<font size="6"><center>U.S.: Rita Targets Texas</font size></center>
STRATFOR
Global Intelligence Brief
September 22, 2005
Summary
Current projections indicate Hurricane Rita will slam into the Texas coast in the vicinity of Houston on the morning of Sept. 24. Even if Rita hits Texas as hard as Katrina struck Louisiana, its effects will not be as deeply felt. That does not, however, mean the storm's damage will be inconsequential.
Analysis
U.S. authorities have upgraded Hurricane Rita's rating to a Category 4 storm with sustained winds in excess of 135 miles per hour. With more than two days remaining before its projected landfall in which to draw strength from the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, Rita will likely become a full Category 5 storm. But even in the worst-case scenario, the potential for damage to the Texas coast -- while extreme -- cannot compare to what Katrina has done.
At first glance, this seems a ludicrous assertion.
The Houston metropolitan region has in excess of 3 million people, in addition to the dozens of other cities in the region, versus isolated New Orleans' population of 1.4 million.
The Texas coast is of comparable importance to the U.S. economy to New Orleans. Though New Orleans sits atop the terminus of the trade route that services the entire region between the Rockies and the Appalachians, the Texas coast plays a similar role for the country's road and rail networks. And those ports have recently become even more important: Houston and Galveston, for example, are handling much of the traffic that used to rely on the ports of southern Louisiana.
And do not forget refineries. While refineries in the Katrina zone accounted for some 10 percent of U.S. throughput -- some 900,000 barrels per day remain offline -- the potential Rita zone holds about 26 percent of U.S. throughput. If a sizable proportion of the Texas refineries are damaged, the United States could face widespread disruptions in its energy supply chain (even before any disruptions to offshore production are taken into account).
The danger to the U.S. economy is both real and robust, but Houston is not the Big Easy. Not by a long shot. The Texas coast has five critical features New Orleans lacked.
1) Warning: Katrina gave New Orleans less than 36 hours to prepare. Texans knew Rita was coming at them for four to five days before landfall.
2) Resources: While Louisiana is one of the poorest states in the Union, Texas is one of the richest. Austin will undoubtedly call on federal authorities for assistance, but unlike Louisiana, it will be perfectly capable of beginning relief -- and more important, preparation -- efforts itself.
3) Influence: Not only is Gov. Rick Perry a Republican, but he was U.S. President George W. Bush's lieutenant governor when the current president was governor of Texas. No one doubts Perry's calls will be answered by the highest authority in the country -- immediately.
4) Competence: Though few would claim the government of Texas counts among the most transparent in the Western world, a similar number refuse to recognize that the Louisiana government is among the most corrupt. Bear in mind that Texan disaster relief was among the first to substantially impact the lives of those affected by Katrina. This time, Texans will be operating on their home turf. To this end, Perry began withdrawing the Texas National Guard units that contributed to Katrina relief efforts two days ago.
5) Geography: Geography severely pinches access to and from New Orleans. If one travels inland from New Orleans, one must first cross a series of swamps and unpopulated forest before hitting Baton Rouge. Such complications are not present in Texas, which is most certainly a place of wide-open spaces. The entire Texas coast sports a series of barrier islands that will guard the cities behind them from the bulk of Rita's fury (though this is cold comfort to cities built on the barrier islands themselves, such as Galveston). And finally, unlike New Orleans, every city on the Texas coast is above sea level. Even if the damage is severe, the cities still will be physically habitable and not chronically flooded.
New Orleans itself still has plenty of reason to worry about Rita. Even though current projections place the city well outside Rita's path, New Orleans will still be lashed by high winds and rain. In light of this, bear in mind three things. First, that the levees did not give way until after Katrina had passed. Second, that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says that the levees, while now patched, are not secure enough to handle any more than a normal tidal surge.
And third, after completing an initial analysis, Louisiana State University's Hurricane Center is saying the storm surges the levees faced from Katrina were smaller than authorities have suggested. The center estimates that poor design, faulty construction or a combination of the two ultimately undid New Orleans' flood-protection system. The center further believes Katrina's storm surges never actually topped the levees, indicating they could have simply been severely damaged by high winds and rain -- like they could receive courtesy of Rita.
The damage to the Texas coast still will be severe -- major hurricanes are, after all, major hurricanes -- but a mix of competence, politics and above all, geography should blunt the overall damage and drastically shorten the recovery time. Nevertheless, Rita still seems posed to leave damage in the billions of dollars and higher energy prices for everyone in her wake.
STRATFOR
Global Intelligence Brief
September 22, 2005
Summary
Current projections indicate Hurricane Rita will slam into the Texas coast in the vicinity of Houston on the morning of Sept. 24. Even if Rita hits Texas as hard as Katrina struck Louisiana, its effects will not be as deeply felt. That does not, however, mean the storm's damage will be inconsequential.
Analysis
U.S. authorities have upgraded Hurricane Rita's rating to a Category 4 storm with sustained winds in excess of 135 miles per hour. With more than two days remaining before its projected landfall in which to draw strength from the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, Rita will likely become a full Category 5 storm. But even in the worst-case scenario, the potential for damage to the Texas coast -- while extreme -- cannot compare to what Katrina has done.
At first glance, this seems a ludicrous assertion.
The Houston metropolitan region has in excess of 3 million people, in addition to the dozens of other cities in the region, versus isolated New Orleans' population of 1.4 million.
The Texas coast is of comparable importance to the U.S. economy to New Orleans. Though New Orleans sits atop the terminus of the trade route that services the entire region between the Rockies and the Appalachians, the Texas coast plays a similar role for the country's road and rail networks. And those ports have recently become even more important: Houston and Galveston, for example, are handling much of the traffic that used to rely on the ports of southern Louisiana.
And do not forget refineries. While refineries in the Katrina zone accounted for some 10 percent of U.S. throughput -- some 900,000 barrels per day remain offline -- the potential Rita zone holds about 26 percent of U.S. throughput. If a sizable proportion of the Texas refineries are damaged, the United States could face widespread disruptions in its energy supply chain (even before any disruptions to offshore production are taken into account).
The danger to the U.S. economy is both real and robust, but Houston is not the Big Easy. Not by a long shot. The Texas coast has five critical features New Orleans lacked.
1) Warning: Katrina gave New Orleans less than 36 hours to prepare. Texans knew Rita was coming at them for four to five days before landfall.
2) Resources: While Louisiana is one of the poorest states in the Union, Texas is one of the richest. Austin will undoubtedly call on federal authorities for assistance, but unlike Louisiana, it will be perfectly capable of beginning relief -- and more important, preparation -- efforts itself.
3) Influence: Not only is Gov. Rick Perry a Republican, but he was U.S. President George W. Bush's lieutenant governor when the current president was governor of Texas. No one doubts Perry's calls will be answered by the highest authority in the country -- immediately.
4) Competence: Though few would claim the government of Texas counts among the most transparent in the Western world, a similar number refuse to recognize that the Louisiana government is among the most corrupt. Bear in mind that Texan disaster relief was among the first to substantially impact the lives of those affected by Katrina. This time, Texans will be operating on their home turf. To this end, Perry began withdrawing the Texas National Guard units that contributed to Katrina relief efforts two days ago.
5) Geography: Geography severely pinches access to and from New Orleans. If one travels inland from New Orleans, one must first cross a series of swamps and unpopulated forest before hitting Baton Rouge. Such complications are not present in Texas, which is most certainly a place of wide-open spaces. The entire Texas coast sports a series of barrier islands that will guard the cities behind them from the bulk of Rita's fury (though this is cold comfort to cities built on the barrier islands themselves, such as Galveston). And finally, unlike New Orleans, every city on the Texas coast is above sea level. Even if the damage is severe, the cities still will be physically habitable and not chronically flooded.
New Orleans itself still has plenty of reason to worry about Rita. Even though current projections place the city well outside Rita's path, New Orleans will still be lashed by high winds and rain. In light of this, bear in mind three things. First, that the levees did not give way until after Katrina had passed. Second, that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says that the levees, while now patched, are not secure enough to handle any more than a normal tidal surge.
And third, after completing an initial analysis, Louisiana State University's Hurricane Center is saying the storm surges the levees faced from Katrina were smaller than authorities have suggested. The center estimates that poor design, faulty construction or a combination of the two ultimately undid New Orleans' flood-protection system. The center further believes Katrina's storm surges never actually topped the levees, indicating they could have simply been severely damaged by high winds and rain -- like they could receive courtesy of Rita.
The damage to the Texas coast still will be severe -- major hurricanes are, after all, major hurricanes -- but a mix of competence, politics and above all, geography should blunt the overall damage and drastically shorten the recovery time. Nevertheless, Rita still seems posed to leave damage in the billions of dollars and higher energy prices for everyone in her wake.
