https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House
So these midterms got me thinking about how 2020 is gonna shape up, which made me recall how this one professor predicted Trump's victory before pretty much anyone else based on a predictive model he invented called the "13 Keys". Apparently, this guy has gotten every presidential election (popular vote) right since 1984.
Now that we are looking forward to the presidential election of 2020. Let's see how the incumbent looks according to the predictive model:
The 13 Keys to the White House
The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.
So far I count 4 for Trump (2, 3, 10, and 12). Some of these have yet to be determined, but from the look of them, they don't seem all that easy for him to achieve..... And don't let Beto run in 2020, because #12 is a most definite false in that case.
I really wanna see how it goes this time. If this model predicts it again, then I'm sold on it.
So these midterms got me thinking about how 2020 is gonna shape up, which made me recall how this one professor predicted Trump's victory before pretty much anyone else based on a predictive model he invented called the "13 Keys". Apparently, this guy has gotten every presidential election (popular vote) right since 1984.
Now that we are looking forward to the presidential election of 2020. Let's see how the incumbent looks according to the predictive model:
The 13 Keys to the White House
The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
So far I count 4 for Trump (2, 3, 10, and 12). Some of these have yet to be determined, but from the look of them, they don't seem all that easy for him to achieve..... And don't let Beto run in 2020, because #12 is a most definite false in that case.
I really wanna see how it goes this time. If this model predicts it again, then I'm sold on it.
