Re: Patrick Kennedy and Cynthia McKinney
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McKinney's grip on district weakens</font size>
<font size="4">Johnson picking up votes in her traditional strongholds</font size></center>
By SONJI JACOBS, MAE GENTRY
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 07/24/06
U.S. Rep. Cynthia McKinney lost support last week in her political stronghold, south DeKalb County, forcing her into a runoff, an analysis of election results shows.
Former DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson, who surprised many with his strong showing in the Democratic primary, made inroads in the predominantly black neighborhoods where McKinney traditionally has enjoyed staunch support. And he carried many precincts in largely white north DeKalb, according to the analysis by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Republican Catherine Davis, considered a long shot, in the November election.
McKinney was expected to win Tuesday's primary easily, but she won 47 percent of the ballots cast to Johnson's 44 percent. Alpharetta businessman John F. Coyne III, received 8.5 percent.
The AJC analysis looked at voter turnout in DeKalb, where most 4th District voters live. The AJC also compared Tuesday's election returns in 120 DeKalb precincts with the results of McKinney's 2002 race, which she lost to Denise Majette. (The Georgia Legislature drew new congressional lines in 2005, so only 120 precincts were the same in 2006 as in 2002.)
The analysis found:
• This year, 49 percent fewer voters cast ballots for McKinney than in 2002. That indicates those voters either did not cast ballots Tuesday, or voted for another candidate.
• Overall turnout was significantly lower this year than in 2002. Then, 47 percent of 4th District voters who live in DeKalb went to the polls; this year only 26 percent cast ballots.
• Support for McKinney dropped by an average of 4.5 percentage points across the 120 precincts. She experienced the biggest decline in south DeKalb precincts. In the precincts where McKinney was strongest in 2002, she still won majorities this year but by a lower percentage.
• Johnson had the strongest support in predominantly white north DeKalb, but he received a lower percentage of the vote in many of those precincts than Majette did in 2002. The third opponent, Coyne, received 10 to 20 percent of the vote in many of those precincts.
While the analysis gives some insight into what happened Tuesday, it's difficult to predict how many voters will go to polls for the runoff or how they will cast their ballots. Runoffs are known for very low voter turnouts.
Some south DeKalb voters who supported Johnson had backed McKinney in the past. Reginald Bolton, 47, who lives in southeast Atlanta and is self-employed, said he voted for Johnson on Tuesday, though he has voted for McKinney in other elections. Bolton said he got to know Johnson while working on a neighborhood project when the candidate was a commissioner.
"It was more of a vote for Hank Johnson," he said. "I don't have anything against Cynthia McKinney."
John Evans, McKinney's campaign manager, said low turnout helped prevent the incumbent from winning the primary. He also thought that traditional Republican voters "crossed-over" and voted in the Democratic primary against McKinney, but that data will not be available for several weeks.
"Naturally, there were some precincts where we surrendered too many votes," Evans said, "and we'll have to make that up by getting our message out, and getting out the vote."
Deb McGhee Speights, Johnson's press secretary, said he made gains in McKinney's stronghold because voters in that area are aware of his work as a commissioner. "I think it's important to remember that this is Hank's district as well," Speights said. "He's been elected twice [as a commissioner]."
In many of McKinney's strongest precincts, Johnson won a higher percentage of the vote last week than Majette did in 2002, the analysis shows. For example, McKinney lost about 20 percentage points from her majority at the County Line precinct in Ellenwood.
At the Kelley Lake Elementary precinct, McKinney's numbers slipped from 85 percent in 2002 to 75 percent this time. In 2002, Majette won 13 percent of the vote in Kelley Lake. Johnson received 22 percent last week.
But Melvin Meadows, a 59-year-old electrician who lives in the neighborhood, said he voted for McKinney, and he plans to vote for her again Aug. 8.
"She doesn't hold back or bite her tongue," Meadows said. "She's a strong black woman."
McKinney served five consecutive terms in Congress until 2002, when Majette unseated her in the primary. McKinney had created an uproar when she questioned whether President Bush had advance knowledge of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and did nothing to prevent them.
Two years later, McKinney made a comeback, beating five other Democrats to reclaim her seat while Majette unsuccessfully ran for the U.S. Senate. Many Americans were beginning to question the war in Iraq, which McKinney had criticized.
Then she had a run-in with a U.S. Capitol police officer in March. A police report stated McKinney hit the officer when he refused to let her into the Capitol. McKinney said the officer had grabbed her, and she blamed his failure to recognize her on the fact that she is an African-American. A grand jury declined to indict the congresswoman. Still, the incident created a wave of anti-McKinney sentiment.
Some experts say McKinney can win Aug. 8.
"I never count Cynthia out," said political analyst Bill Shipp. "Except for the Majette race, she's got magic for turning voters out. So while Johnson did surprisingly well, she's a very difficult candidate for anyone to beat."
Shipp said one strategy for Johnson might be to gather support in the Rockdale and Gwinnett County precincts that are new to the district. When the Legislature redrew the district, it moved out other precincts where McKinney had enjoyed her least support. That move, theoretically, should have helped her at the polls.
Johnson nipped McKinney in the Gwinnett portion, getting 847 votes to her 836, while Coyne received 371. Rockdale voters gave Johnson a clear majority, with 2,194 votes to McKinney's 1,592 and Coyne's 837.
Johnson has catapulted himself onto the national political stage by forcing McKinney into a runoff. Elected in 2000 to represent southeastern DeKalb, Johnson resigned his commission seat in April, saying, "I want to be the pothole congressman who takes care of the constituents back home."
His message appealed to voters in north DeKalb, where Majette enjoyed strong support in 2002. Johnson took more than 70 percent of the vote in 21 northside precincts, including Lakeside High, Briarlake Elementary and Winnona Park Elementary. Still, voter turnout in those precincts — mostly 20 to 30 percent — was substantially lower than in 2002, when some precincts exceeded 60 percent.
Coyne, who is white, said he courted white voters in north DeKalb and Gwinnett. He has declined to endorse Johnson or McKinney. The analysis suggests Coyne voters are more likely to cast their ballots for Johnson. Johnson did better than McKinney in majority white neighborhoods.
Norman Werling, 70, of Stone Mountain, votes at the North Hairston precinct, where Johnson won 49 percent of the vote and McKinney took 45. The retiree had voted for McKinney five times but switched to Majette in 2002 because of McKinney's comments about Sept. 11. In the 2004 general election, he returned to the McKinney camp. "I just can't bring myself to vote for somebody who supports George W. Bush and his policies," he said.
This time, though, Werling backed Johnson, saying he had tired of McKinney's antics.
McKinney supporter Ruthie Pumphrey, a 61-year-old nurse, said she believes the incumbent's outspokenness has done some damage but said McKinney has constituents' interests at heart.
"So many people get angry with what she says, but she speaks her mind," Pumphrey said. "You don't have to wonder where she stands."
— Database editor David A. Milliron contributed to this article.
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/dekalb/stories/0724metfourth.html