<font size="5"><center>Clinton Camp's Challenge: </font size><font size="6">
How Hard to Hit Obama?</font size></center>
Wall Street Journal
By JACKIE CALMES and AMY CHOZICK
January 5, 2008
MANCHESTER, N.H. -- With little time to recover from Iowa's presidential caucuses before Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, a bruised Hillary Clinton faces her nightmare scenario: Barack Obama could unite anti-Clinton Democrats to seal the party's nomination in coming weeks.
Seven in 10 Iowa Democrats in Thursday night's caucuses supported someone other than New York's Sen. Clinton. Among those who showed up supporting the second-tier candidates, very few listed her as their second choice. In the end, she finished third, losing not just to Sen. Obama but, by a sliver, to John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator who had made the state the linchpin of his populist candidacy.
Attack Aggressively?
Now, the Clinton campaign is scrambling to reassess its strategy, and whether to more aggressively attack Sen. Obama. "Does everyone know everything they need to know about Barack Obama?" her chief strategist, Mark Penn, asked a handful of reporters on a glum overnight flight from Iowa to New Hampshire. "She's fully vetted, fully tested, and I don't think that process has occurred with Barack Obama."
Sen. Clinton echoed him hours later, at a morning rally in a Nashua, N.H., airport hangar. "Of all the people running for president, I've been the most vetted, the most investigated, and -- my goodness -- the most innocent, it turns out," she said to applause.
Obama Has Been Playing Her Fears
In Iowa, Sen. Clinton tried unsuccessfully to overcome her chief vulnerabilities: One, that some Democrats don't like her, or else fear that enough Americans feel that way that she can't win in November. And two, that Democrats are desperate for change after the Bush years and the partisanship of the Clinton years as well.
It is a sentiment that Sen. Obama plays on routinely in his speeches. "We can't afford the same old partisan food fight in Washington," he says. And he alludes to Sen. Clinton's high negatives in polls, in which slightly more Americans see her in a negative light than view her favorably. "I don't want to go into the next election starting off with half the country already not wanting to vote for Democrats," Mr. Obama says on the stump.
Despite attempting to soften her image, Sen. Clinton left some Iowans feeling cold. She swung through Des Moines's Lovejoy Elementary School Thursday night to greet caucus-goers. After she shook hands with Rob Moyers and moved on, he remarked: "I looked into Obama's eyes and he seemed sincere. Now, that looked mechanical. She's like a robot."
The Risk
A campaign strategy viewed as an attack on Sen. Obama risks backfiring on Sen. Clinton, given her already high negatives. That's a particular danger for her now, post-Iowa, with the once-crowded Democratic field clearing; Sen. Obama could become a magnet for Democrats who want to move beyond the Clinton-Bush years. Mr. Edwards has tried to draw those voters, but he lags in funds and organization beyond Iowa. Two other candidates, Sens. Joseph Biden of Delaware and Chris Dodd of Connecticut, have dropped out.
The winnowing of the field opens the way for Illinois Sen. Obama, who triumphed with nearly 38% of Iowa caucus-goers' support -- eight points ahead of his top two rivals -- to build on his momentum. New Hampshire could shape up as friendly turf for Mr. Obama. Independent voters, who have responded to his campaign message of changing Washington, outnumber both Democrats and Republicans in the Granite State. They lean heavily Democratic.
In polls of Iowans entering the caucus sites, Sen. Obama had more support than Sen. Clinton did from younger Democrats and men -- groups known to be weak spots for her. The polls also showed that Sen. Obama was stronger among female voters, a group on whom Sen. Clinton was relying. And he was far and away the choice of voters who said they wanted a candidate who would change Washington.
"I don't consider it as an anti-Clinton constituency; I consider it a pro-change constituency" for Sen. Obama, said his senior strategist, David Axelrod. "To win this election, we need to change our politics and expand our base and attract some disillusioned Republicans and attract more young people -- and all of that happened in Iowa."
After New Hampshire, the Democratic race turns to Nevada's caucuses on Jan. 19 and the Jan. 26 primary in South Carolina. In Nevada, Mr. Obama has already shown appeal in a contest dominated by union workers. In South Carolina, where blacks make up half of the Democratic primary electorate, many are excited about the prospect of America's first black president.
Sen. Clinton vowed on Friday to win here on Tuesday -- just as her husband's strong New Hampshire showing in 1992 made him "the Comeback Kid." But her campaign faces the prospect of losses in some if not all of the other early-voting states.
The major Clinton-Obama showdown will likely come on Feb. 5, which is shaping up as a near-national primary day. More than 20 states will vote, including her home state, New York, his home state, Illinois, and California.
Several Democratic strategists unaffiliated with any campaign said on Friday that Sen. Clinton could lose in the early states and still clinch the nomination on Feb. 5. To do so, they said, she must focus on burnishing her own image in the coming month, and she must resist the temptation to tar Sen. Obama.
"The Clinton campaign needs to play for the long term, and righting the ship in terms of how people see her is more important than beating Obama," says Democratic pollster Geoff Garin, who's not backing any candidate. "I don't think that Hillary Clinton has made clear what the fundamental change is that she would bring about, and why people should trust her to do it."
Mr. Garin contends that Sen. Obama has more clearly sold voters -- in Iowa at least -- that he stands for "changing the way our country works, bringing people together, replacing the politics of cynicism with the politics of hope."
She's Been Warned
As Sen. Clinton opened what will be the shortest campaign ever between the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire's primary, she suggested she will continue to focus on her opponents and to boast of her experience. At a diner here, she told voters that she would be "drawing contrasts between what I've done for 35 years and what my leading opponents have done."
With her was a top New Hampshire supporter, state Sen. Lou D'Allesandro, who warns against going negative: "My advice is, always be positive," he said in an interview afterward. "She has to increase her 'likeability' quotient," he added. "When people meet her one-on-one, they like her very much."
Both inside and outside the Clinton campaign, Democrats were grumbling on Friday that the signals being sent -- chiefly from Mr. Penn, in his lengthy remarks to reporters aboard a charter flight from Iowa -- suggested that the campaign is more interested in having Sen. Obama brought down than in building up Sen. Clinton.
In almost every Democratic election, Mr. Penn said at one point, "You see people latch on to the new, seemingly fresh candidate, only to then take a sobering look at the choice they have when it comes down to the end of it. I think you're going to see that again."
Sen. Obama's senior strategist, Mr. Axelrod, responds: "Mark Penn is about as subtle as a screen door on a submarine." Mr. Axelrod criticizes the strategy that has had Sen. Clinton emphasizing her "strength and experience" as a contrast with freshman Sen. Obama's relative lack of Washington experience.
That strategy has also had its detractors within the Clinton camp, and her Iowa setback has stoked the anti-Penn sentiment. "I was pretty clear that it's up to the press to fully vet all the candidates," Mr. Penn said in an interview Friday.
Another Clinton supporter, Democratic strategist Karin Johanson, defends the message. "In fairness to them," she says, "as a woman candidate, you have to start out strong and experienced" to clear the bar to be considered a potential commander-in-chief. If Sen. Clinton is elected, she says, "there is not going to be less change with her than there'd be with Obama."
While campaigning in Iowa, Sen. Clinton repeatedly talked about how vital the state's caucus is for the democratic process -- even evoking it as beacon of freedom in the aftermath of Benazir Bhutto's assassination. After her defeat, Mr. Penn and others downplayed the importance of the state. "Iowa doesn't have a record of picking presidents," he said on the flight to New Hampshire. Press secretary Jay Carson added: "Iowa is so small, it's like a mayor's race in a medium-sized city."
Other Clinton advisers have privately acknowledged that they should have worked harder in Iowa to appeal to young voters, rather than let Sen. Obama capture them. Instead, the campaign focused on getting out older voters, particularly women.
Some Clinton insiders were chagrined to see the televised tableau late Thursday as Sen. Clinton gave her concession speech. Behind her were an array of older people, including former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and retired General Wesley Clark, as well as Democratic donors. "This is about youth and change. They don't get it," said one Clinton campaign adviser. Another staffer dismissed the criticism, saying the people on stage had worked hard for Sen. Clinton.
Campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe, also on the plane to New Hampshire, said Sen. Clinton will be putting more emphasis on so-called kitchen-table issues such as the economy, health insurance and mortgage costs. With nearly $120 million in campaign funds, "we have the resources going forward," he said. "We're going to be the nominee for the Democratic party. I feel as strongly about that now as ever."
Although Sen. Obama has a similarly large war chest, Mr. Penn was dismissive: "The only thing Obama has going for him in New Hampshire is some sense of momentum. Let's see whether or not that sustains itself."
Write to Jackie Calmes at jackie.calmes@wsj.com and Amy Chozick at amy.chozick@wsj.com
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119949573104569175.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
How Hard to Hit Obama?</font size></center>
Wall Street Journal
By JACKIE CALMES and AMY CHOZICK
January 5, 2008
MANCHESTER, N.H. -- With little time to recover from Iowa's presidential caucuses before Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, a bruised Hillary Clinton faces her nightmare scenario: Barack Obama could unite anti-Clinton Democrats to seal the party's nomination in coming weeks.
Seven in 10 Iowa Democrats in Thursday night's caucuses supported someone other than New York's Sen. Clinton. Among those who showed up supporting the second-tier candidates, very few listed her as their second choice. In the end, she finished third, losing not just to Sen. Obama but, by a sliver, to John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator who had made the state the linchpin of his populist candidacy.
Attack Aggressively?
Now, the Clinton campaign is scrambling to reassess its strategy, and whether to more aggressively attack Sen. Obama. "Does everyone know everything they need to know about Barack Obama?" her chief strategist, Mark Penn, asked a handful of reporters on a glum overnight flight from Iowa to New Hampshire. "She's fully vetted, fully tested, and I don't think that process has occurred with Barack Obama."
Sen. Clinton echoed him hours later, at a morning rally in a Nashua, N.H., airport hangar. "Of all the people running for president, I've been the most vetted, the most investigated, and -- my goodness -- the most innocent, it turns out," she said to applause.
Obama Has Been Playing Her Fears
In Iowa, Sen. Clinton tried unsuccessfully to overcome her chief vulnerabilities: One, that some Democrats don't like her, or else fear that enough Americans feel that way that she can't win in November. And two, that Democrats are desperate for change after the Bush years and the partisanship of the Clinton years as well.
It is a sentiment that Sen. Obama plays on routinely in his speeches. "We can't afford the same old partisan food fight in Washington," he says. And he alludes to Sen. Clinton's high negatives in polls, in which slightly more Americans see her in a negative light than view her favorably. "I don't want to go into the next election starting off with half the country already not wanting to vote for Democrats," Mr. Obama says on the stump.
Despite attempting to soften her image, Sen. Clinton left some Iowans feeling cold. She swung through Des Moines's Lovejoy Elementary School Thursday night to greet caucus-goers. After she shook hands with Rob Moyers and moved on, he remarked: "I looked into Obama's eyes and he seemed sincere. Now, that looked mechanical. She's like a robot."
The Risk
A campaign strategy viewed as an attack on Sen. Obama risks backfiring on Sen. Clinton, given her already high negatives. That's a particular danger for her now, post-Iowa, with the once-crowded Democratic field clearing; Sen. Obama could become a magnet for Democrats who want to move beyond the Clinton-Bush years. Mr. Edwards has tried to draw those voters, but he lags in funds and organization beyond Iowa. Two other candidates, Sens. Joseph Biden of Delaware and Chris Dodd of Connecticut, have dropped out.
The winnowing of the field opens the way for Illinois Sen. Obama, who triumphed with nearly 38% of Iowa caucus-goers' support -- eight points ahead of his top two rivals -- to build on his momentum. New Hampshire could shape up as friendly turf for Mr. Obama. Independent voters, who have responded to his campaign message of changing Washington, outnumber both Democrats and Republicans in the Granite State. They lean heavily Democratic.
In polls of Iowans entering the caucus sites, Sen. Obama had more support than Sen. Clinton did from younger Democrats and men -- groups known to be weak spots for her. The polls also showed that Sen. Obama was stronger among female voters, a group on whom Sen. Clinton was relying. And he was far and away the choice of voters who said they wanted a candidate who would change Washington.
"I don't consider it as an anti-Clinton constituency; I consider it a pro-change constituency" for Sen. Obama, said his senior strategist, David Axelrod. "To win this election, we need to change our politics and expand our base and attract some disillusioned Republicans and attract more young people -- and all of that happened in Iowa."
After New Hampshire, the Democratic race turns to Nevada's caucuses on Jan. 19 and the Jan. 26 primary in South Carolina. In Nevada, Mr. Obama has already shown appeal in a contest dominated by union workers. In South Carolina, where blacks make up half of the Democratic primary electorate, many are excited about the prospect of America's first black president.
Sen. Clinton vowed on Friday to win here on Tuesday -- just as her husband's strong New Hampshire showing in 1992 made him "the Comeback Kid." But her campaign faces the prospect of losses in some if not all of the other early-voting states.
The major Clinton-Obama showdown will likely come on Feb. 5, which is shaping up as a near-national primary day. More than 20 states will vote, including her home state, New York, his home state, Illinois, and California.
Several Democratic strategists unaffiliated with any campaign said on Friday that Sen. Clinton could lose in the early states and still clinch the nomination on Feb. 5. To do so, they said, she must focus on burnishing her own image in the coming month, and she must resist the temptation to tar Sen. Obama.
"The Clinton campaign needs to play for the long term, and righting the ship in terms of how people see her is more important than beating Obama," says Democratic pollster Geoff Garin, who's not backing any candidate. "I don't think that Hillary Clinton has made clear what the fundamental change is that she would bring about, and why people should trust her to do it."
Mr. Garin contends that Sen. Obama has more clearly sold voters -- in Iowa at least -- that he stands for "changing the way our country works, bringing people together, replacing the politics of cynicism with the politics of hope."
She's Been Warned
As Sen. Clinton opened what will be the shortest campaign ever between the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire's primary, she suggested she will continue to focus on her opponents and to boast of her experience. At a diner here, she told voters that she would be "drawing contrasts between what I've done for 35 years and what my leading opponents have done."
With her was a top New Hampshire supporter, state Sen. Lou D'Allesandro, who warns against going negative: "My advice is, always be positive," he said in an interview afterward. "She has to increase her 'likeability' quotient," he added. "When people meet her one-on-one, they like her very much."
Both inside and outside the Clinton campaign, Democrats were grumbling on Friday that the signals being sent -- chiefly from Mr. Penn, in his lengthy remarks to reporters aboard a charter flight from Iowa -- suggested that the campaign is more interested in having Sen. Obama brought down than in building up Sen. Clinton.
In almost every Democratic election, Mr. Penn said at one point, "You see people latch on to the new, seemingly fresh candidate, only to then take a sobering look at the choice they have when it comes down to the end of it. I think you're going to see that again."
Sen. Obama's senior strategist, Mr. Axelrod, responds: "Mark Penn is about as subtle as a screen door on a submarine." Mr. Axelrod criticizes the strategy that has had Sen. Clinton emphasizing her "strength and experience" as a contrast with freshman Sen. Obama's relative lack of Washington experience.
That strategy has also had its detractors within the Clinton camp, and her Iowa setback has stoked the anti-Penn sentiment. "I was pretty clear that it's up to the press to fully vet all the candidates," Mr. Penn said in an interview Friday.
Another Clinton supporter, Democratic strategist Karin Johanson, defends the message. "In fairness to them," she says, "as a woman candidate, you have to start out strong and experienced" to clear the bar to be considered a potential commander-in-chief. If Sen. Clinton is elected, she says, "there is not going to be less change with her than there'd be with Obama."
While campaigning in Iowa, Sen. Clinton repeatedly talked about how vital the state's caucus is for the democratic process -- even evoking it as beacon of freedom in the aftermath of Benazir Bhutto's assassination. After her defeat, Mr. Penn and others downplayed the importance of the state. "Iowa doesn't have a record of picking presidents," he said on the flight to New Hampshire. Press secretary Jay Carson added: "Iowa is so small, it's like a mayor's race in a medium-sized city."
Other Clinton advisers have privately acknowledged that they should have worked harder in Iowa to appeal to young voters, rather than let Sen. Obama capture them. Instead, the campaign focused on getting out older voters, particularly women.
Some Clinton insiders were chagrined to see the televised tableau late Thursday as Sen. Clinton gave her concession speech. Behind her were an array of older people, including former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and retired General Wesley Clark, as well as Democratic donors. "This is about youth and change. They don't get it," said one Clinton campaign adviser. Another staffer dismissed the criticism, saying the people on stage had worked hard for Sen. Clinton.
Campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe, also on the plane to New Hampshire, said Sen. Clinton will be putting more emphasis on so-called kitchen-table issues such as the economy, health insurance and mortgage costs. With nearly $120 million in campaign funds, "we have the resources going forward," he said. "We're going to be the nominee for the Democratic party. I feel as strongly about that now as ever."
Although Sen. Obama has a similarly large war chest, Mr. Penn was dismissive: "The only thing Obama has going for him in New Hampshire is some sense of momentum. Let's see whether or not that sustains itself."
Write to Jackie Calmes at jackie.calmes@wsj.com and Amy Chozick at amy.chozick@wsj.com
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119949573104569175.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
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This shit's bothering me, so thanks for letting me air out. - One Angry Brotha
Even that was in response to her charges of him being an elitist.
