Dem 2020 Diversity Not a Priority
Biden stable, Bernie sags, Buttigieg surges
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_042319/
West Long Branch, NJ – Diversity may be the byword for the 2020 field of Democrats, but it does not appear to be a priority in choosing a challenger to Trump according to the Monmouth University Poll. Most Democratic voters say race and gender are not factors in determining who should be the party’s presidential nominee. There have been some shifts in the current beauty contest – with a noted surge by a small city mayor – but the front-runner spot has held steady as former Vice President Joe Biden reportedly is set to jump into the race this week.
Race and gender do not seem to be important factors for Democratic voters when considering who the party should choose to run against Trump. Fully 87% say the race of the nominee does not matter. Just 5% say it would be better for Democrats to nominate a person of color, which is offset by 6% who say it would actually be better for the party to nominate a white candidate. Similarly, 77% say the gender of the nominee does not matter. Just 7% say it would be better for Democrats to nominate a woman, while slightly more (12%) say it would actually be better for the party to nominate a man.
“This is the most diverse field of presidential candidates in history, but that doesn’t seem to be a major consideration for Democratic voters at this early stage of the campaign. It’s probably a large reason why a couple of old white guys are leading the pack right now,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Among a field of 24 announced and potential contenders, Biden currently has the support of 27% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, which is similar to his 28% support in March and 29% in January. Support for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is currently at 20%, which is down slightly from 25% in March, but still higher than his 16% support in January.
“If Biden does enter the race this week, he starts off with a fairly stable amount of good will from Democrats. We might even expect to see a small bump after his announcement, but the bigger question will be what happens when those voters start taking a closer look at him on the campaign trail. It’s a long way to Iowa and a lot can happen,” said Murray.
South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg currently has 8% support. He registered less than 1% in prior Monmouth polls. California Sen. Kamala Harris has 8% support, off just slightly from 10% in March and 11% in January. Rounding out the field of top contenders are Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 6% (from 8% in both March and January) and former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke at 4% (6% in March and 7% in January).
Others who score at least 1% include New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (2%, from 5% in March and 4% in January), former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (2%, from 1% in prior polls), Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (1%, from 3% in March and 2% in January), and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (1%, from 1% in March). The remaining 14 names asked about in the survey receive support from less than 1% of Democratic voters at this time, which is basically unchanged from their support levels in prior national Monmouth polls.
Most of the top contenders saw a decline of 2 to 3 points in their support since March, while Sanders actually dropped by 5 points and Biden lost only one point. The major exception to this trend is Buttigieg, whose support shot up 8 points from basically nothing one month ago. The other sizable shift in this poll is the number of Democrats who do not lean toward any candidate. This undecided group currently stands at 14%, up from 8% in March.
“You cannot deny that Buttigieg is experiencing a real moment right now, but it’s important to remember there is a lot of fluidity in this field. Voters are not only moving from candidate to candidate but also from candidate to undecided. Right now, the top tier is determined largely by who has a high national profile. This may not gel with how the contest will play out in the early states,” said Murray.
If, contrary to current media reports, Biden chooses not to run, Sanders would move into the front-runner spot with 27% support (down from 32% in March), Buttigieg 11% (from less than 1%), Harris 11% (from 15%), Warren 8% (from 10%), O’Rourke 6% (from 7%), Booker 3% (from 6%), Hickenlooper 2% (from 1%), and Klobuchar 2% (from 3%).
Biden’s overall rating among Democrats has declined following complaints from some women about his interactions with them, but there are two important caveats to this finding: (1) Biden remains the most popular contender in the field by far and (2) his closest rival has also experienced a similar drop in standing during this time. Biden’s net favorability rating among Democratic voters stands at +56 (72% favorable and 16% unfavorable), which is down from +63 last month (76% favorable and 13% unfavorable). It is worth noting that the March results already showed a decline from Biden’s net +71 in January (80%-9%), well before the recent controversy emerged. Sanders’ rating now stands at +44 (65% favorable and 21% unfavorable), which is down from +53 in March (70%-17%) and +49 in January (68%-19%).
REST OF THE STORY
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_042319/
"My family lied to me" and make herself a compassionate figure. She was gift wrapped the perfect out of all that Native America fuckery she pulled at Harvard.