowa and South Carolina; she won New Hampshire and Nevada. Chances appear to be growing that their battle will continue until the Democratic National Convention in Denver in August.

"I do not believe Super Tuesday will decide the nominee for our party," said Clyburn. "I believe it will keep going through to the convention."

If South Carolina is a sign of what's to come, their competition will be tough, perhaps even nasty, and driven perhaps as much by the race and gender of the voters as by the candidates' agendas.

Clinton and Obama each hold a firm base in the party, as illustrated by the results so far from four contests in all four regions of the country — Iowa in the Midwest, New Hampshire in the Northeast, Nevada in the West and South Carolina in the South.

Her base is women, whites, older people, blue-collar workers, and firm Democrats.

His base is males, blacks, young people, upper middle class professionals and independents.

That gives Clinton an edge; women and whites are a much bigger slice of the party, and Democrats outnumber independents.

But Obama has shown an ability to break into her base, as he did in winning the women's vote in Iowa.

The key to Obama's success is reaching across racial lines, avoiding being seen as a "black candidate" with limited appeal and winning white votes.

His share of the white vote remained roughly the same through contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, when he took 33 percent, 36 percent, and 34 percent respectively.

In South Carolina he took 24 percent of the white vote.

Clinton's share of the white vote grew at each step — 27 percent in Iowa, 39 percent in New Hampshire, 52 percent in Nevada. But it dropped in South Carolina to 38 percent, tied with former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. If he drops out or is seen as no longer viable by most voters, it's unclear where his share of the vote would go.

Edwards now confronts the all-but-certain fact that he will not be the nominee. He has not won a state, not even his native South Carolina, the only state primary he won in 2004.

His hope now is to find enough cash to stay in the campaign and continue to win some delegates somewhere. That could give him a prized bargaining chip should Obama and Clinton remain locked in such a close contest that each falls short of the delegate majority needed to win the nomination. That might force them into a deal with Edwards to gain his delegates.

His dream: a deadlocked convention turns to him as an alternative. The more likely reality: He delivers his delegates and hopes to be named attorney general or to the Supreme Court.

McClatchy Newspapers 2008


http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/25532.html
 

kesq

Rising Star
Platinum Member
Re: For now at least I'm proud. Internals of Exit Polls SC

Wow.

Thanks.
 

QueEx

Rising Star
Super Moderator
Re: For now at least I'm proud. Internals of Exit Polls SC

Impressive.

Thanks VG

QueEx
 
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