Superdelegates: A guide to the undecided
By: Avi Zenilman
March 30, 2008 05:54 PM EST
In a Democratic nominating contest that could ultimately be decided by their votes, divining the intentions of the 794 Democratic superdelegates has become something of a Washington parlor game.
By nearly all counts—generally measured by public endorsements or statements—over 460 members of this select group pf party leaders and officials, members of Congress and other elected officeholders is already spoken for. Among these superdelegates, Hillary Clinton has the lead over Barack Obama.
But for those who remain uncommitted —somewhere in the neighborhood of 250 superdelegates—their public statements are parsed for meaning, their personal and political backgrounds mined for evidence of whether they are likely to support Clinton or Obama supporters. And then there’s the 74 or so who haven’t even been named yet.
Many of these superdelegates are genuinely unsure of which candidate to vote for at the Democratic National Convention. But many might also be playing possum, reluctant to go public for reasons related to their own political fortunes or party standing.
“There are no undecided superdelegates,” explained a Democratic superdelegate who asked to remain anonymous. “Or at least there are very few of them. Most undeclared supers are just that, undeclared.”
In the interest of understanding the mindset of these fence-sitters—and further enabling the new Beltway pastime—Politico offers a taxonomy of the uncommitted.
The Crypto-Obamans
These superdelegates have made highly suggestive statements that they personally prefer Obama or have supported rule-based arguments that, given the state of play, bolster his claim to the nomination.
Examples
· Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi: Though she has been careful not to endorse either candidate, Pelosi is widely believed to be a secret admirer of Obama. Tea leaf readers point to her call for the superdelegates to follow the pledged delegate leader—almost certain to be Obama. Her recent contretemps with Clinton donors has only hardened the perception that her affinity is for the Illinois senator.
· Texas superdelegate Denise Johnson: Johnson is uncommitted, but only in the most formal sense of the word. She told the Dallas Morning News she voted for Obama in the primary and plans on voting for the delegate leader at the national convention.
· Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar: “Barack’s impressive showing in our state is attractive to me,” she told the New York Times. “If somehow 200 superdelegates decide this, it will be problematic.” So the senator is uncommitted, but on a first name basis with Obama, who won her state by a 2-1 margin.
The Throwbacks
You might also call them proud, unapologetic superdelegates. They carry the whiff of the party bosses of old and have no problem with the notion of party elders deciding the nominee, even if it means deciding against the candidate with the most pledged delegates.
It’s not that they don’t care what rank-and-file Democratic voters think – they just value their role as “deciders.” For these superdelegates, usually pols who are influential or politically safe enough not to worry about any grassroots backlash, the popular vote and the pledged delegate count are just metrics to consider as they decide for themselves who would be the party’s strongest possible nominee in the general election.
The Clinton campaign hopes – or needs – superdelegates to take a variation of this stance.
But keep in mind that being a Throwback isn’t synonymous with being a Clinton supporter.
Examples:
· House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer: "I think they should do what they were intended to do," Hoyer has said. "Superdelegates should bring their expertise and judgment to this very critical decision on who's going to lead our country for the next four years."
· House Majority Whip James Clyburn: “I think that the historical significance of so-called superdelegates, these are unpledged delegates - is very, very important for us to maintain,” the House Whip told NPR in February. “We are in place in order to either extend the wishes of the voters or to try to make corrections if they need to be made.”
· Iowa Democratic Chairman Scott Brennan: “I don’t know if there are any guidelines to follow,” Brennan told the New York Times. Though Obama won his state, he noted, “I don’t feel like I’m obligated necessarily to declare for Senator Obama, though I may ultimately reach that conclusion.”
The Parochials
For them, there’s no place like home. They’ll need reassurances that there’s something in it for them or for the places they hail from.
Examples
· Ohio Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur. After her state’s March 4 primary, Kaptur and her congressional delegation colleagues decided to join as a bloc and withhold their endorsements until they could force trade issues to the fore. “Our job is to represent our constituents and their deepest concerns,” she said on the group’s behalf. “I’m hoping superdelegates [who] are uncommitted that have the economy as their major concern will gravitate to our group and use that power to gain additional attention.”
· North Carolina DNC Committeeman David Parker: Parker told The News & Observer that one important factor in his decision will be the extent to which each candidate helps with down-ballot races in his state.
· Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal: Early in the campaign, the governor said he didn’t like any of the candidates, Republican or Democratic, because they weren’t talking about Western issues. But he has since changed his tune after speaking with the candidates and recently even suggested he might name his candidate before the convention.
The Nailbiters
Generally these superdelegates hail from the kinds of places where the national party isn’t warmly regarded and the Democratic presidential nominee sometimes ends up as a millstone around candidates’ necks. Nailbiters tend to be politically vulnerable officeholders—like freshmen members of Congress. An early or public endorsement tends to offer these pols far more risk than return.
Examples:
· Florida Congressman Tim Mahoney: George W. Bush carried his district twice, so Mahoney needs to be far more circumspect than the typical superdelegate. In fact, the freshman Democrat told a local newspaper, “I have better things to do in my district” then go out to Denver for the party convention.
· California Congressman Jerry McNerney: A freshman facing a tough re-election fight in a Bush district, McNerney admitted to the Associated Press that either Clinton or Obama could prove to be a liability to him. "I've got my own very competitive race coming up, and I want to focus on that," he said.
The Strong and Silents
This category tends to include party heavyweights and other notables whose endorsements will carry some heft. The relative silence from these superdelegates has only enhanced the value of their endorsement—which might lead them to hold out even longer.
Examples
· Former Vice President Al Gore: Many believe he’s a crypto-Obaman, especially now that he is openly talking about how the race will resolve itself soon. But as a Democratic solon diminished by his endorsement of Howard Dean in the 2004 race, he’s in no hurry.
· Virginia Sen. Jim Webb: His military credentials and rising stature within the party mean his endorsement will be far more consequential than one from the average senator.
· Illinois Congressman Rahm Emanuel: “I think that I am going to hide under this desk if both of them ran," he told the Chicago Sun-Times as far back as November 2006. He's still hiding. Emanuel’s dilemma is tougher than most. The House Democratic Caucus Chairman, Emanuel is the only member of the Illinois congressional delegation who hasn’t lined up behind Obama. But he’s also a former Clinton White House staffer.
The Unknowns
These are the superdelegates who aren’t yet superdelegates. This group includes individuals who will fill vacancies in Congress before the convention takes place, and the remaining add-on delegates, who will be selected by state party committees and conventions over the next few months. The exact number is unknown but it will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 75 superdelegates.
So these superdelegates aren’t exactly undecided. Rather, it’s undecided who they are.
By: Avi Zenilman
March 30, 2008 05:54 PM EST
In a Democratic nominating contest that could ultimately be decided by their votes, divining the intentions of the 794 Democratic superdelegates has become something of a Washington parlor game.
By nearly all counts—generally measured by public endorsements or statements—over 460 members of this select group pf party leaders and officials, members of Congress and other elected officeholders is already spoken for. Among these superdelegates, Hillary Clinton has the lead over Barack Obama.
But for those who remain uncommitted —somewhere in the neighborhood of 250 superdelegates—their public statements are parsed for meaning, their personal and political backgrounds mined for evidence of whether they are likely to support Clinton or Obama supporters. And then there’s the 74 or so who haven’t even been named yet.
Many of these superdelegates are genuinely unsure of which candidate to vote for at the Democratic National Convention. But many might also be playing possum, reluctant to go public for reasons related to their own political fortunes or party standing.
“There are no undecided superdelegates,” explained a Democratic superdelegate who asked to remain anonymous. “Or at least there are very few of them. Most undeclared supers are just that, undeclared.”
In the interest of understanding the mindset of these fence-sitters—and further enabling the new Beltway pastime—Politico offers a taxonomy of the uncommitted.
The Crypto-Obamans
These superdelegates have made highly suggestive statements that they personally prefer Obama or have supported rule-based arguments that, given the state of play, bolster his claim to the nomination.
Examples
· Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi: Though she has been careful not to endorse either candidate, Pelosi is widely believed to be a secret admirer of Obama. Tea leaf readers point to her call for the superdelegates to follow the pledged delegate leader—almost certain to be Obama. Her recent contretemps with Clinton donors has only hardened the perception that her affinity is for the Illinois senator.
· Texas superdelegate Denise Johnson: Johnson is uncommitted, but only in the most formal sense of the word. She told the Dallas Morning News she voted for Obama in the primary and plans on voting for the delegate leader at the national convention.
· Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar: “Barack’s impressive showing in our state is attractive to me,” she told the New York Times. “If somehow 200 superdelegates decide this, it will be problematic.” So the senator is uncommitted, but on a first name basis with Obama, who won her state by a 2-1 margin.
The Throwbacks
You might also call them proud, unapologetic superdelegates. They carry the whiff of the party bosses of old and have no problem with the notion of party elders deciding the nominee, even if it means deciding against the candidate with the most pledged delegates.
It’s not that they don’t care what rank-and-file Democratic voters think – they just value their role as “deciders.” For these superdelegates, usually pols who are influential or politically safe enough not to worry about any grassroots backlash, the popular vote and the pledged delegate count are just metrics to consider as they decide for themselves who would be the party’s strongest possible nominee in the general election.
The Clinton campaign hopes – or needs – superdelegates to take a variation of this stance.
But keep in mind that being a Throwback isn’t synonymous with being a Clinton supporter.
Examples:
· House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer: "I think they should do what they were intended to do," Hoyer has said. "Superdelegates should bring their expertise and judgment to this very critical decision on who's going to lead our country for the next four years."
· House Majority Whip James Clyburn: “I think that the historical significance of so-called superdelegates, these are unpledged delegates - is very, very important for us to maintain,” the House Whip told NPR in February. “We are in place in order to either extend the wishes of the voters or to try to make corrections if they need to be made.”
· Iowa Democratic Chairman Scott Brennan: “I don’t know if there are any guidelines to follow,” Brennan told the New York Times. Though Obama won his state, he noted, “I don’t feel like I’m obligated necessarily to declare for Senator Obama, though I may ultimately reach that conclusion.”
The Parochials
For them, there’s no place like home. They’ll need reassurances that there’s something in it for them or for the places they hail from.
Examples
· Ohio Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur. After her state’s March 4 primary, Kaptur and her congressional delegation colleagues decided to join as a bloc and withhold their endorsements until they could force trade issues to the fore. “Our job is to represent our constituents and their deepest concerns,” she said on the group’s behalf. “I’m hoping superdelegates [who] are uncommitted that have the economy as their major concern will gravitate to our group and use that power to gain additional attention.”
· North Carolina DNC Committeeman David Parker: Parker told The News & Observer that one important factor in his decision will be the extent to which each candidate helps with down-ballot races in his state.
· Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal: Early in the campaign, the governor said he didn’t like any of the candidates, Republican or Democratic, because they weren’t talking about Western issues. But he has since changed his tune after speaking with the candidates and recently even suggested he might name his candidate before the convention.
The Nailbiters
Generally these superdelegates hail from the kinds of places where the national party isn’t warmly regarded and the Democratic presidential nominee sometimes ends up as a millstone around candidates’ necks. Nailbiters tend to be politically vulnerable officeholders—like freshmen members of Congress. An early or public endorsement tends to offer these pols far more risk than return.
Examples:
· Florida Congressman Tim Mahoney: George W. Bush carried his district twice, so Mahoney needs to be far more circumspect than the typical superdelegate. In fact, the freshman Democrat told a local newspaper, “I have better things to do in my district” then go out to Denver for the party convention.
· California Congressman Jerry McNerney: A freshman facing a tough re-election fight in a Bush district, McNerney admitted to the Associated Press that either Clinton or Obama could prove to be a liability to him. "I've got my own very competitive race coming up, and I want to focus on that," he said.
The Strong and Silents
This category tends to include party heavyweights and other notables whose endorsements will carry some heft. The relative silence from these superdelegates has only enhanced the value of their endorsement—which might lead them to hold out even longer.
Examples
· Former Vice President Al Gore: Many believe he’s a crypto-Obaman, especially now that he is openly talking about how the race will resolve itself soon. But as a Democratic solon diminished by his endorsement of Howard Dean in the 2004 race, he’s in no hurry.
· Virginia Sen. Jim Webb: His military credentials and rising stature within the party mean his endorsement will be far more consequential than one from the average senator.
· Illinois Congressman Rahm Emanuel: “I think that I am going to hide under this desk if both of them ran," he told the Chicago Sun-Times as far back as November 2006. He's still hiding. Emanuel’s dilemma is tougher than most. The House Democratic Caucus Chairman, Emanuel is the only member of the Illinois congressional delegation who hasn’t lined up behind Obama. But he’s also a former Clinton White House staffer.
The Unknowns
These are the superdelegates who aren’t yet superdelegates. This group includes individuals who will fill vacancies in Congress before the convention takes place, and the remaining add-on delegates, who will be selected by state party committees and conventions over the next few months. The exact number is unknown but it will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 75 superdelegates.
So these superdelegates aren’t exactly undecided. Rather, it’s undecided who they are.
