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How many people here think Trump will get the GOP nomination?

Will Trump win the GOP nomination?

  • Yes

    Votes: 53 65.4%

  • No

    Votes: 28 34.6%
  • Total voters
    81
I think he may been working to deliver a Clinton Presidency...

I don't think Bill, Hil, Trump or anybody else appreciated how large the ignorant racist "make America great again" demographic was until Trump and Ben Carson started talking crazy. Trump doubled down and the rest was history. He can win the nomination unfortunately.
 
LSN said:
told y'all he ain't going nowhere...there might be a strong enough contingent of cacs who wanna "make up for Obama" :smh:
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That's what got me worried. I was reading comments on an nbc article or some shit and I saw a few different people saying they've voting Trump "as revenge for Obama". They're lost their minds and Trump is feeding.
 
Still don’t think Donald Trump can win? This chart should convince you.
By Chris Cillizza
January 9

When people find out I am a political reporter, they usually have only one question for me: "Donald Trump can't really win this thing, can he?" My answer is always the same these days: Absolutely he can.

The reason is simple: Trump is the national front-runner, yes, but he is also ahead in a two key early states -- New Hampshire and South Carolina -- and a strong second in Iowa, the state that kicks the whole presidential process off on Feb. 1.

Could he totally collapse from that position? Sure. As we know from recent history, voters in Iowa and New Hampshire don't start paying all that close attention to the race until about 30 days or so out from the actual vote -- meaning that polling on what the race looks like tends to be an inexact science.

But the fact that Trump is ahead nationally and that he is running first or second in Iowa and New Hampshire is meaningful, argues Sam Wang over at the Princeton Election Consortium.

Wang's argument is that based on recent electoral history and where Trump stands in polling today, the real estate billionaire actually has a very good chance at being the Republican nominee. Look at where the past nominees in each party were at this time in national, Iowa and New Hampshire polling:

Screen-Shot-2016-01-07-at-12.31.33-PM.png



Sure, there's John Kerry, who was fourth nationally and third in Iowa at this point but went on to win both of the first two states and quickly wrap up the nomination. But the overall trend is clear; running first nationally and standing in either first or second place in Iowa and New Hampshire tends to be a very good predictor of your chances at being the nominee.

Here's Wang's chart with Trump's current standing factored in:

Screen-Shot-2016-01-07-at-12.32.04-PM.png



"This emphasizes the fact that based on polling data, Donald Trump is in as strong a position to get his party’s nomination as Hillary Clinton in 2016, George W. Bush in 2000, or Al Gore in 2000," writes Wang. (The bolding is his, not mine.) "The one case in which a lead of this size was reversed was the 2008 Democratic nomination, which very was closely fought."

It's important to remember that Wang isn't saying that Trump will be the Republican nominee. What he's saying is that Trump has a pretty damn good chance at being the GOP nominee -- if past is prologue.

The simple fact is that it is difficult to fall from the lofty perch that Trump currently occupies fast enough to not have a real chance at the nomination. Just one month from now, the Iowa and New Hampshire votes will have already happened!

Barring some sort of massive flub or campaign catastrophe -- and it's hard to imagine what would even fit that description when it comes to Trump -- The Donald will be in the mix when the nomination gets decided.

And, if you're wondering where Trump's rivals for the nomination fit in Wang's calculations, the only one who comes close to the reality star is Ted Cruz, who is second nationally, first in Iowa and third in New Hampshire. Marco Rubio, widely seen as the establishment front-runner at this point, is third nationally, third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire. Jeb(!) Bush? Fifth nationally, sixth in Iowa and sixth in New Hampshire.

The race might not be Trump's to lose just yet. But it's starting to get very late for him to collapse.
 
themainman said:
I think he may been working to deliver a Clinton Presidency...

I don't think Bill, Hil, Trump or anybody else appreciated how large the ignorant racist "make America great again" demographic was until Trump and Ben Carson started talking crazy. Trump doubled down and the rest was history. He can win the nomination unfortunately.
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What doesn't make sense about that is, just for starters, his birther war on Obama when he was the Republican frontrunner in 2011-- He's been #1 with the crazies for a longtime and it has nothing to do with Hillary 2016.
 
I honestly think that he can beat Hillary. She is not the right woman to be the first female President. Too many skeletons, flip flopping and just all around distrust follows her. But Bernie will mop the floor with Trump in the debates. Would basically make anyone voting for Trump look like an idiot blindly voting for him.
 
eewwll said:
That's what got me worried. I was reading comments on an nbc article or some shit and I saw a few different people saying they've voting Trump "as revenge for Obama". They're lost their minds and Trump is feeding.
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You saw what happened when that pressure got to Palin when her and Mcain were the nominees
 
yes he will win the nomination

I will always bet on Americans doing stupid things electorally........just look at how many fucked up tea party and republican governors have been elected

you folks need to have policies explode in your face before any lessons are learned..
 
I voted no. Super Tuesday is going to tell you all you need to know about what's going to happen and perhaps paint a clearer picture. If he survives that, then I will stand corrected. Also you have to take into account the establishment is anti-Trump, so if it goes down to a brokered convention, will they have vote for him? I think not. But of course we'll see.
 
It would be easy vote "No", because we're looking at it from OUR point of view. American stupidity has too many moving parts, and therefore, all bets are off when it comes to shit like this.
 
HeathCliff said:
I voted no. Super Tuesday is going to tell you all you need to know about what's going to happen and perhaps paint a clearer picture. If he survives that, then I will stand corrected. Also you have to take into account the establishment is anti-Trump, so if it goes down to a brokered convention, will they have vote for him? I think not. But of course we'll see.
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If it comes down to this, all Trump has to do is bring the lube.
 
No as much as most repugs hate Hillary a good number of them may vote for her instead of the Donald.........the repugs down ticket will lose a good number of races with him on the ballot.
 
easy_b said:
No as much as most repugs hate Hillary a good number of them may vote for her instead of the Donald.........the repugs down ticket will lose a good number of races with him on the ballot.
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The one thing we can point to is history. Then you think about it, Americans, as a whole, are centered politically. Look at the elections of 1964 and 72. When they thought America was ready to go waaaay right, the 64 election told them: "No, we're not!", and when they thought America was ready to go waaaay left, the 72 election told them: "Uh, guess again." Sadly, most of us are not students of history, especially our politicians. You'll always have radicals on both sides, but they'll never be the majority or worth pandering to in a general election. That being said, you still can't rule out stupidity and fear.
 
woodchuck said:
The one thing we can point to is history. Then you think about it, Americans, as a whole, are centered politically. Look at the elections of 1964 and 72. When they thought America was ready to go waaaay right, the 64 election told them: "No, we're not!", and when they thought America was ready to go waaaay left, the 72 election told them: "Uh, guess again." Sadly, most of us are not students of history, especially our politician. You'll always have radicals on both sides, but they'll never be the majority or worth pandering to in a general election. That being said, you still can't rule out stupidity and fear.
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do you really see trump winning the same states Obama won????? This is gong to be a landslide for the Dems...Repugs should had ran a middle of the road candidate this year
 
woodchuck said:
And most of those votes will be out of fear. If I could create a machine that takes you back to the past, I'd make a killing off of white people!
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Ever read the book black no more by George Schyler? Lmaoo

Excellent reading bro exactly what you stated minus the time machine
 
"THE MAN" said:
I honestly think that he can beat Hillary. She is not the right woman to be the first female President. Too many skeletons, flip flopping and just all around distrust follows her. But Bernie will mop the floor with Trump in the debates. Would basically make anyone voting for Trump look like an idiot blindly voting for him.
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I think Bernie has to be the nominee if Trump wins the republican side. Trump can kill Hillary on everything from how the Clintons did black people in the 90s(fueling the prison industrial complex), to the Clinton/Obama drama, to the Iraq war vote. He can easily make black voter turnout low for her(coming off Obama this isn't hard to do anyway), which can give him Ohio. Most people don't vote lesser of two evil style. If they aren't excited about a candidate, they stay home. Republicans are always excited, and that's why they kick ass in mid-term elections.

Also, every Isis move will help him. Every Muslim incident in Europe or the U.S. helps him.
 
gene cisco said:
I think Bernie has to be the nominee if Trump wins the republican side. Trump can kill Hillary on everything from how the Clintons did black people in the 90s(fueling the prison industrial complex), to the Clinton/Obama drama, to the Iraq war vote. He can easily make black voter turnout low for her(coming off Obama this isn't hard to do anyway), which can give him Ohio. Most people don't vote lesser of two evil style. If they aren't excited about a candidate, they stay home. Republicans are always excited, and that's why they kick ass in mid-term elections.

Also, every Isis move will help him. Every Muslim incident in Europe or the U.S. helps him.
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Agreed. Republicans show up to vote for anyone not a Liberal in their eyes.
 
IMO Trump has one major problem, he knows nothing on a political level and I expect him to be exposed. All he's done so far is attack who he feels is a worthy adversary. What is his political platform or agenda? What's he going to do about the poor? The disappearing middle class, What about dealing with Russia, China, N. Korea not to mention the middle east. What about ISIS?

You cannot run a country as you would a business. Trump will fall back to the pack once they start discussing political agendas and policies. Telling America I'm going to build walls to stop illegals (Mexicans) from entering the country is not going to cut it.

If the American people elect Trump it'll be a worse mistake since they put George Jr. in the White House and they will pay for that decision.
 
gene cisco said:
He should get it no problem.

Obama and 90s Bill would destroy trump. They are rockstars. Bigger than politics. Hillary isn't. Sanders isn't. How far back do we have to go to find a Democratic president who wasn't bigger than the office itself? Why didn't Kerry beat Bush in 2004? If Americans had some fucking sense, it would have been a landslide, right? But Kerry wasn't a rockstar.

Trump is treating this election like the popularity contest that it is. Let's face it, at least 50 percent of the voters going to the polls don't know shit about politics. That's on both sides.
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Media making sure nobody knows about Sanders. Everything he has done has been without media push and with the DNC scheduling debates on low TV nights. In addition, media keeps inaccurately saying Hillary is winning debates that Sanders is clearly winning. Make no mistake, nobody terrifies the establishment like Sanders. If he got the same media push, he would be everything Bill and Barack were.
 
As for the question in the OP, the continual collective refusal of the "mainstream" to own up to their racism blinds them as to how racist this society is. The media and certain elements thought this was a joke story so they played it up. But guess what? Trump is "crazy" to them but not to many parts of this country. The impossible has become possible. Unless he intentionally self destructs (still not sure he really wants it), he will get the nomination.
 
cudjoe74 said:
Media making sure nobody knows about Sanders. Everything he has done has been without media push and with the DNC scheduling debates on low TV nights. In addition, media keeps inaccurately saying Hillary is winning debates that Sanders is clearly winning. Make no mistake, nobody terrifies the establishment like Sanders. If he got the same media push, he would be everything Bill and Barack were.
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That's the thing. Trump has shown you can create your own media. This isn't 2008. Trump is on Twitter talking shit and beefing with Samuel Jackson. He's warring with Fox News. He's showing the game has changed, and Sanders should learn from him and create his own buzz.

Media has been talking the same shit about Trump that they do about Sanders. The only one with a media push is Clinton. Sanders has to step out the dinosaur age and start taking some risks. One fucking tweet is enough to create some buzz. Sanders doesn't need CNN and the others, but he does need to adapt the what seems to be new-age campaigning for the presidency.
 
gene cisco said:
That's the thing man. He will use every fucking thing they do to incite the fear he knows American people have. The shit is a genius gamble. As he talks, he pisses off some 'lone wolves' who don't think shit through. They act. Bodies drop. He wins.

If 100-500 people die in an attack, he's about the only one who could say " I told you so" and that shit would carry a lot of weight. Democrats would scurry like bitches like they did in 2001 when they caved to anything Republicans wanted. Funny how Hillary caved too.
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The One Weird Trait That Predicts Whether You’re a Trump Supporter
And it’s not gender, age, income, race or religion.
By Matthew MacWilliams
1/17/2016

If I asked you what most defines Donald Trump supporters, what would you say? They’re white? They’re poor? They’re uneducated?

You’d be wrong.

In fact, I’ve found a single statistically significant variable predicts whether a voter supports Trump—and it’s not race, income or education levels: It’s authoritarianism.

That’s right, Trump’s electoral strength—and his staying power—have been buoyed, above all, by Americans with authoritarian inclinations. And because of the prevalence of authoritarians in the American electorate, among Democrats as well as Republicans, it’s very possible that Trump’s fan base will continue to grow.

My finding is the result of a national poll I conducted in the last five days of December under the auspices of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, sampling 1,800 registered voters across the country and the political spectrum. Running a standard statistical analysis, I found that education, income, gender, age, ideology and religiosity had no significant bearing on a Republican voter’s preferred candidate. Only two of the variables I looked at were statistically significant: authoritarianism, followed by fear of terrorism, though the former was far more significant than the latter.

Authoritarianism is not a new, untested concept in the American electorate. Since the rise of Nazi Germany, it has been one of the most widely studied ideas in social science. While its causes are still debated, the political behavior of authoritarians is not. Authoritarians obey. They rally to and follow strong leaders. And they respond aggressively to outsiders, especially when they feel threatened. From pledging to “make America great again” by building a wall on the border to promising to close mosques and ban Muslims from visiting the United States, Trump is playing directly to authoritarian inclinations.
Not all authoritarians are Republicans by any means; in national surveys since 1992, many authoritarians have also self-identified as independents and Democrats. And in the 2008 Democratic primary, the political scientist Marc Hetherington found that authoritarianism mattered more than income, ideology, gender, age and education in predicting whether voters preferred Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama, concluding "There is strong suggestive evidence that authoritarianism was a core reason for the voting behavior of nonblacks." But Hetherington has also found, based on 14 years of polling, that authoritarians have steadily moved from the Democratic to the Republican Party over time. He hypothesizes that the trend began decades ago, as Democrats embraced civil rights, gay rights, employment protections and other political positions valuing freedom and equality. In my poll results, authoritarianism was not a statistically significant factor in the Democratic primary race, at least not so far, but it does appear to be playing an important role on the Republican side. Indeed, 49 percent of likely Republican primary voters I surveyed score in the top quarter of the authoritarian scale—more than twice as many as Democratic voters.

Political pollsters have missed this key component of Trump’s support because they simply don’t include questions about authoritarianism in their polls. In addition to the typical battery of demographic, horse race, thermometer-scale and policy questions, my poll asked a set of four simple survey questions that political scientists have employed since 1992 to measure inclination toward authoritarianism. These questions pertain to child-rearing: whether it is more important for the voter to have a child who is respectful or independent; obedient or self-reliant; well-behaved or considerate; and well-mannered or curious. Respondents who pick the first option in each of these questions are strongly authoritarian.

Based on these questions, Trump was the only candidate—Republican or Democrat—whose support among authoritarians was statistically significant.

So what does this mean for the election? It doesn’t just help us understand what motivates Trump’s backers—it suggests that his support isn’t capped. In a statistical analysis of the polling results, I found that Trump has already captured 43 percent of Republican primary voters who are strong authoritarians, and 37 percent of Republican authoritarians overall. A majority of Republican authoritarians in my poll also strongly supported Trump’s proposals to deport 11 million illegal immigrants, prohibit Muslims from entering the United States, shutter mosques and establish a nationwide database that track Muslims.

And in a general election, Trump’s strongman rhetoric will surely appeal to some of the 39 percent of independents in my poll who identify as authoritarians and the 17 percent of self-identified Democrats who are strong authoritarians.

What’s more, the number of Americans worried about the threat of terrorism is growing. In 2011, Hetherington published research finding that non-authoritarians respond to the perception of threat by behaving more like authoritarians. More fear and more threats—of the kind we’ve seen recently in the San Bernardino and Paris terrorist attacks—mean more voters are susceptible to Trump’s message about protecting Americans. In my survey, 52 percent of those voters expressing the most fear that another terrorist attack will occur in the United States in the next 12 months were non-authoritarians—ripe targets for Trump’s message.

Take activated authoritarians from across the partisan spectrum and the growing cadre of threatened non-authoritarians, then add them to the base of Republican general election voters, and the potential electoral path to a Trump presidency becomes clearer.

So, those who say a Trump presidency “can’t happen here” should check their conventional wisdom at the door. The candidate has confounded conventional expectations this primary season because those expectations are based on an oversimplified caricature of the electorate in general and his supporters in particular. Conditions are ripe for an authoritarian leader to emerge. Trump is seizing the opportunity. And the institutions—from the Republican Party to the press—that are supposed to guard against what James Madison called “the infection of violent passions” among the people have either been cowed by Trump’s bluster or are asleep on the job.

It is time for those who would appeal to our better angels to take his insurgency seriously and stop dismissing his supporters as a small band of the dispossessed. Trump support is firmly rooted in American authoritarianism and, once awakened, it is a force to be reckoned with. That means it’s also time for political pollsters to take authoritarianism seriously and begin measuring it in their polls.

Matthew MacWilliams is founder of MacWilliams Sanders, a political communications firms, and a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, where he is writing his dissertation about authoritarianism.

More in the BGOL's Political Compass thread.
 
Not gonna win. Alienated too many ethnic groups and women. Even rich people hate him. China will hate him and so will the Chinese. There are too many bombshells not dropped yet or used by his competitors. The number of openly racist, dumb fucks aren't enough to undo the damage he has done just with his mouth. He won't even win New York. Cruz is going down on the birther issue and the campaign loans. It'll sadly be Jeb and Trunp in the end. But Bernie and Hillary will just team up and sweep it if things get too dire.
 
gene cisco said:
I think Bernie has to be the nominee if Trump wins the republican side. Trump can kill Hillary on everything from how the Clintons did black people in the 90s(fueling the prison industrial complex), to the Clinton/Obama drama, to the Iraq war vote. He can easily make black voter turnout low for her(coming off Obama this isn't hard to do anyway), which can give him Ohio. Most people don't vote lesser of two evil style. If they aren't excited about a candidate, they stay home. Republicans are always excited, and that's why they kick ass in mid-term elections.

Also, every Isis move will help him. Every Muslim incident in Europe or the U.S. helps him.
Click to expand...

It's Cruz that we have to worry about. He is worse than Trump but he is more sophisticated in his speech to soften his true agenda.
He is also polling ahead of Hilary. Bernie is polling ahead of Trump and Cruz by a respective 19 and 13 points. Hilary is polling ahead of Trump by 13 points and losing to Cruz. She is a liability but the fact that the DNC and Wasserman-Shultz is trying to rig it in her favor is going to weaken the Democratic party. They both need to go.
 
He will probably win the nomination but if he wins the general, it's lights out for this nation.

To be honest, I think the powers that be will never let that happen.
 

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