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New Orleans's Undecided Black Voters
May Determine Nagin's Fate </font size></center>
May 19 (Bloomberg)
Stephanie Andrews spent six days in filth and despair at the New Orleans Superdome after Hurricane Katrina and is emphatic about how she'll vote for mayor tomorrow -- to re-elect Ray Nagin to ``finish the job'' of rebuilding.
Her husband, Lee, a cook at a corporate headquarters downtown, disagrees. He leans toward handing the job of preparing for future hurricanes and guiding New Orleans's multibillion- dollar recovery effort to Nagin's opponent, Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu, for the next four years.
Nagin's chances for a new term are riding in large part on how big a majority he wins from black voters such as the Andrewses, whose house in the Lower Ninth Ward flooded to the ceiling when the Industrial Canal was breached, submerging the poor and working class neighborhood for weeks. A Tulane University poll this week showed that more black people are undecided than white people in the runoff election.
``It's certainly not out of Nagin's reach, but 20 to 25 percent of the black vote going to Landrieu won't do it,'' said Brian Brox, the political science professor who conducted the poll. ``If he can keep that percentage to the teens or lower, he's got a shot.'' Nagin also needs to spur turnout among black voters, Brox said.
Though Nagin is black, Landrieu is white and New Orleans has a long history of racial division, both Democrats have crossover support.
Landrieu's Edge
Among black voters, Nagin received 53 percent to Landrieu's 29 percent in the May 13-15 Tulane survey. Among white voters, Landrieu took 68 percent to Nagin's 22 percent. Eighteen percent of blacks surveyed said they were undecided, compared with 10 percent of whites. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.
The poll gave Landrieu 48 percent support among the 434 likely voters surveyed. Nagin got 38 percent, with 14 percent undecided.
Landrieu, 49, spent 15 years in the Louisiana Legislature. He is the brother of U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu and son of Moon Landrieu, New Orleans's last white mayor, who racially integrated city government in the 1970s.
Nagin, 45, a cable-television executive and political novice when elected four years ago, has a strained relationship with Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco, having endorsed her Republican foe in 2003.
Voter Shifts
Criticized for his handling of Katrina and its aftermath as well as comments that the city should remain ``chocolate,'' or majority black, Nagin has lost most of his support among whites who overwhelmingly voted for him in 2002, interviews with voters, the Tulane poll, and voting patterns in the April 22 primary suggest. Among blacks, Nagin still holds sway.
Stephanie Andrews, a 46-year-old homemaker, credits Nagin for staying and trying his best for the city she has lived in her entire life.
``He was the only one I heard on the radio when I was in the Superdome,'' she said.
Her husband, who also was in the Superdome, said Landrieu can better marshal the resources to rebuild the city.
``We need help from the state and federal governments; Landrieu's got more pull to do that,'' Lee says, echoing a sentiment repeated often in both black and white neighborhoods. ``People will deal with Landrieu more because he's been in politics.''
Yet Lee Andrews isn't totally sold on Landrieu. Nagin's campaign effort to turn Landrieu's pedigree and even his fundraising prowess into a liability -- a reminder of old-time, notoriously corrupt Louisiana politics -- resonates with black voters, even some inclined toward the challenger.
Racial Proportion
``Landrieu might be too much of a politician,'' said Lee Andrews. ``We've had a lot of politicians who weren't any good.''
Blacks outnumber whites 2-to-1 among New Orleans's almost 300,000 registered voters, mirroring the ratio in the pre-Katrina population. The city now has less than half the 485,000 people from before the Aug. 29 storm, which affected black neighborhoods disproportionately.
In the April primary, 51 percent of registered whites voted, the same as in 2002. Only 31 percent of registered blacks did, down from 45 percent in 2002. That makes Nagin's weak support among whites a bigger liability, and means he must draw most of the vote from blacks, a majority of whom didn't support him in 2002. Both Nagin and Landrieu are Democrats.
Displaced voters can cast absentee ballots or vote at polling stations elsewhere in Louisiana.
Nagin also is seeking support among the 60 percent of whites who backed the 20 also-ran candidates in the primary, in which Nagin got 38 percent of the vote to 29 percent for Landrieu.
Nagin Foes
The fourth-place finisher, Republican Rob Couhig, is supporting Nagin as a better friend to business. Couhig voter Michael Grieb doesn't buy it.
``If we vote for the status quo, we're less likely to get help from the rest of the country,'' said Grieb, 49, a white physician from the largely devastated Lakeview section who calls himself a conservative independent. ``We'll be seen as not helping ourselves.''
Ominous for Nagin's chances is sentiment in New Orleans East, where many of the city's black professionals live and Landrieu signs adorn numerous yards. Accountant Joy Rodriguez and her husband, Malcolm, settled there when they retired and returned to their native New Orleans two years ago. Their ranch house took about three feet of water.
``We need experience and I don't think it's Nagin,'' Rodriguez said, sitting amid plaster dust and new sheetrock in their home, still under repair. She cited the bad blood with Governor Blanco, who will control much of the rebuilding money, and Nagin's frequent changes of course, including backing away from early comments that it might not make sense to rebuild some sections of town.
``Nagin has a way of running off at the mouth that doesn't help,'' Rodriguez said. ``Especially his `chocolate city' comment.''
To contact the reporter for this story:
Josh P. Hamilton in New Orleans at
jphamilton@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: May 19, 2006 00:05 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aceVLMn76Shw&refer=us
