Who Should (and Will) Win at the Golden Globes This Weekend?
By Nate Jones and Jen Chaney
Homecoming and A Star Is Born. Photo: Amazon Studios/Warner Bros.
You may be doing a dry January, but I assure you Hollywood isn’t. Sunday brings the Golden Globes, awards season’s tipsiest ceremony, a night so crazy that they hand out trophies for film and TV. While they’re a pivotal step in the Oscars race, the Globes are also good for a few completely unpredictable choices each year … which is of course what makes them so fun to try to predict. Below, you’ll find Nate Jones (movies) and Jen Chaney (TV) make their best guesses at who the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will pile their celestial honors upon this year.
Film
Best Motion Picture, Drama
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody both decided that running in the more prestigious Globes category was worth the risk, and both were rewarded with prime nominations. A Star Is Born seems an easy choice here, as it’s got everything the Globes usually go for — an actor reinventing himself as a director, a singer reinventing herself as an actress, heck, there’s even a musical element. The Globes leaving Sam Elliott off the Supporting Actor ballot could suggest that the HFPA is slightly cooler on ASIB than everyone assumes, but I think Bradley Cooper’s film has the star power to pull through.
Should win: A Star Is Born
Will win: A Star Is Born
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Gold Derby’s Golden Globe predictors, including myself, is that this will either go to James, who’s had a breakout year thanks to his performances in both Homecoming and If Beale Street Could Talk, or Matthew Rhys, who won the Emmy in this category for his superb portrayal of Philip Jennings on The Americans. (I’ll also say it’s possible that Billy Porter, who infused Pose with so much spirit and pathos, could pull off an upset.) While the Globes usually trend toward whatever’s new, sometimes they give a trophy to an actor who’s clearly long overdue, much like they did with Jon Hamm in 2015. I guess what I’m saying is that Matthew Rhys will be this year’s Jon Hamm.
Should win: Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Will win: Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Best Actress in a Television Series, Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Keri Russell, The Americans
Like her Americans co-star, does Keri Russell also deserve a long-overdue Globe? Yes. Will she get one? Mmmm, not sure. I don’t see Moss winning again or Balfe winning for a first time. Like the Best Drama category, I think this comes down to Killing Eve and Oh versus Homecoming and Roberts. Both women give terrific, award-worthy performances. But it’s harder for me to imagine the HFPA overlooking Roberts.
Should win: Keri Russell, The Americans
Will win: Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Best Actor in a Television Series, Musical or Comedy
Jim Carrey, Kidding
Sacha Baron Cohen, Who Is America?
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
If Michael Douglas were not in the mix, I’d say the trophy here would either go to Jim Carrey, a favorite of the HFPA, or Bill Hader, who already won the Emmy for Barry. But Douglas, a 12-time Globes nominee, five-time winner, and previous recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille Award is in the mix, and my best guess is that voters will lean his way.
Should win: Bill Hader, Barry
Will win: Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Best Actress in a Television Series, Musical or Comedy
Kristen Bell, The Good Place
Candice Bergen, Murphy Brown
Alison Brie, GLOW
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Debra Messing, Will & Grace
Rachel Brosnahan, last year’s winner, is fantastic in The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. But, unlike at the Emmys, there are rarely back-to-back wins in this category. (Fun fact: Julia Louis-Dreyfus has been nominated five times for Veep but has never won — not even once!) For that reason, I doubt Brosnahan will win. Instead, I’m looking at either Alison Brie, who goes from big to subtle and funny to dramatic in GLOW, or Kristen Bell, who strikes me as a strong contender, especially if the voters opt not to reward The Good Place for Best Comedy.
Should win: Honestly, it’s a three-way tie between Brosnahan, Bell, and Brie.
Will win: Kristen Bell, The Good Place
Best Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television
Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso
Daniel Brühl,The Alienist
Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Darren Criss’s performance as Andrew Cunanan in The Assassination of Gianni Versace was a breakout moment for the actor. It won him an Emmy, and there’s a good chance it could win him a Golden Globe, too. But he faces some tough competition, particularly from Hugh Grant, who does some of the best work of his career as the smug, duplicitous Jeremy Thorpe in A Very English Scandal. I’m betting that the HFPA will find Grant too hard to resist.
Should win: Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Will win: Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television
Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Connie Britton,Dirty John
Laura Dern, The Tale
Regina King, Seven Seconds
Wow, is this a competitive category. As strong as all the contenders are, though, I think it will come down to three nominees: the fantastic Regina King in Seven Seconds; Patricia Arquette, who physically transforms into Tilly Mitchell in Escape at Dannemora; and Amy Adams, whose damaged Camille dominates Sharp Objects. All three of these women have been nominated at the Globes before, but Adams has the most nods to her credit — counting her two this year for Sharp Objects and Vice, she has nine — as well as two wins. In other words, the HFPA likes her, and with a selection committee this small (there are roughly 90 members of the Foreign Press Association), a track record of being liked matters.
Should win: Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Will win: Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Best Supporting Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Édgar Ramírez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Henry Winkler, Barry
This is a tough call. Both Winkler and Arkin are industry veterans — a potential plus with the HFPA. A wave of support for The Assassination of Gianni Versace could push Ramírez into the winner’s column, and let’s not overlook Kieran Culkin, the best smarmy entitled richie on TV last year. But I keep getting stuck on Ben Whishaw, who is heartbreaking and maddening in equal measure in A Very English Scandal.I think that mini-series could wind up doing a mini-version of the Limited Series sweep Big Little Liespulled off last year.
Should win: Ben Whishaw or Henry Winkler
Will win: Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Best Supporting Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Penélope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale
While all the women in this category are deserving, the two front-runners seem to be Alex Borstein, nominated for Mrs. Maisel for the first time this year, and Patricia Clarkson, the passive-aggressive mommie worstest in Sharp Objects. I can imagine either of these ladies winning, so it’s ultimately going to come down to whether the HFPA love for Mrs. Maisel is stronger than its love for Sharp Objects. (I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility of an upset, perhaps by Cruz.) But my hypothesis is that Clarkson will prevail.
Should win: Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Will win: Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
By Nate Jones and Jen Chaney

Homecoming and A Star Is Born. Photo: Amazon Studios/Warner Bros.
You may be doing a dry January, but I assure you Hollywood isn’t. Sunday brings the Golden Globes, awards season’s tipsiest ceremony, a night so crazy that they hand out trophies for film and TV. While they’re a pivotal step in the Oscars race, the Globes are also good for a few completely unpredictable choices each year … which is of course what makes them so fun to try to predict. Below, you’ll find Nate Jones (movies) and Jen Chaney (TV) make their best guesses at who the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will pile their celestial honors upon this year.
Film
Best Motion Picture, Drama
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody both decided that running in the more prestigious Globes category was worth the risk, and both were rewarded with prime nominations. A Star Is Born seems an easy choice here, as it’s got everything the Globes usually go for — an actor reinventing himself as a director, a singer reinventing herself as an actress, heck, there’s even a musical element. The Globes leaving Sam Elliott off the Supporting Actor ballot could suggest that the HFPA is slightly cooler on ASIB than everyone assumes, but I think Bradley Cooper’s film has the star power to pull through.
Should win: A Star Is Born
Will win: A Star Is Born
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Gold Derby’s Golden Globe predictors, including myself, is that this will either go to James, who’s had a breakout year thanks to his performances in both Homecoming and If Beale Street Could Talk, or Matthew Rhys, who won the Emmy in this category for his superb portrayal of Philip Jennings on The Americans. (I’ll also say it’s possible that Billy Porter, who infused Pose with so much spirit and pathos, could pull off an upset.) While the Globes usually trend toward whatever’s new, sometimes they give a trophy to an actor who’s clearly long overdue, much like they did with Jon Hamm in 2015. I guess what I’m saying is that Matthew Rhys will be this year’s Jon Hamm.
Should win: Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Will win: Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Best Actress in a Television Series, Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Keri Russell, The Americans
Like her Americans co-star, does Keri Russell also deserve a long-overdue Globe? Yes. Will she get one? Mmmm, not sure. I don’t see Moss winning again or Balfe winning for a first time. Like the Best Drama category, I think this comes down to Killing Eve and Oh versus Homecoming and Roberts. Both women give terrific, award-worthy performances. But it’s harder for me to imagine the HFPA overlooking Roberts.
Should win: Keri Russell, The Americans
Will win: Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Best Actor in a Television Series, Musical or Comedy
Jim Carrey, Kidding
Sacha Baron Cohen, Who Is America?
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
If Michael Douglas were not in the mix, I’d say the trophy here would either go to Jim Carrey, a favorite of the HFPA, or Bill Hader, who already won the Emmy for Barry. But Douglas, a 12-time Globes nominee, five-time winner, and previous recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille Award is in the mix, and my best guess is that voters will lean his way.
Should win: Bill Hader, Barry
Will win: Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Best Actress in a Television Series, Musical or Comedy
Kristen Bell, The Good Place
Candice Bergen, Murphy Brown
Alison Brie, GLOW
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Debra Messing, Will & Grace
Rachel Brosnahan, last year’s winner, is fantastic in The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. But, unlike at the Emmys, there are rarely back-to-back wins in this category. (Fun fact: Julia Louis-Dreyfus has been nominated five times for Veep but has never won — not even once!) For that reason, I doubt Brosnahan will win. Instead, I’m looking at either Alison Brie, who goes from big to subtle and funny to dramatic in GLOW, or Kristen Bell, who strikes me as a strong contender, especially if the voters opt not to reward The Good Place for Best Comedy.
Should win: Honestly, it’s a three-way tie between Brosnahan, Bell, and Brie.
Will win: Kristen Bell, The Good Place
Best Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television
Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso
Daniel Brühl,The Alienist
Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Darren Criss’s performance as Andrew Cunanan in The Assassination of Gianni Versace was a breakout moment for the actor. It won him an Emmy, and there’s a good chance it could win him a Golden Globe, too. But he faces some tough competition, particularly from Hugh Grant, who does some of the best work of his career as the smug, duplicitous Jeremy Thorpe in A Very English Scandal. I’m betting that the HFPA will find Grant too hard to resist.
Should win: Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Will win: Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television
Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Connie Britton,Dirty John
Laura Dern, The Tale
Regina King, Seven Seconds
Wow, is this a competitive category. As strong as all the contenders are, though, I think it will come down to three nominees: the fantastic Regina King in Seven Seconds; Patricia Arquette, who physically transforms into Tilly Mitchell in Escape at Dannemora; and Amy Adams, whose damaged Camille dominates Sharp Objects. All three of these women have been nominated at the Globes before, but Adams has the most nods to her credit — counting her two this year for Sharp Objects and Vice, she has nine — as well as two wins. In other words, the HFPA likes her, and with a selection committee this small (there are roughly 90 members of the Foreign Press Association), a track record of being liked matters.
Should win: Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Will win: Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Best Supporting Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Édgar Ramírez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Henry Winkler, Barry
This is a tough call. Both Winkler and Arkin are industry veterans — a potential plus with the HFPA. A wave of support for The Assassination of Gianni Versace could push Ramírez into the winner’s column, and let’s not overlook Kieran Culkin, the best smarmy entitled richie on TV last year. But I keep getting stuck on Ben Whishaw, who is heartbreaking and maddening in equal measure in A Very English Scandal.I think that mini-series could wind up doing a mini-version of the Limited Series sweep Big Little Liespulled off last year.
Should win: Ben Whishaw or Henry Winkler
Will win: Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Best Supporting Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Penélope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale
While all the women in this category are deserving, the two front-runners seem to be Alex Borstein, nominated for Mrs. Maisel for the first time this year, and Patricia Clarkson, the passive-aggressive mommie worstest in Sharp Objects. I can imagine either of these ladies winning, so it’s ultimately going to come down to whether the HFPA love for Mrs. Maisel is stronger than its love for Sharp Objects. (I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility of an upset, perhaps by Cruz.) But my hypothesis is that Clarkson will prevail.
Should win: Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Will win: Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects