Any statement that treats the last election as a fair one is not delivered in good faith.That lesser of two evils ain't work last election breh
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Any statement that treats the last election as a fair one is not delivered in good faith.That lesser of two evils ain't work last election breh
in 2020 there is no way the democrats are winning the senate. Maybe 2022. But democrats are not flipping South Carolina, Kentucky. Etc
They could flip Maine but Susan Collins voted with the democrats and she is a 5x times Senator and Maine is very independent.
It's what happens when they put so much weight into Iowa... where they eat fried butter and make life sized butter sculptures of cows..... maybe it would've turned out better if they made it easier for them to count by dressing everyone in livestock costumes....Even when you want to believe in them. They just can't get it together. Near ready to give up on this sht altogether.
And all of this would be moot if your Democrats in power acquiesced to Black people lolPeople are realizing we are now a dictatorship and it’s pointless to vote. Trump will not leave office.
How Trump Could Lose the Election and Remain President
A step-by-step guide to what might happen if he refuses to concede.
At the end of his congressional testimony in February, Michael Cohen, Donald Trump’s former fixer, floated a nightmarish possibility.
“Given my experience working for Mr. Trump,” Cohen said, “I fear that if he loses in 2020, that there will never be a peaceful transition of power.”
Cohen’s comments may seem hyperbolic, but they are worth taking seriously. In the aftermath of 2018, Trump told reporters, “Republicans don’t win, and that’s because of potentially illegal votes.” In a 2016 presidential debate, Trump refused to say whether he would accept defeat. “I’ll keep you in suspense,” he declared. Since that election, Trump has routinely said that his popular vote defeat was the product of “millions and millions” of illegal ballots. Now, facing potential legal jeopardy from ongoing investigations into hush-money payments and any number of apparent financial crimes, he might reasonably conclude that staying in office is the only way to avoid being indicted.
So what would it look like if Trump refused to concede? Is there really a way he could stay in office? It’s unlikely. For starters, successful autocrats rarely lose elections. “They take steps to rig it well in advance,” said Steven Levitsky, a comparative political scientist at Harvard University and the coauthor of How Democracies Die. They pack electoral authorities, jail opponents, and silence unfriendly media outlets. America’s extremely decentralized electoral system and powerful, well-funded opposition makes this very difficult to pull off.
The U.S. also lacks the kind of politicized military that lets some discredited autocrats, like Venezuela’s Nicholás Maduro, hang on. “I can’t imagine the military accepting an effort to turn them into a partisan arm of the executive,” said Robert Mickey, a political scientist at the University of Michigan who researches the history of authoritarianism in the American South.
But while nationwide cheating may be impossible, the Republican Party has proven more than willing to violate democratic norms where it has local control, and not every powerful institution is as neutral as the military. There is a sequence of events, each individually plausible, that would allow Trump to remain president despite losing the election—breaking American democracy in the process.
“I think we know that Trump will certainly, no matter what the result is, be likely to declare that there was fraud and that he was the rightful victor,” said Joseph Fishkin, a law professor at the University of Texas who studies elections.
Let’s assume that Fishkin is right. Here’s what could keep Trump in power.
1. The election is close.
If Trump lost in a blowout, alleging fraud would accomplish little. Even entrenched autocrats are often forced from office when they are heftily defeated.
But that doesn’t mean the race would need to be a redux of 2000, when George W. Bush won the presidency with an official margin of 537 votes, to spark a crisis. Given increasing polarization and the Republican Party’s growing impatience with democratic norms, experts told me the party might challenge even a clear defeat. “I am worried now, given the reaction to 2018, that you could get a dispute over a five-digit number,” said Edward Foley, a law professor and elections expert at Ohio State University.
Others suggested the margin could be even wider. When I asked Mark Tushnet, a constitutional law professor at Harvard University, just how close the election would have to be for Republicans to support Trump in disputing the results, he said, “ ‘Close’—as Trump supporters define it.”
However you construe the word, a close election is well within the realm of possibility. In 2016, Trump won his three pivotal states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—by five-digit numbers. Indeed, most of the country’s twenty-first-century elections have hinged on a few states with narrow margins.
“[2020] will probably be a nail-biter election where the polls are mixed or indeterminate, where it’s really not clear who is going to win,” said Levitsky. “If it’s close, just as Trump kind of did in 2018, Trump could basically claim fraud. And we don’t really have mechanisms to deal with that.”
2. Trump claims fraud, and Republicans back him up.
It is Wednesday morning, November 4, 2020. At 7:15 a.m., after a stressful night of watching the returns trickle in, the Associated Press projects that the Democratic presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania, and, with it, the presidency. Sure enough, it’s a narrow victory—279 electoral votes to 258. When all is said and done, the Democrat wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by only about 77,000 votes combined, the same amount Trump won those states by in 2016.
Donald Trump, who spent the past five months warning about fraud, has been eerily silent for most of the night. But as soon as the Democrat takes the stage to give her victory speech, he unleashes a barrage of tweets claiming that over 100,000 illegal immigrants voted in Michigan and that Philadelphia kept its polls open for hours later than allowed. “Without PHONY voters, I really won!” he tweets. “This is FRAUD!” Needless to say, the president does not call to congratulate his opponent. At an afternoon press conference, Trump’s press secretary announces he will not concede.
What happens next?
“In the best-case scenario, key Republicans would either talk him down or defect from Trump and say, ‘He’s wrong,’ ” Levitsky said. Most of the academics I spoke with also thought that this was likely. “I’m just having trouble wrapping my head around even this polarized and often radicalized Republican Party going along with that,” said Mickey. “This is kind of the limit condition of scenarios and surprise.”
But they acknowledged that defections were far from guaranteed. “Trump is still far and away the most popular Republican,” Levitsky said. “If Sean Hannity is claiming fraud on television and Rush Limbaugh is claiming fraud and Mitch McConnell is not willing to stand up and say, ‘No, there was no fraud,’ then we could have a real crisis.”
Unfortunately, that’s exactly what takes place. After forty-eight hours of silence, the Senate majority leader issues a terse press release in which he says he “recognizes the president’s serious concerns” about the election’s integrity. Some GOP representatives do break ranks and call for Trump to concede (I’m looking at you, Mitt Romney), but most stay silent or back the president’s claims. In a monumental act of gaslighting, Lindsey Graham tells reporters that Democrats are the ones undermining democracy. “They are afraid of a thorough investigation into the fairness of this election,” he declares. “They’ll stop at nothing to get this president out of office.”
3. Polarized courts side with the GOP.
Almost everyone I spoke with told me that, at this point, the election results would be challenged in court. The Trump campaign might sue Democratic-leaning counties for alleged “irregularities” and ask that judges toss out their results. “I can imagine the litigation in Pennsylvania taking the form of saying voting booths in Philadelphia were held open an excessively long time, an unlawfully long time, or the vote counters in some Democratic-leaning county unlawfully refused to count late-filed absentee ballots,” Tushnet said. Victory for Trump would “mean throwing out the ballots and saying that when those are thrown out, Trump gets the state’s electoral votes.” That, in turn, would allow him to remain president.
This argument, and the many others that the Trump campaign could employ, would almost certainly be specious. But Tushnet cautioned against underestimating the power of creative attorneys and motivated reasoning. The legal justification for challenging the returns would develop, he said, “in some ways that we can’t really anticipate now but that lawyers will come up with when it matters.”
The Republican Party has proven more than willing to violate democratic norms. There is a sequence of events, each individually plausible, that would allow Trump to remain president even after a clear defeat.
The academics I spoke with cited Bush v. Gore as evidence. When the U.S. Supreme Court’s Republican-appointed majority shut down the Florida recount, giving the 2000 election to George W. Bush, it did so by reading the Fourteenth Amendment’s equal protection clause in an expansive manner totally at odds with typical conservative jurisprudence. The Court even told other judges that their decision could not be used as precedent.
“The justices, along with everybody else, seemed to view disputed facts through the lens of the place where they have been ideologically,” said Rick Hasen, an election law expert at the University of California Irvine School of Law.
Still, it’s one thing for the courts to interfere in an election with a three-digit margin. It’s something else to invalidate a five-digit win. That would be truly extraordinary.
But it is not unthinkable. Autocrats abroad often rely on packed courts to cling to power, and while the U.S. judiciary is far more independent than that of Honduras or Venezuela, there’s no doubt that Trump has made a substantial imprint. He has appointed a historically high number of federal appeals court judges. He has added two justices to the Supreme Court. One of them, Brett Kavanaugh, has been outwardly partisan, raving during his confirmation hearings that he was the victim of an “orchestrated political hit” designed to function as “revenge on behalf of the Clintons,” fueled by “millions of dollars in money from outside left-wing opposition groups.” He obliquely warned, “What goes around comes around.”
4. Alternatively, Republicans play extreme constitutional hardball.
The courts aren’t the only mechanism Republicans might use to keep Trump in power. The Constitution gives state legislators free rein to decide how to select electors. Currently, most states legally require electors to vote the same way as the people. But in a state with complete Republican control over the government, the legislature and governor could, in theory, pass a bill that strips this power away from citizens between the election and the actual casting of electoral votes. (Indeed, in some instances, the state legislature alone might be able to usurp its constituents.) If this sounds far-fetched, recall that GOP governments in North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin have all recently pulled lame-duck attempts to limit the power of incoming Democratic governors, with varying degrees of success.
To imagine how this would play out, consider Florida, where the GOP controls the governorship and both houses of the state legislature. If the Democratic presidential nominee narrowly won the state in 2020, Trump might cry fraud and demand an investigation—as he did in the aftermath of the state’s 2018 Senate race, when it wasn’t yet clear that Republican Rick Scott had won. The legislature could establish an investigatory commission stacked with partisans and designed to sow doubt about the outcome. Perhaps Kris Kobach, vice chair of Trump’s erstwhile Commission on Election Integrity (and the patron saint of franchise restrictions), would lead it.
The courts might still refuse to intervene. But Trump allies in the Florida legislature could pass a bill giving themselves direct power to appoint the state’s electors. Governor Ron DeSantis, an outspoken Trump ally, could sign it, claiming that the fraud allegations and “controversy” over the tallies make the popular vote untrustworthy, and that he’s merely implementing the voters’ “real” will.
This might sound too cynical, but in 2000, the GOP-controlled Florida legislature considered something similar. “They were effectively saying, ‘Hey, if it turns out Gore wins in court, we’re not going to accept that, and we’re going to assert an authority to appoint the electors directly,’ ” said Edward Foley, at Ohio State. Such a move would also invite a Fourteenth Amendment challenge, this time on behalf of Democrats. But it’s unclear if the conservative Supreme Court would intervene.
Foley, for his part, is more concerned about this kind of scenario than he is about judicial manipulation. “Judges are fact based and evidence based,” he said. “We know that Justice Clarence Thomas is a very different person than Justice Sonia Sotomayor, but I do think that with most election results they would agree as to what the answer was.” But he worries that politicians might refuse to accept the Court’s decision. “The judicial process is going to be slower than the Twitter process,” Foley told me. “If the Twitter process forces or causes politicians to dig in, then can a unanimous judiciary unstick the politicians?”
The Twelfth Amendment of the Constitution gives Congress final say over who becomes president. In some instances, the procedures for how Congress handles election disputes are clear. If there are three or more candidates and nobody wins a majority of electors, for example, the House decides who wins. But if it’s a two-way race where both candidates claim an Electoral College majority, Foley said, it’s unclear which chamber has the last word.
What would happen next is anyone’s guess. But it wouldn’t be pretty. “I think you could have a long, drawn-out crisis in which our institutions lose credibility,” Levitsky said. Even if Trump were eventually forced out, “we’ll be left with a situation where maybe 30, 35 percent of our population believes the election was rigged.”
It’s in this kind of crisis that Michael Cohen’s fears are most likely to be realized. “I could imagine some rioting, some civil violence,” said John Carey, a political scientist at Dartmouth who studies comparative democracy and who cofounded Bright Line Watch, which monitors the health of American democracy. “We just can’t imagine all the possibilities.”
Hopefully, we won’t have to. Trump may lose decisively, rendering his claims of foul play empty. He may win. Or he may lose a tight race and cry foul, but still ultimately accept defeat. In the aftermath of the midterms, for example, Trump groused about fraud without seriously contesting the outcome.
Trump, of course, wasn’t on the ballot in 2018. Losing in 2020 would be far more personal. But even if Trump refused to concede, it doesn’t mean he’d manage to remain in office. John Roberts has worried publicly about the credibility of the Supreme Court. It seems unlikely that he would “save” Trump from a less-than-ambiguous electoral defeat. Democratic governors in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin form a formidable roadblock against local Republican power grabs. Faced with incontrovertible evidence that Trump lost—and no plausible pathway to mess with the outcome—Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, and Mike Pence would probably tell Trump to pack his bags.
And if Trump still refused to go?
“I’m not sure which branch it would be, but it must be the case that somebody would be responsible for taking one elbow and somebody would be responsible for taking the other elbow,” Carey said. “I can imagine the feet going kind of crazy. But I like to think that it would be without too much damage to anyone.”
You give these people too much credit my man.But how did she not know dude was gay?
My Brother wait till SC primary niggas not gonna go with it and it will become a referendum on black folks and homosexuality.... BOOK THAT SHIT!!!it is plain as a summer day that Buttigieg is a plant/Manchurian candidate and the fact the democrats rigged the primary to try to make him the winner is the first step in executing their agenda.
And if you don’t support or vote for him they will call you a coon, homophobic, or trump supporter.
You do the math or just talking crazy? Who said anything about SC or Kentucky homie? I think Texas is going to be the upset.
Wowwwww
In this day and age this doesn’t make any sense! I bet their executives made a lot of money though and they put no money into R&D. How come their IT team had no idea on how to rollout this app! What a bunch of dumbasses! Its really not that hard with the proper vetted people (IT team and CTO) in place. This shouldn’t have happened. C’mon!
This Pete guy is very divisive and because of who he is — a gay man. The White House isn’t ready for that. Oh, you might say that the White House wasn’t ready for a black guy neither, but that is bullshit! Go fuck yourself.
Lol Texas is not going blue. Maybe in 2030. But the republicans recaptured a important special election that would give hints on 2020.
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The Humbling of Democrats in Texas
Republicans in the state were caught napping in 2016 and 2018. They came back to life last night in a key special election.amp.theatlantic.com
Any statement that treats the last election as a fair one is not delivered in good faith.
It’s all a scam. They did all that shit to kill the thunder from Bernie
ManeTime to mute all of the trolls.
Of course
You're not giving Obama enough credit. He was a monster. A political force of nature. Stopped Clinton in her tracks. Although the media loved Obama when he came on the scene in 2004 and gave him tons of free press, it didn't feel forced like with Pete.Again Obama got lucky. He took over one of the biggest worst recession to hit the United States since 1929.
So after Bush people did not care. People wanted something new.
If Bush left with a strong economy and low employment. There is no way in hell Obama would have won . He fucked country up so bad that people were like shit fuck it I will take a black men.
With Pete ButtPlug, There is nothing special about him besides that he is gay and plus the economy is good so I don’t see people trying to switch the have a gay president. No way in hell. America is way to conservative
If folks relying on Ohio, they going to be in for some 2004 shit. Folks just are like 'blah' out here.Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and Tennessee are all better options than 90% white Iowa. A good mix of red and blue with more diverse racial populations than Iowa. The strategy needs to be battle ground states not the same ol corn hole hicks.
The Dems need to go more diverse states to start their caucus in future presidential cycles. Having a 90% Cac state voting on a diverse party like the Dems just ain't gonna fly no more if the party is smart.
Them niggas coming from all anglesYou can't be fucking serious lol
Obama is like King TutYou're not giving Obama enough credit. He was a monster. A political force of nature. Stopped Clinton in her tracks. Although the media loved Obama when he came on the scene in 2004 and gave him tons of free press, it didn't feel forced like with Pete.
Obama played the post-racial card so fucking well. The perfect 'black friend' that liberals like. He makes them feel good without making them feel guilty. He was able to win over the midwest with his post-racial kick because he just relied on his skin color to be enough for black voters, not his talk. No promises that would have turned those cacs off, but he did talk to them about jobs and shit they wanted to hear.
If folks relying on Ohio, they going to be in for some 2004 shit. Folks just are like 'blah' out here.It ain't like cacs rolling around in Trump gear and talking shit. That's the narrative pushed from these coastal hippies who don't know shit and have been wrong dozens of times about recent political events.
It's life like it has been forever for black folks out here. You either making it or you ain't. Folks seem deflated after Obama and the sky didn't fall for them under Trump. Not to mention pastors on the fucking take like 2004.
Dems fucked up big time not grooming a candidate to put asses in the seats. Like someone said, you can't scare black voters.
Address my other post in this thread.And all of this would be moot if your Democrats in power acquiesced to Black people lol
Yall ain't shit without the Black vote.
Ain't enough fags (who are WS) first
And Latinos who vote 35-40% Rep anyway
Lol to steer a National election.
Blacks folks just ain't gonna vote out of fear.
Then explain how voting republicans out is because of fear. I know you aren’t this dumb.None of this is true but fits your excuses for supporting Trump.
In your opinion the hood will be the same regardless of who is in power. Neither will give specific policies for the Black community. It’s a wash.
Now I present to you the Republican environmental policies directly killing the Black community disproportionately to other races.
The nation's air on the whole has become cleaner in the past 70 years, but those benefits are seen primarily in whiter, higher-income areas, said Kerry Ard, an associate professor of environmental sociology at The Ohio State University, who will present her research today (Aug. 10, 2019.)
Ard used a variety of detailed data sources to examine air pollution and the demographics of the people who lived in 1-kilometer-square areas throughout a six-state region from 1995 through 1998. These are the four years after President Bill Clinton's 1994 executive order that focused attention on the environmental and health effects of federal actions on minority and low-income populations. The act's goal was "achieving environmental protection for all communities."
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Low-income, black neighborhoods still hit hard by air pollution
Disease-causing air pollution remains high in pockets of America -- particularly those where many low-income and African-American people live, a disparity highlighted in recent research.www.sciencedaily.com
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EPA Finds Black Americans Face More Health-Threatening Air Pollution - Inside Climate News
Stay informed about the latest climate, energy and environmental justice news by email. Sign up for the ICN newsletter. Black Americans are subjected to higher levels of air pollution than white Americans regardless of their wealth, researchers with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency...insideclimatenews.org
With Environmental Rollbacks, Communities of Color Continue to Bear Disproportionate Pollution Burden
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With Environmental Rollbacks, Communities of Color Continue to Bear Disproportionate Pollution Burden
In many ways, Juneteenth represents how justice in the United States has repeatedly been delayed for black people, and access to a healthy, safe environment is no exception. This history makes the current administration’s repeated, unlawful attempts to weaken our nation’s bedrock environmental...www.law.nyu.edu
Do you comprehend this information? Trumps EPA policies are directly killing more Black people.
President Trump has made eliminating federal regulations a priority. His administration, with help from Republicans in Congress, has often targeted environmental rules it sees as burdensome to the fossil fuel industry and other big businesses.
A New York Times analysis, based on research from Harvard Law School, Columbia Law School and other sources, counts more than 90 environmental rules and regulations rolled back under Mr. Trump.
Our list represents two types of policy changes: rules that were officially reversed and rollbacks still in progress.
58
37
95
ROLLBACKS COMPLETED ROLLBACKS IN PROCESS TOTAL ROLLBACKS
Air pollution and emissions 16 9 25
Drilling and extraction 10 9 19
Infrastructure and planning 11 1 12
Animals 7 3 10
Toxic substances and safety 5 3 8
Water pollution 4 6 10
Other 5 6 11
The Trump administration has often used a “one-two punch” when rolling back environmental rules, said Caitlin McCoy, a fellow in the Environmental and Energy Law Program at Harvard Law School who tracks regulatory rollbacks. “First a delay rule to buy some time, and then a final substantive rule.”
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Tracking regulatory changes in the second Trump administration | Brookings
How much regulation is happening under the Trump administration? This tracker helps you monitor a selection of delayed, repealed, and new rules, notable guidance and policy implementations, and important court battles covering energy, health, labor, and more.www.brookings.edu
Stop claiming you are pro black
The Democrats are literally doing their best to repeat 2016 where they piss off a large contingent of Bernie supporters that'll make them feel jaded enough to sit out the general election.
In a precinct in Iowa, a large number of Bernie votes switched to Deval Patrick or Tom Steyer
You're not giving Obama enough credit. He was a monster. A political force of nature. Stopped Clinton in her tracks. Although the media loved Obama when he came on the scene in 2004 and gave him tons of free press, it didn't feel forced like with Pete.
Obama played the post-racial card so fucking well. The perfect 'black friend' that liberals like. He makes them feel good without making them feel guilty. He was able to win over the midwest with his post-racial kick because he just relied on his skin color to be enough for black voters, not his talk. No promises that would have turned those cacs off, but he did talk to them about jobs and shit they wanted to hear.
If folks relying on Ohio, they going to be in for some 2004 shit. Folks just are like 'blah' out here.It ain't like cacs rolling around in Trump gear and talking shit. That's the narrative pushed from these coastal hippies who don't know shit and have been wrong dozens of times about recent political events.
It's life like it has been forever for black folks out here. You either making it or you ain't. Folks seem deflated after Obama and the sky didn't fall for them under Trump. Not to mention pastors on the fucking take like 2004.
Dems fucked up big time not grooming a candidate to put asses in the seats. Like someone said, you can't scare black voters.
The Democratic party is just too liberal and moist.
Too righteous and light hearted.
Pussies run the party and it's turning voters off.
You have to match aggression with aggression and not with pink pussy hats.
The Democrats are also too busy trying to chaseFeminist and Homos run the party behind the scenes. Trump should be a easy candidate to beat but what’s killing them is that they are letting there emotions and how they feel about trump, make them do stupid moves.
Just like impeachment. You know the GOP senate will never convict him. So why go through all that bullshit just so he can brag and say it was all a hoax. In the eyes of the public it makes you look stupid and feel like your wasting tax payers money and time.
Address my other post in this thread.
Then explain how voting republicans out is because of fear. I know you aren’t this dumb.