Israel aint doing shit
Bebe won't do shit before talking to Obama- he has no bunker busters and no way to stop the Iranian nuclear program.
Iran will have nuclear power and the bomb if it wants it. No sanctions will happen cuz China and Russia will vote against it.
Only real option is normalized relations and Iran will change to a different reactor type to make people feel better. Peace with Syria is coming. Obama said he wouldn't help Israel with Iran unless they get their act together on the 2 state solution.
If Israel attacks Iran we're gonna sucked into some total bullshit. I dont see Obama being weak enough to let it happen but you never know.
Good analysis there bro,
Just to add, i just hope Obama has some intelligent folks running the state dept and CIA. At the moment Iran as engaged in a soft takeover of the Middle East - it now controls a significant portion of Iraq, is extending influence over Jordan and Egypt, and has the ability to wreak havoc over the entire Middle East.
I think Bush destroying Iraq was the greatest strategic blunder Americans has ever made, and its in the best interest for America now ally itself with Iran instead of continually goading it.
Just like what Fareed Zakaria said few weeks ago in a header of Newsweek magazine, America's first problem in dealing with Iran is that they don't understand it. Its population growth has fallen from since mid 80's, only slightly higher than the U.S. Further, its religious parties generally only receive about 10% of the vote. Iran's current belligerence can be traced not to innate aggression, but the fact that wars are being fought on two of its borders. American are not hated in Iran - just that it occupy large portions of the Middle East.
Iran got the confidence that it can beat the West from its 1982-2000 experience in Lebanon, when its proxy Hezbollah forced the Israelis to retreat. The recent elections in Lebanon were pretty much bought by USA,SAUDIS& ISRAEL..(Lebanese in the diaspora were paid up to $25,000 to go back andvote for anti-Hezbollah parties)
As we speak now here in BGOL Iranian surrogates have already started to take control of Iraq's oil by stealing hundreds of thousands of barrels/day, as well as getting Iraq's Shia oil minister to cancel Kurds' oil contracts because Iran does not want to strengthen that group.
We also know that Saddam's T-72 tanks and helicopters were all that kept him from falling; without those resources, whatever regime replaces him will not be able to hold the nation together. The U.S. further acerbated control problems by allowing Iran to take over from moderate Shia clerics via assassinations and taking over various sect bank accounts.
I also agree with you above assessment that Iran has armed itself via fire-sale prices from Russia - new and refurbished tanks with heat-seeking missiles, MIG-29s with accompanying missiles, and Chinese missiles. Much of this armament is buried underground. Fiber-optic cable technology that can't be intercepted is used for communications, and of course they are well known for having learned to create EFPs (explosively formed penetrators). Finally, in 2007 Iran sent emissaries to all Gulf states telling them that if the U.S. attacks us we will destroy your oil facilities. Thus, Iran doesn't need nuclear weapons to play an important role.
So i still think Obama has to be smart and understand who he is dealing with here and tread very careful and if it means he says fuck off to Mushavi and those moderates then be it...
