As someone trained in the field of macroeconomics, I think I can explain what happened with Silicon Valley Bank.
A thread
Johnny has a small farm where he grows food to feed his family.
He stores his harvest in a refrigerated storehouse run by Secured Vegetable Barns, Inc. Not only does this protect his crops, but for every bushel he stores at SVB, they actually add one individual vegetable.
It’s not a big incentive, but, whenever he needs to eat, Johnny can go to SVB & withdraw some of the food he grew.
SVB doesn’t charge farmers for storing their crops. They make money a BUNCH of different ways.
They trade vegetables
They sell seeds…
They’ll even loan out 1 bushel to new farmers in exchange for 1.5 bushels of a future harvests
And as long as enough farmers deposit their vegetables at SVB, the farmers can make a withdrawal whenever they need a bushel & SVB will have enough vegetables to feed its employees.
100 years ago, during a big drought, a lot of silo companies folded, not because the farmers couldn’t grow food, but because the silo companies had loaned out too many vegetables and sold too much food.
A lot of farmers even starved because they couldn’t eat the food THEY GREW.
To keep this from happening again, silo regulators created a program. Every silo company gave the Farmers Drought Insurance Company one piece from every 10,000 bushels. So, even if a silo company failed, small farmers who just wanted to grow their food would still be protected
But the FDIC was created to protect the FOOD SUPPLY of small farmers. So they only insured up to 250,000 bushels
Anyone who deposits more than 250,000 bushels is probably SELLING CROPS. They should be diversifying their crop storage
Now here’s the conundrum: Most small farmers don’t store anywhere NEAR 250,000 bushels, so the BIG FARMERS are also subsidizing the operating costs, the insurance, the refrigeration costs for the small farmers.
NONE OF THIS caused SVB to fail. Here’s what did.
Tech crops
Tech crop farmers can take a seed & instantly turn it a vegetable. They don’t have to wait. They don’t even need land! They made vegetables with a computer!
SVB was all in!
They’d take a bushel of Johnny’s crops& loan it to a tech farmer who would take the seeds & make crops
Not only would SVB get 1.5 bushels back in return, they would get a small percentage of all future crops!
Of course, some not all tech croppers can do this. Some tech crops just don’t taste right, so people won’t buy it.
Others have bad algorithms. But even when SVB lost some of Johnny’s harvest to bad tech croppers, it was still lucrative.
And, as long as Johnny could withdraw the food he grew when he needed it, why would he care.
And Johnnys crops were always there.
After all, tech crop farmers made vegetables with computers! Their harvests were UNLIMITED
Johnny profited, too. Instead of 1 additional piece of fruit for every bushel he deposited, he got 2!
So SVB AND JOHNNY were all in on tech crop farming
SVB stopped trading vegetables. They stopped selling seeds. They still needed Johnny to keep his harvest in their silos, because they needed Johnny’s seeds for tech cropping startups.
But SVB was no longer in the crop storage business.
They were tech crop investors
Then a new thing happened:
Tech seeds!
Tech seeders could take regular seed and make a proprietary, uncopiable seeds that grew into a vegetable. You couldn’t plant them in the ground. Only tech farmers could grow a cryptoseeds into a vegetable.
Of course, SVB was all in.
SVB started trading Johnny’s crops to cryptoseeders for double the cryptoseed in return. Tech croppers bought cryptoseeds from SVB for 1.5 bushels in return. Johnny got THREE pieces of vegetable per bushel stored. And, since everybody’s harvest was exponentially bigger…
SVB was back in the crop storage business.
They were back to selling seeds.
They were back to trading vegetables. But now, they were doing it on a MUCH grander scale.
More importantly, EVERYONE’S business was still predicated on Johnny storing his harvest at SVB.
Johnny is the most important part of the equation. Without his harvest, there’d be crops to trade for cryptoseeds, there’s be nothing for tech croppers to copy. There’d be nothing for SVB to store.
But Johnny only needs SVB to store his crops.
He just wants to eat what he grew
Most people are Johnny
87% of banking customers use banks to store money.
Even if they have a mortgage, a car loan, a student loan, investments or a retirement account, MOST people, it’s somewhere other than the place where they store their money
Now here’s the important part
An institution would be CRAZY not to invest in tech. And tech companies invest in crypto because if have unlimited growth potential. Unless of course…
What if no one eats tech fruit?
No one uses crypto as THE THING FOR WHICH IT WAS INVENTED. No one invests in tech companies
SVB stop doing what it was created to do. It was a bank that didn’t bank people’s money
It was a wish investment machine that traded real things for hope .
When people who sell hope figure out no one is buying it, what do you think they’ll do with the crops they stored?
What do you think the people who borrowed all that hope will do with the crops they stored?
Because they’ll ALWAYS be the first to realize that no one is buying what they’re selling.
Here’s the problem with the narrative:
SVB did not fail
Banks are do not exist for keeping the purpose for which 87% of their customers use them. They are not required to store your money or keep it safe. They were not overleveraged. They did not break the law
They exist to give YOUR money to people who have more money than you.
It is legal theft. It’s a scam. It’s the great American finesse
If you think that’s too strong, answer this:
If someone could make food, wouldn’t there be MORE FOOD?
If SVB could actually make money for shareholders, investors and customers…
Why is there LESS MONEY?