Swine Flu, Mexico Lung Illness Heighten Pandemic Risk

Panameno718

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April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Disease trackers are asking U.S. hospitals to help follow a new strain of swine flu and are trying to determine whether it’s related to hundreds of illnesses and 57 deaths in Mexico.

A previously unseen variant of H1N1 swine influenza has sickened at least seven people in California and Texas, the Atlanta-based U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said yesterday. The World Health Organization said 57 people died among more than 800 in the Mexico City region who developed flu-like symptoms in the past month.

Global health experts are studying whether the U.S. and Mexico illnesses pose a threat of pandemic, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. U.S. hospitals today were asked to collect samples from patients with flu-like symptoms, said William Schaffner, a flu expert at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee.

“This has a sense of urgency about it,” Schaffner, chief of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt, said in a telephone interview today. “They are asking us who work in hospitals to go to our emergency rooms and our pediatric wards to gather specimens and start testing them.”

Investigators haven’t found a link between the California and Texas cases, indicating the virus may be circulating elsewhere, Schaffner said. CDC disease experts will continue investigating whether the outbreaks have a common source, he said. The agency also will host a conference call today with experts, he said.

Threat of Pandemic

Flu can spread quickly when a new strain emerges, because no one has natural immunity. The so-called 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, which may have killed as many as 50 million people, began when an avian flu virus jumped to people, experts said.

“We are taking this very seriously,” Gregory Hartl, spokesman for WHO, the Geneva-based United Nations agency, said in a telephone interview today. “We have to get laboratory confirmation of what it is. We need to know how widespread it is.” The Mexico illnesses are affecting “otherwise healthy adults,” Hartl said.

Pandemic Potential

“The infection of humans with a novel influenza-A virus infection of animal origins, as has happened here, is of concern because of the risk, albeit small, that this could represent the appearance of viruses with pandemic potential,” the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, based in Stockholm, said in a statement.

There’s no evidence a pandemic strain is evolving in the U.S., the European agency said. The CDC reached the same conclusion.

“We don’t think this is a time for major concern,” Anne Schuchat, CDC’s director of respiratory diseases, told reporters on a conference call yesterday.

Authorities in Mexico asked the Public Health Agency of Canada to help identify what’s causing the lung infection that has also spread to five health-care workers, the Ottawa-based agency said in an e-mail yesterday. Mexico Health Minister Jose Cordova canceled classes in Mexico City today and recommended citizens avoid public places.

Canada’s National Microbiology Lab received 51 specimens from Mexico on April 22 and will test them for pathogens. Tests in Mexico found patients had the H1N1 and type-B influenza strains and the parainfluenza virus, the agency said.

Pigs Susceptible

Three main human flu strains -- H3N2, H1N1 and type-B -- cause 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year globally, according to the World Health Organization, a United Nations agency. Pigs also are susceptible to flu, including the H1N1 subtype.

“It will be critical to determine whether the strains of H1N1 isolated from patients in Mexico are also swine flu,” Donald Low, an infectious diseases specialist at Toronto’s Mount Sinai Hospital, told the Canadian Press.

The CDC is discussing its cases and viruses with Mexico and the Pan American Health Organization, Schuchat said.

“At this point, we do not have any confirmation of swine influenza in Mexico,” Schuchat said.

Symptoms of the illnesses in Mexico include high fever, headache, eye pain, shortness of breath and extreme fatigue with rapid progression of symptoms to severe respiratory distress in about five days, the Canadian agency said. A “high proportion” of cases require mechanical respiration, it said.

U.S. Sickness

The four males and three females in San Diego County and Imperial County, California, and in San Antonio, diagnosed with swine flu had mild flu-like symptoms. The patients, 9 to 54 years old, included a father-daughter pair and two boys attending the same Texas school.

The virus is contagious and spreading from human to human, the CDC said in a statement on its Web site. The patients began feeling sick from March 28 to April 19. All have recovered and only one was hospitalized, according to the CDC. None had direct contact with pigs.

“That’s unusual,” Schuchat said. “We don’t know yet how widely it’s spreading and we certainly don’t know the extent of the problem.”

As precaution, CDC is preparing the virus as a vaccine seed strain that could be used to make immunizations, she said.

The swine flu virus contains four different gene segments representing both North American swine and avian influenza, human flu and a Eurasian swine flu, CDC said.

Not Seen Before

“We haven’t seen this strain before, but we haven’t been looking as intensively as we are these days,” Schuchat said. “It’s very possible that this is something new that hasn’t been happening before.”

Swine influenza is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by type-A influenza that regularly causes outbreaks among the animals, according to the CDC. Swine flu doesn’t normally infect people, though human infections do occur and cases of human-to- human spread of swine flu viruses have been documented.

Infection in pigs is regarded as especially problematic because of the risk of “reassortment” to produce a new virus, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said.

“These mild U.S. cases infected with a novel influenza are not reflecting the emergence of a pandemic strain, but they at least raise the possibility that there has been limited human- to-human transmission,” the health agency said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWVM4e9IDstg&refer=worldwide
 


April 25 (Bloomberg)
-- The deadly swine flu outbreak that’s spread across Mexico and infected people in California and Texas <SPAN style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff00">may be declared an international health emergency</span>.

The World Health Organization will hold a teleconference with flu experts at 4 p.m. Geneva time to decide whether the situation is “a public health event of international concern,” said Gregory Hartl, a WHO spokesman.

At least 68 have died and more than 1,000 have fallen ill with flu-like symptoms in the Mexico City region in the past month, Jose Cordova, Mexico’s Health Minister, told reporters yesterday. The country’s government has shut schools and distributed face masks.

<SPAN style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff00">Human-to-human spread</span> of the previously unseen H1N1 swine influenza in Mexico and the U.S. is heightening concern that the virus may spark a pandemic. WHO Director-General Margaret Chan may raise the level of pandemic alert if today’s meeting recommends that it is globally significant, Hartl said.

`
 
<IFRAME SRC="http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/investigation.htm" WIDTH=780 HEIGHT=1500>
<A HREF="http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/investigation.htm">link</A>

</IFRAME>
 
WE NEED TO SHUT THE BORDER(WE SHOULD OF DONE THIS YEARS AGO) BETWEEN THE USA AND MEXICO BEFORE THIS SWINE FLU STARTS TO SPREAD IN THE USA:smh:.
 
Breaking

Unconfirmed as of yet but flies are being looked at as the possible vector or any type of fly that bites both humans and pigs.

"Clouds of flies" reported in manure lagoons near one of the outbreak sites in Mexico.

Trying to nail it down.

Will update
 
ok got it


The link is being made in the Mexican media, however. “Granjas Carroll, causa de epidemia en La Gloria,” declared a headline in the Vera Cruz-based paper La Marcha. No need to translate that, except to point out that La Gloria is the village where the outbreak seems to have started

http://www.marcha.com.mx/resumen.php?id=2128


The Mexico City daily La Jornada has also made the link. According to the newspaper, the Mexican health agency IMSS has acknowledged that the orginal carrier for the flu could be the “clouds of flies” that multiply in the Smithfield subsidiary’s manure lagoons.

http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2009/04/06/index.php?section=estados&article=030n1es
 
Damn BigUnc, you faster than the CDC, its epidemiologist, CNN and BGOL's CSI ! ! ! LOL

QueEx
 
Damn BigUnc, you faster than the CDC, its epidemiologist, CNN and BGOL's CSI ! ! ! LOL

QueEx

No problem. I'm getting some info from people I know in Public Health. Lots of nail chewing going on in D.C. and State Capitals.
They have sequenced the genome of the CA. strain. Incomplete info is causing a delay in decision making.

More info coming. I'll update when I sort it out
 
I don't know what this means but here it is

In Mexico those who were fatally affected by the new strain died of a secondary bacterial infection due to massive fluid build up in the lungs from the viral infection, or also it seems a few cases died from dehydration from improper care while being sick and some also died of kidney failure caused by extreme fever

The most disturbing is that a majority of the fatal cases have been among formerly perfectly healthy people, between the ages of 20-40, which is strange for a flu virus, which traditionally effects the very young and very old. However the number of fatalities is small and is considered too small to make an accurate census of how different age groups are affected.

Debate about why in Mexico the Virus is more virulent than here.
In Mexico the virus is causing severe lower respiratory illness while in U.S. only mild symptoms and a downtime of 24-72 hrs.

Edit: It's not just flies but any insect that might bite birds,pigs and humans since this variant is a mixture of all 3 types which recombined possibly in the pigs then amassed in the manure lagoons to be picked up again by the insects and deposited on food stock eaten by humans or bitten. This is only a theory at this point.
 
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Forgot this

Anyone that so much as rubs their nose while in a hospital or doctors office in the next week or 2 better be prepared to be pounced on.
 
Seems as though everyone is waiting for WHO and the CDC to make a decision tomorrow on whether they are going to raise the Pandemic alert level.

Came across an article some might think interesting. It generally describes Mexican government preparations but this little passage caught my eye:


The first case was seen in Mexico on April 13. The outbreak coincided with the President Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico City on April 16. Obama was received at Mexico’s anthropology museum in Mexico City by Felipe Solis, a distinguished archeologist who died the following day from symptoms similar to flu, Reforma newspaper reported. The newspaper didn’t confirm if Solis had swine flu or not.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEsNownABJ6Q&refer=home
 
Cover-up! Sick students just came back from Mexico.....

A group of Queens high school students may have brought Mexico's deadly swine flu epidemic to the city after they went on a wild spring-break party to Cancun earlier this month.

A group of seniors from St. Francis Prep in Fresh Meadows took the trip over Easter hiatus two weeks ago. Days later, an outbreak of flu-like symptoms erupted at the school, leaving about 200 kids complaining of flu-like symptoms.

Today, city health officials confirmed that eight students "have probable human swine influenza" after testing positive for Influenza A, which government officials say causes the swine strain of disease.

The finding prompted city health officials to contact all New York hospitals and put them on alert for swine flu.

On Friday, officials tested nine kids at the 2,700-student school after students complained of nausea, dizziness, headache and other symptoms resembling swine flu, which has already killed at least 81 people in Mexico and sickened more than 1,300.

"In every single case, illness was mild," Health Commissioner Dr. Thomas Frieden said today, adding that no one was hospitalized. "Many of the children are feeling better."

It is unclear if the eight students who tested positive were among the group that spent spring break in Cancun.

The World Health Organization said swine flu may soon be a global pandemic.

Kathy Troina, a St. Francis volunteer who has two sons at the school who are not sick, said the symptoms spread like wildfire.

"I personally know five or six kids who went on that trip, and they all seem to be sick," she said. "Then kids slap hands and touch things, and it spreads."

The Health Department is sending samples from the school to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for more testing.

If the illness is confirmed today as swine flu, St. Francis will be closed tomorrow, Frieden said. He wouldn't comment on the Mexico trip, but said, "We are looking at travel histories of the students."

The St. Francis principal, Brother Leonard Conway emphasized "there isn't any confirmation of swine flu," and said he sent letters home before the flu epidemic warning parents "about the dangers on nonschool-sponsored trips, especially to Mexico."

Spring break started April 9, and kids returned April 20.

The school was being sanitized this weekend.

So far, there have been 11 confirmed cases of swine flu in the United States, according to the CDC - seven in California, two in Texas, and a married couple in Kansas. The agency took samples yesterday from a Bronx day-care center where 30 kids were reported sick, and took two calls from concerned parents whose kids were in Mexico and felt sick.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/0425200..._private_school_students_sick_afte_166182.htm
 
The first case was seen in Mexico on April 13. The outbreak coincided with the President Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico City on April 16. Obama was received at Mexico’s anthropology museum in Mexico City by Felipe Solis, a distinguished archeologist who died the following day from symptoms similar to flu, Reforma newspaper reported. The newspaper didn’t confirm if Solis had swine flu or not.

The White House says that President Obama, who traveled to Mexico this month, is in good health and not affected by the swine flu that has killed at least 68 people and sickened hundreds in that country. That’s the word reported today by the Associated Press.

AP quotes Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs as saying, “The president’s trip to Mexico has not put his health in any danger.”

The AP also reports:

The outbreak coincided with President Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico City on April 16. Obama was received at the anthropology museum in Mexico City by Felipe Solis, a distinguished archaeologist who died a week later from symptoms similar to flu, Reforma newspaper reported. The newspaper didn’t say if Solis had swine flu or not.

 
<font size="4"><center>

11 more suspected swine flu cases in U.S.</font size>

<font size="4">
Total reaches 19 with a couple in Kansas, schoolchildren
in New York City and a person in California believed
to have mild cases of swine flu. It is not clear
yet whether virus is easily transmitted</font size></center>


Los Angeles Times
By Thomas H. Maugh II
April 25, 2009


Kansas health authorities had confirmed two new cases of swine flu in their state, California has confirmed another case in Imperial County and New York City officials have identified eight probable cases, bringing the U.S. total to 19 likely cases.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had previously identified six cases in San Diego and Imperial counties and two cases in Guadalupe County, Texas.

The Kansas patients are a couple in Dickinson County. The husband had traveled to Mexico recently, flying out of the Wichita airport. Neither of them was hospitalized, and one has already recovered.

The new case brings the total in California to three cases in Imperial County and four in San Diego. The latest case is a 35-year-old woman who developed symptoms April 4. She was hospitalized and has recovered fully.

In New York, the suspected cases occurred among students at St. Francis Preparatory School, a private high school in Queens. At least 25 of the students had been out sick with influenza symptoms at the end of the week.


The city health department's Public Health Laboratory has completed preliminary screens on nose and throat swabs from nine of the students and found that eight are influenza A. Because they do not match normal human subtypes of influenza A currently in circulation, they are considered probable cases of swine flu.

The samples have been sent to the CDC in Atlanta for confirmation.

All of the cases were mild, and none of the students was hospitalized. The school will be closed Monday as a precaution.

Students at the school had told news outlets that some of them had traveled to Mexico recently, but that has not been confirmed by health officials.

The U.S. cases are in addition to the outbreak in Mexico, which has caused as many as 60 deaths and more than 1,000 infections. U.S. tests on virus samples from 14 Mexican patients confirm that about half of them are swine flu.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-sci-flu26-2009apr26,0,2116819.story
 
fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck

this is my first time reading this - i thought what i heard was bullshit

i just finished a weird ass flu - as did everyone i know - came on slow then when it seemed like it was over it kicked in again- it was weird and everyone had that same double take- im not in any of the areas affected so far but we got it from store contact a relative had im sure- that store does serve many mexican/central americans
 
Mexican Swine Flu Death Toll Growing, 81 Died
By VOA News
26 April 2009


Train riders in Mexico City wear masks after outbreak of swine flu, 24 Apr 2009
Train riders in Mexico City wear masks after outbreak of swine flu, 24 Apr 2009
Mexico's health minister says the swine flu outbreak may now be responsible for 81 deaths.

Jose Angel Cordova issued the revised death toll late Saturday as the Mexican government announced it was shutting down schools in the capital and surrounding areas until May 6.

With reports of more confirmed and possible cases from Mexico and the United States, the World Health Organization declared the virus "a public health emergency of international concern" with "pandemic potential."

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control, Interim Deputy Director Dr. Anne Schuchat, warned that officials "cannot contain the spread of this virus."

New Zealand's health minister Tony Ryall said Sunday 10 students who recently visited Mexico are "likely" to have contracted swine flu.

Officials in Mexico suspect more than 1,300 Mexicans have been sickened by the virus. Sunday Mass has been suspended in many Roman Catholic churches throughout the country.

Mexico City's mayor has canceled all public events for 10 days, and the country's health department has been given the power to isolate patients and inspect travelers.

In the United States, health officials confirmed three new non-fatal cases of the virus, one in California and two in Kansas, bringing the total to 11.

Health officials in the southern U.S. state of Texas say they have temporarily closed a school outside the city of San Antonio after identifying possible cases of swine flu.

New York City's health commissioner said Saturday tests on eight of nine samples taken from sick students at one school came up "probable" for swine flu. But he said all of the possible cases were mild and that many of the children are feeling better.

The WHO is recommending that all countries intensify efforts to track its potential spread but there are growing concerns about the impact swine flu may have on air travel.

British Airways said Saturday a crew member was taken to a London hospital with flu-like symptoms after a flight from Mexico City. And Mexicana Airlines is giving international travelers the option of rescheduling flights to Mexico City at no extra cost.

Health officials say the unusual flu strain contains genetic material from pigs, birds and humans but authorities say none of the U.S. patients had any contact with pigs.

U.S. health officials say swine flu symptoms resemble the regular human seasonal influenza and include fever, lethargy, lack of appetite and coughing.

Some information for this report was provided by AFP, AP and Reuters.
 
UPDATE

DHS to declare Public Health Emergency. This will enable the deployment of anti-viral medications Tamiflu and Relenza from the Strategic stockpile to States that request it and have the ability to accept it and distribute them if needed.

Other info

A confirmed case in Ohio

Potential cases in New Zealand among Teachers and Students after returning from trip to Mexico. They are under quarintine.

Israel reporting a possible case there. No other info since initial report.

France and Spain have 2 suspect cases each after travelers returning from Mexico report flu like symptoms.

Forget about local containment. Forget about border controls. They'll only make things worse. We should be putting all our efforts in managing the consequences.



Edit: changed Colorado to Ohio
 
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U.S. declares swine flu public health emergency!!!!!!!!!!

Government officials have declared a public health emergency in connection with the swine flu outbreak that has killed dozens in Mexico and sickened 20 in the U.S., said the nation’s director of Homeland Security said Sunday.

Janet Napolitano also said border patrol agents have been directed to begin passive surveillance of travelers from Mexico, with instructions to isolate anyone who appears actively ill with suspected influenza.

The number of cases confirmed in the United States by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now 20, including eight New York City high school students. Other cases are in Ohio, California, Texas and Kansas. Patients have ranged in age from 9 to over 50...............

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30398682/
 
how would one know they have it is it the same as any other flu type symptoms? I had the flu 2 weeks ago and it lasted 4 days but iam fine now, went to the doctor and they said I was fine. Iam more worried since I know a coworker is going to mexico in a month.
 
how would one know they have it is it the same as any other flu type symptoms? I had the flu 2 weeks ago and it lasted 4 days but iam fine now, went to the doctor and they said I was fine. Iam more worried since I know a coworker is going to mexico in a month.

I wouldn't sweat it bro. If it was H1N1 and your immune system successfully fought it off you are now immune from a re-occurrence from that particular strain for the rest of our life. If it wasn't and flu like symptoms return beat feet to your doctor. He/She should know what to do. If they stick a cotton swab up your nose then you'll know he/she is on it. If not, ask them to test for it.
 
U.S. officials say the public health emergency is a precaution. Americans are told to prepare for outbreaks but not to panic.
By Jim Tankersley
11:06 AM PDT, April 26, 2009
Reporting from Washington -- Federal officials today declared a public health emergency involving human swine flu, warning Americans to prepare for widespread outbreaks now or in the future, yet urging them not to panic.

In a briefing at the White House, the acting head of the Centers for Disease Control, Dr. Richard Besser, confirmed a 20th case of the flu, this one in Ohio. He said the government will likely find more cases -- and cases that are more severe than the relatively mild ones seen in the United States so far -- as it ramps up detection efforts.



Swine flu outbreak declared 'public... Two airlines let travelers avoid...Swine flu likely in 10 New Zealand students
Mexico scrambles to contain swine flu outbreak
Swine flu outbreak causes Mexico City to close schools

Meanwhile, Nova Scotia's chief public health officer said today that the east coast Canadian province has four confirmed cases of swine flu. And in Mexico, the country's health minister said the disease had killed up to 86 people and likely sickened more than 1,400 since April 13.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said the government would release a quarter of its 50-million-unit strategic reserve of antiviral medications, which combat the disease in infected patients, to states where outbreaks have occurred. Besser said the CDC has begun laying the groundwork to manufacture a swine flu vaccine if one becomes necessary.

The officials cast the moves as aggressive but precautionary, and they counseled calm.


Swine flu is "serious enough to be a great concern to this White House and to this government," White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said on NBC'S "Meet the Press," adding that President Obama is receiving frequent updates on the situation.

"We are taking the proper precautions to address anything that happens," Gibbs said. "It's not a time to panic."

Napolitano said the "emergency" declaration was a routine move to ensure the government is prepared "in an environment where we really don't know, ultimately, what the size or seriousness of this outbreak is going to be."

A swine flu outbreak in Mexico is being blamed for at least 1,000 infections and 81 deaths. There have been 20 reported cases in the United States, none fatal. That includes cases in California, Kansas, Texas, Ohio and New York, where officials confirmed infections today in eight students of a private high school in Queens.

The U.S. patients have ranged in age from 9 to 50. All are recovering or have recovered.

Only one U.S. patient has been hospitalized so far, Besser said. But given the experience in Mexico, he said he expected "that, over time, we are going to see more severe disease in this country."

"This is moving fast," Besser added later, "but I want you to understand that we view this more as a marathon."

The symptoms of swine flu are nearly identical to the symptoms of other influenza, including high fever, aches, coughing and congestion. It appears to spread through human-to-human contact and human contact with live pigs but not by eating pork products, officials said.

Countries around the world moved quickly to limit the disease's spread today. Some issued travel warnings for the United States or Mexico. Others began screening some incoming international air travelers for signs of high fever.

Besser and other officials at the press conference stressed simple steps that the U.S. public can take to limit spread of the disease: Wash hands frequently, stay home, and don't board airplanes, if you feel sick, and keep sick children out of school.

Gibbs said it was too early to speculate about economic effects of an outbreak. And he dismissed reporters who asked if the federal response was hampered by the fact that the Senate had not yet confirmed President Obama's nominee to lead the Health and Human Services department, Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas.

"It's all hands on deck and we're doing fine," Gibbs said. "I would say that we hope we have a new secretary shortly."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-flu-emergency27-2009apr27,0,1491412.story
 
I wouldn't sweat it bro. If it was H1N1 and your immune system successfully fought it off you are now immune from a re-occurrence from that particular strain for the rest of our life. If it wasn't and flu like symptoms return beat feet to your doctor. He/She should know what to do. If they stick a cotton swab up your nose then you'll know he/she is on it. If not, ask them to test for it.

:confused:

What are you saying with that statement, exactly?
 
:confused:

What are you saying with that statement, exactly?
LOL; Ya know!

After reading it several times, I'm thinking he means if they swab your nose, they suspect you have it and they are gathering samples to test and confirm it.

QueEx
 
:confused:

What are you saying with that statement, exactly?

LOL; Ya know!

After reading it several times, I'm thinking he means if they swab your nose, they suspect you have it and they are gathering samples to test and confirm it.

QueEx

He means that if your physician takes a culture- they are being thorough. If they don't, they aren't.

Basically every cold/flu/stomach flu patient should be getting tested. WIth the public health emergency declared, not testing for H1N1 is pretty much criminal.
 
How swine flu could be a bigger threat to humanity than nuclear warfare

By Michael Hanlon
Last updated at 10:23 PM on 26th April 2009



When a new animal virus emerges in some crowded corner of the Third World and the experts start talking gravely about pandemics, the inevitable question is: How much should we worry?

Well, it probably isn't time, quite yet, to be heading for the hills but the emergence of a new and deadly strain of swine flu in Mexico is a matter of serious concern.

If we are lucky, we will see something like a rerun of the SARS or bird flu scares seen earlier this decade - scary but containable outbreaks of disease which have (so far) killed a few dozen to a few hundred people.
Churchgoers in Mexico don face mask sas they meet for mass, listen at the Metropolitan cathedral in Mexico City on Sunday

Pandemic: Churchgoers in Mexico don face mask sas they meet for mass, listen at the Metropolitan cathedral in Mexico City on Sunday

But if we are really unlucky, and experts stress that so far this is looking unlikely, we could be witnessing the beginning of a global catastrophe that could kill tens or even hundreds of millions.

For it remains the fact that in a world awash with new and exotic fears, from computer bugs to terrorist dirty bombs, old-fashioned infectious disease - particularly the numerous influenzas which infect humans, pigs and birds - probably still has the greatest capacity to kill the most people in the shortest time.

In 1918, the 'Spanish Flu' avian flu pandemic (which actually had nothing to do with Spain) probably killed between 50million and 100million, far more than the First World War. If something equally virulent and infectious were to emerge today it is possible that the toll would be even greater.




Firstly because the potential pool of infection is far larger. There are nearly four times as many humans alive today as in 1918. The world's cities are gargantuan (21million live in Mexico City) and the teeming slums of today's Third World, insanitary and packed with livestock, are textbook breeding grounds for any emerging new zoonose (a virus that spreads from animals to people).
Man in the mask: Holidaymaker Alistair Dixon as he arrives at Heathrow on Sunday, met by his father

Holidaymaker Alistair Dixon arrives at Heathrow: Air travel makes the chances of a pandemic much more likely

Then there is travel. Nine decades ago, moving around the globe was time-consuming and expensive, and this alone helped to limit and slow the spread of disease. Today, probably one million passengers are in the air at any time, each potentially carrying a disease.

Already, reports of pig flu are coming in from as far afield as New Zealand and France. If a pandemic begins, governments will talk tough about sealing their borders and screening visitors at airports, but these measures will probably be too late.

Of course medicine is much better now than it was in 1918, but influenza is caused by a virus and we still do not have an effective cure for viral diseases.

Vaccination is possible but these influenza viruses mutate rapidly, mak-So we have to hope that the virus is not very deadly. The H5N1 Avian Influenza strain which hit the headlines five years ago killed about 60 per cent of its human victims, a very high mortality rate. An easily transmissible virus which killed this many would cause a devastating pandemic.

Fortunately, although H5N1 was deadly, it has not to date mutated into a strain which is infectious between humans.

To avoid disaster this new swine flu must either be relatively mild, or hard to transmit (or, preferably, both). Finally, we have to hope we have some natural immunity. The flu strains that come from animals can be particularly difficult to combat because humans often have no immunity against a virus which has previously affected only animals. Humans have none against the H5 viruses, increasing the pandemic potential dramatically.

So far it seems that the mortality rate for the H1N1 Mexican swine flu is around 1 per cent or so at most. This is uncertain, however, as although thousands have reported flu-like symptoms it is not known if they have definitely contracted H1N1.

It is possible that the 83 known deaths are drawn from a much smaller pool of infection, suggesting a higher mortality rate.

It also seems to be the case that H1N1, which normally circulates only between pigs (and is transmissible to humans only after contact with live animals) has mutated into a strain which allows human-to-human transmission.

This is bad news but the infection does seem to respond well to anti-viral treatments such as Tamiflu. The UK, which has a well-rehearsed pandemic strategy, has enough Tamiflu to treat 30million people. And even if this swine flu has pandemic potential, the fact that we are entering summer (when we are generally healthier and less vulnerable) should slow its spread in Britain probably long enough to develop a vaccine.

Finally, and most hopefully, it seems that humans have quite a lot of immunity to H1N1. But sooner or later something like the 1918 disaster will strike again.

Nothing, short of perhaps nuclear war, has such potential to kill so many. The humble virus, our oldest enemy, remains the most deadly of all.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...manity-nuclear-warfare.html?printingPage=true
 
how would one know they have it is it the same as any other flu type symptoms? I had the flu 2 weeks ago and it lasted 4 days but iam fine now, went to the doctor and they said I was fine. Iam more worried since I know a coworker is going to mexico in a month.

Damn. . . I'm going on a cruise to Mexico in about 2 weeks . . .

I'm debating on if I should call and try to get my money back.
 
Damn. . . I'm going on a cruise to Mexico in about 2 weeks . . .

I'm debating on if I should call and try to get my money back.

<font size="5"><center>
Will you avoid traveling to Mexico
because of swine flu fears?</font size></center>



flu-fear.jpg



Atlanta Journal Constitution
by Joy Johnston
April 26, 2009,


While there have been no formal travel restrictions put into place by either the airlines or the government, concerns over the swine flu may damper travel to Mexico. So far, Mexico has seen the largest and deadliest outbreak of the swine flu strain, hence the growing concerns of traveling there. It’s important to note that outbreaks have been found here in the U.S. as well, though so far it seems a milder strain of the swine flu is infecting people in the states.

Would fear of catching a severe strain of the swine flu stop you from traveling to Mexico in the near future? If you already had plans to travel there (and it’s a popular high school senior trip destination this time of year) are you changing your plans or are you going forward with your south-of-the-border plans?


http://blogs.ajc.com/still-travelin...flu-fears/?cxntfid=blogs_still_traveling_blog
 
Damn. . . I'm going on a cruise to Mexico in about 2 weeks . . .

I'm debating on if I should call and try to get my money back.
At this stage I have to question your sanity. Tell the company or travel agent you want a full refund or an open ended reschedule. If they dont give it to you sue them or do a chargeback etc. Believe me, you wont be the first cancellation call they've received and if they want to stay in business they wont try to fuck you over.
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/health/27questions.html
Flu Outbreak Raises a Set of Questions


By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
Published: April 26, 2009

Many questions surround the current outbreak of swine flu, which caused the United States government on Sunday to declare a public health emergency after confirming 20 cases in this country. American officials stressed that the cases here were all mild, with only one person hospitalized.

But in Mexico, where the outbreak began, swine flu is believed to have killed at least 81 people and to have given about 1,300 serious breathing problems. The central question every flu expert in the world would like answered, Dr. Martin Cetron, director of global migration and quarantine for the Centers for Disease Control, said in an interview, is how many mild cases Mexico has had.

“We may just be looking at the tip of the iceberg, which would give you a skewed initial estimate of the case fatality rate,” he said, meaning that there may have been tens of thousands of mild infections, which would then make the number of deaths seemingly low. In that case, as the flu spreads, it would not be surprising if the number of people who become seriously ill remained relatively small.

Right now, the answer is unknowable. Only two laboratories the world, the C.D.C. in Atlanta and the Canadian national laboratory in Winnipeg, have developed the reagents needed to do a positive test for the new flu strain, so samples from any other country must be sent to them for confirmation.

Even in 1918, experts point out, the pandemic Spanish flu infected at least 500 million of the world’s 1.5 billion people, killing 50 million. Many of those lives would have been saved if anti-flu drugs, antibiotics and mechanical ventilators had existed.

In early April, Mexico had noticed that it had high numbers of serious respiratory illnesses and some deaths. It began sending samples to Canada and the United States, asking for help genotyping the new virus.

The ages of the victims in Mexico also concern health officials. Unlike typical flu seasons, when infants and the aged are usually the most vulnerable, none of the initial deaths in Mexico were in people older than 60 or younger than 3 years old, a spokeswoman with the World Health Organization said. Pandemic flus — like the 1918 flu and outbreaks in 1957 and 1968 — often strike young, healthy people the hardest. When a new virus emerges, deaths may occur in healthy adults who mount the strongest immune reactions. Their own defenses — inflammation and leaking fluid in lung cells — can essentially drown them from inside.

A second hypothesis, Dr. Cetron said, is that there is some other factor in Mexico that increased the lethality of the virus, such as co-infection with another microbe or an unwittingly dangerous form of treatment.

For example, a co-infection with the AIDS virus makes it much more likely that someone with tuberculosis will die of it. And Reyes syndrome emerged when infants with fevers were treated with aspirin.

However, Dr. Cetron emphasized that there is no evidence of any co-infection in Mexico or anything unusual about flu treatment there.

Flu experts would also like to know whether this year’s flu shots give any cross-protection against the new swine flu strains. There is an H1N1 human strain in this year’s flu shot, and all H1N1 flus are descendants of the 1918 pandemic strain. But flus pick up many mutations over the years, especially when they move back and forth between humans, pigs, birds and other hosts.

There will be no evidence for several days as to whether the shots are protective, until the C.D.C. can get stored blood samples with antibodies to the flu shot and test them against the new virus. Those tests are under way now, according to a flu expert who sent the C.D.C. his blood samples.

In several countries, students reported they were ill upon returning from spring break in Mexico. For example, three teachers and 22 students at Rangitoto College, a New Zealand high school near Auckland, were reported to be ill after arriving after a three-week trip to Mexico on a flight via Los Angeles.

Mexico’s annual flu season was trailing off in March, when there was a new spike in cases. That usually happens when B strain flus peak late in the season, but B strains are usually mild. Mexico sent samples to the United States and Canada after its officials realized the country was having an unusual outbreak with severe cases.
 
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U.S. airlines waive fees for
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Cable News Network
April 27, 2009


(CNN) -- Though the United States has not issued any travel warnings related to the swine flu outbreak in Mexico, major U.S. airlines are waiving fees for passengers who want to change their tickets to Mexico.

  • Continental Airlines said Sunday that it will allow passengers to reschedule or reroute their travel without charging them a fee -- if they are scheduled to fly to Mexico through May 6.

  • American Airlines is allowing customers to change their flights without penalty if they are flying to Mexico through May 6.

  • United Airlines is issuing a travel waiver to customers traveling to Mexico City through April 30.

  • And Delta Air Lines is waiving the change fee for customers traveling to Mexico through May 4.

  • On Saturday, US Airways said it would allow passengers to change plans if they wanted to because of the outbreak.

US Airways is not asking people to avoid Mexico, but wants to offer them flexibility if "they don't feel comfortable," spokeswoman Michelle Mohr said.

The U.S. Air Transport Association is in regular contact with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Katherine Andrus, an attorney for the airline trade association.

Airlines are following their own procedures in watching for sick passengers and crews have standard procedures for dealing with them, Andrus said. Any onboard communicable disease incidents must be reported to the CDC, she said.

"This is a time for appropriate precautions but not panic," she said.



http://www.cnn.com/2009/TRAVEL/04/27/swine.flu.airlines/



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At this stage I have to question your sanity. Tell the company or travel agent you want a full refund or an open ended reschedule. If they dont give it to you sue them or do a chargeback etc. Believe me, you wont be the first cancellation call they've received and if they want to stay in business they wont try to fuck you over.

I'm not crazy. I just hadn't realized the seriousness of it yet.
 
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