Can the Taliban be toppled ?

  • Thread starter Thread starter Hung Lo
  • Start date Start date
Short answer: NO!

Seriously, there are too many of them in too many places, and they are well connected with their different factions.

We should bring our men and women home.
 
NOBODY can defeat Afghanistan. for one thing, theres nothing to defeat. theres not a fucking thing over there even worth fighting over. Any world leader who commits troops to this farce is a moron.
 
They've been toppled; the better question might be in what manner can they be held in check.

QueEx
 
<font size="5"><center>
Taliban claims victory near Islamabad</font size>


<font size="4">Control of the Buner district brings the Taliban insurgency
within 60 miles of the Pakistan Capital</font size></center>


CNN
By Ivan Watson
April 22, 2009


ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CNN) -- Taliban militants who implemented Islamic law in Pakistan's violence-plagued Swat Valley last week have now taken control of a neighboring district.

Control of the Buner district brings the Taliban closer to the capital, Islamabad, than they have been since they started their insurgency. Islamabad is 60 miles (96 km) from the district.

"Our strength is in the hundreds," said Moulana Mohammad Khalil, as heavily armed men openly patrolled the roads in pickup trucks, singing Islamic anthems.

The militants had taken control of the area to ensure that Islamic law, or sharia, is properly imposed, Khalil said.

The government called the advance into Buner a breach of a recently-signed peace agreement.

"Now Taliban are violating the peace agreement, and if they continue the government will take strict action and not allow the Taliban to create a parallel government in that area," said Mian Iftikhar, a spokesman for the regional administration in the North West Frontier Province, where Buner is located.

Last week, the Taliban imposed sharia law in Swat Valley as part of a peace deal with the government. Under the Taliban's strict interpretation, the law prevents women from being seen in public without their husbands or fathers.

Earlier this month, the militant movement made forays into Buner and clashed with locals before withdrawing.

Now the Taliban appear to have returned in force -- a move that indicates the recent government concessions may have emboldened the militants to expand their reach.

The Pakistani government appears unable or unwilling to stop the Taliban's steady advance deeper into the territory of this nuclear-armed country.

In the days after the government's April 13 decision to implement sharia law in Swat, pro-Taliban clerics have staged rallies in Swat and Islamabad. They have demanded the imposition of Islamic law across Pakistan and beyond.

Speaking before an audience of tens of thousands in the Swat Valley town of Mingora on Sunday, cleric Sufi Muhammed declared democracy and Pakistan's judicial system "un-Islamic."

A Taliban spokesman in Swat went a step further Tuesday, calling anyone opposed to his strict interpretation of Islam a non-Muslim

"Let the judges and the lawyers go to Islamic university," Muslim Khan said. After "they learn Islamic rules, Islamic regulation, they can continue to work."

The rise of the Taliban in Swat has alarmed and frightened some members of local civil society there.

"This is a time bomb for the country," said Aftab Alam, the head of the lawyers' association in Swat district.

Meanwhile, in another Taliban-run region called Orakzai, details emerged of militants forcing a small community of Sikhs to pay a jaziya, or "minority tax," of 10.5 million rupees (roughly $18,000) earlier this month.

Khan said if his vision of an Islamic society is fulfilled in Pakistan, terror mastermind Osama Bin Laden will be welcome to travel and live openly here. "Sure, he's a Muslim, he can go anywhere," Khan said.

Khan added that he would like to see sharia law implemented beyond Pakistan, even in America, a country he knows intimately. For four years, the Taliban spokesman lived in the United States, working as a painter near Boston, Massachusetts.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/04/22/pakistan.taliban/index.html
 
This is a good post and this issue is HUGE. That Swat Valley agreement is an epic fail for the Pakistani government. Check this image out..

4_CORRECTION__Pakistan_Militant_Haven.sff.jpg

Pro-Taliban cleric Sufi Muhammad who mediated a peace agreement between government and Taliban, addresses his supporters in Mingora, capital of Pakistan's troubled Swat Valley, Sunday April 19, 2009. Al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden and other militants bent on overthrowing Arab governments and battling U.S. troops in Afghanistan will be welcomed and protected in Pakistan's Swat Valley, a Taliban spokesman Muslim Khan said days after Pakistan agreed to impose Islamic law there to end bloodshed. Associated Press © 2009



This cat is pulling some Obama sized crowds, although there is no way to tell if these are supporters or just people coming out to see whats up..its still an alarming sight.

Here is an article from thenation.com that sets the stage.
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/dreyfuss/428941?rel=hp_picks

Talibanistan in Pakistan

The real crisis in central and south Asia -- the one in Pakistan -- is going from really bad to much, much worse.

Let's review some of the more recent reports from Pakistan.

Earlier this month, in a terrifying analysis of the situation in Pakistan, the New York Times reported:


Some analysts here and in Washington are already putting forward apocalyptic timetables for the country. "We are running out of time to help Pakistan change its present course toward increasing economic and political instability, and even ultimate failure," said a recent report by a task force of the Atlantic Council that was led by former Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. The report, released in February, gave the Pakistani government 6 to 12 months before things went from bad to dangerous.

A specialist in guerrilla warfare, David Kilcullen, who advised Gen. David H. Petraeus when General Petraeus was the American commander in Iraq, offered a more dire assessment. Pakistan could be facing internal collapse within six months, he said.


An even more frightening and graphic description of the spreading Islamist movement there was provided last week by the Wall Street Journal:


Thousands of Islamist militants are pouring into Pakistan's Swat Valley and setting up training camps here, quickly making it one of the main bases for Taliban fighters and raising their threat to the government in the wake of a controversial peace deal.

The number of militants in the valley swelled in the months before the deal with the Taliban was struck, and they continue to move in, say Pakistani and U.S. officials. They now estimate there are between 6,000 and 8,000 fighters in Swat, nearly double the number at the end of last year.


The Taliban fighters are spreading from the ungoverned tribal areas (the seven agencies of FATA) to the settled areas, starting with the Swat Valley, a key part of the Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan proper. And from there, they are spreading into neighboring districts, even as they carry out terrorist attacks in key cities, such as Lahore and Islamabad. They are butchering people, beheading police officers, and terrorizing the citizens, who have no way to fight back. The Journal notes that in Swat, one central plaza "has become known among residents as 'Slaughter Square' because the Taliban have begun using it to dump bodies after executions."

Adds the Journal:


Swat now offers a glimpse of the Taliban's vision for Pakistan. They have taken control of the local government and the police, who have been ordered to shed their uniforms in favor of the traditional Shalwar Kameez, an outfit comprising a long shirt and loose trousers. They also have seized Swat's emerald mines, which extract millions of dollars a year in gemstones.

At barbershops, notices warn men not to shave their beards. Women are no longer allowed to leave their homes without their husbands or male blood relatives. Girls' schools have been reopened after initially being closed but the students must be covered from head to toe, and Taliban officials routinely inspect classrooms for violators.


In an April 14 piece entitled "United Militants Threaten Pakistan's Populous Heart," the Times describes the spreading Taliban cancer in Pakistan thus:


Taliban insurgents are teaming up with local militant groups to make inroads in Punjab, the province that is home to more than half of Pakistanis, reinvigorating an alliance that Pakistani and American authorities say poses a serious risk to the stability of the country. ...

Telltale signs of creeping militancy abound in a belt of towns and villages near here that a reporter visited last week. Militants have gained strength considerably in the district of Dera Ghazi Khan, which is a gateway both to Taliban-controlled areas and the heart of Punjab, the police and local residents say. Many were terrified.

Some villages, just north of here, are so deeply infiltrated by militants that they are already considered no-go zones by their neighbors.

In at least five towns in southern and western Punjab, including the midsize hub of Multan, barber shops, music stores and Internet cafes offensive to the militants' strict interpretation of Islam have received threats. Traditional ceremonies that include drumming and dancing have been halted in some areas. Hard-line ideologues have addressed large crowds to push their idea of Islamic revolution. Sectarian attacks, dormant here since the 1990s, have erupted once again.


Yesterday, the Washington Post carried a brilliant piece by Pamela Constable that reported on the results so far of Pakistan's deal to cede power in Swat to the Taliban and its allies:


A potentially troubling era dawned Sunday in Pakistan's Swat Valley, where a top Islamist militant leader, emboldened by a peace agreement with the federal government, laid out an ambitious plan to bring a "complete Islamic system" to the surrounding northwest region and the entire country.

Speaking to thousands of followers in an address aired live from Swat on national news channels, cleric Sufi Mohammed bluntly defied the constitution and federal judiciary, saying he would not allow any appeals to state courts under the system of sharia, or Islamic law, that will prevail there as a result of the peace accord signed by the president Tuesday.


The Post also reported the release of Maulana Abdel Aziz, the fiery, pro-Taliban leader of the Red Mosque in Islamabad that was invaded and shut down last year. He's back home, and preaching to thousands of fanatics. The Post added:


Together, these rallying cries seemed to create an arc of radical religious energy between the turbulent, Taliban-plagued northwest region and the increasingly vulnerable federal capital, less than 100 miles to the east. They also appeared to pose a direct, unprecedented religious challenge to modern state authority in the Muslim nation of 176 million.

So President Obama is beefing up US forces next door in Afghanistan. By doing so, he's pushing some Taliban militants back across the border into Pakistan. (Unlike Afghanistan, which has no strategic value to anyone except some pipeline builders, Pakistan is a vastly important nation with nuclear weapons.) By catapulting drone attacks on FATA villages, he's pushing militants further east into Pakistan proper, and the US escalation has so far had the effect of uniting the Afghan Taliban, the Pakistan Taliban, and various pro-Taliban militias into a unified fighting force. We're also providing recruiting posters for Pakistani fundamentalists.

A year ago, I would have said that the idea that Muslim fundamentalists could seize control of Pakistan, a relatively modern and urbane country, was laughable. No more. I'm not sure that I agree with Kilcullen that Pakistan could collapse in six months, but it's not impossible.

Make no mistake, though: this is the most dangerous problem in the world.
 
Toppled from controling a particular area.... sure, but it would be temporary unless the same forces that toppled them stick around in the sufficient numbers... pretty much forever. ...and nobody wants that shit.

Can they be wiped out totally, like never coming back? Most likely not; just like Al Queida. Anytime mufuckas will happily live in caves for years while waiting for a chance to engage their enemy...AND they feel that God is telling them to do it and will reward them for it... nah, they won't be wiped out.
 
Taliban raising nuclear fears

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Pakistan said Friday that Taliban militants have completely withdrawn from the Buner district outside Pakistan's capital, which they seized control of earlier this week raising international concerns.

The reported withdrawal -- which was disputed by a human rights group monitoring the area -- comes after a Taliban land grab sounded alarms worldwide about the possibility of terrorists taking co More..ntrol of the country.

Syed Mohammed Javed, commissioner of the Malakand Division which includes Buner, said the Taliban withdrew without any conditions. He said they had violated a peace agreement signed two months ago.

Earlier in the day, Taliban spokesman Muslim Khan told CNN that the militants would pull back from the district.

Pakistani Express TV showed live footage of armed and masked Taliban militants in Buner, loading pick-up trucks and driving away.

But Amnesty International's regional chief said people in the area were reporting a different scenario.

"What we're hearing from people in Buner ... is that the Taliban that have moved out are the non-local ones," Sam Zarifi, Amnesty's Asia Pacific director, told CNN. "So the local branch of the Taliban are still in place in Buner."

The human rights agency issued a report on Friday raising concerns about Taliban rule in Buner, which it says includes a ban on music and mandatory beards for all men.

Another concern is the swath of destruction to Buner's civilian infrastructure. Zarifi said schools, courts and medical facilities have been shut down under the Taliban's control. *

Zarifi said he thinks the test for Pakistan's government is not a military defeat over the Taliban, but "whether the schools will once again open, whether the health units will once again operate (in Buner)."

Earlier this week, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that nuclear-armed Pakistan was in danger of falling into terrorist hands.

Before the Taliban's apparent withdrawal Friday, a local Pakistani official expressed doubt about whether the militants would leave, as they pledged to local elders on Thursday.

"Nobody can trust them," Sardar Hussain Babik, the provincial education minister, said by phone from Buner.

The Taliban have broken promises before and probably would do so again, he said.

Sufi Muhammed, an Islamist fundamentalist leader who has been negotiating on behalf of the Taliban, was overseeing the withdrawal, police said.

Taliban militants surged into Buner this week. Takeover of the district brought the Taliban closer to the capital than they had been since they started the insurgency.

Militants subsequently locked up courthouses, seized court documents, and battled Pakistani troops who were sent to protect residents.

The militants said they took control of the district to ensure that Islamic law, or sharia, was properly imposed. The Pakistani government called the land grab a breach of a recent peace agreement.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani told the national assembly Friday that the military could stop the Taliban and that the country's nuclear weapons were safe.

"If anybody challenges the writ of the government, then we will react," Gilani said. "Yesterday, I heard that [the Taliban] had reached Buner and close to Islamabad. Do we not have any courage? Does this parliament not have moral courage to stop them? The defense of the country is in strong hands. Our nuclear program is in safe hands
 
Re: Taliban raising nuclear fears

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Islamic law ushers in reign of terror
in Pakistan's Swat valley</font size></center>




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McClatchy Newspapers
By Saeed Shah
April 30, 2009


MINGORA, Pakistan — Two weeks after the Pakistani government capitulated to Islamist demands and imposed Islamic law throughout the Swat valley, armed militants are patrolling the streets of the district capital and masked gunmen have taken control of outlying districts, where they're terrorizing residents and using intimidation to close girls' schools.

Along major roads in the onetime tourist destination about 100 miles north of the capital, Islamabad, Pakistani Taliban have set up checkpoints, while in the towns they've looted homes and stolen cars and vehicles belonging to charitable organizations, residents told McClatchy.

The Pakistani government has portrayed the deal that it struck with the militants in February, which President Asif Ali Zardari signed on April 13, as the means to re-establish the writ of the state. Residents and officials said, however that the Taliban appear to be in control and are pushing Swat toward becoming an independent extremist fiefdom.

"The Taliban have tasted power. They will not give that back," said one Mingora teacher, who asked not to be identified for fear of retaliation by the extremists. "They have committed so many atrocities since 2007 that they can't give up power, they would not be safe. People are just waiting for the day they can take revenge (on the Taliban)."

The Pakistan army Thursday continued its operation to dislodge the Taliban from the adjacent district of Buner, where they moved from Swat early this month, but the Taliban captured a village, Sultanwas, and were reported to be holding the entire population captive.

Despite the fact the Taliban are openly carrying arms in violation of the accord, and in the face of repeated U.S. warnings that extremists are aiming to seize power in Pakistan, the government and army have shown no sign that they intend to retake Swat by force.

Even without leaving Mingora, the seat of district administration in the Swat valley, flagrant breaches of the peace accord with the Taliban are visible.

On the back road to Buner from Mingora, near the village of Kokarie, about a mile from the outskirts of town, fierce young Taliban manned an impromptu checkpoint earlier this week.

Half a dozen bearded militants, with AK-47 rifles slung over their shoulders, ammunition vests and walkie-talkies, stopped traffic and searched cars. What they were looking for was unclear, but locals said apparently they were there just to show that they're in control.

On the main road in and out of Mingora, armed Taliban were on the roadside in the suburbs of Balogram and Odigram, seemingly monitoring the situation. Residents of the suburbs said Taliban are present in much greater numbers in the side streets, occupying homes and public buildings and posting their armed comrades outside to keep watch.

Under the accord, Pakistan imposed Sharia law in return for peace, a bargain that many liberal Pakistanis and Washington consider a form of surrender by the Pakistani state. The accord states that the Taliban will "not display weapons in public" and "recognize the writ of the government."

"The peace deal has given them (the Taliban) a long life," said Shaukat Saleem, a human rights activist in Mingora. "Before, they could not roam freely in Mingora because there was a (military) operation on."

The agreement with the militants has stopped the worst of the violence, and schools have re-opened. During an 18-month rampage through Swat that ended in February, the Taliban butchered and plundered their way through the valley, blowing up nearly 200 schools, banning girls from education and barring women from markets.

Beheadings were a favorite execution style, especially for police officers and soldiers. Residents of Mingora would wake up to find headless corpses dumped in the town's main square.

Beyond Mingora, which lies at the bottom of the long Swat valley, the district is almost completely in Taliban hands, residents reported.

In Bahrain, a small town about 40 miles north of Mingora, Taliban arrived for the first time in the beginning of April. More than 50 armed militants, wearing masks, are now stationed in and around the town, with two checkpoints, residents told McClatchy. Last Monday, they shot and killed a police officer in Bahrain and threw his body in the river, locals said. Many other police officers fled or remain confined to the police station.

"Bahrain was better off before the (peace) deal," said one resident, who requested anonymity because he lives among the Taliban. "They (the Taliban) will remain and now they will be more forceful because they have the legitimacy of law behind them."

In Bahrain, most girls stopped going to school over the last week after threats from the local Taliban, and most female teachers have given up work, residents said. Shops selling music CDs have been forced to close, and barbers can no longer offer customers a shave. All stores and restaurants are compelled to close during prayer times, residents said.

An official from the North West Frontier Province administration, which is supposed to govern Swat, admitted that state officials with executive powers aren't functioning outside Mingora.

"If the government machinery is not even present (outside Mingora), how can there be any writ of the state?" asked the official, who couldn't be identified as he wasn't authorized to speak to the media. "Another military operation would have been a big disaster. We had to stop the beheadings, we didn't have other options (than the peace deal)."

The accord, negotiated by the provincial government, called for the creation of Islamic courts in Swat. Provincial government leaders said Thursday that the new courts would be functional within two days, and they expressed hope that the Taliban will then lay down their arms and be absorbed into the state security forces.

The militants doubt that the promised Islamic law will materialize.

"They (Islamabad) can't implement the Sharia regulation because they are the slaves of America," said Muslim Khan, a Taliban commander and spokesman, in an interview at his Imamderi headquarters just across the Swat River from Mingora. "The generals and the politicians are grabbing money from America to fight the Taliban. They don't care about Islam. They don't care about their country."

Officials estimate that there are no more than 4,000 Taliban in Swat, of whom perhaps 500 are hardcore ideologues. The NWFP government, led by the secular Awami National Party, said it had to sue for peace because the Pakistani army was unwilling to fight in Swat. The army blames the politicians for not giving firm backing and direction to the operation in Swat.

Given the Pakistani military's disastrous campaign in Swat, where locals insist that more people were killed by the army's long-distance shelling than by the Taliban, there's almost no appetite for another military offensive, no matter how brutal life is under the extremists.

"Those who sit in air-conditioned offices and want (a military) operation here should come and see conditions for themselves. People in Peshawar, Islamabad and America don't know what it's like here," said Fazlullah Khan, a lawyer and peace activist in Mingora who's not related to the Swat Taliban chief Fazlullah.

"If the army shows its strength, the Taliban shows its strength, the ones who will die are ordinary people."

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/226/story/67289.html
 
NOBODY can defeat Afghanistan. for one thing, theres nothing to defeat. theres not a fucking thing over there even worth fighting over. Any world leader who commits troops to this farce is a moron.

oh playboy it is something over there worth fighting for. to bad the united states had lost out on it to somebody else.so the us now is forcing the issue.:cool:
 
Unfortunately, many folks don't understand a basic concept in this matter.

The term Taliban is equivalent to the term Hip Hop or Black Power or Liberal.

There is no official application process or membership list.

You can't root out Bloods in L.A. or Disciples in Chicago.

You can't root out a movement or a mind set with bullets and bombs.

Most of those people don't view themselves as Afghans or Pakistanis. They regard themselves tribally and ethnically. They are not going to let some foreign come and govern them.

Moreover, they have decided that their culture works for them and it is better than whatever the West has to offer.
 
Unfortunately, many folks don't understand a basic concept in this matter.

The term Taliban is equivalent to the term Hip Hop or Black Power or Liberal.

There is no official application process or membership list.

You can't root out Bloods in L.A. or Disciples in Chicago.

You can't root out a movement or a mind set with bullets and bombs.

Most of those people don't view themselves as Afghans or Pakistanis. They regard themselves tribally and ethnically. They are not going to let some foreign come and govern them.

Moreover, they have decided that their culture works for them and it is better than whatever the West has to offer.

I have been trying to tell Apple pie eaters that for 8 years man. 8 years later and A lot of Americans probably got type 2 diabetes from eating all this apple pie. Would we want people coming here trying to change us? And to think all this because the Taliban asked for evidence and just didn't want somebody coming into their country. Was that not their right?
 
Three Afghan soldiers who fled to Canadian border feared Taliban at home

In their first interview since being captured and sent to a federal detention center, the three men said they were terrified the Taliban would find and kill them and their families for fighting alongside the U.S. The men were slated to appear before an immigration judge Wednesday.

FOX NEWS
cape2n-1-web.jpg

Major Jan Mohammad Arash, Captain Noorullah Aminyar, Captain Mohammad Nasir Askarzada, the three Afghan military officers who disappeared from Cape Cod, said they feared retribution at home.
The three Afghan army officers who disappeared while attending training camp in Cape Cod said they feared for thier lives, and spent $1,600 to escape to the Canadian border before being turned away.

In their first interview since they were caught Sept. 20, the men told the Boston Globe that they would rather defect from the Afghan army than risk death at home.

“They catch us, they kill us,” said Major Jan Arash, 48, of the Taliban. “They tip those who kill us.”

The men were set to appear in immigration court Wednesday upstate in Batavia, N.Y., Tuesday, and are fighting deportation. They said from a federal detention center that the Taliban was targeting them and their families for fighting alongside U.S. soldiers.

“For me is not important, Canada or America,” said Arash in halting English. “I need just asylum.”

They decided to make their escape during a three-hour off-duty break during a training conference at Camp Edwards last month.

Captain Noorullah Aminyar said the Taliban went to his family’s home in Afghanistan searching for him days after he arrived in Cape Cod Sept. 10. His father told him the disturbing news on the phone.

“Their leaders, they give the orders to kill me,” Aminyar said. “My father told me the story: ‘They will find you and they will kill you.’”

Aminyar said he told Nasir Askarzada, the third soldier who was eventually caught.

They watched a YouTube video of people crossing the border into Canada, and hatched the idea to do the same.

Police and military officials searched for the three soldiers from the Afghanistan National Army who went missing during a training exercise at the base.
STEVEN SENNE/AP
missing-afghan-soldiers.jpg

Police and military officials searched for the three soldiers from the Afghanistan National Army who went missing during a training exercise at the base.
During the break, the three soldiers said they jumped in a taxi, driving to Boston for $230 and then to Niagara Falls for $1,600. Police have claimed that the men first hit a strip club before defecting, but the men deny that.

“Not true,” Arash said.

Just as they were approaching the Rainbow Bridge to get to Canada, they were caught by authorities and sent back.

Askarzada said he has an uncle in Canada who could support him while he seeks asylum — but he still worries for the safety of his family back home.

“I want request of people live in the US, accept me or not,” he said, breaking into sobs. “I worry about my wife. My daughter.”

Trying to compose himself, he added, “Help me.”

Aminyar said the fact that they worked with the U.S. should protect them from severe punishment.

“I hope they will not make the wrong decision about us and they will help us,” he said. “We work with the United States. We fight with them. We fight together, shoulder by shoulder. Now is the time they should help me.”

I was just reading in some 'Men's magazine in the Dr's. office this morning that there are a lot of Afghan Interpreters sought out & worked for the US Army & Marines who were made promises for a better life in America instead of going back over, but are struggling, near eviction and so on. They are trying to apply for jobs, even at places like McDonald's and are being turned away with fearful and hateful remarks because they are Afghan. One guy who has a master's in computer engineering works at a Domino's one in the most dangerous areas in Maryland. Another was told he could get a visa and bring his wife and child over, but they only had 72hrs (instead of the normal 6mo timeframe) to get to San Francisco from Afghanistan, and if they were even 1 second late, they were going to be sent back. After doing all that they were told in helping out the US. They had to borrow 14k to get to America, and when they got here, nobody was there to meet them as promised. After a week and spending the little money he had left, he resorted to begging people on the streets, in his language for food to just feed his daughter. Another homeless guy, who understood him helped him out and he was finally able to be connected to a guy in Virginia who he was also to meet up with. The guys organization, which founded because it consists of many Afghan interpreters who worked for the US, help him and his family get from SF to Virginia. Don't know his plight after that but I was just amazed reading his story and others. Always good to be informed on things that one did not know. Anywho, just wanted to share.
 
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https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/01/afghanistan-attack/551687/

Can the Taliban Be Stopped?
The killing of 95 people in Kabul shows the group's continued ability to strike at the heart of Afghanistan. What does that mean for Donald Trump's strategy there?


Authorities in Afghanistan said at least 95 people were killed and about 158 others wounded on Saturday after Taliban militants drove an ambulance filled with explosives past a police checkpoint in Kabul and detonated the vehicle on a crowded street open mainly to government workers. Authorities expected the death toll to increase as more victims were being brought to hospitals in the Afghan capital.

The audacity of the attack and its carnage—one Western aid worker in the country described it on Twitter as a “massacre”—would be stunning in most circumstances. But Saturday’s suicide bombing, the deadliest attack in Afghanistan in months, came just days after the Taliban targeted a luxury hotel in Kabul popular among Westerners. At least 22 people were killed in that attack, including several Americans.

The Taliban regime was ousted by the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan following the attacks of September 11, 2001. But the group’s resilience and the apparent ease with which it continues to strike at the heart of the Afghan state underscores the challenge its government faces in bringing stability to the country, even as U.S. military support is set to increase under President Donald Trump.

Trump has, reluctantly, sent more U.S. troops to Afghanistan as part of his strategy to bring security to a country that has enjoyed little of it in recent decades. At present, there are 14,000 U.S. troops in the country, with plans to send an additional 1,000. That’s nowhere near the 100,000 U.S. troops that were in Afghanistan at the height of the war on terrorism. Until recently, American troops stationed there worked largely in an advisory capacity. Now, they will reportedly move closer to the front lines in an attempt to degrade the Taliban’s ability to function effectively. They face a formidable challenge: The Taliban now controls about one-third of Afghanistan, more territory than at any point since the U.S.-led invasion.

Trump’s change in policy represents a significant departure for a president who, at one point, called for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Since then, he has let Defense Secretary James Mattis and planners in the Pentagon have final say on troops levels. He has also pressured Pakistan—a country he has accused of giving “safe haven to the terrorists we hunt”—by suspending security assistance to Islamabad. He has also urged India, Pakistan’s rival, to do more.

But Trump has suggested that the hopes of victory in Afghanistan are dim. Last year, he reportedly told his top advisers he thought the United States was “losing” in Afghanistan. According to The Washington Post, he reportedly quoted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi: “Never has a country given so much away for so little in return” as the United States in Afghanistan.

Now, there is yet another security threat to contend with in Afghanistan: the Islamic State, which routinely targets Shia and other Afghan minorities. Joint Afghan-U.S. military operations against the group have succeeding in killing ISIS militants, but not eliminating the group. U.S. military estimates of the number of ISIS fighters in Afghanistan have increased, suggesting the group continues to draw recruits despite its battlefield losses in Syria and Iraq.

Ultimately, Afghans themselves will have to bring peace to Afghanistan. The Taliban must either be defeated—an unlikely outcome at this point—or integrated into the political process. It has little incentive to join that process as it continues to show the Afghan people and the world that it can wage war. The degradation of the group, combined with pressure on its main benefactor, Pakistan, might offer one path toward a political process. But history offers ample, sobering lessons for how that will likely turn out.
 
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