Satire
- Thread starter followup
- Start date
● Black people will be marginalized since our political leaders ask for nothing despite delivering 95% of the Black vote, the HISPANICS will become the preferred "minorities"
http://www.bgol.us/forum/index.php?posts/16603668
I 100% understand strategic voting; voting for one's self-interest
The corporate $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ controlled two-party system has given us two transparently awful candidates
Blacks voting for the Democratic party choice is perspicacious.....but.....what do Black voters get for their 100% support???
IMMIGRANT stealing everything within sight or hearing. Isn't he building a Wall ???
[/MEDIA]
As of July 27, 2016:
Election 2016 Clinton Trump RCP Average
RCP Poll Average
Clinton: 44.6
Trump: 45.7
Trump: +1.1
Favoribility Ratings
Clinton: -17.2
Trump: -21.1
Clinton: +3.9
Electoral College
RCP Electoral Map
Clinton: 202
Trump: 164
Clinton: +38
No Toss Up States
Clinton 322
Trump 216
Battlegrounds
Pennsylvania
Clinton 45.5
Trump 42.3
Spread Clinton +3.2
Michigan
Clinton 41.0
Sprint 35.8
Spread Clinton +5.2
Ohio
Clinton 42.6
Trump 41.8
Spread Clinton +0.8
Florida
Clinton 43.5
Trump 43.8
Spread Trump +0.3
Iowa
Clinton 41.3
Spread 40.8
Spread Clinton +0.5
Wisconsin
Clinton 44.3
Trump 38.7
Spread Clinton +5.6
New Hampshire
Clinton 43.0
Trump 39.3
Spread Clinton +3.7
Virginia
Clinton42.3
Trump 37.0
Spread Clinton +5.3
North Carolina
Clinton 44.0
Trump 42.0
Spread Clinton +2.0
Georgia
Clinton 41.5
Trump 46.0
Spread Trump +4.5
Missouri
Clinton 37.0
Trump 45.3
Spread Trump +8.3
Colorado
Clinton 44.6
Trump 36.6
Spread Clinton +8.0
Nevada
Clinton 41.7
Trump 43.7
Spread Trump +2.0
Arizona
Clinton 43.5
Trump 43.0
Spread Clinton +0.5
Clinton gets a post-convention bounce,
Now Can Someone Get This &\#$^ to Shut up About Those Damn Emails ???
WASHINGTON -- Hillary Clinton got her bounce after the Democratic convention opened up a 7-point lead in the latest CBS News poll.
Clinton led Republican nominee Donald Trump by 46-39 percent. After the Republican convention they were tied at 42 percent. Just prior to both conventions, they were tied at 40 percent each.
CBS found the bump similar to what President Barack Obama got in 2008 and 2012, but well below the 13-point bounce that Bill Clinton got in 1992.
The new poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, as controversy raged over the comments of Khizr Khan, father of a soldier killed in Iraq. Khan criticized Trump on the last night of the Democratic convention, and Trump has been firing back ever since.
There appears to be little chance for significant movement to or from either candidate, though. Nine of 10 Clinton and Trump voters say their minds are made up.
Clinton picked up many backers of independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, her chief rival for the Democratic nomination. Before the convention, two-thirds of Sanders supporters said they’d back Clinton. That figure is now up to 73 percent.
SOURCE: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article93018487.html
.
leads Trump by 7 in CBS poll
Now Can Someone Get This &\#$^ to Shut up About Those Damn Emails ???
WASHINGTON -- Hillary Clinton got her bounce after the Democratic convention opened up a 7-point lead in the latest CBS News poll.
Clinton led Republican nominee Donald Trump by 46-39 percent. After the Republican convention they were tied at 42 percent. Just prior to both conventions, they were tied at 40 percent each.
CBS found the bump similar to what President Barack Obama got in 2008 and 2012, but well below the 13-point bounce that Bill Clinton got in 1992.
The new poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, as controversy raged over the comments of Khizr Khan, father of a soldier killed in Iraq. Khan criticized Trump on the last night of the Democratic convention, and Trump has been firing back ever since.
There appears to be little chance for significant movement to or from either candidate, though. Nine of 10 Clinton and Trump voters say their minds are made up.
Clinton picked up many backers of independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, her chief rival for the Democratic nomination. Before the convention, two-thirds of Sanders supporters said they’d back Clinton. That figure is now up to 73 percent.
SOURCE: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article93018487.html
.
Good puppy!
Donald Trump's love affair with polls is definitely over
Jacksonville. (Photo by Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images)
All great love stories come to an end.
This week, we have witnessed the collapse of a romance for the ages. We pause now to pay tribute to the epic relationship between Donald Trump and his poll numbers — a pairing that appears to be, if not over, definitely on a break.
So far, it's a rocky breakup. When the Republican nominee has mentioned polls at all, it's either to reminisce about far happier times and deny that anything has changed, or to dismiss entirely the story surveys are telling now. No longer — at least, not from Monday afternoon through Thursday night, when we're typing this — is he tweeting cheery poll graphics or text toplines. Once, there was love. Right now, there is only an empty space.
Denver. (AP Photo/Brennan Linsley)
The best polling news for Donald Trump on Thursday was that an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll had him down only 9 points to Hillary Clinton.
That survey was released a little while after a poll from McClatchy/Marist that showed Trump down 15 points, pulling only 33 percent of the vote. Those numbers are, to put it bluntly, shocking. Mitt Romney was never down by that much to President Obama in 2012; his worst poll was a survey in June from Bloomberg that had him down 13, with 40 percent of the vote.
In only one of the four major polls released this week is Trump over 40 percent, which is itself remarkable. Each of the four had Clinton gaining ground since the last time the same outlet released a poll, by an average of about 5 points. Three of the four showed Trump losing ground, by a little more than 3 points.
The two new polls show a pattern that's consistent with other recent surveys, including at the state level. Clinton is getting more support from Democrats than Trump is from Republicans, and his advantage among men and white voters has diminished. In both of the new polls, Clinton leads with men, which has not been the trend over the course of this election.
Among black voters, Trump is doing particularly poorly, earning only a percentage point or two. (The results in the Fox News poll were similar.) Comparing how Trump is faring in these polls to how Mitt Romney did (according to exit polls) is revelatory. Romney won men by 7 points; Trump trails by 1 and 7 points in the new polls. Romney won white voters by 20; Trump leads by 2 and 5 points. Romney won Republicans by 87 points. In the McClatchy/Marist poll, Trump is winning by only 73 points -- a big dip among more than a third of the electorate.
Because the four new polls are divergent -- showing Clinton leads of 9, 9, 10 and 15 points -- we look at the average of recent polls, compiled by RealClearPolitics. We did a version of the chart below on Wednesday, when Trump's week in polling was only terrible and not completely horrible. His average in the recent polls is now back to what it was before both conventions. Clinton's gained 4 points and now leads in the average by 7 points.
How big is that? Big. Relative to Election Day in 2004, 2008 and 2012, Clinton's lead is more than twice that of the eventual victor at this point. In 2004, George W. Bush had a 6-point lead for a few weeks; in 2008, Barack Obama led by 6 points or more for the final month or so. Other than that, though, Clinton's lead is exceptional.
Notice that blue line, though. Donald Trump now trails Hillary Clinton in the polling average by more than Mitt Romney ever did in the final 150 days. In fact, Romney never trailed by that much for the last year of the campaign.
One consolation for Trump probably lies in that rapid spike in the polling average -- a spike that conceivably could rocket back the other direction if ... something. It spiked because the Democrats had four straight days to hammer Trump and praise Clinton, of course, which is hard to duplicate.
The other consolation for Trump is that at least only one of the two polls today had him losing by double digits.
--Philip Bump
THE WAY THEY WERE (via Chris Cillizza)
Right now, he's running a big-league deficit in most national polls. (Photo by Sarah Rice/Getty Images)
Donald Trump and polls have had a long and unusually good relationship. Throughout the Republican primary, polls showed Trump at or near the top of the field. He dutifully cited them — and cited them — as evidence that he was #winning, and that everyone who second-guessed his unorthodox campaign style was, in a word, dumb.
It was Trump's ultimate defense. Every time another candidate or a party leader raised questions about his fitness for office or his conservative credentials, he could always point to polling that showed the Republican primary electorate siding with him. It served as his uber-example of how out of touch the party establishment was with its base; every time they predicted something he said or did would doom his campaign, his poll numbers went up. (See Muslim ban, build wall and make Mexico pay for it, etc.)
Of late, though, the Trump-polls friendship has fallen on hard times. Very hard times.
Jacksonville. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
He's down 17 points to Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
Down 11 in Pennsylvania.
Down six in Michigan.
And national polling is no better.
That polling reality doesn't mean that Trump isn't still trying to lean on polls to make the point that he is winning. At the start of a rally Wednesday in Daytona Beach, Fla., Trump cited a "new" poll that showed him ahead by eight points in Florida. But there hasn't been any "new" polling done since early July — before the two conventions —in the state. And, of the 14 most recent polls in the state, Trump has led Clinton in just four.
For the past 15 months, we've all been wondering what would happen to Trump if his beloved poll numbers took a turn for the worst. So much of Trump's pitch to voters was based on his standing in the polls — I'm winning and that means I am a winner and, therefore, someone you should vote for — that it was hard to imagine what he would even say if he wasn't ahead.
That question never really got answered in the primary because Trump never experienced any sort of extended polling slump. But it is quite clearly happening right now.
Trump seems to be struggling to deal with it. In Jacksonville on Wednesday night, Trump went through his usual litany of the big crowds he is drawing — "We go to Oklahoma, we had 25,000 people. We had 21,000 people in Dallas" — before turning more introspective: “I hear we’re leading Florida by a bit,” he said. “I don’t know why we’re not leading by a lot. Maybe crowds don’t make the difference.”
There are a lot of them. That may tell us...not very much. (Photo by Sarah Rice/Getty Images)
The smartest thing Trump could do when asked about his poll problems is to note that Clinton is enjoying a very traditional convention bounce and that the race will eventually settle down to a close single digit contest.
But Trump rarely does the politically smart thing — particularly when he feels betrayed by the same polls that were so good to him for so long. And there are already indications that Trump — a friend spurned — is going to burn the bridges of his past close relationship with polls.
"I think these polls — I don't know — there's something about these polls, there's something phony,"
Trump said Tuesday at a rally in Loudoun County, Va.
Trump said Tuesday at a rally in Loudoun County, Va.
Right.
--Chris Cillizza
SOURCE: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-is-definitely-over/57a3cf3dcd249a7e29d0cf79/
.
As of August 15, 2016:
Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average
Clinton: 47.8
Trump: 41.0
Clinton +6.8
Favorability Ratings
Clinton: -11.3
Trump: -28.7
Clinton +17.4
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map
Clinton: 256
Trump: 154
Clinton +102
No Toss-ups
Clinton: 362
Trump: 176
Battlegrounds
Pennsylvania
Clinton: 49.2
Trump: 40.0
Clinton +9.2
Michigan
Clinton: 41.8
Trump: 35.2
Clinton +6.6
Ohio
Clinton: 45.0
Trump: 42.4
Clinton +2.6
Florida
Clinton: 45.6
Trump: 42.0
Clinton +3.6
Iowa
Clinton: 40.8
Trump: 40.4
Clinton +0.4
Wisconsin
Clinton: 46.7
Trump: 37.3
Clinton +9.4
North Carolina 4
Clinton: 5.3
Trump: 43.3
Clinton +2.0
Virginia
Clinton: 44.5
Trump: 36.5
Clinton +8.0
New Hampshire
Clinton: 45.5
Trump: 37.3
Clinton +8.2
Georgia
Clinton: 43.3
Trump: 43.0
Clinton +0.3
Missouri
Clinton: 39.0
Trump: 44.3
Trump +5.3
Colorado
Clinton: 45.8
Trump: 34.8
Clinton +11.0
Nevada
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 40.7
Clinton +2.3
Arizona
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 43.3
Trump +0.3
SOURCE: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
.
Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average
Clinton: 47.8
Trump: 41.0
Clinton +6.8
Favorability Ratings
Clinton: -11.3
Trump: -28.7
Clinton +17.4
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map
Clinton: 256
Trump: 154
Clinton +102
No Toss-ups
Clinton: 362
Trump: 176
Battlegrounds
Pennsylvania
Clinton: 49.2
Trump: 40.0
Clinton +9.2
Michigan
Clinton: 41.8
Trump: 35.2
Clinton +6.6
Ohio
Clinton: 45.0
Trump: 42.4
Clinton +2.6
Florida
Clinton: 45.6
Trump: 42.0
Clinton +3.6
Iowa
Clinton: 40.8
Trump: 40.4
Clinton +0.4
Wisconsin
Clinton: 46.7
Trump: 37.3
Clinton +9.4
North Carolina 4
Clinton: 5.3
Trump: 43.3
Clinton +2.0
Virginia
Clinton: 44.5
Trump: 36.5
Clinton +8.0
New Hampshire
Clinton: 45.5
Trump: 37.3
Clinton +8.2
Georgia
Clinton: 43.3
Trump: 43.0
Clinton +0.3
Missouri
Clinton: 39.0
Trump: 44.3
Trump +5.3
Colorado
Clinton: 45.8
Trump: 34.8
Clinton +11.0
Nevada
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 40.7
Clinton +2.3
Arizona
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 43.3
Trump +0.3
SOURCE: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
.
Similar threads
