Making Sense of Iraq's Vote

QueEx · Jul 26, 2005

<center>Fiery Iraqi parliament
grills government</center>

Mon Jul 25, 2005 8:14 AM ET

By Michael Georgy
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Already battered by an insurgency, Iraq's government faced a barrage of questions in parliament on Monday on everything from the fate of billions of dollars in donor pledges to garbage collection.

Reading long lists of complaints, National Assembly members were often cut short by the deputy speaker because they were taking too long to air grievances in the session televised live.

"None of this money is on the ground," said Faris Rajgaree, referring to billions of dollars that countries have pledged for Iraq's reconstruction.

Iraq's troubles reach far beyond the almost daily suicide bombings, shootings and kidnappings that make headlines.

Electricity shortages mean many people endure blistering summer heat, which can rise above 50 degrees centigrade (122 Fahrenheit), with no air conditioning.

With violence scaring away investors and driving up unemployment, Iraqis are struggling to make ends meet.

Stagnant pools of raw sewage can be found in many areas. Hospitals frequently filled with patients who have been blown up or shot desperately need more equipment and medicine.

"We have heard about all these projects but I don't think one-fourth of the money has been spent. There is a shortage of garbage trucks," said a parliament member.

"We have seen nothing from the donor countries. They just spend money on their staff and hotels."

Politicians who hailed Iraq's parliament as a symbol of the country's steps toward democracy after Iraq's first democratic elections in January now come under the chamber's spotlight.

Parliament members, who have lost two colleagues to guerrilla violence, meet in the heavily guarded government and diplomatic green zone surrounded by blast walls.

"We just can't leave these problems open-ended. We have to come up with solutions," said one.

Iraq, a major oil producer, relies on limited crude exports because guerrillas often blow up pipelines, depriving the government of export revenues that form the backbone of the economy.

Monday's session focused on poor services, including what parliament member Muayaad Obaidi called a health and social disaster, hours after two suicide bombings killed at least nine more Iraqis in central Baghdad.

There were no discussions of sectarian tensions that have been building since the elections empowered Shi'ites and sidelined Sunnis once dominant under Saddam Hussein.

But one female parliament member stood up and said neglect of the southern Shi'ite city of Nassiriya reminded her of the toppled Iraqi leader's policies.

"The governorate was suppressed under Saddam's dictatorship. Today I see worse suppression, as if they are continuing his policies," said Ibtisaam al-Awaadi.

"Nassiriya hospital is not even capable of storing dates."

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsA...TERNATIONAL-IRAQ-ASSEMBLY-DC.XML&pageNumber=1

Greed · Jul 26, 2005

dont know about you but thats definitely a feel good article. disagreement with no deaths.

QueEx · Jul 26, 2005

I don't know about "feel good article" (such a loaded term), but I think it shows that the government is growing tired of what looks like a hopeless situation and may find something ... anything ... to do about harnessing the insurgency. Also, there are several articles out today about the Sunni's wanting to end their boycott of drafting the constitution and coming back to the bargaining table.

QueEx

Greed · Jul 26, 2005

no not anything(talk about loaded term), but anything showing political progress is good news to me. open opposition to the iraqi powers that be without a throat slit is good news to me.

i know from the last 2 yrs that its apparently a low standard but i can live with it.

QueEx · Jul 26, 2005

No question, the Iraqi government getting down to business is good news -- and doing it without killing each other is a sign that it is starting to understand that, despite the occupation and the insurgency, there are basic problems it needs to address or Iraqi society could simply degenerate. They seem to be getting the message: if they don't soon take charge, there may be little to take charge of.

I don't know how long it might be before the Iraqis can provide for their own security, but security forces won't be worth shit unless there is government to direct them.

QueEx · Aug 2, 2005

[frame]http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,16119046%255E12272,00.html[/frame]

Greed · Aug 16, 2005

Failure to meet constitution date worries Iraqis

Failure to meet constitution date worries Iraqis
By Luke Baker
1 hour, 22 minutes ago

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Some Iraqis expressed fear on Tuesday that extending talks over a new constitution could cause more problems than it solves, while lawmakers put a brave face on their failure to draft the document by Monday's deadline.

The U.S. administration, which pressed hard for the charter to be completed by August 15, also looked to play down the failure, with both President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice praising the effort, if not the result.

Violence, which has dogged the country for more than two years and which some hope will be tempered by the writing of an inclusive constitution, persisted. A mortar round landed near Baghdad's protected Green Zone as politicians met on Monday.

In Sadr City, a poor Shi'ite Muslim district of northeastern Baghdad, gunmen shot and killed two guards outside a civil defense building overnight, the police said.

After weeks of talks, politicians conceded defeat just minutes before the midnight deadline, admitting they could not agree on the wording of the draft charter.

To avoid having to dissolve parliament as a result, the National Assembly voted to change the interim constitution and allow a week longer to come up with the new document, which must now be submitted to parliament by midnight on August 22.

"Come on, this is a success," Planning Minister Barham Salih, a senior Kurdish politician, said as he tried to look positively on the failure to meet the self-imposed deadline.

"We are not killing each other," he said.

But Iraqis were more skeptical about their politicians' performance, and worried at the prospect of further delays.

"The delay is not in the interests of the Iraqi people and the longer the process is drawn out, definitely the more harm it will do," said Ihsan Ali, a Baghdad resident sitting reading newspaper reports of the talks' collapse.

"We want this issue to end as soon as possible for the benefit of the Iraqi people."

Some newspapers played up the continued lack of power and security, saying that was also on the minds of ordinary people frustrated by the drawn-out debate over the constitution.

"HUGE DIFFERENCES"

Even if a text of the document is agreed in the next week -- possibly a big "if" -- it is unlikely to have any immediate impact, particularly on the security situation, with guerrillas vowing to push ahead with their two-year-old revolt.

Attacks against U.S. forces also show little sign of letting up, averaging about 65 a day for the past several months.

Once it is submitted to parliament, the new constitution will have to be put to a referendum in mid-October, and if approved, new elections will be held under it in mid-December.

Both of those votes are likely to be heavily targeted by Sunni Arab insurgents, as was the last poll in January.

That election, the first after Saddam Hussein's fall, brought a Shi'ite-led government to power for the first time. It was largely boycotted by the Sunni Arab community, a minority that was dominant under Saddam and for centuries before.

The Sunnis' lack of participation in the election is in many respects the root of Monday night's impasse on the constitution.

Because of their boycott, they ended up with only a handful of seats in the National Assembly and next to no participation on the committee drafting the constitution.

Eventually they were given more representation on the constitutional committee, but the new members were appointed, not elected, and some Shi'ites have questioned how representative they really are of the Sunni community.

When it came to the crunch on the major issues of contention in the constitution -- federalism, the role of Islam and the distribution of natural resources -- all parties, the Kurds, Shi'ites and Sunnis, held firm, but particularly the Sunnis.

Sunni members on the constitution drafting committee said they particularly opposed a proposal by the Shi'ites for an autonomous region in the south, mirroring Kurdish autonomy in the north. It is unclear how such entrenched differences of opinion can be resolved in the next week.

"The differences, frankly, are very huge and it needs a strong national will from all sides to reach a consensus," said Salah al-Mutlaq, one of the main Sunni Arab negotiators.

Shi'ite politicians emphasized the positives, however.

"Once this constitution is written ... it is going to deal a huge blow, a demoralizing blow, to the insurgents and terrorists," said national security adviser Mowaffaq al-Rubaie.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050816...IZZ.3QA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

Greed · Aug 16, 2005

Re: Failure to meet constitution date worries Iraqis

"Come on, this is a success," Planning Minister Barham Salih, a senior Kurdish politician, said as he tried to look positively on the failure to meet the self-imposed deadline.

"We are not killing each other," he said.

thats what i said. i think like an iraqi politician.

muckraker10021 · Aug 19, 2005

Re: Failure to meet constitution date worries Iraqis



A REALITY CHECK!!!, from all the "Iraq is a success" ....PROPAGANDA!

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<img src="http://www.independent.co.uk/template/ver/gfx/new_indy_logo3.gif">
 
<img src="http://www.independent.co.uk/template/ver/gfx/mugs/robert_fisk.gif">
 

Secrets of the morgue: Baghdad's body count 

<img src="http://www.uruknet.info/pic.php?f=morgue-384x255.jpeg ">

Bodies of 1,100 civilians brought to mortuary in July
Pre-invasion, July figure was typically less than 200
Last Sunday alone, the mortuary received 36 bodies
Up to 20 per cent of the bodies are never identified
Many of the dead have been tortured or disfigured 


By Robert Fisk

Published: 17 August 2005

August 16, 2006- "The Independent" --

-- The Baghdad morgue is a fearful place of heat and stench and mourning, the cries of relatives echoing down the narrow, foetid laneway behind the pale-yellow brick medical centre where the authorities keep their computerized records. So many corpses are being brought to the mortuary that human remains are stacked on top of each other. Unidentified bodies must be buried within days for lack of space - but the municipality is so overwhelmed by the number of killings that it can no longer provide the vehicles and personnel to take the remains to cemeteries.
July was the bloodiest month in Baghdad's modern history - in all, 1,100 bodies were brought to the city's mortuary; executed for the most part, eviscerated, stabbed, bludgeoned, tortured to death. The figure is secret.

We are not supposed to know that the Iraqi capital's death toll last month was only 700 short of the total American fatalities in Iraq since April of 2003. Of the dead, 963 were men - many with their hands bound, their eyes taped and bullets in their heads - and 137 women. The statistics are as shameful as they are horrifying. For these are the men and women we supposedly came to "liberate" - and about whose fate we do not care.

The figures for this month cannot, of course, yet be calculated. But last Sunday, the mortuary received the bodies of 36 men and women, all killed by violence. By 8am on Monday, nine more human remains had been received. By midday, the figure had reached 25.

"I consider this a quiet day," one of the mortuary officials said to me as we stood close to the dead. So in just 36 hours - from dawn on Sunday to midday on Monday, 62 Baghdad civilians had been killed. No Western official, no Iraqi government minister, no civil servant, no press release from the authorities, no newspaper, mentioned this terrible statistic. The dead of Iraq - as they have from the beginning of our illegal invasion - were simply written out of the script. Officially they do not exist.

Thus there has been no disclosure of the fact that in July 2003 - three months after the invasion - 700 corpses were brought to the mortuary in Baghdad. In July of 2004, this rose to around 800. The mortuary records the violent death toll for June of this year as 879 - 764 of them male, 115 female. Of the men, 480 had been killed by firearms, along with 25 of the women. By comparison, equivalent figures for July 1997, 1998 and 1999 were all below 200.

Between 10 and 20 per cent of all bodies are never identified - the medical authorities have had to bury 500 of them since January of this year, unidentified and unclaimed. In many cases, the remains have been shattered by explosions - possibly by suicide bombers - or by deliberate disfigurement by their killers.

Mortuary officials have been appalled at the sadism visited on the victims. "We have many who have obviously been tortured - mostly men," one said. "They have terrible burn marks on hands and feet and other parts of their bodies. Many have their hands fastened behind their backs with handcuffs and their eyes have been bound with Sellotape. Then they have been shot in the head - in the back of the head, the face, the eyes. These are executions."

While Saddam's regime visited death by official execution upon its opponents, the scale of anarchy now existing in Baghdad, Mosul, Basra and other cities is unprecedented. "The July figures are the largest ever recorded in the history of the Baghdad Medical Institute," a senior member of the management told The Independent.

It is clear that death squads are roaming the streets of a city which is supposed to be under the control of the US military and the American-supported, elected government of Ibrahim al-Jaafari. Never in recent history has such anarchy been let loose on the civilians of this city - yet the Western and Iraqi authorities show no interest in disclosing the details. The writing of the new constitution - or the failure to complete it - now occupies the time of Western diplomats and journalists. The dead, it seems, do not count.

But they should. Most are between 15 and 44 - the youth of Iraq - and, if extrapolated across the country, Baghdad's 1,100 dead of last month must bring Iraq's minimum monthly casualty toll in July alone to 3,000 - perhaps 4,000. Over a year, this must reach a minimum of 36,000, a figure which puts the supposedly controversial statistic of 100,000 dead since the invasion into a much more realistic perspective.

There is no way of distinguishing the reasons for these thousands of violent deaths. Some men and women were shot at US checkpoints, others murdered, no doubt, by insurgents or thieves. A few listed as killed by "blunt instruments" might have been the dead of traffic accidents. Some of the women were probably the victims of "honour" killings - because male relatives suspected them of having illicit relations with the wrong man. Still others may have been murdered as collaborators. Doctors have been told that bodies brought to the mortuary by US forces should not be given post-mortem examinations (on the odd ground that the Americans will have already performed this function).

So many civilians are dying that the morgue has had to rely on volunteers from the holy city of Najaf to transport unidentified Shia Muslim dead to the central city's large graveyard for burial, their plots donated by religious institutions. "In some of the bodies, we find American bullets," a mortuary attendant told me. "But these could be American bullets fired by Iraqis. We don't know who's killing who - it's not our job to find out, but civilians are killing each other.

"We had a body here the other day and the relatives said he had been murdered because he had been a Baathist in the old regime. Then they said that his brother had been killed three or four weeks back because he was a member of the religious Shia Dawa party which was the enemy of Saddam. But this is the real story - the killing of the people. I don't want to die under a new constitution. I want security."

One of the problems in cataloguing the daily death toll is that the official radio often declines to report explosions. On Monday, the thump of a bomb in the Karada district was never officially explained. Only yesterday was it discovered that a suicide bomber had walked into a popular café, the Emir, and blown himself up, killing two policemen. Another explosion, officially said to be caused by a mortar, turned out to be a mine set off beneath a pile of watermelons as a US patrol was passing. A civilian died.

Again, there was no official account of these deaths. They were not recorded by the government nor by the occupying armies nor, of course, by the Western press. Like the bodies in the Baghdad city mortuary, they did not exist.

© 2005 Independent News & Media (UK) Ltd.

Greed · Aug 20, 2005

Iraqis march against plans for federal state

more PROPAGANDA about a people getting use to democracy. how dare they participate in a peaceful protest.
the sky is falling...again

Iraqis march against plans for federal state
By Oliver Poole in Baghdad

With 72 hours to go until the latest deadline for Iraq's political leaders to agree a new constitution, tension spilled on to the streets yesterday with mass demonstrations and reports of gunfire.

Thousands of supporters of Moqtada al-Sadr, the militant Shia cleric, marched in Baghdad in opposition to plans for a more federal state.

Women in black abaya robes held placards reading "no to division" as the marchers made their way through the impoverished Sadr City neighbourhood, a Shia bastion, chanting "yes to unity".

Crowds of angry Shia gathered in at least six other districts demanding the preservation of "national unity". In the city of Baquba, more than a thousand Sunni protesters attended a rally opposing greater regional autonomy.

The constitution was supposed to have been finalised last Monday but had its deadline extended by seven days. Kurd representatives have insisted that the de facto autonomy that the Kurdish north has enjoyed since the end of the 1991 Gulf War be officially recognised.

Leading Shia politicians headed by the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which dominated January's election, want similar rights for Shia-dominated regions in the south.

In a public warning of the consequences of continued disagreement, Mowaffaq al-Rubaie, the Iraqi government's national security adviser, said yesterday that federalism was the only way that the country's varied community interests could be reconciled without "civil war".

Sadr and his supporters say federalism is the first step towards the dissolution of Iraq and claim that it is being imposed by Iranian sympathisers.

The Sunnis, marching in Baquba, support their political leaders who say it is an attempt to formalise the loss of their authority over the country.

Extremist Sunni nationalists have given warning that any Sunnis seen aiding the new constitution, due to be voted on in a referendum in October, will be killed.

Yesterday three members of the country's main Sunni party were kidnapped in Mosul as they put up posters calling for participation in the political process.

In Ramadi, insurgents burst into a meeting on Thursday at which religious and tribal leaders were discussing the constitution and opened fire with machine-guns.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/mai...rq20.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/08/20/ixworld.html

Greed · Aug 23, 2005

Iraq gets constitution draft, Sunni ire delays

Iraq gets constitution draft, Sunni ire delays
By Michael Georgy and Andrew Hammond
9 minutes ago

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's majority Shi'ites and Kurdish allies pushed a draft constitution into parliament on Monday, minutes before a midnight deadline, but minority Sunnis, warning of civil war, held up a final vote amid confusion.

With the Shi'ite Islamist-led coalition talking of a "final" document being completed, the speaker of the National Assembly announced to applause the deadline had been met and a draft constitution presented. But without calling a vote he dismissed the chamber, saying there would be three more days of talks.

It remained unclear how far continuing Sunni Arab objections to regional autonomy within a federal state could be overcome and Shi'ite leaders said they were ready to press on regardless.

"If it passes, there will be an uprising in the streets," Sunni negotiator Saleh al-Mutlak said, adding that further blockage on a deal would in his view trigger elections to a new interim assembly.

But Shi'ite and Kurdish delegates were giving little ground and U.S. diplomats are pressing hard to keep to the timetable.

"We have fully completed the constitution," Shi'ite Vice President Adel Abdel Mehdi told Reuters. "But we may need to modify some points to satisfy the others."

Speaker Hajim al-Hassani said four points, including the key issues of the very concept of a "federal" state and control of oil revenues, were still in dispute -- much the same as when an original deadline was put back by a week last Monday.

Mutlak said he reckoned there were many more objections.

But the Shi'ite head of the constitutional drafting committee, Humam Hamoudi, said that if there were still no compromises in three days: "The constitution will keep moving."

Kurdish lawmaker Ahmed Pinjwani conceded, however, that if the Sunnis could not be won over, "It will move with a limp."

U.S. PRESSURE

President Bush, himself campaigning to quell growing disquiet at home over the costly military occupation of Iraq, has pressed hard for the U.S.-sponsored timetable to be respected and says it will help sap the Sunni Arab insurgency.

The cost may be a collapse of a fragile attempt at consensus politics that had brought Sunni leaders, who shunned the January vote that produced the parliament, into the drafting process.

The draft prepared by Shi'ites and Kurds, assisted by U.S. diplomats but without Sunni involvement, gave ground to some of the once dominant minority's fears of Shi'ites and Kurds hiving off strong federal regions in the oil-rich north and south.

But Sunni Arabs, outraged at what they called a "breach of consensus," stood by a demand "federalism" be left out.

The text seen by Reuters said Iraq was a "federal" republic. The draft also made Islam "a main source" of law in what seemed a compromise between Islamist Shi'ites and secular Kurds.

"We will campaign ... to tell both Sunnis and Shi'ites to reject the constitution, which has elements that will lead to the break-up of Iraq and civil war," Soha Allawi, a Sunni Arab member of the drafting committee, told Reuters.

SHI'ITE DETERMINATION

Parliament had faced dissolution if no draft were adopted by midnight (2000 GMT). Word earlier in the evening that the Shi'te majority was ready to push a deal through provoked scenes of rejoicing in the holy city of Najaf and other Shi'ite towns.

"We cannot wait and give them all the time they need to be convinced ... If our Sunni Arab brothers don't want to vote for federalism then they can reject it," said Jalal-el-Din al-Sagheer, a Shi'ite cleric on the constitutional committee.

Interim rules say the charter is rejected if two thirds of voters in three of Iraq's 18 provinces vote against it.

Kurdish delegate Abdel Khalek Zangana said the provision on federalism satisfied Kurdish demands for guarantees they would retain the broad autonomy they already have in the north.

One Sunni leader said the text had dropped wording that forbade secession from Iraq; Kurdish leaders say they do not want to break away entirely but want to keep the option open.

U.S. diplomats, led by ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, architect of the new Afghan constitution, have been working hard to save the deadline. Secular Kurdish delegates had complained that he had made concessions to the Shi'ite Islamists in allowing for a greater role for Islam in Iraqi law.

The draft document, seen in part by Reuters, described Iraq as a "republican, parliamentarian, democratic and federal" state. It also said, in general terms, that natural resources would be controlled jointly by central and local government.

In former rebel strongholds like Falluja and across the Sunni heartlands of the north and west, which largely shunned the January polls that produced the Shi'ite and Kurd-dominated interim legislature, voters have been registering in large numbers.

Some Shi'ites, notably supporters of radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, also reject federalism.

With discontent spreading at the failure of the present government to curb violence or improve living standards, rival parties see a chance to embarrass it at the polls.

If the referendum ratifies the constitution, voting in December will be for a full-term parliament with full powers.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050822/ts_nm/iraq_dc

muckraker10021 · Aug 30, 2005

Re: Failure to meet constitution date worries Iraqis

<table id="table4" bgcolor="#bf001f" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="44%"> <tr><td width="181"><img src="http://www.geobop.com/education/911/images/mine/bush/nazi.jpg"><img src="http://www.geobop.com/education/911/images/mine/bush/nazi.jpg"></td> <td bgcolor="#bf001f"> <table id="table5" bordercolorlight="#BF001F" bordercolordark="#BF001F" bgcolor="#bf001f" border="5" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="335" width="200"> <tr> <td> <img src="http://www.nypress.com/17/31/news&columns/BUSH-FEATURE-300.jpg" border="0" height="335" width="200"></td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table>

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ANOTHER REALITY CHECK!!!,
from all the "Iraq is a success"
"We Have A Constitution"....PROPAGANDA!

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So the bush junta now has "A Constitution"? - that's all it is, a piece of paper with the word constitution in the Arabic language printed on it. Does it have any credibility at all with the 99.999 % of the 25 million plus Iraqis that live outside the "green zone" and don't get phone calls from Condi Rice & baby bush??.
NO!!, For them it is a meaningless occurrence.

Even for the elite Iraqis inside the "green zone" seated in Saddam's air conditioned palaces, being aggressively prodded by the American invaders to come up with "A Constitution"?, it is a meaningless occurrence.

The real battle for Iraq will occur in the streets outside the "green zone".

For you peeps who are relying on the "Media Of Mass Distraction" to tell you what's really going on here. FORGET-ABOUT-IT!!

The - "A Constitution"- is a sham because whatever it says it is SUPERSEDED by the "Bremmer Orders" .

You don't know what the "Bremmer Orders" are???
Of course you don't know!!!

The news story about the Iraqi Orders has been virtually ignored by the U.S. press. The bush junta, via Paul Bremmer who was the head of the the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), the body that ran Iraq before the first puppet prime minister Ayad Alawi was installed issued 100 Orders that have been imposed on the people of Iraq by the U.S. government.
Click Orders below if you want to read all 100 Orders

<h2><a target="_blank" href="http://www.iraqcoalition.org/regulations/#Orders">Orders</a></h2> - are Binding Instructions or directives to the Iraqi people that create penal consequences or have a direct bearing on the way Iraqis are regulated, including changes to Iraqi law.

These orders are sometimes referred to as the Bremmer Orders. No one in the U.S. or Iraq was ever allowed to cast a vote in the ballot box for any of these Orders. These Orders SUPERSED any Iraq Constitution.

In plain language what this means is that - ALL FINAL DECISIONS REGARDING IRAQ POLITICS WILL BE MADE IN THE OVAL OFFICE IN THE WHITE HOUSE IN WASHINGTON DC. It dosen't matter who is occupying the Oval Office. Bush, Clinton, whoever!

For you peeps who are asleep ,This reality tells you what an Invasion & Occupation of a country is all about. It has nothing to do with democracy and freedom.

Also the sham- "A Constitution"- provides NO significant oil revenue to the Sunnis.

Would you live in a country where virtually none of the export product ,OIL, which earns 98% of the country's $$$$ is coming to your section of the country???

This sham- "A Constitution"- , superseded by "Bremmer Orders" is a prelude to an Iraqi civil war.


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Constitution born by Caesarian Section

Monday, August 29, 2005

By Juan Cole
<img src="http://www.juancole.com/graphics/jrc1.jpg">
http://juancole.com

So they had the ceremony, and the drafting committee (minus Sunni Arab members) presented the final draft of the permanent Iraqi constitution to parliament on Sunday. But parliament did not vote on it. The Sunni Arabs did not attend. Parliament has abdicated its responsibilities toward the constitution and put it in the lap of the October 15 national referendum. Al-Hayat aptly said that the Iraqi constitution has been delivered by caesarian section. It was plucked from the womb of the drafting committee before the latter could give birth to it naturally. Sunni negotiator Salih Mutlak called it "a minefield."

Al-Hayat: Another member of the drafting committee, Sunni politician Abd al-Nasir al-Janabi, called for international intervention to prevent its being passed into law. He particularly asked for the Arab League and the United Nations to intervene. The Sunni Arab delegates noted that they were promised that the constitution drafting process would be based on consensus, and that this pledge had been the precondition for their involvement in it last June. On Sunday the Shiites and the Kurds reneged dramatically on that promise. Husain al-Falluji said that this constitution contains the seeds of Iraq's bloody partition, something, he said, that would "serve American interests."

US Ambassador in Baghdad Zalmay Khalilzad got carried away and called the Iraqi constitution the best in the Muslim world. Well, we could exclude Turkey's constitution because it is just a slightly reworked version of the Swiss, and so not very indigenous to the Muslim world. But what about, say, Indonesia? He should look at these powerpoint slides on the Indonesian constitution. The latter also guarantees civil liberties and equality before the law, but the Indonesian government, unlike Khalilzad, resisted demands by adherents of political Islam that Islamic law be recognized in it. The new Iraqi constitution contains a provision that no legislation may be passed that contradicts Islamic law. That provision makes the Iraqi constitution read as self-contradictory (since it also celebrates human rights and democracy), and puts it in contrast with that of Indonesia, which contains no such provision. Since 1998 democracy has flourished in Indonesia.

So why must an indigenous achievement such as the 1998-2002 amendments to the Indonesian Constitution be devalued in favor of a deeply flawed and fatally self-contradictory constitution produced in Iraq under twin Iranian and American auspices? Does everything have to be about George Bush?

Why isn't the Indonesian constitution the most progressive in the Muslim world?


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Factions join hands against constitution
Iraq's Sunni Leadership and the firebrand Shiite cleric Sadr both oppose federalism


August 29, 2005
By Jill Carroll | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

BAGHDAD - Several Sunni leaders drafting Iraq's constitution staunchly object to provisions included in the document and have found common cause with an unlikely ally: radical Shiites.

Sunnis and supporters of firebrand Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr have said they will rally supporters to reject the constitution in October's national referendum.

Together the groups might convince two-thirds of voters in three provinces to vote down the document, prompting new elections for a national assembly that will draft another charter. A new vote would give both parties a chance to regain influence they lost when they boycotted last January's elections, leaving former exiled Shiite political parties and Kurds with a stronger hand.

While both groups have widely different visions for Iraq, both oppose federalism, which allows semiautonomous regions to spring up across the country.

"It's not the time for federalism under occupation. It will draw a lot of troubles," says Abbas Rubaie, the political director of the Sadr movement. This stance puts them at odds with the ruling Islamist Shiite parties like the Dawa Party and the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq.

Sunni leaders who oppose the constitution say they will start a drive to inform Sunnis about what the document contains.

"We will explain everything in detail to them and we will leave it to their decision. We'll accept the result as long as we feel that no one has tampered with the vote," says Hussein Shukur al-Falluji, a Sunni member of the constitutional committee.

He says that in addition to federalism, Sunnis object to provisions regarding the dispersal of oil revenues, power sharing between the president and prime minister, and the description of the ethnic and religious identity of the country.

Efforts to include Sunnis during the drafting phase in order to quell the Sunni-led insurgency never really got off the ground. That galvanized Sunnis to call for a vote against the document even before the final draft was completed.

Adding to the strange bedfellows is the Association of Muslim Scholars, a group of extremist Sunni clerics with close ties to the insurgency who have been meeting with Sadr. Sunni clerics often dismiss Shiites as not true Muslims, while some Sadr leaders have preached against Sunni Wahhabis.

"When we have things in common with other people it's not necessarily an alliance," Mr. Rubaie says, noting that Sadr's followers support a provision keeping former members of the Baath Party out of government, the opposite stance of Sunnis. "Sayyid Moqtada has been visited by many groups and people, and that does not mean there is an agreement."

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Under US noses, brutal insurgents rule Sunni citadel

Guardian gains rare access to Iraqi town and finds it fully in control of 'mujahideen'
<img src="http://image.guardian.co.uk/sitelogos/Guardian.gif">

Omer Mahdi in Haditha and Rory Carroll in Baghdad

Monday August 22, 2005

http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,5267756-103550,00.html

Guardian

The executions are carried out at dawn on Haqlania bridge, the entrance to Haditha. A small crowd usually turns up to watch even though the killings are filmed and made available on DVD in the market the same afternoon.
One of last week's victims was a young man in a black tracksuit. Like the others he was left on his belly by the blue iron railings at the bridge's southern end. His severed head rested on his back, facing Baghdad. Children cheered when they heard that the next day's spectacle would be a double bill: two decapitations. A man named Watban and his brother had been found guilty of spying.

With so many alleged American agents dying here Haqlania bridge was renamed Agents' bridge. Then a local wag dubbed it Agents' fridge, evoking a mortuary, and that name has stuck.

A three-day visit by a reporter working for the Guardian last week established what neither the Iraqi government nor the US military has admitted: Haditha, a farming town of 90,000 people by the Euphrates river, is an insurgent citadel.

That Islamist guerrillas were active in the area was no secret but only now has the extent of their control been revealed. They are the sole authority, running the town's security, administration and communications.

A three-hour drive north from Baghdad, under the nose of an American base, it is a miniature Taliban-like state. Insurgents decide who lives and dies, which salaries get paid, what people wear, what they watch and listen to.

Haditha exposes the limitations of the Iraqi state and US power on the day when the political process is supposed to make a great leap - a draft constitution finalised and approved by midnight tonight.

For politicians and diplomats in Baghdad's fortified green zone the constitution is a means to stabilise Iraq and woo Sunni Arabs away from the rebellion. For Haditha, 140 miles north-west of the capital, whether a draft is agreed is irrelevant. Residents already have a set of laws and rules promulgated by insurgents.

Within minutes of driving into town the Guardian was stopped by a group of men and informed about rule number one: announce yourself. The mujahideen, as they are known locally, must know who comes and goes.

The Guardian reporter did not say he worked for a British newspaper. For their own protection interviewees cannot be named.

There is no fighting here because there is no one to challenge the Islamists. The police station and municipal offices were destroyed last year and US marines make only fleeting visits every few months.

Two groups share power. Ansar al-Sunna is a largely homegrown organisation, though its leader in Haditha is said to be foreign. Al-Qaida in Iraq, known locally by its old name Tawhid al-Jihad, is led by the Jordanian-born Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. There was a rumour that Zarqawi, Washington's most wanted militant after Osama bin Laden, visited early last week. True or not, residents wanted to believe they had hosted such a celebrity.

A year ago Haditha was just another sleepy town in western Anbar province, deep in the Sunni triangle and suspicious of the Shia-led government in Baghdad but no insurgent hotbed.

Then, say residents, arrived mostly Shia police with heavyhanded behaviour. "That's how it began," said one man. Attacks against the police escalated until they fled, creating a vacuum filled by insurgents.

Alcohol and music deemed unIslamic were banned, women were told to wear headscarves and relations between the sexes were closely monitored. The mobile phone network was shut down but insurgents retained their walkie-talkies and satellite phones. Right-hand lanes are reserved for their vehicles.

From attacks on US and Iraqi forces it is clear that other Anbar towns, such as Qaim, Rawa, Anna and Ramadi, are to varying degrees under the sway of rebels.

In Haditha hospital staff and teachers are allowed to collect government salaries in Ramadi, the capital of Anbar, but other civil servants have had to quit.

Last year the US trumpeted its rehabilitation of a nearby power plant: "The incredible progress at Haditha is just one example of the huge strides made by the US army corps of engineers."

Now insurgents earn praise from residents for allegedly pressuring managers to supply electricity almost 24 hours a day, a luxury denied the rest of Iraq.

The court caters solely for divorces and marriages. Alleged criminals are punished in the market. The Guardian witnessed a headmaster accused of adultery whipped 190 times with cables. Children laughed as he sobbed and his robe turned crimson.

Two men who robbed a foreign exchange shop were splayed on the ground. Masked men stood on their hands while others broke their arms with rocks. The shopkeeper offered the insurgents a reward but they declined.

DVDs of beheadings on the bridge are distributed free in the souk. Children prefer them to cartoons. "They should not watch such things," said one grandfather, but parents appeared not to object.

One DVD features a young, blond muscular man who had been disembowelled. He was said to have been a member of a six-strong US sniper team ambushed and killed on August 1. Residents said he had been paraded in town before being executed.

The US military denied that, saying six bodies were recovered and that all appeared to have died in combat. Shortly after the ambush three landmines killed 14 marines in a convoy which ventured from their base outside the town.

Twice in recent months marines backed by aircraft and armour swept into Haditha to flush out the rebels. In a pattern repeated across Anbar there were skirmishes, a few suspects killed or detained, and success was declared.

In reality, said residents, the insurgents withdrew for a few days and returned when the Americans left. They have learned from last November's battle in Falluja, when hundreds died fighting the marines and still lost the city.

Now their strategy appears to be to wait out the Americans, calculating they will leave within a few years, and then escalate what some consider the real war against a government led by Shias, a rival sect which Sunni extremists consider apostasy.

The US military declined to respond to questions detailing the extent of insurgent control in the town.

There was evidence of growing cooperation between rebels. A group in Falluja, where the resistance is said to be regrouping, wrote to Haditha requesting background checks on two volunteers from the town.

One local man in his 40s told the Guardian he wanted to be a suicide bomber to atone for sins and secure a place in heaven. "But the mujahideen will not let me. They said I had eight children and it was my duty to look after them."

Tribal elders said they feared but respected insurgents for keeping order and not turning the town into a battleground.

They appear to have been radicalised, and condemned Sunni groups, such as the Iraqi Islamic party and the Muslim Scholars' Association, for engaging in the political process.

The constitution talks, the referendum due in October


<hr noshade color="#D90000" size="12"></hr>

Greed · Sep 7, 2005

Draft Iraqi anti-terror law could keep hangman busy

Draft Iraqi anti-terror law could keep hangman busy
Tue Sep 6, 2:28 PM ET

BAGHDAD (AFP) - Iraqi MPs debated sweeping anti-terror legislation that would make even crimes such as vandalism subject to the death penalty in a bid to quell the raging insurgency.

The violence was highlighted by a US military announcement that four of its soldiers had been killed over the past two days, bringing to at least 1,881 the number of US military deaths, according to an AFP toll based on Pentagon figures.

The wide-ranging anti-terror bill proposes the death penalty not only for those guilty of "terrorist" acts, but for accomplices and those advocating "sectarian strife", according to a copy obtained by AFP.

The bill, which was being discussed behind closed doors and could be amended, lists eight offences that could qualify as terrorist acts, including "violence ... vandalism against public buildings ... forming armed gangs ... and using explosives to kill people."

Possible offences also include "advocating sectarian sedition or civil war through arming citizens or mobilising them to carry arms against each other".

Attacking Iraqi soldiers and police, as well as diplomatic missions, could also lead to execution, as could kidnapping for political, sectarian, ethnic or racial reasons.

"The culprit or accomplice in the act would be executed" along with "the instigator, the plotter, and whoever assists in any of the aforementioned crimes," the draft says.

Its authors defended the bill's harshness in the face of the mostly Sunni-led insurgency, saying "damage caused by terrorist acts has reached such a point that it threatens national unity and stability."

The death penalty was rescinded during the US-led occupation but restored by the US-installed caretaker government in August 2004 despite opposition from key US ally Britain and other European states.

Its application, most notably against ousted dictator Saddam Hussein if he is found guilty by the Iraqi Special Tribunal, remains hotly disputed.

Saddam is to go to trial on October 19 for allegedly ordering the execution of more than 140 Shiites after he survived an assassination attempt while driving through their village in 1982.

President Jalal Talabani opposes capital punishment and has said he would refuse to sign death warrants. But he recently allowed one of his deputies to confirm three death sentences passed on murderers.

The three were hanged last week in the first judicially sanctioned executions since the fall of Saddam in April 2003.

"We need to protect Iraq and the world against terrorists," said Jawad al-Maliki, an MP from the ruling Dawa party, adding that a vote on the bill was expected within a few days.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said Monday that Iraq had become a bigger centre of terrorist activity than Afghanistan under the Islamic fundamentalist Taliban regime.

"One used to be worried about Afghanistan being the centre of terrorist activities" but "my sense is that Iraq has become a major problem and in fact is worse than Afghanistan," he told the BBC.

As the lawmakers discussed ways to thwart rebels, US fighter jets bombed two bridges on the Euphrates River to disrupt insurgent movements near the Syrian border and ground troops raided a safehouse, killing two foreign insurgents.

Two US soldiers were killed Tuesday in Baghdad after their vehicle struck a roadside bomb, while two more were killed Monday, the US military said.

The Iraqi government hopes the insurgency could be weakened by agreement over a post-Saddam constitution which was finalised last month by majority Shiites and Kurds over the objections of Sunni politicians.

Last-minute unofficial talks aimed at broadening its appeal have continued even after parliament officially approved the draft end of August.

A United Nations official told AFP Tuesday he was still awaiting the final version of the draft before it could print 4.5 million copies for distribution nationwide.

"We're still awaiting the final text, so we've not been able to start the printing," said Nicholas Haysom, official in charge of constitution affairs for the UN, which is responsible for disseminating the text to every Iraqi household.

Haysom warned that the delays could result in some Iraqis not receiving a copy by the October national 15 referendum on the charter, leaving them unaware of the issues at stake.

Meanwhile, US troops handed over military control of the holy Shiite city of Najaf to Iraqi forces, marking a significant step in the US plan to transfer security duties to Iraqi forces and pave the way for a US military withdrawal.

The city and its province are largely populated by Shiite Muslims who on Tuesday held a joint religious ceremony in Baghdad with Sunni Muslims to mourn the nearly 1,000 killed in a stampede on a bridge in the capital last Wednesday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2005090...2mFOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

QueEx · Sep 19, 2005

Re: Draft Iraqi anti-terror law could keep hangman busy

<center>The clash of Shariah and democracy </center>

By Bassam Tibi International Herald Tribune
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2005

When America toppled Saddam Hussein, it promised to replace his ruthless and lawless regime with a government characterized by the rule of law. But what kind of law?

The draft Iraqi constitution provides for Islam as "a fundamental source of legislation"; it further stipulates that no law can be legislated that "contradicts the ruling of Islam." The application of Shariah, or Islamic law, is not mentioned, but that is the implication of these phrases.

The dispute between Sunnis and Shiites during the drafting of the constitution was only about whether Shariah should be the single source of lawmaking, or just one of several. Did the United States wage a costly war in Iraq in order to introduce Shariah? Did decision makers in Washington know that in post-Saddam Iraq there are divergent understandings of democracy and the rule of law - the Western secular and the Islamic Shariah-based understanding of constitutional law - which clash with each other?

In addition, there is no common understanding of Shariah among Muslims, because Islamic law is based on the interpretation of the Koran and has never been codified. The term Shariah occurs only once in the Koran, and in the context of morality, not law.

The post-Koranic character of the Shariah is made clear by the fact that in the eighth century, after the Islamic revelation, the four legal schools, or madhahib, of Islamic law were established on the basis of diverse interpretations of the Koran.

The call for Shariah that one hears today throughout the Muslim world, as religion becomes politicized and the law Islamized, is a call for an Islamic state based on the idea that Shariah can form a country's constitution. The global context is the political revival of religion - and along with it the idea of divine law. But is Shariah really constitutional law? And how does the call for Islamization of the law fit in with democracy?

In fact, Shariah understood as modern constitutional law is in conflict with individual human rights.

Take the question of freedom of faith. Islam respects the other monotheist faiths, Judaism and Christianity, and provides their believers with recognition as "protected minorities," but does not view them as equals. Muslims themselves are denied the right of conversion, which is regarded as "riddah," or apostasy. If Muslims convert, the Shariah calls for them to be punished with death.

For that reason, Shariah cannot contribute to a legal pluralism, because any pluralism must combine diversity with basic common understandings. The commitment to universal international standards can coexist with a diversity of cultures, but only if a common concept of law is insisted upon.

Respect for the global political revival of religion means recognizing religious legal traditions, even ones recently revived or newly invented. But Shariah would have to be reformed before an Islamic democracy could come about that was based on the recognition of commonalities in constitutional law.

In its present form, Shariah is not eligible as a model for constitutional law. The inclusion of Shariah in the Iraqi constitution, even as "a source," gives concern over whether this is to become the model for the rule of law in the envisioned process of a transformation of the greater Middle East.

(Bassam Tibi is a professor at the University of Göttingen, Germany, and A.D. White professor-at-large at Cornell University. He is the author of ''The Challenge of Fundamentalism: Political Islam and the New World Disorder.'')

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/09/16/news/edtibi.php

Greed · Oct 2, 2005

Iraq's President Calls for PM to Step Down

Iraq's President Calls for PM to Step Down
11 minutes ago

KIRKUK, Iraq - Iraq's Kurdish president called on the country's Shiite prime minister to step down, the president's spokesman said Sunday, escalating a political split between the two factions that make up the government.

President Jalal Talabani has accused the Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance, which holds the majority in parliament, of monopolizing power in the government and refusing to move ahead on a key issue for Kurds, the resettlement of Kurds in the northern city of Kirkuk.

"The time has come for the United Iraqi Alliance and the Kurdistan coalition to study Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari's stepping aside from his post," said Azad Jundiyani, a spokesman for Talabani. "This is for the benefit of the political process."

Asked if the Kurds would withdraw from the government if the Shiite alliance does not back them in removing al-Jaafari, Jundiyani said, "We will wait and see." Talabani has made indirect threats to withdraw from the coalition if Kurdish demands are not met.

The two blocs have been the bedrock of the temporary government. Its collapse would add a new layer of political instability and underline how struggles for power are undermining efforts to get Iraq's fractious communities to work together in a new political system.

Iraq is holding an Oct. 15 referendum on a new constitution that leaders of Iraq's Sunni Arab minority reject, while it is backed by the Shiites and Kurds.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051002...hdI2ocA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

QueEx · Oct 3, 2005

Re: Iraq's President Calls for PM to Step Down


"struggles for power are undermining efforts ...
All efforts: at a workable government; at stabilizing Iraq; at compromising with the Sunnis and ... ultimately, at bringing an end to the war.

QueEx

QueEx · Oct 3, 2005

Re: Iraq's President Calls for PM to Step Down

<center>
"... meeting would be aimed at "achieving a broad national
consensus on the constitution and guaranteeing the
participation of all Iraqi groups in the political process," ...
It would bring together "all Iraqi factions under the
auspices of the Arab League," Prince Saud said.</center>

[frame]http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,16796270%255E23109,00.html[/frame]

Gods_Favorite · Oct 3, 2005

Re: Iraq's President Calls for PM to Step Down

Greed said:
Iraq's President Calls for PM to Step Down
11 minutes ago

KIRKUK, Iraq - Iraq's Kurdish president called on the country's Shiite prime minister to step down, the president's spokesman said Sunday, escalating a political split between the two factions that make up the government.

President Jalal Talabani has accused the Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance, which holds the majority in parliament, of monopolizing power in the government and refusing to move ahead on a key issue for Kurds, the resettlement of Kurds in the northern city of Kirkuk.

"The time has come for the United Iraqi Alliance and the Kurdistan coalition to study Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari's stepping aside from his post," said Azad Jundiyani, a spokesman for Talabani. "This is for the benefit of the political process."

Asked if the Kurds would withdraw from the government if the Shiite alliance does not back them in removing al-Jaafari, Jundiyani said, "We will wait and see." Talabani has made indirect threats to withdraw from the coalition if Kurdish demands are not met.

The two blocs have been the bedrock of the temporary government. Its collapse would add a new layer of political instability and underline how struggles for power are undermining efforts to get Iraq's fractious communities to work together in a new political system.

Iraq is holding an Oct. 15 referendum on a new constitution that leaders of Iraq's Sunni Arab minority reject, while it is backed by the Shiites and Kurds.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051002...hdI2ocA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

Great here comes the civil war.

QueEx · Oct 4, 2005

Re: Iraq's President Calls for PM to Step Down

The Australian said:
SAUDI Arabia opened an Arab gathering on Iraq overnight with a call for a meeting of all Iraqi factions under Arab League auspices to promote consensus on the draft constitution.

<center>Iraqi Interior Minister Bayan Jabr
called Saudi Foreign Minister Prince
Saudi al-Faisal “a Bedouin on a camel”
who presumes to teach Iraq, the cradle
of civilization, how to conduct its affairs</center>

DEBKAfile
October 3, 2005, 12:20 PM (GMT+02:00)

This was his comment Monday Sept 3 on the Saudi prince’s earlier complaint that the US had handed Iraq to Iranian influence and disintegration. He lashed out at an Arab foreign ministers meeting on Iraq in Jeddah.

Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari apologized for his colleague’s invective as “inappropriate and regrettable” and asserted he had no jurisdiction in foreign policy. Jabr denounced Saudi Arabia as “having one god, the king,” and naming a whole country after a family, as well as treating women and Shiite Muslims as second-class citizens. The Iraqi government had hoped the ministerial meeting would help draw Iraq’s Sunni Muslims into its political process, but the Iraq-Saudi exchange bodes ill for this prospect.

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=901

QueEx · Oct 4, 2005

Re: Iraq's President Calls for PM to Step Down

<center>Iraq: Rumors of a Move for Al-Zarqawi</center>

STRATFOR
Enhanced Global Intelligence Brief
October 3, 2005

Summary

Iraq's interior minister said Oct. 2 that Baghdad has learned al Qaeda in Iraq is preparing to send some of its operatives back to their Arab Middle Eastern home countries. This statement could be intended to get the mostly Sunni Arab states to get tough on militants trying to make their way to Iraq. Then again, there is evidence to suggest that al Qaeda in Iraq's chief might indeed be working on plans to expand his operational base -- or even to relocate -- should Iraq become untenable for the jihadists.

Analysis

Iraqi Interior Minister Bayan Jabor said Oct. 1 in an interview with Reuters that al Qaeda in Iraq plans to send fighters back to their home nations in preparation for militant operations in their native countries. Jabor said, "We got hold of a very important letter from Abu Azzam to [Abu Musab al-] Zarqawi asking him to begin to move a number of Arab fighters to the countries they came from to transfer their experience in car bombings in Iraq."

Jabor added that intelligence indicates some Arab militants have already left Iraq after losing ground during last month's assault by U.S. and Iraqi forces on the northern town of Tall Afar, where more than 1,500 insurgents were captured. He also said that al-Zarqawi's recruitment of Iraqi militants such as Abu Azzam indicates that more Iraqis could be joining al Qaeda in Iraq, even though many local insurgents owe their loyalties to tribal and other nationalist leaders rather than to foreign Islamists. Al-Zarqawi, Jabor said, "is no longer important in my view. His worth or importance has ended with the confusion that is happening where there are now Iraqis and others (in the insurgency)."

This statement can be seen as reflecting Jabor's specific concerns as a Shia and as a ranking member of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) -- the country's most influential Iraqi Shiite group, which not only holds the leadership of the Shia-dominated United Iraqi Alliance, but also dominated the interim Iraqi regime. In an attempt to get the mostly Sunni Arab Middle Eastern states to get tough on militant traffic moving to and from Iraq, Jabor is warning that by trying to contain the rise of Shiite and Iranian influence in Iraq, the Sunni Arab Middle Eastern governments are playing with fire, since the militants will not limit their activities to Iraq.

Such is the extent of the Shiite-Sunni tensions on this matter that Jabor a few days earlier took umbrage at remarks from Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal that Washington's policies are allowing Iran to gain control of Iraq. Jabor, whose group is the most pro-Iranian of Iraq's Shiite organizations, shot back, "We are Iraqis and we are responsible for solving our problems, we will not allow anyone to interfere. This Iraq is the cradle of civilization that taught humanity reading and writing, and some Bedouin riding a camel wants to teach us." Jabor also accused Saudi Arabia of treating millions of women and Shiite Muslims as second-class citizens. "They have one god, he is the king, he is the god, and he rules as he likes. And whole country is named after a family," he said.

All of this explains Baghdad's motivation behind issuing the statement regarding the returning militants. It is quite possible, however, that al-Zarqawi is indeed trying to get an all-Iraqi militant leadership and to elevate himself to the status of a regional warlord, where he would oversee operations in other countries. This would give him more flexibility if things should not go as planned in Iraq. There are a number of states where al-Zarqawi might be able to relocate or to expand his operations, such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Syria.

Saudi Arabia would be an ideal venue, as al-Zarqawi and his group could easily blend into the kingdom from an ethnic, cultural, and sectarian point of view. He also likely has many contacts there, given that Saudis constitute perhaps the largest contingent of foreign fighters in his organization. Moreover, the Saudi branch of al Qaeda desperately needs viable leadership capable of revitalizing the militant group after over a year of being pounded by Riyadh.

Jordan, al-Zarqawi's homeland, could represent an option as well. However, the country has become somewhat problematic for him recently, especially since he had a parting of ways with his ideological mentor, Sheikh Abu Mohammad al-Maqdisi. Amman allowed al-Maqdisi to be interviewed recently, during which he condemned the actions of al-Zarqawi in Iraq. Al-Zarqawi shot back, accusing his former mentor of selling out. The Hashemite rulers of Jordan have likely penetrated al-Zarqawi's hometown of al-Zarqa and his old network there, given that the country's intelligence apparatus has historically kept a tight lid on Islamist dissidents and militants. This perhaps is why the government has been able to nab at least two different cells in Jordan trying to stage attacks.

Syria, which al-Zarqawi purportedly uses as a conduit for the bulk of his operations, might appear to represent another potential destination. Given the current U.S. pressure on Syria, and given Damascus's involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese President Rafik al-Hariri, this could be a bad move. Allowing one's country to be used by a militant group for geopolitical objectives is one thing, but it is quite a different thing if that group begins to attack the host country -- which could well happen in Syria. Moreover, the Syrian regime is already coming under strong U.S. pressure to crack down on the jihadists. Syria is thus also not a viable option.

Whatever plans al-Zarqawi may have to expand or relocate his network, given a choice, Saudi Arabia therefore seems to be the most viable destination.

QueEx · Oct 15, 2005

Re: Iraq's President Calls for PM to Step Down

<center>Iraq: Sunnis' Split Opinions and the Constitution</center>

STRATFOR
Global Intelligence Brief
October 14, 2005

Summary

The passage of the Iraqi draft constitution in an Oct. 15 referendum seems assured. With Sunni divisions over the document intensifying just hours before the vote, opponents of the constitution will not be able to pull together enough support to defeat the document.

Analysis

On Oct. 14, offices of the Iraqi Islamic Party, a leading Islamist Sunni party, were attacked in Baghdad, Al Fallujah and Baiji. No injuries were reported, but the attacks were clearly in retaliation against the party's decision to support the draft constitution. Since the Oct. 12 deal was struck among Sunnis, Shia and Kurds to adjust the draft in an effort to bring more Sunnis into the fold, Sunnis have become consumed by internal disputes and struggle as the agreement has generated throughout the community. This effectively guarantees that the constitution will be approved in the Oct. 15 referendum.

With some Sunni groups now supporting the draft, other key groups and figures have declared that they will vote against the draft, others say they will abstain, and still more now say they are undecided at the eleventh hour. Even within the various groups and parties, leaders are proving unable to speak for all of their supposed followers, as many Sunnis now seem to be making up their own minds about the constitution regardless of what their leaders are saying.

This turns the outcome of the referendum into one of simple arithmetic. The rules of the referendum, according to article 61(C) of the Transitional Administrative Law (the country's interim charter), stipulate that the constitution will be rejected if a majority of voters or two-thirds of registered voters in three of Iraq's 18 provinces vote against it. This provision was inserted specifically to assuage Sunni concerns that they would have no means of rejecting the charter, but it also gave them essentially no margin for error. With some Sunnis set to support the draft, some to oppose it and some to abstain from voting, Sunnis opposed to the draft will be unable to assemble the necessary coalition to defeat it.

The day of the referendum will not be free from violence, but no major attacks are likely. During January's parliamentary elections, increased U.S. troop numbers and security around the country that included measures to limit vehicle traffic -- and therefore potential car bombings -- proved to be effective. Since jihadists in Iraq are weaker now than they were then, and since some Sunnis support the constitution, circumstances now are even less conducive to jihadists' attacks than they were in January.

The Oct. 12 agreement essentially postponed key questions left unanswered by negotiations over the constitution. It again ensures, however, that Sunni groups will have an opportunity to influence the document by establishing a four-month review and amendment period to follow Dec. 15 parliamentary elections that would end with another vote. While the Oct. 15 hurdle will likely be surpassed without difficulty, the arduous process of negotiating and voting is by no means over.

Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.

muckraker10021 · Oct 20, 2005

Re: Iraq's President Calls for PM to Step Down


Guys , The vote on the fraud - "a constitution" - is meaningless.
All FINAL!! decisions about Iraq emanate from the oval office in Washington DC.
The 100 Bremer orders ARE STILL IN EFFECT.

The news story about the Iraqi Orders has been virtually ignored by the U.S. press. The bush junta, via Paul Bremmer who was the head of the the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), the body that ran Iraq before the first puppet prime minister Ayad Alawi was installed issued 100 Orders that have been imposed on the people of Iraq by the U.S. government.
Click Orders below if you want to read all 100 Orders

<h2><a target="_blank" href="http://www.iraqcoalition.org/regulations/#Orders">Orders</a></h2> - are Binding Instructions or directives to the Iraqi people that create penal consequences or have a direct bearing on the way Iraqis are regulated, including changes to Iraqi law.

These orders are sometimes referred to as the Bremmer Orders. No one in the U.S. or Iraq was ever allowed to cast a vote in the ballot box for any of these Orders. These Orders SUPERSED any Iraq Constitution.

Read the article below for a NON-PROPAGANDA Reality Check about what's really going on in with America's Imperial Occupation of Iraq

<hr noshade color="#FF0000" size="14"></hr>

<img src="http://ips-dc.org/images/top.gif">

http://ips-dc.org/comment/Bennis/tp34constitution.htm

THE IRAQI CONSTITUTION: A Referendum for Disaster



October 13th 2005

by Phyllis Bennis
Institute for Policy Studies

• The constitutional process culminating in Saturday's referendum is not a sign of Iraqi sovereignty and democracy taking hold, but rather a consolidation of U.S. influence and control. Whether Iraq's draft constitution is approved or rejected, the decision is likely to make the current situation worse.

• The ratification process reflects U.S., not Iraqi urgency, and is resulting in a vote in which most Iraqis have not even seen the draft, and amendments are being reopened and negotiated by political parties and elites in Baghdad as late as four days before the planned referendum.

• The proposed constitution would strip Iraqis of future control over their nation's oil wealth by • The imposition of federalism as defined in the draft constitution undermines Iraqi national consciousness and sets the stage for a potential division of Iraq largely along ethnic and religious lines, with financial, military, and political power devolving from the central government to the regional authorities. All groups risk sectoral as well as national interests.

• Human rights, including women's rights, individual political and civil rights, economic and social • Instead of balancing the interests of Iraq's diverse population by referencing its long- dominant secular approaches, the draft constitution reflects, privileges and makes permanent the current occupation-fueled turn towards Islamic identity.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Constitutions can play a crucial role in founding and unifying new or renewing states; Iraq is no exception, and in the future drafting a constitution could play a key part in reunifying and strengthening national consciousness of the country. But this process has been imposed from outside, it is not an indigenous Iraqi process, and the draft constitution being debated is not a legitimate Iraqi product. Iraqis are still suffering under conditions of severe deprivation, violence, lack of basic necessities including clean water, electricity, jobs - crafting a new constitution does not appear high on their agenda.

The existing process of ratifying the new constitution is far more important to the Bush administration than it is to the majority of people of Iraq. Whether the proposed constitution is approved or rejected on Saturday, it is a process and a text largely crafted and imposed by U.S. occupation authorities and their Iraqi dependents, and thus lacking in legal or political legitimacy.


The most important reality is that the draft does not even mention the U.S. occupation, and neither ratification nor rejection of it will result in moving towards an end to occupation. None of the broad human rights asserted in the draft include any call to abrogate the existing laws first imposed by Paul Bremer, the U.S. pro-consul, and still in effect.

Whether it is accepted or rejected, it is likely to worsen the insecurity and violence facing Iraqis living under the U.S. occupation, and to increase the likelihood of a serious division of the country. If it passes, over significant Sunni (and other) opposition, the constitution will be viewed as an attack on Sunni and secular interests and will institutionalize powerful regional economic and military control at the expense of a weakened central government. Its extreme federalism could transform the current violent political conflict into full-blown civil war between ethnic and religious communities. If it fails, because Sunnis backed by significant secular forces, are able to mobilize enough "no" votes, the result could be a collapse of the current assembly's already weak legitimacy and capacity, and cancellation of the planned December elections. In either event, it is likely that resistance attacks will increase, not decrease. And certainly the greater violence of the U.S. military occupation will continue.

From the vantage point of the Bush administration, a "yes" vote, however slim the margin and however dubious the legitimacy, validates the claim that the occupation is setting the stage for "democratization" in Iraq; this explains the huge investment of money, political clout, and the personal involvement/interference of Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad in the drafting process. If the White House was looking for a fig leaf to cover troop withdrawals, this would be it. But there is no indication there is any such interest in beginning to bring the troops home, particularly since the referendum is unlikely to lead to any diminution of violence.

From the vantage point of the peace movement, the key issue, like that during the elections, remains that of Iraq's sovereignty and self-determination. Whatever we may think of this draft constitution, it has been essentially imposed on the Iraqi people by U.S. occupation authorities, and as such it is not legitimate. We may like parts of this draft, we may disagree with some future Iraqi-led constitutional process - but our obligation must be to call for Iraqis to control their own country and their own destiny. Once the U.S. occupation is over, and Iraqis reclaim their own nation, we will continue to build the kind of internationalist ties with women's, labor and other civil society organizations fighting for human rights in Iraq, as we have with partners in so many other countries. But while the U.S. occupation is in control, our first obligation is to work to end it.

THE REFERENDUM ON THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION

Saturday's referendum marks a key stage in the process of implementing the U.S.-designed, U.S.-imposed political process designed to give a "sovereign" gloss the continuing U.S. occupation. The process was set in place and pushed to completion by each successive U.S.-backed occupation authority in Iraq. Initial U.S. reluctance to hold early elections was overcome by pressure from Shia leader Ayatollah al-Sistani; while his support insured widespread Shia backing for the political process, it also guaranteed even greater opposition from Sunni and some secular forces.

The Bush administration has invested a huge amount of political capital in insuring the "success" of the constitution process, sacrificing for the actual content of the draft document to insure that something, almost anything, that could be called a constitution will be endorsed by a majority of Iraqis. The U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, has played an active and coercive role in pushing Iraqi political forces to participate and make concessions, and in the actual drafting of the document. The U.S. goal is to justify the claim that Iraq is "moving towards democracy" and that the post-invasion, occupied reality of Iraq in 2005 is somehow equivalent to the experience of the United States at the time of the drafting of the U.S. constitution. While numerous politicians, pundits and mainstream journalists routinely refer to the constitution's approval as the "necessary step towards ending the U.S. occupation once and for all," it actually does nothing of the sort. Despite asserting the rhetorical claim of "sovereignty" and "independence" for Iraq, the constitution as drafted makes no mention of the U.S. occupation. Even the "transition" section, while insuring the continuation of the "de-Baathification" process, support for former political prisoners and victims of terrorist attacks, and other contemporary concerns, there is no mention of the presence of the 150,000 or so U.S. and coalition troops occupying the country, and certainly no call for them to go home. The U.S.-controlled political process violates the Geneva Convention's prohibitions on an occupying power imposing political or economic changes on the occupied country. At the end of the day, the constitution leaves the U.S. occupation intact and unchallenged.

THE VOTING PROCESS

There has been large-scale opposition to the draft constitution, particular from key elements of the Sunni population. In a U.S.-prodded effort to "get the Sunnis on board," changes were negotiated between one Sunni party and the constitutional committee. Just three days before the vote, on October 12, they agreed to two changes - allowing the constitution to be amended by the new parliament scheduled to be elected in December, and limiting the "deBaathification" process to those former members of the Baath party accused of committing crimes. The announcement may persuade some additional Sunnis to vote, rather than boycott, or even to support rather than reject the constitution. But the Iraq Islamic Party is only one, and by far not the most influential, of the many Sunni-dominated political forces in Iraq, and it is unclear how influential they are or how significant the changes will be.

LIKELY RESULTS

If the voting resembles something close to an accurate referendum ("free" and "fair" are not even possibilities, given the dominance of U.S. control of the drafting and conducting a vote under military occupation) the current draft constitution is likely, though not certain, to be approved by a small majority of Iraqi voters. It remains unclear, even with the new changes, whether the majority of the Sunni population will participate and likely vote "no" on the draft, or will boycott the referendum altogether. It also is uncertain how many secular Iraqis of all religions and ethnicities may reject the constitution. There are clear indications that most Iraqis believe the constitution has been drafted in a process from which they are largely excluded; international news outlets report that most had still not seen the text only days before the referendum.

CONTROL OF IRAQI OIL

The major debates between Iraq's ethnic and religious communities, as well as between secular and Islamic approaches, sidelined any debate over crucial economic, especially oil, policy decisions in the constitution. The draft asserts that "Oil and gas is the property of all the Iraqi people in all the regions and provinces," and that the federal government will administer the oil and gas from "current fields" with the revenues to be "distributed fairly in a matter compatible with the demographic distribution all over the country." But that guarantee refers only to oil fields already in use, leaving future exploitation of almost 2/3 of Iraq's known reserves (17 of 80 known fields, 40 billion of its 115 billion barrels of known reserves), for foreign companies - because the next section of the constitution demands "the most modern techniques of market principles and encouraging investment." Further, Article 11 states explicitly that "All that is not written in the exclusive powers of the federal authorities is in the authority of the regions." That means that future exploration and exploitation of Iraq's oil wealth will remain under the control of the regional authorities where the oil lies - the Kurdish-controlled North and the Shia-dominated South, insuring a future of impoverishment for the Sunni, secular and inter-mixed populations of Baghdad and Iraq's center, and sets the stage for a future of ethnic and religious strife.

While the specifics of oil privatization are not written into the text of the draft constitution, they are consistent with the proposed Iraqi laws announced in August 2004 by the U.S.-appointed interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. He called for private companies, including foreign oil corporations, to have exclusive rights to develop new oil fields, rather than the Iraqi National Oil Company, as well as at least partial privatization of the INOC itself, thus essentially selling off Iraq's national treasure to the highest foreign corporate bidder.

FEDERALISM

The division of Iraq into three major ethnically- or religiously-defined regions or cantons remains a long-standing fear of many Iraqis and many people and governments across the region and around the world, and the most important basis for opposition to the draft constitution. In historically secular Iraq, the shift in primary identity from "Iraqi" to "Sunni" or "Shia" (although Iraqi Kurdish identity was always stronger) happened largely in response to the U.S. invasion and occupation; it does not reflect historical cultural realities. The draft constitution promotes not just federalism as a national governing structure, but an extreme version of federalism in which all power not specifically assigned to the central government devolves automatically to the regional authorities - setting the stage for a potential division of Iraq largely along ethnic and religious lines. The draft anticipates a weak national government, with financial, military, and political power all concentrated within regional authorities. The proposed constitution states directly that all powers - military, economic, political or anything else - "except in what is listed as exclusive powers of the federal authorities" are automatically reserved for the regional or provincial governments. In all those areas of regional power, the provincial governments are authorized to "amend the implementation of the federal law in the region" meaning they can ignore or override any constitutional guarantee other than foreign affairs or defense of the borders.

Besides the economic/oil conflict, this means that regional (read: religious and/or ethnic) militias accountable to political parties and/or religious leaders will be given the imprimatur of national forces. The process has already undermined Iraqi national consciousness, and sets in place risks for both national and, ironically, sectoral interests affecting each of the groups - even the most powerful.

Shia -

Iraq's Shia majority (about 60%) are the dominant force in the existing government and security agencies, and in alliance with the Kurds, dominate the constitutional drafting process. The constitution is widely understood to favor their interests, and by instituting a semblance of majority rule and according to some sources by privileging religious power within the government and court systems, it does so. But despite recent turns towards religion, many Shia remain very secular, and not all Shia want to institutionalize religious control in either regional or national governments. The federalism provisions, including the potential to establish a Shia-dominated "super-region" in the nine oil-rich provinces of the south, is also a favorite among many Shia. However, the extreme federalism has the parallel effect of largely constraining Shia control to the southern areas (however oil-rich) where they form the largest majority population, thus limiting Shia influence in the country overall. Many Shia live in Baghdad (actually the largest Shia city in Iraq) and other mixed areas outside the southern Shia-majority region. The revered Shia leader, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has spoken strongly against dividing Iraq, but the constitution sets the groundwork for exactly that.

Sunni -

Iraq's Sunni population is dominant in small areas in central Iraq including Baghdad and its environs. With the constitution's strong focus on building regional economic, political and military power, the Sunnis as a community stand to lose the most. With major economic power - read: control of oil income - resting with the regional governments, the Sunnis will suffer because the area they dominate in central Iraq is devoid of oil resources. (See "Control of Iraqi Oil" above.) Following the large-scale Sunni boycott of the June 2005 election, they are underrepresented in the national assembly, and have faced the largest proportion of exclusion from jobs, the military, and the government under the "deBaathification" process. Last-minute changes to the draft constitution, including limits on deBaathification may pacify some Sunni anger, but is unlikely to result in full-scale proportional involvement and empowerment in the post-referendum political processes.

Kurds-

Iraq's Kurdish population, about 20%, is largely (though not entirely) concentrated in the northern provinces. They have the longest history of a separate ethnic/religious identity of any of Iraq's major groups, and their search for independence or autonomy has long roots, strengthened by years of oppression by various central governments in Baghdad. Iraq's Kurdish leaders are the closest allies of the U.S. in Iraq, having provided support to the invasion and occupation even before the U.S. military attacks began. Because of U.S. protection during the 12 post-Desert Storm sanctions years, the Kurdish region also had access to more money (through an intentional distortion of the oil-for-food distribution of Iraq's oil funds), international ties through open borders to Turkey and beyond, and the development of U.S.- and other western-backed civil society institutions than any other sector of Iraq. They are by far the best prepared and the most eager for control of regional oil income (their zone includes rich northern oil fields, especially if they end up incorporating the once-Kurdish but now overwhelmingly mixed area around Kirkuk) and a weakened central government. Their regional militia, the pesh merga, are also by far the most powerful of any Iraqi military force. Some Kurdish forces, however, are already critical of the draft constitution because their oil-rich three-province region would be dwarfed by the even more oil-rich Shia-dominated nine-province region in the south.

Secular forces -

Along with Palestine, Iraq was historically the most secular of all Arab countries. The draft constitution, while vague in many details, certainly lays the groundwork for a far greater role for religious authorities in governmental and judicial institutions. Many secular Iraqis, as well as Christians, are dismayed by the privileging of Muslim clerics within the constitutional court, for example, as well as the regional empowerment that allows local/regional governments to choose sharia, or Islamic law, as the basis for some or all of its court jurisdiction rather than secular laws.

RELIGION AND HUMAN RIGHTS

Officially the draft constitution includes far-reaching protections of human rights, including a wide range of political and civil rights, and explicitly women's rights, saying that says Iraq will "respect the rule of law, reject the policy of aggression, pay attention to women and their rights, the elderly and their cares, the children and their affairs, spread the culture of diversity and defuse terrorism." Economic, social and cultural rights are explicitly protected in language far stronger than that of the U.S. constitution and Bill of Rights, or that of most other countries. But there is contradictory language as well. The draft states that "(a) No law can be passed that contradicts the undisputed rules of Islam. (b) No law can be passed that contradicts the principles of democracy. (c) No law can be passed that contradicts the rights and basic freedoms outlined in this constitution."

Whether basic freedoms will trump Islam or vice versa, and crucially, who will decide, seems a dangerous risk. Ultimately, instead of balancing the interests of Iraq's diverse Muslim majority with its once-dominant secular, the draft constitution reflects, privileges and makes permanent Iraq's current occupation-fueled turn towards Islamic identity.



<hr noshade color="#FF0000" size="14"></hr>

Greed · Nov 20, 2005

Treason charge disrupts Iraq reconciliation talks

Treason charge disrupts Iraq reconciliation talks
By Waleed Ibrahim and Mohammed Abbas
38 minutes ago

CAIRO (Reuters) - An accusation of treason in the heat of debate brought a conference of Iraqi politicians to a halt for 15 minutes in Cairo on Saturday, illustrating the delicate task mediators face keeping them all in the same room.

Members of the mainly Shi'ite Muslim United Iraq Alliance walked out of the first closed session of the three-day reconciliation meeting and threatened to leave for good if the Arab League organisers did not extract an apology.

The Arab League has arranged the conference out of alarm that Iraq, once a pillar of the Arab community, is descending into chaos and toward sectarian conflict.

A representative of the small Christian Democratic Party, named as Menas Ibrahim al-Yousifi, had called other participants traitors and said the United States had written the new Iraqi constitution, approved by referendum in October, delegates said.

"One of the guests invited by the Arab League representing the Christian Democrats went a little bit further than the norm in providing reasonable criticism," senior Iraqi Foreign Ministry official Fawz al-Hariri told reporters.

"We decided to leave the room until an apology was given and we hope that the Arab League will take further action to stop him abusing the platform... We agreed to go back," he added.

The brief crisis was the tip of an iceberg above deep currents of distrust, mainly between Iraq's Shi'ites and Kurds on one side and on the other side Sunni Muslims who say resistance to the U.S. military presence in Iraq is legitimate.

While Shi'ite and Kurdish leaders called in the public opening session for condemnations of violence by insurgents, Sunni politicians said U.S. occupation was the root of the problem and terrorism would continue until the Americans leave.

When President Jalal Talabani and Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari said some groups were beyond the pale, Sunnis accused them of trying to exclude some Iraqis from dialogue.

Talabani said religious extremists who advocate violence and associates of ousted Baathist Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had no role in the political process.

"NO PLACE FOR THE BAATH"

"Our national unity ... does not include under any circumstance the murderers and criminals among the followers of the old regime, who left us mass graves, or among the takfiris (Muslims who call other Muslims infidels)," he said.

"We have drawn a red line. There is no place for the Baath in Iraq... This is an Iraqi reality," added Jaafari.

Harith al-Dhari, Sunni head of the Muslim Clerics' Association, said: "I was sorry to hear what I heard from the prime minister, whose speech let down hopes of understanding ... because it clearly contained a spirit of exclusion."

The Arab League organisers and the Egyptian hosts also preached the virtues of inclusion as a way to prevent Iraq sliding further toward a sectarian civil war.

On the contentious issue of political violence, in which many thousands of Iraqis have died, Jaafari said killing children, as in many suicide bombings, was not resistance.

But Dhari said: "Armed resistance arose as a reaction to occupation. It is legitimate and is not an innovation. The popular support which the insurgents enjoy in many parts of the country exceeds that which they enjoyed a year ago."

Dhari called for a firm timetable for U.S. and British withdrawal and dismissed the government's arguments for allowing them to stay while Iraqi forces build up their strength.

He also accused the Iraqi government's forces of adopting the same techniques as U.S. forces -- detaining innocent people without charge and torturing them in secret locations.

The discovery of a secret detention center run by the Shi'ite-led Interior Ministry in Baghdad this week added to the tension at the meeting, which is meant to prepare for a wider political conference in Baghdad next year.

But in a rare sign of compromise, Dhari and a representative of the Shi'te Badr Organization promised after a meeting to cooperate in an investigation of the detention center.

The Badr official, Hadi al-Amri, told Dhari: "If you have proof, we are ready to work with you to reach a result with you." He was quoted by delegate Emad Mohammed Ali. "In that case, we are ready too," Dhari replied.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051120...YVZ.3QA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

Greed · Nov 22, 2005

Iraqi Leaders Call for Pullout Timetable

Iraqi Leaders Call for Pullout Timetable
By SALAH NASRAWI, Associated Press Writer
1 hour, 15 minutes ago

CAIRO, Egypt - Reaching out to the Sunni Arab community, Iraqi leaders called for a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S.-led forces and said Iraq's opposition had a "legitimate right" of resistance.

The communique — finalized by Shiite, Kurdish and Sunni leaders Monday — condemned terrorism but was a clear acknowledgment of the Sunni position that insurgents should not be labeled as terrorists if their operations do not target innocent civilians or institutions designed to provide for the welfare of Iraqi citizens.

The leaders agreed on "calling for the withdrawal of foreign troops according to a timetable, through putting in place an immediate national program to rebuild the armed forces ... control the borders and the security situation" and end terror attacks.

The preparatory reconciliation conference, held under the auspices of the Arab League, was attended by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Iraqi Shiite and Kurdish lawmakers as well as leading Sunni politicians.

Sunni leaders have been pressing the Shiite-majority government to agree to a timetable for the withdrawal of all foreign troops. The statement recognized that goal, but did not lay down a specific time — reflecting instead the government's stance that Iraqi security forces must be built up first.

On Monday, Iraqi Interior Minister Bayan Jabr suggested U.S.-led forces should be able to leave Iraq by the end of next year, saying the one-year extension of the mandate for the multinational force in Iraq by the U.N. Security Council this month could be the last.

"By the middle of next year we will be 75 percent done in building our forces and by the end of next year it will be fully ready," he told the Arab satellite station Al-Jazeera.

Debate in Washington over when to bring troops home turned bitter last week after decorated Vietnam War vet Rep. John Murtha (news, bio, voting record), D-Pa., called for an immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, and estimated a pullout could be complete within six months. Republicans rejected Murtha's position.

In Egypt, the final communique's attempt to define terrorism omitted any reference to attacks against U.S. or Iraqi forces. Delegates from across the political and religious spectrum said the omission was intentional. They spoke anonymously, saying they feared retribution.

"Though resistance is a legitimate right for all people, terrorism does not represent resistance. Therefore, we condemn terrorism and acts of violence, killing and kidnapping targeting Iraqi citizens and humanitarian, civil, government institutions, national resources and houses of worships," the document said.

The final communique also stressed participants' commitment to Iraq's unity and called for the release of all "innocent detainees" who have not been convicted by courts. It asked that allegations of torture against prisoners be investigated and those responsible be held accountable.

The statement also demanded "an immediate end to arbitrary raids and arrests without a documented judicial order."

The communique included no means for implementing its provisions, leaving it unclear what it will mean in reality other than to stand as a symbol of a first step toward bringing the feuding parties together in an agreement in principle.

"We are committed to this statement as far as it is in the best interests of the Iraqi people," said Harith al-Dhari, leader of the powerful Association of Muslim Scholars, a hard-line Sunni group. He said he had reservations about the document as a whole, and delegates said he had again expressed strong opposition to the concept of federalism enshrined in Iraq's new constitution.

The gathering was part of a U.S.-backed league attempt to bring the communities closer together and assure Sunni Arab participation in a political process now dominated by Iraq's Shiite majority and large Kurdish minority.

The conference also decided on broad conditions for selecting delegates to a wider reconciliation gathering in the last week of February or the first week of March in Iraq. It essentially opens the way for all those who are willing to renounce violence against fellow Iraqis.

Shiites had been strongly opposed to participation in the conference by Sunni Arab officials from the former Saddam regime or from pro-insurgency groups. That objection seemed to have been glossed over in the communique.

The Cairo meeting was marred by differences between participants at times, and at one point Shiite and Kurdish delegates stormed out of a closed session when one of the speakers said they had sold out to the Americans.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051122/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_conference

QueEx · Dec 5, 2005

Re: Iraqi Leaders Call for Pullout Timetable

<center>Tensions between Shiite factions
in Iraq ratchet higher

long-simmering antagonism between the secular, tough-talking
Mr. Allawi and [Muqtada al-Sadr's] religious Shiites
ahead of the Dec. 15 elections</center>

Monday, December 05, 2005
By Borzou Daragahi and Saad Fakhrildeen, Los Angeles Times

NAJAF, Iraq -- One of Iraq's most prominent politicians and his entourage were pelted with rocks and shoes yesterday as they left a shrine, escalating tensions between religious and secular Shiite Muslim factions 11 days before parliamentary elections that will set the country's course for the next four years.

Ayad Allawi, the former interim prime minister now leading a major political coalition, said he and his bodyguards were attacked with gunfire in an assassination attempt outside the Imam Ali Shrine in this Euphrates River city, a claim disputed by local authorities.

Mr. Allawi and his deputies suggested that supporters of radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who is aligned with rival Shiite coalition the United Iraqi Alliance, had planned the attack. Mr. Sadr's aides brushed aside Mr. Allawi's accusations.

The incident highlighted long-simmering antagonism between the secular, tough-talking Mr. Allawi and religious Shiites ahead of the Dec. 15 elections. Mr. Allawi's ideologically far-flung coalition of democratic liberals and former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party is vying with the United Iraqi Alliance's clergy-led list of Islamic political parties for votes among the nation's Shiite majority.

In the capital yesterday, two U.S. soldiers were killed when a roadside bomb struck their vehicle convoy in a southeastern section of city. A roadside bomb also killed two civilians in a downtown square. And in separate incidents throughout Baghdad, gunmen assassinated a police lieutenant colonel, an army major, two police officers, a university professor and a Shiite cleric loyal to Mr. Sadr.

As tensions built ahead of the third session of Saddam's trial today, an Iraqi government official said one of the country's best-known insurgent groups planned to attack the building during the court session. Saddam and seven co-defendants are accused in the 1982 killing of more than 140 Shiites after an assassination attempt against the president in Dujail.

A statement released yesterday by the office of Mouwaffak al-Rubaie, Iraq's national security adviser, said the 1920 Revolution Brigades, one of the country's best-known insurgent groups, planned to attack the building during the court session.

The statement said Iraqi intelligence uncovered the plot but gave no further details, including whether anyone had been arrested.

One of the trial's five judges, meanwhile, stepped down because one of the co-defendants may have been involved in the execution of his brother, a court official said yesterday. The judge's name was not released because under security rules, the identities of all panel members are kept secret except for Chief Judge Rizgar Mohammed Amin.

The revelations underscored the security issues and complications that have dogged the proceedings since the outset.

Yesterday's melee in Najaf erupted after Mr. Allawi prayed at the shrine, which houses the tomb of the prophet Muhammad's cousin and son-in-law and is widely considered the most sacred Islamic site in Iraq.

As a crowd of between 50 and 70 men hit Mr. Allawi with rocks as well as footwear, the latter an act considered a dreadful insult by Iraqis and Muslims, his bodyguards surrounded him, fired weapons into the air to disperse a gathering mob and hustled him to safety. He was escorted to a U.S. military base north of Najaf before taking him to the capital, said an Allawi representative in Najaf.

Speaking before television cameras in Baghdad after the incident, an angry Mr. Allawi suggested those responsible for the melee were linked to the same elements that killed moderate Shiite cleric Abdul Majid Khoei in Najaf following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Iraqi authorities have alleged in the past that Mr. Sadr had a hand in the assassination, though he has never been arrested.

Mr. Allawi said the attackers, captured on videotape, also wore black, as do members of the Al Mahdi army, a militia loyal to Mr. Sadr.

Saheb Ameri, head of a Najaf cultural institute controlled by Mr. Sadr, said the clerics' followers had nothing to do with yesterday's incident.

Mr. Allawi, who at one time had ties to U.S. and British intelligence, called on local and national authorities to investigate the attack, in which he said he avoided assassination only because one of the assailants fumbled his weapon.

---------------
(The Associated Press contributed to this report.)

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05339/617430.stm

QueEx · Dec 5, 2005

More Iraqis to vote secular ???

<center>More Iraqis look to vote secular Dec. 15
Many see the nonsectarian parties as
the best alternative for a unified and stable Iraq.</center>

SECULAR VOICE: Tired of sectarian
violence, more Iraqis appear to be
turning to secular parties like the
one led by former Iraqi Prime Minister
Iyad Allawi. THAIER AL-SUDANI/REUTERS

By Howard LaFranchi | Staff writer
The Christian Science Monitor
December 5, 2005

BAGHDAD – Best friends Ali Zaydun and Jamal Hammudi have been playing dominoes on Friday nights for years. But now Ali is unable to visit his friend's house, because the Sunni Al Dora neighborhood is unsafe for the two Shiites (whose last names have been changed to protect their identities).
Ali seethes at "a situation we never had before in Iraq," and says he blames the country's Shiite-dominated government. As a result, the young computer programmer supports the secular alliance of former prime minister Ayad Allawi in upcoming national elections. "Believe me," he says, "I hope every day Allawi can win and make one Iraq instead of all these separations of the people."

Like Ali, more Iraqis appear to be turning to one of the Dec. 15 election's secular parties as the best alternative for a unified and stable Iraq. Mostly it's better educated Iraqis or those from smaller ethnic groups who are making this choice, so their prospects for equaling the voting power of Iraqis following the electoral directives of religious leaders remains unclear.

But some of Iraq's top leaders say that the single most important choice Iraqis will make in the December vote will be between a secular and modernizing government and a religious-based one. The fact that Iraqis will be choosing their first permanent four-year government since Saddam Hussein's fall only adds to the significance, they say.

"This contest between the secular and religious visions of government is really the main choice to be made," says Adnan Pachachi, a prominent Sunni statesman who has joined Mr. Allawi's Iraqi National list. "It won't be decided in one election, but it is a basic choice between an open and progressive Iraq and one that is backward and continues to fall behind."

"Yes, there is an Islamic identity to the people of Iraq and their history," he adds. "But the question is if we will be Islamic in identity and modern and open, or more like countries where religion plays a more important governing role, like Iran, Afghanistan under the Taliban, and Saudi Arabia. Those examples are not very inspiring."

Allawi - a secular Sunni and former Baathist turned Saddam opponent and CIA favorite, before being named prime minister in July 2004 - would appear to face an uphill battle. As prime minister he governed during intense battles in Fallujah, Najaf and Baghdad's poor Sadr City slum, infuriating some key groups. His government was also accused of corruption.

Only 14 percent in January

In January's elections for a provisional government, Allawi only scored about 14 percent of the vote - compared with 51 percent for the "Shiite House" coalition that eventually formed the government that rules today.

The new government coming out of this month's elections will have to be able to win a two-thirds vote of the new parliament to be installed.

No one expects any one group to win even a majority of seats.

And even if the governing Shiite coalition registers a decline in support as anticipated, no one expects them to fall below a third - which means Allawi would have to attract moderate Shiite support in the new parliament to be named prime minister.

But observers say Allawi has several factors going for him now - in addition to the growing fears of rising sectarianism.

First, the nine-month-old government has disappointed even many Shiites, who find it has been incompetent and unable to even begin addressing Iraqis' key concerns of security and employment.

Second, the country's sizable Sunni minority has been registering in large numbers and is expected to vote this time around, unlike in January when they largely sat out the vote.

The dire and unchanged lack of security for average Iraqis will likely encourage voters to favor someone they consider to be a strongman, and that will help Allawi, some experts say.

"Some people associate Mr. Allawi with strength, so that and the fact that he does not talk like a sectarian may convince people he is better than the others," says Nabeal Younis, a senior lecturer in public policy at Baghdad University.

Allawi has his enemies

Mr. Younis also says that one of the reasons some Iraqis see Allawi as a strongman - the battles for major cities that occurred during his government - will also hurt him.

"People don't forget his attacks on Fallujah and Najaf and Sadr City," says Younis.

Indeed, during a visit to the Shiite holy city of Najaf Sunday, Allawi said that about 60 men armed with pistols, knives, and swords planned to attack him.

He said the attempt was made while he was performing prayers at the Shrine of Imam Ali, one of the Shiites' holiest in Iraq.

"They were planning to kill the whole delegation, or at least me," Allawi told reporters shortly after he arrived back in Baghdad.

Footage shown on television stations showed Allawi running from the shrine as shoes and stones were thrown at him.

Younis also points out that Allawi's connection to the American occupation remains a liability.

"People don't want the influence of Iran, which is why they are turning away from the current government," he says, "but they also don't want someone who is working for the American occupation."

If Sunnis vote in large numbers, says Younis, himself a Sunni assisting a list of Sunni candidates, it will be "as a way to precipitate the end of the occupation."

But Younis says Iraqis will also be voting for a unified Iraq, for a true national army and not an army consisting of party and tribal militias as he says now exists. And if that is indeed motivating Iraqis, it would seem to help Allawi, who emphasizes national unity over party and secular identification.

Allawi justifies the battle of Fallujah - which was actually decided by American forces - by insisting that it was actually Fallujans who implored him to do something about the strengthening dictatorship of Islamist extremists, foreign and national, in their city.

Allawi supporters also point out that such battles (both in Sunni Fallujah and Shiite Najaf, for example) were really about restoring central-government order over sectarian rebellions. It's an explanation that appears to play well with many nationalist Iraqis.

At the same time, Allawi emphasizes that the ministers in his government were not selected by him but as part of a political balancing act performed by the Americans.

Still, not all of the Dec. 15 election's secularists have joined the Allawi fold.

"I told [Allawi] that history will remember his government for the attacks [on rebellious Iraqi cities] and for the terrible corruption," says Hatem Mukhis, secretary general of the secular Iraqi National Movement and a Sunni. "But this [current] government has been even more corrupt, so that their atrocities and human rights violations have managed to obliterate the dark image of the Allawi government."

Still, like Mr. Pachachi, he says this election will decide the "tilt" of Iraq. And since he says another "religious government" would be "the worst disaster we face," he would consider having his movement join an Allawi coalition after the elections.

Strong national army

Another factor uniting Iraq's secularists is an insistence that Iraq develop a strong national army - and not an army of militias with party or tribal loyalties. That is the only way Iraq will be able to solve the problem of the occupation and avoid civil war, they say.

"No one believes we have a national army now, it is only a collection of militias with differing loyalties," says Younis. "Only by bringing back a true national army will we be able to have a unified Iraq."

Pachachi agrees, placing Iraqi unity under one national army just under secular governance in importance. "It won't be a question of how well-trained or well-equipped the army is but one of the authority it serves," he says.

"If the security forces continue to be dominated as they are now by political groups or sects, then the people won't trust in them - and the result will be civil war or fragmentation of the country," says Pachachi.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1205/p01s04-woiq.html

Greed · Dec 6, 2005

Re: More Iraqis to vote secular ???

More Iraqis look to vote secular Dec. 15
Many see the nonsectarian parties as
the best alternative for a unified and stable Iraq.

thats interesting, i cant wait to see how people turn this into a bad and all is lost thing.

muckraker10021 · Dec 7, 2005

You guys keep focusing on the sham elections.
The real issue is Iraqi sovereignty.


The reason for the Invasion & Occupation of Iraq was to seize control of Iraq’s oil from the Chinese, Russians & “Old Europe”.

Saddam had $$$ Billions of dollars in contracts with the Chinese, Russians & “Old Europe” to get his oil pumping at full throttle.

In 1999 Dick Cheney as CEO of Halliburton was advocating that sanctions against "rogue" nations Iraq, Iran and Libya be ended. In the July 26, 2000, Washington Post, Cheney complained that sanctions "are nearly always motivated by domestic political pressure, & the need for Congress to appeal to some domestic constituency."

In fact the reason no WMD’s were found in Iraq was that Saddam knew that once the UN gave him a clean bill on the WMD. He could start pumping oil full throttle with his Chinese, Russians & “Old Europe” partners.

The US & Britain would be SHUT OUT of the biggest OIL bonanza in decades.

IRAQ POSSIBLY HAS MORE OIL THAN SAUDI ARABIA.

The US invaded using the bogus pretext of WMD’s in order to seize the OIL for US Multinationals – ExxonMobil, Chevron , Conoco, Shell and BP America, etc.

In a interview in Vanity Fair in May 2003, the deputy secretary of state for defense, Paul Wolfowitz, acknowledged that putting WMD at the heart of the argument for military action was a pretext to create harmony between different branches of the American government, rather than a genuine concern.

These were the firms who were participants in Cheney’s White House Energy Task Force which met before the Invasion. At that meeting maps of Iraq were put on the desk and drilling territories were discussed. This is why Cheney went all the way to the Supreme Court to block the transcript of this meeting from being released.

There will be NO IRAQI SOVEREIGNTY.
There is too much OIL to be had.


<hr noshade color="#FF0000" size="14"></hr>

<img src="http://ips-dc.org/images/top.gif">

http://ips-dc.org

December 2005


The Iraqi government was unable to challenge Washington (they were told no directly by Vice-President Cheney) on the recently approved Constitution. The Iraqi government wanted the inclusion of a provision prohibiting the 14 military bases that the pentagon is building and a provision ending US control & management of the oil industry—These are the two crucial markers of genuine sovereignty.

Without Iraqi control over their own oil and military bases, they are nothing more that another US puppet sham government. As of December 2005 all the “Bremer Orders” are still in effect.



Click Orders below if you want to read all 100 Orders

<h2><a target="_blank" href="http://www.iraqcoalition.org/regulations/#Orders">Orders</a></h2> - are Binding Instructions or directives to the Iraqi people that create penal consequences or have a direct bearing on the way Iraqis are regulated, including changes to Iraqi law.

These orders are sometimes referred to as the Bremer Orders. No one in the U.S. or Iraq was ever allowed to cast a vote in the ballot box for any of these Orders. These Orders SUPERSED any Iraq Constitution.

Greed · Dec 7, 2005

there we go

QueEx · Dec 10, 2005

<center>In Iraqi election, tribal vote is precious</center>

By Michael Georgy and Omar al-Ibadi
December 10, 2005

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's rulers have long sought the loyalty of the country's influential Arab tribes, so politicians contesting elections are making plenty of promises to their leaders -- proud men like Adel Abbas.

It is a tough sell.

Sitting in his house in a neighbourhood of western Baghdad where kidnappings, murder and bombings never let up, he has yet to see a strong Iraqi leader from the present crop who can deliver security and gain his respect.

"There are many killings here. Shi'ite militiamen with the government often kidnap Sunnis and kill them," said Abbas, a Sunni Muslim, repeating a much-denied allegation that the new Shi'ite majority government condones death squads targeting the minority that dominated Iraq under Saddam Hussein.

"That is all we have seen for more than two years. We just hope someone can come along and change this but we just don't know."

With Iraq in danger of sliding into sectarian conflict, the 150 main tribes to which most Iraqis owe some allegiance are seen as a force that can promote politicians and help stabilise the country after parliamentary elections on Dec. 15.

Largely brought to Iraq by Bedouin migrants from the Arabian peninsula, tribes are held together by blood ties and a strict code of honour, not sectarian identities. With intermarriage common, many tribes include both Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims.

Abbas is a Sunni but many of the people who follow his lead as a top leader of the nationwide Azzawi tribe are Shi'ites.

Iraq's rulers, from the Ottoman Turks and British to Saddam Hussein sought the tribes' support, making the opinions of tribal leaders a barometer of a government's popularity.

In spite of his powerful intelligence agencies, former president Saddam always treated tribes with caution. He was ruthless with those who betrayed him and generous to loyal ones, providing cash, weapons and jobs in the army.

HEARTLAND OF REVOLT

These days, Iraqi politicians publicise meetings with tribal leaders, especially in Anbar province, heartland of the Sunni Arab revolt against the Kurdish- and Shi'ite-led government.

However, after spending many years in exile in the United States, Britain and Iran, most of Iraq's leaders are struggling to win the loyalty of inward-looking tribes, who see revenge on the U.S. occupiers, or on each other, as a matter of honour.

A respect for toughness in the tribal codes means any future national leader will have to be firm to win respect from many of the traditional tribal leaders, whose word still holds particular sway in rural areas.

"The government isn't up to the challenges it faces, and is too weak. We need a strong government to handle the lack of security and rebuild Iraq," said Imaad al-Fatlawi, the sheikh of the Fatla tribe in the town of Diwaniya south of Baghdad.

"Iraq is moving the opposite way so the new government has to be more loyal to Iraqis."

Abbas' mixed tribe fiercely backed Saddam's Sunni-dominated administration. Now he is telling his people to keep an open mind when they vote.

That is encouraging for Washington, which hopes democracy can undermine guerrillas who have killed tens of thousands of security forces and civilians.

So far, Abbas and other tribal leaders have seen no evidence that U.S.-backed politicians with slick Western-style election advertisements or religious candidates who make pledges in mosques can deliver stability, basic services or jobs.

However, some tribal leaders are cautiously optimistic.

'UNITED AND SOVEREIGN'

"I believe the election could bring a change in the political situation," said sheikh Atella Mahdi Lohaimos, 61, of the Jobor tribe, who heads a Shi'ite list allied with Sunnis in the central town of Hilla. "We need to have this country free and united and sovereign."

Many Iraqis would say that is wishful thinking.

Iraqi security forces are not expected to take on guerrillas on their own in the near future without U.S. troops, whose continued presence infuriates tribal leaders bound by ancient codes to resist invasion and who are traditionally a catalyst for either loyalty to or uprisings against rulers in Baghdad.

Unrest which eventually led to an insurgent takeover of Falluja last year was closely linked to opinion among local tribes, who took revenge every time U.S. troops attacked one of their members and allowed guerrillas, including a smattering of foreigners allied to al Qaeda, to move freely in their city.

So it is in the interests of Iraq's future leaders to have tribes on their side as they try to improve security. There have been signs that tribal chiefs are turning against al Qaeda.

Sunni tribesmen came to the rescue of Shi'ite neighbours in Anbar towns after they were attacked by Sunni extremists loyal to the al Qaeda leader in Iraq, Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

It is hard to gauge how tribesmen will vote but it seems sectarian violence tearing through Iraq's social fabric will push some toward the secular, cross-sectarian list headed by former prime minister Iyad Allawi, a tough-talking, U.S.-backed Shi'ite with appeal among both Shi'ites and Sunnis.

Abbas, whose word carries weight in the rebellious Jihad neighbourhood near Baghdad airport, said: "I think people in my tribe are leaning towards Allawi."

http://thestaronline.com/news/story...01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_-227333-2&sec=Worldupdates

QueEx · Dec 13, 2005

<center>Islamic Extremists: Iraqi Vote 'Satanic'</center>

Dec 12, 11:00 PM (ET)
Associated Press
By PATRICK QUINN

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Soldiers, patients and prisoners began voting Monday in national elections, three days ahead of the general population, while insurgents denounced the balloting as a "satanic project" but did not threaten to attack polling stations.

The early voting went ahead despite the sound of detonations rumbling across the capital and at least 15 deaths in ongoing violence.

President Bush offered encouraging words from Washington to Iraqi voters but cautioned that the parliamentary elections "won't be perfect."

"Iraqis still have more difficult work ahead, and our coalition and a new Iraqi government will face many challenges," the president said in a speech in Philadelphia.

Asked about the number of Iraqi casualties from the war and the insurgency, Bush said: "I would say 30,000, more or less, have died as a result of the initial incursion and the ongoing violence against Iraqis." White House counselor Dan Bartlett later said the number was not an official figure but that Bush was simply repeating public estimates reported in the media.

In a rare joint statement, Al-Qaida in Iraq and four other Islamic extremist groups denounced the election as a "satanic project" and said that "to engage in the so-called political process" violates "the legitimate policy approved by God."

The groups vowed to "continue our jihad (holy war) ... to establish an Islamic state ruled by the book (the Quran) and the traditions of the Prophet Muhammad."

However, the statement contained no clear threat to disrupt voting as in the run-up to the Jan. 30 election and the Oct. 15 referendum on the constitution.

The authenticity of the statement could not be verified, but it appeared on a Web site that often publishes extremist material.

The absence of a clear-cut threat could reflect the growing interest among Sunni Arabs, the foundation of the insurgency, to take part in the election. The Sunni decision to boycott the January ballot left parliament in the hands of Shiites and Kurds - a move which increased communal friction and cost the Sunnis considerable influence in drafting the constitution.

A leaflet that appeared Monday in the Baghdad Sunni stronghold of Azamiyah acknowledged that Sunni Arabs could make gains in the election but that "fighting will continue with the infidels and their followers."

The statement was unsigned but was written in a style favored by Islamic extremists.

U.S. officials hope for a large turnout among the disaffected Sunni Arab minority, a development which could produce a government capable of winning the trust of the Sunnis and defusing the insurgency. That would enable U.S. and other foreign troops to begin heading home next year.

"Many Sunnis are campaigning vigorously for office this time around," Bush said. "Many Sunni parties that opposed the constitution have registered to compete in this week's vote."

In the Sunni insurgent stronghold of Ramadi, hooded men carrying assault rifles erected campaign posters.

The men, who claimed to be insurgents, raised a large banner supporting a Sunni Arab candidate. Standing next to them was a man, wearing no mask and carrying no weapon, holding up a poster for other Sunni candidates.

"Elect them for the sake of defending the rights of the Iraqi population," the first banner said. "They have pure hands," said the second.

In the first day of early voting, about 250,000 Iraqis - soldiers, police, hospital patients and prisoners - cast ballots, according to election official Abdul-Hussein Hendawi. Iraqi television aired footage showing inmates in orange jumpsuits depositing their ballots in jailhouse boxes.

The U.S.-led multinational force said 90 percent of all eligible detainees held in facilities under its control participated in the vote. It did not release the number represented by that percentage. Suspected insurgents held in detention but not convicted were eligible to vote, officials said.

Deposed leader Saddam Hussein, who is jailed and facing trial for the deaths of more than 140 Shiites in 1982, could also vote, but it was not know if he did.

Abroad, an estimated 1.5 million expatriate Iraqis will begin voting Tuesday over a two-day period in polling centers in 15 countries including the United States.

Most of the 15 million registered voters go to the polls Thursday.

Sunni Arab politicians have promised an end to what they term abuse at the hands of the Shiite-dominated security services. As voting began, the Human Rights Ministry and the U.S. military said that 13 prisoners were hospitalized after being found at an overcrowded prison run by the Shiite-led Interior Ministry.

Later Monday, Al-Jazeera television aired a video allegedly showing abuse at another Interior Ministry facility in western Baghdad. The footage showed dozens of men, many with welts and bruises. The station did not say how it obtained the footage or when the alleged incidents took place.

Bush said Iraqi prisoners held in secret detention centers apparently were beaten and tortured.

"This conduct is unacceptable," Bush said in the Philadelphia speech. "Those who committed these crimes must be held to account."

Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a Shiite, ordered an investigation into what he described as an "unhealthy phenomenon." A similar case also surfaced last month.

"I will not allow such treatment of any prisoner," al-Jaafari said during a news conference.

U.S. and Iraqi officials have expected an upsurge in insurgent violence as the election approaches.

A U.S. soldier was killed Monday in a bombing in Baghdad, and another American soldier attached to the Marines died the day before in a suicide bombing west of the capital near the city of Ramadi, the U.S. command said.

The deaths brought to at least 2,144 the number of U.S. military members killed in Iraq since the war began in 2003, according to an Associated Press count.

Most Iraqis disapprove of the presence of U.S. forces in their country, yet they are optimistic about Iraq's future and their own personal lives, according to a new poll.

More than two-thirds of those surveyed oppose the presence of troops from the United States and its coalition partners and less than half, 44 percent, say their country is better off now than it was before the war, according to an ABC News poll conducted with Time magazine and other media partners.

Three-quarters say they are confident about the parliamentary elections, and more than two-thirds expect things in their country to get better in the coming months. But only a third in the Sunni regions were optimistic about their country's future.

http://apnews1.iwon.com//article/20051213/D8EF4ERG9.html?PG=home&SEC=news

QueEx · Dec 15, 2005

<center>Iraq: Election Day</center>

STRATFOR
Global Intelligence Brief

Summary

Iraq will hold general elections Dec. 15 to elect its first noninterim post-Saddam Hussein government. There are essentially five main groups competing in the polls: a Shiite Islamist coalition, a main Sunni union, a Kurdish alliance and two secular lists. The electoral design of the still-emerging Iraqi political system makes a Shiite-dominated coalition government an inevitability.

Analysis

Fifteen million registered Iraqi voters out of a total population of some 27 million will have the opportunity Dec. 15 to cast their ballots to elect the country's first noniterim post-Saddam Hussein parliament in the wake of the Oct. 15 ratification of the Iraqi Constitution.

After being installed, the 275-member legislature will elect a presidency council consisting of a president and two vice presidents; filling these posts requires the votes of two-thirds of the legislature. In turn, the president will call on the biggest bloc in parliament to name a prime minister, whose approval requires only a simple parliamentary majority. The prime minister will subsequently nominate a Cabinet. Iraq's constitution sets a deadline of Dec. 31 for the new legislature to assume office.

The election's main competition will take place among five electoral coalitions: the 18-party Shiite-Islamist-dominated United Iraqi Alliance (UIA); the eight-party Kurdistani Gathering; the main Sunni grouping, known as the Tawafoq Iraqi Front, which is composed of three parties; former interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's 15-party nonsectarian National Iraqi List; and the National Iraqi Council list, a union of ten parties led by controversial Iraqi politician Ahmed Chalabi.

Considering the constitutional engineering involved in fashioning the new Iraqi political system, and looking at what happened in Iraq's Jan. 30 interim ballot, the election will produce a mixed parliament -- and hence a coalition government. Demographics and politics, however, will ensure that the ruling UIA will emerge as the single largest group in parliament, which will then form a coalition government. The objective of stability will guarantee that the emerging government includes not just the Kurdistani Gathering coalition, but a significant Sunni presence as well, which will mostly come from the Tawafoq Iraqi Front.

Allawi's National Iraqi List will, once again, likely not be part of the government despite its efforts to serve as a secular -- as opposed to sectarian -- Iraqi nationalist platform; it is nevertheless expected to gain a number of seats.

Chalabi's National Iraqi Council List will likely align itself with the UIA-led coalition in exchange for a number of Cabinet positions, possibly including the post of prime minister. Even though he is competing in the polls on his own separate ticket, Chalabi maintains close ties to several other groups: the UIA; the Iraqi clerical establishment, led by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani; the common patron of Chalabi, the UIA, and al-Sistani, namely Iran; and the Bush administration. With interim Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari's popularity suffering, and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq candidate for prime minister -- outgoing Vice President Adel Abdel Mahdi -- lacking the required support, Chalabi could emerge as the compromise candidate for prime minister. His secular credentials could come in handy to offset Sunni, Kurdish and U.S. concerns about an Islamist prime minister with close ties to Tehran. In any case, the negotiations will be intense, given that the Sunnis will add to the complexity of an already convoluted process.

Between the need to revisit Iraq's constitution (due to an agreement between the three principal Iraqi groups prior to the Oct. 15 constitutional referendum), the continuing insurgency and the growing demands for a full U.S. withdrawal (which is unlikely to happen anytime soon), Iraq's future coalition government will come into office with a full agenda on its hands.

QueEx · Dec 15, 2005

<center>Secret US Diplomacy
Brings Hoped-for Sunni Turnout</center>

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis
December 14, 2005, 8:40 PM (GMT+02:00)

For the first since the US-led invasion of March 2003, post-Saddam Iraq stands on the threshold of a genuine tipping point. This is because the Sunni Arabs have finally made up their minds to vote in the Dec. 15 election for the 275-seat National Assembly that will determine the shape of Iraq’s regime.

In the last of his four Strategy for Victory speeches on Iraq, President George W. Bush Wednesday, Dec. 14, noted that at last Sunnis are campaigning vigorously in this week’s general election.

Sunni leaders have accepted that boycotts of the election a year ago for a transitional assembly and the October referendum on a new constitution were a mistake. This time, polling stations in Ramadi, capital of the Sunni-dominated Anbar province, which did not bother to open in October, collected balloting materials in good time.

The new legislature will be charged with creating a government to replace the transitional administration serving at present. Voters will be able to choose 275 deputies from among 231 contending parties and their 7,655 candidates

To generate a relatively secure environment for Iraq’s 15 million eligible voters, the government has sealed the country’s borders and banned road and air traffic. US troops are deployed in force on the leaky borders from Syria to hold down hostile incursions. Several Islamic terrorist groups, including al Qaeda in Ira and the Islamic Army in Iraq, promised not to disrupt the voting, although that is no guarantee of non-violence by any means.

While Iraq’s feet are treading the road to democracy as a nation, little has improved in the lives of Iraqis as individuals. The level of terrorist violence is higher than ever, Shiite-Sunni rivalries are acute; hundreds of cases of abuses have been uncovered in at least two detention centers under the aegis of the Shiite-led interior ministry where Sunni prisoners were held in subhuman conditions. This was confirmed two days before voting by US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, who promised the American government would accelerate the investigation to determine who was responsible.

Furthermore, the Kurds of northern Iraq are quietly pressing ahead with the building of a semi-autonomous enclave based on a grab for the region’s oil riches. Despite the optimistic forecasts coming from Bush administration officials, the New Iraqi Army is taking shape far too slowly for any informed party to venture a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops.

The massive deployment of many thousands of Iranian sleeper cells across Iraq provides a sinister backdrop to overt events in Iraq. Although warned off, Tehran is liable to activate those cells at a time and in a manner of its choosing – without notice.

Already, according to DEBKAfile’s sources, Iranian agents are extending substantial logistical aid to Abu Musab al Zarqawi’s al Qaeda in Iraq, to some of the Sunni insurgent groups and to radical Shiite militias.

Even Saddam Hussein’s trial, which alongside the general election was meant to symbolize Iraq’s transition from a corrupt, repressive tyranny, to a stable, enlightened democracy, was a flop that was played out publicly to the Iraqi people and Arab world.

Despite all these tribulations, DEBKAfile points to some hopeful signs.

1. The expected Sunni Muslim voter turnout is the brightest prospect. They have come to acknowledge that their earlier boycotts cost them missed chances. Had they voted en masse, they might have thrown out the constitution devised by the Shiite-Kurdish coalition. Now they are going after a solid Sunni share in the institutions that govern the country.

2. The National Reconciliation Conference that took place in Cairo in October at the initiative of the Arab League and behind-the-scenes US blessing, opened up a quiet diplomatic channel for American diplomats in Iraq led by ambassador Khalilzad to talk with a group of Iraqi Baathist Sunni insurgent leaders.

DEBKAfile’s sources in Iraq reveal the gist of Sunni position as it emerged from those talks:

A. We are not fighting simply for the sake of spilling blood. We will give up on bloody violence if we are convinced that the occupation will come to an end.

B. We do not claim exclusivity in representing the Sunni Arab interest and are prepared to work with fellow Sunni groupings on equal terms.

C. We accept a multi-communal, multi-partisan regime in Iraq.

Nizhar al-Dulaimi, the Sunni businessman and founder of the Iraqi Progressive Party was the main go-between in the US-insurgent exchanges. He had actively urged Sunni voters to turn out. Tuesday, he was murdered in an ambush laid for his convoy in Ramadi.

But by then his work had borne fruit.

Our sources report that the important Islamic Front for Iraqi Resistance – JAME – issued new guidelines. One calls on JAME members to break off ties with Abu Musab al Zarqawi’s followers, namely al Qaeda; another, with an eye to the future, orders adherents to desist from attacks on infrastructure and national resources such as oilfields and pipelines.

DEBKAfile’s military sources say it is too soon to say whether these directives are carrying weight on the ground and affecting the insurgents’ rank and file’s collaboration with the terrorists.

But Wednesday, in certain Sunni-dominated voting districts, local Sunni tribal militias linked to al Qaeda undertook to secure the polling stations instead of Iraqi police and soldiers. This too is thought to have been generated by the pre-election understandings forged between the US and certain Sunni leaders.

If these understandings yield the two goals of vaulting Iraq’s Sunni Arab community into mainstream national politics and power-sharing, and driving wedge between guerrilla groups and al Qaeda, Iraq’s general election may be counted a modest success.

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1120

QueEx · Dec 17, 2005

<center>Sunni Leader Open to Coalition Government</center>

Dec 16, 10:40 PM (ET)
Associated Press
By ROBERT H. REID

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - A leading Sunni politician said Friday his party would be open to an alliance with secular Shiites and Kurds to form a coalition government to run the country once the results are in from this week's parliamentary elections.

"We will not accept the exclusion of any segment of the Iraqi people unless they themselves don't want to participate," said Adan al-Dulaimi, a former Islamic studies professor who heads a Sunni Arab bloc that is now expected to have power in parliament.

U.S. officials view al-Dulaimi, who heads an alliance called the Iraqi Accordance Front, as a possible intermediary who could persuade some Sunni-led insurgent groups in restive Anbar province to join the political process after boycotting previous votes.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Al-Dulaimi predicted that Shiite religious parties would be unable to form a government - even though they are widely expected to take the largest number of seats.

That would open the door to a coalition of Sunnis, secular Shiites and Kurds, al-Dulaimi said.

"We will not accept the exclusion of any segment of the Iraqi people unless they themselves don't want to participate," he said.

However, al-Dulaimi's prediction that the Shiites would be unable to form a government is by no means a certainty. Shiites account for about 60 percent of the country's 27 million people, and turnout in the Shiite heartland of southern and central Iraq was reported high.

Under the newly ratified constitution, the party with the biggest number of seats gets first crack at trying to form a government than can win parliament's endorsement. That is likely to be the coalition of Shiite religious parties that dominate the outgoing government.

Still, a government with strong Sunni Arab representation could help defuse the Sunni-dominated insurgency and allow the United States and its coalition partners to begin removing troops next year.

On Friday, Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the top U.S. commander, told Pentagon reporters in a video teleconference that he will make recommendations in the next few weeks about troop withdrawals from Iraq.

But Casey sought to dampen expectation that a successful election alone would end the insurgency and predicted insurgents may escalate their attacks to demonstrate they "are still strong and a factor to be reckoned with."

"We should not expect the insurgency to just go away because of yesterday's great success," Casey said. "But we should expect it to be gradually weakened and reduced as more and more Iraqis adopt the political process and the root causes of the insurgency are addressed by the new Iraqi government and by the coalition."

In an Internet statement Friday, the Islamic Army in Iraq, a major insurgent group, said it was responsible for the absence of widespread election violence because it wanted to avoid harming Sunni Arab voters.

"We knew Sunnis would participate in this game (because) most were forced to through the oppression, torture and destruction and suffering they receive from the slaves of the Cross (the Americans) and the Shiites," said the statement, which could not be immediately verified.

The statement added that the jihadist group did not believe in democracy, only God.

Also Friday, the U.S. military said Iraqi authorities have issued an arrest warrant for Mullah Halgurd Al-Khabir, the "prime suspect" in the August 2003 bombing of the U.N. headquarters in Baghdad that killed 22 people. The statement identified al-Khabir as the Baghdad area commander for the Islamic militant Ansar al-Sunnah Army, which has ties to al-Qaida in Iraq.

Before Thursday's election, Shiite religious politicians said they expected to win up to 120 seats - down 26 from their current level. The Shiites and Kurds won a disproportionate number of seats in the January ballot because so many Sunnis boycotted the election. This time, Sunnis turned out in large numbers.

Jawad al-Maliki, a prominent Shiite legislator, said there was "no doubt that initial results show that we will be the strong bloc" but that a coalition would probably be required - possibly with some Sunnis.

Another Shiite politician, Mouwafak al-Rubaie, said the Shiites would try to form an "inclusive" government even if they don't have to. He accused "some foreign embassies" of "working very hard" to manipulate the results.

Although violence was low on election day, the U.S. Marines said a mortar attack Friday killed an Iraqi soldier and four children playing soccer in a school yard that was a polling station in the western Euphrates River valley town of Parwana. Two children were injured.

About five explosions were heard in central Baghdad on Friday, one of them from a mortar shell which police said wounded three people near an Interior Ministry building.

During a press conference, election spokesman Ezzeddin al-Mohamady said authorities had received 178 election complaints so far, including 35 allegations of "violent interference" by police, soldiers or election workers.

He said most of the rest, 101, were related to campaigning violations such as using religious symbols in campaign ads.

"Until now, we have not received any complaints about fraud," al-Mohamady said.

But Nour Eddin Saeed al-Heyaly, an official of a major Sunni Arab party, claimed 80 Iraqi army soldiers - mostly Kurds - voted twice in one northern town. He also said Iraqi soldiers prevented his party's officials from entering another northern city, Tal Afar. Most soldiers in the area are Shiites or Kurds.

A Western official in Baghdad said the number of complaints was higher than in the January election and the October constitutional referendum but gave no comparative figures. The official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said the irregularities were not expected to affect the outcome but were considered serious.

---

Associated Press correspondents Bassem Mroue, Mariam Fam and Sinan Salaheddin contributed to this report in Baghdad.

http://apnews1.iwon.com//article/20051217/D8EHOHE00.html?PG=home&SEC=news

QueEx · Dec 20, 2005

<center>Ruling Shiite Bloc Sets Pace at Polls
Iraq's leaders are likely to have their mandate renewed,
early vote data show. Most legislative seats
appear to go to Islamic-led parties</center>

Los Angeles Times
By Borzou Daragahi, Times Staff Writer
December 20, 2005

BAGHDAD — A Shiite Muslim coalition built around Iraq's governing alliance won a commanding number of seats in an election that underscored the depth of the country's ethnic and sectarian divisions, according to preliminary results released Monday and unofficial reports.

Preliminary data from 11 of the country's 18 provinces and other vote estimates indicated that Islamic-led parties or coalitions drawn from all main ethnic groups would win at least 175 of the 275 seats in the new Council of Representatives. In addition, officials with the main Kurdish alliance in northern Iraq said they expected to win about 55 seats.

The results appeared to be a major defeat for former interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi despite millions of dollars spent on a highly visible media campaign. American officials in Baghdad and Washington looked favorably on Allawi, a pro-Western secular Shiite and onetime CIA-backed opponent of the Saddam Hussein regime.

Iraqis voted in droves Thursday for a parliament that will assemble a government and determine the country's course for the next four years. Under complicated election rules, 230 seats will be divided among leading vote-getters in line with the population of Iraq's provinces. The remaining 45 seats will be apportioned according to nationwide vote totals for party slates.

Election officials cautioned that the numbers released Monday were preliminary and didn't include wide swaths of the country, including the mostly Sunni Arab provinces of Al Anbar and Nineveh and the ethnically mixed provinces surrounding Kirkuk, Mosul and Baqubah.

Voting results may also be scrutinized for irregularities. "We reject these results," Adnan Dulaimi, a leader of the main Sunni Arab slate, told the Al Arabiya satellite television station. "There has been lots of manipulation, especially in Baghdad."

Sunnis are a minority but dominated the country under Hussein and now form the core of the insurgency. They largely boycotted January's balloting for a transitional assembly but turned out in large numbers last week.

Numbers tallied so far show a continued entrenchment of the country's ethnic and sectarian divisions. Secular parties trying to build pan-Iraq appeal fared poorly.

The Shiite-identified United Iraqi Alliance, which currently controls the government, estimated that it would receive about 130 seats, fewer than it won in January but still the largest block. The alliance eschewed television ads in favor of the power of the mosque and the marjaiyah, the council of high-ranking Shiite clergymen whose implicit blessing propelled the coalition to power in January.

The alliance took about 80% of the vote in Najaf and Karbala provinces, home to important religious shrines and seminaries, and appeared to have secured 12 of 14 seats there, according to data from 98% of the polling centers. A partnership with groups representing maverick cleric Muqtada Sadr, who kept his distance from the alliance in January, also contributed to its victory.

Support for the alliance was virtually unanimous at polling centers in Baghdad's teeming Sadr City area, home to many supporters of the firebrand cleric.

In contrast, an analysis of partial results indicated that Allawi's faction had secured at least 16 seats in Baghdad and the Shiite south. Early partial returns and reports from around the country suggested that he would wind up with no more than 25 seats, substantially fewer than the 40 his ticket won in January. His deputies were holding out the hope of matching their January total when all seats are finally awarded.

Allawi, the favorite of the country's Westernized intelligentsia, received only 13% of the vote in Baghdad province, where he was believed to have the strongest base of support.

Poor performances by Allawi and other centrists bode ill for Iraq, said Wayne White, a former State Department intelligence official who is now an analyst at the Middle East Institute, a Washington think tank.

"The thing I really fear is that we're going to have a government of extremes and the center doesn't seem to be taking shape," he said.

Iraqi political insiders estimate that Allawi spent $20 million on his campaign and joked that he would end up spending as much per seat in parliament as most members of the U.S. Congress. Allawi deputies acknowledged disappointment with the results. They blamed the suffering of their middle-class supporters, voter intimidation and cheating by the dominant Shiite coalition. Many Allawi loyalists and the former interim prime minister himself left Iraq as results began trickling in.

"There are suspicions about some areas of Baghdad, where we will demand the recounting or the redoing of the elections," said Hussein Adeli, an official in the Allawi campaign. "The process was not transparent or honest according to international criteria. It was under threats, weapons, horror and the abuse of the religious figures — all led to these results."

"The election results proved that the middle class in Iraq has become devastated because of the living conditions they have," said Maysoon Damluji, a deputy minister of culture running on Allawi's ticket. "This class is the one which normally chose a liberal list. Here in Iraq, because of the economic situation, sanctions and wars, this class has been diminished."

Alliance strategists said missteps by Allawi and his colleagues framed his campaign as an attack on Shiite clergy. They also suggested that his far-flung coalition, which included former members of Hussein's Baath Party and Iraq's long-established Communist Party as well as a smattering of Western-style Democrats, lacked cohesion.

"His campaign doesn't have an identity, and therefore voters don't know why they should vote for him," said Saad Jawad Qindeel, a United Iraqi Alliance strategist.

Two Sunni Arab slates won an estimated 12 seats in Baghdad, five in Salahuddin province and a smattering in the Shiite south. Iyad Samarrai, a leader of the main Sunni coalition, forecast that his Islamist bloc would ultimately win about 45 seats.

He said his National Accordance Front was willing to negotiate with the Shiite coalition, which includes onetime Iranian-backed militiamen who fought Hussein's Sunni government, to build the two-thirds majority necessary in parliament to name a president. The president appoints a prime minister, who manages the government's day-to-day affairs.

"This negotiation will start soon," he said. "There is even the possibility of a partnership with the alliance. We have very big complaints against their program and behavior within the past year. We have to make sure that they deal with these complaints."

Sadoon Faylee, a Kurdistan Alliance campaign strategist, said the main Kurdish coalition would probably get about 55 seats. It won 75 in the January election.

Ahmad Chalabi, the onetime U.S. favorite, appeared to draw less than 0.5% of the vote in Baghdad and appeared unlikely to gain a seat in parliament.

Other results around the country showed few surprises. Election officials in Al Tamim province, where the disputed, oil-rich city of Kirkuk is situated, said the Kurdish bloc, an ethnic Turkmen slate and Sunni Arab coalitions were leading.

An election official said a panorama of parties was fighting it out for the 10 seats in Diyala province, which includes the Sunni and Shiite city of Baqubah and the Kurdish city of Khanaqin.

Times staff writer Saif Rasheed and special correspondent Asmaa Waguih in Baghdad and special correspondents in Baqubah, Kirkuk and Najaf contributed to this report

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationw...167.story?coll=la-story-footer&track=morenews

Making Sense of Iraq's Vote

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