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SNL introduces fake Donald Trump flack 'John Pepperoni' as Drake hosts
Darrell Hammond returned as the wannabe president on “Saturday Night Live” after reports revealed that for decades, Trump posed as fabricated publicists shilling his “tremendous” accomplishments.
“Mr. Trump is the real life inspiration for Iron Man,” said Hammond, a now permanent fixture as Trump on the sketch show. “Who am I? I’m his publicist. Joey Pepperoni.”
The fake flack concocted for SNL’s cold open is comparable to Trump’s infamous pseudonyms John Miller and John Barron.
Darrell Hammond returned as the wannabe president on “Saturday Night Live” after reports revealed that for decades, Trump posed as fabricated publicists shilling his “tremendous” accomplishments.
“Mr. Trump is the real life inspiration for Iron Man,” said Hammond, a now permanent fixture as Trump on the sketch show. “Who am I? I’m his publicist. Joey Pepperoni.”
The fake flack concocted for SNL’s cold open is comparable to Trump’s infamous pseudonyms John Miller and John Barron.
lol
They are ass holes they believe this ignorant shit I just report to remind intelligent minded people what where up against.
Assholes or ignorant they may be. On the other hand, while I try hard to be as open minded as possible, this open-bathroom thing, especially when applied or may be applied to children's restrooms seems to me to be getting far afield.
No argument here..
Americans are buying Chinese-made Trump toilet paper
By Christian Gollayan
June 2, 2016 | 3:00pm
Modal Trigger
Photo: photodesk@splashnews.com
More On:
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Paul Ryan finally says he'll vote for Donald Trump
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Voters don't have confidence in Trump or Hillary
Trump's reading material includes 'Unlikeable: The Problem with Hillary'
Donald Trump is literally on a roll in China.
Though the presumptive GOP nominee has built a platform of anti-Beijing rhetoric and tariffs on the East Asian nation, a Chinese company is cashing in on Trump’s image by printing his face on toilet paper.
Qingdao Wellpaper Industrial Co., based in north China’s Shandong province, said sales of its “Dump with Trump” rolls are on the rise since mid-February.
“At the start, orders were for around 100 rolls a time, but now we’re getting orders for 5,000 rolls,” a saleswoman from the company told China Daily on Tuesday.
Rolls sell for about 50 cents each, and buyers can choose from three prints based on Trump’s facial expressions: smiling Trump, pointing Trump and pouting Trump.
Many of its buyers are based in America, and they include US women’s national soccer team star Sydney Leroux, who posted a photo of it on Instagram in May.
By Christian Gollayan
June 2, 2016 | 3:00pm
Modal Trigger
Photo: photodesk@splashnews.com
More On:
donald trump
Paul Ryan finally says he'll vote for Donald Trump
Trump vows to reopen university after lawsuit is over
Voters don't have confidence in Trump or Hillary
Trump's reading material includes 'Unlikeable: The Problem with Hillary'
Donald Trump is literally on a roll in China.
Though the presumptive GOP nominee has built a platform of anti-Beijing rhetoric and tariffs on the East Asian nation, a Chinese company is cashing in on Trump’s image by printing his face on toilet paper.
Qingdao Wellpaper Industrial Co., based in north China’s Shandong province, said sales of its “Dump with Trump” rolls are on the rise since mid-February.
“At the start, orders were for around 100 rolls a time, but now we’re getting orders for 5,000 rolls,” a saleswoman from the company told China Daily on Tuesday.
Rolls sell for about 50 cents each, and buyers can choose from three prints based on Trump’s facial expressions: smiling Trump, pointing Trump and pouting Trump.
Many of its buyers are based in America, and they include US women’s national soccer team star Sydney Leroux, who posted a photo of it on Instagram in May.
Clinton leads Trump across swing-state map
Clinton has the edge in the states that matter most, according
to POLITICO's inaugural Battleground States polling average.
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in the 11 pivotal states likely to determine the outcome of this year’s presidential election, according to the debut of POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average.
As the 2016 general election begins, Clinton holds a 5-point overall advantage in the POLITICO Battleground States polling average over Trump, 44.8 percent to 39.8 percent. That lead extends to the state level: Clinton has the advantage in eight of the 11 individual swing states.
The debut of the Battleground States polling average sets a baseline for the race to 270 electoral votes, focusing only on the 11 states most likely to determine the outcome in November — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. The basics of the average are straightforward: it’s based on the most recent public polls from each of the 11 states and weighted by each state’s representation in the Electoral College.
At the moment, the POLITICO polling average across the competitive battleground states is only marginally closer than the national polling average across all 50 states: The RealClearPolitics average gives Clinton a 44.1 percent to 38.6 percent advantage.
One reason is that polls are currently sparse in some of the battleground states identified by POLITICO. There hasn’t been a credible public poll of a Clinton-Trump match-up in Nevada, and in three other states, the polling average — which draws on the five most recent polls in each state — goes back to include some surveys conducted last year.
In some cases, those older surveys conflict with newer data — particularly polls conducted since Trump became the presumptive GOP nominee and consolidated much of the Republican vote. None of the polls included in any state are recent enough to capture either Clinton's clinching of the Democratic nomination, nor any impacts of this weekend's mass shooting in Orlando, Fla.
For now, the Battleground States polling average regards all the polls equally. These differences are unlikely to persist as the race unfolds, as an increase in general-election polling will eliminate the older surveys from the averages.
Moreover, many of the polls included here were conducted among registered voters, not those considered most likely to cast ballots in the general election. Many public pollsters argue that voters can’t say accurately whether they will turn out this far before Election Day, and those surveys don’t start screening for likely voters until the final few months of the campaign. Functionally, a switch to likely voters tends to help Republicans, studies show.
Through Tuesday, here is a state-by-state rundown of where race stands in the 11 states that comprise POLITICO’s Battleground States Project:
Colorado (9 electoral votes), Trump +11: Colorado is sparsely polled, despite its position as the tipping-point state in the past two elections: In other words, the state provided Barack Obama with his 270th electoral vote in both 2008 and 2012.
But the only public survey of a Clintoni-Trump ballot in Colorado is a Quinnipiac University survey back in November of last year. That poll showed Trump with a sizable lead over Clinton, 48 percent to 37 percent.
For now, that stands as the only entry for Colorado and its 9 electoral votes.
award 29 electoral votes, is the most important state in the Battleground States polling average — and one of the closest.
Clinton’s slight edge is powered mostly by the oldest poll in the Florida average: a late-April survey from the Associated Industries of Florida, which showed Clinton ahead by 13 points.
The four other surveys in the average show a much more competitive race: Clinton +1, Clinton +1, Clinton +3 and Trump +1.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/battleground-states-clinton-trump-224202#ixzz4BiWctLvK
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Clinton has the edge in the states that matter most, according
to POLITICO's inaugural Battleground States polling average.
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in the 11 pivotal states likely to determine the outcome of this year’s presidential election, according to the debut of POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average.
As the 2016 general election begins, Clinton holds a 5-point overall advantage in the POLITICO Battleground States polling average over Trump, 44.8 percent to 39.8 percent. That lead extends to the state level: Clinton has the advantage in eight of the 11 individual swing states.
The debut of the Battleground States polling average sets a baseline for the race to 270 electoral votes, focusing only on the 11 states most likely to determine the outcome in November — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. The basics of the average are straightforward: it’s based on the most recent public polls from each of the 11 states and weighted by each state’s representation in the Electoral College.
At the moment, the POLITICO polling average across the competitive battleground states is only marginally closer than the national polling average across all 50 states: The RealClearPolitics average gives Clinton a 44.1 percent to 38.6 percent advantage.
One reason is that polls are currently sparse in some of the battleground states identified by POLITICO. There hasn’t been a credible public poll of a Clinton-Trump match-up in Nevada, and in three other states, the polling average — which draws on the five most recent polls in each state — goes back to include some surveys conducted last year.
In some cases, those older surveys conflict with newer data — particularly polls conducted since Trump became the presumptive GOP nominee and consolidated much of the Republican vote. None of the polls included in any state are recent enough to capture either Clinton's clinching of the Democratic nomination, nor any impacts of this weekend's mass shooting in Orlando, Fla.
For now, the Battleground States polling average regards all the polls equally. These differences are unlikely to persist as the race unfolds, as an increase in general-election polling will eliminate the older surveys from the averages.
Moreover, many of the polls included here were conducted among registered voters, not those considered most likely to cast ballots in the general election. Many public pollsters argue that voters can’t say accurately whether they will turn out this far before Election Day, and those surveys don’t start screening for likely voters until the final few months of the campaign. Functionally, a switch to likely voters tends to help Republicans, studies show.
Through Tuesday, here is a state-by-state rundown of where race stands in the 11 states that comprise POLITICO’s Battleground States Project:
Colorado (9 electoral votes), Trump +11: Colorado is sparsely polled, despite its position as the tipping-point state in the past two elections: In other words, the state provided Barack Obama with his 270th electoral vote in both 2008 and 2012.
But the only public survey of a Clintoni-Trump ballot in Colorado is a Quinnipiac University survey back in November of last year. That poll showed Trump with a sizable lead over Clinton, 48 percent to 37 percent.
For now, that stands as the only entry for Colorado and its 9 electoral votes.
award 29 electoral votes, is the most important state in the Battleground States polling average — and one of the closest.
Clinton’s slight edge is powered mostly by the oldest poll in the Florida average: a late-April survey from the Associated Industries of Florida, which showed Clinton ahead by 13 points.
The four other surveys in the average show a much more competitive race: Clinton +1, Clinton +1, Clinton +3 and Trump +1.
Iowa (6 electoral votes), Trump +0.8: The polls are basically a wash in Iowa: Of the five included in the average, one shows a significant Clinton lead, while Trump has the advantage in two others. The two remaining surveys show a tied race.
Interestingly, the three disparate polls all come from the same source: Marist College, which conducted a series of surveys for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal in the run-up to the February caucuses. Polls from August and September gave Trump leads of 5 and 7 points, respectively. But a January NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll showed Clinton leading Trump by 8 points, 48 percent to 40 percent.
There hasn’t been a new poll in Iowa since January, however.
Michigan (16 electoral votes), Clinton +9.2: Clinton’s advantage in Michigan, which has gone Democratic in every election since 1992, is fairly consistent.
But the most recent poll, conducted last month for the Detroit News and WDIV-TV, showed a closer race, with Clinton leading by 4 points.
Nevada (6 electoral votes), no data available: POLITICO went as far back as last July, but there's no public polling in Nevada testing a Clinton-Trump matchup.
Unlike the other small battleground states of Iowa and New Hampshire, Nevada has minimal civic engagement, said longtime Nevada political analyst and reporter Jon Ralston.
Ralston, a POLITICO Magazine contributing editor, added that the “24/7” nature of Las Vegas, the state’s population center, makes it particularly difficult to contact a representative sample.
“The newspapers don't pay for polling, and the universities don't do polling anymore. So only the campaigns do, and they leak when it's advantageous,” Ralston said in an email. “[It’s] been that way for years.”
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes), Clinton +6.8: New Hampshire is example of the polling being influenced by older surveys.
The two most recent polls, surveys last month from MassINC Polling Group/WBUR-FM and Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald, showed the two candidates neck-and-neck. But older polls going back to the immediate aftermath of the first-in-the-nation primary gave Clinton wider advantages.
MassINC pollster Steve Koczela said it’s too early to say whether the newer polls are necessarily more accurately measuring the state of the race in New Hampshire, or whether they are reflective of a short-lived Trump bounce that will level off now that Clinton is her party’s presumptive nominee.
“Timing is at least a factor that you have to look at,” Koczela said. “It was after Trump had locked down his nomination, but it was before Clinton and Sanders had finished their fight” on the Democratic side.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes), Clinton +2.6: All five of the North Carolina polls were conducted recently, but four of the five were from partisan or ideological outlets: two from Democratic automated pollster Public Policy Polling, and two live-caller surveys conducted by a Republican polling firm for the conservative Civitas Institute.
The Civitas polls from April (Clinton +12) and May (Trump +3) diverge noisily, and Clinton’s large lead back in April helps to contribute to her slight advantage in the average.
Ohio (18 electoral votes), Clinton +3: Clinton enjoys a modest advantage here, with four of the five polls, which go back to early March, showing her ahead.
The three most-recent polls point to a slugfest all the way until November. A mid-May online survey from CBS News/YouGov shows Clinton ahead by five points, but a live-interviewer Quinnipiac University poll conducted in late April and early May had Trump up by four points. Another late-April survey, from PPP, showed Clinton ahead by three points.
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Clinton +4: Clinton’s strength in Pennsylvania appears to be entirely a function of one poll: an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey in mid-April that gave the former secretary of state a 15-point lead, 54 percent to 39 percent.
The other four polls, which range from last week back to late March, are Clinton +1, Clinton +1, tie and Clinton +3.
Virginia (13 electoral votes), Clinton +9.4: The five Virginia polls included here come entirely from two in-state academic pollsters: Roanoke College and Christopher Newport University.
While the older surveys provide a large Clinton lead, the most recent poll, a mid-May Roanoke survey, had Clinton and Trump tied.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Clinton +11.6: The polls are substantially more consistent in Wisconsin: Going back to February, Clinton has posted a double-digit lead in each of the five surveys included in the average.
Perhaps most impressively, the most recent poll, on paper, could have favored Trump: It was conducted by the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies in mid-May, during the peak of Trump’s polling bounce. But the poll showed Clinton up by 12 points, 43 percent to 31 percent.
Democrats have won Wisconsin in seven consecutive presidential elections, going back to 1988. There’s little evidence in the data so far that Trump will be able to break that streak.
Interestingly, the three disparate polls all come from the same source: Marist College, which conducted a series of surveys for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal in the run-up to the February caucuses. Polls from August and September gave Trump leads of 5 and 7 points, respectively. But a January NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll showed Clinton leading Trump by 8 points, 48 percent to 40 percent.
There hasn’t been a new poll in Iowa since January, however.
Michigan (16 electoral votes), Clinton +9.2: Clinton’s advantage in Michigan, which has gone Democratic in every election since 1992, is fairly consistent.
But the most recent poll, conducted last month for the Detroit News and WDIV-TV, showed a closer race, with Clinton leading by 4 points.
Nevada (6 electoral votes), no data available: POLITICO went as far back as last July, but there's no public polling in Nevada testing a Clinton-Trump matchup.
Unlike the other small battleground states of Iowa and New Hampshire, Nevada has minimal civic engagement, said longtime Nevada political analyst and reporter Jon Ralston.
Ralston, a POLITICO Magazine contributing editor, added that the “24/7” nature of Las Vegas, the state’s population center, makes it particularly difficult to contact a representative sample.
“The newspapers don't pay for polling, and the universities don't do polling anymore. So only the campaigns do, and they leak when it's advantageous,” Ralston said in an email. “[It’s] been that way for years.”
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes), Clinton +6.8: New Hampshire is example of the polling being influenced by older surveys.
The two most recent polls, surveys last month from MassINC Polling Group/WBUR-FM and Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald, showed the two candidates neck-and-neck. But older polls going back to the immediate aftermath of the first-in-the-nation primary gave Clinton wider advantages.
MassINC pollster Steve Koczela said it’s too early to say whether the newer polls are necessarily more accurately measuring the state of the race in New Hampshire, or whether they are reflective of a short-lived Trump bounce that will level off now that Clinton is her party’s presumptive nominee.
“Timing is at least a factor that you have to look at,” Koczela said. “It was after Trump had locked down his nomination, but it was before Clinton and Sanders had finished their fight” on the Democratic side.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes), Clinton +2.6: All five of the North Carolina polls were conducted recently, but four of the five were from partisan or ideological outlets: two from Democratic automated pollster Public Policy Polling, and two live-caller surveys conducted by a Republican polling firm for the conservative Civitas Institute.
The Civitas polls from April (Clinton +12) and May (Trump +3) diverge noisily, and Clinton’s large lead back in April helps to contribute to her slight advantage in the average.
Ohio (18 electoral votes), Clinton +3: Clinton enjoys a modest advantage here, with four of the five polls, which go back to early March, showing her ahead.
The three most-recent polls point to a slugfest all the way until November. A mid-May online survey from CBS News/YouGov shows Clinton ahead by five points, but a live-interviewer Quinnipiac University poll conducted in late April and early May had Trump up by four points. Another late-April survey, from PPP, showed Clinton ahead by three points.
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Clinton +4: Clinton’s strength in Pennsylvania appears to be entirely a function of one poll: an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey in mid-April that gave the former secretary of state a 15-point lead, 54 percent to 39 percent.
The other four polls, which range from last week back to late March, are Clinton +1, Clinton +1, tie and Clinton +3.
Virginia (13 electoral votes), Clinton +9.4: The five Virginia polls included here come entirely from two in-state academic pollsters: Roanoke College and Christopher Newport University.
While the older surveys provide a large Clinton lead, the most recent poll, a mid-May Roanoke survey, had Clinton and Trump tied.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Clinton +11.6: The polls are substantially more consistent in Wisconsin: Going back to February, Clinton has posted a double-digit lead in each of the five surveys included in the average.
Perhaps most impressively, the most recent poll, on paper, could have favored Trump: It was conducted by the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies in mid-May, during the peak of Trump’s polling bounce. But the poll showed Clinton up by 12 points, 43 percent to 31 percent.
Democrats have won Wisconsin in seven consecutive presidential elections, going back to 1988. There’s little evidence in the data so far that Trump will be able to break that streak.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/battleground-states-clinton-trump-224202#ixzz4BiWctLvK
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June 15, 2016
A new Bloomberg poll has Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton with a 12-point lead over presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.
The national poll shows Clinton leading Trump 49 percent to 37 percent among likely voters in November's general election. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson was the choice for 9 percent of responders; 4 percent said they weren't sure; and 1 percent said they didn't plan to vote.
The percentage of people who said they would never vote for Clinton was 43 percent as compared to 55 percent who said the same thing for Trump.
The news wasn't all bad for the Trump camp, however.
The business mogul-turned-politician edged out Clinton 45 percent to 41 percent when those surveyed were asked which candidate they would have more confidence in if a similar attack to the one in Orlando, Florida took place a year from now under a new administration. Trump is also viewed as stronger among likely voters in combating terrorist threats at home and abroad, beating out Clinton 50 percent to 45 percent.
The poll was conducted June 10-13 with additional questions about terrorism, guns and Muslims added after Sunday's attack by Omar Mateen who had expressed sympathy for Islamic terrorists before killing 49 people at a gay nightclub. It is the worst mass shooting in U.S. history.
Other polls show closer race
While the Bloomberg polls shows a widening gap between Clinton and Trump, other polls show a tighter race. The Real Clear Politics average poll – which factors in Bloomberg, Fox News, Rasmussen Reports, Reuters, Economist/YouGov, IBD/TIPP and Quinnipiac has Clinton with a 5.5 point lead. Fox's poll has the former Secretary of State with smallest lead at just under 3 points.
RCP's electoral map shows Clinton with 204 electoral college votes to Trump's 164 with 170 electoral votes up for grabs with the biggest battle ground states being Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
RCP's electoral map shows Clinton with 204 electoral college votes to Trump's 164 with 170 electoral votes up for grabs with the biggest battle ground states being Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/06/donald_trump_vs_hillary_clinto.html#incart_river_home_pop
A new Bloomberg poll has Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton with a 12-point lead over presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.
The national poll shows Clinton leading Trump 49 percent to 37 percent among likely voters in November's general election. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson was the choice for 9 percent of responders; 4 percent said they weren't sure; and 1 percent said they didn't plan to vote.
The percentage of people who said they would never vote for Clinton was 43 percent as compared to 55 percent who said the same thing for Trump.
The news wasn't all bad for the Trump camp, however.
The business mogul-turned-politician edged out Clinton 45 percent to 41 percent when those surveyed were asked which candidate they would have more confidence in if a similar attack to the one in Orlando, Florida took place a year from now under a new administration. Trump is also viewed as stronger among likely voters in combating terrorist threats at home and abroad, beating out Clinton 50 percent to 45 percent.
The poll was conducted June 10-13 with additional questions about terrorism, guns and Muslims added after Sunday's attack by Omar Mateen who had expressed sympathy for Islamic terrorists before killing 49 people at a gay nightclub. It is the worst mass shooting in U.S. history.
Other polls show closer race
While the Bloomberg polls shows a widening gap between Clinton and Trump, other polls show a tighter race. The Real Clear Politics average poll – which factors in Bloomberg, Fox News, Rasmussen Reports, Reuters, Economist/YouGov, IBD/TIPP and Quinnipiac has Clinton with a 5.5 point lead. Fox's poll has the former Secretary of State with smallest lead at just under 3 points.
RCP's electoral map shows Clinton with 204 electoral college votes to Trump's 164 with 170 electoral votes up for grabs with the biggest battle ground states being Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
RCP's electoral map shows Clinton with 204 electoral college votes to Trump's 164 with 170 electoral votes up for grabs with the biggest battle ground states being Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/06/donald_trump_vs_hillary_clinto.html#incart_river_home_pop
June 22, 2016:
Election 2016 Clinton Trump RCP Average
Battleground States - Clinton Trump RCP Average
SOURCE: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
.
Election 2016 Clinton Trump RCP Average
RCP Poll Average
Clinton: 45.0
Trump: 39.2
Clinton +5.8
3-Way (w/Johnson)
Clinton: 40.9
Trump: 35.5
Clinton +5.4
RCP Electoral Map
Clinton: 211
Trump: 164
Clinton: 45.0
Trump: 39.2
Clinton +5.8
3-Way (w/Johnson)
Clinton: 40.9
Trump: 35.5
Clinton +5.4
RCP Electoral Map
Clinton: 211
Trump: 164
Battleground States - Clinton Trump RCP Average
Pennsylvania
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 42.5
Clinton +0.5
Florida
Clinton: 45.0
Trump: 42.0
Clinton +3.0
Ohio
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 40.3
Clinton +2.7
Virginia
Clinton: 43.8
Trump: 39.8
Clinton +4.0
North Carolina
Clinton: 42.8
Trump: 43.8
Trump +1.0
Georgia
Clinton: 40.8
Trump: 45.0
Trump +4.2
New Hampshire
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 36.5
Clinton +6.5
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 42.5
Clinton +0.5
Florida
Clinton: 45.0
Trump: 42.0
Clinton +3.0
Ohio
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 40.3
Clinton +2.7
Virginia
Clinton: 43.8
Trump: 39.8
Clinton +4.0
North Carolina
Clinton: 42.8
Trump: 43.8
Trump +1.0
Georgia
Clinton: 40.8
Trump: 45.0
Trump +4.2
New Hampshire
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 36.5
Clinton +6.5
.
Trump's numbers: Not a pretty picture
Any way you look at it, the presumptive Republican nominee has ground to make up.
p o l i t i c o
By Steven Shepard
06/26/16
Donald Trump said last week he hasn’t really started campaigning in the general election. It shows in his poll numbers.
After weeks of blistering news coverage, the latest round of national and battleground-state polling underscores the hole in which Trump now finds himself: trailing Hillary Clinton by a significant margin with fewer than 100 days remaining until early voting begins in the key swing states of Ohio and Iowa.
Two new, major national polls released Sunday morning — surveys from ABC News/Washington Post and NBC News/Wall Street Journal — differ to some degree, but both are consistent with the broader trend: Clinton holds a reliable lead over Trump, an advantage that occasionally swells to double digits.
Trump now trails Clinton by 6.3 points in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, and by 6.6 points in the HuffPost Pollster model. In the key states in the Electoral College, POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average shows Clinton ahead by 4.3 points. And perhaps even more important, Trump is lagging behind on a number of other key indicators, including candidate favorability.
At this point four years ago, Mitt Romney was essentially tied with President Barack Obama, trailing by just four-tenths of a percentage point. With the exception of 1988, no candidate in modern presidential history who trailed by this much in June has come back to win.
Trump’s deficit comes after he closed the gap with Clinton last month, when he pulled even after eliminating Ted Cruz, John Kasich and his other GOP rivals for the nomination. But his standing now is worse than that of the four previous Republican nominees in June of the election year.
Already, Trump’s slide in the polls is having a practical impact on his campaign, contributing to declining confidence in the first-time candidate’s ability to remain competitive with Clinton — and spawning a fledgling movement to unbind delegates who could possibly deny Trump the Republican nomination at next month’s national party convention.
Clinton’s now-consistent lead over the past month raises an important question for Republicans: Is the cash-strapped Trump campaign, which is allowing tens of millions of dollars of attack ads from Clinton and her allies to go unanswered, wise to preserve its resources for the post-conventions phase of the campaign? Or do the emerging Clinton advantage and sustained attacks represent a locking-in of voters against Trump?
Sunday's public surveys provided further confirmation of that Clinton lead. Nationally, an ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Clinton leading Trump by 12 points, 51 percent to 39 percent, equaling her largest lead in any telephone survey since both candidates became their parties' presumptive nominees.
Clinton's lead in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out Sunday is smaller, 5 points, but Clinton has now led the past 11 polls conducted by live telephone interviewers.
That included surveys out last week, including a Monmouth University poll that showed Clinton leading Trump by 7 points, and a CNN/ORC International poll that gave her a 5-point advantage. In the battleground states, Quinnipiac University polls released last week showed Clinton opening up a lead in Florida, erasing a slight Trump advantage in Ohio and the race remaining neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania.
Trump appears unconcerned by the movement away from him over the past month, telling The New York Times last week, “I haven’t started yet.” But Clinton has: Starting late last week, the presumptive Democratic nominee launched a six-week television ad blitz that includes more than $20 million spread out over eight battleground states. And that's backstopped by the pro-Clinton super PAC, Priorities USA, which is spending in those same eight states, with plans to expand into a ninth state, Pennsylvania, after the Independence Day holiday.
The divergent strategies are reminiscent of four years ago, when President Barack Obama and his allies spent the late spring and early summer hammering GOP nominee Mitt Romney — with an inadequate answer from Romney’s forces.
Those attacks had little impact on the horse race. Romney was able to mount some response, and polls showed him tied with Obama this time four years ago. But the messages conveyed in those attacks did drive down Romney’s favorable ratings and set a narrative that would dog the former Massachusetts governor for the rest of the campaign, according to Neil Newhouse, Romney’s pollster.
“They didn’t move the ballot [test], but they moved our image,” Newhouse said. “The ballot wasn’t moving, but other stuff was, which made it harder to move the ballot later on. It began to frame that election early on, and we couldn’t do a darn thing about it.”
Many of those other measures point to trouble for Trump. In the Monmouth poll, Trump’s favorable rating is just 28 percent, with 57 percent having no opinion of him. Clinton’s was better, though still easily net-negative: 36 percent favorable versus 52 percent unfavorable.
The CNN/ORC poll showed a smaller gap in their image ratings — Trump’s were negative-19 among registered voters, compared to Clinton’s negative-15 — and a 55-percent majority of voters said they expect Clinton to win the general election this fall.
Still, there were some positive numbers for Trump in the CNN/ORC poll. Respondents said Trump would better handle a number of key issues, like the economy and terrorism. (Clinton was rated higher on foreign policy and immigration.)
“Does Hillary have a small but significant lead? Yeah, she probably does,” said Newhouse. “What I find really interesting in the surveys, [Trump] wins on strength, he wins on protecting us, he wins on the economy, and most importantly, he wins on change.”
But the balance of indicators, starting with the ballot test, point to a Trump deficit at this point of the campaign. That puts the New York real-estate mogul behind the pace of the past four GOP nominees. In addition to Romney tying Obama at this stage of the campaign, June was when John McCain began to fall behind Obama four years prior. George W. Bush and John Kerry traded the lead during June 2004, and most polls in June 2000 presaged the close race between Bush and then-Vice President Al Gore.
There are some countervailing signs in the data about the extent to which the nature of the race could change. Newhouse said the fact both Clinton and Trump are disliked by majorities of voters suggests the ballot test could bounce around over the next four-and-a-half months. “I think we expect to see a lot of movement,” he said.
But Patrick Murray, the Monmouth University pollster, suggested the widespread — and, in many cases, intense — disapproval of both likely nominees points to a less-elastic electorate.
“I think that probably close to 9-in-10 voters are locked in,” Murray said. “That’s because their feelings about either or both of these candidates are so incredibly strong, or they’re going to move there.”
Clinton surges to 12-point lead in WaPo poll
By Kristen East
And only one candidate is investing real resources to move and reinforce those numbers.
“I think Clinton’s lead is actually fundamentally larger than what the polls show now because of where the candidates stand on their personal attributes,” Murray said, pointing to Clinton’s less-woeful favorability ratings.
Political science research suggests, intuitively, that polls become more predictive closer to the election. But that's particularly true over the course of the summer months, especially following the parties' national conventions.
Columbia University professor Bob Erikson, who co-authored a book that tracked the movement in polls over the timelines of presidential elections going back to 1952, said Trump is behind at this stage of the campaign, "but the gap is not that great, and it could be overcome."
"Both candidates are very well-known and not so well-liked," Erikson added, comparing it to the 1980 campaign, "when Reagan was seen as something of a right-wing extremist, and Carter wasn’t too popular."
In that campaign, June was the month when Ronald Reagan surpassed Jimmy Carter in the polls, though then-Rep. John Anderson (R-Ill.) was taking more than 20 percent of the vote as an independent candidate. Anderson ultimately drew only 6.6 percent.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/trumps-numbers-not-a-pretty-picture-224684#ixzz4CkGYg0MF
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Any way you look at it, the presumptive Republican nominee has ground to make up.
p o l i t i c o
By Steven Shepard
06/26/16
Donald Trump said last week he hasn’t really started campaigning in the general election. It shows in his poll numbers.
After weeks of blistering news coverage, the latest round of national and battleground-state polling underscores the hole in which Trump now finds himself: trailing Hillary Clinton by a significant margin with fewer than 100 days remaining until early voting begins in the key swing states of Ohio and Iowa.
Two new, major national polls released Sunday morning — surveys from ABC News/Washington Post and NBC News/Wall Street Journal — differ to some degree, but both are consistent with the broader trend: Clinton holds a reliable lead over Trump, an advantage that occasionally swells to double digits.
Trump now trails Clinton by 6.3 points in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, and by 6.6 points in the HuffPost Pollster model. In the key states in the Electoral College, POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average shows Clinton ahead by 4.3 points. And perhaps even more important, Trump is lagging behind on a number of other key indicators, including candidate favorability.
At this point four years ago, Mitt Romney was essentially tied with President Barack Obama, trailing by just four-tenths of a percentage point. With the exception of 1988, no candidate in modern presidential history who trailed by this much in June has come back to win.
Trump’s deficit comes after he closed the gap with Clinton last month, when he pulled even after eliminating Ted Cruz, John Kasich and his other GOP rivals for the nomination. But his standing now is worse than that of the four previous Republican nominees in June of the election year.
Already, Trump’s slide in the polls is having a practical impact on his campaign, contributing to declining confidence in the first-time candidate’s ability to remain competitive with Clinton — and spawning a fledgling movement to unbind delegates who could possibly deny Trump the Republican nomination at next month’s national party convention.
Clinton’s now-consistent lead over the past month raises an important question for Republicans: Is the cash-strapped Trump campaign, which is allowing tens of millions of dollars of attack ads from Clinton and her allies to go unanswered, wise to preserve its resources for the post-conventions phase of the campaign? Or do the emerging Clinton advantage and sustained attacks represent a locking-in of voters against Trump?
Sunday's public surveys provided further confirmation of that Clinton lead. Nationally, an ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Clinton leading Trump by 12 points, 51 percent to 39 percent, equaling her largest lead in any telephone survey since both candidates became their parties' presumptive nominees.
Clinton's lead in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out Sunday is smaller, 5 points, but Clinton has now led the past 11 polls conducted by live telephone interviewers.
That included surveys out last week, including a Monmouth University poll that showed Clinton leading Trump by 7 points, and a CNN/ORC International poll that gave her a 5-point advantage. In the battleground states, Quinnipiac University polls released last week showed Clinton opening up a lead in Florida, erasing a slight Trump advantage in Ohio and the race remaining neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania.
Trump appears unconcerned by the movement away from him over the past month, telling The New York Times last week, “I haven’t started yet.” But Clinton has: Starting late last week, the presumptive Democratic nominee launched a six-week television ad blitz that includes more than $20 million spread out over eight battleground states. And that's backstopped by the pro-Clinton super PAC, Priorities USA, which is spending in those same eight states, with plans to expand into a ninth state, Pennsylvania, after the Independence Day holiday.
The divergent strategies are reminiscent of four years ago, when President Barack Obama and his allies spent the late spring and early summer hammering GOP nominee Mitt Romney — with an inadequate answer from Romney’s forces.
Those attacks had little impact on the horse race. Romney was able to mount some response, and polls showed him tied with Obama this time four years ago. But the messages conveyed in those attacks did drive down Romney’s favorable ratings and set a narrative that would dog the former Massachusetts governor for the rest of the campaign, according to Neil Newhouse, Romney’s pollster.
“They didn’t move the ballot [test], but they moved our image,” Newhouse said. “The ballot wasn’t moving, but other stuff was, which made it harder to move the ballot later on. It began to frame that election early on, and we couldn’t do a darn thing about it.”
Many of those other measures point to trouble for Trump. In the Monmouth poll, Trump’s favorable rating is just 28 percent, with 57 percent having no opinion of him. Clinton’s was better, though still easily net-negative: 36 percent favorable versus 52 percent unfavorable.
The CNN/ORC poll showed a smaller gap in their image ratings — Trump’s were negative-19 among registered voters, compared to Clinton’s negative-15 — and a 55-percent majority of voters said they expect Clinton to win the general election this fall.
Still, there were some positive numbers for Trump in the CNN/ORC poll. Respondents said Trump would better handle a number of key issues, like the economy and terrorism. (Clinton was rated higher on foreign policy and immigration.)
“Does Hillary have a small but significant lead? Yeah, she probably does,” said Newhouse. “What I find really interesting in the surveys, [Trump] wins on strength, he wins on protecting us, he wins on the economy, and most importantly, he wins on change.”
But the balance of indicators, starting with the ballot test, point to a Trump deficit at this point of the campaign. That puts the New York real-estate mogul behind the pace of the past four GOP nominees. In addition to Romney tying Obama at this stage of the campaign, June was when John McCain began to fall behind Obama four years prior. George W. Bush and John Kerry traded the lead during June 2004, and most polls in June 2000 presaged the close race between Bush and then-Vice President Al Gore.
There are some countervailing signs in the data about the extent to which the nature of the race could change. Newhouse said the fact both Clinton and Trump are disliked by majorities of voters suggests the ballot test could bounce around over the next four-and-a-half months. “I think we expect to see a lot of movement,” he said.
But Patrick Murray, the Monmouth University pollster, suggested the widespread — and, in many cases, intense — disapproval of both likely nominees points to a less-elastic electorate.
“I think that probably close to 9-in-10 voters are locked in,” Murray said. “That’s because their feelings about either or both of these candidates are so incredibly strong, or they’re going to move there.”
Clinton surges to 12-point lead in WaPo poll
By Kristen East
And only one candidate is investing real resources to move and reinforce those numbers.
“I think Clinton’s lead is actually fundamentally larger than what the polls show now because of where the candidates stand on their personal attributes,” Murray said, pointing to Clinton’s less-woeful favorability ratings.
Political science research suggests, intuitively, that polls become more predictive closer to the election. But that's particularly true over the course of the summer months, especially following the parties' national conventions.
Columbia University professor Bob Erikson, who co-authored a book that tracked the movement in polls over the timelines of presidential elections going back to 1952, said Trump is behind at this stage of the campaign, "but the gap is not that great, and it could be overcome."
"Both candidates are very well-known and not so well-liked," Erikson added, comparing it to the 1980 campaign, "when Reagan was seen as something of a right-wing extremist, and Carter wasn’t too popular."
In that campaign, June was the month when Ronald Reagan surpassed Jimmy Carter in the polls, though then-Rep. John Anderson (R-Ill.) was taking more than 20 percent of the vote as an independent candidate. Anderson ultimately drew only 6.6 percent.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/trumps-numbers-not-a-pretty-picture-224684#ixzz4CkGYg0MF
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Election 2016 Clinton Trump RCP Average
Sunday, June 26, 2016
RCP Poll Average
Clinton: 46.1
Trump: 39.4
Clinton +6.7
4-Way RCP Average
Clinton: 42.3
Trump: 36.7
Clinton +5.6
RCP Electoral Map
Clinton: 211
Trump: 164
Battlegrounds Clinton Trump RCP Average
Pennsylvania
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 42.5
Clinton +0.5
Florida
Clinton: 45.2
Trump: 41.8
Clinton +3.4
Ohio
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 40.3
Clinton +2.7
Virginia
Clinton: 43.8
Trump: 39.8
Clinton +4.0
North Carolina
Clinton: 42.7
Trump: 44.0
Trump +1.3
Georgia
Clinton: 40.8
Trump: 45.0
Trump +4.2
New Hampshire
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 36.5
Clinton +6.5
SOURCE: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
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Sunday, June 26, 2016
RCP Poll Average
Clinton: 46.1
Trump: 39.4
Clinton +6.7
4-Way RCP Average
Clinton: 42.3
Trump: 36.7
Clinton +5.6
RCP Electoral Map
Clinton: 211
Trump: 164
Battlegrounds Clinton Trump RCP Average
Pennsylvania
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 42.5
Clinton +0.5
Florida
Clinton: 45.2
Trump: 41.8
Clinton +3.4
Ohio
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 40.3
Clinton +2.7
Virginia
Clinton: 43.8
Trump: 39.8
Clinton +4.0
North Carolina
Clinton: 42.7
Trump: 44.0
Trump +1.3
Georgia
Clinton: 40.8
Trump: 45.0
Trump +4.2
New Hampshire
Clinton: 43.0
Trump: 36.5
Clinton +6.5
SOURCE: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
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Clinton’s lead over Trump shrinks dramatically
It’s the first time she’s dropped below 50 percent support
Clinton up 3 points against only Trump, by 5 in 4-way contest
The email controversy is taking a toll on Clinton
CLEVELAND
Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has withered to 3 percentage points, signaling their battle for the White House has become too close to call heading into the two major-party national conventions, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.
Clinton, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, now leads Trump by 42 to 39 percent in a head-to-head matchup. While Republicans and Democrats are solidly behind their candidates, independents are divided, 36 percent for Clinton, 33 percent for Trump – and 23 percent undecided.
Clinton does somewhat better in a four-way race, topping Trump 40 to 35 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson has 10 percent support, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein has 5 percent.
Either way, Clinton’s support has slipped noticeably, particularly in the one-on-one matchup with Trump. It was the first time her support had dropped below 50 percent in polls going back a year.
“The good news for Hillary Clinton is that despite a very rough week, she still has a narrow edge,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in New York, which conducted the survey. “The bad news is these issues don’t seem to be going away.”
The email furor was a favorite reason many voters gave for rejecting Clinton. “Hillary has too many scandals going on,” said Ron Pool, 43, an independent voter from San
Her numbers plunged as the controversy over her private email server while secretary of state dominated political news. On July 5, the poll’s first day, FBI Director James Comey recommended that Clinton not be charged but termed her aides and her “extremely careless’’ in their handling of classified material. Two days later, Comey testified before a House of Representatives committee.
The poll found that Clinton is winning the support of 57 percent of voters who backed Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, her chief rival, who endorsed her Tuesday. Trump wins support from 60 percent of the Republicans who had backed other candidates.
That suggests “these conventions are really important,” Miringoff said. About one-fourth of Sanders voters or non-Trump Republican voters said they were now behind Stein or Johnson.
The poll underscored the high stakes for voters. Nearly 3 in 4 said it did make a difference who was elected.
It punctuated the two different Americas lining up on each side.
Clinton leads by 81-6 percent among African-Americans,
52-26 among Latinos, 51-33 among women,
50-34 among college graduates,
47-31 among those younger than 30 and
45-38 among those who make less than $45,000 a year.
52-26 among Latinos, 51-33 among women,
50-34 among college graduates,
47-31 among those younger than 30 and
45-38 among those who make less than $45,000 a year.
Trump leads by 49-34 percent among whites,
47-33 among men, 44-39 among non-college graduates and
46-40 among those 60 and older.
47-33 among men, 44-39 among non-college graduates and
46-40 among those 60 and older.
Make no mistake, though. Voters are not solely being drawn to these candidates. They are often driven as much by their dislike of the opposition.
Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article89191922.html#storylink=cpy
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