AAPL is unstoppable....
I hate this!
I hate this!
Official Stocks to watch in 2012............. ongoing
- Thread starter water
- Start date
Starbucks: SBUX
Salesforce: CRM
Chipotle Mexican Grill: CMG
Rackspace: RAX
crm...hmmmm
I think apple should have made an aquisition.
Buy google, buy japan, buy a competitor.....buy canada.
id have a shopping cart and go on a shopping spree. Id buy twitter, and facebook and verizon nd still have pocket change to buy the presidency. Ill be damned if I let romney, santoscum or gingroach win this year.
Id also buy the sport of soccer.
Buy google, buy japan, buy a competitor.....buy canada.
id have a shopping cart and go on a shopping spree. Id buy twitter, and facebook and verizon nd still have pocket change to buy the presidency. Ill be damned if I let romney, santoscum or gingroach win this year.
Id also buy the sport of soccer.
Props Amylin was up 55% today based on news of them potentially being acquired by another company. Were you already familiar with the pharmaceutical industry? Or did you do your own independent research? If so what sources do you use in research?
Im still learning my way around with options but so far
Sbux 100%
Mrk 100%
Hd -flat so far
Apple 40% and flat and -50% on the weeklys. I forever will stay away from weeklys.
Qcom 200%
Aria so far negative, I think I bought april 17 call at .50 or .55 and its at .25 now. I was expecting big movement on fda news and got burned.
Ive learned a few lessons:
-stay away from low volume options
-stay away from options where underlying stock has little movement and or low volatility
I have to admit, I need some kind of working strategy to get into my plays, but right now trying to see if buying on the dips will work on stocks like apple, goog yur
Thank god its a bull market, I pray I dont lose my gains when we get into a full blown beasty bear market
Sbux 100%
Mrk 100%
Hd -flat so far
Apple 40% and flat and -50% on the weeklys. I forever will stay away from weeklys.
Qcom 200%
Aria so far negative, I think I bought april 17 call at .50 or .55 and its at .25 now. I was expecting big movement on fda news and got burned.
Ive learned a few lessons:
-stay away from low volume options
-stay away from options where underlying stock has little movement and or low volatility
I have to admit, I need some kind of working strategy to get into my plays, but right now trying to see if buying on the dips will work on stocks like apple, goog yur
Thank god its a bull market, I pray I dont lose my gains when we get into a full blown beasty bear market
FWIW,
Be on the lookout for Washington Mutual Holdings Inc (WMIH). They just started trading again post bankruptcy. Right now the company is valued at 125M but have Billions of dollars in NOL that they can use over the next two years to acquire smaller companies to build their capital. A lot of upside to this new company
I'm just passing the word along but its still up to you to do your own research before you risk your own money.
Be on the lookout for Washington Mutual Holdings Inc (WMIH). They just started trading again post bankruptcy. Right now the company is valued at 125M but have Billions of dollars in NOL that they can use over the next two years to acquire smaller companies to build their capital. A lot of upside to this new company
I'm just passing the word along but its still up to you to do your own research before you risk your own money.
FWIW,
Be on the lookout for Washington Mutual Holdings Inc (WMIH). They just started trading again post bankruptcy. Right now the company is valued at 125M but have Billions of dollars in NOL that they can use over the next two years to acquire smaller companies to build their capital. A lot of upside to this new company
I'm just passing the word along but its still up to you to do your own research before you risk your own money.
see....that's what im talking about.
thank you for the information, ive been waiting for them to emerg.
what exchange are they trading on?
see....that's what im talking about.
thank you for the information, ive been waiting for them to emerg.
what exchange are they trading on?
They're initially on the OTC. Hopefully they'll graduate from that and start trading on the NASDAQ in a few months. I think the NYSE is out of the question...for now.
I know there are some strict post bankruptcy rules they're confined to at least up to the first 180 days. I'm looking to see what the new BOD's plans are as far as expanding the company. I know they can't be bought or merged with a bigger company within the first two years or they'll be at risk of losing their NOLs. I'm just anxious to see where the BOD is planning to do with this new business.
Don't sleep on NXP Semiconductors NXPI
They were at $14 and some change back in December. Today they are at 26.61
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nxpi&ql=1
They were at $14 and some change back in December. Today they are at 26.61
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nxpi&ql=1
good info
Apple is rolling now.
First target is around that 548 level. and could easily go back to 441 gap around the first of the year
You have been warned.
Follow @maximusanalysis on twitter
He does daily videos that are spot on.
He does daily videos that are spot on.
you should look at onvo. its been performing really well but i will say i doubt it will last long.
tngn just did a reverse spilt but it could be a nice play if you catch it. im just waiting to see where it holds before adding and hoping it drops into the 2-3 range.
nviv is waiting to get fda approval to start ct. if this happens people seem to think the share price will increase.
outside of those bios 3d ddd has also been doing well. when i first started watching it was at 13 and now its between 27 -31 any given day. 3d may also be the reason for onvo performing well. both are 3d printing companies except onvo is attempting to print organs. i assume people are buying it hoping it well perform like 3d and stratasys ssys (ssys was at 17 when i started watching now its at 46 its high was around 54).
tengion tngn is also trying to create organs while invivo nviv is working on spinal cord treatment .
a real long shot is actc.at some point they are going to do a 1:80 rs but if they can do half of what they are trying it maybe worth the wait . right now its 8 to 7 cents a share. i dont recommend buying but just keep an eye on it.
nby novabay maybe worth keeping an eye on as well. they have one product approved and others in phase 2
for the record im new at trading so as i said dont buy anything just watch and in the mean time do your own research if your interest in those picks. ive noticed fucking with bios can have you taking big hits or not getting your true value because of reverse splits
Last edited:
Hot Stock Tip:
Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARNA)
FDA approval for obesity drug on the 27th. I got in at 2.43 and now it is at 10:30. Once the approval it is projected to hit the 20s.
VIVUS Inc. (VVUS)
Another obesity drug set for approval on July 17th. I'm in at 23.39 and now it is at 27.10. After approval projected to go over 30 with ease. They were already approved for an ED drug.
Both have passed the FDA panal advisory committee. ARNA 18-4 and VVUS 20-2.
Well worth a look now.
Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARNA)
FDA approval for obesity drug on the 27th. I got in at 2.43 and now it is at 10:30. Once the approval it is projected to hit the 20s.
VIVUS Inc. (VVUS)
Another obesity drug set for approval on July 17th. I'm in at 23.39 and now it is at 27.10. After approval projected to go over 30 with ease. They were already approved for an ED drug.
Both have passed the FDA panal advisory committee. ARNA 18-4 and VVUS 20-2.
Well worth a look now.
good looking out..
it's dropped to $9.19 as of today. but approval is scheduled for 27th and product should go on sale as of labour day. I might buy and hold a lot of these shares based on this article published today. check it
http://seekingalpha.com/article/682391-arena-pharmaceuticals-how-good-can-it-get?source=google_news
Arena Pharmaceuticals: How Good Can It Get?
June 25, 2012 | 42 comments | about: ARNA
In my last article on Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) on What ARNA Has To Say to the Advisory Committee, I updated my base case revenue model for 2012-2016, assuming the company received a positive vote from the Advisory Committee on May 10 and FDA approval on the scheduled June 27 PDUFA date. I first presented that model in Arena Pharma's 5-Year Rvenue Forecast in March.
Arena did say the right things to the Advisory Committee, and got an 18-4 vote recommending approval of Lorqess, or 19-4 if you count the one abstention, according to that voter who said he didn't know he couldn't abstain. With no clinical signal for any side effect that would require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) filing or post-approval cardiovascular outcomes trial (CVOT), a timely FDA approval seems likely on Wednesday. Based on the materials Arena submitted to the FDA, I also think the Agency will reclassify Lorqess from their preliminary restrictive Schedule II to a Schedule IV or V drug, eliminating the need for a four-month Drug Enforcement Administration process. Lorqess could be on the market after Labor Day.
In this article I want to update my base case revenue model to reflect the additional shares issued since my last article. This model uses a very conservative wholesale price of $1 per pill to Arena's North and South America marketing partner, Eisai Pharmaceuticals. At two pills per day, that is only $2 a day per patient.
(click to enlarge)Lorqess base case
I've adjusted my base case revenue model for the 200 million shares now outstanding. I would refer you back to my earlier article for a line-by-line discussion of the assumptions. Under this model, Arena stock is worth $41 a share in 2016. Using the tough 20% discount rate, that translates to $17 today. Using a more normal 15% discount rate, that would translate to $21 today.
Note that the dilution from the most recent financing reduced the 2016 target price from $46 to $41, and the current value from $19 to $17. Development-stage companies have to raise money, but it makes a great deal of difference to the shareholders and employees holding stock options how carefully they go about it.
The High Case Model
I have added a second "How Good Can It Get?" revenue model to reflect a higher price per pill, sales to the overweight as well as the obese markets, a larger rest-of-world component reflecting Arena's recent agreement to expand Eisai's marketing area to Central and South America, and some alternative discount rates for the stock price.
In addition to suppressing the appetite, Lorqess directly helps diabetics reduce glucose production, is useful in smoking cessation and cocaine addiction, and is probably useful in alcohol addiction and depression. In recent talks with doctors, I've become more aware of the usefulness of Lorqess in treating multiple symptoms. For example, one doctor with the Veteran's Administration told me that the combination of obesity, diabetes and depression is so common that he has a keyboard macro to insert that phrase into reports. I knew obesity doctors are desperate for a new drug with low side effects that works, but I did not realize that other doctors treating other problems are likely to try Lorqess on any of their patients that happen to be overweight or obese.
Also, in a company marketing survey about 20% of obesity doctors said they would immediately prescribe Lorqess with phentermine. They are very familiar with phentermine, but it has to be dosed for no more than 12 weeks before the patient is allowed to detox. Most patients regain any weight they lost during this detox period. Because Lorqess has a completely different method of action that suppresses the appetite receptor, doctors are hoping patients can use Lorqess to at least plateau during the detox period, and then resume rapid weight loss when they can go back on phentermine. It won't take many Hollywood personalities to attribute their weight loss to LorPhen to make word-of-mouth take off.
The "how good can it get?" model is expanded from the base case model, and I will go through it line by line:
(click to enlarge)Lorqess best case model
Line 1: The U.S. population is projected to grow at 0.875% per year.
Line 2: I assume that only the 67% between 15 and 64 years old are prospective patients.
Line 3: Obesity estimates for this age group vary, and 34% is a recent number. I used 30% in the base model.
Line 4: Last year, about 4.4 million people sought obesity treatment, or 6% of the calculated prospective patient group. I assume that this will grow by one percentage point in 2013 and then by two percentage points a year for the next three years as word spreads about the availability of Lorqess and LorPhen.
Line 5: Line 3 times line 4 gives us the number of obese that will seek treatment each year. Many of these might be pushed by insurance companies looking to reduce future liabilities.
Line 6: I've added similar information for those who are overweight, but not obese. Lorqess will be labeled for overweight with one comorbidity, and overweight patients will ask for it. About 36% of the population is overweight, totaling 70% for obese or overweight.
Line 7: I assumed that overweight people will seek treatment at half the percentage rate of obese people.
Line 8: Line 6 times line 7 gives the number of overweight patients per year.
Line 9: Line 5 plus line 8 gives the total number of patients per year.
Line 10: The FDA has two different standards for obesity drugs, and a new drug only has to reach statistical significance on one of them to be approved. That's because all diet drugs seem to work very well for some people and not at all for others. The two standards are in place to allow a drug that works well for a sub-population to get approval, even if its overall numbers are weak.
Within 30 days of starting treatment with Lorqess, doctors know who the high-responders are. In Arena's clinical trials, that cohort was about 35% of those taking the drug. In actual practice, I expect LorPhen to raise the percentage of high responders, and I've increased it by five percentage points each year starting in 2014. This is the obesity drug market share I am forecasting for Lorqess.
Line 11: Line 9 times line 10 gives line 11, the number of patients that will be on Lorqess each year.
Below line 11, I've calculated the market share Lorqess will get of the total overweight/obese population.
Line 12: Next I have assumed that Lorqess is priced at $1.50 a pill wholesale, with two pills a day. I recall one early conference call where the company said $1 was the low end of the reasonable range, and I may still be too conservative here. A retail price of $3 a pill would cost the patient $180 a month, which seems reasonable. (I expect most insurance companies to reimburse for Lorqess and LorPhen.) Assuming $3 a day per patient times the number of patients on line 11 gives us the annual revenues to their U.S. marketing partner, Eisai Pharmaceuticals.
In 2012, the drug will not be launched until after Labor Day, so I have divided the 2012 revenue calculation by four to get to the $627 million in sales by Eisai. To be conservative, I also divided the 2013 sales by two to account for rollout and stocking issues, reducing Eisai's revenues from Lorqess to $1.5 billion.
Line 13: Under the terms of its deal with Eisai, Arena will manufacture the product in Switzerland and sell it to Eisai for a purchase price starting at 31.5% of Eisai's annual net product sales. The purchase price will increase on a tiered basis to as high as 36.5% on the portion of annual net product sales exceeding $750 million. I assumed that each $100 million over the first $350 million earns Arena an extra percentage point. That gives us the percentage of revenues to Arena from Eisai, assuming Lorqess does not hit full stride until 2014.
Line 14: Line 12 times line 13 gives the U.S. revenues to Arena from Eisai's sales of Lorqess.
Line 15: I then assumed the same path for revenue growth in Europe and the rest of the world with a one-year lag. Arena filed for approval in Europe on March 2, and already is in discussions with potential marketing partners. Line 15 assumes European and South American introduction is delayed to the second quarter of 2013.
Line 16: In addition to their share of the sales of Lorqess, Arena gets up to an additional $60 million in milestone payments upon regulatory approval and the delivery of product supply for the launch. I show that as revenue in 2012. There's another $70 million in regulatory and development milestone payments that I split evenly between 2013 and 2014.
Line 17: There's $1.16 billion in one-time purchase price adjustment payments based on annual sales levels of Lorqess. I don't have any idea what that schedule of payments is. I assumed it added six percentage points to Arena's share of the revenues starting in 2013, which adds up to $1.16 billion by the end of 2016. The actual schedule may be faster or slower.
Line 18: Total revenues for Arena under this optimistic case equal $262 million this year, a little over $1 billion next year, almost $3 billion in 2014 as Europe kicks in, and over $5.5 billion two years later. If these numbers seem outrageous to you, fine - do your own spreadsheet.
Line 19: The big question is: What's it worth? Any drug that has blockbuster status is worth at least 6 times revenues, and usually more. Using 6 times revenues, Arena has a value of $1.5 billion this year, followed by $6.2 billion in 2013, $8.3 billion in 2014, and so on.
Line 20: After the recent financing the company has 200 million shares outstanding.
Line 21: The calculated price per share is $8 this year, $31 next year, $87 in 2014, and so on. Wall Street values companies by discounting their expected future prices. Once Lorqess is approved, spreadsheet models like this will be everywhere. Some will use more aggressive assumptions, and some will use less aggressive assumptions. Although Wall Street usually discounts future earnings and prices at a 10% rate, maybe 15%, I have used a more stringent 20% discount rate.
Line 22: Using a 20% discount rate, that $166 price in 2016 is worth $68 today. Using a 15% discount rate, $166 is worth $87 today. Using the 10% discount rate often granted to Big Pharma, the stock is worth $109 today.
The truth undoubtedly lies between my base model and my "How Good Can It Get?" model. We don't know what the pricing will be, we don't know how fast Arena will sign up a European and an Asian partner, and we don't know what discount rate Wall Street will assign to Arena. We do know obesity is a major problem for health care spending, and that Lorqess has the potential to be bigger than Lipitor simply because the addressable market is so much larger. It appears to me that Wall Street is drastically undervaluing Arena Pharmaceuticals.
Disclosure: I am long ARNA.
Additional disclosure: Subscribers to New World Investor are long a very large amount of the stock and options.
it's dropped to $9.19 as of today. but approval is scheduled for 27th and product should go on sale as of labour day. I might buy and hold a lot of these shares based on this article published today. check it
http://seekingalpha.com/article/682391-arena-pharmaceuticals-how-good-can-it-get?source=google_news
Arena Pharmaceuticals: How Good Can It Get?
June 25, 2012 | 42 comments | about: ARNA
In my last article on Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) on What ARNA Has To Say to the Advisory Committee, I updated my base case revenue model for 2012-2016, assuming the company received a positive vote from the Advisory Committee on May 10 and FDA approval on the scheduled June 27 PDUFA date. I first presented that model in Arena Pharma's 5-Year Rvenue Forecast in March.
Arena did say the right things to the Advisory Committee, and got an 18-4 vote recommending approval of Lorqess, or 19-4 if you count the one abstention, according to that voter who said he didn't know he couldn't abstain. With no clinical signal for any side effect that would require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) filing or post-approval cardiovascular outcomes trial (CVOT), a timely FDA approval seems likely on Wednesday. Based on the materials Arena submitted to the FDA, I also think the Agency will reclassify Lorqess from their preliminary restrictive Schedule II to a Schedule IV or V drug, eliminating the need for a four-month Drug Enforcement Administration process. Lorqess could be on the market after Labor Day.
In this article I want to update my base case revenue model to reflect the additional shares issued since my last article. This model uses a very conservative wholesale price of $1 per pill to Arena's North and South America marketing partner, Eisai Pharmaceuticals. At two pills per day, that is only $2 a day per patient.
(click to enlarge)Lorqess base case
I've adjusted my base case revenue model for the 200 million shares now outstanding. I would refer you back to my earlier article for a line-by-line discussion of the assumptions. Under this model, Arena stock is worth $41 a share in 2016. Using the tough 20% discount rate, that translates to $17 today. Using a more normal 15% discount rate, that would translate to $21 today.
Note that the dilution from the most recent financing reduced the 2016 target price from $46 to $41, and the current value from $19 to $17. Development-stage companies have to raise money, but it makes a great deal of difference to the shareholders and employees holding stock options how carefully they go about it.
The High Case Model
I have added a second "How Good Can It Get?" revenue model to reflect a higher price per pill, sales to the overweight as well as the obese markets, a larger rest-of-world component reflecting Arena's recent agreement to expand Eisai's marketing area to Central and South America, and some alternative discount rates for the stock price.
In addition to suppressing the appetite, Lorqess directly helps diabetics reduce glucose production, is useful in smoking cessation and cocaine addiction, and is probably useful in alcohol addiction and depression. In recent talks with doctors, I've become more aware of the usefulness of Lorqess in treating multiple symptoms. For example, one doctor with the Veteran's Administration told me that the combination of obesity, diabetes and depression is so common that he has a keyboard macro to insert that phrase into reports. I knew obesity doctors are desperate for a new drug with low side effects that works, but I did not realize that other doctors treating other problems are likely to try Lorqess on any of their patients that happen to be overweight or obese.
Also, in a company marketing survey about 20% of obesity doctors said they would immediately prescribe Lorqess with phentermine. They are very familiar with phentermine, but it has to be dosed for no more than 12 weeks before the patient is allowed to detox. Most patients regain any weight they lost during this detox period. Because Lorqess has a completely different method of action that suppresses the appetite receptor, doctors are hoping patients can use Lorqess to at least plateau during the detox period, and then resume rapid weight loss when they can go back on phentermine. It won't take many Hollywood personalities to attribute their weight loss to LorPhen to make word-of-mouth take off.
The "how good can it get?" model is expanded from the base case model, and I will go through it line by line:
(click to enlarge)Lorqess best case model
Line 1: The U.S. population is projected to grow at 0.875% per year.
Line 2: I assume that only the 67% between 15 and 64 years old are prospective patients.
Line 3: Obesity estimates for this age group vary, and 34% is a recent number. I used 30% in the base model.
Line 4: Last year, about 4.4 million people sought obesity treatment, or 6% of the calculated prospective patient group. I assume that this will grow by one percentage point in 2013 and then by two percentage points a year for the next three years as word spreads about the availability of Lorqess and LorPhen.
Line 5: Line 3 times line 4 gives us the number of obese that will seek treatment each year. Many of these might be pushed by insurance companies looking to reduce future liabilities.
Line 6: I've added similar information for those who are overweight, but not obese. Lorqess will be labeled for overweight with one comorbidity, and overweight patients will ask for it. About 36% of the population is overweight, totaling 70% for obese or overweight.
Line 7: I assumed that overweight people will seek treatment at half the percentage rate of obese people.
Line 8: Line 6 times line 7 gives the number of overweight patients per year.
Line 9: Line 5 plus line 8 gives the total number of patients per year.
Line 10: The FDA has two different standards for obesity drugs, and a new drug only has to reach statistical significance on one of them to be approved. That's because all diet drugs seem to work very well for some people and not at all for others. The two standards are in place to allow a drug that works well for a sub-population to get approval, even if its overall numbers are weak.
Within 30 days of starting treatment with Lorqess, doctors know who the high-responders are. In Arena's clinical trials, that cohort was about 35% of those taking the drug. In actual practice, I expect LorPhen to raise the percentage of high responders, and I've increased it by five percentage points each year starting in 2014. This is the obesity drug market share I am forecasting for Lorqess.
Line 11: Line 9 times line 10 gives line 11, the number of patients that will be on Lorqess each year.
Below line 11, I've calculated the market share Lorqess will get of the total overweight/obese population.
Line 12: Next I have assumed that Lorqess is priced at $1.50 a pill wholesale, with two pills a day. I recall one early conference call where the company said $1 was the low end of the reasonable range, and I may still be too conservative here. A retail price of $3 a pill would cost the patient $180 a month, which seems reasonable. (I expect most insurance companies to reimburse for Lorqess and LorPhen.) Assuming $3 a day per patient times the number of patients on line 11 gives us the annual revenues to their U.S. marketing partner, Eisai Pharmaceuticals.
In 2012, the drug will not be launched until after Labor Day, so I have divided the 2012 revenue calculation by four to get to the $627 million in sales by Eisai. To be conservative, I also divided the 2013 sales by two to account for rollout and stocking issues, reducing Eisai's revenues from Lorqess to $1.5 billion.
Line 13: Under the terms of its deal with Eisai, Arena will manufacture the product in Switzerland and sell it to Eisai for a purchase price starting at 31.5% of Eisai's annual net product sales. The purchase price will increase on a tiered basis to as high as 36.5% on the portion of annual net product sales exceeding $750 million. I assumed that each $100 million over the first $350 million earns Arena an extra percentage point. That gives us the percentage of revenues to Arena from Eisai, assuming Lorqess does not hit full stride until 2014.
Line 14: Line 12 times line 13 gives the U.S. revenues to Arena from Eisai's sales of Lorqess.
Line 15: I then assumed the same path for revenue growth in Europe and the rest of the world with a one-year lag. Arena filed for approval in Europe on March 2, and already is in discussions with potential marketing partners. Line 15 assumes European and South American introduction is delayed to the second quarter of 2013.
Line 16: In addition to their share of the sales of Lorqess, Arena gets up to an additional $60 million in milestone payments upon regulatory approval and the delivery of product supply for the launch. I show that as revenue in 2012. There's another $70 million in regulatory and development milestone payments that I split evenly between 2013 and 2014.
Line 17: There's $1.16 billion in one-time purchase price adjustment payments based on annual sales levels of Lorqess. I don't have any idea what that schedule of payments is. I assumed it added six percentage points to Arena's share of the revenues starting in 2013, which adds up to $1.16 billion by the end of 2016. The actual schedule may be faster or slower.
Line 18: Total revenues for Arena under this optimistic case equal $262 million this year, a little over $1 billion next year, almost $3 billion in 2014 as Europe kicks in, and over $5.5 billion two years later. If these numbers seem outrageous to you, fine - do your own spreadsheet.
Line 19: The big question is: What's it worth? Any drug that has blockbuster status is worth at least 6 times revenues, and usually more. Using 6 times revenues, Arena has a value of $1.5 billion this year, followed by $6.2 billion in 2013, $8.3 billion in 2014, and so on.
Line 20: After the recent financing the company has 200 million shares outstanding.
Line 21: The calculated price per share is $8 this year, $31 next year, $87 in 2014, and so on. Wall Street values companies by discounting their expected future prices. Once Lorqess is approved, spreadsheet models like this will be everywhere. Some will use more aggressive assumptions, and some will use less aggressive assumptions. Although Wall Street usually discounts future earnings and prices at a 10% rate, maybe 15%, I have used a more stringent 20% discount rate.
Line 22: Using a 20% discount rate, that $166 price in 2016 is worth $68 today. Using a 15% discount rate, $166 is worth $87 today. Using the 10% discount rate often granted to Big Pharma, the stock is worth $109 today.
The truth undoubtedly lies between my base model and my "How Good Can It Get?" model. We don't know what the pricing will be, we don't know how fast Arena will sign up a European and an Asian partner, and we don't know what discount rate Wall Street will assign to Arena. We do know obesity is a major problem for health care spending, and that Lorqess has the potential to be bigger than Lipitor simply because the addressable market is so much larger. It appears to me that Wall Street is drastically undervaluing Arena Pharmaceuticals.
Disclosure: I am long ARNA.
Additional disclosure: Subscribers to New World Investor are long a very large amount of the stock and options.
Looks like it's already priced into value of the stock.
The funny thing is that people who make money by on speculation and sell on news.
If it's on the news, it's already too late to consider it a tip.
I lost some $$ on biotechs recently so I will chill on them.
Really though it was because of my brokers limitations but a loss is a Loss!
Really though it was because of my brokers limitations but a loss is a Loss!
bumpage for UNDTD at .51
I lost some $$ on biotechs recently so I will chill on them.
Really though it was because of my brokers limitations but a loss is a Loss!
Wish I had $$ in IBB. Got it virtual
at 117. It's low 130s now
Sent by radiated carrier pigeon..
Looks like it's already priced into value of the stock.
The funny thing is that people who make money by on speculation and sell on news.
If it's on the news, it's already too late to consider it a tip.
i dont think many people understand this concept. it took me some time to understand, and i still dont 100% get it, but im gettin it.
in other unrelated news, look at facebook
this sucker is taking a major beating
